As my Spring Break winds down, I thought I'd share some of the photos that I took while in Jupiter, Florida watching the Spring Training games. It was my first experience at Spring Training and it was certainly all that I expected. I took over 100 photos during the three days I was in Florida, most of them of Cardinals players just warming up.

My trip started off pretty badly at first. We had a 7:00 P.M. flight to Atlanta, a small layover, and then a flight from Atlanta to West Palm Beach that took off at 10:00 P.M. Well, shortly before we boarded the first flight, the worker mentioned of a minor crack in the plane that would be fixed by maintenance immediately. Despite knowing the maintenance needed to fix the crack, they had us board the plane at normal time. We ended up waiting in the plane for an hour and a half before we took off for Atlanta.

By the time we landed in Atlanta, our previous flight had already been taken off. My dad had pre-paid for a rental car and hotel in West Palm Beach starting Wednesday night. The airline (Delta) gave us free tickets (which weren't really free), meal vouchers (... $6.00... Have you seen airport food prices??!!), and a free hotel stay (which also wasn't technically free since my dad was paying for the hotel visit in West Palm Beach).

So we woke up at 6:00 am, ate at IHOP using our meal vouchers (IHOP ain't cheap apparently), went to the airport and ended up in West Palm Beach at 10:00 am. We picked up our rental car, and thinking the game was at 12:00 because the online tickets said 12:00, went straight to Roger Dean Stadium. We were earlier than expected and arrived before the gates opened.

And then we got to our seats literally right next to the bullpen where the pitcher warms up. What follows is a barrage of pictures of pitchers in mid-throwing motion, players signing autographs, and players warming up for the game. All were taken by my phone which had pretty good picture, but it was sunny so it may not be the best quality, though for a phone it's pretty amazing to me.

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This post is a continuation from Hall of War: Part 1. If you haven't read that yet, I suggest you do so so as to better understand what I'm talking about. I'm just going to jump right in starting where I left off at leftfield. If need be, at the bottom of this post is a primer of what WAR/PA and Peak are in the case I'm describing.

Left Field

No Doubt

Ted Williams (.0142 WAR/PA; 11.58 Peak) confirms his status as one of the best players of all time. He was actually a below average fielder in his lifetime, but his hitting was godly. He had a .493 career wOBA - yes you read that right. He had a 20.6% BB rate for his career. He walked once every five plate appearances. His slash line of .344/.482/.634 puts Albert to shame. He had 524 homers in his career for good measure. He had 11 seasons above .500 wOBA and one season over .600 wOBA.

I'll jump to the bottom of the pile with Goose Goslin (.00732; 6.98) of the Washington Senators. He managed a .403 wOBA with above average defense for his career. Ed Delahanty (.00855; 7.64), who retired in 1903, batted .346 for his career to the tune of a .428 wOBA. Then there's Carl Yastrzemski (.0077; 9.3), who had a long career with nearly 14,000 career plate appearances. Despite having a BABIP lower than .285 for his last nine seasons, he still managed to be wildly productive thanks to his 13.2% BB rate. Yaz was an extremely good fielder, worth +185 over his career, including above average defense at the tail end of his career.

Willie Stargell (.00786; 6.96) qualifies even though he was considerably worse than I thought. Obviously, that's not anything scientific but his .360 OBP and 475 homers belong there. Al Simmons (.00825; 7.54), who played for seven different teams between 1924 and 1944, had a .404 wOBA thanks largely to a career .334 average. He was also an above average fielder for the entirety of his career. Ralph Kiner (.00854; 7.36) had a short, but great career. He started in the league at the age of 24 and received 579 plate appearances with a .367 wOBA. He ended his career with 390 plate appearances in 1955 at the age of 33 with a .370 wOBA. Kiner had a 16.2% BB rate to help sustain his very low career BABIP of .264.

Then there's leadoff man Rickey Henderson (.00855; 8.78) who stole 1406 bases at a 80.8% success rate. He also had a .386 wOBA with +62.9 fielding over his career. He became an apparently awful fielder for the last years of his career, but the beginning he was one of the best fielders in the league.

Last but not least is The Man. Stan Musial (.0111; 10.2) was the greatest Cardinals player of all time. He had an amazing 5.5% K rate which helped him to a .331 average with a .320 BABIP. He walked 12.6% of the time helping himself to a .417 OBP. He hit 475 homers as well in nearly 13,000 plate appearances. He finished his career with a .436 wOBA and above average fielding.

I don't know if my Hall would let him in or not but Shoeless Joe Jackson (.0118; 8.8) was an amazing player. It's unfortunate he made such a bad decision. Sherry Magee (.00879; 7.22) is the only non-Hall "No Doubt" player this time. He had six seasons above 6 WAR in his career and a .385 wOBA in the early 1900s was good for a +138 wRC+. Despite this, he never received more than 1% of the vote.

Borderline - Yes

Jesse Burkett (.00758 WAR/PA; 6.56 Peak), who retired in 1905, is an easy yes with a career .409 wOBA. He had five seasons of 6.2 or greater for his career as well. Fred Clarke (.00831; 6.28), who played for the Pirates most of his career in the Deadball era, had above average fielding (+91 in career) with above average hitting (135 wRC+). Joe Kelley (.00708; 6.3), another player who played in the Deadball era, hit for a career .406 wOBA largely thanks to a .317 average and a 11.2% BB rate.

Zack Wheat (.007; 6.02), who played for the Brooklyn Robins in the early 1900s, is extremely borderline and barely made it. He had above average hitting (129 wRC+) and above average fielding (+54). He didn't hit many homers or doubles, but was a triples machine with 172 triples. He stole 205 bases, but it's unknown how many times he got caught. Billy Williams (.00663; 6.92) is in the same position and while his .376 wOBA and below average fielding didn't blow me away, his eight seasons above 5 WAR did the trick.

I'm going to have to barely let in Joe Medwick (.00691; 6). The problem is that his fifth best season was 4.7 so he doesn't have the ideal peak. However, it's hard to ignore a .394 wOBA (131 wRC+) and above average fielding (+45). Plus, he's a Cardinal. (Disclaimer: I was fully prepared to keep him out, but the combo of fielding and bat proved too much. I did not let him in because he was a Cardinal)

There are two players not currently in the Hall who I'd let in as a borderline candidate. One of them, Tim Raines(.00713; 6.7) is inexplicably out while Jim Rice is in, and the other is less known. Bob Johnson (.00825; 6.24) has a career .409 wOBA (134 wRC+) with average defense. He had basically no consideration for the Hall despite this. I think this was due to his low homer total at corner outfield (288) and his biggest value was in his walk rate at 13.2%. Raines, meanwhile had a 134 wRC+ while stealing 808 bases at an 84.7% rate.

Borderline - No

Cardinals and Reds player Chick Hafey (.00692 WAR/PA; 5.1 Peak) doesn't make it despite a .405 career wOBA. He had a really short career as well to boot with only 5,113 plate appearances. He accumulated a total of 35.4 WAR over his career. He's a borderline player without a peak or longevity basically.

Heine Manush (.00587; 5.78) is all peak, no productivity. His peak is pretty weak as well. While he did have five seasons over 5 WAR, his overall career line was less impressive. Jim Rice (.00619; 6.4) gets a bad rap I suppose since his HOF case is kind of solid on traditional grounds. He's not really that close to my ideal Hall however. Lastly, Jimmy Sheckard (.00713; 6.13), with 65 career WAR, barely misses. Fun fact: He has 58 career homers and a .378 slugging percentage as a left fielder.

What the fuck

Sigh... Lou Brock (.00475 WAR/PA; 5.3). This wasn't so much Cardinals bias as a misunderstanding of how stolen bases affect a player's value. He's not even close to the level of Hall of Fame players. I'd say he's fortunate given the time period he played in to make the HOF. Like Joe Posnanski says, making the HOF can sometimes be all about timing. Jim O'Rourke (.0057; 3.92) is a puzzling selection. He had a .311 batting average, but his .359 wOBA with below average defense is a pretty big travesty. Plus, O'Rourke literally has no peak.

Luis Gonzalez (.00564; 6.44), who was worth 59.4 WAR over his career and is a super nice guy for what it's worth, wasn't close to the Hall. However, he is better than I would have thought.

Future Eligibles

Barry Bonds (.01334 WAR/PA; 11.68), obviously, would go in "No Doubt." He was a wonderfully amazing defender early in his career before he took steroids and his shoulders became bigger than most people's faces. He also had a .439 wOBA for his entire career with 762 homers. Are we really going to leave him out of the Hall and let in Jim fucking Rice?

