SB Nation User Blog: talonk

Just how important is the draft?

talonk — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 06:48:14 -0000

So with all the discussion about the draft this year, I wanted to do some research as to just how important the draft was. Now, I do not have an agenda here. No searching to see which GM (Shapiro, et al) has done poorly or great, although I will provide team by team numbers for comparison’s sake. This was more of a numbers crunch than anything else.

In order to get some decent sample sizes, I reviewed all of the drafts from 1988 to 1997 for every team. This is a full 10 year window. I also went back that far to allow for all the players drafted to have had a chance at making the majors. There are always late bloomers, etc. This allowed all the players from 1997 a full 10 years to reach the majors. I also did not use any data from 2008 at all. So a few players’ career numbers will change since 2008 is complete (but I am not going to revise at this late date), but it shouldn’t change much of the overall data tabulated here.

First, a couple of disclaimers. I pulled all of the draft data from the Baseball Cube. I used Baseball Cube because it actually has the highest level each player achieved: Majors, AAA, AA, A+, A, A-, and Rookie. Now I know all of the data on that site is not 100% accurate. Some players that were incorrectly identified as making the majors, and those have been corrected using Baseball Reference data. But over a 10 year span, a few incorrect numbers here and there on the minor league levels should not really affect the overall results.

Also, the draft is slightly done differently now. The draft is now capped at 50 rounds. The span I reviewed did have some teams "draft" 100 players in one year. But the majority of the teams did only draft until around 50 during those years.

Years 1988-1991 there were 26 drafting teams. Years 1992-1995 there were 28 teams (Colorado and Florida joined in). And in Years 1996-1997 there were 30 teams (Tampa Bay and Arizona joined to make the current configuration).

Now off we go.

First we will cover the total number of picks and how many actually signed.

Draft 1 file 1 (via kardiakkidz)

Note: 1992 was the only year that had 50 rounds. I suspect this was to "test" for the future.

Since we really don’t care about the total draft picks (we will look into this on a team by team basis though), only who signed, we will proceed with the signed number for the following numbers.

Draft 1 file 2 (via kardiakkidz)

And by percentages:

Draft 1 file 3 (via kardiakkidz)

So over a 10 year period, under today’s drafting rules, every team will have 500 picks. Let’s assume that they us all of the draft picks for this scenario. Based on the average percentages, a team will sign approximately 294 of those 500 players. Of those 294 players, 46 will make the show, 38 will reach AAA, 38 will reach AA, 57 will reach A+, 40 will reach A, 31 will reach A-, and 43 will not even get out of rookie league. Dividing each of those by 10, and the "expected" major leaguers per draft per team is 5.

Of course, making the majors is a big deal, but it does not tell the whole story. But we will get into that a little later in the dissertation.

I could bore you with round by round data, but I think it would be better to summarize based on where the player was drafted. I separated as follows: Round 1, Rounds 2-5, Rounds 6-15, Rounds 16-25, Rounds 26-50, Rounds 51-75, and Rounds 76+:

Draft 1 file 4 (via kardiakkidz)

Percentage of signed players:

Draft 1 file 5 (via kardiakkidz)

A few notes about this set of data. Supplemental rounds were included in that round (i.e. Supplemental between 1st and 2nd count as 1st round picks, and etc.). Also, a few of these drafts had supplemental picks all the way into the fifth round.

As for the data itself, nothing really too shocking, the higher one is drafted, the more likely they are to sign. Also, the higher one was drafted, the more likely they are to make the majors. But look at how steep the fall is from Round 1 to Rounds 2-5, 68% to 37%. In fact, going down each band, the likelihood of making the majors drops by about 50%. If anyone is interested, I do have each round’s data, just let me know.

So now, for the data most have waited patiently for. The team by team data (just how did the Tribe do?):

Draft 1 file 6 (via kardiakkidz)

Nothing too exciting here, but a few interesting notes: Houston, Dodgers and Yankees all drafted over 700 (lots of 50+ draftees), but they also were towards the bottom on percentages signed (which is to be expected). St. Louis had the highest conversion rate by almost 4%. Mean tends to hold around at 60%.

Draft 1 file 7 (via kardiakkidz)

Top five to get to the show: Boston, Montreal, Oakland, Baltimore, and Minnesota. As for the lower levels, those numbers could be interpreted in many, many ways. But I am certain each organization has certain trends they want to follow which would explain some of the wild fluctuations between Rookie leagues and some of the A ball levels.

Also, for Arizona and Tampa Bay, there seemed to be a shared roster between them and no distinction was made as if that was an A or A+ squad. More than likely, that number should be split in half.

