SB Nation User Blog: tedfordfan

Giants' Fan - Trade Inquiry

tedfordfan — Mon, 25 May 2009 14:05:22 -0000

Given the fact that the Giants have lots of quality pitching and no hitting; and the Nats have quality hitting but no pitching, they are logical trade partners. I know the value of the Giant's arms, but want to know more about what Nats fans think about their bats. Specifically, I want to know the value of two: 1) Nick Johnson and 2) Ryan Zimmerman.

I know, I know... there's no way you're going to trade Zimmerman. I get that. I just want to hear your thoughts on his value relative to what the Giants have.

For your convenience, below is a list of young Giants pitchers you may or may not be interested in. By no means is this list exhaustive, but I've listed the pitchers that I think actually have value and, for the most part, don't want the Giants to trade (with one notable exception). Relievers are denoted with an * and lefties with a #.

ML:

Tim Lincecum

Matt Cain

Jonathan Sanchez (#)

Merkin Valdez*

Brian Wilson*

Barry Zito (# - He's only 31! Pretty please?)

AAA:

Alex Hinshaw* (#)

Osirios Matos*

Kevin Pucetas

Billy Sadler*

Sergio Romo*

AA:

Tim Alderson

Madison Bumgarner (#)

Henry Sosa

Waldis Juaquin*

Jesse English* (#)

Ben Snyder* (#)

Scott Barnes (#)

Edwin Quiarte*

Wilamin Rodriguez* (#)

Clayton Tanner (#)

Would a package centering on Merkin Valdez (who has legit closer potential) be enough to get Johnson?

What about a package centering on Sanchez and Alderson? Enough for Zimmerman?

Thanks in advance for your comments!

Why is everyone surprised?

tedfordfan — Sat, 16 May 2009 14:36:29 -0000

The vitriol over Brian Wilson is, to me, quite honestly, shocking.

Honestly, what were people expecting? Over the past year, we've all laughed (good-naturedly) about his being an "all-star", knowing that he had a WHIP around 1.5. We laughed about the fact that he walks almost a batter an inning and gave everyone a heart attack every time he came to the mound. And we laughed that he'd eventually regress and blow some saves.

So why is everyone freaking out when we've been laughing (because he gots SAVEZ!!!) that this day has been coming for almost a year?

Deeper Prospectin'

tedfordfan — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 12:20:38 -0000

Though I appreciate the optimism surrounding our hitting prospects (I did, after all, author the fanpost trying to cheer everyone up a few weeks back), I wonder if it is sustainable. Thus, I decided to look a bit deeper at the stats. Yes, yes - I know - small sample size. But I thought I'd take a look and see if there was anything interesting.

Now I am, by no means, a super-stat guy. For that, go to Chris (aka, Xanthan - or 00110101110111000101010101001 among friends). But I do know a little bit and thought I'd share what I found out. I got the stats from www.firstinning.com. If you know that these stats are unreliable or know of a better site for getting these stats, please let me know.

Would someone please give guidelines for what is average in each of these stats? Here is what I general look for (although you have to look at all the stats in conjunction with one another):

K% > 20% is bad.

BB% > 10% is good.

LD% > 20% is good.

BABIP = .12 + LD% (roughly)

ISO > .200 is good.

Here are the stats:

Name (BB% K% ISO BABIP LD%)

Angel Villalona (2.3% / 14% / .244 / .438 / 18%)

Nick Noonan (9.6% / 28.8% / .209 / .500 / 17%)

Buster Posey (17.9% / 16.1% / .283 / .441 / 20%)

Conor Gillaspie (20% / 16.4% / .091 / .353 / 14%)

Roger Kieschnick (6.1% / 24.5% / .066 / .344 / 24%)

Brandon Crawford (9.8% / 23.5% / .279 / .464 / 7%)

Thomas Neal (9.1% / 36.4% / .108 / .450 / 24%)

Ehire Adrianza (8.6% / 14.3% / .096 / .200 / 8%)

Wendell Fairley (14.8% / 33.3% / .087 / .143 / n/a)

Jackson Williams (20% / 23.3% / .083 / .412 / 19%)

John Bowker (17.4% / 15.2% / .079 / .355 / 24%)

What jumped out at me:

- Pretty much all of the above hitters have been lucky with balls put into play. The only exceptions are Kieschnick, Adrianza, (probably) Fairley, and Bowker.

- Kieschnick is hitting the ball hard. He has contact issues (high K%) but is drawing a few walks (although I expected more). I think the power will come. I'm surprised, because I wasn't very high on him.

- I was high on Thomas Neal, but he's been luck with balls in play (although he has at least hit the ball hard when he makes contact), is striking out a ton, not hitting for power, but drawing a few walks. Pick it up, Tommy.

- Bowker is in the same boat as Kieschnick, but is drawing a lot more walks and striking out way less than he has in the past. Long live Bowkermania!

- Brandon Crawford is getting absurdly lucky on balls put into play. He's not making solid contact and is striking out a bit too much - although his walk rate is decent. Noonan and Villalona are also getting luck in balls put into play, although they are at least making pretty consistently good contact. On the plus side, all of them are showing excellent power, and Noonan is drawing way more walks than he has in the past (although his is striking out a lot more as well)

- Buster Posey is awesome, but a tad lucky.

- If Jackson Williams keeps it up, he'll be a very good backup catcher to Posey for the next decade.

Fight the Pessimism

tedfordfan — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 14:31:31 -0000

I'm not the most optimistic guy in the world, and when it comes to the Giants, I habitually see the worst. But after yesterday's collective freak out of epic proportions regarding the 25 man roster, I was genuinely surprised at the general attitude.