Manny Ramirez also appears destined for the Hall unless the voting committee is still on their moral high ground. He had a .417 career wOBA although he's a borderline Hall of Fame player because he was so bad at defense, whether that was due to bad range or laziness we'll never know. (Though probably combination of the two)

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5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

For years, the Baseball Writers Association of America has voted in players of multiple positions based on this criteria. They have carefully look at the player's stats, judged if they thought this player was Hall of Fame caliber, made sure the player never cheated, that the player was always being fair no matter the situation, and that the player was a good person. What a bunch of bullshit.

Unlike the BBWAA, I'm not going to lie and act like I'm grading a player's integrity, sportsmanship, or character since many men in the Hall are racists, cheaters, and huge assholes. I'm just going to grade his ability to play the game of baseball. Steroid users are also welcome into the Hall since eventually someone who took steroids but was never caught will get in. It's basically impossible to know whether a player did or did not take steroids. It's also incredibly ridiculous to leave out an entire era just because of that as well.

So I'm going to attempt to make my vision of the Hall of Fame come true through this fanpost. I'm a small Hall of Fame fan so I'm hoping to weed out not only the atrocious choices (Bill Mazeroski...), but also players who deserve to be in the actual Hall of Fame just not my ideal one.

Since I have such a mass quantity of players and haven't seen most of these players play, I'll largely be basing it off of a player's wins above replacement. However, I've always had issue with people who say "This player has been worth 60 WAR, he should be considered." It really means nothing without any context. Does the player have a peak? How many plate appearances did he have (This is the part usually glossed over that bothers me)? For example, a player worth 60 WAR who had 12,000 plate appearances does not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. That same 60 WAR over 7,000 plate appearances though? Yeah that's a Hall of Fame player. (It depends on why it's low of course. Did they come up late in the majors? Retire early? Have huge injury problems?)

Before I started deciding on who to let in and who to let out, I wanted to know how the current average Hall of Fame player performed. So in order to grade players with different WARs, I took their WAR/PA figure to see who performed the best, position-by-position.

Position	PAs	WAR	WAR/PA
C	7082	55.7	.0077
1B	8840	72.4	.00819
2B	8684	75.5	.00869
3B	9326	74.5	.00799
SS	9249	69.7	.00753
LF	9596	75.1	.00783
CF	8775	78.9	.00889
RF	9696	76	.00784
Total	8906	72.2	.00811

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Everybody knows how Shelby Miller is doing in Springfield thus far unless of course you completely ignore the minor leagues, but I bet most don't know what Oscar Tavares or Joe Kelly or Nick Longmire are doing.  Nearly every prospect has played at least a month of baseball to this point which is not necessarily relevant.  However, a month can tell you a few things.  It can dampen the shine of the prospect (Robert Stock?!) or raise your expectations (Martinez!).  

So I will go through the Community's Top 20 prospects (21 technically) and show their stats.  For pitchers, I will use IPs, ERA, K/9, BB/9, FIP, tRA, BABIP against, and LOB%.  For hitters, I will use PAs, batting average, HRs, on base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBAr, isolated power (ISO), BB%, and BABIP.  The stats were compiled via Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, and Statcorner (I used their park and batted ball adjusted wOBAr instead of fangraphs wOBA).

1. Shelby Miller - 20-years-old - #13 overall prospect by BA in 2011 - RHP

Palm Beach: 53 IP, 2.89 ERA, 13.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.82 FIP, 2.06 tRA, .330 BABIP, 70.5% LOB

Springfield: 20 IP, 1.35 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.05 FIP, 3.63 tRA, .333 BABIP, 83.3% LOB

Obviously, Miller is right on schedule.  Actually, ahead of schedule might be more appropriate.  Miller dominated Palm Beach in every facet even getting unlucky with a .330 BABIP.  He had a 14.7% line drive rate and only a 35.3% groundball rate.  Usually groundball pitchers get hit with the BABIP disease, but Miller is not exactly a Dave Duncan protege.  Also, a fun stat to know is that Shelby Miller induced a swinging strikeout in 25.7% of the batters he faced.   For the record, the league average is a little over 11% for starters.  Dominated.

At Springfield, he's been doing just as well as in Palm Beach.  He started off shaky in his first two starts allowing hard contact and a high BABIP.  But in his last start he improved his tRA from 5.23 all the way to 3.63.  He is doing so well, look for him to be a possible #1 pitching prospect in all of baseball.

2. Carlos Martinez - 19-years-old - #52 overall prospect by Keith Law in 2011 - RHP

Quad Cities Stats: 32.2 IP, 2.48 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.34 FIP, 2.51 tRA, .307BABIP, 79.8% LOB

The $1.5 million dollar man has so far lived up to his billing.  We already knew he had electric stuff, which was good enough for Keith Law to barely leave out of the Top 50 despite never seeing him pitch.  His stuff has translated well in America.  It's a shame he had to toil in the Dominican Summer League for all of last year because he was so out of place.  He had a 0.76 ERA, 1.79 FIP, and a 5.57 K/B ratio.  

Statcorner reveals a bit more about the type of pitcher he could become.  Dave Duncan, to say the least, would be pleased with his results (and probably is depending on how much he follows farm).  Martinez has a groundball rate of 63.2%, a flyball rate of 19.7%, and a line drive rate of 10.5%.  The main thing is that Martinez's stuff has done what we expected with a swinging strikeout rate of 23.4% per plate appearance.

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I admit I haven't been able to follow the draft because I had other obligations and I'm extremely happy that I did miss it.  All that anticipation over who the Rams will draft and then my heart would get deflated at another need ignored.  I'm all for picking the best player available - to a certain extent.  But the Rams took that mantra to the extreme the past three days.

In my honest opinion, they ignored all but two true needs.  They addressed their defensive back depth with a safeties and a cornerback drafted between the 5th-7th rounds.  They also addressed the need to have another pass rusher for when James Hall retired.  That's it.  Those are the only two needs they addressed.  Make a list of Top 10 needs and they addressed exactly zero Top 5.

They needed a backup running back, a starting outside linebacker, a starting offensive guard, a starting safety, and #1 wide receveiver.  They did exactly zero of these things.  And if anyone wants to convince me that the 5th round safety will become a starter, well let's just say that you have too much faith in the front office.  Or that Greg Salas or Austin Pettis will be #1 wide receivers.  I went into the draft will the full intention of giving the front office the benefit of the doubt.  But I expected them to fill their needs not clog the roster.  

I'm going to go through the picks and act like it is my first time seeing them.  Then I will tell you why I hate it or love it.

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Honestly, this position is so unresolved I don't even know where to start.  Heck, how do you define what exactly we need?  I really wish GM Billy Devaney could have just sucked it up and paid OJ Atogwe $11 million this year.  Let's be honest: that money isn't getting spent to better use than using it to keep Atogwe.  That's just a fact.  Hey, and if I end up being wrong, then we still don't have an elite safety barring some miracle happening.

Releasing Atogwe, while most likely a calculated move to lower his price, did cast a shadow of doubt upon a previously set position.  While the merits of Atogwe's actual on-field performance are in question, we pretty much knew that we would get a good safety at worst barring injury.  Now, we have two strong safeties in James Butler and Craig Dahl plus a young Darian Stewart.  With Atogwe, this position was a good strength.  Now it's a position in serious doubt.

I said it with Atogwe, I'll stick with the statement without him.  Craig Dahl is an adequate to slightly below average starting strong safety who deserves one more year to prove he is a good one.  I don't think he is to be honest.  But we have bigger fish to fry right now.  Is it really that dire of a situation that a soon-to-be 26-year-old hard-hitting safety needs to be cast off?

Anyway, the position that I am worried about moreso is free safety.  I don't want Dahl or James Butler playing out of position and being average at best and terrible at worst.  I want a player who is young and will probably play as well as or even worse than Butler/Dahl there, but at least has potential and the growing pains eventually make him a better player in the future.  Is Darian Stewart that player?  If only it were that easy.  

That player could be in this very draft and could very well hit the ground running via Patrick Chung (of course a Patriots pick - also heavily criticized at time).  If I were a betting man, I would not count on it.  But nearly ever GM is graded by their diamond in the rough picks.  It's easy to pick Sam Bradford first overall, but can he draft a starter in the 4th or later. 

I say this for two reasons.  One, if we have a diamond in the rough, I'm guessing it comes through this position.  Two, we can ill afford to draft a safety higher than the 4th round given our other problems.  Those two things only further remind us that dropping Atogwe may have been an unnecessary risk.  However, what's done is done and we must move on.  On to the prospects...

