There was a lot of talk recently about the Rays stubbornness to promote young players.  It's been touted as a management flaw, a slap in the face to the prospects, or some unhealthy obsession with mediocrity.  However, if you think about the history of the front office and their dedication to getting the most out of every piece, the entire chain of events can begin to make sense.

The Rays cannot try to compete every season.  It's just not possible within their constraints.  They must set themselves up for certain windows in which to compete.  Obviously 2008-2010 was one of those windows and 2012-2014 looks like the next.  Why not 2011?  The Rays do not have the financial ability to fill more than a handful of spots on the free agent market.  They must build from within, which is why they continually stock depth.  If they can find a cheap, internal solution to a hole, then the money saved can be allocated elsewhere.  The Damon/Ramirez deal was a low-risk high reward deal that could have pushed the team in 2011 and if it didn't work (which it didn't) it wasn't going to stunt the teams future growth.

The one opinion that must be taken as fact for any of this to make sense is that 2011 was always seen as a bridge between 2010 and 2012.  The Rays had a lot of questions going into 2011, but more importantly, the same problems would carry over into 2012.

Catcher - Is Jaso or Shoppach the answer?

1B - Is Dan Johnson a capable major leaguer again?

SS - Can Brignac be the every day SS?

OF - What pieces can be relied upon?  What will Joyce's role be?  Do Fuld or Ruggiano have any worth?

Pitching - What would be the best rotation for 2012?  Can Sonnanstine be a useful reliever/spot starter? What players will be candidates for the pen in 2012?  How will JP Howell bounce back?  Can Farnsworth close?  How will McGee translate to the majors?

Almost every action (or lack there of) during this season helped to answer a future question.  Regardless of how the season finishes, the 2011 season has made the picture for 2012 a lot clearer.

(As for Jennings, I have hard time believe the front office were the only people in the planet that didn't know Jennings was ready.  If they knew he'd be part of 2012, why not let the other outfielders get enough plate appearances to more accurately prove their value?)

Removed this conversation from the Bartlett thread...

Bartlett's UZR has taken quite the plunge the last couple years but is Bartlett or Longoria to blame?

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Disclaimer:  This is not a pro-Upton or anti-Upton post, just a matter of facts to dispute a claim.

I recently heard Wills or Andy Freed say that B.J. Upton was not a patient hitter.  They said he's not the prototypical leadoff hitter because he doesn't see a lot of pitchers.

It surprised me.  Wills and Freed are generally very good, and this seemed like a ridiculous statement.  Later on I heard someone refer to BJ as a free swinger. 

Upton's perception has changed since last year.  He's not the hitter who waits too long and looks for the perfect pitch.  He's now seen as an impatient free swinger.

BJ Upton loves the first pitch, he always has.  In 2007 Upton has swung at the first pitch 35%, then 34% in 2008, and 34% in 2009.  That's pretty consistent and hasn't changed. Could that be what makes him a free swinger?

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The recent Zobrist 30/30 article almost gave me an opportunity to throw out the name "Howard Johnson".  Just saying how HoJo was a three time 30/30 guy would give me a nice flashback to my childhood.

Prior to commenting I decided to give Howard Johnson's stats a quick look and was somewhat surprised to see how his first 30/30 came about...

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Jason Stark on ESPN is reporting that Blake to the Dodgers for Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan is almost a done deal.

If it happens, which seems like it will, it makes a Rays trade less likely.  The highly rumored names are now gone and it seems that any trade that does happen will come from no where.  That's not necessarily a bad thing, but does eliminate a lot of the past rumors.

FWIW, Sickles ranked Meloan as the Dodgers #5 and a B prospect, Santana wasn't ranked but looks to be having a good year.

Link

A couple years ago I read an article by Bill Simmons talking about Wade Boggs' and Jim Rice's candidacy for the Hall of Fame.  Sports Guy basically said that Jim Rice was always remembered for getting the big hit and Wade was disliked for having no problem walking in the same situation.

This came to mind when thinking about B.J. this season.  A day doesn't go by when I read something about how Upton isn't having a good (or great year).  How he isn't playing up to last year and really needs to improve.  Everytime I try to understand it and I just never can.

BJ is hitting .284/.397/.424 and .308/.467/.415 with RISP.  Sure he isn't hitting for the power he did last year but he sure isn't playing poorly.

What does stick out, and what always seems to stick out in the minds of fans, is that BJ really doesn't have the game changing at bats.  He isn't one to get the big hit.  I immediately thought of the Wade Boggs commentary.  Is B.J. our Wade Boggs?  At least in those terms.

The numbers say so.  Upton has 21 non-intentional walks in 90 plate appearances with RISP.  That's a BB in every 4 PAs or a walk 23% of the time.  That's the best in baseball with players having 75 PA with RISP.  Removing HBP, the top five are:

1.  B.J. Upton - 24.14%

2. Brian Giles - 23.38%

3. Lyle Overbay - 23.29%

4. Chipper Jones -22.86%

5. Milton Bradley - 22.39%

What does this all mean?  Probably nothing.  But it could also mean a few things:

- Upton tightens up with RISP.  His walk rate goes from about 16% to 24%.  He makes the pitcher come to him or he doesn't swing.

- His RBI totals will be down.  If he doesn't swing with RISP than he won't drive in the runs.

- The hitters behind him will have more opportunities with RISP.  As the batters behind him start to hit better the teams runs scored should continue to rise.

- He will always be a tough person to judge.  Is he selfish or is he a team player?  Does he not want the glory of the RBI or is he trying to keep his stats up by not offering at anything he doesn't like?

I guess this is one of many things that makes him unique and one of many things that will alter the judgment of him.

One last thing, Wade Boggs walked in about 15% of these situations, so he has nothing on BJ.