SB Nation User Blog: talonk

FBS Realignment ?

talonk — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:20:47 -0000

With the announcement that the Big 10/11 will be looking to expand to 12 teams, just how will this affect the rest of the FBS landscape?

The easiest solution for all of FBS is if Notre Dame joins. This would not affect any currrent football situations, but would force the Big East to look for a 16th member for basketball becasue I can't see the Big 10 agreeing to Notre Dame joining for football only.

Other likely scenarios:

1. Missouri - With Mizzou seceding from the Big 12, I suspect that Arkansas jumps at the chance to re-establish a connection with the Texas schools. This would force the SEC to siphon another team from somewhere, and that most likely would be the ACC. If I had to guess, it might be Miami, but I don't think it would be any of the original 10 ACC schools. This would in turn force the ACC to raid the Big East, nabbing South Florida or Louisville. Or the SEC could bypass the ACC and try and scoop up West Virginia. This would leave the Big East scrambling to invite an 8th team. Hilariously, it might be forced to take Temple back. (Does anyone know if the Big East drops to 7 teams, would they lose their BCS distinction? - This would benefit the MWC greatly)

2. Pitt - The second most likely team overall, it would cause less movement because the Big 12, SEC, and ACC would be left intact. But the Big East would need to pull in an 8th team. Or would they go for 2-3 teams to make a 9 or 10 team conference?

3. Nebraska, Iowa St - same as Missouri.

4. Other Big East teams such as Rutgers, Syracuse - same as Pitt.

5. Teams that would not qualify academically: West Virginia, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Louisville.

Other options if Missouri move into the Big 10, would be for the Big 12 to pull in TCU, Houston or even Utah.

If one thing happens out of this, is that I hope the MAC drops back down to 12 teams or less, the Big East expands to at least 9 teams. I could even see C-USA getting cannabilized somewhat with East Carolina being gobbled up.

Thoughts?

Duron Carter, Rob Rose Ineligible for Rose Bowl

talonk — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:19:22 -0000

Duron Carter, Rob Rose Ineligible for Rose Bowl

Looks like the grades have been turned in and these two missed the cut and will not get a chance to play vs Oregon.

If I was King/Altenate Solution Playoffs for 2009 season

talonk — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:26:25 -0000

Now that the regular season has completed (sans Army/Navy), here is what my proposal would have looked like had my playoffs been instituted.

First, my goal would have been to shorten the season by one week (either start one week earlier, or eliminate one fo the two byes teams currently employ) and complete all games (including league championship games) by Saturday November 28th. Assuming all results would not hvae changed, and assuming Navy beat Army, and using the BCS standings to seed the teams, here is how the field would have looked:

Sat Dec 5:
16 Troy 9-3 at 1 Alabama 13-0
15 East Carolina 9-4 at 2 Texas 13-0
14 Central Michigan 11-2 at 3 Cincinnati 12-0
13 Penn St 10-2 at 4 TCU 12-0
12 LSU 9-3 at 5 Florida 12-1
11 VA Tech 9-3 at 6 Boise St 13-0
10 Iowa 10-2 at 7 Oregon 10-2
9 GA Tech 11-2 at 8 Ohio St 10-2

All teams losing in first round, are still eligible for non-BCS bowl games.

Assuming no upsets*, Round 2 becomes:
Sat Dec 20
8 Ohio St 11-2 at 1 Alabama 14-0
7 Oregon 11-2 at 2 Texas 14-0
6 Boise St 14-0 at 3 Cincinnati 13-0
5 Florida 13-1 at 4 TCU 13-0

* The lowest seeded team would always play the highest seeded team in each round.

All teams in Round 2 end up in the BCS bowls:

Now assume Bama, Texas, Cincinnati and TCU win:

BCS bowls (semifinals) look like this:

Sugar: 1 Alabama 15-0 vs 4 TCU 14-0
Fiesta: 2 Texas 15-0 vs 3 Cincinnati 14-0

Rose: Ohio St vs Oregon

Orange: Florida vs Boise St

Winner of Sugar meets winner of Fiesta in Title game following week.

