SB Nation User Blog: teb7

World Ph'n Champions: A 2008 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

teb7 — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:46:39 -0000

2008

Record: 92-70, first place, won NLDS 3-1, won NLCS 4-1, won World Series 4-1

RS: 799, RA: 680, Pythag record: 93-69

Opening Day payroll: $98.2m

Destroyed cars: unknown

World Phuckin’ Champions. The losingest franchise in sports history won its second World Series in 125 years, to much rejoicing. The Phillies rode a second consecutive late season hot streak to the division title (helped once again by a Flushing choke job) and kept it going throughout the playoffs, going 11-3 in their run to glory. It was a deserved title—nothing like the fraudulent 2006 Cards—but it merits a closer look nonetheless.

The 2008 Phillies were solid across the board, and especially excelled at stealing bases and closing out games with their bullpen. 3 hitters had above-average OBP (Utley, Burrell, Werth), 3 had above-average SLG (Utley, Howard, Burrell), and there were only 2 real offensive holes in the starting 8 (Pete Happy and Carlos Dribblin’ Ruiz). They also had 3 excellent defenders (Rollins, Utley, Werth), and only 1 real clunker (Burrell). They had 1 excellent starter (Hamels) and 3 average innings munchers (Moyer, Myers, Blanton). Brad Lidge was the best reliever in baseball last year, confirmed by his league-leading WXRL, but everyone knew that anyway because of the whole not blowing a single save thing. Ryan Madson turned into a reliable setup man after years of posting solid peripherals, and JC Romero continued his renaissance from 2007. And yes, to give HAVOC-lovers a shout-out, the Phillies were one of the most successful base-stealing teams ever, along with our Big Red Machine teams from the 1970s.

What’s the point of all this? To show that one need not build a "perfect" ballclub to win a title. The 2008 Phillies were a team with 1 perfect ballplayer, 2 dominant pitching stars, and a supporting cast that was utterly complementary. Ryan Howard can’t field and can’t hit lefties to save his life, but Jayson Werth and Pat Burrell crush lefties and the rest of the Phillies infield was one of the best in baseball. Pat Burrell can’t field and struggles against righties, but Ryan Howard crushes righties and Victorino and Werth are way above average gloves in the outfield. Feliz has no redeeming offensive qualities, but at least he can field, right? And if you have a rotation with only one true ace, it certainly helps to have a lights-out bullpen.

In retrospect, the 2008 Phillies were a deftly constructed team, and much of the credit needs to go to Pat Gillick. Yes, the core of Utley/Rollins/Howard/Burrell/Hamels was there prior to his taking the job, but the pieces he added—Lidge, Werth, Victorino (Ed Wade got Victorino through the Rule 5 draft, but he didn’t get playing time until Gillick came along), Blanton, Romero—elegantly complemented that core’s weaknesses. This team should serve as a good lesson that it is very possible to build a championship-caliber club out of flawed ballplayers without spending like the Yankees. Here’s hoping Jocketty was taking notes.

2009

Approximate opening day payroll: $115m ($124 if you factor in Adam Eaton…what an astoundingly bad contract)

Unfortunately for Phillies fans, new GM Ruben Amaro didn’t seem to be taking notes. The Phillies’ only significant offseason move was to let Pat the Bat walk and replace him with Raul "Career DH" Ibanez. When you look at it, it really is an astonishingly bad move, as Ibanez is a little bit worse than Burrell in every aspect of his game, and to top it all off, is 5 years older and signed for twice the money. Aye carumba. I’ll now bow to what seems to be the popular format this year and take a whirl through the lineup and rotation. Fielding runs taken from Fan Graphs, projections are CHONE.

Lineup

1. SS Jimmy Rollins

2008: .277/.349/.437; .357 wOBA; +13.5 fielding runs; 44 net steals

2009: .281/.342/.452; .356 wOBA

Contract: 3 years, $23.5m left ($2m buyout)

Rollins was hampered by injuries last year, and did not come close to replicating his 2007 MVP season. However, almost every team would kill to have that line at SS; combine that with his above-average glove and excellent baserunning, and you’re still left with a top-5 shortstop in his late prime. Also note that PECOTA’s projection is much more optimistic.

2. CF Shane Victorino

2008: .293/.352/.447; .355 wOBA; +8.7 fielding runs; 25 net steals

2009: .288/.350/.444; .353 wOBA

Contract: 1 year, $3.125m (avoided arbitration)

The Flyin’ Hawaiian swung himself into Philly lore last postseason with a stomach-punching grand slam off of the Brewers’ CC Sabathia in the divisional series, but Victorino had been a valuable contributor all season long. Again, most teams would love to have his on-base skills, good glove, and good baserunning in center field. Rollins and Victorino perfectly illustrate just how valuable league-average bats are at premium defensive positions. Victorino is in his prime, so most projections see him retaining his value.

