First, Mr. Patrick Pannella has been very upfront with me and kind enough to address my concerns with Maryland MMA regulations.  Maryland has not yet had an MMA show of any kind.  The first being a pro bout slated for later this month.  After attending UWC 7 in Virginia this past weekend I was motivated to get involved in my own state.  I first contacted Mr. Pannella on Sunday morning and he has been more then receptive to my requests.  I think the AC is taking the right approach to qualify judges through the amateur ranks and I completely agree with what he had to say about the young, but well thought out process in MD.  He had his own thoughts on UWC 7 and the judging, but I will get to that. I spoke to him this afternoon and I genuinely respect him.

He stated that he knows people have concerns about MD starting pro MMA before amateur, but many states don't even have amateur regulations.  The pro regulation is tried and true and can be adopted, but the amateur process does need a little more time to develop and I don't believe that this is a case of running before you walk.  He said that they will bring in qualified MMA officials and judges from other states and only use local refs and judges that are experienced and proven, while the amateur ranks will be used to develop the local ranks.  He said that judges will only moving up based on experience and performance.  I am young and I hope to start at the bottom and work my way up.  I think he was under the impression that I wanted to jump into pro MMA and that couldn't be further from the truth.  I run toward structure and regulation.  Then he brought up something that made me feel great about MMA in MD.  He said he believes judges should be able to justify scores.  And that goes right along with rating a judge's (or ref's for that matter) performance. 

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Promoted to the front page from the FanPosts by Luke Thomas. This post is best viewed in WIDE mode.

UWC Bantamweight World Championship Title Fight (5 Five Minute Rounds)
Mike "The Hulk" Easton		Chase "The Rage" Beebe
Weight: 135 lbs Height: 5'5" Association: Lloyd Irvin Martial Arts Fighting Out Of: Washington DC/Temple Hills, MD Corner: Lloyd Irvin / Brandon Vera MMA Record: 8 - 1 - 0 Fact:Fact: 2X UWC World Champ		Weight: 135 lbs Height: 5'7" Association: Midwest Training Center Fighting Out Of: Chicago, IL Corner: Alex Trujillo / Joey Gilbert MMA Record: 12 - 4 - 0 Fact: Former 2X WEC World Champ
This is one of the biggest fights in North America at 135 to ever happen outside of the WEC.  Easton is a huge prospect and Beebe is a proven vet.  Originally slated to take place back in February only to be called off days before the bout because Beebe no showed the weigh-ins, my anticipation for this bout has only grown.  Everyone knows Beebe has cardio for days and I doubt that has changed from his days in the WEC.  He is now training at MTC where another cardio phenom, Clay Guida holds camp.  Beebe is coming off three strait losses to a who's who list of BWs and should come in hungry.  Easton is a local product that is still looking to "bust loose" onto the national scene.  He is the defending champ.  His stand-up is far better then Beebe's although reach could play a role.  His ground game is good, but he in no way has the wrestling of Beebe.  Easton does have a secret weapon on his side, a steel elbow.  If the fight goes the distance I like Beebe in what could be a grinding win of control.  If the fight ends early, and it could, I like Easton by TKO.  As far as the odds on a sub, Easton has the skills to catch an over aggressive Beebe early or a Beebe worn down by being battered on the feet.  Beebe could also grind down on Easton for five rounds and sink something in on a gassed TLI fighter.  Truly a great match-up and a risky one for the promotions future.

UWC Flyweight World Championship Title Fight (5 Five Minute Rounds)
Pat Runez		John "The Magician" Dodson
Weight: 125 lbs Height: 5'4" Association: Arizona Combat Sports Fighting Out Of: Tempe, AZ Corner:Jamie Varner / Todd Lally MMA Record: 6 - 0 - 0 Fact: PFC World Champion		Weight: 125 lbs Height: 5'4" Association:Greg Jackson MMA Fighting Out Of: Albuquerque, NM Corner:Greg Jackson / Mike Winkeljohn MMA Record: 12 - 4 - 0 Fact:2X UWC Vet / Tap Out Show Vet
This is a flyweight title fight, that in it self makes this a rarity. Pat Runez took part in the PFC four man tournament to crown a flyweight champ.  On the opposite side of the bracket was an extremely dangerous FW in Rambaa Somdet. When Somdet, the favorite in the field pulled out, Runez dispatched a late replacement to take the belt.  With the current state of the flyweight division in North America, the PFC flyweight belt is the top of the heap.  The UWC is looking to change that bringing in Runez to take on John Dodson. Dodson is an amazing striker.  Not a guy known for his power, but his style is effective and his creativity is unmatched.  The WEC has their sights on flyweight and these two are likely on there short list.  Not to mention Dodson's last loss was up a weight class to the UWC's own BW champ, Mike Easton and that was a close decision. One thing I expect from this fight, a lot of head scratching after the score cards are read.  Flyweights are fast and Dodson is a point scoring fighter, but his strikes lack power and that hurts him with the judges.

