Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf (via kooncerAZ)

Watching this clip makes me love Peyton even more.  His personality and his confidence are two of the things that makes him such a unique person, and is a key cog to his success in the NFL.  

 

But if you really start thinking about that statement, you may be slightly concerned.  15 years?  Is this a hint on how long he wants to play?  Obviously we know he is too classy to cling to a career of controversy (ahem...Favre).  We know he loves the Colts, and the Colts love him, and they are going to get a deal done at the end of this season that will likely be his last contract.  But how long will it be?  2 years, 3 years, 5 years (hopefully)?

I'm not saying he's on the decline by any means.  In fact, quite the contrary.  Last season was arguably one of his best seasons of his career.  But Peyton is 34 years old, and this is his 13th season.  And he explicitly said he was going to kick someone's butt for 15 years.  Does this mean he only wants to play two more seasons?  

And what does this mean for the future of Colts?  Curtis Painter is obviously not the answer.  We know this for sure.  It would be wise to start looking at some possibilities.  After the jump, we'll examine some possible scenarios.

Poll

Where do you think our next QB will come from?

8%

Trade for a young quarterback to groom

32 votes

8%

Draft a late-round quarterback and hope we get lucky

29 votes

46%

Draft an early-round quarterback to groom

167 votes

6%

Nothing. In Curtis Painter we trust.

23 votes

3%

Something else.

12 votes

26%

None of the above. Peyton will never retire.

94 votes

357 votes | Poll has closed

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I read an article today on NFL.com written by Michael Lombardi, and again it really makes me question his ability to analyze players in the NFL.  Of course, I try to remember that everyone is entitled to their own opinions, and that talent scouting is more of an art than a science.  Nevertheless, when I see players like Antwan Odom (for those of you who say "who?", he is an aging DE who has had two 8 sack seasons for the Bengals) rated as a blue chip player and players such as Jeff Saturday (a perennial pro-bowl center) rated only as a red chip player, it makes me furious. You can read the article here for yourself.  I just wanted to post this because regardless of what Lombardi's opinions are, it is an interesting article to read.  After the jump, you can see my (unbiased) opinions on the Colts' blue and red chip players (possibly even bonus material), and I would love to hear others' opinions as well.

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"There is some concern Colts safety Bob Sanders might never be able to play football again, with his shoulder and bicep issues. He reduced his contract, but his rehab has been slow."

~Michael Lombardi, NFL.com on July 18, 2010.

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via i.a.cnn.net

Many Colts fans would agree that staying healthy has been one of the biggest thorns in our side for a while now. Looking back, some of our biggest playmakers - Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney, Gary Brackett, Marlin Jackson and several more have caught the injury bug.  As a result, the Colts' roster is beginning to look like an annual defensive backs and defensive tackles convention.  This started a line of questioning that I began to ask myself.  Why are so many players getting hurt?  Is it something our trainers are doing? Is it our practice schedule?  These are all questions that I am in the process of researching, but while doing the research, I came across a list that I though might be interesting: our most durable players.  Note: This list will not include players who are no longer with the Colts. (Marvin Harrison, Hunter Smith, etc.)

Durability is a key component to success.  If you can't play the game, you can't contribute, it's as simple as that. Of course with the season getting longer and longer, it's more difficult to judge how much is attributed to "fragility" and how much just comes from bad luck or extended bouts of abuse. To judge who would be deemed most durable, I calculate the games started and divide it by the number of games that was possible for them to start.  I also do not count seasons in which they have not earned the starting spot (for example, Reggie Wayne playing as a replacement for Ismail or Jeff Saturday playing at OG in place of other injured players). [X divided by X] = appearance rate. Most durable status would require that you have at least a 90% appearance rate with at least four seasons as the full-time starter. So without further ado, I present to you...the durables!

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Here's the draft order! Picks are based on typical scoring rules. We will assume two spots for QBs, two for RBs, three for WRs, one TE, and a defense.  We will also have four extra roster spots. If you rec this article, it'll stay at the top for easier access.

1. Kanadianhoser
2. KingRichard
3. BROWNdude
4. shake n bake
5. Colteyes
6. stuart0908
7. fpacheco
8. LukeNukem

Good luck! Post em here, and we'll see how quickly we can through these.

Kanadianhoser, you're up!

First Round Results (I will update these with each person's picks as often as possible).