3. 2B Chase Utley

2008: .292/.380/.535; .391 wOBA; +19.5 fielding runs; 12 net steals

2009: .299/.381/.513; .391 wOBA

Contract: 5 years, $73m left

Utley really is close to being a perfect ballplayer. He mashes, can get on base, can put balls in play, is a gold-glove caliber fielder at a premium position, and is a smart baserunner. He is a true franchise player, and I admit to having leaped out of my seat when he made the famous pump fake throw home during the World Series’ deciding Game 5. Sadly, throw a large grain of salt onto that projection, because Utley is sidelined until May while recovering from hip surgery. That, combined with his being on the wrong side of 30, is a cause for concern. If he isn’t up to his normal caliber, the Phillies don’t have a chance of repeating.

4. 1B Ryan Howard

2008: .251/.339/.543; .366 wOBA; +3.0 fielding runs; 0 net steals

2009: .271/.379/.576; .409 wOBA

Contract: 3 years, $54m left

Howard’s prodigious numbers from 2006 and 2007 took a dip last year, but CHONE and other projections show him rebounding in a big way this season, which one might consider the last in his true peak years. He still can’t hit lefties and he still can’t field well. If this were a game of Strat-O-Matic I’d platoon the guy, but in the real world you just can’t platoon former MVPs. Therefore, Phillies fans will have to live with his warts and be happy that he’ll hit close to 50 homers without even trying.

5. LF Raul Ibanez

2008: .293/.358/.479; .356 wOBA; -11.9 fielding runs; -2 net steals

2009: .287/.359/.488; .368 wOBA

Contract: 3 years, $31.5m left

It’s not like Ibanez is a bad hitter, but his horrible defense and glacial baserunning render him far closer to an average player than his contract would have you believe. I don’t think anyone would rather have an age-37 Ibanez over an age-32 Burrell, and that’s not even accounting for the fact that the Phillies’ lineup will now tilt dangerously to the left. I perhaps shouldn’t rant so much about this deal, because the collapsing market certainly made it look worse than it would’ve been under normal circumstances. Amaro made a rookie mistake with this one.

6. Jayson Werth

2008: .273/.363/.498; .382 wOBA; +20.6 fielding runs; 19 net steals

2009: .264/.365/.445; .363 wOBA

Contract: 2 years, $10m left

Werth was one of the best bargains in baseball last year, providing above average offense, defense, and wheels in a very cheap package. He’s struggled with injuries his whole career, and the pessimistic projection is a reflection of this. Expect Werth to beat the projection if he stays as healthy as he did last season. Even if he doesn’t, he still provides great value with the glove.

7. Pedro Feliz

2008: .249/.302/.402; .306 wOBA; +7.8 fielding runs; 0 net steals

2009: .257/.303/.441; .323 wOBA

Contract: 2 years, $10m left ($500K buyout)

I guess it couldn’t get much worse for Feliz, but that’s still no reason for the Phillies to continue playing him. Greg Dobbs provides much better offense off the bench, and Feliz could still be used as a defensive replacement. It’s all about recognizing sunk costs, and Feliz is sunk like the Edmund Fitzgerald.

8. Carlos Ruiz

2008: .219/.320/.300; .279 wOBA; +1 net steals

2009: .256/.338/.396; .328 wOBA

Contract: last year before arb. eligible

Ouch, that is a painful line. This is another position where the Phillies would do better to favor bat over glove, but Uncle Charlie thinks otherwise. Phillies fans should hope that prospect Lou Marson proves himself major-league ready this year, because he should bring on base skills that Ruiz sorely lacks.

Rotation and Bullpen

1. LHP Cole Hamels

2008: 227.3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.72 FIP

2009: 187 IP, 3.42 ERA, 3.68 FIP

Contract: 3 Years, $20.5m left

Hamels is a true ace, and certainly pitched that way in the postseason. The Phillies rewarded him by buying out his arbitration years, and it certainly looks like they got a bargain. CHONE’s projection has him losing about 6 starts worth of innings, which looks prescient given his elbow problems this spring. Hamels is not quite all the way through the injury nexus yet, so Philly should handle him with care.

2. RHP Brett Myers

2008: 190 IP, 4.55 ERA, 4.52 FIP

2009: 153 IP, 4.06 ERA, 4.19 FIP

Contract: 1 year, $12m left

Myers was famously demoted all the way down to A ball last season after racking up a 5.84 ERA through the end of June. The move worked, as Myers reverted to form during the second half—solid, but not spectacular, and able to miss bats when he needs to. CHONE and other projections agree that his 2nd half is more representative of his true talent.

3. LHP Jamie Moyer

2008: 196.3 IP, 3.71 ERA, 4.32 FIP

2009: 138 IP, 4.89 ERA, 4.85 FIP

Contract: 2 years, $13m left

The craftiest lefty of them all. I’d bet the over on IP and the under on ERA in that CHONE projection. Moyer’s so old and throws so slowly, it’s hard to see how to see another year will make that much of a difference. Moyer is one of the most unique players of our time, and it was nice to see him get some recognition in the postseason.