Images and stats via www.uwcmma.com

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If you would have asked me a year ago if Kenny Florian had a chance against BJ Penn I would have looked at you funny.  Penn had demolished Sean Sherk, an imposing lightweight at the time who holds a dominate win over Florian.  Right now the line on a Florian win sits at +200 on Bodog.  Those are long odds, but not insurmountable.  Kenny is wicked good, but his talent doesn’t jump out at you like BJJ ground wizard or a raw power standing or an impressive wrestling pedigree. His skills fly under the radar because he is unassuming and well rounded.  When this match was announced I was not very excited. Sure, Kenny has earned a title shot both by beating a lot of contenders and not losing, which in such a deep division is commendable in its own right. Now I am going to explain to you why I was wrong not to be excited and why you too should be excited for the Lightweight title fight Saturday.

Now I am not saying Kenny will win.  I think he is rightfully the underdog.  But his style is smothering.  His control is complete and he doesn’t put himself in bad position.  He fights smart and make his opponent beat him because he never beats himself.  His record is strikingly clean and full of wins by finish.  He finds a way to win and has only one loss at lightweight and that was to Sean Sherk who has a great take down and great top control.  Kenny also had some trouble early in his fight with Joe Lauzon, but again Lauzon is a guy with a very solid take down.

UFC 101: Declaration coverage

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            Fedor Emelianenko is the number one heavyweight mixed martial artist in the world and few people disagree with that.  Is he overrated? Maybe.  Is he ducking top fighters? I don’t know.  The fact of the matter is, he hasen’t lost in quite a long time.  In a sport where staying on top is so hard and losses don’t spell the end, Fedor has kept his record clean for a long time and depending on who you ask, he has never been defeated.  He has fought top fighters, maybe not in there prime, but he has a lot of wins versus a lot of quality fighters.  He can lay claim to one of the most prestigous championship belts in MMA, the Pride Heavyweight Championchip Belt. 

 

            Now the UFC wants him.  They don’t want him because he can draw in fans. They aren’t bending over backward and dusting off the checkbook because they think he is a great guy.  They think he is the number one heavyweight fighter in the world, no matter what they say about him or what they think about his management.  They don’t need him, they just want him and for that I am greatful.  I want to see top fighters face off as much as the next guy, but there will always be a fight that needs to happen or a fighter that is not with one organization or another.  For the short time I have been into the sport I have seen this pattern more then once.  Take the long antisipated bout between Chuck Liddell and Wanderli Silva.  In that case, the fighters were rabid to fight eachother and the fight just couldn’t get made.  When it did happen is was well after interest had peaked.  Both fighters were coming off losses and the fight was great, but for me it felt anticlimactic.  After the fight I checked it off the “fights that need to happen” list and moved on. 

 

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A relatively new trend in Japan could lead to an even greater decline in interest in combat sports.  I found an article on slate.com about "Grass-eating men" in Japan who shun consumption and seek quieter less competitive lives.  It’s a growing subculture in Japan and the lack of macho under thirty types may drive out combat sports all together.  As many of us know, Japan is a hard place to gauge.  But according to a survey cited in the slate article, 75% of men ages 20-30 describe themselves as grass eating men.  That is a huge chunk of the key age demographic for MMA.  A large portion of the audience may be lost for the time being.  The attitude shift is a shift away from MMA.

Perhaps this means a rise in interest from women.  Maybe, like so many other things is Japan, it is just a fad and fighting will come back stronger then ever.  Maybe an earthquake will open the earth and swallow Japan rendering this article pointless.  Something to consider, something to talk about.  I don’t know a lot about Japan, but I am interested in hearing other reasons then Yakuza on why Japan MMA is down.  I love Dream shows as much as the next guy, but they are not Pride and not as stable.  What say you?

image via slate.com

Ariel Helwani reporting a jump to PPV for the WEC and a hop across the boarder into Mexico City.  I think they could sell out, but how good will a PPV sell.

