Decent amount of new stuff on my site I'm trying to get running at BlueJaysAnalysis.com but traffic is still pretty slow. Really interested in what other people think about Carlson so I decided to throw this one up here...

After spending two seasons in which he made 142 appearances with the Blue Jays pitching out of the bullpen it took until August 17th forJesse Carlson to make his season debut with the Jays last year. The delay didn’t have anything to do with an injury either, Carlson had made 45 appearances for the teams Triple-A affiliate out in Las Vegas.

Part of the reason might have been his dreadful 5.46 ERA in April and May, although even that mark is misleading because in that same time he struckout 19 batters in 22 innings while walking an entire 2 batters and yielding just a single homerun. He ended his time in Vegas with a 4.24 ERA and 3.93 FIP thanks to walking a scant 1.94 batters per nine which left him with a nice 3.91 strikeouts per walk ratio.

Why the lefty even started off in Las Vegas in the first place is a bit of a mystery. Carlson was twenty-nine at the start of last season and just one season removed from an excellent 2008 campaign that saw him post a 2.25 ERA with solid secondary numbers in 60 innings of work. His work in 2009 wasn’t as impressive, his Ks/9 IN dropped from 8.25 to 6.78 which caused his FIP to rise from 3.80 to 4.00 despite a static home run rate and a drop off in walks per nine from 3.15 to 2.79.

His ERA did spike to 4.66 but it only would’ve taken a quick look at his FIP and secondary numbers to see he probably wasn’t as bad as 2009 or as good as 2008.  Carlson wasn’t given a chance to prove that however. 2011 is a new year and Carlson is still a Jay, still healthy and most importantly, still left handed.

The projected Jays bullpen is currently occupied by seven righties and a lefty who pitches like a righty, David Purcey. Carlson however does have more effectiveness against lefties with a career FIP of 3.72 vs. a 4.48 mark against righties. He only strikes out 6.78 lefties per nine innings(7.70 vs. righties) but does an excellent job of avoiding the long ball(.67 HR/9 IN) and free passes(2.66 BB/9 IN) to lefties.

The Jays most expendable right hander looks to be Casey Janssen and Carlson would fit in nicely with Octavio Dotel and Shawn Camp in middle relief. John Farrell’s Red Sox bullpens always had a solid lefty option to turn to in the middle innings and David Purcey looks more like a long man than anything else. The Jays should think about taking Carlson north this spring instead of sending him back out to Vegas again.

This can also be found on BlueJaysAnalysis.com and Bleacher Report...

Mike Napoli was a member of the Blue Jays just long enough for most of the teams writers and fans to get familiar with his capabilities and salary situation and come to a conclusion as to where he would fit in with the club. Napoli seemed to fit as the teams primary DH which caused a chain effect with the rest of the position players.

All that needs to be revisited now though as Napoli has already been spun to the Texas Rangers for reliever, and potential closer, Frank Francisco. He is the latest new arm to a bullpen that will be stocked with new faces come Opening Day. The Jays have already added Carlos Villanueva, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Chad Cordero this off season and figure to welcome back Jason Frasor and David Purcey as well. Francisco is the fifth arm added and he also figures to be the best of the bunch as well.

Francisco has been about as consistent as you could reasonably expect from a relief pitcher over the last four seasons. He's made no less 51 appearances in any of those four seasons and has been particularly effective the last three seasons. Since 2008 he's struckout at least 10.25 batters per nine innings and has put FIPs of 3.18, 3.34 and 3.12 in those three seasons.

After struggling with walks early in his career he's only given up 2.74 and 3.08 free passes per nine innings the last two years. The end result has seen his ERA range from 3.13 to 3.83 to 3.76 the last three years. He also brings along the reputation of being someone who can handle closing duties, how overrated that sort of thing is always up for debate,  having saved 25 games in 29 chances back in 2009.

Francisco also figures to be cheaper than Napoli by a couple million dollars or so. Although, that's not a big deal when you figure Napoli was part of a deal that saved the Jays 70 million dollars in future payroll obligations and the simple fact that Napoli projected to provide more value than Francisco, thus justifying the increased cost of employment.

