Jeff Wilson has the Darvish contract year by year over at the Startlegram blog:

2012: $5.5 million

2013: $9.5 million

2014: $10 million

2015: $10 million

2016: $10 million

2017: $11 million

$56M guaranteed, $4M to be earned through bonuses, 2017 can be opted out with high level Cy Young award votes, as we've heard. Add $8.6M a year for the posting fee if you like. So, if Darvish were able to opt out, it would mean the Rangers received a Cy Young-level performance for 5 years at roughly $49M (assuming bonuses achieved). I'll take that.

Go ahead, backload that Fielder contract, would you?

Read more here: http://startelegramsports.typepad.com/foul_territory/#storylink=cpy

July 10 in what is increasingly looking like the top minor league system in baseball:

SPO-8:30 - Alvarez

HIC-4:00 - Jackson?

MYR-12:30 - Loux

FRS-6:00 - Erlin?

RRE-7:00 - Feldman

AZL-PM - Parra?

Feldman makes his last rehab start, and I believe he must be on the ML roster after.  Who gets bumped?

Also, the MILB Futures Game is at 5:00 today, featuring Martin Perez and Jurickson Profar.  The game is on ESPN2.  Profar is the youngest participant, being 4 months younger than Bryce Harper.

Hi all, Western New York expat here looking for some food recommends.  We're heading back to WNY for a family visit in a couple of weeks and I'd like to take my wife out for some of the best WNY grub.  I grew up in the southtowns, Gowanda area, so my faves usually include Hamburg's Now Pizzeria (good subs and wings) and Ted's Hot Dogs (Orchard Park, I think).  Some of my other favorites have either closed or changed so much they're no longer great (Adriaccio's at Chautauqua, or that little place down in Zoar Valley I can't remember the name of.)

I love the wings at the Now, but any recommends are more than welcome.  I'd like to know where the best Beef on Weck can be found, and any general ideas as well. We'll be going to Niagara Falls while there, so anything in that area would be great to know about.  Thanks in advance!

Yesterday there was an interesting subthread on the drop in offense the last couple of years in the major leagues.  To avoid a really long, irrelevant series of posts in between that discussion, I've linked my comment.  Click the "up" button to see the original post in the thread.

Spurred partly by that discussion, I wanted to post some basic 2011 numbers for the different minor leagues for reference.  When looking at our prospects' stats I like to be at least vaguely aware of their league environments and park factors.  Below are some figures for the 4 full season leagues relevant to the Rangers.  Resources used include Baseball Reference's minor league pages, StatCorner, and Firstinning.com. 

Pacific Coast League - AAA  Round Rock Express

• Park Factors:  With 100 as a league average, StatCorner lists Round Rock's wOBA figures as 102 for LHB and 98 for RHB.  (OKC is 101/99)  It is, however, a HR depressor for lefties, at a park factor of 88/99.
• League slash lines:  .282/.358/.440.  The PCL has trended up overall the last couple seasons, bucking the major league trend over that time. 
• Runs per game/BB rate/K rate:  5.56/9.8%/17.9%
• Average age - 26.9

Texas League - AA Frisco Roughriders

• Park Factors:  98/100 for wOBA; 89/114 for HR.  
• League slash lines:  .262/.338/.418. 
  
• RPG/BB/K:  4.96/9.4%/19.1%
• Average age - 24.0

Carolina League - A+ Myrtle Beach Pelicans

• Park Factors:  96/98 wOBA; 95/102
• League slash lines:  .244/.315/.374
• RPG/BB/K:  4.11/8.3%/20.6%
• Average age - 22.8

South Atlantic League - A Hickory Crawdads

• Park Factors:  106/100 wOBA; 148/113 HR     Lefty hitters get a real boost here. 
  
• League slash lines:  .264/.337/.404
• RPG/BB/K:  4.93/8.5%/20.4%
• Average age - 21.4

American League numbers, for comparison:

League slash - .250/.320/.389, wow that looks odd seeing the AL barely clear the .700 OPS mark. 

Runs per game/BB rate/K rate - 4.22/8.7%/17.6%

Arlington park factors - 103/106 wOBA; 120/109 HR

As players move up through the system they'll face some changing run and park environments.  It's a bit easier to draw a walk in the TX league than in the Carolina League, and you're quite a bit less likely to strike out in the PCL this year. 

To choose just one example of how this helps me put stats in context (or confirm my biases if you prefer) this kind of stuff makes me a tiny bit more impressed with Mike Olt and less so with Mendonca.  Olt's high walk-high strikeout line compares better with his league than Mendonca's miniscule walk rate and sky high K rate.  Also, it takes, on average, nearly 56 plate appearances to see a HR in Olt's league, but just 39 in the TX League.  That also makes Erlin's HR rate a tad bit more alarming. 

