SB Nation User Blog: taiko

The FO "Worst Team Ever" watch is back on

taiko — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 23:53:29 -0000

The FO "Worst Team Ever" watch is back on

Well, the 1976 Bucs are probably safe, but... "The Rams have gone below -100% DVOA in two of their last three games and are threatening the 2005 49ers for the title of 'worst team in DVOA history.' "

Q: How would you convince St. Louis fans that this Rams team isn't ... is just not that bad?...

taiko — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 03:34:59 -0000

Q: How would you convince St. Louis fans that this Rams team isn't ... is just not that bad?

Haslett: "Who's sayin' I want to? ... It looks pretty bad to me."

Rams post-game press conference on NFL.com

Happier Thoughts

taiko — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 04:46:34 -0000

via icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com

Watching the Rams, and talking about the Rams all week, has had me in a lousy mood. I'm in the mood now to write a post that doesn't have the words M___ B______ in it. Here were things that I liked seeing -- keeping in mind that I missed most of the second half:

- Antonio Pittman really responded to Haslett's challenge, and played over his head. He gave the offense a spark, and seems to be on the same page with the coach. He even made the offensive line look good for a quarter. He should be kept on the island - the perfect example of what a backup running back should be.

- I liked the offensive playcalling of the first 15 plays and into the early second quarter. I don't know if Saunders can succeed long-term without the mammoth offensive lines he had in KC and Washington, but it was starting to look okay.

- OJ Atogwe and Jason Craft combined for a truly sweet defensive play at the end of Gore's breakout run. Atogwe is a player, and Craft was in the right place at the right time.

- Darby got touches and didn't leave them on the ground.

- I raked a lot of leaves, and saw a bitchin sunset.

During the offseason, I picked the Rams as one of my five surprise teams for possible turnaround,...

taiko — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 17:48:02 -0000

During the offseason, I picked the Rams as one of my five surprise teams for possible turnaround, based on St. Louis having an easy schedule and an accurate, talented quarterback in Marc Bulger. However, I changed my rating on them once I watched the preseason: .... They are a mess. Something is really, really wrong here.

John Clayton on ESPN

NFL.com: Mark Bulger Benched

taiko — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:25:22 -0000

NFL.com: Mark Bulger Benched

Frankly, I'm a little surprised.

EDIT: John Clayton reports the same for ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3604491

Silver Linings

taiko — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 17:25:02 -0000

Some positives from Week 3:

1. Change is coming. Soon.

2. For the second straight week, the Rams made legitimate halftime adjustments and came out with a more creative and effective offensive package. Now if we can just extend that to pregame planning...

3. There is no three.

Of course, without an NFL-grade defense, we're destined to go 0-16 against an NFL schedule. This is why the Rams should be thinking outside the box, looking for exhibition games against nontraditional opponents, to pad our win total for the year. Some teams we could be competitive against:

The Pee-wee All Stars from the "special" school district.

The senior clown college leatherheads.

A box of kittens found by the roadside.

Why not keep Anthony Reyes in the bullpen all year?

taiko — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 18:04:59 -0000

While Reyes has not exactly been a "revelation" so far this year, it is clear that he has regained confidence in himself and his stuff. His velocity is up 3-5 mph from last season. He has apparently accepted his role in the bullpen, as a means of sticking with the major league team, and is making the most of it. But for one two-out two-strike pitch, he would have a spotless record (and a save). He has been able to pitch and pitch effectively every two or three days, which is also a surprise.

To my mind, spending the season in the pen may be a necessary step in the evolution of Reyes as a big league pitcher. And it would fit La Russa's preferred method of bringing young pitchers along - having them "pay their dues."

Given that the alternative is a season-long battle with five other guys for the #5 rotation spot, or getting sent down to AAA, I can think of a few pros and cons for this scenario:

PROS:

Reyes gets into 50 or 60 games against big leaguers, as opposed to 20-25. (A fifth starter rarely makes 30 starts).

With short stints, Reyes can go "all out" with his fastball, reinforcing his arm strength and mechanics at 92-93 mph.

In long relief, Reyes can work as a three-pitch pitcher, but doesn't have to rely on all three if one of them isn't working.

TLR can adjust his usage from low leverage to high leverage situations, depending on his confidence in the kid.

With all the rehabees and ex-bullpenners, we should still see a good number of 4- and 5-inning starts, increasing the need for effective long relief. It's a valuable role on this ballclub, not a dumping ground.

Having built up numerous successful outings, Reyes thoroughly rebuilds his confidence and the team's confidence in him.

Reyes gains trade value through versatility? (debatable).

CONS:

Reyes is no longer conditioned as a starter, and would have to be reconditioned next season.

Reyes gets maybe 100 innings against big leaguers, as opposed to 150-180.

Reyes does not get a chance to reverse last year's W-L record.

If Reyes flames out as a reliever, his career hits the bottom of the barrel and breaks through it. He ends up a homeless drunk who lives under a tarp in Ballpark Village and becomes a public nuisance who relieves himself daily on the statue of Bob Gibson.

