SB Nation User Blog: stlfan

Buy Low

stlfan — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 21:54:07 -0000

I was reading a few past blogs and also have been thinking about this post for a while. Many people are in favor of getting rid of players who are not currently performing on our favorite team. Some favorite targets of these posters are: Kennedy, Duncan, Izzy, Flores (of the Randy variety), Villone, and more.

One thing that I have read consistently, and believe to be true myself (mainly because it just flat out makes sense) is that it is difficult to trade a player who is very much underperforming for a valuable asset, or one that is overperforming. This is the "sell low" or "buy low" philosophy, depending on from which angle you are looking at the trade.

One of my favorite "help both teams" trades over the past few years was one in which the Cardinals traded an aging outfielder hitting .235 with 15 homers and 39 rbi in 91 games and, in return, received an aging pitcher who had posted a 4.97 ERA in 145 games with San Diego before becoming a Cardinal. Ray Lankford went on to hit .288 with 4 homers, 16 rbi, and 6 steals (0 caught) in the final 40 games with San Diego and Woody Williams pitched 75 innings over the next 11 starts with St. Louis with a 2.28 ERA and a .973 WHIP.

My questions to VEB posters is this:

What players out there would be good for the "rebuilding for the future" approach (that most of us would like the Cardinals to take) that are also performing below expectations that we could trade for?

Would the Cardinals hvae a player that is a good fit for that team (Duncan, Kennedy, Izzy, Villone, Flores, etc)?

Article on Stan "The Man" Musial

stlfan — Sun, 02 Mar 2008 18:05:03 -0000

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=1041

At Dugout Central, there is an interesting article on Stan Musial and how he might be "The Greatest Living Ballplayer" today.

I think the most impressive thing about Musial is his run of MVP voting. From 1943 to 1957 (14 seasons) he finished in the top 10 in voting all but one year. From 1943 to 1952 (9 seasons) he finished in the top 5 in voting all but one year.

To add to that, he currently has the all-time ranks of:

AVG - 32nd overall (.331)
OBP - 23rd overall (.417)
SLG - 22nd overall (.559)
OPS - 15th overall (.976)

Games, AB, PA, R, H, TB, RBI, and 2B are all top 10 all-time.

For those of you who are bigger stat geeks than I am - he has the 3rd most career runs created, 6th most career adjusted batting runs, 5th most career batting wins, 15th best career adjusted OPS+, 10th best offensive win %, and many more ridiculous #s.

Your thoughts, ideas, etc. about this topic?

stlfan

Non-Cardinal Notes

stlfan — Wed, 05 Dec 2007 03:01:14 -0000

Two non-Cardinal related notes: (I searched the site and did not find this anywhere else. If I missed it, I truly apologize for repeat info.)

Jose Guillen about to sign with Royals for 3 years and $36 million.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BBA_ROYALS_GUILLEN?SITE=MOSTP&SECTION=SPORTS&TEMPLATE =DEFAULT

Jake Peavy could be making $87.5 million over the next 6 seasons.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/B/BBN_PADRES_PEAVY?SITE=MOSTP&SECTION=SPORTS&TEMPLATE=D EFAULT

stlfan

3rd basemen

stlfan — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 02:44:49 -0000

Now that ARod is off the market, per http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3112799 what do you all think will happen with the rest of the third base market?

Lowell will most definitely re-sign with Boston (that's my guess.) After that, does Crede stay in Chicago? Who knows...what do you think?

stlfan

what would you do?

stlfan — Wed, 07 Nov 2007 04:01:44 -0000

According to an article at ESPN.com (see article at here)
almost one year ago, salaries around the majors averaged out to this at each position:

C - not mentioned
1B - $5.78M
2B - $2.79M
SS - $4.06M
3B - $5.87M
OF - $4.88M (lumped of together)
SP - $4.87M
RP - $1.43M

The article also said the MLB average salary was $2.70M, so why not just add a catcher and bench players at that.

That would bring the total for a 5-man staff with 7 relievers to $34.36M and a total for a lineup and bench with 2 catchers, 6 infielders and 5 outfielders to $49.34M.

My question, then, is "what is the best team that you could put together using the following limitations:

Team must be at or under $83.70M.

