It's been a great week here in Indy, building up to a very high energy weekend. I live downtown, so am very close to the action, and ventured to the SB village first TUE and then again last nite. While the city has earned high marks so far, it is absolutely true we have completely lucked out with the weather - a year ago, when CHI got snowed in the area here got 12 inches of ice. If that happened now, it would be an unmitigated disaster

No doubt though, the city has also benefited from solid planning and a unique, truly urban setting for the week-long buildup for the game. A compact downtown, long touted as part of its appeal during the Combine has served as a great setting for the SB village.

This is my 3rd SB - Boys vs BUF '93 at the Rose Bowl where the only pregame buildup I experienced was when an elevator full of Bills cheerleaders at the LAX Marriott literally stopped a lobby full of men in their tracks. Did do South Beach a couple of years back when the Colts got there - wild scene on Ocean Blvd. But neither have been like this.

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I think the note on TR's 'best career season' on the FP put this in perspective for me.

The proverbial 'eye test' tells us the DAL Oline is middling to below average - our Sacks Surrendered total bears this out - Cowboys rank 14 in the league(higher ranking the better).

Conversely, DAL ranks in the Top 10 for sacks, somewhat belying the 'eyeball test' and conventional wisdom the Cowboys don't generate nearly enough pressure.

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I will reserve judgement on whether the absolutely enjoyable result of this past SUN is the sign of something positive or just a momentary respite in the slog of an up an down season.

But there are 3 early trends so far that bear highlighting, first because they are so dramatically superior to what we suffered through only a season ago and second, they look solid enough now to say with some confidence they can be maintained and actually(gasp)relied upon for continued success

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I've been drawn to a couple of quotes from this field as the FA tsunami is about to take place:

Economists studying the the bidding of offshore oil leases in 1970s thought winners bid too high.  

They coined the term ‘winner’s curse’ to describe this outcome: when bidders have imperfect information, all make errors in estimating the ‘true’ value, and so the highest bidder will necessarily be offering too much.

What better illustrator of 'imperfect info' than this derby about to take place. All the measurables and yet uncertainty about true value persists.

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The debates have raged hot and heavy, fast and furious. BPA vs. Need, OT vs. DE vs. CB. FA strategy, etc.

Everyone has an opinion while most have reams of data and lacking that - innuendo to support it.

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Inspired by OCC's Emulation Post this AM, I clicked through to an analysis of Colts drafts by poster JesusNinja13 on Stampede Blue. Applying a few simple metrics, he made quick work of assessing overall quality and answering a criticism if trend lines are either up or down for Bil Polian/Indy.

Taking this tact, I modified some criteria and set out to review the last 10 years of Dallas Cowboy drafting - going back into the 90's didn't seem that relevant and I couldn't stand the pain, anyway.

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I live in Indy, which recently enabled me to shake hands with Troy Aikman at a fine dining restaurant the weekend of the Cowboy-Colt game. My stepdaughter works at this restaurant and, in fact, called me when she confirmed Troy was in the building. This facility also has about 6 hotel rooms, one of them the penthouse which comprises of - a living room/dining room 2 bedrooms and a balcony with a hot tub looking over a busy downtown street. Shaq called it his favorite place to stay on the road, as they have 9' showers.

Jerry and Stephen Jones always stay there during the Combine. And park their ginormous Cowboy RV in front of the building all during the week it's going on.

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The Theory of Constraints states that achievement by an organization is limited by its most constraining process. Originally used for manufacturing, this has gained quite a following in my industry - Logistics and Supply Chain. Combined with 6 Sigma (elimination of defects) and Lean Principles (elimination of waste/redundancies) they form a powerful new approach to efficiency - that is managed aggressively, quantitatively and has made it up to the boardrooms of many a top company.

The result of the Theory of Constraints is that an organization must turn resources to its most constraining process and work to correct it and keep it corrected. Then move onto the next one. And so on.

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Much has been written about the 'change' in Dallas Cowboy Offensive philosophy since Jason Garrett's appointment to HC. The running game has been embraced, desired balance has been restored. Statistics cited, Run/Pass ratios quantified - all citing empirical evidence of a trend we can readily see. Call it, this seasons Blinding Flash of Obviousness(BFO for future ref).

This has lead to an outgrowth of a much more speculative conspiracy-theory - that Garrett deliberately sub-optimized playcalling to ensure his bosses demise and his own ascension. This subjectivity stands in  stark contrast to the detailed and thoughtful analysis that preceded it in this and many other circumstance. But the issue is legit, even if the speculation is, well fantastical - why the dramatic shift in tactics?

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There will be plenty of play by play recap, I just want to give a feel for the ebb and flow of a remarkably up and down game.

1st Impression: Tailgate. Noticed walking to and at the Blue Crew lot a respectable mix of Cowboy jerseys/fans - I'd say a solid 10-15%. And I've never noticed more than 5% in Indy, it's about a fanatic a home team city as I've come across, and largely without the obnoxiousness of our NFC East brethern.

