SB Nation User Blog: swamigusto

Baron Davis After 20 Games

swamigusto — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:31:05 -0000

I kept waiting for one of the stat guys to write a post about this, but it hasn't happened, so I'll pick up the mantle.

I think it was after losing their opening games that Baron Davis said, "Ask me how I'm doing after 20 games not four," or something to that effect. Well, the Clips have played twenty games now, so how is Baron doing? Now, he may have been talking about the team as a whole and that's an easy review, they're 9 and 11, two games under .500. They've played well at times, they seem to play better when Eric Gordon plays, and they've played poorly... a lot. But they're on a pace for 36 wins this year, certainly better than last but not near the .500 level and not as good as any of us would like. But how has Baron faired personally?

Ignoring statistics for the moment, judging by the evidence of having simply watched the games, I've liked Baron's game this year. He's laying off the pull-up-jumper and laying off the three-ball in general. This is good. He seems to be often attacking the basket and getting into the lane, using his considerable size and strength to overpower smaller guards. He seems to be playing solid defense as well... playing excellent "man" defense on all but the quickest guards. His ballhandling, clock-management, and general surety at the point guard spot have been exemplary. He also seems to be the team leader we thought we were getting when he came here. And, perhaps most importantly, he seems to better understand and be more willing to play within Mike Dunleavy's system. This is, to my mind, a surprising and welcome improvement. Gone are the surly looks, the displeased expressions (at least from my limited, tv-watching point of view). Most importantly, Baron Davis seems to have regained his lost confidence. He seems to better understand and better accept his role.

Baron Davis is a complicated dude. Last year, it was hard to figure out what exactly was wrong with him. He reported out of shape, he played poorly, he jacked up awful shots and... he sulked. His enthusiasm and his confidence had vanished and he didn't seem to understand what his coach wanted. Disastrously both he and Mike Dunleavy showed their worst traits... they seem equally stubborn, equally sure that their way is the only way. This year, someone's changed. Is it Baron? Or has Dun changed as well? Has John Lucas helped secure a rapprochement between these two strong-willed men?

Physically, Baron's in far better shape than he was at anytime last year. He looks quicker, stronger, faster. He's gotten above the rim a number of times....

Finally, do the stats back up our eyeballs? (I'll leave the advanced stats (plus-minus, PER) to someone else, mostly because I don't understand them, but also because I can't find them). His points are up... he's at 16.0 this, 14.9 last year (against 16.9 career). His assists, I was surprised to find are down, 7.7 last year, 6.9 this. His FG percentage is up a hair over 40 percent vs. .37 last year. His 3pt shooting is actually down .302 to .330, though he's he's taken slightly less per game 4.9 per 36 minutes vs. 5.3 last year. Steals are slightly up, 1.9 to 1.7 and rebounds slightly down, 3.6 to 3.7. He's also played slightly fewer minutes this year, 33.3 to 34.6.

Wow... I'm very surprised that the stats don't really reflect the change I see on the court... which makes me wonder... am I only seeing what I want to see, and is Baron Davis anywhere near his former all star level? In order for the team to improve, does Baron have to further improve? Why don't the stats better reflect Baron's better play? More importantly, why doesn't the team's record better reflect that improvement?

I have a theory about this. It's simple. Baron's better, a lot better, but the rest of the team is lacking. Actually, they kinda suck. Kaman's been better, but he's streaky and his rebounding's dropped off. Lately, Camby's been awesome but Gordon's missed almost half the games. Butler's been a complete flop and Al Thornton has only recently seemed to discover his way. Blake Griffin, obviously hasn't played a minute. The bench has been... okay. Without a scoring, rebounding monster like Zach Randolph, the Clips have little sure offensive firepower. So, here it is: I believe, without Baron's improved play, the Clips wouldn't have anywhere near nine wins this year. And now, it's up to the other 14 guys to get better if this teams going anywhere this year... even if anywhere is only 40 wins.

Michael Lewis on Shane Battier

swamigusto — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:28:11 -0000

Michael Lewis on Shane Battier

You might've seen it before but since he's coming to town this is very worthwhile: an excellent (and lengthy) article by Michael Lewis (from last Feb) in the NY Times. Lots on Daryl Morey, stats, and the Rockets organization.

