SB Nation User Blog: stlfan

If the NFL really wants this (like it seems they do)

stlfan — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:17:25 -0000

Since the NFL seems dead set on expanding and making the league more global, I thought I would give my take on how to do it right. I think that, for a long time now, the league has needed to redo their divisions and leagues. It’s not like baseball in which there is a DH and non-DH league which you could not mess with. Any of the 32 teams could be NFC teams or AFC teams. They are all NFL now, there is no chance of the two leagues splitting up. My suggestion would be to expand out to 36 teams, adding teams in Mexico City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles (because they’re already building a new stadium there), and London (since this is the direction it’s all going.)

See Divisions at Bottom

I know that some teams (Dallas and Kansas City for sure) will ultimately be quite upset about some of the decisions made here because of rivalries lost, but some things had to be done. You will see that I try to address these as best I can.

There are now 9 teams per division, so each team could play 2 games a season against each division foe and have a 16 games schedule. If that is the case, the way I would remedy the rivals situation would be to (in the final week of the season) each team play a rival (it could be different each year, for example: Dallas could play Washington and NY Giants in alternating seasons.) Another option would be to play two rival games per year. This would be a 17 or 18-game schedule, but I think that the NFL will be expanding schedules sometime in the near future anyway. Football is the shortest season out of every professional sport in any case, and they play way less games.

The other option would be to play each team in your division once, play every team in one other division each year, with those games rotating year in and year out, once every three years (at home once, then away the next time.) I would add a similar "rival game" in the last game of the year in that case, to make it an 18-game schedule once again. (I like even numbers.)

I would say that the top three teams in each division make the playoffs, thus leaving 12 playoff teams; however, that would take away from the wild card concept. It might be more practical to let the top 2 teams in each division into the playoffs; and then allow the wild card to come down to the best 4 teams in the entire league that aren’t already in the top two in their division.

I do not know if the players’ association would go for it, but with such an expansive expansion (11% of the league as new teams) I would love to see all the players go into a draft. That wouldn’t happen, however, so I wouldn’t mind seeing the four expansion teams going through the same process as the other expansion teams, but then giving those 4 teams first shot at all the free agents (say, a week to discuss deals with them before any other team is allowed to make contact.)

My New Divisions

West

Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos

Las Vegas _____

Los Angeles _____

Mexico City _____

East

London _____

New York Jets

North

South

If we're headed down this road anyway...

stlfan — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 02:10:17 -0000

See Divisions at Bottom

The other option would be to play each team in your division once, play every team in one other division each year, with those games rotating year in and year out, once every three years (at home once, then away the next time.) I would add a similar “rival game” in the last game of the year in that case, to make it an 18-game schedule once again. (I like even numbers.)

My New Divisions

West

Arizona Cardinals

Denver Broncos

Las Vegas _____

Los Angeles _____

Mexico City _____

East

London _____

New York Jets

North

South

A Team of Free Agents

stlfan — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:46:10 -0000

Currently is that time in the off-season in which I am still interested in what is going on. Not in the playing baseball sense of the word, I could(n't) care less who wins between New York and Philadelphia. Now, if the Angels pull it off, I might root for them, but then I probably would not watch 4/7 of the games because of them being west coast 9:00 PMers. I am, instead, talking about what the home town Birds on the Bat will be doing in the off-season. Since so many people have already chimed in on what they would like the Cardinals to do with what money is perceived to be available, I decided to take a different route and look at what a team of free agents would look like.

I decided, that to make this more real, I would not include anyone that has an option, whether it is a team or player option. That way, everyone chosen is truly, at this moment, a free agent. I am also assuming 700 AB at each position, and an NL club, thus no woosy DH position. Lastly, I am assuming a one-year deal for everyone and no limit on payroll; I'm pretty much trying to see how much I could win right now with who's available in free agency. In essence, I gave Mark Cuban an expansion team and one season.

Catcher:

At the back end of the battery position, after much serious thought, I am going to go with Benjie Molina and Greg Zaun.

Benjie - $5 million - 500 AB, .280/.300/.440/.740

Zaun - $2.5 million - 200 AB, .250/.340/.410/.750

Catcher total - 700 AB, .311 OBP/ .431 SLG

1st Base:

At first base, it came down to Adam LaRoche and Nick Johnson for me. I also looked at the aging, injury-prone Carlos Delgado and Aubrey Huff, but decided quickly that AL and NJ would both be better choices. After looking at what I would project the two at, I went with Nick Johnson.

Johnson - $6 million - 500 AB, .290/.420/.465/.885

First Base total - 700 AB, .390 OBP, .459 SLG

2nd Base:

I looked extensively at Placido Polanco and Orlando Hudson. The way I figure it, I want 3 MI anyway, so I'm going with both. Polanco can fill in at SS in a pinch, or at 3B.