1. Rahim Moore, UCLA - 6'0, 202 - 12 GS, 77 tackles, INT, 4 PDs - 21-years-old - FS

Why get him - great ball skills (10 INTs as sophomore), instinctive, very athletic, good speed (4.53 Combine), experienced (37 consecutive starts), aggressive in down-field pursuit, times leaps well, respected team leader

Why not get him - less than ideal size, only average bulk, not reliable open-field tackler, prone to overrunning plays, only has one elite season ('09), takes questionable angles to football

Summary - As I stated above, I don't expect the Rams to draft a safety any higher than the 4th round.  Moore kind of reminds me of OJ with his ball-hawking skills and leadership (not to mention there's a debate on how elite he is).

Projected Round - 2nd

2. Quinton Carter, Oklahoma - 6'1, 208 - 13 GS, 96 tackles, 4 INTs, 5 PDs - 22-years-old - FS

Why get him - often gets to receiver as or before the ball arrives, athletic, has speed to stay with receivers down sideline, excellent closing speed, good hands (8 career INTs), solid tackler, exceptional leader

Why not get him - needs to improve using his hands to knock receivers off routes, lacks great strength, may get eaten up by elusive runners because of aggressiveness, has gotten penalized for late hits

Summary - I may take back what I said before: Carter is extremely intriguing.  I've always liked players whose main weakness was their aggressiveness.  Carter is also reportedly good against pass, run, and can play deep center field.

Projected Round - 2nd-3rd

3. DeAndre McDaniel, Clemson - 6'0, 217 - 13 GS, 75 tackles, 4 INTs, 4 PDs - 23-years-old - SS 

Why get him - very good instincts, shows ability to make plays beyond line of scrimmage, reliable open-field tackler, quick feet and good balance, does nice job of recognizing routes, very good vision, quick active hands (15 career INTs)

Why not get him - doesn't change directions fluidly, charged with aggravated assault in '08, can be fooled by play-action

Summary - McDaniel seems like a good pick, but I'm a little hesitant on someone who can't cover whole field and does not change directions well.  Those two weaknesses are most of what a safety needs to do.  On another note, his mother reportedly got arrested over 50 times so to be where he is today is a modern-day miracle.  

Projected Round - 3rd

4. Tyler Sash, Iowa - 6'0, 210 - 13 GS, 79 tackles, 2 INTs, TD, 2 PDs - 22-years-old - SS

Why get him - instinctive, reads keys to sniff out screens and runs, good athleticism, takes good angles to tackle runners from behind, has good strength to get off receiver blocks, strong upper-body, vocal leader

Why not get him - overaggressive and will overrun plays, bites hard on play-action, will not catch many receivers from behind, could draw flags with the contact he uses to defend TEs

Summary - I know I said I like overaggressive guys, but Sash seems to be too extreme.  He also seems like a guy who might just barely get by with his tools in the NFL.  

Projected Round - 3rd round

5. Robert Sands, West Virginia - 6'4, 217 - 13 GS, 53 tackles, 2 sacks, FF, INT - 21-years-old - FS

Why get him - has speed to go sideline-to-sideline, can handle TEs in man coverage, long arms, good ball skills (6 career INTs), strong, aggressive against the run, looks for big shoulder hit

Why not get him - height could actually be disadvantage when tries to tackle in space, slow and high backpedal, gets moved by QB eyes too easily, does not change direction quickly

Summary - It appears Sands has gotten the interest of the Rams and TST (7 stories about him), but I'm a little hesitant to use anything higher than  5th round pick on him. (For what it's worth, WF has him from anywhere between the 4th and 6th so that very well might happen.)

Projected Round - 4th round

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I don't quite remember the talk before the NFL Draft last year, but I feel like this year almost has more absolute-must acknowledge positions than last year.  Defensive tackle is an absolute must acknowledge position, because the best player will be 34 and everybody else not named Fred Robbins is not very good.  Not to knock our 34-year-old, but to expect him to duplicate what was a career year is just preposterous. 

In an age of Nkadamong Suh, defensive tackle is becoming ever important.  The Rams don't need a Suh-caliber player, but they do need at least a capable starter and possibly even another potential starter.  I see Robbins as getting older and likely declining.  In other words, he will eventually have to be replaced and rookie defensive tackles don't typically make that much of an impact.  So it is better to get ahead now while he is still a worthy player.

Of course, I've always wondered about the importance of defensive tackle given their role.  As a quick (and unprofessional) study, I started by looking at the top DT (I settled on the NYT rankings in April 2010).  The average amount of wins the Top 10 got in the 2011 season was 8.2 wins.  That seems oddly average for what is known as the top group of DTs.  I bet if I did a similar study for QBs, WRs, LBs then they would average more wins.  Also worth noting six of the teams missed the playoffs and none of them won it all (You mean Johnny Jolly isn't elite?).  Last year, the starting DTs for the Saints included Ryan Pickett.  Point being, I know I should value getting a new DT, but it isn't as important to the team's success as people think.

I kind of just contradicted myself there if only to prepare not addressing this position seriously.  I hope we get a great player in the draft, but I'll go back to their relative unimportance in the grand scheme.  

1. Marcell Dareus, Alabama - 6'3, 319 - 33 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 pass deflections 

Why get him - He ran a 4.92 in the Combine at 319 pounds - The next best weight to run below a 4.95 weighed 305, bull rusher always a threat to get to the QB, handles double teams, can play DE and NT as well, disrupts plays, good agility, good initial quickness of snap, can anchor a pile and collapse the pocket

Why not get him - His arm length is a little less than ideal, character concerns as he accepted money from an agent, tendency to get too upright

Summary - I don't know about you, but his weaknesses are the definition of nitpicking.  Who doesn't accept money from an agent nowadays, especially one with a hard family life?  His size and speed plus the fact that he can fit in any system will make him long gone by the time the Rams get to him.

Projected Round - Top 5

2. Nick Fairley, Auburn - 6'3, 297 - 56 tackles, 12 sacks, INT

Why get him - He ran a 4.82 Combine time, by far best among DTs, long arms, explosive and quick off snap, good footwork, plays with mean streak, makes most plays behind line, very good hand strength, good closing burst, good effort in pursuit

Why not get him - He didn't qualify academically at Auburn at first, work ethic is questionable, is known as a dirty player, has had one productive season, needs to improve lower body strength

Summary - He has a few too many question marks to be above Dareus in this rankings.  Not saying a team will not pick him above Dareus, just that all of his weaknesses are legitimate concerns while Dareus are more minor.  He reminds me of Albert Haynesworth - that's a compliment and an insult at the same time.

Projected Round - Top 10

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(Bumped to the front page by Van Ram...exhaustive look at the guards in this year's draft)

Usually, it is considered a successful season if an offensive lineman is able to play and start in 16 games.  That's about the point where the guards on the Rams last year, Adam Goldberg and Jacob Bell, stop with their positive traits.  They started 16 eventful games - for the wrong reason - in making one of the best running backs in the league have his worst season by far.  And while Steven Jackson is fighting through injuries and declining, the guards are a large reason for his statistical flop last season.

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After a long break from my last post, I will begin my Spring Break with a new post.  Also, I hope to get the next three positions done (including this post) before my Spring Break ends so you can probably expect somewhat of a rash of these posts in the next week.  

Wide receiver is quite possibly the most confusing position as of right now going into the 2011 season.  With the top two receivers in the draft likely gone by the time they reach the Rams and the lockout probably preventing the Rams from getting one through free agency, it is confusing as to what they should do.  I am of the opinion if we draft a receiver, then he must at least show #1 potential.  Otherwise, no thanks.  I'll let myself explain why we need a new receiver from my Looking at the Rams Needs post earlier in the year.

The receiver on their team with the most potential has had five knee surgeries.  The leading receiver in yards had just 8.1 YPC, quite literally last among qualified receivers.  Another is the second worst receiver in the league according to DYAR (via Football Outsiders).  The receiver who was probably, statistically the best, improved his catch rate by 9%... and it's still below average.  The two missing receivers missed all but two games the whole year. 