Alex Anthopoulos did address the Jays seeming abundance of relief help added this off season by stating that he wants a deep and veteran bullpen to help ease the burden on the young starting rotation. Indeed, the Jays rotation as currently constituted won't send anyone to the mound over the age of 26. It's tough to argue with that logic but it's also tough not to wonder if the bullpen really needed another arm and if the team would've been better off keeping Napoli.

The loss of Napoli also changes the outlook of the Jays lineup and roster construction. Just two days ago he looked to be the primary option at DH with Adam Lind at first and either Jose Bautista at third and Juan Rivera in left or Bautista in right and Edwin Encarnacion at third.

That's still probably the case and Bautista is probably slightly better off in right than third. But now if Encarnacion is going to play third they have a hole at DH. The only good thing about a hole at DH is that finding a DH is easier than finding a third baseman to push Encarnacion back to DH where he'd probably be better off in a perfect world because his defense is lacking.

Again, as mentioned here, the Jays might be dead set on keeping Encarnacion away from playing third. If that is the case, barring another trade, their only option at third is Bautista. This would allow the Jays to see what Encarnacion can do with the bat while keeping him away from what he clearly cannot do, play something resembling average defense. And finding a corner outfielder isn't as easy as finding a DH but it's still easier than landing a third baseman in late January/early February.

The Jays options for another outfielder were covered a few days ago here, but now that they suddenly might need a DH let's take a look at some of the remaining free agent options.

The biggest name left on the market, at any position, is Vlad Guerrero who spent last season with the Texas Rangers. Vlad enjoyed a nice bounce back season with the Rangers hitting .300 with a 5.4 percent walk rate, .196 isolated power and 29 homers in 643 plate appearances. By keeping him off the field he was healthy enough to play in 152 games, his highest total since 2006.

He, unlike Napoli or even Encarnacion, would be strictly a DH at this point in his career. He'll also be 36 but he's been a very consistent hitter and his production last year showed that he can't be written off just yet as a productive hitter. Vlad has never hit below .295 going all the way back to 1997 and has had an ISO lower than 2010's .196 just once in that same time. But there's always a first, or second, time for everything and if his average and power slip he doesn't offer much else to provide value. He hasn't walked much the last two seasons posting on-base percentages of .334 and .345 despite being, basically, a .300 hitter the last two years.

The Jays could also use their low risk, high reward approach to bullpen building and take a flyer on Hank Blalock. He was last seen  in 2010 getting just 69 trips to the plate for the Tampa Bay Rays and putting together a .297 wOBA. That's nothing to get excited about but from 2007-2009 in just over 1,000 plate appearances he had a .230 ISO and 47 homers to go with a .262 batting average and a .313 OBP. It's been a while since Blalock was both productive and playing everyday but with a low financial commitment he'd be worth a look.

The bottom line is that the loss of Napoli for Francisco stings but if Napoli was primarily going to DH and give up time at first to Adam Lind and time at catcher to J.P. Arencibia then replacing him won't be all that hard. They could commit some money to Vlad or go bargain shopping for Blalock or even Willy Aybar for that matter.

The decision on Bautista's spot in the field still dictates how they round out the roster but there are still options at both DH and the outfield worth exploring.

This article has also been hoared out on Bleacher Report and my new site bluejaysanalysis.com, I'd ask you to checkout the new site but you'd only be able to re-read this for now...

Now that the Vernon Wells trade has indeed been accepted as reality and praised across the board by almost everyone associated with the Toronto Blue Jays it's time to look at the biggest issue with the team that has yet to be resolved. That is where Jose Bautista will take up his primary residence in the field for the upcoming season. The decision has implications towards filling out the seemingly only remaining spot on the Jays roster, as far as position players is concerned.

The Jays roster as presently constituted is set at first and second base, shortstop, center field, catcher, and left field. That is if several assumptions are made based on the construction of the roster and various statements made about each player. It's a given that Aaron Hill will man second, Yunel Escobar will take up short, and Rajai Davis will patrol center with Travis Snider on one side or the other. It also seems safe to assume that Adam Lind is going to be given every opportunity to take over at first base and J.P. Arencibia is going to get the bulk of the time at catcher.