4. RHP Joe Blanton

2008: 197.6 IP, 4.69 ERA, 4.52 FIP

2009: 196 IP, 3.95 ERA, 4.00 FIP

Contract: 1 year, $5.475m (avoided arbitration)

Blanton is a back-end innings muncher straight out of central casting, but CHONE and almost all other projections see him improving his performance this year. At the very least, he is a reliable source of 200 IP, which automatically makes him a bargain.

5. RHP Chan Ho Park

2008: 95.3 IP, 3.40 ERA, 4.37 FIP

2009: 56 IP, 4.18 ERA, 4.02 FIP

Contract: 1 year, $2.5m

Um, okay. Park’s main benefit is that he is not Adam Eaton, whom they are paying $8.5m to leave. Park somehow cobbled together a decent season as a long reliever in LA last year, but I’m not as optimistic as most of the projections are. There’s a reason this guy became a punchline, and switching from Chavez Ravine to Citizen’s Bank will not help his cause. Expect youngster Carlos Carrasco to take his spot at some point during the season.

Closer: RHP Brad Lidge

2008: 1.95 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 11.9 K/9

2009: 3.22 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 10.8 K/9

Contract: 3 years, $37.5m left, plus $12.5m club option ($1.5m buyout)

Lidge had arguably the best season a closer has ever had last season, going 41/41 in save opportunities during the regular season and, more famously, 7 for 7 in the playoffs. To do it a bandbox park with Philly fans is even more impressive. There’s nowhere to go but down, but Lidge will still be an elite closer and should provide decent value for the contract.

Setup: RHP Ryan Madson

2008: 3.05 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 7.3 K/9

2009: 3.77 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 7.5 K/9

Contract: 3 years, $12m left

Madson blossomed in the setup role last year, but I don’t think he strikes out enough guys to be considered in the same breath as Broxton, Putz, and Marmol. Those three guys have "closer" stuff, which Madson will never have. Still, he was reliable, and $4m per isn’t that bad considering what we’re paying Mike Lincoln.

The Rest

The Phillies have a flexible bench in terms of positioning, and Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs provide pop from both sides of the plate (although Dobbs would help the team more if he started at 3rd). The rest of the bullpen is well balanced, but most projections expect some regression.

Manager: Charlie Manuel, 574-484, .543, 1 WS Title

Uncle Charlie has some maddening tics, like refusing play better hitters at 3B and C, but you can't argue with his results. He handled the bullpen with aplomb last year, and his easygoing style seems to work well in a crazed town like Philly. Since the roster is pretty much the same as last year, don't expect too much to change, although I'd like to see him split up Utley and Howard with Werth.

Prediction

The team is largely unchanged from last season, but swapping Burrell for Ibanez will cost them some runs, and the pitching staff will probably give up a few more runs as well. Therefore, I expect them to be a bit below last year’s Pythag record, peg them for 91 wins. The Braves and the Mets should be better this season, which should make for a compelling race for both the Eastern division title and the wild card. Note that if Utley ends up missing significantly more time than projected, knock this prediction down to 85 wins and struggling to stay in contention.

Future

The future is now, as the World Series core remains in its prime. Nearly every key player is between 27-31 years old, which means the Phillies can contend with this core for another year or two. RHP Carlos Carrasco is a blue chipper who is probably major league ready now, but will bide his time in AAA until Chan Ho Park explodes. C Lou Marson is a decent catching prospect who could help the team this year with his offensive skills. The Phils also have 3 younger, high-upside prospects in RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, and C Travis D’Arnaud. These 3 are still a few years away, but all project to be big league regulars, with Taylor possessing some real power potential.

Reds Connections

The Phillies apparently signed Jason Ellison to a minor league deal. That’s about it. That their roster is so devoid of former Reds may provide a clue about their recent success.

Bill Hall All-Star

Pedro Feliz absolutely kills the Reds, hitting .302/.362/.540 in 152 PA against his career line of .252/.290/.429. Yes, he pretty much turns into Mike Schmidt against us.

Tomo Okha All-Star

Cole Hamels is too good to be considered a true Tomo Okha All-Star, but it’s worth noting that in 30 career innings against the Reds, he’s given up 2 earned runs and 14 hits. Mama.

2009 Matchups

May 19-21 in Cincinnati

July 6-9 in Philadelphia

History

The first real notable interaction between the two franchises came in the star-crossed year of 1964, when the Phillies blew a 6.5 game league with 12 games to play by losing 10 games in a row and allowing the damn Cardinals to win the pennant. What many people forget is that our Reds, led by Frank Robinson, Vada Pinson, Jim Maloney and the ailing Fred Hutchinson, were right in the thick of it; they were tied for the lead with 4 games to play and looked like they were going to win the pennant for Hutch. Sadly, the Reds lost 3 of their last 4 and finished tied for 2nd with the Phillies.