So if you somehow disagree with me on this one, you are alone.  There is no denying a need for a new receiver.  It's a little less clear if we can and should do anything about it.  Without further ado, here are the top prospects:

1. AJ Green, Georgia - 6'4, 212 - 8 games, 57 receptions, 848 yards, 9 TDs

Why get him - Where to start?  He's 6'4 and fast, the kind of combo that makes scouts think Larry Fitzgerald; amazing athleticism, great hands, elusive and good after the catch, absolutely dominated the SEC, has a propensity to make "Did you see that?" catches

Why not get him - Wouldn't prevent me from getting him, but he did serve a 4 game suspension - while a very minor offense, it could still say something about his character

Summary - I'm not a fan of trading up, but I won't complain if we trade up and get him.  He's jaw-dropping and has been amazing ever since his freshman year.  His highlight videos rival Calvin Johnson's highlight videos.  Yeah... that's right, just threw out a Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson NFL pro comparison.

Projected Pick - Top 5

2. Julio Jones, Alabama - 6'3, 220 - 12 games, 78 receptions, 1,133 yards, 7 TDs

Why get him - Blazing fast with 4.39 40 time at Combine, tremendous ball control and body control, great after the catch, tough and plays through injuries, plays in a pro-style offense at Alabama so a transition to the NFL should be seamless

Why not get him - Well, for a potential #1, he doesn't show up in every game (4 games with under 50 yards), the injuries he has played through could make him a potential injury problem in the future, inconsistent hands as he drops catchable balls

Summary - Thanks to his great Combine performance, we likely won't get him either.  Unlike Green, I do not want to trade up to get him though.  If we have to trade up and I'm opposed to doing it, then go for it all and get Green.  However, I wouldn't kick him out of bed either if he was an option (Uh... I mean as a player...  on an NFL team)

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Last year the Rams went 7-9, but something that remained from the 1-15 season was the awful play of the outside linebackers.  The position was manned by players who we probably wouldn't know if they played on different teams. 

Despite having a defensive line that had three players who had a good argument for the Pro Bowl, the Rams ranked 17th overall in Adjusted Line Yards defensively (per FO).  Delving futher, the Rams ranked 28th overall in 2nd level yards and 29th overall in open field yards.  Considering that James Lauranitis is their MLB, it is obvious who is to blame for those low rankings.  

But anybody who watches the Rams with a prick of football knowledge could have told you that our OLBs suck.  Considering Chad Greenway recently signed his franchise tag, they likely will not get one via free agency.  Unfortunately every other great OLB did this as well with LaMarr Woodley doing it, Tambi Hali doing it, David Harris doing it.  Lastly, James Anderson was RFA tendered by the Panthers which could be invalid but likely means the Panthers will be getting him back leaving Thomas Davis the best available OLB option who was injured for all of 2010. 

So to say that the draft is the only way to go is not necessarily true.  However, the draft is the only way to go if the Rams want a franchise starter.  And most of the free agent options out there have as much risk of being a bust as draft prospects, but with incredibly lower upside.

I'm ranking these players based off of where they are expected to fall not my opinion.  That makes it easier on me where I can just put what I think and the reports on him and you can tell where this guy will probably be picked.  

Last note I want to make.  There are more than a few prospects who are listed as DE/OLB on Walter Football which makes it nearly impossible to grade this position.  Most of the time, those prospects I list at DE because if we drafted them, they'd become defensive ends. (Like Aldon Smith for instance)  I also switch a few ILB (According to WF) to OLB for the simple reason that other sites have those players as OLB (Greg Jones for instance has a scouting report listed as an OLB but is graded with ILBs for some reason)

1. Von Miller, Texas A&M

Why get him - He's a sack specalist with 18 sacks the past two years; If he touches you, you cease to be moving; He runs a 4.46 40 yard dash and more importantly shows it on the field; leader with good work ethic; can cover the whole field; good football IQ

Why not to get him - Well, he is a bit small for a 4-3 OLB; It's a little disconcerting that his highlight videos are 80% of him sacking the QB - Where's the rest of his game? - Walter Football calls him scrictly a 3-4 OLB

Summary - Well, if I were Billy Devaney, I'd think long and hard about getting him despite his limitations, however, it looks like that decision is not going to have to be made with recent talk that he may be picked second overall.

Projected - Top 10 Pick

2. Akeem Ayers, UCLA

Why get him - extremely versatile as he played OLB, DE, and MLB at UCLA, one of the most athletic players in the draft, good in coverage

Why not get him - I have almost nothing positive to say watching his game tapes.  Let's go through the list: Gets blocked fairly easily; seems to pad stats by letting blocker block him and then running backwards to tackle a runner with 4+ yards, doesn't make many plays in the backfield, invisible in some games

Summary - I went from a "I don't really want him because UCLA fans don't believe in him" to "Don't get him with a 2nd round pick" - He seems to get burned almost as much as he makes plays and he's small and his Combine 40 was slow at 4.80 (He's not one of those game fast players either)

Projected Pick - 1st round

Continue reading this post »

Well, with the Super Bowl behind us, I think it's never too early to get a head start on the off-season.  I'm going to retain the same optimism I am with Pujols and his future contract - whether it be with or without the Cards - as I am with the NFL avoiding a lockout.  The season is gonna happen until it doesn't.  Understand?

The first step Billy Devaney has is looking at his current roster and deciding what he needs and what he doesn't need. To do that, he needs to look at each individual position and determine whether that position is filled 1) long-term 2) short-term or nobody's favorite 3) neither.

One category that I did not list that is important is depth.  You could have your long-term filled, however, if he doesn't have a semi-adequate backup then there are serious problems if and when your starter gets injured (and this being the NFL, it's almost inevitable).  Here's the positions with their stated needs and their importance.

Quarterback

Well this is a tough one... however, it still has its issues.  Sam Bradford is going to be great and is the long-term starter for at least six more years so that is NOT the issue of course.  The issue is who plays if he gets hurt.  Hopefully not A.J. Feeley or Thaddeus Lewis.  Feeley is terrible, old, and hasn't played an actual game in a few years.  Lewis is an ideal #3 QB in my opinion, but I don't want to rely on him if Bradford is hurt.

Status: Long-term

Problem: Depth

Solution: Sign an experienced QB (Think: Byron Leftwich behind Ben Roethlisberger)

Running Back

Steven Jackson is more than a good starting running back in the NFL right now, but he is on the decline right now.  His YPC dropped from 4.4 to 3.8, his yards dropped by nearly 200, and he had 320+ carries for the second straight year.  He has now six straight years with at least 235 carries with three of them over 320.  He will be turning 28 next year.  He is not quite done, but he is close enough to worry.  He is the very definition of a short-term starter right now.  The Rams need to release all of their running backs (except Jackson) and start from scratch.  I think they need to draft a running back between Rounds 2-4 and sign a backup off free agency.  I am just tired of watching Darby and Co. do nothing and think they have already proven they are worthless.

Status: Short-term

Problem: No Replacement; Depth

Solution: Draft RB on Day 2; Sign Backup or FA (Think Brian Westbrook with the 49ers)

Wide Receiver

The Rams lack a #1 receiver and or anything resembling one.  The receiver on their team with the most potential has had five knee surgeries.  The leading receiver in yards had just 8.1 YPC, quite literally last among qualified receivers.  Another is the second worst receiver in the league according to DYAR (via Football Outsiders).  The receiver who was probably, statistically the best, improved his catch rate by 9%... and it's still below average.  The two missing receivers missed all but two games the whole year.  Not exactly an inspiring group to say the least.  The problem of course is that - in my opinion - the five receivers I just mentioned all have a case that they are #2 or #3 receivers.  So if they don't get a #1, they have the same exact issues as they did last year just with more of them.

Status: Short-term/neither

Problem: #1 receiver; a reliable receiver

Solution: Draft a receiver in the 1st round or sign a matter-of-fact #1 in free agency.

Continue reading this post »

I'll start off with the wide receivers, since they were the poster boy for the Rams offensive failures (slightly beating out the guards IMO).  Get the fuck off my team already has two receivers penciled out of the voting system: Laurent Robinson (2nd worst receiver in the league) in the shit list and Danny Amendola in the absolved list.  Everyone agreed on those two pretty easily so let's continue to the rest of the receivers.

I might have to make this into two parts unfortunately since there are so many questionable receivers.  Let's start with the Rams two healthy (sorry Avery and Clayton) AND playing (sorry Mardy) receivers before we get into their game.  

Brandon Gibson

Reason to be on the shit list - Well, at his absolute best, he's probably an average #2 receiver and a good #3 receiver.  At his worst, he deserves to be watching NFL games on Sunday.  I forgive you if you think that's pretty unappealing.  If the Rams get a #1, then the Rams will have two receivers (not counting the #1) with more upside than Gibson and one who is a slot receiver.

