Carlos has respectable numbers against RHP. .259/.368/.505  However his stats against LHP is worse than terrible. .107/.233/.280

His RISP numbers are also very bad .179/.330/.403. But most of those positive numbers came against RHP. Again today we saw the Marlins bring in a LH reliever to face him and he went out on the 1st pitch with a GB to the 1B. The question is can the team compete over a season with their cleanup hitter whose splits beg the opposition to bring in LH relievers in the late innings? Is that the best we can get for $10M?

Geovanny Soto, Luis Montanez, Buck Coats, Corey Patterson and Jose Molina.

Answer: These are the only position players drafted out of high school by the Cubs who were played ML ball and are still active in  baseball. Since 1991, or in the past 20 drafts, the team has signed hundreds of players and we have had only 2 HS draftee position players who have accounted for anything of value to the team. Does this inability to transform high school hitters into legitimate major league players indict the organization's coaching staff? It seems so.

Further evidence. Currently the 4 top minor league affiliates on the Cubs have a total of 23 players with an OBP of .350 or higher. Of these, 18 are either college or JC draftees. That seems to validate that the colleges are much better at preparing their athletes than for a big league future than the Cubs.

Josh Vitters, Brian Harvey, Luis Montanez, Corey Patterson, Earl Cunningham, Derrick May, Jackie Davidson, Shawon Dunston, Vance Lovelace, Herm Segelke, Brian Rosinske, Scot Thompson and Terry Hughes were 1st round position player picks for the Cubs coming from a HS dating back to 1965. That's not an enviable record for a struggling franchise. Are we doing a poor job of selecting players or is our coaching inferior to other organizations. Perhaps it's a combination. However, it should be a priority in restructuring the team as we move into the future. Obviously it hasn't been since Jim Hendry became the baseball guy for the Cubs.

Last year we watched as Quade was tossed a bone in the midst of a disastrous season under Piniella. Sweet Lod had his moments as manager but it was clear to everyone that his time was up. Rather than go outside the organization, Jim Hendry brought him into the management and the team responded with a sterling 24-13 finish. By comparison, the team's fundamentals improved and our pitchers were great. We went 19-10 in Sept/Oct and the ERA was 3.24, more than 2 points lower than July. Z was 5-0 with a 1.10 ERA and even Coleman was 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA. In a period of 11 games mid Sept, we didn't allow over 3 runs in any games.

However our team BA was a season worst in Sept at .234. We outscored our opponent by a mere 5 runs over that period. Clearly our starting rotation was superb, but our hitters were still doing poorly. Ultimately Quade was given a contract to manage and, given the record under his stewardship, even many Sandberg supporters were accepting of the Q regime.

Many Cub fans are wondering how the team could play so well the last year under Quade and so poorly this year. Were there warning signs missed? Is Mike fool's gold. Let's look at a few things that had me shaking my head last year. Players were brought up from the minors but played sparingly with the exception of Barney and Hoffpaiur. Castillo only had 15 plate appearances. Remember the day Castro sat because of bad decision? Quade explained that by saying he thought standards were different for veterans and rookies. Perhaps that explains his apparent reluctance to hold some veteran players to a standard that would improve the team.

Last year's starting pitchers were incredible under him. Marmol had 15 saves and between Marmol and Marshall, they allowed 4 hits in 91 plate appearances. The truth is, we never had the opportunity to watch Quade handle the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen.

This year we're getting the real Mike Quade and the honeymoon is over. Sandberg is gone and this year isever for playoff hopes. Zambrano has called out his team mates and publicly gave the finger to his manager by breaking a bat after being told it was a bad idea the day before. The team is in fee fall.

My question is...could the era of Mike Quade been avoided by looking deeper into his performance last year. It's clear to me that he defers to the veterans and that's OK with a good team. But this team is bad and trending terrible. The ball is in Hendry's court. Will he intervene? Will Tom Ricketts get involved in baseball operations. And now that Z has opened the door with his tirade, local media sees blood in the water. They'll be attacking until a major move is made. The Sword of Damocles hangs over Wrigley.

I ran across this YouTube video with Joe Ricketts discussing the purchase of the Cubs. He is very open about the process and his involvement. However I found it very insightful into the character of his son Tom and the relationship between the two. Now I must be honest and tell you that I like Tom. But that is as a person, not as a leader charged with the future of the Cubs organization.

It seems that the elder Ricketts comments paint Tom as a party animal who wasn't very accountable to his father while he was in Chicago and going to college. He never told his parents he wasn't graduating on time and seemed very naive in negotiations with the Tribune. It apparently took him 10-15 years to make his business profitable. Is that a timeline we can expect for the Cubs? In the end I came away with the impression that TR was more suited to replace John McDonough than Jonh Henry.

With the trip to Boston and the play of this year's team, again the organization's philosophy has been questioned. Despite the emergence of Castro and Barney, many people question the infrequency of taking walks. In the past we've seen the majority of focus being placed on our prospect pitchers. While we've seen a belief that Patterson and Pie were All Stars in the making, neither achieved antwhere near the hope we were told was almost inevitable. And with the hiring of Wilkens, our drafts have changed from signing big pitchers to going after position players with up the middles skills. However, most of those guys seem to have poor inclinations to take walks and work counts. So, at this moment, we have a major league roster that is last in taking walks and first in allowing walks. Is this an unfortunate abberation of a result of a system that has little respect and/or ability to recognize the value of getting on base via the base on balls.