Reyes loses trade value? (not sure what there is to lose, but debatable).

In my opinion, the pros outweigh the cons, especially if he can continue to pitch as well as he can in this role.

El Birdos Button Found this on Craisglist while searching for Amadee art. Thought there might be...

taiko — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 04:16:07 -0000

El Birdos Button

Found this on Craisglist while searching for Amadee art. Thought there might be some interest here. (no, I'm not the one selling it.)

The Unsexy Free Agents of 2007

taiko — Thu, 21 Jun 2007 22:18:27 -0000

There was a game last night between San Diego and Baltimore that featured two starting pitchers that were waiver claims this past offseason, both of whom are havaing outstanding years: Justin Germano and Jeremy Guthrie. It made me wonder how many of these guys there are this year, contributing to the ML roster. When we talk about the scarcity of talent available among free agent starting pitching last offseason, we shouldn't ignore these guys.

Justin Germano, San Diego - 24 years old.
5-1 record, 2.63 ERA, 0.958 WHIP
Originally drafted by San Diego out of high school, was later traded to the Reds for Joe Randa, then to Philly for Rheal Cormier. Pitched full seasons in the minors in 2005 and 06, with a brief callup last year with Cincy. Has pitched in 9 games in the majors prior to this season. I'm not sure why Philly released him, though it's likely his number wouldn't be as good if they had kept him. He's not a high strikeout guy (4.5 K/9), and he's essentially a flyball pitcher (49% GB rate) who doesn't give up a lot of home runs (0.63 HR/9) and hardly any walks (better than 3/1 K/BB).

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore - 28 years old
4-1 record, 2.42 ERA, 0.894 WHIP
Drafted by Cleveland out of college in 2002, appeared in 16 games at the major league level before this year. He has been called up and down so many times that he is now out of options, and has had to pitch his way into a major-league job. Since joining the rotation in May, he has only had two starts where he failed to go at least 7 innings... his first two. Like Germano, he is a fly ball pitcher who doesn't walk anyone (1.7 BB/9, vs 7 K/9) and doesn't give up home runs (0.62 HR/9). Looks like Mazzone may not have lost his touch altogether.

Jorge Sosa, Mets - 30 years old
6-3 record, 4.09 ERA, 1.181 WHIP
Released by the Redbirds, and signed by the Mets in January, and was sent to the minors after spring training. His success may be fleeting, as his K (5.1/9) and BB (3.2/9) ratios are essentially the same as they have been over the past three years. But his hits allowed have dropped sharply, and his home runs allowed has fallen off the shelf, from 1.99/game in '05 to 2.99!/game last year to 0.88/game this season. HR allowed will dictate his success or failure, since he's a marked fly ball pitcher.

Rodrigo Lopez, Colorado - 31 years old
3-0 record, 2.90 ERA, 1.240 WHIP
Not a waiver claim, but acquired for pennies on the dollar from Baltimore in winter meetings - for minor leaguers Jason Burch and Jim Miller, neither of whom was a top-10 prospect withn the organization. (Burch was originally drafted by St Louis in the 23rd round, and included as part of the Larry Walker deal in 2004). Has improved his ground ball rate (50.6%) this year, a must for pitching at Coors, and has cut one full walk per game off his rate and also dropped his HR allowed. Currently outpitching Roger Clemens as we speak.

There are more out there that haven't seen the same kind of success - Buddy Carlyle with Atlanta, Jerome Williams (still only 25) and Jason Simontacci with the Nats, the immortal Sidney Ponson (since DFA'd) with the Twins, and Tomo Ohka (since DFA'd) with the Blue Jays. But nonetheless, these are examples of "unsexy" guys who were out there this past offseason. Any critique of the free agent pitching crop, and our inability to find quality, shouldn't ignore these players.

Anthony Reyes' very low "strand rate"

taiko — Tue, 22 May 2007 17:07:43 -0000

Interesting statistical analysis from Pro Trade on the Cardinals' team site, pointing out that Anthony Reyes is only stranding 54% of his base runners - which is an extremely low rate, lower than the lowest measured full-season rate (58% by Derek Lowe in 2004).

Link: http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070522&content_id=1979280&vkey=news_ stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

The thing is, the article suggests that this is something that is largely out of the pitcher's control, and is mostly a measure of luck. In fact, with his other peripherals in line, the authors are concluding that Reyes' terrible ERA is mostly a matter of bad luck, something that will even out over time.

However, this leads me to believe that there is something wrong with his pitching motion out of the stretch - either he is tipping pitches again, or is changing his selection, or isn't getting the same life. Look at this split from this year:

Bases empty: .196/ .255/ .324 -- 578 OPS against
With runners on: .319/ .372/ .580 -- 952 OPS against
With RISP: .318/ .360/ .682 -- 1042 OPS against

Is this bad luck, or is this an indicator of something that can be fixed?