Hudson - $5 million - 500 AB, .285/.360/.440/.800

Polanco - $4 million - 200 AB (2nd), 100 AB (SS), .300/.350/.410/.760

Second Base total - 700 AB, .357 OBP, .431 SLG

Shortstop:

This one comes down to Marco Scutaro or Orlando Cabrera. Cabrera is a sure-fielding .720 OPS guy at SS. Not a bad guy to have as long as you have some hitters. Scutaro is an average-fielding .720 OPS guy for his career...then comes his outlandish .790 OPS of this past season. If you're a believer in Brady Anderson and other one year wonders...then this is the guy for you.

Orlando Cabrera - $6 million - 500 AB - .285/.330/.390/.720

Shortstop total - 700 AB, .341 OBP, .392 SLG

3rd Base:

Mark Derosa we all know (and some of us love) here at VeB. Mark DeRosa is a highly probably .800 OPS player at 4, positions, (2B, 3B, LF, RF) none of which he plays very well defensively. Chone Figgins is a .750-.770 OPS guy who has serious speed and a decent glove at 3B. While he's been a 3B for the last 3 years, he has logged 800-4500 innings in the field at 3B, 2B, CF, OF in his career. Adrian Beltre, the non-steroid era version, is a .760 OPS hitter with a great glove at 3B. He is the only true 3B in the group above. I want two of these guys.

Beltre - $8 million - 350 AB (3B), 200AB (1B) - .265/.315/.445/.760

Figgins - $5 million - 350 AB (3B),100 AB (SS) - .300/.385/.385/.770

Third Base total - 700 AB, .350 OBP, .415 SLG

Outfield:

Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, Bobby Abreu, and Johnny Damon are all type A left fielders who rock in one sense of the word, or more. Vladdy Guerrero is another type A free agent outfielder. Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Reed Johnson, and Mike Cameron look like the best true free agents who can play CF. Out of all of those players, I need to come up with 5 of them to play the outfield on a regular basis.

Cameron - $5 million - 500 AB (CF) - .250/.340/.460/.800

Johnson - $1 million - 200 AB (CF) - .280/.350/.410/.760

Abreu - $12 million - 350 AB (RF) - .290/.380/.450/.830

Holliday - $16 million - 250 AB (LF), 350 AB (RF) -.325/.400/.560/.960

Bay - $10 million - 450 AB (LF) - .280/.380/.515/.895

Left Field total - 700 AB, .387 OBP, .531 SLG

Center Field total - 700 AB, .343 OBP, .446 SLG

Right Field total - 700 AB, .390 OBP, .505 SLG

Team total (minus pitchers) - 5600 AB, .359 OBP, .451 SLG = .810 OPS as a team

That is $85.5 million wrapped up in the offensive side of the ball. I said I was going to have unlimited payroll.

Obviously the outfield defense leaves plenty to be desired (even with Cameron in CF for most of the innings) and the infield defense isn't the best, but isn't horrible. The left side should be good, whereas the right side shouldn't. Any Molina behind the plate defensively is good.

Starting Pitching

Looking at the Type B free agent starters that are truly availble, I only see: Erik Bedard, Doug Davis, Rich Harden, Randy Johnson, Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, and Joel Pineiro. Randy Wolf and John Lackey are obvious signings, IMO. Justin Duchscherer was also there, but his high in IP is 141. No thanks as a starter. I'm also of the opinion that Rich Harden should be moved to the closer role (as has been thrown around here a bit.)

Lackey - $10 million - 200 IP, 163 K, 47 BB, 3.56 FIP

Wolf - $7 million - 200 IP, 158 K, 67 BB, 4.02 FIP

Bedard - $5 million - 160 IP, 160 K, 62 BB, 3.72 FIP

Pineiro - $7 million - 190 IP, 95 K, 38 BB, 3.83 FIP

Pettitte - $8 million - 205 IP, 141 K, 66 BB, 3.92 FIP

The starters' averages would be: 191 IP @ 3.81 FIP

That only adds up to 955 IP out of my starting rotation, and typically staffs throw around 1450 per season. My bullpen will have to work 500 IP or so. Therefore:

Bullpen:

I will start out with Justin Duchscherer because he can be a workhorse out of the pen, I would assume, based on him throwing 140+ innings this past season, and him having worked out of the pen before. He would also fill my "Brad Thompson" role of spot starter when someone goes down with an injury. Rich Harden would be my closer. I think he'd be a rock in that role, assuming he could stay healthier with it. Other than that, I go with all the Type A's...and for a reason after looking at stats.