2 catchers totaling $5.40M

6 infielders totaling $23.90M

5 outfielders totaling $20.04M

5 starters totaling $24.35M

7 relievers totaling $10.01M

(use 2008 salaries (or approximations for FAs and arb. elig. players) and give or take 20% on each of the five categories)?"
-------------------------------------------------

The team that I would put out there would be:

Victor Martinez (C - $4.25M)
Yadier Molina (C - $0.75M)
C total - $5M - save $0.4M

Albert Pujols (1B - $16M)
Ian Kinsler (2B - $0.45M)
BJ Upton (2B/SS - $0.45M)
Hanley Ramirez (SS - $0.75M)
David Wright (3B - $5M)
Ryan Braun (3B/1B - $0.40M)
INF total - $23.05M - save $0.85M

Grady Sizemore (OF - $3M)
Curtis Granderson (OF - $0.5M)
Chris Young (OF - $0.45M)
Miguel Cabrera (OF - $8M)
Matt Holliday (OF - $8M)
OF total - $19.95M - save $0.09M
hitters total - $48.00M - save $1.34M

Jake Peavy (SP - $6.00M)
Chris Young (SP - $2.50M)
Erik Bedard (SP - $7.00M)
Josh Beckett (SP - $9.50M)
Fausto Carmona (SP - $0.40M)
SP total - $25.40M - use $1.05M extra

Heath Bell (RH Long Relief - $0.45M)
Rafael Betancourt (RH Middle Relief - $0.90M)
Jon Rauch (RH Middle Relief - $0.50M)
Rafael Perez (LH Middle Relief - $0.45M)
Russ Springer (RH Setup - $3.50M)
George Sherrill (LH Setup - $0.45M)
JJ Putz (CL - $3.40M)
RP total - $9.65M - save $0.36M
pitchers total - $35.05M - use $0.69M extra

Overall salaries - $83.05M - SAVINGS OF $0.65M

That's my team and I'm sticking with it. Please note that I used people in their REAL positions (i.e. - I don't have 3 first basemen, one in the OF, I don't have 4 starting pitchers relieving or 3 closers. I don't necessarily have any true BENCH players, however.)

Good luck and have fun.

stlfan

Youth movement everyone is talking about?

stlfan — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 23:50:18 -0000

Dear Diary,

OK. I'm a little bit dismayed at the playing both sides of the coin thing that many posters are doing lately. People keep saying that we need to have a youth movement and then saying we need to trade all these young players. A (over the top) typical post has been something along the lines of:

For this youth movement to work we should a) trade Duncan (26) and Reyes (25) for Jon Garland (27) or Buehrle (28). Then sign Schilling (40), Glavine (41), and Eckstein (32) for one more year. Then lets trade away Ankiel (27) and Ludwick (28) for a shortstop that will sit behind Eckstein (which won't let Ryan play at all) who is only in A ball and showing some promise. Meanwhile, to fill the vacated 3 spots in the outfield we should sign Kenny Lofton (40) and Dave Roberts (35) if we can't re-up Taguchi's (38) contract. Maybe play Speez (34) a bit in LF.

Now, I know noone in their right mind would want all of that together, but I am failing to see any of the logic behind some posters' remarks about a youth movement when they are making the average age of the team go from like 2nd in the league to first by a large margin.

OK, rant over.

stlfan

Realistic Looks

stlfan — Sun, 23 Sep 2007 20:02:02 -0000

I think that there are 7 or 8 players out there that the Cardinals should give a realistic look at over the next year. I do not like all 8 of these players, nor do I think that the Cards will necessarily sign any of these players. I just think that these are guys who will be available at some point over the next year as free agents or via trade.

1. Livan Hernandez

Livan is a free agent this year and I think that this team just needs a #2-3 guy in the rotation that can eat up innings. Adam Wainwright may very well be a #1-2 starter for many years to come; I think next year it would be nice to see Livan pitch 220 innings of ~4.00 ERA ball to make sure our bullpen doesn't have to throw 600+ innings or something next year.

2. AJ Burnett

See my post a week or so ago for why this would be intriguing. Also, notice in the post that I do not necessarily WANT this one. This would have to be via trade.

3. Adam Dunn

If the Reds do not pick up his option, I want to see him in the lineup batting either directly in front of or directly behind Albert. That could give us 3 guys in the lineup (with Duncan) that are possible 100-run/100-rbi guys.

4. Torii Hunter

Torii is a free agent this off-season. He is a guy who could get 80-90 runs, 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, 15-30 SB (if our manager next year will allow) and play + defense. I like any guy like that.

5. Aaron Rowand

He is a guy who is coming into his own right now. He plays + defense, could be a 100-run/100-rbi guy on a regular basis (although it might be more realistically a 85-run/85-rbi guy regularly).