That leaves Mike Napoli and Edwin Encarnacion as the primary DH options and Napoli has shown to be the better of the two right handed batters, leading to the assumption he'll get the bulk of the at-bats. That Encarnacion was brought back under the premise of no longer being allowed to play third base he becomes the right handed bat option off the bench. Joining him on the bench will be backup catcher Jose Molina and one of either Mike McCoy or John McDonald as the utility infielder.

That leaves one spot open for another position player. The Jays could put Bautista at third and sign another outfielder to go along with Juan Rivera or put Bautista in right, Rivera on the bench and sign a third baseman. Deciding on where to play Bautista at this point in the off season has almost as much to do with who is available to play where Bautista isn't as where Bautista would be better utilized.

Let's tackle where he'd be better off first, then take a look at the options to fill in where he isn't. The one certainty is that Bautista's bat should be good enough to deserve the bulk of the playing time at either spot. Bill James projects Bautista to hit .251 with a 13 percent walk rate and a .258 isolated power that would spit out a solid .373 wOBA. James is also buying Bautista as a thirty plus homer candidate projecting him to hit 34 in just over 600 trips to the plate. A performance like that would do just fine at either third or right field.

The only question then is where is he better off defensively? The cynic would say neither as Bautista hasn't wowed anyone at either spot, anyone including TotalZone and UZR. At third he's ranged from a -12 to a -6.7 UZR in widely varying innings totals from one season to the next. In right he put up a +20 in 2009, albeit in just 286 innings, and a far less impressive -8.3 in 982 innings last season. The defensive metrics aren't perfect but they don't paint a pretty picture either.

Bautista does have one undeniable skill from right field, his arm is considered to be above average in terms of gunning down baserunners. The Arm portion of UZR backs this up rating his arm at 8.7 runs above average between '09 and '10.  With Davis patrolling center this season Bautista's range figures to hurt the team less than it did with Wells in center. His arm offers plus defensive value in the outfield, not enough to make him above average overall but it is something. It's just enough to think he'd be better off, all things being equal, in right field.

All things of course are rarely if ever equal and that's the case when it comes to finding someone to take up the spot Bautista won't be in. Looking at the talent presently on the roster there is no one outside of Encarnacion who has any significant time playing third, and that has been a painful experience to endure from a defensive standpoint. It's possible that Encarnacion could return to putting up .350+ wOBA seasons like he did with Cincinnati back in 2006-2008. Again, turning to Bill James projections we find him pegged to do just that with a .258/.335/.477 batting line good for exactly a .350 wOBA.

Earlier in the off-season resigning Edwin seemed like a waste of money and a roster spot but now with Fred Lewis and Vernon Wells gone there's a more of a need for Bautista in right and there's no one left on the free agent market that projects to produce better at third than Encarnacion. The catch though is his bat HAS to be better than it's been since he joined the Jays because his defense is going to drag down a lot of his production.

If the Jays front office is too terrified of another edition of what's been deemed the E5 Experience in 2011 the only solution, barring a trade, is to put Bautista at third. Andy Laroche was the only intriguing option to fill third but he inked a minor league deal with the Oakland As today. With the loss of Brad Emaus to the New York Mets via the rule five draft there isn't a single option in the minor league system to take over third either.

Putting Bautista at third means putting newly acquired Juan Rivera in left field. Rivera struggled at the plate last year hitting .252 with a 7.3 percent walk rate and his lowest ISO since 2002 checking in at .156. That added up to a less than reassuring .314wOBA. Throw in that he's played in over 130 games in a season just once and will turn 33 next year and it starts to make Encarnacion at the hot corner look a little better.

As mentioned above however, the Jays have an open spot to play with and there are a couple interesting outfield options still on the market to look at. First, the Jays could go and get Ryan Church for next to nothing and platoon him with Rivera. Church is a lefty with a career wOBA of .344 against righties and is consistently rated as an above average fielder as well. He struggled overall last year coughing up a .273 wOBA but before that he was consistently an average to slightly above average hitter.

