Darren Ford was one of two players that was traded as part of the Ray Durham trade to the Brewers last year. He was originally a prep draftee with the Brewers in 2004. In 2006 and 2007, Ford showed the ability to make contact and put up impressive SB rates while mainting a BB % above 10 % in A ball. This combined with good defense in CF. The knocks on his A ball performances are that he Ked around 25 % of the time and he had a clearly unsustainable BABIP (.378 and .429) even considering his speed. In 2007 and 2008, Ford's BABIP and subsequently his .avg suffered from regression in his BABIP to slightly below league average (.292 , .326, and .302). His BB % actually improved slightly despite the promotion while keeping his K % the same, except in 155 PAs after the trade.

 In 2009, after a failed experiment with switch hitting in the first half resulting in a line .207/.341/.293, he abandoned it.  The rest of the way, Ford tore up the league ending the season with .300avg, .160 ISO, and maintaining a BB % of 11 with the a 25 % K rate. His .381 BABIP is unsustainable again, but even after regression, his line is still impressive when considering the walks. It should also be noted that despite playing in the CALI league, San Jose is definitely one of the toughest environments to hit in the league. On the stats side, what is more puzzling is his batted ball profile from Minor League Splits. In the months he was slumping, he put up GB % of 60 and a LD % of 20 which would suggest a higher than normal BABIP. However, in his second half hot streak, his LD % is under 10 for the last two months except for July when it was 20 %. His GB % goes almost even aggregate with his FB %, yet he put up BABIP .440, .380, and .433.

On the scouting side of things, from an article done by Wonderful Terrific Mounds on McMovey Chronicles( awesonme name btw), quotes an old BA chat saying that he has 90 speed on the 20-80 scale. Also from that fanpost are reports saying he has excellent range in CF but with an arm that is average. Apparently he was listed as best defensive outfielder for both the Giants and Brewers by BA in the past. Total zone rating for the minors has him as average to excellent for every significant sample.

Personally, I love these kinds of players that have a borderline prospect profile but can jump out of nowhere and suprise you like Nyjer Morgan and Dan Uggla. I can see him putting up numbers similar to Michael Bourne if he can survive the AA test. He might not hit .300, but if he can improve his contact skills a little, his speed will help him sustain a higher than normal BABIP to keep his average up. Next year he is going to be 24 likely entering AA. So what are the communities thoughts on him?

2 thing you see a lot of growth of in high school.

Seriously though, as the end of spring training nears I thought it would be interesting to see people's views on what prospects might breakout this year and which ones might see their value drop-off a notch. The reasons for nominating a player do not necessarily have to be justified by scouting or stats, just a gut instinct is fine for this. Also, it does not have to be top-prospects being mentioned here, as long as the player is a prospect than it should be of interest.

Here is a quick list of players I compiled off the top my head.

Breakout Year

Tyson Gillies- I think he really will bust out this year in A-ball and show growth along the lines of what Michael Saunders did, with more speed, defense, and plate discipline but less power. Based off reports of him being a good citizen and hard worker in the organisation.

Mario Martinez-One of the Mariners' less heralded international signings in the past years. I see him passing DeJesus and Norriega by having improved plate discipline and growth in power.

John Mayberry- If given plenty of playing time, can be a sleeper candidate for NL ROY in my opinion. I am believer in his power that still has room for more growth and ability to handle strike zone well.

Jose Tabata- I think this year he will step up offensively in terms of contact and plate discipline, power will not come this year though.

Mitch Maier- My gut tells me he is going to experience growth in power and has he makes better contact through a better approach at the plate. Combined with good defense, will be a valuable LF/CF/RF.

Balbino Fuenmayor- I see him really having a great year in full-season ball by further reducing his K % and increasing his power #s.

Dropoff

Greg Halman- I think he has been overrated quite a bit by hitting well in the Cal league and the having a hot streak for half a season at AA. He really has issues with making contact and pitch recognition that came out in his K/BB ration in the AFL and in the WBC(SSS caveat).

Ivan DeJesus- I think he will regress more offensively while more questions about his defensive ability arise.

Jhoulys Chacin- Wear on his arm from jump in IP from 2007-2008 and advanced placement in AAA will see him struggle in a hitter friendly Colorado Springs.

Jeff Samardzija- Will return to struggles in turning his great stuff into actual results. He has potential to succeed but he is not as advanced as his numbers showed last year.

Chris Carter- Is another guy with contact issues and Cal league inflation that will regress in value in his first encounter with AA. Like Halman he has great potential but has some way to go still.

I am a long time mariner fan suffering up here in Toronto with only a few games to go a year. I have had some great moments, such as watching Leone's first MLB hit, since I watched my first mariner game in 1995. As the series was coming up next week, I was wondering what the status of the starting rotation for the series is so that I can buy tickets. However, as I was browsing the site tonight I was greeted by injury news. Rotoworld is reporting a possible injury for Batista, good news for I saw more than enough of his mediocrity in Toronto. On the other hand, the injury bar says that Felix is probable with a thigh strain. I really really really want to see Felix pitch live, so any info on this injury would be appreciated. Is it a possibility the call someone up for the road trip, would love to see Feierabend pitch.