For the non-BCS bowl games, here is how they probably would look like with Iowa and GA Tech sliding schools down the scale:

GMAC: Troy 9-3 vs Central Michigan 11-2 (ACC #9 replacement vs MAC #1)

Alamo: Wisconsin 9-3 vs Texas Tech 8-4 (Big 10 #5 vs Big 12 #4)

Liberty: East Carolina 9-4 vs Arkansas 7-5 (CUSA #1 vs SEC #6/7)

Cotton: Okla St 9-3 vs Ole Miss 8-4 (Big12 #2 vs SEC #3/4 [West champ])

PapaJohns: UConn 7-5 vs South Carolina 7-5 (Big East #4 vs SEC #9)

International: South Florida 7-5 vs Northern Illinois 7-5 (BigEast #5 vs MAC #3)

Gator: Florida St 6-6 vs VA Tech 9-3 (ACC #3 vs Big East #2/Notre Dame)

Capitol One: LSU 9-3 vs Penn St 10-2 (SEC #2 vs Big 10 #2)

Outback: Iowa 10-3 vs Auburn 7-5 (Big 10 #3 vs SEC #3/4 [East champ])

Chick-Fil-A: Tennessee 7-5 vs GA Tech 11-3 (SEC #5 vs ACC #2)

Insight: Iowa St 6-6 vs Mich St 6-6 (Big 12 #6 vs Big 10 #6)

Texas: Missouri 8-4 vs Navy 9-4 (Big 12 #8 vs CUSA/Navy)

Sun: Stanford 8-4 vs Oklahoma 7-5 (Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12 #5)

Armed Forces: Air Force 7-5 vs Houston 10-3 (MWC #3 vs CUSA #3)

Holiday: Arizona 8-4 vs Nebraska 9-4 (Pac 10 #2 vs Big 12 #3)

Humanitarian: Idaho 7-5 vs Bowling Green 7-5 (WAC #1 vs MWC #5 replacement)

Champ Sports: West Virginia 9-3 vs Northwestern 8-4 (ACC #4 vs Big 10 #4)

Eaglebank: Boston College 8-4 vs Temple 9-3 (ACC #8 vs Army/CUSA #6 replacement)

Independence: Georgia 7-5 vs Texas A&M 6-6 (SEC #8 vs Big12 #7)

Music City: Miami FL 9-3 vs Kentucky 7-5 (ACC #5 vs SEC #6/7)

Emerald: USC 8-4 vs North Carolina 8-4 (Pac 10 #4 vs ACC #7)

Meinecke: Pitt 9-3 vs Clemson 8-5 (Big East #3 vs ACC #6)

Pizza: Ohio U 9-4 vs Minnesota 6-6 (MAC #2 vs Big 10 #7)

Hawaii: Nevada 8-4 vs SMU 7-5 (WAC #2 vs CUSA #2)

Poinsettia: Utah 9-3 vs California 8-4 (MWC #2 vs Pac 10 #6 replacement)

Las Vegas: BYU 10-2 vs Oregon St 8-4 (MWC #1 vs Pac 10 #5)

New Orleans: Southern Miss 7-5 vs Middle Tenn St 9-3 (CUSA #4 vs Sun Belt #1)

St. Petersburg: Rutgers 8-4 vs UCF 8-4 (Big East #6 vs CUSA #5)

New Mexico: Fresno St 8-4 vs Wyoming 6-6 (WAC #3 vs MWC #4)

Marshall and UCLA, both 6-6 teams, would get removed from a bowl game.

Week 14 and 15 Predictions

talonk — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:11:34 -0000

As there are fewer gimmie games this week, let's see if I can still keep up my 75% clip. Am also picking the Army-Navy game a week earlier.

ACC

Wins: GA Tech

Losses: Clemson

Big12

Wins: Texas

Losses: Nebraska

Big East

Wins: UConn, West VA, Cincinnati

Losses: South Fla, Rutgers, Pitt

Independents

Wins: Navy

Losses: Army

Big10

Wins: Wisconsin, Illinois

Pac10

Wins: Oregon, USC, Cal

Losses: Ore St, Arizona, Washington

SEC

Wins: Alabama,

Losses: Florida

C-USA

Wins: Houston

Losses: East Carolina

MAC

Wins: Ohio U

Losses: Cent Mich

Sun Belt

Wins: Ark St, FIU

Losses: West Kentucky, FAU

WAC

Wins: LA Tech, Boise St

Losses: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, New Mexico St

Regular Season Done: BC, Wake Forest, NC, Virginia, Duke, Fla St, Maryland, NC St, VA Tech, Miami FL, Kansas, Kansas St, Colorado, Iowa St, Oklahoma, Tex Tech, Okla St, Tex A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Penn St, Ohio St, Mich St, Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana, Stanford, AZ St, UCLA, Wash St, South Carolina, Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, Miss St, Georgia, South Miss, Marshall, UCF, Tulsa, Rice, SMU, Memphis, UAB, UTEP, Tulane, Buffalo, Temple, Kent St, Ball St, Bowling Green, Akron, Miami OH, West Mich, Nor Illinois, East Mich, Toledo, Utah, Air Force, UNLV, Wyoming, BYU, Colo St, New Mexico, SDSU, TCU, Troy, LA-Lafayette, Mid Tenn St, LA-Monroe, Nor Texas, Nevada, Utah St, Idaho