1. RB Adrian Peterson (KH)
2. RB Michael Turner   (KR)
3. RB Brandon Jacobs (Bd)
4. RB Brian Westbrook (SnB)
5. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (CE)
6. RB Steven Jackson (stu)
7. WR Larry Fitzgerald  (fpac)
8. RB Matt Forte   (LNM)
9.  RB DeAngelo Williams (CH)
10. RB Chris Johnson (Bam)
11. RB Frank Gore (FC)
12. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (CFAW)

Second Round Results

13. WR Andre Johnson (CFAW)
14. RB Clinton Portis (FC)
15. WR Randy Moss (Bam)
16. RB Steve Slaton (CH)
17. WR Calvin Johnson (LNM)
18. QB Drew Brees (fpac)
19. RB Marion Barber (stu)
20. QB Peyton Manning (CE)
21. WR Reggie Wayne (SnB)
22. QB Tom Brady (Bd)
23. WR Steve Smith (KR)
24. WR Marques Colston (KH)

Third Round Results

25.  WR Anquan Boldin (KH)
26.  WR Roddy White (KR)
27. WR Anthony Gonzalez (Bd)
28.  QB Phillip Marmalard Rivers (SnB)
29.  RB Kevin Smith (CE)
30. RB Ronnie Brown (stu)
31. RB Knowshon Moreno (fpac)
32.  WR Greg Jennings (LNM)
33.  WR Wes Welker (CH)
34. QB  Kurt Warner (Bam)
35. WR Brandon Marshall (FC)
36. TE Jason Witten (CFAW)

Fourth Round Results

37. WR Dwayne Bowe (CFAW)
38.  QB Aaron Rodgers (FC)
39. TE Dallas Clark (Bam)
40. QB Matt Ryan (CH)
41.  RB Pierre Thomas (LNM)
42.  RB Darren McFadden(fpac)
43. WR Braylon Edwards (stu)
44. WR T.J. Houshmanzedeh(CE)
45.  QB Donovan McNabb (SnB)
46.  WR DeSean Jackson(Bd)
47.  RB Ryan Grant (KR)
48.  QB Tony Romo (KH)

Fifth Round Results

49.  WR Vincent Jackson (KH)
50.  QB Jay Cutler (KR)
51. TE Tony Gonzalez (Bd)
52.  WR Terrel Owens (SnB)
53. RB Larry Johnson (CE)
54. QB Carson Palmer (stu)
55. WR Roy Williams (fpac)
56. QB Matt Schaub (LNM)
57. WR Bernard Berrian (CH)
58.  RB Willie Parker (Bam)
59. QB Eli Manning (FC)
60. RB Marshawn Lynch (CFAW)

Sixth Round Results

61. QB Kyle Orton (CFAW)
62. WR Antonio Bryant (FC)
63. WR Santonio Holmes(Bam)
64. QB Matt Hasselbeck(CH)
65. WR Lance Moore (LNM)
66. QB Matt Cassel (fpac)
67. WR Chad Ochocinco
68. WR Hines Ward (CE)
69.  RB Joseph Addai (SnB)
70. RB Felix Jones (Bd)
71.  RB Jonathan Stewart(KR)
72. RB Thomas Jones(KH)

Seventh Round Results

73.  RB LenDale White (KH)
74.  WR Devin Hester (KR)
75. QB Brett Favre(Bd)
76.  WR Eddie Royal (SnB)
77. QB Trent Edwards (CE)
78. WR Derrick Mason (stu)
79. RB Reggie Bush(fpac)
80. RB Derrick Ward (LNM)
81. TE Antonio Gates (CH)
82. QB Chad Pennington (Bam)
83. TE Owen Daniels (FC)
84.WR Earl Bennett

Eighth Round Results

85. QB Ben Roethlisberger
86. (FC)
87. (Bam)
88. (CH)
89. (LNM)
90. (fpac)
91. (stu)
92. (CE)
93. (SnB)
94. (Bd)
95. (KR)
96. (KH)

Each year we have a new class of rookies entering the NFL through the draft and through free agency, and some picks are busts and some are not.  Usually within a few years we know whether they are a real contributor to their team or not.  So I got an interesting idea.  What if the NFL could not come up with a new collective bargaining agreement  and the NFL was ended?  What if every current NFL player got put into a pool and there was a new draft. Who would be the first 25 players drafted?

I'm just really interested to hear people's opinions about this.  I think there are several obvious choices, but then there are some choices that might be a little controversial.  Here is my list of the top 25 players drafted in no specific order

Quarterbacks - Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers

Runningbacks - Adrian Peterson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams

Wide Receivers - Larry Fitgerald, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson

Offensive Linemen - Joe Thomas, Walter Jones, Michael Roos, Jason Peters, Ryan Clady, Jordan Gross

Defensive Ends - Dwight Freeney, DeMarcus Ware, Mario Williams

Linebackers - Patrick Willis, Ray Lewis

Defensive Backs - Ed Reed

Man, that was tougher than I thought. I REALLY wanted to put Bob Sanders on this list, and I think he would probably be #26, but I'm afraid his history of injuries would be enough to make him slide to #26.