The 1976 Big Red Machine easily swept aside Mike Schmidt’s Phillies in the NLCS, which apparently made such an impression on Philly’s GM that he went out and signed half of the Big Red Machine. Pete Rose won a ring in 1980 with the Phillies, and Tony Perez and Joe Morgan joined him in 1983 to lead the Phillies to the NL pennant. It was the last bit of glory for Perez and Morgan. Here’s hoping we pull off something similar and sign Utley, Howard, and Rollins in 2015, just so they know how weird it is to see your team’s legends celebrating in another uniform.

Sources: FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus, Cot's Baseball Contracts

Seeking 1 intrepid soul to join stat-geek fantasy baseball league

teb7 — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 16:21:30 -0000

Howdy. This is an open invitation to join a Yahoo fantasy league my friend is running. We have four open spots. League parameters: 12 team mixed, points-only scoring. Max games per position: 162. Max innings: 1375. The scoring is based on linear runs, so the idea is to draft players who are actually good at baseball. Live draft, currently scheduled for Thurs. March 26 at 9pm.

Here are the positions:

C,C,1B,2B,SS,3B,CI,MI,CF,OF,OF,OF,OF,UT,UT,P,P,P,P,P,P,P,P

7 bench spots, 2 DL spots.

Notice that we do not distinguish between starting and relief pitchers. Drafting all starters won't help you beacuse of the innings limit. It's up to you to find the right balance of starters and relievers. The main idea is to reflect the fact that a 100 ERA+ starter is far more valuable than a 100 ERA+ closer.

Here are the points values:

AB	-.26
H	.26
1B	.47
2B	.85
3B	1.02
HR	1.4
SB	.22
CS	-.38
BB	.33
HBP	.33
OUT	.29
ER	-.74
HR	-.7
BB	-.165
HBP	-.165
1BA	-.235
2BA	-.425
3BA	-.51

The pitching stats start with OUT. As you can see, there is no K category. The categories are essentially the components of OBP and SLG. Also note that we penalize for CS.

If you're interested, reply to this thread and I will send you the league info. Some of us in the league already are more competitive than others, but in general, it's just a group of laid-back SABR-minded dudes. If you sign up though, please plan on sticking with the league at least through the August 16 trade deadline.

SI Reds Spring Training Postcard

teb7 — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 02:13:06 -0000

SI Reds Spring Training Postcard

SI has already bestowed upon us the dreaded "Rays of 2009" title.

EXTRA INNINGS BACK ON CABLE

teb7 — Thu, 05 Apr 2007 02:22:52 -0000

Woohoo! Yeehaw! Yippee-Kai-Yay!

Uh....300 Characters! Hooray! Extra Innings is back on cable!

Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

300?

Hopefully the AP isn't lying.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-tvpackage&prov=ap&type=lgns

RR Season Preview: New York Mets

teb7 — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 13:32:00 -0000

Following up ken's excellent Phillies preview was a challenge, but I hope everyone enjoys this preview of the Metropolitans. Main sources for this include Baseball Prospectus, the Hardball Times, baseball-reference.com, and Tom Seaver's Wikipedia page.

Disclaimer: I may have gone a bit overboard on this one, but I was procrastinating!

2006
The Mets went 97-65, finishing a whopping 12 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East and ending Atlanta's 16-year division title streak (NL West and NL East combined). It was New York's first division title since 1988. There wasn't much of a division race, as New York took the division lead on April 6th and didn't surrender it for the rest of the year; they won the division with 2 weeks left in the season. Faced with the struggles of Cliff Floyd and the injuries to Pedro Martinez, the Mets dealt for Shawn Green (who didn't fare much better than Floyd), the enigmatic Oliver Perez, and Orlando Hernandez late in the season.

The hitting stars shined for the 2006 Mets. They finally got their money's worth out of Carlos Beltran, who set career highs in HR, SLG, RBI, OPS, R, won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, and finished 4th in MVP voting. Jose Reyes broke out and became the most dynamic leadoff hitter in the National League. David Wright had a great season and kept the Scott Rolen comparisons going. Carlos Delgado was the idea cleanup hitter, getting on base (.361 OBP) and slugging 38 homers. Even Jose Valentin had a miracle renaissance season at age 36.

Even with all their offensive stars, the real strength in 2006 was the bullpen. Billy Wagner solidified his status as one of the top 3 closers in baseball, and the bullpen went 5 deep, with Aaron Heilman, Chad Bradford, "Suck It" Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, and Darren Oliver (!?!?!) all posting ERA+ well above the league average. The Mets also had the highest save percentage in the league at 74%.

The biggest story may have been the health of Pedro Martinez. Petey only pitched 132 2/3 innings, and turned in the worst performance of his career. While his ERA was higher than it should have been based on his peripheral stats (K/9, BB/9, HR/9), there was no denying that Pedro was not himself. If not for a vintage Tom Glavine season (113 ERA+) and competent fill-ins from John Maine (120 ERA+) and El Duque (106 ERA+), things could have gone differently.

In the playoffs, the Mets made quick work of the Dodgers in the Divisional round, but lost a heartbreaking 7-game NLCS to the Cardinals, suffering the indignity of being beaten by a Yadier "54 OPS+" Molina home run. Mets fans were left wondering what might have been had Pedro been healthy enough to spare them a Steve Trachsel playoff start, but in truth, the Mets lost the series because, with the exception of Beltran and Delgado, the bats went to sleep and the bullpen didn't pitch as well as it did in the regular season.

