SB Nation User Blog: sylvar

NIT title or NCAA First Round Loss

sylvar — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 13:28:57 -0000

I work in Columbus, OH...the heart of Buckeye country (I accept your condolences in advance) and while people aren't buzzing like last year they are still pretty pumped to be in the NIT championship game.

As a UK fan I can't understand it. All I hoped and prayed for in December was to somehow make the NCAA tourny. I didn't care what round we made it to, just get in.

These guys are talking about the NIT like its a big deal, but I keep telling them all it proves is that you are the 67th best team in the country...the only thing you won is the right to tell the selection committee "Hey, You should have picked us instead of MD-Baltimore Co.!"

So what do yo think? Would you rather win the NIT or lose in the NCAA first round?

I'll hang up and listen.

It just hit me...

sylvar — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 14:31:30 -0000

I just printed out my bracket to start filling it in for the office pool. Up till now I hadn't really paid attention to thing but the South region. Now, like any good UK fan I fill out two brackets, one with my heart (Here is a hint:UK WINS) and one with my head.

So, I start looking at the other #1 seeds and I feel like I'm gonna vomit. UNC, UCLA, and Kansas?!? Your flippin' kidding me. Fine, Fine...I'll just pick them to be upset by the #2...Wait,Tennesse and Duke?!?

Its the bracket from Wildcat Hell.

So this year I am resolved to only fill out the bracket where UK takes home the trophy. I just can't put pen to paper and fill in any of those names as the National Champion.

Vandy's win

sylvar — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:29:35 -0000

I am conflicted about Vandy's win over the Vols last night.

On one hand: Takes some of the sting out of the whipping we took there

On the other hand: It severely weakens our position in the SEC.

A Vandy loss would have probably secured the Cats the 2nd best record in the SEC...Some thing I wouldn't have dreamed of a couple of months ago. With their win we have a chance to play to win the SEC:Unbelieveable.

But if we don't win at Tenn and still go 3-1 we are looking at a probable (Vandy can win out hanging an L on Miss St. along the way) 3-way tie for second that we lose all the tie-breakers in...Thats a Fourth place finish.

So how do you feel about it? Was the bird in the hand worth more than 2 in the bush? Would you trade a secure 2nd place finish for a shot at 1st knowing that not finishing 1st meant finishing 4th?

Break down of the next 3 games for SEC leaders

sylvar — Fri, 15 Feb 2008 16:40:21 -0000

Since the SEC season is 30% over AND the Cats seem to be in the thick of SEC race I thought I would poke around a little and and break down the next three games of SEC play.

I am only going to look at teams with UK's record or better.

TENNESSEE - Have looked strong but not unbeatable ;). They have a tough week ahead. Florida, LSU, and Arkansas.

Tenn vs Florida - Looking to come back from the Ark. loss. The Vols get them at home so I'll give Tenn. the edge, but only barely.

Tenn vs LSU - Ok, so this ones not tough on paper...but it is a SEC road game.
Advantage: Tenn...by a lot

Tenn vs Arkansas - This should be a great game. Love what Pel is doing with the hogs...wish we didn't have to play them. Again, the Vols get to face a tough opponent at home. If the Hogs execute the way they did against the Gators they win this game. Still as a home game I'll give a slight edge to Tennessee.

OVERALL: Tennessee could/should win all of these, but my gut says they drop one. Conf. record after these games : 8-2

FLORIDA - Stong but inconsistent...First half lapses killed them last week. Ahead they have Tennessee away, and Georgia and LSU at home.

Fla vs Tenn - See comments above. Vols have the edge

Fla vs Georgia and LSU - Home games against the dregs of the SEC East and West...Gators should take care of business.

OVERALL: Gators might be able to beat Tenn at home, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Conf. record after these games : 7-3

ARKANSAS - Wow, these guys are heating up at the right time. The next 3 game have no pansys for the Hogs. They get Ole Miss at home then travel to play Tenn, and Miss. State.

Ark vs Ole Miss - The Rebs started the season strong, but haven't been playing the way they can since conference play started. The Hogs should win this one, but it might be closer than they like.

Ark vs Tenn - See comments above, I like the hogs chances here even playing away.

Ark vs Miss. State - The battle for king of the west. State get home court advantage and will want revenge for the drubbing they took last week when they traveled to Fayettville. I think that will be the deciding factor in this game...unless Ark lost to Tenn. If the Hogs drop the Tenn game I see them coming back and taking this match-up. Arkansas is really the stronger team.

