SB Nation User Blog: tallyray

"I'm ready to call this a lousy season and be done with it."

tallyray — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 14:58:55 -0000

"I'm ready to call this a lousy season and be done with it."

Not sure it's worth discussing, but another negative article from a local columnist. No wonder the local fans are so hot and cold.

Does Longoria Make Bartlett Look Bad

tallyray — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 18:19:13 -0000

Removed this conversation from the Bartlett thread...

Bartlett's UZR has taken quite the plunge the last couple years but is Bartlett or Longoria to blame?

One thing that I noticed when looking at the 2009 UZR numbers is the apparent inverse relationship between the Top 3B and the SS that takes the field next to them.

Looking the top 7 from 2009 we have the following pairs (the top 7 have posted numbers clearly above the rest)

2009 Top 7 3B and SS rating

Evan Longoria 15.5________________Jason Bartlett -4.0
Ryan Zimmerman 15.5_____________Christian Guzman -5.2
Jack Hannahan 12.1_______________Orlando Cabrera -11.4
Joe Crede 10.9___________________Nick Punto 0.8
Adrian Beltre 9.5__________________Yuniesky Bentancourt -18.8
Brandon Inge 9.5_________________Adam Everett 0.5
Chone Figgins 11.2_______________Erick Aybar 2.1

Lets look at positional ranks of 3B and SS: (3B first, then SS based on UZR rank)

1 – 28
2 – 29
3 – 31
4 – 19
5 – 32
6 – 21
7 – 15
8 – 7
9 – 2
10 – 4

The first seven seem to show a strong inverse relationship then it just disappears.

I quickly pulled up the 2008 numbers and the relationship isn't nearly as strong. (Only ranked 27 3B and 29 SS based on sample)

1-13
2-27
3-21
4-12
5-9
6-3

Lets look at Orlando Cabrera. He has been the second worst SS this year based on UZR. He's at -11.4 this year. In 2008, however, he was the second best rated SS at +14. This year he has played most of the season with Jack Hannahan next to him and Hannahan has been one of the absolute best 3B the past two years. However, in 2008 he played next to Joe Crede who has been pretty good himself.

I'm surprised that this research hasn't been done in the past and that's the main purpose for posting this. My basic hypothesis would be that certain 3B can strongly affect the SS next to them and would guess that is the case with Longoria.

Anyone?

The Change in Perception of BJ Upton

tallyray — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:13:40 -0000

Disclaimer: This is not a pro-Upton or anti-Upton post, just a matter of facts to dispute a claim.

I recently heard Wills or Andy Freed say that B.J. Upton was not a patient hitter. They said he's not the prototypical leadoff hitter because he doesn't see a lot of pitchers.

It surprised me. Wills and Freed are generally very good, and this seemed like a ridiculous statement. Later on I heard someone refer to BJ as a free swinger.

Upton's perception has changed since last year. He's not the hitter who waits too long and looks for the perfect pitch. He's now seen as an impatient free swinger.

BJ Upton loves the first pitch, he always has. In 2007 Upton has swung at the first pitch 35%, then 34% in 2008, and 34% in 2009. That's pretty consistent and hasn't changed. Could that be what makes him a free swinger?

Lets look at all MLB players with 300 PAs this year. (Using fangraphs, BB-ref, and ESPN for info).

First, let's see if Upton is a free swinger by looking at total swings.

Upton swings at 41.2% of all pitches thrown. That puts him in the top 25% in baseball for lowest swing percentage (37th/159).

So now we know he doesn't swing a lot. Maybe he chases ball out of the strike zone.

Upton swings at a ball out of the zone 17.5% of the time. That puts him in the top 7% in baseball (11th/159)

Alright, Upton doesn't swing a lot and doesn't chase out of the zone. Maybe he's just swinging at everything in the zone.

Upton swings at a ball in the zone 63% of the time. That puts him in the top 33% in baseball (or bottom, depending if you think this is good or bad).

Well, maybe Upton just makes weak contact and doesn't see a lot of pitches.