The Reds split a 4 game series in New York during June, with the most memorable game being a comeback win against Billy Wagner. Brandon Phillips had the game-winning 2-run single in that game on June 21st. The Mets took two of three in Cincy in July, with the Reds win coming after a 2 ½ hour rain delay.

2007
Living in Upstate New York, I interact with a lot of Mets fans. Their foremost concern for the upcoming season is the starting rotation. Tom Glavine is as close as there comes to an ace in the group, and he's 41 and more of a #2 guy anyway. El Duque is old, but still has enough left in the tank to give them league average innings. John Maine should be league average as well, and while his high home run rate was a concern, he's only 26 and has potential to improve. The biggest question mark is whether Oliver Perez can look anything like the pitcher who took the NL by storm in 2004, which is looking more and more like a fluke season. While he delivered a heroic start in NLCS Game 7, it's unlikely that he'll perform consistently enough to be a real asset. As for Pedro, the earliest he'll be back is the All-Star break, and when he does return, he's unlikely to be the same pitcher. The Mets are probably just wishcasting with Chan Ho Park as a fill in--even pitching in PetCo, he could only muster a 4.81 ERA last year. With the rotation lacking a true dominant ace, Mets fans regret the Kazmir trade now more than ever.

The Mets have one of the best infields in baseball, and if not for their crosstown rivals, could boast the top left side. Given their performances last year, it is a testament to their potential that David Wright and Jose Reyes are expected to further improve. The mainstream media fawns over Wright, whose combination of good looks and better performance lead many to believe he will take on a Jeter-like omnipresence in New York. While such recognition won't come without pennants and rings, expect him to improve his hitting performance from last year and edge toward superstardom. Reyes's blazing speed makes him one of the most exciting players in the league, as he stole 64 bases (caught 17 times) and hit 17 triples for the second consecutive season. He and Hanley Ramirez should go neck and neck for All-Star starts at shortstop over the next 10 years. Reyes will always hit for high average thanks to his speed, but his improved walk rate shows that he has improved his pitch recognition, suggesting he has set a new baseline for performance rather than simply spiking. On the right side, expect Delgado to put up similar numbers and for Valentin to regress back to his normal career levels. However, LLM's bro should still be good for 15-20 homers. Paul Lo Duca is a great chemistry guy, and while he probably shouldn't bat 2nd, produces adequately for a catcher.

The Mets outfield will be much improved this year with the arrival of Moises Alou from San Francisco. Age aside, the man can rake, especially against lefties (.330/.395/.556 career vs. LHP). Beltran and Delgado struggled against lefties last year, so Alou should discourage extensive LOOGY (lefty specialist) use in the late innings if Willie Randolph bats him between the two Carloses. Beltran probably won't reach the stratospheric heights he did last year, but will still be a contender for MVP. The real weak spot on the team is in right field, where the Mets have Shawn Green and his horrendous contract. Green will likely be one of the worst right fielders in the league, and he has lost all of his once above-average fielding ability. If on-the-cusp prospect Lastings Milledge had shown up last year, it'd be advisable to start him in right, but it looks like he needs some more minor league seasoning.

The bullpen might regress a bit, but Wagner should remain one of the best closers in the game. Heilman and Mota are good setup men, while Feliciano and ex-Red rental Scott Schoeneweis are the top lefties. The Mets made low-risk/high-reward trade, getting fireballer Ambiorix Burgos from the Royals for the middling Brian Bannister. The Royals made Burgos their closer before he was ready, and a low-leverage role in the Mets `pen may be just what he needs to jump-start his development and grow into being a dominant closer. If pitching coach Rick Peterson can help fix Burgos's control, expect him to challenge Heilman for New York's top setup spot by the end of the season.

Defensively, the Mets ranked 2nd in the league in fielding efficiency in 2006, and were very strong up the middle, with Reyes, Valentin, and Beltran ranking in the Top 3 of NL Zone Rating (not a perfect metric, but it'll do). On the negative side, Alou and Green are fairly useless in the field, and Lo Duca has a noodle arm (76% stolen bases against). There's no reason to expect a sharp downturn in team defense, however, especially since The Slick Fielding Endy Chavez will likely replace Green or Alou in the late innings of any close game.

Overall, the Mets will probably score around the same amount of runs, but they will allow more. Expect a record more in line with their Pythagenport record last year, 91-71. Don't be surprised to see a deadline deal to bring in a starting pitcher, with Milledge possibly being used as a trading chip. If this were Hollywood, Pedro would return in September and pitch them into the playoffs, but he may not have enough left to do it in reality. The Mets will fight it out with the Phillies for the division, but in the weak NL, 90 wins is probably enough for at least a Wild Card berth.