Spot Starter/Long Relief

Duchscherer - $4 million - 100 IP - 83 K, 22 BB, 3.76 FIP

Middle Relief

Darren Oliver - $2 million - 75 IP - 58 K, 23 BB, 4.18 FIP (L)

Kevin Gregg - $3 million - 75 IP - 75 K, 33 BB, 4.39 FIP

Jose Valverde - $4 million - 70 IP - 78 K, 26 BB, 4.01 FIP

Setup Men

Mike Gonzalez - $4 million - 60 IP - 73 K, 27 BB, 3.48 FIP (L)

Rafael Soriano - $4 million - 60 IP - 77 K, 20 BB, 3.52 FIP

Closer

Rich Harden - $5 million - 60 IP - 73 K, 23 BB, 3.53 FIP

The relievers' averages would be: 71 IP @ 3.86 FIP

The pitching staff's totals: 1450 IP @ 3.84 FIP

$63 million was spent on my pitching staff. It has a lot of power arms, which would help out the defense incredibly, with 6 players (5 in the pen) with a K/inn or more. In 1450 innings, the defense would only have to make 3,115 outs (out of 4,350).

My total salary ends up being $148.5 million for the season, but I think we put together a pretty decent team. I wouldn't know how to go about figuring out what each player's WAR or how many wins this team should get next year, (so if anyone wants to do that (hint, hint) please go ahead) but I would be willing to wager that if everyone were to stay healthy playing at this level, the team should do more than just "alright."

To bring this full circle:

There are some pretty decent options out there this season on the free agent market. Obviously, the Cardinals have a salary cap put into place by Bill Dewitt and the other owners. Obviously, the conjecture around here is $90-100 million will be that cap. We cannot be sure. There are many options listed above and many possible ways to put these pieces together with what the Cards already have. I am not going to project, here, what we are going to put together in St. Louis; however, there are quite a few options out there.

Carpenter With Long Rest

stlfan — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 17:09:58 -0000

Somebody posed the question of how Chris Carpenter does after 5+ days off a long time ago on a game thread. I had time this morning, so I looked it up thought this was worthy of a fan post...so here goes:

This does not including games coming off of the DL or opening day games because I believe it would throw off the numbers a bit since those are closely monitored pitch count type games, usually.

2009

5 days rest

June 20 - STL @ KC - 7 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 6 K, 2 BB (105 pitches)

August 7 - STL @ PIT - 8 IP, 9 hits, 4 ER, 4 K, 1 BB (111 pitches)

6 days rest

July 17 - ARIZ @ STL - 8 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 7 K, 1 BB (103 pitches)

2008

5 days rest

August 5 - LA @ STL - 5 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB (51 pitches)

2006

5 days rest

April 14 - CIN @ STL - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB (114 pitches)

July 4 - STL @ ATL - 5 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2 K, 1 BB (74 pitches)

July 25 - STL @ COL - 7 1/3 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 4 K, 3 BB (112 pitches)

August 15 - CIN @ STL - 9 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 6 K, 0 BB (107 pitches)

August 26 - CHC @ STL - 8 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB (100 pitches)

September 1 - PIT @ STL - 9 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (102 pitches)

6 days rest

June 13 - STL @ PIT - 7 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 13 K, 3 BB (111 pitches)

2005

5 days rest

April 16 - STL @ MIL - 6 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 K, 3 BB (101 pitches)

April 27 - MIL @ STL - 7 2/3 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 12 K, 0 BB (118 pitches)

May 18 - STL @ PHI - 6 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 7 K, 4 BB (99 pitches)

May 29 - WASH @ STL - 7 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (108 pitches)

June 14 - STL @ TOR - 9 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 BB (95 pitches)

June 20 - STL @ CIN - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 8 K, 2 BB (109 pitches)

July 1 - COL @ STL - 7 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 2 BB (112 pitches)

July 28 - STL @ SD - 7 IP, 5 hits, 3 ER, 5 K, 1 BB (109 pitches)

August 13 - STL @ CHC - 9 IP, 8 hits, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (109 pitches)

August 19 - SF @ STL - 8 IP, 9 hits, 4 R (3 ER), 5 K, 0 BB (94 pitches)

10 days rest (first game after All-Star Break)

July 17 - HOU @ STL - 9 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 0 BB (97 pitches)

2004

5 days rest

April 29 - PHI @ STL - 7 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 7 K, 3 BB (89 pitches)

May 15 - FLA @ STL - 7 1/3 IP, 4 hits, 0 ER, 5 K, 2 BB (92 pitches)

May 21 - STL @ CHC - 6 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 4 K, 0 BB (88 pitches)

June 18 - CIN @ STL - 7 1/3 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 7 K, 1 BB (103 pitches)

June 24 - CHC @ STL - 8 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB (120 pitches)

July 5 - CIN @ STL - 7 1/3 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB (100 pitches)

July 11 - CHC @ STL - 3 2/3 IP, 9 hits, 6 ER, 6 K, 2 BB (72 pitches)

July 30 - STL @ SF - 6 2/3 IP, 7 hits, 4 ER, 3 K, 2 BB (86 pitches)

August 5 - MON (WASH) @ STL - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB (108 pitches)

