This is an informal, discussion-oriented Fanpost. Let me start off by saying that I am in no way affiliated with Fangraphs.com; I'm just a fan. I think most would agree that the launching of Fangraphs basically revolutionized the way hardcore fans navigate resources: Before Fangraphs, one had to check Baseball-Reference for basic information, check ESPN.com's advanced statistics page for more in-depth "rate" and formulaic statistics, and then separately seek out projections from a third-party, such as googling Szymborski's ZiPs or subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Or, at least, that was my experience.

Baseball Prospectus existed before Fangraphs as a model for the site, but its subscription-only model for most of the desired features limited (and still does) its accessibility, especially to fans who may have been new to that sort of baseball analysis. To my amazement, there was a time when I felt Fangraphs actually provided superior written and statistical content to BP and was available at no cost.

But what was once amazing seems increasingly ordinary (that is, bloated, distracting, confusing, etc.). Is that just me being jaded? Most probably, partly. However, I do not think I am alone in believing its article archives are sorely lacking or that the introduction of "Rotographs," "NotGraphs," and other things to the front page have made the website something of an eyesore. Fangraphs does not owe me anything. I don't have the ability or means to aide in any kind of update, so this post can be taken for what its worth (Read: basically, nothing). But it's only because I believe Fangraphs is such an awesome resource that I feel compelled to start a discussion about it anyway.

As Rany Jazayerli noted in his article 'Not a Prediction', "even the casual fan has noticed a difference in Gordon's swing."  It is clear that he has made a mechanical change, flattening out his swing to put his bat in the zone longer.  It is also clear, through a slightly longer period of observation, that Gordon has become more aggressive as a hitter; ostensibly, these changes have both been for the better. 

However, there are some curious things going on with Gordon's revamped hitting style; things which, typically, may be considered poor hitting traits.  Very plainly, Gordon's patience at the plate is down tremendously.  His walk%, close to 10% for the rest of his career, sits this season at just over 5.2%.  Last year, not a single player from MLB's top 50 in wOBA posted a figure that low.  Vladimir Guerrero, the first player to really come close, logged a wOBA of .360 and a 5.4 BB%; Vladimir Guerrero is also noted as an historical hitting freak... and this rate tied for 2nd worst in his career.  Delmon Young, also fairly similar with a 4.6 walk% and a .352 wOBA, has perennially rivaled Gordon as one of baseball's most visible disappointments, and the possibility is high that this was an anomaly.  

But while similar in his overall ability to take a walk as both Guerrero and Young, both of whom have demonstrated decent successes, Gordon has not demonstrated a similar aptitude for putting the ball in play.  Is it possible for Gordon to succeed while walking less than Vladimir Guerrero and striking out twice as often?

Continue reading this post »