Future
The big news for the future of the Mets is CitiField (Worst. Name. Ever.), scheduled to replace the criminally ugly Shea Stadium in 2009. I'm not all that excited about the design, but anything is better than the donut aesthetic. As for the farm system, the Mets are top heavy with solid pitching prospects Mike Pelfrey and Phillip Humber, both of whom should slot into the rotation in 2008. Don't rule out the chance that one of them will impress in a cup `o joe situation and make a case for inclusion on the postseason roster. Other than Milledge, the top hitting prospect is Fernando Martinez, a toolsy 18-year-old who will either bat leadoff or third in his career, depending on how much his power develops. Either way, scouts say he's very advanced for such a young age. Combined with the young talents of Reyes and Wright, the Mets have the makings of a solid nucleus that could last well into the next decade.

Reds Connections
The only former Reds on the 40-man roster are Schoeneweis, who parlayed his not-terrible performance with the Reds into a 3 year $10.8m deal, and Dave "DWI" Williams, whose presence shows how desperate the Mets are for pitching. The Reds current team boasts no prominent ex-Mets, although as mentioned, LLM is Jose Valentin's younger brother.

Bill Hall All-Star
Jose Valentin (29 games against)
Career stats: .243/.322/.450 (AVG/OBP/SLG)
Career stats vs. Reds: .283/.365/.522

Moises Alou has more homers against Cincinnati (30) than against any other team. However, he's a bit too talented to be considered for this award.

Tomo Okha All-Star
DWI is as close as it gets, but he's only had 6 starts against the Reds.
Career stats: 22-30/4.64/1.38 (W-L/ERA/WHIP)
Career stats vs. Reds: 2-3/3.09/1.22

Tom Glavine is 26-12 in his career against the Reds, although his ERA and WHIP against us are virtually identical to his career numbers.

2007 Matchups
The Reds travel to Queens for a 4 game set from July 12-15 (Thu.-Sun.). The first 3 games are night games; the second is your standard Sunday afternoon affair. Hopefully a large RR contingent, including myself, will attend. The Mets visit Cincy for a 3 game series from September 3-5 (Mon.-Wed.); the games on the 3rd and 5th are afternoon games. I predict that Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey will lead the Reds to a sweep.

History
Most Reds fans get a bitter taste in their mouths when the Mets come up in conversation, largely because of the 1999 season. The '99 Reds were among the best stories in baseball. They boasted a plethora of young position players who peaked simultaneously, and were led by a savvy manager and a vintage Hall-of-Fame season from their captain, Barry Larkin. In any other season, their 96 wins would have assured them a playoff berth. But not that season. The Reds were one of five teams to win at least 95 in the NL. Going into the final weekend of the season, the Reds led the Mets for the Wild Card by two games. While the Mets swept the Pirates, the Reds lost two of three to the Brewers, leaving them tied with 96-66 records. They played a one-game playoff to decide the Wild Card spot at Cinergy Field on October 4th, the results of which can be summed in two words: Al $%*@#$% Leiter. Leiter pitched a 2-hit complete game shutout and ended the Reds' dream season. Hence, Reds fans do not have much pity for Mets fans who whine about playing second fiddle to the Yankees. Also, Reds fans hate Al Leiter. At least I do.

Two other colorful tidbits of Reds/Mets history are the brawl between Pete Rose and Bud Harrelson during the 1973 NLCS and the trade of Tom Seaver in 1977.

This article does a great job of describing the events of the Rose/Harrelson encounter, including the brutal treatment Rose received afterward from the Shea crowd. As for the series itself, the upstart Mets upset the Reds 3 games to 2, becoming the worst team (82-79) ever to make the World Series. While the legacy of the 1970s Reds is secure, adding one more NL pennant and getting another shot at Oakland would give today's Reds fans even more ammo in debates about the greatest team of all time. In addition to the brawl and the mediocrity, the 1973 Mets are best known for coining two famous baseball phrases: closer Tug McGraw's "Ya Gotta Believe" (which the Mets have trademarked) and manager Yogi Berra's "It ain't over `til it's over." All that scrappy underdog karma almost got them a title; Oakland needed all 7 games to win the World Series.

When the Mets traded Seaver to the Reds in 1977 for Pat Zachry, Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, and Dan Norman, the New York press dubbed it the "Midnight Massacre." The trade happened because Mets ownership was unwilling to meet Seaver's contract demands. Mets fans hated the deal, and attendance cratered in the ensuing years, with Shea Stadium earning the nickname "Grant's Tomb." Seaver went on to have a successful career in Cincinnati (75-46), though he never matched the 3 Cy Young Awards and World Series title he won in New York. However, Tom Terrific pitched his only career no-hitter in Cincinnati, after having come agonizingly close in New York (he threw five one-hitters for the Mets). The no-hitter for the Reds is particularly vexing to Mets fans because no pitcher in franchise history has ever pitched a no-no. Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Doc Gooden, and Mike Scott are all former Mets who threw no-hitters for different teams.