August 26 - STL @ CIN - 8 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 11 K, 1 BB (122 pitches)

September 1 - SD @ STL - 7 IP, 6 hits, 1 ER, 5 K, 1 BB (104 pitches)

September 12 - STL @ LA - 5 IP, 8 hits, 6 R (5 ER), 6 K, 1 BB (109 pitches)

September 18 - ARIZ @ STL - 3 1/3 IP, 3 hits, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB (47 pitches)

---(got injured for remainder of year/playoffs in previous game)---

6 days rest

May 28 - STL @ HOU - 8 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4 K, 3 BB (115 pitches)

7 days rest

July 19 - STL @ CHC - 8 IP, 12 hits, 4 ER, 5 K, 0 BB (97 pitches)

8 days rest

April 23 - STL @ MIL - 6 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 5 K, 2 BB (85 pitches)

9 days rest

August 20 - PIT @ STL - 7 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB (108 pitches)

Here are the averages for the following amounts of days rest between starts:

Days Rest Between Starts	Total Games Pitched	IP/G	H/G	ER/G	K/G	BB/G
Totals as a Cardinal	120	6.82	5.95	2.23	5.62	1.35
5	32	7.11	5.31	1.91	7.94	1.19
6+	7	7.57	5.57	1.00	7.43	1.57

Based on this data, I would conclude that Carpenter is significantly better than normal (a third of an IP more per game, more than half a hit less, more than a quarter of an earned run less, and over 1.5X the K:BB) with 5 days rest, however the effects do not always carry over when pitching on more than 5 days rest.

Starting Pitchers - What makes a #1/#2?

stlfan — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 17:45:46 -0000

I saw a study similar to this done either last offseason or one before, but I hadn't seen anything about this since. I wanted to take a look at five major statistics for a starting pitcher to see what makes a great starter. Since there are 30 teams, I am going to look at 60 pitchers, 30 of which should be #1 starters and 30 of which should be #2 starters.

The five categories that I am going to look at are: innings pitched, ERA, FIP, WHIP, and K:BB.

(Note: I only used players who qualified for the leader board.)

In 2008, the top 30 (#1 starters), the top 60 starters (#1 and #2 starters combined), and the 31-60 starters (#2 starters) had an average of these stats:

IP - 211 2/3, 202 1/3, and 193
ERA - 3.22, 3.59, and 3.97
FIP - 3.43, 3.78, and 4.14
WHIP - 1.170, 1.242, and 1.314
K:BB - 3.64, 2.97, and 2.30

In 2007, the top 30 (#1 starters), the top 60 starters (#1 and #2 starters combined), and the 31-60 starters (#2 starters) had an average of these stats:

IP - 215 2/3, 205 1/3, and 194 2/3
ERA - 3.39, 3.79, and 4.20
FIP - 3.58, 3.97, and 4.35
WHIP - 1.183, 1.268, and 1.353
K:BB - 3.48, 2.82, and 2.17

In 2006, the top 30 (#1 starters), the top 60 starters (#1 and #2 starters combined), and the 31-60 starters (#2 starters) had an average of these stats:

IP - 219 1/2, 209 1/3, and 199 1/3
ERA - 3.58, 3.96, and 4.35
FIP - 3.68, 4.02, and 4.37
WHIP - 1.210, 1.282, and 1.355
K:BB - 3.58, 2.87, and 2.17

The three year average for the 5 categories are as follows:

IP - 215 2/3, 205 2/3, and 195 2/3
ERA - 3.40, 3.78, and 4.17
FIP - 3.56, 3.92, and 4.29
WHIP - 1.188, 1.264, and 1.341
K:BB - 3.57, 2.89, and 2.21

In other words:

A #1 starter should throw approximately 215 2/3 IP, with a 3.40 ERA (3.56 FIP), a 1.188 WHIP and a K:BB of 3.57.

A #2 starter should throw approximately 195 2/3 IP, with a 4.17 ERA (4.29 FIP), a 1.341 WHIP and a K:BB of 2.21.

Someone who throws 205 2/3 IP, with a 3.78 ERA (3.92 FIP), a 1.264 WHIP and a K:BB of 2.89 would be a #1/#2 "tweener."

The problem with these averages is that they are nearly unattainable. In those 3 seasons I looked at above, only 12 individual seasons met the above goals (one by our own Chris Carpenter in 2006). In the last ten years, only 37 individual seasons have met those goals set by a #1 starter above (Carpenter in '05 and '06 actually).

As for the "tweener" pitchers, there have been 28 in the past 3 seasons (including '06 Carp) meeting the numbers above. In the past ten years, there have been 79 pitchers that fit the bill (including '01 Matt Morris, '05 Carp, and '06 Carp).