Rivera doesn't necessarily need a platoon partner though, he's handled both righties and lefties well in his career. Church like Rivera has never played a full season leaving it more likely they'd wind up with a whoever's healthy plays kind of platoon.

The Jays could also entertain the thought of bringing in Lastings Milledge. Not just because he's a cast off from the Pirates like Church and Laroche but because despite his well travelled, well documented major league career he'll be just 26 on Opening Day. There's certainly a host of negative occurrences that have to happen for a talented young man like Milledge to have burned through three organizations by the age of twenty-five and find himself without a job at this point in the off season.

That being said, Alex Anthopoulos has made a habit of building his bullpens with low-risk, high-reward players the past two off seasons. Maybe he'll try and turn the same trick with a troubled, young and talented outfielder like Milledge. Turning to Bill James once last time, his system projects a robust .284/.347/.413 triple slash from Milledge should someone decide to take the plunge and bring him in.

When all is said and done it really comes down to what the Jays prefer, Encarnacion at third or Rivera/Church/Milledge/Somebody else in left field. Anthopoulos could still make a trade too to solve the puzzle. Bautista is probably ever so slightly better off in right, which, shockingly, seems to leave taking a gamble on Encarnacion at third the best bet.

This is a repost from a piece I originally wrote for Bleacher Report, wanted to share it on here as well...

Toronto Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos pulled off the seemingly impossible tonight when he managed to trade Vernon Wells to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim forMike Napoli and Juan Rivera. It's almost inconceivable to think that Wells and his $86 million contract could be unloaded on anyone, without, as has been reported, sending ANY money along with Wells to his new team. The implications of this deal for the Jays are far reaching into many aspects of the team both on the field and off in both the long term and the short term.

The extent of the effect of this deal won't be completely known for a while, as it leaves several questions to be answered. But let's start with what we know and what is good for the Blue Jays. This is a complete and utter coup for Anthopoulos in terms of the financial benefits to the team. As it's well known, Wells is set to make $86 million over the next four years, which is an annual salary of $21.5 million on average. To rid themselves of this debt the Jays took on about $11 million in guaranteed money between Rivera's guaranteed $5.25 million and the $6 million or so Napoli is expected to make next season.

That's it. Neither player is owed any money beyond 2011 meaning if they both moved on for 2012 the Jays would save 75 million dollars over the course of the next four seasons. That is a substantial amount of money, and if Anthopoulos has the ability to allocate some or all of that money elsewhere in the next couple of off seasons, the Jays will be in a far better position to go into the free agent market and aggressively make moves to fill players in around their developing talent already residing in the system.

This could influence the on going negotiations with slugger Jose Bautista, who is currently slated to head to arbitration if the two sides can't work out a deal. Anthopoulos would be better off resisting the urge to lock up Bautista long term just because he has more money to play with. The financial windfall for the team doesn't change the fact that Jays should avoid paying for Bautista's 2010 for the next three or four years if they don't think it's going to be a repeatable performance level.

The loss of Wells, barring another move, opens up centerfield for Rajai Davis whom the Jays picked up earlier in the offseason from the Oakland Athletics. Davis is easily the best defensive outfielder the Jays have and the only one the team would feel comfortable sending out to center in 2011. Davis doesn't walk a lot, but on a team without a clear-cut leadoff hitter, if he's in the starting lineup he's probably closest to fitting the bill. On his career he's a .281 hitter with a .330 on-base percentage and just a .102 isolated power.

He's not going to equal Wells output at the plate, but he's a defensive upgrade and a terror on the basepaths, who can easily and effectively steal 50-60 bases a season. He's also not too far removed from a 2008 season in which he hit .305 with a .360 OBP with a .354 wOBA, 41 steals, and above average defensive work. Davis isn't a star, but the Jays could certainly use his defense and base stealing ability.