I'm really intrigued to hear others' opinions on this.  You're the GM for the draft of a lifetime.  Good luck!

I am just going around trying to get people's impressions of who will be starting where for the 2009 NFL season come week 1.  Any information you can give about any position would be great, and it would be even better if you could break it down by all positions.   I am just curious to see how many positions are pretty much a lock and how many are still up in the air?  Here is my preliminary depth chart from what I've read.  Please let me know any errors I have in judgement or positions that are wrong.  There are still some big holes in this chart, but if there are people that need to be added, let me know and I will add them.

QB - David Garrard, Todd Bouman, Paul Smith
RB - Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings, Chauncey Washington, Alvin Pearman
FB - Greg Jones, Montell Owens, Brock Bolen
WR - Torry Holt, Mike Walker, Dennis Northcutt, Jarrett Dillard, Nate Hughes, Tiquan Underwood, Maurice Dupree
TE - Mercedes Lewis,
LT - Eugene Monroe, Jordan Black
LG - Vince Manuwai, Uchu Nwaneri
C - Brad Meester, Cecil Newton, Drew Miller
RG - Tony Pashos, Drew Miller,
RT - Eben Britton, Tony Pashos
RE - Derrick Harvey, Jeremy Mincey
LE - Reggie Hayward, Quentin Groves
DT - John Henderson, Terrence Knighton, Attiyah Ellison
SLB - Clint Ingram
MLB - Justin Durant
WLB - Daryl Smith
CB - Rashean Mathis, Brian Williams, Derek Cox,
FS - Reggie Nelson, Sean Considine
SS - Marlon McCree, Michael Desormeaux
K - Josh Scobee
P - Steve Weatherford, Adam Podlesh

Looking back at the history of the Texans, there have been more bright spots than people give them credit for.  After season records of 4-12, 5-11, 7-9, 2-14, and 6-10, they quickly got a bad rep in the NFL as one of the worst teams.  I think that title has formally been reclaimed by the Detroit Lions, and how quickly people want to jump on the bandwagon now that they have finished two straight seasons at 8-8.  The 2009 regular season looks to be another season of promise for the Texans, in which they could finish with 9 or more wins for the first time in team history.  But back before the success that they are experiencing now, there were many players that were very good in the time they were with the Texans. 

Domanick (Davis) Williams was just one such player.  He is currently the Houston Texans' leading rusher in team history with 3,195 yards . He changed his name during the 2006 season from Davis to Williams for some strange reason.

"I just changed Davis to Williams. I wasn’t really a (Davis). It was my older brother’s Dad’s last name and whatever happened I ended up with Davis. So now that I have kids of my own, a little boy and a little girl, ‘Spike’ (Domanick, Jr.) and Liana, I have to change my name to what it really is, and it’s Williams."

Whatever that means.  Anywho, I will refer to him as Davis throughout the rest of this article because it's shorter and that's the only name I heard him being referred to in the NFL.

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I am just going around trying to get people's impressions of who will be starting where for the 2009 NFL season come week 1.  Any information you can give about any position would be great, and it would be even better if you could break it down by all positions.   I am just curious to see how many positions are pretty much a lock and how many are still up in the air?  Here is my preliminary depth chart from what I've read.  Please let me know any errors I have in judgement or positions that are wrong.

QB - Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky, Alex Brink
RB - Steve Slaton, Chris Brown, Ryan Moats, Arian Foster
FB - Vonta Leach, Boomer Grigsby
WR - Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, David Anderson, Jacoby Jones, Darnell Jenkins
TE - Owen Daniels, Joel Dreesen, Anthony Hill (R), James Casey (R)
LT - Duane Brown, Rashard Butler
LG - Chester Pitts, Kasey Studdard
C - Chris Myers, Antoine Caldwell (R), Chris White
RG - Mike Briesel, Antoine Caldwell (R)
RT - Eric Winston, Rashad Butler
RE - Mario Williams, Connor Barwin (R)
LE - Antonio Smith, Tim Bulman, Stanley McClover
DT - Amobi Okoye, DelJuan Robinson, Shaun Cody
NT - Travis Johnson, Frank Okam
SLB - Brian Cushing (R), Zach Diles
MLB - DeMeco Ryans, Buster Davis, Kevin Bentley
WLB - Zach Diles, Xavier Adibi, Cato June
CB - Dunta Robinson, Jacques Reeves, Fred Bennett, Antwaun Molden, Glover Quin (R), Brice McCain (R)
FS - Eugene Wilson, Troy Nolan (R)
SS - Dominique Barber, Nick Ferguson, Brandon Harrison
K - Kris Brown
P - Matt Turk

I have been reading some articles about Adrian Peterson and Pierre Thomas wanting to "bulk up" before next season so that they can punish their defenders.  While this idea is not a new concept by any means, I was really curious about the effects that running backs have endured by adding extra weight to their "natural playing weight". 