 

"I think we could be (ready for pay-per-view in 2009)," Harris said. "I think you'll agree that the key to pay-per-view is having fights that people are willing to pay to watch. That's what pay-per-view is all about. I think that we've produced shows that have had fights like that, but I also believe that it takes time to build your brand, which we're doing. So, I think towards the end of '09 we could be ready and certainly 2010."

 

The make an interesting case for going to Mexico.  It makes sense to me.  A lot of there stars are Hispanic and they have done shows in New Mexico and Cali. 

"...I know the UFC has interest in doing shows in Mexico, and I believe that if they went to Mexico, they would be very, very successful, as they have been pretty much everywhere they've gone. We do have some of the top Mexican/Hispanic fighters in the world in WEC. You know, we've taken Miguel down to Mexico for press tours, and the reaction has been huge. A lot of people know who Miguel is down there, so based on that, I think we can do well doing a show down there."

I guess it's a race to see who gets to Mexico first; WEC of UFC.  My guess is Zuffa wins either way.  I never understood why they didn't go to Mexico and Canada before places like England and the upcoming German show.

 

Image via www.everyjoe.com

 

 

JCS from fightmatrix.com and Leland Roling formerly with MMA-Analyst.com now doing great work on BE in the fan posts have been posting on Strength of schedule, the fight matrix post and Leland's post.  They really got my brain going about this useful stat.  SoS is used in the calculation of BCS rankings and talked about in college basketball rankings and seeding for the torney, but it can be applied to other sports.  I think it will be useful to judge a persons body of work at a glance in MMA.  It is by no means a be all end all determining factor in a fight, but an indicator of how a person has faired over a career.  A fighters record falls short in doing this for obvious reasons.  Take a look at the record of Randy Couture and Jason Reinhardt to make this point clear. 

The approaches taken by JCS and Leland are similar to those taken by other sports. Leland is close to the BCS calculation and JCS is a more standard approach, but MMA poses some unique issues.  Namely, careers span ten or fifteen years and we don't have a nice tight season in which to analyze.  JCS uses the sliding window of three years around a given fight to gain this "point in time" perspective.  Another issue is the schedules lack uniformity.  A fighter can be more or less active.  A football team may play an easy schedule, but they all play about the same number of games.  So there is a margin for error when fighters are less active.  JCS uses a min of 100 opponent fights to gauge a schedule. 

The BCS approach that Leland takes is good.  It is very close to the real BCS calculation.  He has done some filtering to address the issues I have stated that make MMA <> to college football, but it is a great start.  There are, however, a few rules that the BCS uses that Leland didn't apply.  Well, one really that stuck out at me.  How D-II schools factor into the records of D-I schools.  A win is dropped, but a loss counts.  How can this be translated to MMA?  What is the D-I and D-II of MMA?  What I propose is that wins count if the loser has fought in a major organization and losses always count.  What is a major organization is open for debate.  And should a time window be applied to that question, I am not sure.  It has everything to do with how an opponent's record is calculated. 

                The things I like about the method JCS uses is the sliding window put in place for a uniform schedule, but I don't think is solves anything.  It makes the stat more timely, but it also trims the sample drastically.  You can't know how big a win was for a fighter for 18 months.  Logically that is true, but that's a long time.  I think the proper way to do it is to look at all fights in the past three years.  This will take some tweaking and I am sure JCS and Leland will make some changes and play with the numbers a bit, but a lot can happen in three years.

As in keeping with the BCS calculations, head to head match ups should be taken out when calculating an opponent's record.  To see a sample of the BCS calculation. I will be running the numbers as soon as I can gather the data and get geeky with some sql.  But I want to discuss some of the issues and mitigate the unique issue and complexities that MMA poses.  Any ideas?  Questions? 

With no live feed anywhere for the new Bellator fight first show last night, people all over the MMA community are trying to avoid spoilers.  Sherdog.com not only has spoilers, but has results in the title of articles on the front page.  This is simply irresponsible.  By all means have a spoiler for those spoiler hawks, but NOT in the title on the front page.  I think they will ruin a lot of peoples days.  They need to change the title of there article promtly.  Its not like this event went out live in any way.  It is bad form to have the results in the title. 