Reason to not be: I mainly posted my argument here.  I guess that reveals where I stand?  Anyway, the improvement he made in the 2nd half was incredible and while he liking isn't going to catch balls at a 65% rate, his season finished at 58% and you have to wonder if he's actually better than that.  

Denario Alexander

Reason to be on shit list - Oh wait, I thought you said healthy receivers?  The guy has had five knee surgeries and he can barely afford to get another one.  He also only had a 54% catch rate and dropped two unbelievably bad long balls from Sam against Seattle.  

Reason not to be: Check out these stats - or this video - or his first TD catch - The term "high upside" was created for guys like these.  He may have invented it in fact.  If those videos haven't convinced you of his upside (if not I suspect you don't watch Rams games very often), then he's 6'5.  

Needless to say, I think everyone knows where I stand.  Let them both come back next year.  Alexander was our only positive receivers according to FO (although it appears in inordinate amount of weight is put on YPC which is why Danny's negative) and Gibson would have been positive if not for his awful start.  I just think these guys scream potential and it's going to take a bad season to give up on them. 

To make this off-season more fun and get TST more united (I would assume), I am going to start a series that everyone can enjoy.  Ladies and gentleman, I hereby present a proposition: to make a "Get the fuck of MY team" list.  Basically, I will have a weekly fan post with a player's name presented.  I will make a poll if they should be on the list.  

Yes and no would be the options.  The vote has to be clearly in the majority of putting a player on the list however.  I'll put the random percentage at 60/40.  Basically, if the player receives 60% or more of the votes to be on the list, then he's on the fucking list.  The list is death for players as Billy Devaney obviously obssesses over this blog and will immediately cut the people on the list.  It's science.

Anyway, to start it off, I'll present potential candidates to be on the list.  If ANYONE objects to a candidate going on the list now and feels they should get a fair shake (via poll), then I will remove them from the list.  Basically, I'll present a whole bunch of candidates below and if you have any doubt AT all about him getting put on the list, then say so in the comments.  Then he will later be re-evaluated by the whole of TST via poll.

WR Laurent Robinson, LG Jacob Bell, CB Kevin Dockery, OLB Na'il Diggs, OLB Bryan Kehl

Those are my personal shitlist automatic candidates.  Anyone else that I did not say I feel should have a chance.  For instance, Adam Goldberg is a bad guard but a great depth lineman so I felt he was misused.  I guess you could make the argument that if he's off the team, they have no pressure to misuse him.  And Vobora has his moments.  

Kehl does nothing, Diggs is below average and old AND injured, Dockery just plain sucks, Bell is overpriced and bad, and Robinson can't catch.  I have other reasons to assume some players are valuable (mostly age and price-related), but not enough time.  

And to counter, here's the absolved.  The guys who will never go on the list.  ANYBODY who feels a certain person should not be automatically absolved say so in the comments again.  Then they will get re-evaluated at a later date.  The poll reveals all.  Anyway, the absolved list below:

QB Sam Bradford, RB Steven Jackson, WR Danny Amendola, K Josh Brown, P Donnie Jones, LT Rodger Saffold, DE Chris Long, MLB James Lauranitis, S OJ Atogwe, CB Ron Bartell, CB Bradley Fletcher, DT Fred Robbins

That's the only players I would say EVERYONE agrees should remain on the team.  That's not very good in the grand scheme.  Anyway, there are certain players I'm pretty sure would be objected to by like Ramchop or Everett and I'll make a quick poll for THIS shitlist.

No one else is safe.  Anybody who is not absolved (and also not in the poll), comment below why you think he should be and if no one has any objections, he will be put on the "absolved list."  I cannot stress enough that just ONE person speaking out will allow for a fair vote to take place.  

Continue reading this post »

I am making this post, because of the reaction TST had when it found out that it had just Steven Jackson making the Pro Bowl.  Now, I love the Rams as much as anyone, but if I'm being an unbiased viewer, then I should be happy that even Jackson got in.  Because the Rams deserved zero.  I know this won't go over very well, but I thought it was necessary.

Deserved is a strong word I guess.  If Fred Robbins or Donnie Jones got in, nobody would complain like how Jay Ratliff of the Cowboys got in.  I should say that they weren't the second or third best of their position going by stats.  Now don't take this as too much of an insult to the Rams.  They have above average players at QB, RB, LT, C, DT, DE, MLB, CB, and S, but none of them are the best.  Hell, some of them are even "elite."  They just didn't perform the best of anybody in the league.  I will attempt to convince you by analyzing the positions (with more effort put on what appeared at first glance to be snubs).

QB

Actual Pro Bowlers - Michael Vick (3,018 passing yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs, 62.6% CP; 676 rushing yards, 6.8 YPC); Matt Ryan (3,469 passing yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 62.2%); Drew Brees (4,424 passing yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs, 68.7%)

Rams player - Sam Bradford (3,357 passing yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs, 60.5% CP)

I assume no complaints here, but I might as well point out the obvious.  Bradford had less passing yards than both Brees and Ryan while accumulating less total yards than Vick.  He also had a worse completion percentage than all three and a worse TD-INT ratio.  Bradford is an elite rookie, but a mediocre quarterback in the grand scheme.

RB

Actual Pro Bowlers - Michael Turner (1,304 rushing yards, 4.1 YPC, 11 TDs); Adrian Peterson (1,267 rushing yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TDs); Steven Jackson (1,196 rushing yards, 3.6 YPC, 6 TDs)

Rams player - Jackson

Well, if you paid attention to the stats, Jackson is noticeably worse than the other two.  After last season, I put little stock in touchdowns so that's not what got me.  It's the YPC.  Really how else can you judge a running back?  Not by yards, because that is dependent on carries.  

I'd put LeSean McCoy (5.2 YPC), Ahmad Bradshaw (4.6 YPC), and Matt Forte (4.4 YPC) ahead of him.  Jackson would be the sixth choice for me.  My only requirements would be that the back has to reach 1,000 yards.  McCoy did it despite just 207 carries.  That's pretty incredible.  Bradshaw is about 100 yards off Jackson despite 60 less carries.  And Forte will get the necessary yards in Week 17 with a much better YPC.

WR

Actual Pro Bowlers - Roddy White (109 receptions, 1,327 yards, 12.2 YPC, 9 TDs); Calvin Johnson (77 receptions, 1,120, 14.5 YPC, 12 TDs), DeSean Jackson (47 receptions, 1,065 yards, 22.5 YPC, 6 TDs); Greg Jennings (72 receptions, 1,168 yards, 16.5 YPC, 12 TDs)

Rams players - Danny Amendola (83 receptions, 680 yards, 8.2 YPC, 3 TDs); Brandon Gibson (50 receptions, 590 yards, 11.8 YPC, 2 TDs)

I really only felt like putting the two receivers with over 500 yards.  Let's face it.  Our receivers suck.  Our top receiver has 8.2 YPC and 2 TDs.  Wow.  All of the Rams receivers are considerably worse than the Pro Bowlers.  Just look at the stats.  They tell the story pretty well.

TE

Actual Pro Bowlers - Jason Witten (90 receptions, 956 yards, 10.6 YPC, 8 TDs); Tony Gonzalez (64 receptions, 603 yards, 9.4 YPC, 5 TDs)

Rams players - Daniel Fells (38 receptions, 352 yards, 9.3 YPC, 2 TDs)

I am surprised at how little stats Mike Hoomanawanui has with only 13 receptions.  Bajema is a blocking TE (they never do get their due), and Darcy Johnson is not good.  Fendi Onobun barely played.  Fells is the only guy with half-way decent stats.  They do not compare.  Again, just look at the stats.

OL

Alright instead of naming the players and their stats, I'll just say why the Rams offensive lineman don't deserve to be in there. For one, the Rams are awful at run blocking.  To be in the Pro Bowl, you have to be good at both pass blocking and run blocking.  They rank 27th among teams with an an Adjusted Line yard of 3.58 up the middle.  That pretty much excludes Jason Brown and the two "guards."  Jason Smith has committed a few too many false start penalties for my liking and hasn't been up to par in all 15 games.  Rodger Saffold, on the left side, has been pretty good most of the time, but he hasn't been doing good on run blocking either with the Rams having an Adjusted Line Yard of 3.85 off the left tackle.  

Here, I'd say we have one above average lineman, two average lineman, and two awful lineman.  Can you guess who is who?

Continue reading this post »

Yesterday, I went to the Rams game against the San Fransico 49ers.  I've been to about six games this year and it was obvious judging by the crowd what this game meant.  Granted, I am a smart enough fan to not have to use the crowd to realize the implications but I think you get the picture.