As for the #2 starting pitchers, there have been 69 pitchers in the last three years to meet the numbers for a #2 starter (including our own '06 Carp, '08 Lohse, and '08 Looper). In the last ten years, 220 pitchers have fit the bill (including '00 and '01 Darryl Kile, '01 and'02 Morris, '01 and '03 Woody Williams, '05 Carp and the 3 seasons mentioned earlier in this paragraph.)

That means that over the last 10 years:

The Cardinals have had two seasons in which they had a clear #1 starter: '05 Carpenter and '06 Carpenter

The Cardinals have had one more season in which they arguably had another #1 starter: '01 Matt Morris

The Cardinals have had 7 more seasons in which they had clear #2 starters: '00 with Kile, '01 with Kile and Williams, '02 with Morris, '03 with Williams, and '08 with Lohse and Looper.

10 players fitting the bill in 10 years (for a clear #2 starter) does not seem like much, but when you take into account that only 220 players met all of the criteria, that means the Cardinals have had 1/22 the players, and by the averages they should have had 1/30.

Lastly, looking at all of the years in the history of the game (from 1885 on) only 152 players have met the criteria above to be a #1 starter and only 425 (including the 152 above) met the criteria to be "tweeners."

Thanks, if you got through all of that. Let me know how I can make this better!

Pitching Rotation Down the Stretch

stlfan — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 17:48:21 -0000

I noticed in a thread recently someone said that the Cardinals have 9 off days in the next 9 weeks. This would lead to the Cardinals being able to use their 5th starter less than everyone else using theirs. I figured it would be a good time to check out which starters could/should start which games.

Obviously, you want your best to start as many as possible. Right after the All-Star Break with a completely fresh bullpen, i would choose to start Carpenter since he usually pitches shorter than Wainwright, thus allowing the bullpen to use their plenty rested arms. My rotation down the stretch (minus any trades that may or may not occur) would be:

Carpenter

Wainwright

Pineiro

Lohse

Wellemeyer/Thompson/Boggs/Mortenson/etc. (whomever they decide to keep/put in the rotation)

Carpenter would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:

7/17 v. ARIZ, 7/22 @ HOU, 7/27 v. LAD, 8/1 v. HOU, 8/7 @ PITT, 8/12 v. CIN, 8/17 @ LAD, 8/22 @ SD, 8/27 v. HOU, 9/1 v. MIL, 9/6 @ PIT, 9/11 v. ATL, 9/16 v. FLA, 9/21 @ HOU, 9/26 @ COL, and 10/1 @ CIN.

That's 16 more games for Carpenter.

4 against HOU, 2 against LAD, CIN and PITT, 1 each against ARIZ, COL, FLA, ATL, MIL, and SD.

9 of his final 16 games would be against the division. He would also then be set to pitch any time after 10/5, thus starting a playoff series should we make it.

Wainwright would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:

7/18 v. ARIZ, 7/23 @ WASH, 7/28 v. LAD, 8/2 v. HOU, 8/8 @ PITT, 8/14 v. SD, 8/19 @LAD, 8/25 v. HOU, 8/30 v. WASH, 9/4 @ PITT, 9/9 @ MIL, 9/14, v. FLA, 9/19 v. CHC, 9/25 @ COL, 9/29 @ CIN, and 10/4 v. MIL.

That's 16 more games for Waino.

2 against HOU, LAD, MIL, WASH, PITT, and 1 each against CHC, COL, CIN, ARIZ, SD, and FLA.

8 of his final 16 games would be against the division. Hopefully, we would have the division wrapped up before his 10/4 start, so that he could get extra rest and be ready for game two of the playoffs. If not, then he'd be ready by the 9th at the latest, by game 3 or 4 of the first round.

Pineiro would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:

7/19 v. ARIZ, 7/24 @ PHI, 7/29 v. LAD, 8/4 @ NYM, 8/9 @ PITT, 8/15 v. SD, 8/20 @ SD, 8/26 v. HOU, 9/2 v. MIL, 9/7 @ MIL, 9/12 v. ATL, 9/18 v. CHC, 9/23 @ HOU, and 9/30 @ CIN.

That's 14 more games for Pineiro.

2 against MIL, SD, and HOU. 1 each against ARIZ, PHI, LAD, NYM, PITT, ATL, CHC, and CIN.

7 of his final 14 games would be against the division. He would then be set to pitch any time on or after 10/5. If there is a one game playoff, he would probably be the guy to go on the 5th. If not, he's ready for game 2 of the first round.

Lohse would pitch on the following dates vs. the following clubs:

7/20 @ HOU, 7/25 @ PHI, 7/30 v. LAD, 8/5 @ NYM, 8/10 v. CIN, 8/16 v. SD, 8/21 @ SD, 8/28 v. WASH, 9/3 v. MIL, 9/8 @ MIL, 9/13 v. ATL, 9/20 v. CHC, 9/27 @ COL, and 10/2 v. MIL.

That's 14 more games for Lohse.

