SB Nation User Blog: stuckinstl12

Yunie > TPJ: Why the best argument for the YBJ deal sucks.

stuckinstl12 — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 05:05:02 -0000

So far, the best argument for the Betancourt trade has been that he is an improvement over TPJ. Overstating the point is ineffective, even though it's fun to say that random geriatric sotfball players would be an improvement over TPJ. But really, Yunie v. TPJ is not the issue.

The following is inexact and based on statistics I couldn't calculate myself. I'm using BP's Postseason odds (pecota version) and Fangraphs WAR calculations.

According to BP, the Royals are most likely on pace for 68.5 wins. We'll give them 69.

Fangraphs has the following value (Wins above Replacement) for the relevant players:

TPJ: -.8

Bloomquist: .5

Betancourt: -.8

I think WAR is dependent on playing time, which TPJ has less of than Betancourt. So WAR says Betancourt is an "upgrade" over TPJ. I'll go ahead and concede that.

Pretending Bloomquist and TPJ had equal playing time (I realize it's not true) and presuming they would have equal playing time for the remainder of the season (also not true), the Royals would have received a -.3 WAR at SS.

(Yes, I realize this freezes WAR at a point in time and then projects forward. And that it might be a slight bastardization of the stats' utility.)

Anyway, the Royals just replaced -.3 WAR with -.8 WAR. So now they’re on pace for 68 wins. This is, as we like to say in the rationality business, not improving the ballclub.

Today, GMDM touted his acquisition of WFB as proof that those who crush his moves are not ALWAYS right (just 4 out of 5). Except, his most recent trade relegated the acquisition he was touting to a lesser role. That's actually pretty funny ("You guys are dumb. Remember when you said Bloomy would suck? Well, now he doesn't. So I made a move that means he won't play anymore, and becuase you were wrong (rationally: totally arguable) about his signing, you are also wrong about the utility of me neutering his role on the team. Heads, I win. Tails, numbers are Satan.").

My main point was that the BEST argument for this trade is that Betancourt replaces TPJ and that’s got to be a positive, right? Amiright? Well, yeah, it would be except that it really replaces a (however shocking) productive player with one with negative WAR. And it costs $7 million.

Of course, it’s not my money, so I don’t care. If it were my money, there would be bankruptcy lawyers involved--for sure. The problem is that DMGM is destroying Glass’s willingness to open the checkbook for wins. He’s going to (once again) believe that paying for wins doesn’t work.

And, thus, back we go to Glass collecting revenue sharing money and paying 6th round picks $1k in gun-to-your-head deals. Awesome.

What’s the number for season ticket sales?

Crisp might be headed toward season-ending surgery

stuckinstl12 — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:55:27 -0000

Crisp might be headed toward season-ending surgery

Please note the hilarious picture of Treydaddy and TLR

Small Sample Size Alert: NWA Hitters Update

stuckinstl12 — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 03:37:45 -0000

I’m appropriating NYRoyal’s shorthand for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals because it’s more fun than not referring to a hardcore rap group. The following is a very quick rundown of results for the NWA hitters as of this afternoon. I plan to eventually update this with in-depth profiles of NWA position players who are deemed legitimate prospects. This should provide some context so that future numbers I provide will give us a better understanding of organizational depth. After the first six games…mothercrap things don’t look good.

Geraldo Valentin (OF)
1. .500/.500/.773
2. No walks! No Ks!
3. 3 2bs, 1HR, 1 SB
Ovandy Suero (OF)
1. .308/.357/.308
2. 1 BB/ 1K
3. NO Extra base hits…4/5 SB
Jose Duarte (OF)
1. .278/.381/.278
2. 3 BB/3K
3. NO extra base hits…4/5 SB
Juan Richardson (3B)
1. .269/.296/.308
2. 1 BB/5K
3. 1 2B
Irving Falu (2B)
1. .250/.308/.250
2. 1 BB/2 K
3. NO extra base hits
Kila Kaaihue (1B)
1. .227/.227/.364
2. NO walks/5 Ks!
3. 1 HR
Brian McFall (OF)
1. .188/.316/.500
2. 3 BB/5 K
3. 1 HR, 1 3B
Kiel Thibault (C)
1. .182/.182/.273
2. NO walks/ 2 K
3. 1 2B
Angel Sanchez (SS)
1. .174/.174/.174
2. NO walks/ 6 K
3. NO extra base hits
Marc Maddox (2B)
1. .111/.238/.111
2. 2 BB/ 3 K
3. NO extra base hits
Mario Lisson (3B)
1. .091/.130/.182
2. NO walks/ 8 K
3. 2 2B
Adam Donachie (C)
1. .083/.083/.083
2. Nothing
3. Nothing

Bill James on Freakonomics.com

stuckinstl12 — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 01:12:07 -0000

Bill James on Freakonomics.com

Good stuff:

Has looking at the numbers prevented you from actually just enjoying a summer day at the ballpark? Have we all forgotten the randomness of human ballplayers? By reducing players to just their numbers can we lose sight of the intangibles such as teamwork, friendships, and desire.
A: Does looking at pretty women prevent one from experiencing love? Life is complicated. Your efforts to compartmentalize it are lame and useless.

KC Star: Nomo forcing his way into...

stuckinstl12 — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 05:25:56 -0000

Royals' crowded field of rotation candidates.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/525566.html

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Conspiracy Theory: Bonds Indictment Orchestrated by A-Rod/Boras

stuckinstl12 — Fri, 16 Nov 2007 07:14:00 -0000

A-Rod's (rumored) deal with the Yankees involves incentives for reaching homerun milestones. The all-time leader in homeruns was indicted today. Coincidence?

Boras likely realized that he could net the most money by tying A-Rod's future earnings to the aforementioned incentives. But, by the time his former deal ran out he would have been too close for anyone to bet against him reaching the record. What to do? Opt out of that contract and negotiate a new one loaded with incentives. The highest bidding team would recognize the value of A-Rod chasing records in their stadium and jump at the chance. To ensure his pay day, Boras enlisted the help of his old friend from law school, now a federal prosecutor*, to vigorously pursue charges against Bonds. This all but ends Bonds' career, making his homerun mark more attainable.

*This part about Boras' law school acquaintance being a federal prosecutor is completely fabricated. As is the rest of it.