SB Nation User Blog: tedfordfan

Fangraphs on Bay

tedfordfan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:02:50 -0000

Fangraphs on Bay

Turns out, over the course of the last 3 years, he hasn't been the worst defender in all of baseball. There have been 4 worse.

I used to kind of like Scott...

tedfordfan — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:57:56 -0000

I used to kind of like Scott...

"This season is a perfect example of how pitching and defense win baseball games," center fielder Aaron Rowand said. "Our offense obviously is not the greatest, but it's not terrible, either."

Wow. Just... wow.

Discuss.

More evidence of Grant's expanding influence

tedfordfan — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 17:15:08 -0000

More evidence of Grant's expanding influence

Quoted by Broshius. Wow. Just wow. How about some of those quotes that didn't make it into the article?

Opinions on Bumgarner

tedfordfan — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:01:45 -0000

Has Bumgarner's status fallen this year a bit?

On the one hand, he's 9-1, throwing 106 IP, allowing only 80 hits, and has posted an ERA of 1.95, a WHIP of 1.03 and an FIP of 3.52 in AA while just turning 20 a month ago. This performance was following a very good month in high A ball, which was similar to his dominant season last year.

On the other hand, his BB% has risen (to a still good 7.9% in AA from 4% last year), and his K% has declined dramatically (from 29.4% last year to only 16.5% in AA ball this year - 23% in the one month at high A). Additionally, there are reports of decreased velocity, although he's still throwing a lot of innings and there doesn't appear to be any concern for injury (at least no more than for any other pitcher). He's not a GB pitcher (44% GB rate) and has a very low BABIP in AA (.243).

So how many of you are concerned about his progress this year? Do you think he's a top-10 prospect?

Eastern League All Stars

tedfordfan — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:25:29 -0000

Eastern League All Stars

Pill and Bond make it at 1B and 2B respectively. Bumgarner gets ignored. NO STRIKEOUT STUFF!!!! Hopefully this provides some of that "you-dissed-me" motivation that athletes find so... well... motivating... and MadBum comes back to post a K% of over 30% in the PCL next year.

Giants Organizational Philosophy

tedfordfan — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:24:13 -0000

This is pretty much speculation based on some selective quotes (which I don't have the inclination to look up right now) and my own ruminations- so take this for what it's worth. It's prompted by the recent Shawon Dunston quote in the SI article about Kung Fu Panda.

If the Giants emphasize anything as an organization it is playing the game off of the fastball.

For pitchers, they look for live arms with good movement and try to emphasize control. Jim Callis (or is it John Manuel) says that fastball velocity, movement and control are the keys to evaluating pitching prospects, and from what I can tell based on the Giants drafts, this is definitely their philosophy and what they try to emphasize drafting, developing and signing players.

For hitters, they look for guys who are athletic and can hit the fastball. They look for raw bat speed and attacking fastballs in the zone, as they are the pitches most frequently thrown. I think our Latin America signings and draft picks tend exhibit these traits. We look for good defenders with superior hand-eye coordination because no matter who you are, you're going to see predominantly fastballs in your professional life. Other skills are subsequently built around this (in theory).

Now, I think that this philosophy has worked well for evaluating and developing pitchers, but falls short (but isn't necessarily flawed) in developing and evaluating hitters. Clearly, there needs to be an emphasis on both pitch recognition (which many of our hitters don't have) and discipline (which many of our hitters don't have). The "aggressiveness" approach is fundamentally OK, as long as one understands the parameters of that approach - attacking fastballs IN THE STRIKE ZONE. Unfortunately, this basic parameter seems to be lacking when it comes to Giants hitters because (as mentioned above) they lack recognition and discipline. The hyperbole expressed by Dunston takes a fundamentally sound approach, distorts it, and makes it tremendously flawed.

So, in conclusion, I agree that Shawon should STFU when speaking about the hitting aspect of the game and limit himself to coaching what he was actually hired to coach - infielders - i.e. infield defense.