Looking back at some examples of players who have done this such as Deuce McAlister and Clinton Portis, you can see that there are mixed results.  Deuce McAlister fully regrets doing it after suffering two torn ACLs, and even Clinton Portis has admitted that he lost breakaway speed when doing this.

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This is just a random observation, but it seems to me that there are more people on this website who are merely readers than contributors.  I have tried to post interesting articles relating to different topics to try to add content to Niner's Nation, but it seems like more people are interested in criticising the works than enjoying it.  There have been several people who have been more than courteous and welcoming to Niner's Nation, but there have also been some I would like to see them try to contribute something in any depth rather than just knocking other's works. 

I'm not trying to be negative only, and maybe it's because of my Bob Sanders jersey avatar, and maybe its because its the offseason, but over at Stampede Blue, we try to be positive and everyone attempts to contribute fanposts worth reading every once in a blue moon. 

Again, like I said, it may not hold any water, but its just a random observation.  And all of your negative ninny's out there could be scaring off any new potential members with your hostility.

That is all.

 Now that some of you have read my article about the statistics of selecting a QB in the first round, you may have come up with other questions or comments.  (and yes I know some of you had very strong feelings about Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins, and Michael Vick, etc).  I actually thought to myself - Yes, the chance of you getting a great NFL QB are pretty low.  Yes the chance of you wasting millions of dollars on someone who will never even contribute to your team is pretty high.

But OH, when those picks do work out, it's a match made in heaven.  Not to mention, some of these QBs are the greatest of ALL TIME, which would never have been possible if you didn't select them in the first round, right?

WRONG!  I have now put in the time (several hours to be precise) and effort to going through and weeding out all the studs selected after the first round of the NFL drafts. This article will be breaking them down, and hopefully you'll gain a little perspective on how insane it seems to select a QB with lots of question marks in the first round, when there have been a lot of GREAT QBs selected later.

The way I determined whether or not the QB was a good deal or not was determined by his success in the playoffs, consistent performance, and his level of play, similar to how the first round quarterbacks were selected, just not with quite as high of standards.  For instance, if a QB had a few good years, but pretty much was never a consistent success, I pretty much did not put them on this list.  I tried to be as realistic as possible for statistics sake, and hopefully the people remaining on this list really are the BARGAIN QBs of the Draft.

 

via cdn2.sbnation.com

 

Doug Flutie knows what it's like to contribute to an NFL team after being drafted late, but unfortunately he didn't quite make this list.

So without further ado, here is our list of successful QBs selected after the first round since the 1970 merger.

 