Compared to where we were at the end of spring training last year, we have improved tremendously. Our players have played well and seemingly every player important to the future of the Giants has improved and given us nothing but hope for the future. Consider:

- We have a real Cy-young award winner and 3 of the top-10 K% starting pitchers anchoring our rotation all of whom are 25 or younger;

- Pablo Sandoval decided to impersonate Vlad Guererro at the plate and looks like he can be a passable defender at both catcher and 3B;

- Fred Lewis looks like a good regular in LF;

- The corpse of Travis Ishikawa was raised from the dead and remembered how to hit;

- Burris is looking more and more like an adequate ML second baseman;

- Schierholtz is finally on the big league team;

- Brian Wilson emerged as an All-Star closer and now Merkin Valdez seems to be completely healthy and throwing like his old self;

- We have one fewer year left on Zito's contract;

In the minors, over the past year:

- We've added the second best catching prospect in all of baseball who has indicated nothing other than that he'll be a stud in his limited play so far, as well as several other interesting prospects through the draft and international free agency;

- Madison Bumgarner became a top-10 prospect, showed that he can be absolutely dominant and Tim Alderson also showed that he can be really, really good; In fact, multiple prospects from the 2007 draft has done very well and taken major steps forward;

- Both Sosa and Juaquin seem to be putting it together (at least this spring) after injuries;

- We actually added a viable bullpen arm through the Rule-5 draft;

- Hector Sanchez had ANOTHER great year in the Dominican, showing power and patience while switch hitting as a teenaged catcher, demonstrating that he has no business in the kiddie league YET AGAIN and should have been brought to this country where he could be reunited with his adoptive father, who's proud and biased, but come on - he should be PROMOTED PEOPLE!

Also, our GM, whom pretty much everyone irrationally hates with vitriol and passion (note: I do too), has consistently done the following:

- Made the most of our draft picks, using them to add serious talent to the system and not shying away from high price tags;

- Made a premium acquisition on the international free agent market;

- Signed several minor league free agents that will provide actual depth for the big league team while playing in Fresno (Medders, Miller, Guzman, Phelps...)

In short, he's added a lot of talent to the organization in just the ways we have always wanted him to - draft, international free agency, Rule-5, and milb free agents.

There are still pleanty of problems (Rowand, Zito, Sabean, Boulder Head, etc.) but there are, for the first time in years, a TON of reasons to be happy.

So, please, be happy. Thank you and have a nice day.

Giants release Dave Roberts

tedfordfan — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:27:06 -0000

Giants release Dave Roberts

From Baggs. Surprising that it came this early.

Most talented affiliate

tedfordfan — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 13:35:16 -0000

I was wondering what teams will have clusters of minor league talent this year.

As a Giants fan, I'm extremely excited to see how the collection of prospect in San Jose in the Cal League perform in April/May. It seems that the Giants brass doesn't like sending top prospects to AA Connecticut in the Eastern League due to the cold weather. Thus, word is that the following prospects will start off in single A San Jose:

C Buster Posey

1B Angel Villalona

2B Nick Noonan

3B Conor Gillaspie

OF Roger Kieschnick

OF Thomas Neal

SP Madison Bumgarner

SP Tim Alderson

Probably short stays for Posey, Bumgarner and Alderson, and possibly for Noonan and Gilaspie if they start off well.

There are another bunch of interesting prospects that could be assigned there as well, including:

SP/RP Henry Sosa

SP/RP Waldis Juaquin

SP Scott Barnes

SS Brandon Crawford

If you're anywhere near a Cal League affiliate, get out to see San Jose when they come to town early in the season. By June, I have a feeling Connecticut will be a hot ticket.

Fans of other teams - which affiliate has the most talent in a single place? Which teams will be most interesting to follow, especially early in the season?

Who's the #1 prospect?

tedfordfan — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 16:14:38 -0000

Buster Posey or Angel Villalona?

Buster Posey

Pro: He's extremely athletic, and profiles as a GG defender at a premium defensive position. He was ranked as one of the top 5 overall hitters in college this year. He profiles as perhaps a bit better than Jason Kendall in his prime. Has good plate discipline and some pop. Upside is perennial all star.

Con: His bat, while above league average, isn't going to be a cornerstone bat for a championship lineup - more of a #5 or 6 hitter than a #3 or 4. Although athletic, is raw defensively at the most demanding defensive position - has to learn how to call games and handle pitching staffs.

Angel Villalona

Pro: Bat is described as "special". Terms like "ungodly" and "immense" used to describe his power. Is putting up fairly good numbers (especially power numbers) as the youngest player in the Sally League playing against people an average of 4-5 years older than him. A true clean-up hitter. Signed w/ the Giants for $2.1M, but other teams offered more than that. Athletic for such a big kid. Profiles as Andres Galaraga in his prime. Upside is multiple all-star appearances.

Con: Limited defensively, probably to 1B and will never be a superior defender. Unknown (simply due to his age and lack of experience) if he will develop sufficient plate discipline or cut down on his K numbers sufficiently to post high averages.

Would love to get your thoughts on who should be ranked #1. Feel free to add to and/or disagree with any of the pro/con assessments above. Fire away...

Paradox

tedfordfan — Fri, 02 May 2008 20:43:45 -0000

As the Gigantes and their pitching staff leading the league in walks gets ready to face Pedro Feliz and his swing at anything style, we're left to wonder...what will happen when a Giants pitcher faces Pete Happy? Which is the greater force at work here?

To get more specific, what will happen when Zito pitches to Feliz? Will the world explode? A portal to hell open up in Philadelphia? Demons fly back into hell as fans throw batteries and beer bottles at them?

Any theories you all might have would be greatly appreciated.