To be continued ….

Week 10 Power Rankings

talonk — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 06:03:11 -0000

Been trying to tweak my formula for ranking teams based on strength of schedule, road games, etc.

Basically took my college ranking system and tweaked it for the pro game. This is what I came up with (note this is prior to the NE-NYJ game last night.

Tennessee 9.135
NY Giants 8.042
Carolina 7.341
Pittsburgh 6.440
Tampa Bay 6.439
Arizon 6.405
Baltimore 6.402
Washington 6.301
Atlanta 6.232
New England 6.117
NY Jets 6.048
Indianapolis 5.830
Chicago 5.518
Dallas 5.506
Miami 5.348
Philadelphia 5.443
Minnesota 5.434
Buffalo 5.348
Denver 5.192
Green Bay 4.625
San Diego 4.539
Jacksonville 4.436
New Orleans 4.430
Cleveland 3.574
Houston 3.425
St Louis 2.755
Oakland 2.565
Seattle 2.442
San Francisco 2.288
Kansas City 1.993
Cincinnati 1.920
Detroit 0.481

Basically teams get + for beating good teams, - for beating bad teams and credit for road games. Each division is also ranked, giving a factor to the +/- numbers as well. From this, KC and Indy have had the toughest schedules so far.

Free Agency Possibilities

talonk — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 16:55:12 -0000

Yes, yes .. I know the season just started but I saw this article on ESPN detailing the FAs for 2009 and 2010 seasons

Looks like a lot of possibilities out there in both seasons. According to HoopsHype, here are the $$ we have aligned for those years:

2009 - $71.1M for 10 players. But that includes Z's $11.5M, Andy's $6.2M player options and Jawad Williams. I fully expect Andy to opt out for his big payday. Question is, with his marked improvement this year, do we attempt to sign him? He really fills a role on this team, but if he wants $12M or more per year, is he really worth it?

But let's assume Andy is gone, we really need another inside presence. I think Z will stick for next season as long as he's healthy. But with Andy gone, we'll need a big body down low with Ben and JJ. That also leaves us only 8 players. We'll need to sign 7 more (that includes the 2-3 draft picks).

In 2010 is where it gets tricky. We have $35M allottted for 5 guys (LeBron, Mo, Delonte, Boobie and JJ). Of course LeBron is going to opt out, so that drops it to $18M for 4 guys, plus whoever we sign this offseason of course (or in-season trades)

Out of the guys in the ESPN article, of course I'd love Bosh, but Toronto would be silly not to offer him the same max deal we're gonna give LeBron. Other big guys for 2009 could be Powe (Restricted), Rasheed (yikes!), Artest, Odom, Marion, Joe Smith (probably going to retire), Udoka, Korver, Okur, Boozer (not again).

I don't think Ferry would make a huge splash this offseason but I'd be interested in an Okur, Udoka type to take Z's spot eventually.

As for 2010, names include (not just big guys), Joe Johnson, Pierce, Nowitski, Amir Johnson, Scola (Restricted), McGrady, Yao, Camby, Wade, Haslem, Jefferson, Redd, Chandler, Amare, Aldridge (Restricted), Ginobli, Oberto, Bosh. I'd expect most of those big names to get theose max contracts we'll be giving LeBron, but it is fun to dream.

This is why it soooo important Ferry drafy well these next two offseasons. Yes, we can sign a big name besides LeBron, but I just don't expect too many "superstars" leaving.

With Lee and Sizemore, Indians aren't far from contention

talonk — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 01:01:55 -0000

With Lee and Sizemore, Indians aren't far from contention

Another national writer makes his feelings known about the Tribe.

While I agree we aren't far off, a few of his comments were off-base.

"A year ago at this time, Indians general manager Mark Shapiro made a significant strategic error by deciding not to tinker with a club that fell one win short of reaching the World Series. The Indians' 2008 showing served as a reminder to every general manager that if you are just standing still with your club, others are shooting past you."

Well, name another team that lost 2/5 of their rotation and their 3/4 hitters all at about the same time and see if that team finishes at .500 a the end of the season

"Balls that should have been caught went through the gaps. Sizemore earned his Gold Glove the hard way, by having to range nearly from foul line to foul line. "

Gee, I didn't know Gutierrez just stood still in RF.

Anyways, thought I'd pass it along ....