Year	Name	Drafted By	Round	QB Rating	Comp. %	TDs	INTs	Pass Yards	PBs	SB Wins
1971	Ken Anderson	Bengals	3rd	81.9%	59.3%	197	160	32,838	4	0
1971	Lynn Dickey	Oilers	3rd	70.9%	55.9%	141	179	23,322	0	0
1971	Joe Theismann	Dolphins	4th	77.4%	56.7%	160	138	25,206	2	1
1972	Brian Sipe	Browns	13th	74.8%	56.5%	154	149	23,713	1	0
1973	Ron Jaworski	Rams	2nd	72.8%	53.1%	179	164	28,190	1	0
1973	Joe Ferguson	Bills	3rd	68.4%	52.4%	196	209	29,817	0	0
1973	Dan Fouts	Chargers	3rd	80.2%	58.8%	254	242	43,040	6	0
1974	Danny White	Cowboys	3rd	81.7%	59.7%	155	132	21,959	1	1
1975	Steve Grogan	Patriots	5th	69.6%	52.3%	182	208	26,886	0	0
1977	Steve DeBerg	49ers	10th	74.2%	57.2%	196	204	34,241	0	0
1978	Bill Kenney	Dolphins	12th	77.0%	54.7%	105	86	17,277	1	0
1979	Joe Montana	49ers	3rd	92.3%	63.2%	273	139	40,551	8	4
1981	Neil Lomax	Cardinals	2nd	82.7%	57.6%	136	90	22,771	2	0
1984	Boomer Esiason	Bengals	2nd	81.1%	57.0%	247	184	37,920	4	0
1984	Jeff Hostetler	Giants	3rd	80.5%	58.0%	94	71	16,430	1	1
1984	Jay Shroeder	Redskins	3rd	71.7%	50.8%	114	108	20,063	1	1
1984	Warren Moon	Oilers	undrafted	80.9%	58.4%	291	233	49,325	9	0
1985	Randall Cunningham	Eagles	2nd	81.5%	56.6%	207	134	29,979	4	0
1986	Mark Rypien	Redskins	6th	78.9%	56.1%	115	97	18,473	2	1
1987	Rich Gannon	Patriots	4th	84.7%	60.2%	180	104	28,743	4	0
1987	Steve Beuerlein	Raiders	4th	80.3%	56.9%	147	112	24,046	1	0
1988	Chris Chandler	Colts	3rd	79.1%	58.1%	170	146	28,484	2	0
1988	Stan Humphries	Redskins	6th	75.8%	56.9%	89	84	17,191	0	0
1990	Neil O'Donnell	Steelers	3rd	81.8%	57.8%	120	68	21,690	1	0
1990	Scott Mitchell	Dolphins	4th	75.3%	55.5%	95	81	15,690	0	0
1991	Brett Favre	Falcons	2nd	85.4%	61.6%	464	310	65,127	10	1
1992	Jeff Blake	Jets	6th	78.0%	56.4%	134	99	21,711	1	0
1992	Brad Johnson	Vikings	9th	82.5%	61.7%	166	122	29,054	2	1
1993	Mark Brunell	Packers	5th	84.2%	59.6%	182	106	31,826	3	0
1993	Elvis Grbac	49ers	8th	79.6%	59.1%	99	81	16,775	1	0
1993	Trent Green	Chargers	8th	86.0%	60.6%	162	114	28,475	2	0
1994	Gus Frerotte	Redskins	7th	74.2%	54.7%	114	106	21,291	1	0
1997	Jake Plummer	Cardinals	2nd	74.6%	57.1%	161	161	29,253	1	0
1998	Brian Griese	Broncos	3rd	82.7%	62.7%	119	99	19,440	1	0
1998	Matt Hasselbeck	Packers	6th	84.5%	60.1%	147	94	23,549	3	0
1998	Kurt Warner	Rams	undrafted	93.8%	65.4%	182	114	28,591	4	1
1999	Aaron Brooks	Packers	4th	78.5%	56.5%	123	92	20,261	0	0
1999	Jeff Garcia	49ers	undrafted	87.5%	61.6%	161	83	25,537	4	0
1999	Jake Delhomme	Saints	undrafted	85.1%	59.7%	115	76	17,877	1	0
2000	Marc Bulger	Saints	6th	85.6%	62.6%	117	87	21,345	2	0
2000	Tom Brady	Patriots	6th	92.9%	63.0%	197	86	26,446	4	3
2001	Drew Brees	Chargers	2nd	89.4%	63.9%	168	99	26,258	3	0
2001	Sage Rosenfels	Redskins	4th	81.2%	62.5%	30	29	4,156	0	0
2002	David Garrard	Jaguars	4th	85.4%	61.2%	51	29	9,672	0	0
2002	Shaun Hill	Vikings	undrafted	90.5%	64.0%	18	9	2,547	0	0
2004	Matt Schaub	Falcons	3rd	86.2%	63.5%	30	25	6,317	0	0
2004	Tony Romo	Cowboys	undrafted	94.7%	63.6%	81	46	10,562	2	0
2005	Kyle Orton	Bears	4th	71.1%	55.3%	30	27	5,319	0	0
2005	Derek Anderson	Ravens	6th	75.1%	54.6%	43	35	6,195	1	0
2005	Matt Cassel	Patriots	7th	88.2%	62.9%	23	13	3,946	0	0
2007	Trent Edwards	Bills	3rd	79.1%	61.6%	18	18	4,329	0	0
2008	Chad Henne	Dolphins	2nd	74.0%	58.3%	0	0	67	0	0

 

After looking at this list, I was really AMAZED at the amount of high quality quarterbacks that were not drafted in the first round.  Everyone knows about the obvious picks - Tom Brady in the 6th round (because we're reminded of it about 50 times a season.  But there are 3 hall of fame quarterbacks from this list, and there are several more that probably should be in the hall of fame (Ken Anderson and Randall Cunningham), as well as one of the greatest to ever play this game (Brett Favre). 

The surprising thing to me is the amount of talent that is left over after the draft has settled.  Warren Moon was undrafted (yes, I know it's because everyone was afraid to have a black QB, but still) and so were Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia and Tony Romo and several others who have been a big reason their teams have been successful.

Combined, 10 QBs selected after the first round have helped their teams win a Super Bowl.  Yes, you may be thinking well of course, the sheer number of players selected after the first round is so numerous, of course you're going to have good players selected.  That's my point EXACTLY.  We need to stop guaranteeing QBs who have never even taken a snap in the NFL 40 million dollars!  It's rediculous when so many quality quarterbacks have been taken later and been so successful.      If you ask me, there is just too much pressure of being selected in the first round.