Let me tell you.  I don't know how it came across on the television, but the crowd was plenty riled up.  I haven't beenw to a game involving a competitive team with playoffs in the distance in my recent memory so I am comparing my experience yesterday to my experience the last few  years.  My experience the last few years has generally been expecting a loss, not getting much in the way of noise, and a collective group effort to make fun of the opposing fan.  [Greatest memory: In 2008, the Rams faced the Dallas Cowboys and this extremely overconfident and loud fan made it known where his interests lied.  By the second half, the Cowboys were getting killed and his mouth was shut and the insults were flying.  The most satisfying and hilarious defeat to date.  Best Rams win of the 6-42 era for me.]

Anyway, it was clear the difference between what we got yesterday... and what we got in the first seven games.  I would say that the crowd noise level on a "big" play in a typical 2010 Rams game was about the same as a regular play in yesterday's game.  Double it for the 3rd down plays and triple it for the potential game-changing plays.  I think the crowd may have influenced two false starts and Troy Smith was over-throwing receivers all day - perhaps mostly due to talent, but the crowd had to be in his head.

This made me wonder why there was a collective doubt that St. Louisians supported the Rams.  I think the answer lies with the product on the field.  When the Rams win, the fans will show up.  My excuse for the first seven games is that the Rams were always a sub-.500 team that just happen to play more bad teams than good teams.  Your average fan is smart enough to know this.  Would you rather see a potential loss on your big HD television or face the fury of defeat in front of opposing crowds?  I faced defeat everytime, but I can see the logic especially when games become unwatchable.  [And they certainly reached that point in agonizing losses].

You guys surely have heard that it was "Fan Appreciation Day" and it most certainly made me feel appreciated.  They gave out free jerseys to random seat numbers [My section was on the board twice, but my row and seat number were not close].  They made the soft drinks HALF-PRICE.  When I found that I out, I about sprinted out of my seat and got a souvenir cup for $3.00.  I even missed the cheerleaders!  Alas, they also gave out a free Ipad, free camera, and $2 hot dogs.  Amazingly, they would still be overpriced in regular society.  But I'd be damned if I pass up a $3 drink at a football game.  

What's funny is that throughout the entire game, I thought the Rams were receiving generous spots and the 49ers were receiving bad spots.  I thought I was supposed to be biased. I come and read the gamethreads and find out nobody thought the same.  Weird.

Continue reading this post »

With the trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox, the Cardinals can successfully eliminate a possible team that will sign Albert Pujols assuming their long term deal gets done.  I'm of the opinion the Cardinals will get him for less than $30 million because of a lack of a serious threat on the market.  Think of it like this: What team would give Pujols a $30 million dollar contract?

That's where I get the "You don't think any other team would want the best player in the game" which is bullshit because that's not at all how free agency works.  You don't see a player you like and shell up the cash necessary most of the time.  Other factors are present including your current player at that position, your payroll, the price, and your record.  

So here is where I will try to find legitimate candidates to threaten the Cardinals in the bidding of Albert Pujols.  And remember that it's not because a team doesn't want him, it's because common sense dictates to not go after him.

New York Yankees

Likelihood to add on $30 million of payroll (on a 1-10 scale)* - 10

Current 1B situation - covered for next six years at $22.5 million

Future 1B options?** - Teixiera

Comment: As much as everyone loves to throw the Yankees in as a possibility, they aren't really a threat.  There is no way they sign Pujols when they have a heavily priced first baseman already.  It's also ridiculously dumb to sign Pujols as a DH.

Verdict - Not a chance

Boston Red Sox

Likelihood to add on $30 million of payroll - 9

Current 1B situation - Adrian Gonzalez

Future 1B options? - Gonzalez?

Comment: Trading and signing Gonzalez would definitely eliminate them (I think people will accept this yet still think the Yankees are a threat which makes me laugh a little)

Verdict Not A Chance

Toronto Blue Jays

Likelihood to add on $30 million of payroll - 7

Current 1B situation - unknown

Future 1B options? - Jose Bautista in the short team I guess; David Cooper, the sixth rated prospect (and 10th on HBT) on the Jays by John Sickels (posted .257/.327/.442 line)

Comment: I put their likelihood because they literally have the payroll to do it with only $39.2 million committed last year with BJ Ryans, Roy Halladay, Edwin Encarnacion, Scott Downs, and Lyle Overbay off the payroll (that's $33.2 million for 4.5 WAR) and even less in 2012.  They have no first baseman for 2011 and beyond and David Cooper doesn't have good enough numbers to scare them way from signing Pujols.  

Verdict - Threat

Tampa Bay Rays

Likelihood to add on $30 million of payroll - 1.5

Current 1B situation - unknown

Future 1B options? - Unless they move someone to 1B, they lack prospects here

Comment: Even though their payroll was $72 million last year and this year they only have $12 million signed so far, there is little chance that this team mortgages its future with $30 million for the next five or so years.

Verdict - Not a Chance

Baltimore Orioles

Likelihood to Add on $30 million of payroll - 4

Current 1B situation - unknown

Future 1B options? - Joseph Mahoney, 23-years-old, had a .922 OPS at AA

Comment: Something tells me that even if Baltimore did have the money, Albert wouldn't answer their phone calls.

Verdict - Not a Chance

Continue reading this post »

Hello, Chargers fans.  The past two weeks, Turf Show Times has received fanposts from behind enemy lines and it was a lot of fun with them and hearing their bias.  So I want to share my thoughts and bias with you guys.  I will answer any questions and I'm sure some of my Rams brethren will follow me as well (Lions fan posted, when we said Bradford was better than Stafford - we got "spammed" by about 10 other guests - all in good fun of course).

First, let me just say I love the Chargers and they are one of the only teams I will root for that hail from the AFC.  I will be rooting for your team to get their record back to 10-6 (or greater).  Unfortunately, the Chargers are playing the Rams and I realize that we are probably going to help you.

But do not underestimate the Rams.  They didn't beat the Redskins or Seahawks because of a fluke.  They beat them soundly and because they played good football.  Both teams gave their crap games, but seeing as the Chargers are 2-3, I'm sure you've given a few crap games yourself.  So if the Chargers play their game, they will win.  But the Rams can take advantage of a crappy opponent - 2010 has proven that.

Yes, the 2010 Rams just got killed by an 0-4 Detroit team, but they played like crap and lost their best receiver Mark Clayton to injury immediately. The Rams were unprepared for this (most of the gameplan has revolved around getting Clayton the ball... so...)  Also, the Lions are definitely not 0-4 talent-wise.   Anyway, a quick rundown of the Rams without being biased hopefully (I'm sure i fail)

QB - Bradford is the real deal - ignore the stats, his receivers are pretty awful (CP% takes a hit cause of drops; forced to force throws = INTs)

RB - Steven Jackson has had a down year, but he's still in the upper echelon of RBs.  Anything to say about Jackson I'll summarize with this: He had third most rushing yards behind a below average line and he was literally the only offensive threat on the team last year.

WR - Amendola - the only threat - he can catch, he's lightning quick, he's shifty, he'll get yards possibly 100 this week; Gibson - crap - he has no hands - less than 50% catch rate; Robinson - crap - he has no separation skills and is injury-prone, 

TE - for the most part, its young and unproven with potential... a joke [TST reader: a joke?] on TST is claiming Fendi Onobun, freak of nature, is the next Antonio Gates [wishful thinking]; Hoomawanui showed potential in preseason and is coming back from injury possible; Fells is a good threat, he'll probably get yards as a result of no other options (Bradford has to throw it to somebody)

OL - Above average yet inconsistent... Saffold and Smith have been good but last game they both played terrible... wonder who shows up Sunday... Brown is worth his contract at center and the inside guards give Jackson no room to run 

DL - James Hall has 4 sacks, Chris Long leads lead in QB pressures, yet we let Shaun Hill and Bruce Gradowski go All-Pro on us - and yes im blaming them for Shaun Hill's game

LB - Lauranitis is "The Animal" - OLBs are below average

Secondary - Actually a strength... Bartell has been good against best receivers (Calvin Johnson: 54 receiving yards, TD)... Floyd will have his catches, but I'm not sure I expect him to completely demolish us... Fletcher is young and physical corner who has two INTs (for those wondering, he's our 3rd round pick in 2009).  OJ is an elite safety who can cause turnovers (hasn't yet this year) and Butler/Dahl are a good combo at FS.