Week 13 Predictions

talonk — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 23:01:13 -0000

With the Big10 basically done, here are this week's selections.

ACC

Wins: Miami FL, GA Tech, BC, Duke, NC, VA Tech, Clemson

Losses: Fla St, Maryland, Wake Forest, NC St, Virginia

Big12

Wins: Texas, Nebraska, Okla St, Tex Tech, Missouri

Losses: Tex A&M, Colorado, Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas

Bye: Kansas St, Iowa St

Big East

Wins: Rutgers, Pitt, Cincinnati, UConn

Losses: South Fla, Louisville, West VA, Syracuse

Independents

Wins: Navy

Losses: Notre Dame

Bye: Army

Big10

Wins:

Losses: Illinois,

Bye: Penn St, Ohio St, Mich St, Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana

Pac10

Wins: Stanford, Arizona, Washington, USC

Losses: AZ St, Wash St, UCLA

Bye: Oregon, Ore St, Cal

SEC

Wins: Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU

Losses: Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn, Kentucky, Miss St, Arkansas

Bye: Vandy

C-USA

Wins: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, UAB, SMU, Marshall

Losses: Memphis, Rice, South Miss, UCF, Tulane, UTEP

MAC

Wins: West Mich, Bowling Green, Akron, Cent Mich, Ohio U, Kent St

Losses: Ball St, Toledo, East Mich, Nor Illinois, Temple, Buffalo

Bye: Miami OH

MWC

Wins: Wyoming, TCU, Utah, UNLV

Losses: Colo St, New Mexico, BYU, SDSU

Bye: Air Force

Sun Belt

Wins: Ark St, LA-Monroe, FAU, Troy

Losses: Nor Texas, Mid Tenn St, West Kentucky, LA-Lafayette

Bye: FIU

WAC

Wins: Boise St, Idaho, San Jose St

Losses: Hawaii, Nevada, Utah St, New Mexico St

Bye: Fresno St, LA Tech

Week 12 Predictions

talonk — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 08:05:21 -0000

Posting these a bit early. No games til Wednesday and finally no Sunday game.

Anyways, here they are:

ACC

Wins: Fla St, BC, Clemson, VA Tech, Miami FL

Losses: Maryland, NC, Virginia, NC St, Duke

Bye: Wake Forest, GA Tech

Big12

Wins: Okla St, Iowa St, Nebraska, Texas, Tex Tech, Tex A&M

Losses: Colorado, Missouri, Kansas St, Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor

Big East

Wins: South Fla, Rutgers

Losses: Louisville, Syracuse, UConn

Bye: Pitt, West VA, Cincinnati

Independents

Wins: Notre Dame, Army

Bye: Navy

Big10

Wins: Wisconsin, Purdue, Penn St, Ohio St, Iowa

Losses: Northwestern, Indiana, Mich St, Michigan, Minnesota

Bye: Illinois

Pac10

Wins: Oregon, Stanford, AZ St, Ore St

Losses: Arizona, Cal, UCLA, Wash St

Bye: USC, Washington

SEC

Wins: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee

Losses: Miss St, Kentucky, LSU, Vandy

Bye: South Carolina, Auburn

C-USA

Wins: Houston, UCF, UAB, UTEP, SMU, South Miss

Losses: Memphis, Tulane, East Carolina, Rice, Marshall, Tulsa

MAC

Wins: Buffalo, Cent Mich, Bowling Green, Toledo, Temple, Nor Illinois

Losses: Miami OH, Ball St, Akron, East Mich, Kent St, Ohio U

Bye: West Mich

MWC

Wins: TCU, Air Force, Utah, Colo St

Losses: Wyoming, BYU, SDSU, New Mexico

Bye: UNLV

Sun Belt

Wins: Mid Tenn St, Troy, LA-Monroe

Losses: Nor Texas, FIU, Ark St, FAU, LA-Lafayette

Bye: West Kentucky

WAC

Wins: Boise St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada

Losses: Utah St, LA Tech, San Jose St, New Mexico St

Bye: Idaho

Week 11 Predictions

talonk — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:59:30 -0000

Another week done, another week of picks ... Thankfully only a few more weeks of gumming up WWAHT ;)