There's quite a bit to be sorted out in the Jays infield, and that will influence the outfield playing time as well. In theory, Bautista would be the everyday third baseman leaving Travis Snider to play right and the newly acquired Juan Rivera to patrol left, his usual spot with the Angels. But that could change, and Bautista and Snider could get the bulk of the time in the outfield corners with Rivera fwilling the role of fourth outfielder. There could also be a more flexible arrangement that blends the above two scenarios.

A healthy Juan Rivera as the Jays everyday left fielder wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. His defensive numbers have fluctuated all over the place in the last three seasons making it tough to pin down his defensive contributions. Compared to last year's primary left fielder, Fred Lewis, Rivera's defense doesn't look to be all that much worse, and could possibly even be better.

Rivera's bat took a step back last season with a below average wOBA of .314 just one year after a 2009 that saw him produce a .348 wOBA thanks in part to solid power(25 homers, .191 ISO) and a .287 batting average that gave him a passable .330 OBP despite walking just 6.3 percent of the time. Much to the delight of Jays fans who got accustomed to most of the lineup not walking while striking out a ton, Rivera has only struckout in 12.5 percent of his at-bats in his career, solidly below the league average in most seasons.

Bill James' 2011 projection for Rivera has him hitting .270 with a .324 OBP and a .174 ISO. Not earth shattering numbers. James also projects Rivera to only get about 400 plate appearances in 120 or so games based on the fact he's never played more than 138 games in any season including just a combined 103 games in 2007 and 2008. The so-so bat and potential health issues definitely increases the urge to put Bautista in right, Snider in left and Rivera on the bench for 2011.

The Bautista conundrum of where to play him was about the only thing this trade didn't help. Mike Napoli played 67 games behind the plate and 57 at first last season. Naturally, since he can swing a bat he's also an option at DH, and a good one at that. Napoli has put up some big offensive numbers in his career. He owns a 11.1 percent career walk rate and has power to spare with a career ISO of .234. In both 2008 and 2009 he hit 20 homers in each despite playing in just 78 and 114 games, respectively.

Napoli will be 29 for the whole of next season and should bounce back from an off-year in 2010. Nothing less than 20 plus homers and 20 plus doubles coupled with an on-base percentage around .360 should be expected of Napoli with a solid amount of playing time. The question is, where is that playing time going to come from, and at who's expense?

The door for J.P. Arencibia to be the full-time catcher appeared to be wide open for him in the coming season. That isn't as clear now, though. Napoli isn't going to be mistaken for an excellent defensive backstop, but his bat is well above average behind the dish and he can provide positive stats from that spot. However, the Jays have to take a look at what they have in Arencibia this season and make strides in deciding whether or not he's their catcher of the future. If he isn't, there's at least a couple more catchers coming up the pipeline that could be, and they'll need their shots to prove themselves too.

If Napoli isn't going to take anymore than 12-20 starts away from J.P. and Molina, he figures to be a great option to pair with Adam Lind at first. Napoli hits right-handed and Lind is a lefty, which quickly leads to the possibility of a platoon. A similar problem arises here at first, with Lind being signed to a long term deal the Jays. The Jays need him to play a lot, both to work on his defense at first and see where his true talent lies against left-handed pitching.

That leaves the DH spot as the optimal place for Napoli to start on a regular basis. Edwin Encarncacion looked to be the Jays best option there, but Napoli is the superior hitter, and they are both righties. The addition of Napoli should relegate Edwin to a bench role. With Lind primarily at first, Arencibia behind the dish, Napoli at DH, and Bautista and Snider in the outfield corners, the Jays are really only left looking for a third baseman. Or they could put Bautista at third and sign another outfielder.

One trade wasn't going to solve everything on and off the field, but this one provides instant as well as long term payroll flexibility. With Davis playing everyday in center, and Napoli hitting bombs wherever he plays, the Jays are probably better overall on the field in 2011 as well. Alex Anthopoulos had been impressive with his moves up to this point, but this deal is nothing short of incredible. He'll be hard pressed to ever top this move, and no one in Toronto will forget about it for a long time to come.