OVERALL - Hogs are playing great and CAN win all these games, but I see them 2-1 in these games. Conf. record after these games : 7-3

MISSISSIPPI STATE - Strong team..now, kind of. They didn't look the part when the coference games started, but much like UK they seem to have come together at the right time. Dropped the last two games (Ark, Tenn) and looking to recover. They face Bama at home, Travel to face Auburn, then host the Hogs.

State vs Bama - Home game. I think the Bulldogs defend the home turf

State vs Auburn - Auburn is on a skid that looks to have no bottom. They will need to win this one just to end a losing streak that will reach 4 games after they play UK on Wed. But they won't. They haven't been able to meet the challenge this year.

State vs Ark - Great game, Should be a good one to watch. They can beat the Hogs, but I am unsure if they will.

OVERALL - I can see the bulldogs takeing all 3 games, but they should be afraid of that Ark rematch. Revenge for that loss may be the only motivator that can get them past the hogs. All in All, I think State is soon to fall out of the hunt. They close the season with some tough road games and I think that will end their chances. Conf. record after these games : 7-3

Which brings me to the Cats...

KENTUCKY - Rolling strong, but depleted...the injury list may be the deciding factor in these games. The Cats travel to Auburn, then host Bama, before heading into the rematch with Vandy. UK has arguably the easiest schedule over the next 3 games of any one on this list..Florida can probably stake some claim to that, but they have to go to Tennessee...and that renders their argument null and void.

UK vs Auburn - Like I said before, Auburn is on the skids...but we will be no where near full strength. Does anyone remember what that looked like? Any way, I still think the Cats pull this one out with Ramel and Crawford not playing. Crawford may get some minutes, but not many.

UK vs Bama - Home game against Bama....mark it down. Cats take this one.

UK vs Vandy - I was scared of this rematch after we beat Vandy in Rupp, now not so much. Vandy's home court is a hard place to play, but right now Vandy is unravelling. They may get it back together this season...maybe not. I say UK beats them if Ramel is back. I know that makes me sound like a homer, but I think we beat them if we are healthier than we are today.

OVERALL: UK will benefit from the fact that the other 4 teams in the SEC race *have to play each other*. If it plays out as I have scripted it UK stands at 7 - 2 . A half game behind Tenn and a half game ahead of everyone else. Not too bad.

So that how I see it. Any thoughts, Comments, Snide Remarks?

Sagarin basketball ratings...oddness worth noting

sylvar — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 15:47:53 -0000

The full ratings are here:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkc0708.htm

Here is Kentucky's Line:
Rank ELO_CHESS Predictor
122 173 73

First some definitions (I am paraphrasing):
Predictor: Most accurate number to look at when trying to see who will win in a matchup.

ELO_CHESS: Pure W-L Ranking

Rank: Avg. of ELO_CHESS and Predictor
I would say the avg difference between the ELO_CHESS and Predictor is around 20 (no math was done here...just looking through the numbers). Most teams are closer than that...the mean is probably closer to 10 or 12.

We have a 100 point disparity currently. Mostly due to having a losing record. SC has an 9-8 record and their ELO_CHESS is 93....one win makes a big difference. That Predictor number is much closer to what I think the team is at right now....And that is a bubble team number.
Now what we need to do is go out and win some road games. Georgia and Auburn are definately beatable teams, Then we get Bama at home. I am anxious to see how we play at Vandy...that one will be fun.
I am remembering the little video at Big Blue Madness where they ask the players who they wanted to beat the most....Seems like it was Vandy, Tennessee, Florida. So far they are 2 out of 3 on that list...better than expected I would say.

Then we get LSU on the road which should be a win. Then a 3 game home Stretch of GA,Ark,Ole Miss. Ark. and Ole Miss are tough games...But at least we get those teams at home. Given our recent home success against ranked teams I like our odds to take 2 of 3 in that stretch.

The final 3 games of the season are Tenn and SC on the road and Fla at home. Tenn. game will be a bellweather for the NCAA I think...Win that game and I think they are in. Fla. Game will be hard fought, but I think we take that one. Again, I like our odds to take 2 of 3 in that stretch.

Overall, I don't think its beyond reason to see us finish the season 9-3. That would be a final record of 17-12. Not Stellar...but not horrid.

I think that it goes without saying that we need a deep run in the SEC tournament to help wash away some of those early season losses, the way they are playing now I think they have a chance.

All I really want this year is a trip to the NCAA tournament....I think that is possible now, but there is still a lot of ball left to play.
OK...After the Georgia Game here is the line: br> Rank ELO_CHESS Predictor
90 126 61