6. Barry Bonds

He is a free agent. He is a guy that I might stop watching Cardinals' baseball if they get, plus he would add to an outfield that is injured a lot anyway; however, his OBP hasn't dropped below .400 in 8 seasons and his SLG has been above .500 since 1989 - before I turned 10 years old.

7. Alex Rodriguez

He is a free agent - if he opts out of his option. He is a guy who we will not get, unless he takes a HUGE pay cut because he likes it here or something. I don't really need to say much about him except a possible lineup with him and Albert excites me beyond belief.

8. Edgar Renteria

Edgar would have to come back via a trade. Escobar has been playing a lot more near the end of the year and Renteria hasn't quite been the same since he left here. The Cardinals need a shortstop and Edgar might be the best, truly available option. I am afraid of trading with ATL a little, though.

stlfan

AJ Burnett

stlfan — Fri, 14 Sep 2007 14:45:14 -0000

OK, so I'm not advocating that the Cards MUST go get AJ Burnett or anything. In fact, I am of the opposite belief that AJ is not good for the Cardinals because he adds another oft-injured pitcher who's arm might fall off at any moment. The big "but" is, did anyone see the numbers he put up last night to stop the streaking Yankees? The Yankee lineup is completely bombing the ball right now. In the since stopped 7 game win streak, they scored 55 runs. That's almost 8 runs a game for a week. They hit .297 as a team, with an OBP of .349, and a SLG of .558 (that's a team OPS of .947!) They also had 16 homers and 17 doubles in those 7 games.

AJ's line last night:
8 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 R (earned), 8 Ks (10:6 GB:FB)

That is downright nasty against that lineup.

stlfan

Injuries

stlfan — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:05:34 -0000

This is not a diary entry in which I am trying to complain. I am looking to clarify.

Has there ever been a Cardinals' season so marred with injuries as this one? It seems that more people have gone down than I have ever remembered. We'll get to a list in a second, but I just want to reiterate that the Cardinals "jumped out" to a 9 game deficit in the first thirty games played...so the probably weren't going to be great this year anyway (they won 4 of the first 5 times Carpenter was supposed to pitch (losing only in the game that he pitched)). Also, I know that the owner/GM left the team with a lot of older players that are more injury prone; however, this is CRAZY.

Here's this list this season, thus far - only time lost to the DL (or worse):

Chris Carpenter - April 9th - present
David Eckstein - June 16th - July 12th
Jim Edmonds - June 16th - July 19th
Juan Encarnacion - Beginning - May 13th
Juan Encarnacion - part 2 - September 4th - ?????
Josh Hancock - died April 29th, 2007
Tyler Johnson - June 19th - *August 6th
Adam Kennedy - August 12th - present
Josh Kinney - Beginning - present
Braden Looper - June 16th - July 2nd
Mike Maroth - August 5th - September 1st
Yadier Molina - May 30th - June 28th
Mark Mulder - beginning - September 6th
Scott Rolen - *August 29th - present
Scott Speizio - *July 13th - July 29th
Scott Speizio - part 2 - August 9th - present
Todd Wellemeyer - July 9th - August 24th
Preston Wilson - May 6th - present

* - approximate start time...not listed as a transaction on stlcardinals.com

Overall, that is:
1 catcher
1 second baseman
1 shortstop
1 third baseman
1 infielder/outfielder
3 outfielders
4 starting pitchers
4 relief pitchers

You could almost field a full team with that. Play Speizio at first and you could play a game without any fielding/running/pinch hitting substitutions. That's quite ridiculous.

Has there been any team in history with this expansive an amount of injuries in one season?

stlfan

The NL "Comedy" Central?

stlfan — Sat, 18 Aug 2007 20:37:55 -0000

OK, so everyone keeps saying that the NL Central is the worst division and all of that...and I'm sort of sick of hearing it.

Reasons why they may not be the worst...but one of the most competitive:

The World Series winner in '06 came from the NL Central.
The World Series runners up in '04 and '05 came from the NL Central.
There are 4 teams in the NL Central that have played .500 or 1 game over or 1 game under against NL Central foes this season (pretty competitive!)
Everyone in the division is within 11.5 games, the closest margin of any division (actually, all but the NL West have two teams further out of contention than that.)
2 of the last three NL Cy Young awards have been NL Central players and one of the last two non-Bonds MVP awards in the NL came from the Central.

OK, there's my biased, semi-slanted (yet accurate) post regarding that.

stlfan