3 against MIL. 2 against SD. 1 each against WASH, HOU, PHI, LAD, NYM, CIN, ATL, CHC, and COL.

6 of his final 14 games would be against the division. He would be set to pitch any time after 10/7. If we need a 4th pitcher in the first round, he's our man and he'd be ready.

That leaves one man to go. 5th pitcher/combo would only have 11 chances to pitch down the stretch, on the following dates vs. the following clubs:

7/21 @ HOU, 7/26 @ PHI, 7/31 v. HOU, 8/11 v. CIN, 8/18 @ LAD, 8/23 @SD, 8/29 v. WASH, 9/5 @ PITT, 9/15 v. FLA, 9/22 @ HOU, and 10/3 v. MIL.

That's 3 against HOU and 1 each against PHI, CIN, LAD, SD, WASH, PITT, FLA, and MIL.

6 of those 11 games would be against the division. Those 11 games, in my opinion, should be started by whomever TLR believes has the best chance of winning the game that day. This should especially be the case because of the lack of consistency in days off between starts.

Endnote: Obviously, I was a little late in getting this up, as we have already won the series against the D'Backs to start the "second half" of the season. Those first three games sized up about how I thought they would go. I think getting 46 starts from the big 3 (Carp, Waino, and Pineiro) down the stretch would be absolutely HUGE for this ballclub and could definitely land them in the crapshoot known as the postseason.

Trade Deadline Deals - Not this year, don't worry!

stlfan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 03:50:49 -0000

Within today's main post someone made an interesting point; or at least it seemed interesting to me. The poster asked the question (and I paraphrase) "When was the last time the Cardinals were sellers?" I figured that I would take a look at as many trades as I could for as long back as I could handle.

2009 season
December 4, 2008 - Traded 2 PTBNLs (Mark Worrell and Luke Gregorson) to San Diego for Khalil Greene. Buyers.

2008 season
July 26 - Traded Anthony Reyes to Cleveland for Luis Pedermo. Neither buyer nor seller.
January 14 - Traded Scott Rolen to Toronto for Troy Glaus. Neither buyer nor seller.
December 15, 2007 - Traded Jim Edmonds to San Diego for David Freese. Neither buyer nor seller. Seller, if I had to choose one there.

2007 season
July 31 - Traded a PTBNL (Sean Danielson) to Boston for Joel Pineiro. Buyers.
June 22 - Traded a PTBNL (Chris Lambert) to Detroit for Mike Maroth. Buyers.

2006 season
July 31 - Traded Rich Scalamandre to Atlanta for Jorge Sosa. Buyers.
July 30 - Traded Hector Luna to Cleveland for Ronnie Belliard. Buyers.
July 5 - Traded Terry Evans to Anaheim for Jeff Weaver. Buyers.
December 7, 2005 - Traded Ray King to Colorado for Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles. Neither buyers nor sellers.

2005 season
December 18, 2004 - Traded Daric Barton, Kiko Calero, and Danny Haren (ouch) to Oakland for Mark Mulder. Buyers. (or so we thought...)

2004 season
August 6 - Traded Jason Burch and PTBNLs (Luis Martinez and Chris Narveson) to Colorado for Larry Walker. Buyers.
March 21 - Traded Matt Duff to Boston for Tony Womack. Buyers.
December 31, 2003 - Traded JD Drew and Eli Marrero to Atlanta for Jason Marquis, Ray King, and Adam Wainwright. Both buyers and sellers.
November 21, 2003 - Traded Tino Martinez to Tampa Bay for PTBNL (John-Paul Davis) and Evan Rust. Sellers. This is the first example I could find going back. Davis and Rust never made the bigs. Martinez went on to put up an .823 OPS for Tampa that year and hit 23 homers and had 20 doubles. This was a salary dump, BUT the big thing here is that it was in the offseason. It still was not a trade deadline dump.

Before that, the next salary dump/sale I could find was trading Dustin Hermanson to Boston for Dustin Brisson, Luis Alfonso Garcia, and Rick Asadoorian. None of them made the majors as well. Again, this was an off-season deal. (December 15th, 2002.)

The most recent trade deadline dump could be July 31, 2001 when we traded Jason Christiansen to San Francisco for Kevin Joseph. Joseph threw 11 innings in 2002, his only major league experience. The next season was his last in professional baseball. Jason Christiansen, at the time of the trade, had thrown 30 games for the Cardinals that season (and 21 the previous season in a partial season with the Cards). He was having a good year with the Birds on the Bat and finished even better with the Giants later.

Pujols to 3rd

stlfan — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 02:18:06 -0000

I believe that the Cardinals should move Albert Pujols to 3rd base. There, I said it. I figured it would be the easiest way to say it...to just come out and start with it. I believe that the Cardinals should move Albert to 3rd base because it would enable us to improve the third base position's production by adding a first baseman instead. It would also give the team a lot of flexibility defensively.