Week 2 Guesses

talonk — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 04:12:05 -0000

Ok, didn't do so great in week one with my road picks. looking forward to improving on Week 2. Home teams in bold

New Orleans over Washington
NY Giants over St Louis
Indianapolis over Minnesota
Kansas City over Oakland
Jacksonville over Buffalo (I do not like this pick however)
Green Bay over Detroit
Cincinnati over Tennessee
Carolina over Chicago
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Seattle over San Francisco
NY Jets over New England (another uncomfortable pick)
San Diego over Denver
Arizona over Miami
Cleveland over Pittsburgh (homer pick mainly - if they play like last week .... its ugly)
Philly over Dallas (upset pick of the week)

Only 5 road picks this week .. hopefully I do better.

SBN gets a Cavs blog .... finally!

talonk — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 02:21:23 -0000

SBN gets a Cavs blog .... finally!

I figured Chris from Dawgs By Nature would have already posted this ..... but I did not see it yet.

Hopefully this will be the place the majority of the Cavs discussions we have had in the past will end up.

Am sure most non-Cavs fans could care less when chuck and others argued about LeBron, etc. Now we all have a new place to air our grievances.

Week 1 Predictions

talonk — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 19:11:00 -0000

Rational picks, not heartfelt .... (no spreads taken into account) - home teams in bold

Giants over Redskins
Jaguars over Titans
Steelers over Texans
Eagles over Rams
Saints over Bucs
Patriots over Chiefs (in a laugher)
Jets over Dolphins
Seahawks over Bills
Ravens over Bengals
Lions over Falcons
Cardinals over Niners
Cowboys over Browns (barely) and I really hope I am wrong about this one
Chargers over Panthers
Colts over Bears
Vikings over Packers
Broncos over Raiders (do the raiders always get the 2nd MNF opener?)

Man that is a lot of road picks, 8 ... probably will come back to haunt me.

Predictions - Week by Week

talonk — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 17:16:32 -0000

Big 10: OSU over Ohio U, Illinois over E Illinois, Michigan over Miami OH, Wisconsin over Marshall, Penn St over Ore St, Iowa over FIU, Indiana over Murray St, Mich St over E Michigan, Purdue over N Colorado, Northwesten over Duke - All home games

ACC: BC over GA Tech, Clemson over Citadel, Wake over Ole Miss, Fla St over Western Carolina, Maryland over Mid Tenn St, NC St over William & Mary, VA Tech over Furman, Virginia over Richmond - ACC makes a slight comeback this week, albeit against 5 FCS teams

Big12: Missouri over SE Missouri, Kansas over LA Tech, Colorado over Eastern Wash, Montana St over Kansas St, Nebraska over San Jose St, Oklahoma over Cinncinnati, Texas over UTEP, Tex Tech over Nevada, Tesax A&M over New Mexico, Okla St over Houston, Baylor over Northwestern St

BigEast: West Virginia over East Carolina (barely), UConn over Temple, South Fla over UCF, Louisville over Tenn Tech, Pitt over Buffalo

Pac10: Az St over Stanford, Oregon over Utah St, AZ over Toledo, Cal over Wash St

SEC: Georgia over Central Mich, Florida over Miami (will be closer than you think), Kentucky over Norfolk St, Vandy over South Carolina, LSU - Troy postponed, Auburn over Southern Miss, Arkansas over LA-Monroe, Miss St over SE LA, Alabama over Tulane

Conf USA: Memphis over Rice, SMU over Texas St - gonna be a beatdown weak for the Conf USA

Independents: Army over New Hampshire, Notre Dame over San Diego St, Western Kentucky losing to Eastern Kentucky

MAC: Bowling Green over Minnesota, Kent St over Iowa St, Ball St over Navy, West Mich over Northern Illinois

MWC: BYU over Washington, Air Force over Wyoming, TCU over Stephen F Austin, Utah over UNLV, Col St over Sacramento St

Sun Belt: FAU over UAB, Ark St over Texas Southern, North Texas over Tulsa

WAC: Hawaii over Weber St, Idaho over Idaho St, New Mex St-Nicholls St postponed

Unfortunately not too many upset picks in that group other than Bowling Green, Ball St, Kent St and Vandy. Other bolded games are the ones that "should" be more competetive.