Getting down to it, if you do the math, and not including some of the younger QBs who really haven't proven themselves yet, these QBs have a success rate of about 20%.   I was a little surprised, but this number is lower than the success rate of first round quarterbacks.  Of course, these selections comes with a higher risk, but the reward seems to be higher too. The successful quarterbacks from this list have combined for 101 pro bowl appearances and 15 Super Bowl wins.  Are you kidding me!? That's more than the first round selections!

My point being is that teams who seek a quarterback for their team should do their research, and really dig deep and look at later round quarterbacks, you never know which one is going to shine, and they are going to cost you a lot less money too.

BREAKING DOWN THE DRAFTED QBs BY ROUND

2nd round -15%

3rd round - 25%

4th round - 15%

5th round -4%

6th round -13%

7th round -4%

later than 7th - 12%

undrafted - 12%

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

• Only 7 nfl drafts have never produced a successful quarterback from later rounds.
• The six undrafted QBs on this list have combined for a total of 848 touchdown passes and a QB rating of 88.8%, which is higher than most nfl QBs ever see.
• 6 quarterbacks were drafted in the 8th round of the nfl draft or later
• Joe Montana, nuff said.
• Many of these QBs end up playing for a different team than they were drafted by.
• The Redskins have drafted 5 of the QBs from this list
• The Patriots, Dolphins, and 49ers all have selected 4 QBs from this list. You can tell who uses my philosophy.
• The Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, and Detroit Lions have none from this list.  Could this be why the Lions have never had much success with QBs?
• The Bengals drafted two of the best quarterbacks of all time after the first round.  Maybe they should stick to this instead of continually wasting using their first round picks on quarterbacks.

BBS just posted a story about Marlin Jackson's recovery from a torn ACL here, so how appropriate is it that we cover his contract status with the team next in this edition of "will he stay or will he go".

Marlin Jackson was drafted in Round 1 (Number 29 overall) of the 2005 NFL Draft. He was a four year starter at Michigan, starting 39 out of 45 games at the DB position (he switched between safety and corner at Michigan) and finishing with 195 tackles, 147 solo, two sacks, one FR, 34 passes defensed, and nine interceptions.  At the end of his junior season, he was being projected to be a surefire top 10 pick, but after a subpar senior season in which he was caught out of position at times and a good but not great combine posting, his draft value dropped him, some thought to the point of a second round talent.  Many questioned his timed speed, and though his skills projected to a safety in the NFL.

Nevertheless, Bill Polian saw enough potential in Marlin to make him their first round draft pick, and so far, he has been a solid cornerback for the Colts. Since being drafted by the Colts, he has shown a toughness and willingness to support the run that is not typically seen in cornerbacks.  He also has good technique, and a good break on the ball, and plays faster than his timed speed.  He has the ability to play in zone coverage or man coverage, though zone coverage is better fit to his abilities.

2005
His first season with the Colts he played primarily in nickel coverage and on special teams. He got his first start at LCB when Nick Harper went down with an injury, and finished the season with 52 tackles, 39 solo, four passes defensed, and one interception.  In the postseason, he provided mostly backup DB duties and special teams coverage, but earned no statistics to be noted.

2006
His sophomore season was a season that began scratching the surface of the potential that Marlin had as a versatile DB.  During this season, he started eight games, six at FS, two at SS, and also was used as reserve CB.  His versatility was a key ingredient to keeping the defense on track while injuries plagued the Colts secondary.  He finished the regular season with 76 tackles, 49 solo, one interception and one pass defensed.  In the postseason, he started one game at RCB and also played a reserve role in the secondary, finish with 15 tackles, 12 solo, one pass defensed, and one ENORMOUS interception booting the Patriots out of the playoffs and leading the Colts to Super Bowl XLI. You can see it here it's just beautiful.

2007
During his third season in the league, he finally got the opportunity he wanted to start at RCB, and did it well.  He started all 16 games at RCB and helped lead the Colts to the NFL's 2nd-ranked pass defense, allowing 172.8 yards/game. He finished this season with enormous numbers, racking up 112 tackles, 1/2 sack, three pressures, one FF, two FR, one interception and five passes defensed.  His phyiscal style play combined with his ability to come up and stuff the run helped lead him to finishing #4 on the team in tackles for the season, and tied for the lead league in FR.  He started the only postseason game played and finished with four solo tackles and a FF, though it was not enough to get a victory against San Diego.

2008
His fourth season saw him continue to progress in his coverage abilities, and proved to the league that he was a force to be reckoned with.  He started the first seven games at RCB before tearing his ACL and being placed on injured reserve, ending his season.  Before he was injured, however, he was on tracke to match or possibly beat his previous season tackle count.  He finished this season with 57 tackles, 46 solo, one pass defensed, and one FF. 