Recent Lisa Dillman Twitters... excellent stuff...

swamigusto — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:00:27 -0000

Recent Lisa Dillman Twitters... excellent stuff...

Her twitters are always worthwhile, last night:
- Talked to Ricky Davis about DeAndre Jordan's ankle injury. "Weird play," he said. Natural question: Was Craig (Rhino) Smith responsible?
- Craig Smith happened to be walking by and heard his name. "Hell no." he said, smiling. "I wasn't even in the play." OK, we'll buy that one.
- Looks like DeAndre Jordan won't be going on the short trip to Indy and Detroit, according to Clippers Coach Mike Dunleavy.

Too early to throw in the towel...

swamigusto — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:51:28 -0000

Anyone scanning the comments the last few days has noticed we're already knee deep in talks about trading both or either of our small forwards, sending off Marcus Camby, and of course, firing the coach (it seems we never get far from that argument). But this team is 3 and 5, not 0 and 8, it's very early, and these guys still haven't played together much (unless 8 games is much). We've seen some real improvement on the floor over last year, I think Baron's played very well (although we'd all like to see him shoot better), Chris Kaman looks primed to have an excellent year, and Eric Gordon looks nothing less than awesome. There are also new bodies at the backup spots, a new starting small forward, and a number one pick we haven't yet seen in a game. I believe all these guys, separately and collectively need some time to find their way.

As far as the Clips Nation stalwarts, many seem to be already abandoning ship; Even Citizen Zhiv, long the beloved (if somewhat windy) ambassador of Club Optimism has vanished, either gone overboard or off brooding somewhere. Everyone seems to want to make radical changes... but by my watch, it's simply too early. The team needs time to jell. I'm for staying the course.

A "Dominating" D. Jordan?

swamigusto — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:42:27 -0000

A "Dominating" D. Jordan?

Yesterday, in a live chat, Kevin Arnovitz was asked, "Which player dominates at the Clipper practices?"
Arnovitz responded with seemingly no hesitation, "DeAndre Jordan"

Plus-Minus

swamigusto — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:49:18 -0000

Maybe it's just me but is it a new thing to list player's plus minus in the boxscore? Both NBA.com and ESPN list the stat (which may or may not be from the same source), the LA Times and SBNation do not. Perhaps I haven't been paying attention, but I only noticed this phenomenon last night when the game was not televised and I couldn't get the radio broadcast, but I could scan the quarterly stats...

But I wonder at it's significance? If you look at the boxscore from last nights' game (here) you'll see some interesting details: While, judging by most reports, Al Thornton had a nice game, including eleven points in a row in the fourth quarter (8 for 11, 4 rebs, 18 points in 24 mins) his plus-minus was a sad -6. Ricky Davis on the other hand who also played 24 minutes, was 2-7 with 7 points and was a whopping +9. Craig Smith had only two points, fouled out and was +10. On the other side of the floor Theo Ratliff played 8 minutes didn't score, had 1 rebound and was also +10!

Is the plus-minus meaningful at all?

NBA League Pass?

swamigusto — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 23:30:25 -0000

Not sure this is FanPost material, but I've got a problem, and judging by other queries to the site, others are in the same boat: I recently moved out of the LA area and I'm stuck because I can no longer get the Clipper games on local TV, nor can I pickup the radio broadcasts. I want to sign up for NBA (broadband) League Pass but NBA.com says "check back later" or something like that. Am I missing something? Anyone with any experience in this regard? Does League Pass simply not include pre-season games?

Essential KA

swamigusto — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:58:50 -0000

Essential KA

Kevin Arnovitz makes a Clips win-loss prediction based on team's defensive potential. Club optimism won't be too happy but it's KA at his best. Highly recommended.

Von Wafer goes to Greece...

swamigusto — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 21:05:55 -0000

Von Wafer goes to Greece...

I guess the meeting with Coach Dunleavy didn't go well.

Marc Stein on Clips, Sessions, Iverson, Tim Grgurich

swamigusto — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:41:12 -0000

Marc Stein on Clips, Sessions, Iverson, Tim Grgurich

I copped it from KA, but it's too good to miss. Clips making offer to Sessions, Grgurich?