SB Nation User Blog: supermets

Realistic (but good enough?) Offseason

supermets — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:52:51 -0000

C: Molina+Blanco: 2.5 WAR, $7.5M

1B: Delgado: 2.3 WAR, $5M

2B: Hudson: 2.4 WAR, $6M ($9M including 1/2 of Castillo)

SS: Reyes: 5.0 WAR, $9.5M

3B: Wright: 5.5 WAR, $10M

LF: Bay: 3.4 WAR, $16M

CF: Beltran: 5.5 WAR, $20M

RF: Francoeur: .5 WAR, $4M

OF: Pagan: 1.5 WAR, $1M

UT: Tatis: 1.0 WAR, $2M

MI: Cora: .4 WAR, $2M

PH: Murphy: .8 WAR, $.5M

S1: Santana: 4.9 WAR, $21M

S2: Pineiro: 3.5 WAR, $9M

S3: Pelfrey: 3.2 WAR, $.5M

S4: Maine: 1.3 WAR, $3M

S5: Perez: 1.0 WAR, $12M

CL: Rodriguez: 1.3 WAR, $12M

SU: Parnell: .6 WAR, $.5M

SU: Feliciano: .7 WAR, $2M

MR: Green: .5 WAR, $.5M

MR: Nieve: .4 WAR, $.5M

MR: Putz: .7 WAR, $2M

MR: Stokes: 0 WAR, $.5M

$151M, 47.9 WAR, 95 Wins

I put this together pretty quickly without making comments for each spot, but I think it makes a good point. While this probably isn't as good as a plan as most of the AAOPs, it is realistic, and I think this roster could succeed. Most of all, I could see Omar making these moves:

Sign Molina 1/6(hopefully, although it will probably end up at 2/12).

Sign Delgado 1/5.

Trade Castillo while paying half and Sign Hudson 2/12.

Sign Bay ~4/64.

Sign Piniero 3/27 (maybe even less).

I think that I'm being pretty optimistic with the WARs for some players, so you can take off a couple wins, and we probably end up back at 88-91 like the '07 and '08. Maybe that will be enough for the playoffs. Plus, I really like this lineup, even if it does have Molina and Francoeur(with hopefully Pagan becoming the RF at some point, but for it to be realistic Frenchy has to be there) in it.

Reyes/Hudson/Wright/Beltran/Bay/Delgado/Molina/Francoeur/Pitcher

The 1-6 is actually really good.

Poll

Forget about your plan; if this was our team on Opening Day, how optimistic would you be about the upcoming season?

AAOP: The Supermets Offseason Plan

supermets — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 01:59:40 -0000

Cot's Baseball Contracts puts the Mets payroll at about $93M for 8 players. That leaves $58M to spend on trades, free agents, arbitration, and the $400k for all non-arbitration players.

Catcher:

There aren't very many good catcher options out there. I was on the Chris Snyder bandwagon for a while but at this point, I would prefer not to take the risk on a catcher with a big contract and back issues. Bengie Molina, though hated by everyone here, actually would not be a bad option if he would accept a contact of around 1 year, $4M. However, that is unlikely, so I'll go with a cheaper option, sign Gregg Zaun for 1 year, $3M. Expected WAR: 1.5

First Base:

I like Daniel Murphy. But we can't risk going with him again. I like Lyle Overbay and if that proposed Castillo/Overbay/Bradley trade was possible, I would definitely do it. But that seems unlikely, so I'm just going to trade for Lyle Overbay on his own. If we pay his whole salary, he should cost very little. Trade Eddie Kunz and Mike Antonini (or other minor league filler) for Lyle Overbay. Salary: $7M(2010 only). Expected WAR: 2.0

Second Base:

Luis Castillo has to go. If he were still a great fielder, I could deal with him. But he's not. Trade Luis Castillo to the Cubs for minor league filler. I don't think we would have to pay much salary, if any, but to be conservative, I'll say that the Mets pay $4M of Castillo's salary, $2M each year.

Now we need to acquire a 2B. I like Uggla's offense, but a good defensive second baseman would help the pitching staff - Pelfrey specifically - a lot. This leads me to sign Placido Polanco for 1 year, $5M. Total Salary: $7M (Polanco+Castillo). Expected WAR: 3.0

Short Stop:

Jose Reyes. We have to hope he has a comeback year. I'll be conservative with his WAR projection. Salary: $9.375M. Expected WAR: 4.0

Third Base:

David Wright. Hopefully he'll have a big year. Salary: $10.25M. Expected WAR: 5.5

Left Field:

I'm moving Carlos Beltran to LF. It's not that I don't think he can play CF, and in a different plan I would leave him there. It's just that he's not as good a fielder (at this point in his career) as the man I will bring in to play CF. Moving to LF will hopefully keep him healthy and productive offensively. Salary: $20M. Expected WAR: 5.0

Center Field:

I want to continue to have great defense in CF without sacrificing offense. The best solution is to sign Mike Cameron for 1 year, $10M. He has power that we need and he has a slightly above average OBP. Expected WAR: 3.5

Right Field:

I know everyone hates Francoeur, but I don't want to risk going with Pagan and having him fail. Jeff Francoeur will start the year as the starter with Pagan getting plenty of playing time, and if Francoeur is terrible, release him and make Pagan the starter. Do not give Frenchy an extension, just 1 year, $4M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Bench:

Omir Santos will be the backup catcher. Salary: $.4M. Expected WAR: .5

Daniel Murphy will be a backup CI and PH. Salary $.5M. Expected WAR: .5

Wilson Valdez will be the backup MI. Salary $.4M. Expected WAR: .5

Fernando Tatis will be re-signed as the PH and utility man. Salary: $1.5M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Angel Pagan will be the backup OF (and caddy for Francoeur). Salary $1M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Starting Pitching:

1. Johan Santana. Not much else to say here. Salary: $21M. Expected WAR: 4.5

2. The Mets need to acquire a #2. The guys we have just aren't proven enough. I would sign Rich Harden to a 1 year, $10M contract with a team option for $13M for 2011. He doesn't stay healthy, but he should give us 130 to 150 very good innings. Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard could also be considered if someone else gives Harden more than 1 guaranteed year. Expected WAR: 3.0

3. We should acquire a #3 as well. I would look into Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo of the Reds. Both have big contracts, so they shouldn't cost much in a trade. However, both will expire after 2010, so they are not long-term commitments. I would prefer to trade for Harang because I think he will cost less because of his mediocre year last year. However, I would be fine replacing Harang with Arroyo in this scenario. Trade Scott Moviel and Nick Carr (or less if possible) for Aaron Harang. Salary: $12.5M. Expected WAR: 2.0

4. Here is where we fit in our own Mike Pelfrey. He should "improve" greatly this year with Overbay, Polanco, and Reyes in the infield. Salary: $.5M. Expected WAR: 2.0

5. Oliver Perez has to go here. He can't go to the bullpen and we need to hope he can have a decent year. He won't be worth $12M, but maybe he can be a capable fifth starter. If not, we'll have Jon Niese in AAA as depth. If Perez doesn't look good this spring, John Maine could win this job out of spring training. Salary: $12M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Bullpen:

Francisco Rodriguez will close. Hopefully he can do better on a better team in 2010. Salary: $12M. Expected WAR: 1.0

Bobby Parnell did very well in the bullpen last year with a very high BABIP. He should improve next year. Salary: $.4M. Expected WAR: .5

Pedro Feliciano will be back. Salary: $2M. Expected WAR: .5

John Maine gets a spot if he doesn't make the rotation. He will get some spot starts either way. Salary: $3M. Expected WAR: 1.0

I would re-sign JJ Putz for 1 year, $2M. As long as he is healthy he will be a good set-up man for this year. Expected WAR: .5 (with potential for more) (We must also pay Putz's buyout from last year which is $1M)

I would bring back Sean Green He was mediocre, but he finished the year well. Fernando Nieve, Brian Stokes, and Adam Bostick should be brought to ST to compete with him for the job. If Putz is unable to go or is not good, two of these four can make the team. Salary: $.5M. Expected WAR: .5

For this last spot I would sign a FA, Joe Beimel for $2M. He will be the second lefty out of the pen. Expected WAR: .5

This gives us the following team:

Reyes/Polanco/Wright/Beltran/Cameron/Overbay/Francoeur/Zaun/Pitcher

Santana/Harden/Harang/Pelfrey/Perez

K-rod/Putz/Parnell/Green/Maine/Feliciano/Beimel

Total Payroll: $150.325M. If this is too high for the Wilpons, we would probably have to go with in house for the bullpen instead of Beimel/Putz. Maybe an extra prospect would get the Reds to pay a couple million of Harang's deal. Overall, I think this payroll is appropriate.

Total WAR: 46 WAR. Add 47 for replacement level and you get 93 wins. Considering I was somewhat conservative in my projections, this allows for a bunch of things to go wrong and still make the playoffs.

EDIT: One thing I forgot to mention, another reason why I really like this plan. It leaves us with only Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Santana, Perez, K-rod having guaranteed money in 2011. We would have A LOT of money to spend next offseason when there is a much better FA class. We could have $50-$60 million to spend a year from now, possibly more if we don't bring back Reyes.

Poll

How good of a plan is this?