2009
This upcoming season with the Colts looks to be another promising season for Marlin Jackson.  By any standards, his recover from a torn ACL is ahead of schedule, and as long as he doesn't try to push it too hard, he should be back on the field at RCB week 1.  His strong work ethic combined with the comaradarie he has with his teammates should be enough to push the secondary back into the top of the league in terms of passing yards.

Final Words
The re-signing of Kelvin Hayden to a long-term contract all but puts a nail in the coffin for any hopes of signing Marlin Jackson to a long-term deal.  He has not racked up a lot of interceptions in his time with the Colts, which is normally regarded as a measuring stick by NFL standards.  However, his tackling ability, versatility in the secondary, and run-support make him a perfect fit for the Tampa-2 defense that the Colts continue to run.  When he went down with injury, other younger players such as Tim Jennings were able to step up and perform fairly admirably, which pretty much answers all questions as to whether or not the Colts could be successful without him.  In addition, the signing of Jerraud Powers in the 2009 NFL Draft only makes the situation muddier, due to some suggesting that he become the nickel corner, and to begin grooming Tim Jennings to take over Marlin's spot when he leaves after this season. 

As I say with all of the people I have reviewed so far, I really don't want to see him go because I really like his physical paly and safety-style hitting.  However, I'm afraid he too will become a salary-cap loss.

So after reading about Matt Stafford and how he has already had a few stumbles in training camp (which is expected), it got me to thinking about how often quarterbacks drafted in the first round really succeed.

Of course we all know that it is a rare occurrence that a quarterback comes along and completely destroy opposing defenses, but the temptation to draft quarterback with the talent to do just that is something that many GMs cannot pass up.

Drafting a quarterback in the first round is a bit like gambling. We all compare quarterbacks to the next coming of Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, but most of the time, teams end up with someone more similar to Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler.

So what's the deal? Year after year, why do people continually invest 20+ million dollars in guaranteed money to someone who will not likely be on the team five years from now?

In this article, I will take a look at the odds of drafting a successful quarterback in the first round.

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Hi everyone, I just wanted to introduce myself.  I am Stuart, I'm a 26 year old football fan.   I live in Texas, but I will eventually be moving out to San Francisco, and the more and more I watch the 49ers, the more I am becoming convinced they are on the verge of a breakout season. 

Lots of pieces seem there, but maybe a season or two away. 

What does everyone think of the current 49ers?  What are the bright spots and where are the holes?

Look forward to hearing your answers

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As the offseason gets into the full swing of things and we head closer to the start of the 2010 NFL Season, Colts fans have reasons to be optimistic and even more reasons to be nervous. Another brilliant draft class by Sir Polian and the return of several key players from injury are definitely great reasons to be excited about the upcoming season.  But with a complete overhaul in our coaching staff, many questions are raised, but as fans, we have to be optimistic that they will be able to get the job done on the field.

But with all of the news about coaching changes, the release of #88, and Dungy's retirement, the business side of the Colts has pretty much taken a back burner.  However, there are some huge lingering questions and some big names that have yet to be signed to long-term deals.  This series will focus on some key players that will be 2010 free agents.

Our first of the series, Antoine Bethea.

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Bill Belichick's hidden camera was THIIIIIIS big.

NFL.com posted a story on their website reporting that South Florida LB Tyrone McKenzie, their 2nd pick in the 3rd round (97th overall) of the 2009 NFL Draft, tore his ACL in Rookie Minicamp. 

I know this really is Patriots news, but since we have such a bitter rivalry with them, this relates to us too.  I don't wish anyone injury and I feel bad for the guy, because he's a really athletic, hard hitting LB that looked to sneak his way into the LB rotation in Boston this season, but this is good news for anyone playing the Patriots. 

McKenzie was hurt when he and a running back made contact during a pass-coverage drill. McKenzie fell and grabbed his right knee, but he walked off the field on his own. He didn't return for the second session of the day.

The loss of McKenzie will be a big one for the Patriots after they traded Mike Vrabel and the continual aging of senior citizens Tedy "Teddy Bear" Bruschi and Junior "Senior" Seau, as well as Adalius Thomas returning from injury.

Jerod Mayo remains their lone reason for optimism, who has already proven that he will be a competitor for years to come.  I'd love to have here in Indianapolis, but alas, he's not.

As of now, their starting LBs look like this.

OLB1 Adalius Thomas (returning from injury)

ILB1 Jerod Mayo

ILB2 Tedy Bruschi (old)

OLB2 Pierre Woods (35 total tackles last season)

via www.adrian-peterson.com

 

I was just sitting around reading some of the most recent mock drafts for fantasy football, and I'm so ready to start the fantasy football season today.