As everyone here at BE knows by now, UCW will be this Saturday, Feb. 21st.  Now I ask you, who is hardcore enough to go to the weigh ins?  They will be Friday the 20th. Last I heard, they start at 4:00PM and will be in the ballroom of the Hyatt Fair Lakes Hotel in Fairfax, VA.  They are open to the public as far as I know so I am going to be there baring a traffic nightmare on my way from MD.  I expect the turnout to be slightly larger then for the Affliction weight in because I will be there and they other person coming with me to the show wil be there, so thats two.  I don't know when they will be done, but I am sure they will be done in time to see the MFC show on HDNet that starts at 10. So, who will join me?

via www.uwcmma.com

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For the past several days I have been reading statements made by St. Pierre and Greg Jackson about our fight on January 31. St. Pierre claims that he is “not a cheater” and that he and Greg Jackson will have “no problem with a rematch in the summer of 2009.” To the untrained eye the grease might not look like much, but every grappler knows the effect that it has. Being able to apply your submissions and sweeps or just being able to hold on to your opponent to defend yourself from being hit is absolutely critical! There is a reason why you are not allowed to put grease anywhere on your body except for the area around your eyes. Because of the grease applied to St.Pierre’s Body the Nevada State Athletic Commission’s executive director, Keith Kizer has stated that the Penn-St. Pierre fight “definitely wasn’t fair”. I hereby accept George St. Pierre and Greg Jackson’s challenge for a fight in the summer 2009. Lets call Dana now and set it up.

- BJ Penn

BJ Penn posted this note on his facebook.  I would post a link, but it may be broken to all that are not his friend.

Rematch On? 

From the Underground

 To all My Fans, unfortunely i am not gonna be able to fight UFC 17 in Tampa Florida, i just tore my ACL on my right knee last saturday....

I think you  guys deserve to hear that from me.

I just want to take care of that , and Joe lauzon you're lucky mother fucker lololol.(J/K)

Thank you UFC,my fans, friends for the support, i was training hard and i was so excited ,but there's      nothing i can do, (could be worse), so Hermes franca will take a break for some recovery,and come back  stronger than ever like i always do!!!!

God Bless you guys!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hermes "The unreal"Franca

 

Would have been a good fight.  Franca goes on to have a pretty funny exchange with Lauzon. After the jump I picked out that thread to make it easy to read.

Very sorry to hear. I was looking forward to it.

Joe "The Luckiest Guy on Earth" Lauzon

Me too brother,but it is or it is!!!! 

HF

Good luck with the recovery. I was hoping we could beat each other up... ideally me beating you up a little bit more... but a fight either way.

Best of luck.  

JL

lol Joe, u have no idea how excited i was to fight against you,  especially when i saw your brother fighting,man he sucks uhauahuahauha!!!!!!!

Next time for sure, maybe we can fight like kimbo, in the back yard just to see what is up!!!!!

Hey dan L. no offense!!!!

HF

 Hey Hermes, make sure you make it to your AA meetings. Go fuck yourself. Had a lot of respect for you before this. 

No offense.    JL

lol i will joe to  the AA meetings with your mom,

no offense!!!!!

HF

And last but not least HF adds.

p.s. Blow me

This was a joke, but fun none the less.  One of the reasons I love MMA.  People that are going to punch eachother in the face can joke like this. 

Is Miguel Torres the best, pound for pound fighter in the world?  At the age of 27 he sit atop his much unheralded and under recognized weight class.  He has defeated every opponent he has fought and has finished 80% of his fights.  He has not gone to a decision in three years.  Over his career he has regularly fought much heavier opponents. Opponents weighing as much as 205lbs.  His only blemish on an otherwise remarkable record was a decision loss to Ryan Ackerman.  A loss that was avenged two years later by finishing Ackerman in the first round by armbar.  Sure Torres is great, but is his track record a who’s who of nobodies? Not exactly, but he could use a clearer path to top competition.  That’s what the WEC brings to the lighter weights in the states.  Torres has been a force to this point, but there is still much to prove.  How much further does Torres have to go to be crowned the best?  How can someone end his run as a powerhouse bantam? What exactly is a bantam?  All this and more, after the jump.

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Thanks Nick for pulling out the quote. Radio Interview

Monsters : Even though you only had an hour to get ready for this fight against kimbo, what was your strategy fighting against Kimbo, uh, err, uh, were you tryin to uh, submission him out?

Seth Petruzelli: My original plan was to throw a lot of push kicks, called teeps, and try to rush in more, and then shoot in on him, obviously.

M: So you wanted to get him on the ground? There’s no way you wanted to box him standing up?