From BP, but not behind the paywall, a great article on some tendencies in strike zone variations and the value of catcher framing.  It seems that umpires vary the strike zone a bit depending on how pitchers throw to different hitters, with one Ranger brought up as an example:

For example, Jason Kendall hangs over home plate and is among the batters with the highest hit-by-pitch rates. Nonetheless, his strike zone was shifted almost an inch inside relative to the average right-handed batter. On the other end of the spectrum, Nelson Cruz has a very upright stance that keeps him away from the plate, and he is near the low end on hit-by-pitch rates. However, his strike zone was shifted almost an inch outside relative to average. What could be causing this disparity?

You might know that Kendall displayed the last vestiges of a power stroke during final years of the Clinton administration, while Cruz had a slugging percentage of .555 over the last three years. Despite Kendal’s tendency to crowd the plate, pitchers are unafraid to come inside and over the plate to him, whereas low and away is the favorite spot for a hurler confronting Cruz.

The typical pitch location seen by the batter has a strong correlation to the horizontal shift in his strike zone. Batters who see more pitches on the outside edge also see their strike zone boundaries shift farther away on both the outside and inside edges of the plate. Batters who see more pitches on the inside edge see their strike zone boundaries shift toward the inside.

Perhaps not surprisingly, this jives with the theory that catchers and pitchers can influence the ump's zone if the pitcher is consistently hitting the catcher's target.  The article found that Francisco Cervelli was able to coax a few more strike calls than Posada in games started by Vazquez. 

The article also indicates that pitchers who throw more on the edges of the zone get a larger strike zone than pitchers who throw more strikes, but more strikes in the middle of the zone. 

I suspect that most teams, including the Rangers, have some proprietary data on stuff like this.  The Rangers place a high value on a catcher's work behind the plate (the stuff that fangraphs cannot measure and quantify) and this article shows why.

Some of this has been suggested and theorized for many years, but now the data is backing it up with details and nuances.  There is a LOT more in the article, check it out.

It's time to predict what it will take to sign Lee. 

Here's what I think it will take:

• 5 years, $125M, vesting option for 6th year at same, team option for 7th year, $10M buyout
• No trade clause (Lee is going to insist on this)
• Private plane to fly to Ark from anywhere the Rangers play.  Rangers agree to fund R&D for teleportation device to make trips faster.
  
• Hefty donation to Leukemia charity org of Lee family's choice, frequent drives for favored charity each year.
• bonuses for ALCS and WS MVP, Cy Young
• up to 12 comely lasses available on call 24/7.  These can be offered to CJ Wilson and other pitchers as wished.
• Mr. Lee will be referred to as Cliff Lee!!! in all official team publications.
• Ballwasher, hand picked by Cliff Lee!!!, on call 24/7.
• Rose petals to be strewn in front of Cliff Lee!!! as he walks.
• Birthday becomes TX state holiday

Post your predictions and vote in the poll below. 

I was surprised no one had put up a recap yet, so I'm going to attempt to remember a few things.  I'm hoping those of you who were also there also will chime in with more details. Both Q & A's went on for an hour or so, I think, a ton of questions, all answered thoroughly with candor.

Kevin Goldstein:

• The Rangers' front office is right up there with the AL East trio as one of the smartest in the business
• The Royals might have the best minor league system right now.  (I'm paraphrasing here):  "When I made my midseason top 11 prospects list, guys left in the minors, I wrote down 22 names and there were 5 Royals on the list."  He also said one of them he might pick over Martin Perez, but I didn't catch exactly what he said and he didn't say which one. (Moustakas?  Montgomery?)
• On the struggles of Martin Perez, he said he's learning a lot right now, probably the first time he's really been hit and he's having to adjust, he'll be fine.  Maybe the best lefty in the minors.
• The Rangers are not a one or two year team, they are built for a good run of 5 to 8 years of contention.
• Someone asked about the other AL West teams' systems.  The Angels have a pretty weak system after Trout, for the first time in quite a while.  The Mariners have a few guys, but the A's will be the team that could potentially challenge the Rangers run the next few years.  A lot of good pitching already on the big league club, and quite a few good hitters on the way soon.
• Feliz - shot at rotation?  This team sees him as their future closer, I hope he gets a chance.
• On Profar - I'm writing at home and I get a call from a scout, a good friend.  What do you know about Profar?  Goldstein responds, not much yet, just that TX signed him and he's in AZ.  Scout replies, well he's playing way beyond his years, yada yada.   Next day, gets another call from a different scout, what do you know, well he's playing like a much older player, yada yada.  Profar is special.  Later said Profar should definitely stick at SS, and might hit better than Elvis with more power (this rubber band has more power than Elvis...).
• Liked the Lee deal, flags fly forever, has a great effect on the rest of the rotation and clubhouse, gives them a chance to win a postseason series.  Smoak is good, but trade was worth it, basically.