Despite '99 and '73, the Reds dwarf the Mets in terms of historical significance, having won 10 pennants and 5 titles to the Mets' 4 and 2 (when citing this, always conveniently forget that the Mets have existed for only 45 years). It's always fun to mention the Seaver deal, as well as nonchalantly mentioning Johnny Van Der Meer's consecutive no-hitters. I mean, it can't be THAT hard to throw a no-hitter, right?

PECOTA batting projections

teb7 — Thu, 18 Jan 2007 02:58:57 -0000

Baseball Prospectus just released their 2007 PECOTA projections. Here are some notable Reds' offensive projections. The one that blew me out of the water was Votto. Hopefully he'll be up with the team sometime in 2007. Remember, these are the "weighted mean" projections.

Jay Bruce: .264/.319/.464 (not quite ready yet)

Jeff Conine: .268/.334/.401 (thanks Wayne)

Bubba Crosby: .249/.315/.376 (thanks again!)

Chris Denorfia: .296/.365/.459 (pretty tasty...especially if they play him in CF)

Adam Dunn: .267/.390/.574 (um...seems a bit optimistic, but we can hope!)

EdE: .277/.350/.482 (I'm hoping for more)

Ryan Freel: .271/.361/.404 (eh...)

Alex Gonzalez: .258/.309/.426 (hold me)

Junior: .275/.344/.506 (I'll take it)

Hatteberg: .285/.372/.416 (too bad he plays 1st)

Hollandsworth: .269/.323/.452 (erm, not bad for a 4th OF...why do we need Conine again?)

Phillips: .273/.331/.419 (he'll SLG better than this)

David Ross: .240/.324/.459 (he'll be better than this)

Drew Stubbs: .217/.282/.311 (DEFINITELY not ready)

Valentin: .242/.314/.403 (meh)

Joey Votto: .284/.366/.511 (holy CRAP that's an awesome line--get him in the bigs! Hafner is on his comps list!)

Mojo!

teb7 — Wed, 27 Sep 2006 17:35:33 -0000

Hey all! I know I've been a stranger since law school started, but given the importance of these last 5 games, I felt like I had to get on here express my wishes for good mojo upon the Reds and horrible voodoo curses on the Cards and 'Stros.

Let's concentrate all our energy on these images, and perhaps they will result in Michalak getting a bit more snap in his breaking pitches tonight.

My baseball road trip

teb7 — Wed, 09 Aug 2006 03:40:41 -0000

For those who don't remember, I spent a week in July with my brother on a baseball stadium tour of Detroit, Cincy (twice), St. Louis, and Kansas City. Here are my reports with a few photos thrown in.

Sunday July 16: Detroit vs. Kansas City (Comerica)

The drive to Detroit was very smooth, at least until we got into the city. We then spent ONE HOUR going ONE MILE, because everyone in the entire freakin city got off at the same exit to get to Comerica. Very poor planning, Detroit. The stadium itself is wonderful. Great sightlines everywhere, attractive scoreboard and batters eye, and statues of Tigers greats on the outfield concourse. The OF concourse is great. All along, you get a great view of the game and the bullpens, and you can walk under the OF fountains to beat the heat (and it was hot--almost 100 degrees!). The game itself was remarkable in that the least likely result of the season happened--the Royals beat the Tigers! KC nickeled and dimed their way to 9 runs and their bullpen "held off" a late inning charge. However, the Tigers were fielding a typical Sunday lineup, with Omar Freakin Infante hitting third. Marcus Thames had 2 HR and 5 RBI for Detroit--both homers were no-doubters and the packed house made a lot of noise. Joey Gathright of all people was the star for KC. All in all, a great park and a decent game. My only complaint is the overpriced concessions. 8 bucks for a beer? No thanks. Here's a pic from our seats:

Tuesday July 18: Reds vs. Mets (GABP)

This was the Beltran grand slam game. 'Nuff said. We booed Narron lustily from the moon deck right underneath the smokestacks. Before the game, we dined in the Machine Room for the first time. The onion rings are by far the best thing on the menu. I love the "little pink" or "no pink" menu note for the burgers. Not a bad place to hang out before the game. It was my 5th or 6th trip to the smallpark, but my first time sitting in the moon deck. I enjoyed the game quite a bit out there. Good view of the scoreboard and close to the outfield action (granted, we were in the 4th row). GABP is certainly a nice park, but it doesn't take your breath away like Fenway or Wrigley. The best part about it is the Reds Hall of Fame. Here's my favorite pic from the game:

Wednesday July 19: Cards vs. Braves (Busch Redux)