But alas, that's not possible.  So instead of the real deal, I was thinking about getting some peeps involved in a fantasy football mock draft.

I imagine 12 people is enough, and we would assume standard league scoring rules.

Anyone interested?  If so, let me know and once we get enough people we'll randomize the order and then just take turns posting our picks.

Here's just a list of my All-Time NFL Undrafted Team.  It just goes to show the amount of talent that every team may pass on.  Agree or not, I wouldn't mind having this team.

QB
Warren Moon
Kurt Warner
Tony Romo

HB
Priest Holmes
Willie Parker

FB
Marion Motley

WR
Rod Smith
Wayne Chrebet
Wes Welker

TE
Antonio Gates

T
Jason Peters
Kris Dielman

G
Brian Waters
Larry Little

C
Jeff Saturday

DT
Pat Williams
Shaun Smith

DE
John Randle
Adewale Ogunleye

LB
London Fletcher
Antonio Pierece
Gary Brackett
Bart Scott

CB
Dick "Night Train" Lane
Willie Brown
Emlen Tunnell
Nick Harper

S
Sammy Knight
Quentin Mikell

K
Adam Vinatieri

P
Brian Moorman

KR
Joshua Cribbs

Now that some of you have read my article about the statistics of selecting a QB in the first round, you may have come up with other questions or comments.  I actually thought to myself - Yes, the chance of you getting a great NFL QB are pretty low.  Yes the chance of you wasting millions of dollars on someone who will never even contribute to your team is pretty high.

But OH, when those picks do work out, it's a match made in heaven.  Not to mention, some of these QBs are the greatest of ALL TIME, which would never have been possible if you didn't select them in the first round, right?

WRONG!  I have now put in the time (several hours to be precise) and effort to going through and weeding out all the studs selected after the first round of the NFL drafts. This article will be breaking them down, and hopefully you'll gain a little perspective on how insane it seems to select a QB with lots of question marks in the first round, when there have been a lot of GREAT QBs selected later.

The way I determined whether or not the QB was a good deal or not was determined by his success in the playoffs, consistent performance, and his level of play, similar to how the first round quarterbacks were selected, just not with quite as high of standards.  For instance, if a QB had a few good years, but pretty much was never a consistent success, I pretty much did not put them on this list.  I tried to be as realistic as possible for statistics sake, and hopefully the people remaining on this list really are the BARGAIN QBs of the Draft.

Continue reading this post »

So after reading about Matt Stafford and how he has already had a few stumbles in training camp (which is expected), it got me to thinking about how often quarterbacks drafted in the first round really succeed.

Of course we all know that it is a rare occurrence that a quarterback comes along and completely destroy opposing defenses, but the temptation to draft quarterback with the talent to do just that is something that many GMs cannot pass up.

Drafting a quarterback in the first round is a bit like gambling. We all compare quarterbacks to the next coming of Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, but most of the time, teams end up with someone more similar to Ryan Leaf or Heath Shuler.

So what's the deal? Year after year, why do people continually invest 20+ million dollars in guaranteed money to someone who will not likely be on the team five years from now?

In this article, I will take a look at the odds of drafting a successful quarterback in the first round.

Continue reading this post »

As we all are aware of, 2008 represented a horrid year for the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts.  Between injuries to Ryan Lilja and Jeff Saturday, inconsistent play (leading to getting benched) of Tony Ugoh, and the learning curve of rookie OGs Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard, we had our worst running production in a LONG time.  

During this season, there were several bright spots, however.  With C Steve Justice flashing signs of potential to be Saturday's eventual replacement, G/T Charlie Johnson continually developing into a solid lineman, and another year for Howard Mudd to work with his OL, along with Saturday healthy and Lilja possibly returning, this year looks to be a lot better than last year.

Apparently Bill Polian agrees that the O-line is poised to be a good one, as we only drafted 1 OL, G Jaimie Thomas, of Maryland in the 7th round, apparently only because he had good value at this pick.  Continually looking to get depth and competition to help protect our 100 million dollar man at these positions, the Colts also signed two undrafted free agents, T Tom Pestock of Northwest Missouri State, and T Cornelius Lewis of Tennessee State, who is thought to be better suited at OG in the NFL.  

This post will be the first of several posts dedicated to breaking down each of these three new players and getting us acquainted with how they can contribute to our team's success.

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First and foremost, I want to apologize for my posting about Trading Joseph Addai.  I didn't realize that it would get so completely barbaric. 

We all have to remember we're here for the same purpose, to support the Colts.  That being said, it was just an idea that I had because I really love Edge, and I think he could be a contributor for us.  But I have to agree with many people's opinions that the 1-2 Brown-Addai punch should be great for the Indy fans.  So that's the last I'm going to say about it.

 

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