Special Teams - Josh Brown has 3 missed field goals - two were blocked though.  He's still a good kicker.... Donnie Jones, god willing let him be healthy cause he is one of the best punters in the game.... Gilyard has been meh on KR although its too early to say that (runs to 25-30 a lot, but he has one fumble)... Amendola makes do with what he has on PR... our KR and PR coverage on defense has been inconsistent (Leon Washington was kept in check; whoever returns for Lions broke the ice to make it 10-3 last week) 

Anyway, I'm bored so I'll answer your questions/concerns.  For the record, the Rams' two wins - I stress - were NOT fluky wins and they should have won against Arizona (Clifton Ryan pulled a Leon Lett).  No longer the laughingstock of the league - that goes to the NFC West in general.

Oh and I'll leave you with a poll just for fun (very tough question)

The Rams are now 2-2 and are set to face the 0-4 Detroit Lions.  I won't say what everybody's thinking, but I just want to remind everyone that the Lions are in about the same spot that the Rams were after two games.  They barely lost to the Packers and have had several close games - in fact they should be 1-3 at the least after that hocus-pocus (non)catch by Calvin Johnson.

Anyway, I'm not discussing the odds of the Rams having a winning record (crap!) for the first time since...Week 8 of the 2006 season with a 4-3 record (really? it felt like it was just yesterday).  That team was Scott Linehan's first and the season showed so much promise.  They started off 4-1, followed that up with a 1-7 streak and ended the season on a three game winning streak.  That turned into Adam Carriker. (I'm sorry, I truly am)

Anway, for the less statistically inclined, I'm here to present the contrast between 2009 and 2010.  This, unlike the previous numbers in this post, will be fun and positive!  Getting the obvious out of the way, the Rams were 0-4 at this point last year.  Now let's look at the total offensive production after the first 4 games. 

Notes

- The turnovers are inflated.  The Cardinals game included 3 interceptions from Bradford, two of which were desperation passes.  The last three games the Rams have just 4 turnovers.

- The Rams were shutout twice in those four losses

- The Rams have been getting hosed by the referees this year... despite dropping Alex "Holding" Barron, the penalties have gone up, partly due to calls like the "taunting" by Danny Amendola (that was an awful call)

Continue reading this post »

Lately, I've seen Schumaker thrown around as a terrible player, with the likes of Pedro Feliz and Co.  I think Schumaker is getting an unfair shake here.  I realize he is no world-beater as a player, but its quite ridiculous in my opinion that he is so easily thrown out of the picture for next season.

The Skip Schumaker contract was clearly not a smart move in hindsight of course.  But I don't really understand why everyone is just simply writing him off for 2011.  He is still cheap and we can still get surplus value on his contract.  

Schumaker's defense is horrible; there is no denying that.  But 2010 Skip Schumaker is not this bad of a hitter.  At the very least, he is certainly been unlucky to date and to think otherwise would be biased and one-sided.  The numbers clearly point in Schumaker's favor in that regard.  

The real concern here of course is that his BB rate has declined, his K rate has risen, his ISO power has dipped three years in a row, and of course his OPS and wOBA have now consecutively declined thrice times.

To me, the OBP, and as a result the OPS and wOBA, don't concern me as much as the isolated power.  I don't want him to have Miles' like power and he is getting dangerously close to that territory.  

Anyway the reason for optimism and not to give up on him is his horrible luck.  Its downright Craigsian.  His BABIP of course is the first outlier and that's a key word.  His BABIP in his career is not .300 so the .298 is not neutral luck as it first seems.  Batted ball data gives us a closer look at why exactly he has been getting hoodwinked.

This is a bit perplexing to me.  His groundball rate is at a career low, his flyball rate is in the middle, his infield flyball rate is barely existent, and his line drive rate is at a career high yet his BABIP is at .298 which is 25 lower than his career BABIP level.  

I would tend to chalk the batted ball data to be wrong, however every category is pretty consistenly in a good position.  Its not like his LD rate is out of this world, but he has a high infield flyball rate.  (Random Note: How do you hit .300 when 1/10 of your hits is an infield flyball as Schumaker did in 2009?).

The positive is that he's getting paid $2.7 million.  This is sort of a negative as well, but I'll look at it as a positive.  He needs to have roughly a 0.6 WAR to be worth his contract next season and I would bet internet dollars that he is definitely going to be worth that.  

He could even cover the remaining contract and more (surplus value).  His contract is $4.7 million overall.  So far he has earned exactly 0% of his contract so its all up to him next season to be worth it.  But if he can manage close to his 1.5 WAR in 2008 like I think he can, he will be worth over 6 million.  He will probably not approach the 2.3 WAR he had in 2008, so let's call that his absolute upside.  

Anyway, I'm not necesarily claiming Skip Schumaker is a good player.  He is probably an average player with slightly above average offense and below average defense.  He crushes right-handed pitching as well, so a platoon with a right-handed 2B option would be smart.  

The issue is Daniel Descalsco is left-handed of course.  But how much better would Descalsco be than Schumaker?  Would he even be better?  That is an interesting question and really the only thing to go by is his MLEs right now and whatever playing time he receives up in the MLB

MLE: .247/.300/.349/.649 

Not very good.  He has a .768 OPS in AAA which is league average and most likely becomes below average in the majors.  His batted ball data is quite horrendous as well.  He has just a 16.7% LD rate and a 13% IFFB rate.  His .303 BABIP seems almost lucky with those peripherals but its probably neutral luck.  

I would negate Descalsco as a replacement just because his stats are midly unimpressive.  Anyway, it fits kind of conveniently in this way that when Skip's contract ends, Descalsco can take over as long as he improves.  Descalsco can play Tyler Greene next year jumping back and forth.  He should actually play that role too because his stats don't suggest MLB, but at the same time, they need to soothe him in.

The only options beside Descalsco is a free agent addition.  Orlando Hudson is the only appealing full-time starter, but he'll likely get upward of $5 million dollars.  Putting $7.7+ into one position is not smart with the impending contract of Albert Pujols especially if you already have a millionaire at that position.  

Kelly Johnson is another possibility, but the Cardinals have caught him at the worst possible time.  He just hit a career year and he is in a weak free agent class.  He'll probably get more money than the Cardinals can afford.  

The only other options are mostly borderline starters/bench players in which case you should use my suggestion: platoon.  (*cough - Tyler Greene - cough* - excuse me....)

First off, I want to say I'm sorry if I didn't include someone who wanted to be in the draft.  I did the best I could and actually had issues emailing some people (or people getting them or responding) so in some cases I actually did invite you, I just had no time and needed to move on the next person who could join.  

I am an idiot.  I schedule the draft for last week on Sunday thinking: hey everybody's home on Sunday.  Of course I needed to reschedule due to membership issues and it never occured to me that Labor Day was next weekend.  What happens?  Two hours before the draft, I get invited somewhere and how much of an asshole do I sound like if I say, "Hey I'm sorry maybe next time, I really need to make this fantasy draft."

Weighing the options, I figured I wasn't paying money in this league and I do really want to come over to this said person's house so I had to skip the draft.  So I had to miss my own scheduled draft and my team was picked on autopick of course.  With that said, let's grade the TST draftees in fantasy (and the fun of seeing autopick work out in true form!)

1st round

1. Jackson Walsh - Chris Johnson

2. Blair Rocket - Adrian Peterson

3. Carneros - Steven Jackson 

4. Habte E - Maurice Jones-Drew

5. revrue914 - Ray Rice

6. Smiff620 - Aaron Rodgers 

7. Midasknight - Andre Johnson

8. Trojan Rams - Peyton Manning

9. crasshoverrider01  - Frank Gore

10. stlcardsfan4 - Michael Turner

11. Danteslion - Drew Brees

12. abadino - Ryan Grant

13. NJ Hermits  - Randy Moss

14. abrantes - Roddy White

Biggest Reach - Peyton Manning.... kind of surprised 3 QBs were picked in first round... anyway Manning is the #4 QB in SI and #21 ranked player by ESPN... Steven Jackson was also a bit of a reach but since this is a Rams blog, that is probably more understandable (#7 RB by SI, #5 by ESPN), Roddy White as well was a reach (#11 WR by SI, #20 overall by ESPN - how bout that disparity?)

Biggest Steal - wanted to say Andre Johnson, but he was picked where he was supposed to... on the other hand Randy Moss was a steal - #2 WR in SI and #10 overall in ESPN... pretty good pick right there

Autopick - Hmmm.. well can't say I'd draft Michael Turner... i'd probably get drew brees to be honest

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Football Season is starting which means two things: Rams football and fantasy football.  Well, at least that's how I look at it.  I will be in my sixth year of fantasy football and I get more excited and more experienced with every year that passes by.  