Season Predictions

talonk — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:56:44 -0000

One guys crazy full season predictions

AFC East: New England 13-3, Buffalo 8-8, NY Jets 8-8, Miami 3-13

AFC North: Pittsburgh 9-7, Cleveland 9-7, Baltimore 8-8, Cincinnati 5-11

AFC South: Jacksonville 13-3, Indianapolis 12-4, Houston 9-7, Tennessee 4-12

AFC West: San Diego 12-4, Denver 9-7, Oakland 3-13, Kansas City 2-14

NFC East: Philadelphia 12-4, Dallas 10-6, NY Giants 8-8, Washington 5-11

NFC North: Minnesota 11-5, Green Bay 9-7, Chicago 5-11, Detroit 4-12

NFC South: Tampa Bay 12-4, New Orleans 12-4, Carolina 8-8, Atlanta 3-13

NFC West: Seattle 11-5, Arizona 10-6, St Louis 4-12, San Francisco 2-14

Based on those records, it would be 9-7 wild Card at SD and Indianapolis at AFC North winner (with all the 9-7 teams, it comes down to tiebreakers) in first round. I'll take SD and Colts to move on to face New England and Jacksonville

In the NFC, it would be TB/NO at Seattle and AZ/Dallas at Minnesota, with TB/NO and Minnesota moving on to face NO/TB and Philly.

I'll say Jacksonville over New Orleans

FBS results week by week

talonk — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 15:16:05 -0000

First off, this isn’t meant to rank conferences by overall strength. This is meant to rank just the quality of this weekends games.

First, the BCS conferences

1. Pac 10: 4-1 OOC, Wins at Virginia, vs Mich St, vs Idaho, 1 FCS team; loss vs Oklahoma St; plus 2 conference games Stanford W vs Ore St and Oregon W vs Washington; UCLA still to play Tennessee

Quality wins by USC and Cal, Okla St loss not all that bad.

2. SEC: 10-1, Wins at Clemson, at Louisville, vs NC St, vs Hawaii, at Miami OH, vs Memphis, vs LA-Monroe, 3 FCS teams (including Appy St); Loss at Louisiana Tech; Tennessee still to play at UCLA

Quality wins by Bama and Kentucky, Clemson, but the loss by Miss St hurts.

3. Big 10

7-3, Wins vs Syracuse, vs Akron, vs Northern Illinois, vs Western Kentucky and 3 FCS teams; losses at Missouri, at Cal, vs Utah

No real significant wins, but the 3 losses are all of quality,

4. Big 12: 10-2 Wins vs Illinois, at Wash St, vs Colorado St, vs Western Michigan, vs FIU, vs North Texas, vs FAU and 3 FCS teams; losses vs Arkansas St and vs Wake Forest

Quality win vs Illinois, Loss to Arkansas St stings.

5. ACC: 7-4 Wins at Kent State, at Baylor, 5 FCS teams, Losses vs USC, Bama, at South Carolina, and at East Carolina

Hurts to say it, but at least the losses are at least of quality, wins are all very weak though.

6. Big East: 4-3, Wins vs 4 FCS teams, losses vs Kentucky, vs Bowling Green and at Northwestern; Rutgers still plays Fresno St

If Rutgers wins vs Fresno St, they would move up to 5, but 4 wins only vs FCS and losses to Bowling Green and Northwestern were not pretty.

Non BCS conferences

1. MAC: 6-6, Wins at Pitt, UTEP, at Army, 3 FCS teams; Losses at Wisconsin, vs Boston College, at Nebraska, at Wyoming, Vanderbilt, at Minnesota

This has to do mainly with the overall strength of the opponents. Losses to Wisc, BC, Nebraska are of quality, and the Bowling Green win was excellent as well.

2. Conf USA: 5-2 OOC, Wins vs Virginia Tech, vs LA-Lafayette, 3 FCS teams; Losses at Ole Miss and at Buffalo; plus 2 conference games, Tulsa W at UAB and Rice W vs SMU

East Carolina was best non BCS win of the weekend, but loss to Buffalo hurts a bit.

3. WAC: 4-3, Wins vs Miss St, 3 FCS teams; Losses at Florida, at Arizona, at UNLV; plus Fresno St still to play at Rutgers. Fresno St win bumps this up to number 2.

Louisiana Tech win was nice, and the losses to Florida and Arizona are to be expected, but UNLV, bleah.

4. MWC: 4-2 OOC, Wins at Michigan, vs Ohio U, 2 FCS teams; Losses at Colorado and vs Cal Poly (FCS school!!!!!!); plus 1 conference game TCU W at New Mexico

The Utah win was very nice, but the loss to Cal Poly really hurts here.

5. Sun Belt: 1-5 OOC, Win at Texas A&M; Losses at Texas, at Auburn, at Kansas, at Kansas St, at Southern Miss; 1 conference game Troy W at Mid Tenn St

Only thing that saves them from finishing below Army, Navy, and Western Kentucky is the win by Arkansas St.

6. Independents: 1-2, 1 Win vs FCS team, losses at Indiana and vs Temple

Yuck, double yuck, nothing to see here at all.