ACC

Wins: VA Tech, GA Tech, Clemson, Miami FL, Fla St, BC

Losses: Maryland, Duke, NC St, NC, Wake Forest, Virginia

Big12

Wins: Iowa St, Okla St, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas St

Losses: Colorado, Tex Tech, Tex A&M, Baylor, Kansas, Missouri

Big East

Wins: Rutgers, Cincinnati, Pitt, Syracuse

Losses: South Fla, West VA, Louisville

Bye: UConn

Independents

Wins: Army, Navy

Losses: Notre Dame

Big10

Wins: Minnesota, Ohio St, Penn St, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Mich St,

Losses: Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue

Pac10

Wins: Arizona, USC, Ore St, UCLA, Oregon

Losses: Cal, Stanford, Washington, Wash St, AZ St

SEC

Wins: Arkansas, Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, LSU

Losses: Georgia, Ole Miss, Vandy, Miss St, South Carolina

C-USA

Wins: Houston, UAB, SMU, Tulane, Marshall, East Carolina

Losses: UCF, Memphis, UTEP, Rice, South Miss, Tulsa

MAC

Wins: Ohio U, Cent Mich, Bowling Green, Nor Illinois, Temple, West Mich

Losses: Buffalo, Toledo, Miami OH, Ball St, Akron, East Mich

Bye: Kent St

MWC

Wins: BYU, Air Force, TCU, Wyoming

Losses: New Mexico, UNLV, Utah, SDSU

Bye: Colo St

Sun Belt

Wins: LA-Monroe, LA-Lafayette, FAU, FIU

Losses: Troy, West Kentucky, Mid Tenn St, Ark St, Nor Texas

WAC

Wins: Boise St, Nevada, Utah St, Hawaii

Losses: LA Tech, Idaho, San Jose St, Fresno St, New Mexico St

Bowl Guesstimates Post Week 9

talonk — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:19:33 -0000

Doubtful I get half of these right, but oh well here goes my best guess as to where everyone plays this postseason.

Only 7 win team without a bowl would be Kent St at 7-5. The replacements are my best guesses for those conferences that cannot fill all their spots. I have no idea the pecking order of how those bowls would determine who goes where.

National Championship Game: Alabama 13-0 vs Texas 13-0 (BCS #1 vs BCS #2)

Orange Bowl: GA Tech 12-1 vs Cincinnati 12-0 (ACC #1 vs BCS [pick-Big East champ])

Fiesta Bowl: Penn St 11-1 vs USC 10-2 (Big 12 champ replacement vs at-large #1)

Sugar Bowl: Florida 12-1 vs TCU 12-0 (SEC champ replacement vs at-large #2)

Rose Bowl: Iowa 11-1 vs Oregon 11-1 (Big10 #1 vs Pac10 #1)

GMAC: Mid Tenn 8-4 St vs Central Michigan 11-2 (ACC #9 replacement vs MAC #1)

International: Rutgers 9-3 vs Ohio U 8-4 (BigEast #5 vs MAC #3)

Liberty: Houston 12-1 vs Ole Miss 7-5 (CUSA #1 vs SEC #6/7)

Cotton: Nebraska 8-5 vs Auburn 8-4 (Big12 #2 vs SEC #3/4 [West champ])

Alamo: Mich St 6-6 vs Okla St 9-3 (Big 10 #5 vs Big 12 #4)

PapaJohns: West Virginia 9-3 vs Miss St 6-6 (Big East #4 vs SEC #9)

Gator: Miami FL 10-2 vs Notre Dame 9-3 (ACC #3 vs Big East #2/Notre Dame)

Capitol One: LSU 10-2 vs Wisconsin 10-2 (SEC #2 vs Big 10 #2)

Outback: Ohio St 9-3 vs South Carolina 7-5 (Big 10 #3 vs SEC #3/4 [East champ])

Chick-Fil-A: Tennessee 7-5 vs Clemson 9-4 (SEC #5 vs ACC #2)