Terrible - this would destroy the Mets

1 votes

Decent - I could do better

6 votes

Good - I would be pleased with this

13 votes

Great - Playoffs here we come!

1 votes

21 votes | Poll has closed

No more OF for Murphy

supermets — Thu, 21 May 2009 00:58:18 -0000

No more OF for Murphy

Manuel suggested placing Murphy in left field might have been a mistake and said his days in the outfield are over for now. He suggested Murphy was relieved by the news.

"His reaction, it surprised me," Manuel said. "He just lit up, had a big smile. I spoke with (outfield coach) Razor (Shines) about it and he said, ‘Oh yeah, he’s like a kid with a new toy.’ Whereas I’m like, ‘I’m scared to death. If he can’t catch it out there, how’s he going to catch it in here?’"

-Rubin

Mets Make Offer To Oliver Perez

supermets — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 01:20:51 -0000

Mets Make Offer To Oliver Perez

"During tonight’s Hot Stove show on the MLB Network, SI.com’s Jon Heyman said the Mets offered free-agent LHP Oliver Perez a three-year deal, ‘worth close to $30 million.’"

Eric's take:

Interesting. I had read last week that Minaya favored Perez even though almost everyone else fancied Derek Lowe, but I didn't realize he liked him so much that he'd throw an offer out there. I think Perez will be about as quick to accept this deal as Lowe was to accept the 3/$36 million deal the Mets offered him (which was rebuffed and whose very existence has been denied by Scott Boras).

Clearly, Minaya is not content to lose both Lowe and Perez, so he now (reportedly) has offers on the table for each. Who knows where Boras will take this.

Mets trade the Show

supermets — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 01:04:02 -0000

Mets trade the Show

for Connor Robertson

Sickels' Top 100 Prospect List?

supermets — Mon, 13 Oct 2008 23:03:48 -0000

NY Baseball Digest has an article about Sickels' Top 100 list, which I didn't know he even made. (Doesn't he usually make a 50/50 list?)

I assume this is in his prospect book (which I didn't buy) but I was just wondering if this will be posted on this website.

The article only talks about the 4 Mets and the 4 Yankees in the Top 100, so I'd like to see the rest of the list without buying the book that I can't afford.

And for those who don't want to open the link, here is what is listed:

29: Wilmer Flores
31: Fernando Martinez
37: Jesus Montero
39: Jonathan Niese
56: Austin Jackson
58: Dellin Betances
77: Mike Carp
91: Zach McAllister

Mets Shadow Draft

supermets — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 23:42:14 -0000

I decided to start a mets shadow draft this year. Here's what I have so far:

18: Ike Davis (best bat left on the board, I really like him)

22: Christian Freidrich (a steal with pick #22, should move quickly)

33: Zach Collier (after taking pretty safe college guys at 18 and 22, I decided to go with the high reward OF. I was debating between him, DeVall, and Scheppers, but decided Scheppers might fall to the second round. If I had known he wouldn't, I might have gone with him.)

68: Tim Melville (If I'm the Mets and I think he has a chance of signing, I take him here. If I think he wants way too much money, and I mean WAY TOO MUCH, then I'd go with Tyler Sample.)

100: Ross Seaton (Really glad to get him this late, he has great potential, and he already has a good fastball and slider)

134: Adrian Nieto

164: Zach Putnam (I love getting him this late)

194: Isaac Galloway (Love getting him, it was between him and Thames. If I could see more of Thames medical record, I would probably have gone with him)

That's what I have so far. I I think I did far better than the Mets.

EDIT: Added Adrian Nieto as 134th pick, added Putnam, Galloway

Poll

Who had a better first 5 picks?

Mets

15 votes

Shadow Mets

20 votes

35 votes | Poll has closed

Mike Carp and Nick Evans

supermets — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 21:01:51 -0000

Both play for the Binghamton Mets and are first baseman. They've both been hitting outstandingly so far(One plays DH, other at first everyday).

Both players were drafted out of high school in 2004. Evans is 22, and Carp is 21(22 in June).

In 2006, Carp has a breakout year at Hi-A, but he struggled with injuries in 2007, so he's repeating AA. In 2007, Evans had a breakout year in Hi-A, and now he's at AA.

Carp is hitting .474 with 4 HR, 4 2B, 13 RBI, a .895 SLG and a .500 OBP. His entire career, people have been worried about his ability to hit lefties, who he has never hit, but he has 2 HR and is hitting .412 against LHP this year

Evans is hitting .444 with 2 HR, 3 2B, 2 3B, 13 RBI, a .806 SLG and a .476 OBP.

Do either of these guys have a chance of becoming real prospects? Top 100 guys?