On Trading Alderson

tedfordfan — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:26:23 -0000

It seems that many people around here want to trade Alderson. And there are a ton of legitimate reasons for wanting to do so (including injury risk, which is always a concern). But among them is not the idea that he's a back of the rotation starter at best (AT BEST I TELL YOU!).

When we drafted Alderson, he was seen as a potential #2 starter. So far, he has dominated high A ball as a 19 year old, posting the league's lowest ERA and FIP. He has been promoted to AA as a 20 year old and is currently one of the youngest players in the league. He's posted a B/9 of under 2, a K/BB ratio of almost 3.5, and a WHIP of under 1.2. His BABIP is normal (.293) and his GO/FO ratio isn't incredibly skewed either (0.99). The only concern is his K/9 rate of 6.09. There is nothing to indicate that he isn't performing exactly like he should be.

So why don't people think he'll be a solid #2? Probably because of the quote from a scout in a Baseball Prospectus article which basically said, "yeah, I don't get the hype - he's a sure fire major leaguer, but probably a back-of-the-rotation guy." This is a sentiment with which I completely agree. If Tim Alderson never improves or changes one little bit, he's a #4 or #5 starter.

But he's 20 years old and has a lot of room for improvement. He already has plus-plus control (very few walks) and plus command (average to low hit rates) as well as a plus curve ball. He has a fringe-average fastball and change-up, which are both hindering him from developing further. His change is relatively new, as is the case with almost all high school pitchers who never have to throw it. It seems like he'll develop it to the point where it's at LEAST an average major league pitch.

His fastball, on the other hand, seems to lack movement and velocity, despite throwing a 2-seemer (someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm almost positive he mostly throws the 2-seemer). Will either of those two things change? My inclination is to say yes (thus, my opinion of him as a #2 starter). He's 6'6" and from the time we drafted him, scouts seemed to think that he'll add velocity. Adding 2-3 MPH will give him an average FB. Adding 4-5 MPH will give him a plus FB. Will that translate into a better K/9? Dunno. But I'm also inclined to think that he'll have the opportunity during the offseason to experiment with new grips to add sink to his FB, resulting in higher GB% in the future (something key to watch in his development). He also will probably work on something new like a cutter this year or next to throw into his arsenol.

There are lots of reasons to want to trade Alderson, many of which I agree with - but declining value and unliklihood of being a very good major league pitcher is not one of them.

Would love to hear your thoughts.

Poll

What do you think is the most likely career path of Tim Alderson?

A solid #2 starter for many years.

31 votes

A solid #3 starter with a few years of greatness thrown in.

120 votes

A perfectly average major league starter for a decade.

78 votes

A #4 starter who gets lucky occasionally and has some good years.

15 votes

A #5 starter who struggles to keep his job in a rotation after his arbitration years run out.

5 votes

249 votes | Poll has closed

Giants' Fan - Trade Inquiry

tedfordfan — Mon, 25 May 2009 14:05:22 -0000

Given the fact that the Giants have lots of quality pitching and no hitting; and the Nats have quality hitting but no pitching, they are logical trade partners. I know the value of the Giant's arms, but want to know more about what Nats fans think about their bats. Specifically, I want to know the value of two: 1) Nick Johnson and 2) Ryan Zimmerman.

I know, I know... there's no way you're going to trade Zimmerman. I get that. I just want to hear your thoughts on his value relative to what the Giants have.

For your convenience, below is a list of young Giants pitchers you may or may not be interested in. By no means is this list exhaustive, but I've listed the pitchers that I think actually have value and, for the most part, don't want the Giants to trade (with one notable exception). Relievers are denoted with an * and lefties with a #.

ML:

Tim Lincecum

Matt Cain

Jonathan Sanchez (#)

Merkin Valdez*

Brian Wilson*

Barry Zito (# - He's only 31! Pretty please?)

AAA:

Alex Hinshaw* (#)

Osirios Matos*

Kevin Pucetas

Billy Sadler*

Sergio Romo*

AA:

Tim Alderson

Madison Bumgarner (#)

Henry Sosa

Waldis Juaquin*

Jesse English* (#)

Ben Snyder* (#)

Scott Barnes (#)

Edwin Quiarte*

Wilamin Rodriguez* (#)

Clayton Tanner (#)

Would a package centering on Merkin Valdez (who has legit closer potential) be enough to get Johnson?