Insight: Iowa St 7-5 vs Northwestern 6-6 (Big 12 #6 vs Big 10 #6)

Sun: California 8-4 vs Kansas St 7-5 (Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12 #5)

Armed Forces: Air Force 7-5 vs Marshall 8-4 (MWC #3 vs CUSA #3)

Holiday: Oergon St 8-4 vs Oklahoma 9-3 (Pac 10 #2 vs Big 12 #3)

Texas: Texas A&M 7-5 vs Navy 9-4 (Big 12 #8 vs CUSA/Navy)

Humanitarian: Boise St 13-0 vs Northern Illinois 7-5 (WAC #1 vs MWC #5 replacement)

Sports: VA Tech 9-3 vs Minnesota 7-5 (ACC #4 vs Big 10 #4)

Eaglebank: LA-Monroe 8-4 vs SMU 7-5 (ACC #8 vs Army/CUSA #6)
Independence: Kentucky 6-6 vs Texas Tech 7-5 (SEC #8 vs Big12 #7)

Music City: Boston College 9-3 vs Georgia 6-6 (ACC #5 vs SEC #6/7)

Emerald: Arizona 8-4 vs Florida St 6-6 (Pac 10 #4 vs ACC #7)

Meinecke: Pitt 9-3 vs North Carolina 7-5 (Big East #3 vs ACC #6)

Pizza: Temple 9-4 vs Michigan 6-6 (MAC #2 vs Big 10 #7)

Hawaii: Idaho 9-3 vs East Carolina 7-6 (WAC #2 vs CUSA #2)

Poinsettia: Utah 9-3 vs Bowling Green 7-5 (MWC #2 vs Pac 10 #6 replacement)

Las Vegas: BYU 10-2 vs Stanford 6-6 (MWC #1 vs Pac 10 #5)

New Orleans: Southern Miss 7-5 vs Troy 8-4 (CUSA #4 vs Sun Belt #1)

St. Petersburg: South Florida 8-4 vs UCF 7-5 (Big East #6 vs CUSA #5)

New Mexico: Nevada 8-4 vs San Diego St 6-6 (WAC #3 vs MWC #4)

Had to slide Big East teams down one notch when Gator takes Notre Dame.

Pettrey has surgery on MCL

talonk — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:53:20 -0000

Pettrey has surgery on MCL

Looks like Barclay is the guy for the next 3 big games. Buchanan is also a possibility.

Pettrey may be back for the bowl game.

Week 10 Predictions

talonk — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:07:49 -0000

And onto another week of picks. More midweek games starting this week and through the end of the season. Also, seems to be Sunday games the next few weeks. That really makes my "rankings" a bit more difficult, so I may have to wait until Sun nite to crank those numbers instead.

ACC

Wins: VA Tech, GA Tech, NC St, Clemson, Miami FL, NC

Losses: Wake Forest, Maryland, Fla St, Virginia, Duke

Bye: BC

Big12

Wins: Tex A&M, Okla St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas

Losses: Colorado, Iowa St, Baylor, Nebraska, Kansas St

Bye: Tex Tech

Big East

Wins: Cincinnati, Pitt, West VA

Losses: UConn, Syracuse, Louisville

Bye: Rutgers, South Fla

Independents

Wins: Notre Dame

Losses: Navy, Army

Big10

Wins: Wisconsin, Mich St, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Penn St

Losses: Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio St

Pac10

Wins: Washington, Arizona, Oregon, Cal, USC

Losses: UCLA, Wash St, Stanford, Ore St, AZ St

SEC

Wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Miss St

Losses: LSU, South Carolina, Vandy

Bye: Ole Miss

C-USA

Wins: UAB, SMU, UTEP, Houston

Losses: East Carolina, UCF, Memphis, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa

Bye: South Miss, Marshall

MAC

Wins: Bowling Green, Temple, Nor Illinois, Kent St

Losses: West Mich, Buffalo, Miami OH, East Mich, Akron

Bye: Ball St, Ohio U, Cent Mich, Toledo

MWC

Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Utah, UNLV

Losses: Wyoming, SDSU, New Mexico, Colo St

Sun Belt

Wins: LA-Monroe, Mid Tenn St, Troy, LA-Lafayette

Losses: FAU, Nor Texas, FIU, West Kentucky, Ark St

WAC

Wins: Boise St, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada

Losses: LA Tech, Utah St, Fresno St, San Jose St

Bye: New Mexico St