Jon Daniels:

• Standing ovation on introduction.  When the applause died down he deadpanned "I'm still the guy who traded Adrian Gonzalez."
• Feliz - shot at rotation next year?  Right now he's the team's closer and we like him in that roll.  For next year we'll consider it.  He might be the closer next year, too, and even the year after that, and it still wouldn't mean he'd never get a shot at the rotation.  Just like CJ, who we felt improved, matured, etc. and is now a great fit in the rotation.  We'll keep options open, etc.
• Who will come up in September?  I didn't hear all of this but mentioned Scheppers first as a guy we might see before September 1. 
  
• What is the market inefficiency the Rangers are utilizing?  Daniels said our people may be our most underrated asset.  Talked for quite a while about how much he believes in Levine, Preller (both of whom were there), on down to the scouts, and about how every guy on the roster is a good fit in the clubhouse.  In past years, maybe they had 20 good guys, but right now it's 25 good guys.  A lot of that comes from Wash (similar to reported comments in the papers the last few days.)
• Brian Thomas asked if the team had any proprietary info on catchers' game calling skills, and if not, what else they relied on.  Daniels replied that they do not have any data specifically related to game calling skills, it's really a feel kind of thing where you have to trust the scouts, coaches, and players.  He said that in addition to the publicly reported comments from Lincecum, Scioscia, and others, that he received quite a few private calls from other Molina colleagues who all raved about his pitcher handling skills.  He added that the team really wanted a guy who could get the best out of young pitchers going into places like Yankee Stadium or Fenway in a playoff atmosphere.  
• What player is the biggest surprise this year?  They couldn't pick between Lewis, Wilson, and Hunter.  Then, of course, he said it wasn't a total surprise because they believed in those players.  Early on with Lewis they were thinking a minor league deal, but the scouts (and then, later, competings teams offers) made it clear that he was a multi-year, major league deal worthy guy. 
  
• Can you talk about the effects of Lee on the rest of the staff?  It's no accident that Wilson is charting Lee's last couple of starts, and Wilson is basically Lee with more movement on his pitches and some other quality I can't remember...all the guys are excited and trying to soak up what they can.
• Any chance at re-signing Lee?  Let's give him a chance to just be here, only been here a few days.  Winning is a great recruiting tool, hopefully we go far into the postseason and he likes it here.  We knew going into this that there was a good chance he'd only be here for the rental period.  We thought it was worth it and then maybe he resigns here, and if not we get the draft picks.
• Extra rest for Lewis and Wilson down the stretch?  We've already done some of that and will continue to do so, but we feel good about their ability to continue.  Wilson's diet, physical health are great, etc.  Lee pitching is basically a night off for the bullpen.
• The team didn't feel that this year's international class was that great. lots of depth, but few potential superstars in their view.
• Claimed that when they picked Skole there was no one left on their draft board higher than him.  They really like is ceiling and are challenging him in a league of older players right now even though his stats won't be good.  

Ok, that's all I got off the top of my head, I didn't take notes.  Kudos to Jamey for a well-coordinated event.  The auction and raffle raised something like $12,000.

Newberg Night this Sunday - who is going?  Hopefully the Rangers will be going for the sweep over the LAAngels.

Brian Thomas, BZA and I are planning to meet for lunch somewhere close to the park at about 1:30-1:40ish, time to eat and still get to the auditorium when it opens around 3 or so.   We'd love to have more LSBers join us.   Mariano's?  Pappadeaux?  Dickey's?  Restaurant ideas please...

I'm trying to think of good questions to ask Daniels, but all I can think of so far are thing I know he can't or won't actually answer.

Daniel Kaplan is tweeting that the failed bidders have been invited to sit at the table with the Rangers and the federal mediator:

Breaking News: Spurned Texas Rangers bidders invited to federal mediation: more in SBD today

Craig Calcaterra has some comments on the new development:

No matter the case, having the bidders around and, more or less, on the record, would make any final disposition in the case a lot neater inasmuch no one could later complain that a low or inadequate bidder won. They'd actually have to say something official and out in the open. Ultimately, that makes for a more transparent process.