Upton has seen an average of 4.10 pitches per place appearance this year. That's in the top 18% of baseball (29th/159).

How about the last month?

He's averaged 4.17 pitches in July. That makes him in the top 21% in baseball for the month (46th/216)

So what does it mean? Basically Upton is the furthest thing from a free swinger.

Upton has not been a good offensive player this year. His numbers are down across the board. With that comes some misconceptions about what is wrong. From the numbers, the one thing BJ is doing poorly is missing pitches. His contact % of balls in the strike zone is 81.5%, that's in the bottom 8% of all of baseball. It's pretty poor. There are some good players right there with him (his brother, Matt Kemp, Jason Bay, Longoria, Pena, Dunn), but they rely a lot more on power than BJ does.

BJ isn't a free swinger, he's just not making contact.

Well at least people are claiming to be fans now...

tallyray — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:04:35 -0000

Well at least people are claiming to be fans now...

Didn't see this linked before.

Interesting results with the Rays jumping from 28th to 17th in just one year. That's a pretty sizable leap and a great sign.

However, take a glance at the Rockies and see how quickly things change.

Zobrist doing his HoJo impersonation...

tallyray — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:59:16 -0000

The recent Zobrist 30/30 article almost gave me an opportunity to throw out the name "Howard Johnson". Just saying how HoJo was a three time 30/30 guy would give me a nice flashback to my childhood.

Prior to commenting I decided to give Howard Johnson's stats a quick look and was somewhat surprised to see how his first 30/30 came about...

Howard Johnson entered the 1987 season as a former first rounder who never showed consistent numbers in the majors. He never hit more than 12 HRs in a season (though he hit 10 in 256 PAs in 1986) and never stole more 10 bases. He was never a full time player though he looked like he was given the opportunity twice.

HoJo finally came into his own in 1987. As a 26 year-old he hit .265/.364/.504 with 36 HRs and 32 SB. He finished 10th in MVP voting.

His numbers declined a bit in 1988, spiked to career bests in 1989, fell dramatically in 1990, then he bounced back for his final 30/30 in 1991.

Should we expect a Johnson like career for Zobrist?

Probably not, but comparisons are fun.

Tango/Chass on Super 2's

tallyray — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:43:38 -0000

Tango/Chass on Super 2's

I'll go ahead and link the Tango blog about it since it has very good commentary.

This pertains quite a bit to the Rays. I agree with most of the comments. This is something that the teams have the right to do. It would be a bad business decision to waste a year for only two months.

Longoria/Pena > Ruth/Gehrig

tallyray — Sun, 10 May 2009 01:02:59 -0000

Longoria/Pena > Ruth/Gehrig

Imagine if BJ starts to get on base a bit more.

Value vs True-Talent

tallyray — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 00:15:31 -0000

Value vs True-Talent

The section of the article titled "Value versus True-Talent Level" seems applicable to a lot of recent discussion.

Carlos Pena since the injury..

tallyray — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 01:49:37 -0000

Carlos Pena since the injury..

Someone in the GDT was talking about how his numbers compared to other MVP candidates since he came back from injury. Above is the link to the stats since. I'd say Pena is top-5 in the AL behind:

1. Carlos Quentin
2. Kevin Youkilis
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Grady Sizemore

Aubrey and Mora are just rotting in Baltimore. Dye is crushing the ball but is lost behind Quentin.

I don't think Pena finishes top-10, but he's been pretty great since coming back.

Stark: Blake to Dodgers very close

tallyray — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:04:17 -0000

Jason Stark on ESPN is reporting that Blake to the Dodgers for Carlos Santana and Jon Meloan is almost a done deal.

If it happens, which seems like it will, it makes a Rays trade less likely. The highly rumored names are now gone and it seems that any trade that does happen will come from no where. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but does eliminate a lot of the past rumors.

FWIW, Sickles ranked Meloan as the Dodgers #5 and a B prospect, Santana wasn't ranked but looks to be having a good year.

Link