Now, I thought' I'd combine my favorite Rams football site and my hobby together by creating a fantasy football league dedicated soley for TST members.  As far as I know, nobody has made one yet and if anyone has made one, well then ignore by all means.

Now, I think what I'll do is have at most 14 teams (depending on the response really, I'll consider more) and hope to have at least 12 teams.  I'll be using ESPN format, simple QB - 2 RB - 2 WR - 1 RB/WR - TE - Team D - K - 7 Bench.  The bench will  decrease if the response is ridiculous because 7 bench players is probably too much to begin with.... I mean how much more do you need than one backup for each position?

The draft.... can be changed, but the most reliable and best time for me is Sunday night.  How many people go out on Sunday nights?  I was thinking something like 9 pm central time (just remember some people live on West Coast and England so that will be hard to deal with) possibly later/possibly earlier, give me some feedback on the time.  

If you're interested, please comment below you're email address and your thoughts on the date of the draft (which would be live unless there's a better and easier way), your thoughts on the roster management, and other potential insights into how to run this fantasy football league.

So just simply comment below and send me your email, the first posts will most likely receive the first invites so comment as soon as you read this 

I'll give you the good news and the bad news.  As of now, there is currently no foreshadowing that suggests Sam Bradford will be a bust in the future.  I will support this later.  The bad news is that according to Walter Football, since 1993, there is a 44.2% bust rate among quarterbacks.  Its only 60% for quarterbacks taken first overall, not counting Matthew Stafford, who is a to be determined.

Walter Football gives three reasons why a quarterback will become a bust.  Now before I name them, let me clear up that ALL busts have either of these three reasons.  If they clear all, then they won't become a bust or at least no bust has happened that haven't fit the criteria.

The first one is a bit of scary one, because Sam Bradford fits the profile.  System quarterbacks typically bust.  In recent years, some of the system quarterbacks are Cade McNown, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, and Alex Smith.  Not exactly the list you want to be on.  Sam Bradford ran a spread in college.  Although, I think its been shown that its not as bad as say if you're drafting Chase Daniels (ignoring the height deficiences as well).  He only ran a shotgun offense 48% of the time.

Also WF finishes up with this quote - "If you can really do your homework on these gimmick-offense quarterbacks in college and ensure they have the proper arm strength, talent level, and football intelligence to play the position, then you will not end up with a bust for this reason. "

Ok well all signs show that Bradford has great arm strength, his talent seems to be there, and he is smart at football (his Wunderlic rating was a 36).  

Second reason was because a quarterback lacked intangibles.  Well, I'm about 90% sure Sam Bradford has the work ethic neccessary.  Also, his poise is probably a sure thing given that he played on Oklahoma (massive expectations) and in front of large crowds (larger than any he's going to see in the NFL).  Now, leadership, I'm not sure about.  We can only assume.  Hopefully he isn't Marc Bulger in the sense that he had no leadership over his offense.  I doubt he will, but by Bradford's third or so start, I'm sure this will be cleared up.

The third reason is if a team lacks offensive line.  David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Alex Smith again all fall victim.  Any reasonable projection says the Rams offensive line is average and potentially much greater.  They have Jason Brown, unquestionably an elite center.  I expect Jason Smith to be above average in his second season and Roger Saffold to be average with possibly a few false starts (still less than Barron).  Jacob Bell, Mark Setterstorm, and others fill the depth and guard positions.  Offensive line will not be the reason Bradford is a bust.  

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(Note: 1st time i've ever tried this so im not sure how good it is; i think this would be an awesome music video, but i have neither the talent to sing nor the time to make the video - enjoy; this may only make sense btw if you've heard not afraid by eminem - i modeled the lyrics after this song... if you've never heard of it, play the song while reading the lyrics)

Scene: Tony LaRussa, John Mozeliak, and Aaron Miles in the Tony's office discussing about problems within the lineup... the beat of Not Afraid begins to play... Tony starts singing to noone in particular)

(Intro)

Yeah its been a career

I guess I had to get creative to do what I'm doing

Now some people might still  hate me

If they're trying to get me outa town, they'll fail,

so they better enjoy my lineups while I'm here

(Hook) (sung by Tony LaRussa looking at Mo)

"I'm not afraid to go my ways,

Everybody hates how I play

my lineups every night, through the season

whatever record, good or bad,

just let you know that, I'm the best,

Hola if you can say Hall of Fame now BITCH"

(Verse I) - said by Tony LaRussa

You can try and read my lineup off of this paper before I write it

But you won't take this suckage out this card before you get it

Cause ain't no way I'm let you stop me from causing mayhem

When I say 'em or do something I do it, I don't give a damn

What you think, I'm doing this for me, so fuck the critics

Feed them beans, bernie's gassed up, if a thing's stopping me

Imma do what I set out to do, without a doubt undoubtedly,

And all those got a problem on me, just ignore all the irony

No if ands or buts don't try to ask him why or how can I

still be here down to the worst batter whose not a pitcher

whose on reds salary, rather stupidly,

Until he bows out or he shit's his bowels out of him,

whichever comes first, which is surely for worse,

I'm married to loyalty, like a fuck you for christmas,

its becoming a curse, forget the stats I've got the urge

to pull Skip from the lineup fucking the Cards universe

(Hook)

"I'm not afraid to go my ways,

Everybody hates how I play

my lineups every night, through the season

whatever record, good or bad,

just let you know that, I'm the best,

Hola if you can say Hall of Fame now BITCH"

(Verse 2) - sung by John Mozeliak

Ok quit playin' with this shit, and let me cut the crap

I shouldn't have to rhyme these words in the rhythm for you to know that its bad

You said I was king, you lied through your teeth,

for that fuck your feelings, instead of getting crowned we're getting scraps,

and to the fans, i'll never let you down again, i'm back

I promise to never let Tony get this outta control, in fact, 

let's be honest, this last Cardinals bench is ehhh,

perhaps I ran my control into the ground

Relax, I ain't doing that shit now

To Aaron Miles get back, click-clack BLAOW,

cause I ain't playing around, 

There's a game called circle and I don't know how

Greene's too hot to go back down

But I think I'm still tryna figure this crap out

Thought I had it mapped out but I guess I didn't

Fucking Aaron Miles is a black cloud still following me around

but its time to exercise his demon

i bet this motherfucker is doing jumping jacks now

(Songs fades into the distance....

"Hey I'm right here Mr. Mozeliak"  - Aaron Miles

"You can go to hell" - Mo - beat continues)

(Hook) - TLR

"I'm not afraid to go my ways,

Everybody hates how I play

my lineups every night, through the season

whatever record, good or bad,

just let you know that, I'm the best,

Hola if you can say Hall of Fame now BITCH"

(Bridge) - Mo

And I just can't keep my job this way

So starting today, I'm breaking out of my cage

I'm standing up, Imma face my demon (looks at Miles)

I'm manning up, Imma hold my ground (looks at TLR)

I've had enough, now I'm so fed up

Time to put my team back together right now

(Verse 3) - sung by Aaron Miles (kneeling facing Tony)

(It was my decision to get good, I did it for me

Admittedly I probably did it subliminally for you, Tony

So I could come back a brand new me, you helped see me through

And don't even realise what you did, believe me you

I been through the waivers, but that can do little to the heart of my play

I think I got a tear in my eye, I feel like the king of

My world, haters can make like bees with no stingers, and drop dead

expect more flailing singles, expect a higher average now on, I promise

To focus soley on handling my responsibility's as a hitter

So I solemnly swear to always treat this team like my life and raise it

You couldn't find a happer person on it

Cause the way I feel, I'm strong enough to go to the MLB club

On the bench and lift the team's spirits up

Cause I'm raising the bar, I shoot for the moon

But I'm too busy gazing at stars, I feel amazing and

(Song pauses.... TLR takes a gun out of his pocket, points it at Mo

"He's staying on the roster whether you fucking like it or not"

Song resumes, as Mo stares intently at the gun with bulging eyes)

(Hook)

"I'm not afraid to go my ways,

Everybody hates how I play

my lineups every night, through the season

whatever record, good or bad,

just let you know that, I'm the best,

Hola if you can say Hall of Fame now BITCH"

(Song fades off in distance, blank screen comes on... text appears that says "Now you know why Aaron Miles is still on the Cards - end scene)