Kaplan will supposedly have an update or article up later.

Does anyone know a good way to look up and measure the strength of the starting pitching a team has faced?  I see lots of articles in the MSM about strength of the overall teams faced, but I would like to be able to break that down a bit more.  I'd like to simply separate the exact starters (and their stats, of course) in the games played series by series. 

Thanks for your suggestions...

The wonderful reference maintained by his eminence, The Mushroomed One.

In Hickory, the hotter-than-anyone-not-named-Holland Matt Thompson pitches today at 6:00.

Bakersfield features Michael Main tonight at 9:15.

Kiker was feeling generous today for Frisco.  88 pitches got him through just 3.2IP, 4R, all earned, 5 walks, a hit batsmen, just 2 strikeouts. 

His 3rd inning was pretty foul: ground out, ground out, single, runner advances to 2nd on wild pitch, hit by pitch (K. Clemens), wild pitch advances runners to 2nd and 3rd, walks J.R.Towles, German Duran single plates 2.  Popup.

Teagarden had a passed ball in the 4th, but with Kiker having control issues I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt on this one.  Tea went 3 for 4 with a 2B and one K.

Ballard goes for OKC at 7.

Researchers are reporting the first scientific evidence that a hormone banned in sports can boost athletic performance.

Aha, you see, t ball?  We told you!

The improvement from human growth hormone was modest, and only in sprinting. It didn't increase strength or fitness.

Umm, well...

Growth hormone has been used by athletes in the belief that it builds muscle and improves performance. It's also harder to detect than other substances because it doesn't show up in urine tests.

Some of these guys also wear magnetic arm bands, wear the same shirt every day, and do anything else they even suspect might improve their game or ward off voodoo curses.  They believe it will help.  I believe in Santa Claus.

They lifted weights, jumped and rode exercise bikes to test their physical performance. Growth hormone didn't improve strength, power or endurance, the researchers said. The only improvement was for sprinting on a bicycle, a 4 percent increase in sprint capacity compared to those who didn't get the hormone. In men who also got testosterone shots, there was an 8 percent increase.

It's a waste of time and money to test for this stuff. 

The study volunteers who took growth hormone lost body fat and gained lean body mass, but it was mostly from water retention, not from bulking up muscle, the researchers reported in Tuesday's issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine.

Side effects included swelling and joint pain.

Bah.  And, to repeat myself, I am still far from convinced that steroids have much - if anything - to do with home run totals or increased offense.  Pitchers took steroids, too; the strike zone was notably smaller; expansion; reports of a juiced ball;  All of these things could have and probably did affect scoring in the "steroid" era.  And home run totals have been steadily increasing for 100 years.

PED's should be legal and supervised and studied extensively on elite athletes.  And Chicken Little types in the media should both own up to how they neglected covering drug use for decades and stop using anecdotes as evidence they have a huge effect on scoring.  Here's the link to the article.

According to Evan Grant, the team may need to borrow more from MLB to make payroll as soon as next month, and it may make signing draft picks nearly impossible for anything over slot. 

According to multiple club and industry sources, the Rangers will have to reach deeper into a $25 million line of credit Major League Baseball extended them if the sale is not completed by early June. The Rangers have taken $16 million since MLB extended the line of credit last summer. That was enough to last a year. Payroll has stayed essentially flat. So have revenues. Come the end of May, there could be financial issues.

This actually serves as incentive for both MLB and the lenders, now led by hedge fund Monarch Alternative Capital, to finalize a deal 14 months in the making.

After that? Everybody's position would take a turn for the worse. And while MLB would eventually get its money back and the lenders would eventually recoup most, if not all, of their money, the poor Rangers could be left with a barren draft class. There would be no impact on the day-to-day operations of the club, but big-ticket items (think over-slot draft bonuses and payroll flexibility) would once again be out of the question.

Apparently, despite all the noisy back and forth last week between MLB and Hicks, there are has been zero progress.  Damnit this sucks.

Good story.  The players apparently continue to be behind Washington and the clubhouse is unified.  If you believe in chemistry I guess this is a good thing. 

After the revelation, Washington addressed his players in their spring training clubhouse and told them he did not deserve sympathy. He asked for their honest reaction, and third baseman Michael Young, the six-time All-Star and the leader of a young clubhouse, was the first to stand.

"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said, according to Washington. "This team has been going in the right direction since you took it over, and you are my manager."

Daniels said the reaction reaffirmed that keeping Washington had been the right call. The feeling grew stronger later that day, when Washington made a round of cuts and players still treated him respectfully.

Check it out.