The mood was anxious, no one here knows what to expect from this Colt team, although I could confidently say the same for DAL. There's a certain fatalism we're all familiar with as Cowboy fans, that the injuries have finally caught up with them. IN a broader context, there's a sense they may be seeing the tipping point as Indy slides form elite to just OK - just as in DAL at the millennium's end.

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Our daughter works at a fine-dining restaurant in downtown Indy frequented by sports stars/celebrities because of the large suites upstairs for private dining. She usually doesn't work weekend evenings, but did last night due to several  private functions.

Around 8 she texted me, 'Troy Aikman is here.' We live downtown as well, so in moments my wife and I are sitting at the bar in the main dining room. We're friendly with the owner and staff because we go there often, even before our daughter worked there, so they were all providing us updates on the progress of the meal - a party of 12 or so from the Fox broadcast crew.

We wound up catching Troy, Joe Buck and the group as they left.  Troy was very gracious and accommodating - taking pics with both my wife and I, chatting for a few minutes. That Pic is now proudly displayed on my Profile - probably the only thing that could replace St. Roger!. Doubt he'll take us up on our offer of dinner tonight, but a story for the ages for any die-hard Cowboy fanatic...

Since I don't have the expertise to combine both questions in the same FanPost, here's the follow-up question:

Purpose of this is clearly not just to collect the data, but place the discussion in a meaningful context - a championship QB on a non-championship team and along with it's contention in reverse. I'm hoping the context provides clarity over what has been until now a highly subjective discussion. Am under no illusion that this is also subjective, but it's a lot more meaningful in this manner

Clearly the intent is to provoke debate as well, so Fire Away

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Saw this posed as a comment in the DMN Blog yesterday and tried to get a response as a comment in a thread. With little feedback, believe this needs more visibility to get better response.

I feel the premise puts a very contentious, long simmering issue into stark relief - Tony Romo's perception as a championship-caliber QB. The device to do this is both clever and telling, allowing proponents and opponents a context for the evaluation. Nebulous designations, such as elite, are eliminated; impossible to prove concepts such as leadership, become irrelevant as they are implied in the response

Without further ado:

Anybody know what happens to the April draft with a lockout in March? Even this uncapped year had a framework within the CBA. How would you even sign rookies?

FanShot police - I know, so please edumacate me, there's no Link, Quote, Video, List or Chat I can reference. Just this question. You might think I was just typing words to fill the 75 word minimum and you'd probably be right. Or maybe not.

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A largely unqualified take on the yet-to-be determined role players and question marks headed into this season. Didn't include the TC fodder, this was plenty to work with:

Stock Up

Ball - in this case, the lack of a negative could be a positive

Barron - perhaps better than we thought at this point. Legit swing tackle candidate. At the very least - addition by subtraction

Brent - showing signs there's a spot for him

Butler - athleticism always been there, now the light has turned on

Free - just as advertised, ready for this level

Gordon - leader in the clubhouse for 4th CB

Gronkowski - versatility as TE, H Back elevates chances

Holley - is he really making a move for a roster spot? Pretty remarkable the conversation is even being held

McCray - keep seeing him making plays, worth watching more

Williams, B&J(stop) - proving to both be keepers

Young - better than advertised, but likely not good enough. May benefit from McQ's potential departure

Stock Down

Brewster - not hearing good things - apparent grad from Montrae Holland school of conditioning. This trend line continues, candidate for a visit by The Turk before camp end

Bright - taken out of C rotation, some potential for much needed Interior OL depth. but value as a 2 spot sub diminished(the Proctor conundrum)

Hodge - inability to get on field now looking like a trend. And not a good one

Hurd - nothing he's really done, more what he hasn't. Contract value is his biggest liability

McQuistan - looks like the end of his DC career looming

Octavian, Sharpe - the numbers at a very deep position put these guys here, not everyone can be exceptional. If Octavian gets cut, he'll land somewhere else. Good problem to have

Ogletree - rumblings of an attitude not helping. Definitely taken a step back from this time last year. Shame, looked promising.

Watkins - career dissipation light blinking more rapidly

Williams, L&T - not so much

Stuck in Neutral

ASA - time to see something on the field

Bryant - borderline in this category, with all the excitement around his early exploits. But you can't make an impact from the Trainer's table. More of an Incomplete grade here

Hamlin - promising in every aspect but staying healthy enough to play

Holland - starting to really annoy me. Like my golf game, nothing worse than being stuck in mediocre

Lee - see Bryant comment

Lissimore - in this case less is not more, losing valuable opportunity to make an impression. Losing ground to Brent?

Siavii - what you see is what you get. Not necessarily a bad thing

Walls - hasn't distinguished himself as exceptionally good or bad

TBD - need more data to support a conclusion on the Trend Line

Buehler - not his fault, but I just can't trust an unproven PK until he earns it. Encouraged, though

Church - thought he was the UDFA keeper, may be getting passed by McCray

Costa - thought he was doing OK, since OAK, entire OL took a step backwards

M Johnson - not much of an idea, does it really matter?

Sicko - burning daylight here, what could have been a legit opportunity being frustrated by injury

Tepper - little idea, doesn't that say enough?

Again, this is not meant to be a comprehensive list, just relevant. Weigh in accordingly at your discretion.