Nothing like watching my two least favorite NL teams battle it out. My brother wore his "Cardinals take it in their Pujols" shirt and we both wore Reds caps. We didn't get too much crap for it, although an usher told my brother to turn his shirt inside out because it is "suggestive". You're damn right it's suggestive! It suggests the Cardinals suck! Anyway, this night was notable not for the game, but for the GIGANTIC thunderstorm that swept through St. Louis not one minute after the national anthem. The first part of the storm was a wall of wind, which apparently gusted up to 90 MPH. Anything that wasn't nailed down went flying around the concourses, including vendor carts and tents. We retreated to a small building covering the elevators on the upper deck so we wouldn't get impaled. Then the rains came. Biblical rains. Our shelter turned into a wind tunnel and soaked us, so we gave up and went downstairs, where the other 35,000 smarter people were. Carts were smashing up against the front gates thanks to the wind, and with every crash came a roar from the crowd. The wind was so strong it ripped a hole in the tarp, and it took them an hour and a half to clean up home plate. They played the whole game though, which ended up being a Redbird blowout. Man, I hate the Cardinals. The new Busch is fantastic though. The view of the arch makes it quintessential St. Louis, the scoreboard is one of the best I've seen, and the sightlines are phenomenal. It just has that extra "wow" factor that GABP seems to lack. The lower concourse is a bit nondescript, however, and the concessions are very expensive (7.75 for a beer!). The Cards call it "Baseball Heaven". I wouldn't go that far, but it's certainly in my top 5. Here are two pics--one before the storm, and one taken 30 minutes later!

Thursday July 20: Kansas City vs. LA Angels (Kauffman)

After 3 new parks, we went retro 70s style in KC. Kauffman is, in fact, a rather beautiful park. the curvature of the upper deck is very elegant, the logo-shaped scoreboard is charming, and the waterfalls and fountains make for a very pleasant background. Even better was that thanks to a contact in Cincinnati, we ended up with player's comp tickets (from Brandon Duckworth!) behind home plate. Free Royals baseball! Quite the bargain, I have to say. Of course we were filled up with KC BBQ (Fiorella's Jack Stack from the south side), so we didn't partake in any of the cheap concessions. However, we did witness another Royals victory! It was a seesaw game, and once again, the Royals nickeled and dimed their way to victory. The crowd of about 12,000 was into it the whole game, and they were cheering loudest when the Royals got to 11 hits (12 hits meant free Dunkin Donuts). These were truly die-hard fans. The ones who are there truly love the Royals. It's hard not to feel for them. I'd like to return one day with the upper deck filled up. However, with not a single Royal in the lineup with double digit HR it's easy to see why they stay away. One more note: before the BBQ and the game, we visited the American Negro League Museum. It's smaller than I thought it would be, but it is filled with great artifacts and a few good films as well. Definitely a must-see for any baseball fan if you're ever in the KC area. Here's my favorite pic from the KC game:

And finally, Saturday July 22 Reds v. Brewers

This was Joe Mays final appearance for the Reds, thank goodness. I almost felt bad for him as he exited, because he had one good inning and seemed fired up about it. But note my use of "almost". Stormy had his first bad outing in a while and surrendered the lead. We didn't get it back until Freel's second homer of the game in the 8th. Everyday El Guapo came in for a relatively uneventful save, and sent the crowd home happy. Typical rollercoaster Reds game. We were in great seats, about 20 rows back from the first base dugout. My brother and I almost caught a foul ball, but we didn't call for it and it bounced off both our hands. No matter what he says, it was his fault. This game was notable for the 4 Skyline coneys I ate. Best ballpark food EVER.

Ok, I'm spent. If I think of anything else I'll post it in the comments later.

Ballpark road trip

teb7 — Fri, 14 Jul 2006 05:59:07 -0000

Tomorrow I am embarking on a journey with my little brother that will take us to 4 ballparks we have never been to, plus a couple of Reds games. Itinerary is as follows, if you want to live vicariously:

Sunday July 16: Comercia Park, Tigers v. Royals
Tuesday July 18: GABP, Reds v. Mets
Wednesday July 19: New Busch Stadium, Cards v. Braves
Thursday July 20: Kauffman Stadium, Royals v. Angels
Saturday or Sunday July 22/23: GABP, Reds v. Brewers
Sunday or Monday July 23/24: Jacobs Field, Indians v. Twins or Tigers

Our homebase for the operation will be our aunt's house in Washington Court House--the trips to Cincy, Detroit, and Cleveland will be day trips, and we're staying overnight in St. Louis and KC. We won't have much time in StL, but in KC we're planning on visiting the Negro League Baseball Museum and getting some BBQ. We're also bringing our trusty Strat-O-Matic with us, and hopefully we'll be able to complete our 2004 tournament and start up on our 1999 tourney.

All told, we'll be putting 3600 miles on the ole' Honda Accord if you factor in the initial and final trips to and from Ithaca, NY. 3600 miles, all in the name of baseball geekdom.

I'm returning home at the beginning of August because we're staying an extra week out there with our aunt and cousins. Hopefully I'll have some good pictures to share.

Bon Voyage, and go Reds!!!

All Star Game "counts" again!

teb7 — Wed, 21 Jun 2006 01:08:59 -0000

Bud Selig is a buffoon.

I have never heard any say that home field advantage being determined by the All Star Game is a good idea, except for Selig and his toadies. Was the tie really that bad? Honestly? I'd rather see a tie than this. Let's put it to the public.

Poll

Should the All Star Game determine home field advantage?

Yes

7 votes

No

17 votes

24 votes | Poll has closed