I would assume that Pujols, within 2-3 years, would become a very good defender at third base. All the man does is impress in everything he puts his mind to doing.
Defensively, Chris Duncan is a decent option at first base. In the outfield, where he currently roams, he is a bad to mediocre option at best.
Defensively, Skip Schumaker is a good to great option in left field. At second base, where he currently roams, he is a bad option.
Defensively, the Walrus, Brett Wallace, projects as a first baseman or a DH, not as he is currently being used at 3rd. Moving Pujols would allow Wallace to be brought up at some point and not have to worry nearly as much about playing defense. He could just, then, learn to rake the MLB pitchers.

Then, the Cardinals could go a myriad directions with trades.

Adam Dunn has been mentioned elsewhere on the site as a trade option. He is in the same boat as Duncan defensively. Dunn brings a bigger name and a bigger bat than Duncan can give us, at least at the moment. I'd prefer to play him at first than clog up an already crowded outfield.
Mark DeRosa has been rumored to be coming to St. Louis, most recently here. He would be a pretty good defender at 2nd base, which would be open by moving Skip back to the outfield. I think his bat projects much better as a second baseman than a 3rd baseman.
Apparently Adrian Gonzalez could be on the block in SD, along with Jake Peavy. Adrian Gonzalez would pretty much keep the 1b defense the same as it is now...and add much more pop than we've seen at third since 2006 with Rolen reasonably healthy.
Matt Holliday has been rumored to (and I paraphrase) "not caring about staying in Oakland." Holliday would represent a big bat in the lineup and the biggest name that could probably be gotten to appease Tony. Holliday is a plus defender. I am assuming that if Holliday is brought in, that one of our current outfielders, not named Ludwick or Rasmus, will be dealt as part of a package deal. I would be fine if both Duncan and Ankiel were sent off for Holliday, leaving us with a Ludwick, Rasmus, Holliday, Skip platoon out there.

I know that there are minuses to moving Pujols. The biggest, first and foremost problem is that nobody but Albert really knows what is up with his right arm. He seems to be healthy right now. I think that now is the time to do it, if there ever is a time. I believe that to keep Albert past 2011 the club will have to be competitive. Albert has expressed the desire to move to 3rd if it helps to keep the team competitive.

Thanks for reading, stlfan.

PS - I do not mind if this becomes the dumping ground of all trade discussion so that we can keep it all in one place...

First-Year Player Draftee Questions

stlfan — Sun, 31 May 2009 23:04:49 -0000

So, over at Vivaelbirdos, I was talking to a few of the Cardinals faithful about the draft. The topic of middle infielders and catchers (which I believe to be our biggest needs in Cardinal Nation, in terms of prospects) that can rake came up. I looked up some basic stats (mainly SLG, OPS, and XBH) on the NCAA.org site and came up with the following people.

Has anyone seen any of them in person? Does anyone go to the school and get to see/hear about them constantly? What do you all know about these kids?

Are they kids who will stick in their current positions, or are they (like Pujols and possibly Brett Wallace before them) kids who will need to change positions in the majors based on their not so hot fielding prowess? Does their power project to the majors? Do they have any speed? etc.

Thanks for any responses that I get.

Bryan Marquez – 2B – NMSU
2009: 215 AB, .414 – 83 runs, 14 doubles, 22 homers, 85 rbi, 49:29 BB:K .534 OBP, .795 SLG

Gary Helmick – 2B – Towson
2009: 228 AB, .430 – 72 runs, 12 doubles, 9 triples, 17 homers, 51 RBI, 32:23 BB:K .502 OBP, .785 SLG

Tommy Nurre – INF – Miami (OH)
2009: 202 AB, .406 – 53 runs, 18 doubles, 1 triple, 17 homers, 54 RBI, 28:34 BB:K .498 OBP, .757 SLG
16 steals, 1 caught

Jordan Kreke – SS – Eastern Ill.
2009: 188 AB, .394 – 50 runs, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 13 homers, 59 RBI, 8:22 BB:K .433 OBP, .718 SLG
5 steals, 0 caught

Nate Freiman – INF – Duke
2009: .352, 47 runs, 15 doubles, 20 homers, 59 RBI .463 OBP, .703 SLG

Hayden Johnston – INF – Ohio
2009: .393, 61 runs, 25 doubles, 16 homers, 47 RBI, .448 OBP, .701 SLG

Matt Vern – INF – TCU
2009: .369, 56 runs, 15 homers, 45 RBI, .474 OBP, .699 SLG

J.T. Wise – C – Oklahoma
2009: .374, 17 homers, 61 RBI, .703 SLG

2009-2010

stlfan — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:53:40 -0000

While everyone else is busy being disappointed by the St. Louis Blues early playoff ouster at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks or celebrating the incredible comeback that the St. Louis Blues were able to make to even get into the post-season for 4 meaningful contests, John Davidson, Larry Pleau, Al MacInnis, Doug Armstrong, Andy Murray, et al will be figuring out (starting today) how to make this team better for next year. They'll be figuring out how to get the St. Louis Blues to play like they did for the last 38 games of hockey instead of the first 44 games of hockey. I figured that I would take a stab at what the team could look like, barring freak injuries, come October.