SP: Not really, but I train with lots of undefeated pro boxers, a couple guys have a belt, and my style kinda throws them off a bit, I have kind of an awkward style. So, I knew I would do alright standing up with him. THE PROMOTERS KINDA HINTED TO ME, AND THEY GAVE ME THE MONEY TO STAND AND TRADE WITH HIM. THEY DIDN’T WANT ME TO TAKE HIM DOWN. LETS JUST PUT IT THAT WAY.

M: Ahhh.. ok.

SP: It was worth my while to try and stand up and punch with him."

This is fixing a fight, make no mistake.  Using money to give a fighter an advantage is fixing a fight.  Petruzelli maybe didn't get it.  This is not a post fight bonus. The UFC gives bonus' for sub, KO, and fight of the night.  The sub and KO bonus are win bonus' so they can't be looked at as fixing.  Fight of the night is for exciting fights and both fighters involved get it.  It gives you no incentive to lose.  This type of prefight "hint" with money offered behind it to stand is fixing.  Of course I assume they thought Slice had the advantage standing and it didn't work out the way they wanted, but it seems like a clear example of trying to affect the outcome. 

The question remains about his contract structure and if he would have made more money if he had lost or less if he won on the ground.  Did they bump him up in dollars to take the main event fight or did they have an agreement for him to stand?  On the surface, it stinks.  It looks like they are fixing fights.  It sounds like he was paid to fight a certain way and was not told to lose.  That is comparable to point shaving and fixing ATS.  Handcuffing a guy and paying him to not take it to the ground changes the fight entirly.  We will have to wait to hear more...

It's my one-year goal -- to win both titles. I'll fight anyone UFC wants me to fight. I'm not scared of anyone. I train ridiculously hard for all my fights. I drive myself to the point of exhaustion. In the past, I've collapsed in the gym. When I'm training for a fight, I work out thrice a day from six to eight weeks. Each day, I do 50 minutes of conditioning, including working six six-minute rounds, then 1 1/2 hours of repetition drills and finally, 1 1/2 hours of doing whatever my coaches want, like sparring or banging the bag or hitting the mitts.... After I get the heavyweight belt, I'm going after Rampage (light heavyweight champion Quinton Jackson). I've already challenged Rampage. We've agreed that whoever wins will buy a car of his opponent's choice but the plate will show the word `loser.' I wouldn't like to drive a Lamborghini with `loser' on the plate so I don't intend to lose.. I've trained with Rampage and he's tough. But when the title's on the line, it's anything goes in the UFC."

-Brandon Vera.  Fighting a guy he has trained with and using the word thrice.  How can you not love this guy.  Also, he reps Lloyd Irvin.  

Props to MMAMania for the quote. I just thought I would share.

Good response to my "Dana White Blew It" post. Keep writing diaries folks, we love 'em. -- Kid Nate

The UFC is undergoing a huge change.  A transition from the record PPV buys being all important to a more stable consistent product.  They have moved from one show per quarter to about 20 a year.  There are more free shows, which means they are generating more revenue outside PPV buys.  They are making less money per event, but having 5 times more events.  The biggest monetary clue that this is improving the bottom line is the fight bonuses keep raising and the fighter purses are treading up. Neither of which would happen if the company had credit problems.  This is why the analysis downgrade is a poor call.  If UFC was a public company it would be a good time to buy.

Now on to your article that basically agrees with the downgrade even though it has nothing to do with fighting and everything to do with questioning the UFCs business model.  They eliminated there top competition and got a huge video library of film to both sell and promote fights.  There is no question in the minds of fans who the top MMA organization is.  How much is that worth?  I would say a lot when the sport is growing as fast as it is.  Did they screw up and not make sure the fighter contracts would transfer?  I would say yes, but it likely wouldn't have been a deal breaker if they were smart.  Look at one big example, Fedor.  Fedor was number one in the world.  His contract didn't transfer and he went elsewhere.  Now he can't fight the top competition that mostly resides in the UFC.  People are starting to question if he should still be number one.  His stock is dropping and the UFC wins in the deal.  

Moving on to the pay cable deal.  I say that HBO screwed the pooch on this one.  They had something so close that could have made them a lot of money and they wanted to take to much control of it.  The UFC wanted to keep all control of there product and rightfully so.  If HBO did a shitty job in production it would only hurt the UFC.  Pay cable would expose the product to many more people for the first time and if it was poorly done then it's a fight up hill to get then back in the door.  EliteXC signed a deal so they could just get on TV.  We may find out that they signed all there rights away and it could be there downfall.  Showtime could start marketing a "bloodsport" like the old days.  What do they care?  They are just trying to maximize profit.

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