What about a package centering on Sanchez and Alderson? Enough for Zimmerman?

Thanks in advance for your comments!

Why is everyone surprised?

tedfordfan — Sat, 16 May 2009 14:36:29 -0000

The vitriol over Brian Wilson is, to me, quite honestly, shocking.

Honestly, what were people expecting? Over the past year, we've all laughed (good-naturedly) about his being an "all-star", knowing that he had a WHIP around 1.5. We laughed about the fact that he walks almost a batter an inning and gave everyone a heart attack every time he came to the mound. And we laughed that he'd eventually regress and blow some saves.

So why is everyone freaking out when we've been laughing (because he gots SAVEZ!!!) that this day has been coming for almost a year?

Deeper Prospectin'

tedfordfan — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:20:38 -0000

Though I appreciate the optimism surrounding our hitting prospects (I did, after all, author the fanpost trying to cheer everyone up a few weeks back), I wonder if it is sustainable. Thus, I decided to look a bit deeper at the stats. Yes, yes - I know - small sample size. But I thought I'd take a look and see if there was anything interesting.

Now I am, by no means, a super-stat guy. For that, go to Chris (aka, Xanthan - or 00110101110111000101010101001 among friends). But I do know a little bit and thought I'd share what I found out. I got the stats from www.firstinning.com. If you know that these stats are unreliable or know of a better site for getting these stats, please let me know.

Would someone please give guidelines for what is average in each of these stats? Here is what I general look for (although you have to look at all the stats in conjunction with one another):

K% > 20% is bad.

BB% > 10% is good.

LD% > 20% is good.

BABIP = .12 + LD% (roughly)

ISO > .200 is good.

Here are the stats:

Name (BB% K% ISO BABIP LD%)

Angel Villalona (2.3% / 14% / .244 / .438 / 18%)

Nick Noonan (9.6% / 28.8% / .209 / .500 / 17%)

Buster Posey (17.9% / 16.1% / .283 / .441 / 20%)

Conor Gillaspie (20% / 16.4% / .091 / .353 / 14%)

Roger Kieschnick (6.1% / 24.5% / .066 / .344 / 24%)

Brandon Crawford (9.8% / 23.5% / .279 / .464 / 7%)

Thomas Neal (9.1% / 36.4% / .108 / .450 / 24%)

Ehire Adrianza (8.6% / 14.3% / .096 / .200 / 8%)

Wendell Fairley (14.8% / 33.3% / .087 / .143 / n/a)

Jackson Williams (20% / 23.3% / .083 / .412 / 19%)

John Bowker (17.4% / 15.2% / .079 / .355 / 24%)

What jumped out at me:

- Pretty much all of the above hitters have been lucky with balls put into play. The only exceptions are Kieschnick, Adrianza, (probably) Fairley, and Bowker.

- Kieschnick is hitting the ball hard. He has contact issues (high K%) but is drawing a few walks (although I expected more). I think the power will come. I'm surprised, because I wasn't very high on him.

- I was high on Thomas Neal, but he's been luck with balls in play (although he has at least hit the ball hard when he makes contact), is striking out a ton, not hitting for power, but drawing a few walks. Pick it up, Tommy.

- Bowker is in the same boat as Kieschnick, but is drawing a lot more walks and striking out way less than he has in the past. Long live Bowkermania!

- Brandon Crawford is getting absurdly lucky on balls put into play. He's not making solid contact and is striking out a bit too much - although his walk rate is decent. Noonan and Villalona are also getting luck in balls put into play, although they are at least making pretty consistently good contact. On the plus side, all of them are showing excellent power, and Noonan is drawing way more walks than he has in the past (although his is striking out a lot more as well)

- Buster Posey is awesome, but a tad lucky.

- If Jackson Williams keeps it up, he'll be a very good backup catcher to Posey for the next decade.