One item most Cubs fans probably would agree on is that, if the Cubs are to be serious playoff contenders in 2011, Tyler Colvin will need to have a breakout year.  Will he?

Colvin’s 2010 numbers reminded me of another Cub who once had a decent—though not spectacular—rookie season, only to follow it up with superstar numbers.  I speak here of Ernie Banks. As a BCBer old enough to remember Banks’s rookie campaign in 1954, I also recall how surprised most people were in 1955 when Banks emerged as a 40+ HR, 120 RBI sensation.  Here’s how their two first full seasons compare:

Although Banks played more in 1954 than did Colvin in 2010, Colvin’s power numbers compare very favorably with Ernie’s.  Where Colvin looks weakest is in striking out twice as many times as Banks despite having had almost 250 fewer at bats.  Tyler will clearly need to develop better plate discipline for a breakout year to be in the cards. 

Despite his more than respectable numbers, Colvin got no votes for NL Rookie of the Year honors.  Ernie’s ’54 season earned him a distant second place to that year’s winner, Wally Moon of the Cardinals.  But Ernie did finish ahead of two other 1954 rookies, including a kid named Hank Aaron who played for the Braves.