First off, let's look at who is leaving. According to this site, as of right now, Keith Tkachuk is no longer a Blue. He does not have a contract going into next season. Manny Legace will, most likely, be joining the scrap heap. Dan Hinote and Brad Winchester are the other two UFA's on the roster at the moment. On another site, it is stated that Mike Weaver and Trent Whitfield are free agents as well. Those two sites only show UNrestricted free agents (UFAs).

For the Blues, there are several restricted free agents, as well. This means the Blues have the option of matching any offers made to these players. I'll list players that I think could make an impact on the 2009-2010 roster only: BJ Crombeen, Chris Holt, Jay McClement, Roman Polak, Chris Porter, Steve Regier, Marek Shwarz, Steve Wagner, and Jeff Woywitka.

At goaltender, Chris Mason has earned everything he's ever wanted: A starting goaltender's job in the National Hockey League. 57 games with a .916 save percentage, plus 21 out of the last 25 games (not including the playoffs) giving up 3 or less goals, will give you a good chance to play every day the following season. Ben Bishop, I believe should and will be backing up Mason. I could see Chris Holt giving Bishop a run for his money, but I'd rather see Holt in a full season starting in Peoria, personally.

On defense, the Blues have a lot of talent. There are 5 guys who, in my mind, are sure bets to make the team on defense. Erik Johnson should be back in form by the time October rolls around. If that is the case, he very well could be the top d-man. Alex Pietrangelo, especially for a 19 year old, played well in his "cup o' joe," to steal a term from baseball players getting a quick look at what the big leagues are like. He should be a top 4 defenseman. Barret Jackman has had a rough couple of years, compared to the beginning of his career. I think that with two other really good defensemen (and a good surrounding cast back there), he will step up his play in a reduced minute role. He will be in his age 28 season and should be rounding into his prime for the next 3-5 years. I hope that the toll of 18-23 minutes per night for the past 3 years playing on a bad team (minus the tail end of this season) won't scar his future seasons. Carlo Colaiacovo led all Blues defensemen with 29 points this season. He had a rough playoff run, but most of the Blues players did. Eric Brewer is still the Captain of this team for the moment, so there is no way to keep him off the ice either. The rest of the defensemen are battling for one spot every night.

Jay McKee was the top d-man in +/- this year, with Tyson Strachan finishing 2nd in only 30 games played. Jeff Woywitka was third in +/- and 3rd in points (for Blues d-men). Other than them, Roman Polak played some good minutes (and some bad) in the playoffs, and Steve Wagner and Mike Weaver played a bit in the regular season, with Weaver seeing time int he playoffs, too.

At forward, Brad Boyes led the team in goals, assists, and points. David Backes was second on the team in goals and points. David Perron was second on the team in assists and third in points. Add in a healthy Paul Kariya and Andy McDonald and you have a pretty decent top 5. Either Patrik Berglund or TJ Oshie round out a good top two lines, while the other will start at center on the 3rd line (unless Andy Murray decides to split up this top 7 talent and go with a 3-line rotation to keep players more fresh.)

Jay McClement, BJ Crombeen, and Alex Steen make another pretty good line, but that only gives you a top 10 and, of course, 12 forwards are needed.

Unless FA acquisitions are made, I could see DJ King and St. Louisan Cam Janssen battling out for a regular lineup spot on the fourth line, especially in the grind of a long season and someone taking a cheap shot at a top 7 player from above.

Someone else who knows the minor league talent better than I could help me out here. Going off of who played in St. Louis this year, one spot will be left wide open to be won by one of the following: David Koci, Steve Regier, Cam Paddock, Chris Porter, and Yan Stastny. I can't say that I'm thrilled with any of those options.

Onto the Free Agents. This site shows one version of the Top 30 free agents in the summer of 2009 and this site I believe could list everyone. Dominic Moore looks like a St. Louis Blue. He is a checking liner in effort. Enough said. Alex Burrows, with whom Blues fans are now familiar, could be a force on offense, especially with Oshie, Perron, Backes, etc clearing the boards and crease for him. I don't think the Blues will go after the Sedins because they'll cost too much money. Steve Bernier is a restricted free agent, meaning Vancouver could match an offer. For some reason, I thought they re-signed him last year to a 2 or 3 year deal.

The biggest impact on the defensive end could be Jay Bouwmeester. I would love to see him round out our top 6 defensemen. That would be an incredible defensive corps.

If anyone knows anything different than I, or if you agree or disagree, I would love to see comments and have a chance to forsee next year's roster. Thanks!