Rather than look at any specific player, I thought it might be revealing to look at the minor league team and see how they compare to other teams in their league in certain areas that indicate important skills. The numbers shown are our team's rank in a particular area. Here are the number of teams in each league in our system. Iowa AAA 16 teams, Tennessee 10 teams, Daytona 12 teams and Peoria 16 teams.

Lets start with pitching.WHIP ranking always seemed to me the most statistical number to value a pitcher's true worth. Ks indicates power arms. BBs allowed signify pitchers too often behind in the count and unable to go deep into the game. ERA is an appropriate common indicator. Runs allowed is the ultimate indicator which judges a team's pitching success in the end.

Iowa

WHIP #15 1.78  K #8  7.3/gm   BB #14 4.3/gm   ERA #15 7.08   Runs #15 7.3/gm

Tenn

WHIP #9  1.51  K #7  6.7/gm   BB #10 4.1/gm   ERA #4  4.00   Runs #5  4.5/gm

Daytona

WHIP #2  1.24  K #1  8.0/gm   BB #6  3.4/gm   ERA #1  2.86   Runs #2  3.6/gm

Peoria

WHIP #4  1.21  K #16 6.5/gm   BB #8  3.2/gm   ERA #2  3.01   Runs #3  3.6/gm

On to hitting and the numbers. First is the obligatory OPS. Then OBP, BB most to fewest, K most to fewest, HR, SB amd finally runs scored.

Iowa

OPS #7 .811   OBP #9 .353   BB #15  3.2/g   K #1  7.8/g   HR #9 .94/g   SB #15 .50/g   R #7 5.7/g

Tenn

OPS #1 .857   OBP #1 .366   BB #7   3.2/g   K #9  6.0/g   HR #1 1.2/g   SB #5  .76/6   R #1 6.2/g

Daytona

OPS #1 .769   OBP #3 .343   BB #8   3.2/g   K #8   7.3/g   HR #1 .89/g   SB #3  1.0/g   R #1 5.5/g

Peoria

OPS #6 .697   OBP #5 .329   BB #15  2.8/g   K #16  6.0/g   HR #9 .50/g   SB #11 .77/g   R #4 4.7/g

Obviously our best perforing teams are Tenn and Daytona, as evidenced by their outstanding records. However, all teams are still allowing more BB than they are taking. And it seems like our AA and A+ teams have some decnt speed for once. Other than Iowa, we're outscoring our opponents by over 1 run per game. And, other than Daytona, our squads aren't loaded with high strikeout pitchers. Iowa is a mess, particularly their pitching staff. As an organization none of our teams are in the upper half of the leagus in BB taken and all of their staffs are among the worst in walking opponents. 

The Cubs had remarkable split differentials against RHP (.689) and LHP (.805). Those numbers rank 13th and 1st in the NL. That helps explain our dysfunctional results last year versus right handed starters and relievers. Surprisingly our LHB (.677) were even worse than our RHB (.695).

If we look at last year’s results, there were only a few RHB that did very poorly. Here are their sOPS+ numbers.

Nady  87

Theriot  83

Barney  50

Baker  -12

Our under performing LHB included:

DeWitt  79

Hill  40

And while the addition of Pena will add a LHB (.881 career vs LHP), he will be replacing Lee whose (.762 last year vs LHP).

If we are to compete, we must improve our performance against RHP this year. When you add to our problems by having us face a right handed setup man or closer, it partly explains our poor results in later innings.  The gap between scoring 4.28 RPG and surrendering 4.80 must be addressed by improving our production in 2011 against the RHP.

There is no doubt that everyone here WANTS the Cubs to win every year. Obviously that hasn't happened and isn't about to happen. And let's admit, many of those people are VERY knowledgeable fans. Now while I'll acknowledge that a baseball team can't be run by following populist opinions, there are few decisions made which draw 70%-80% opposition that end up well. So, whenever we're told we don't have all the so called "source" information and therefore we should merely be optimistic, it is met with much disagreement.

If a business has been successful for years, the stockholders are willing to accept the decisions of the Board of Directors. However, those same stockholders are unwilling to support a Board that is inconsistent. Unlike Cub fans, they can sell their stock or vote out the Board members. We Cub fans have no such options. Most of us are in for life.

The Cubs are a major franchise with very inconsistent results. Since 1984, whenever the team played .500 or better, only twice did their record improve the following year. Is that acceptable for us? If it seems many of us are unwilling to merely trust the people at the top, can anyone blame us? This franchise should never be in a position to accept a competitive team and a rebuilding process. And to suggest we should support  the man in charge for 8 years who hasn't brought us more consistently winning teams seems unreasonable.  The Cubs are still going into 2011 with a tinkered roster. That's factual. We'll probably be ranked to finish 4th. And while we may be better, why should this franchise  be rated so low? This organization seems too willing to be good. Good isn't good enough. Only great is. As Quade has stated, the players will be held accountable. Likewise, we fans have every right to hold the organization to the same standard.

Looking forward to 2011, just what can we expect to see that’s going to improve the team? From a position player starting roster, we will probably see only a change at 1B. Is there any likely replacement for Lee that will make this team competitive? The rotation will also change little. Dempster,  Gorzelanny, Wells, Silva and Zambrano seem to be the core that will return. If we sign Lilly in the offseason, we’re back to square one. If not Lilly, will it be Diamond or another pitcher from our minors? Either way, does anyone expect our rotation to duplicate the number of quality starts they’ve completed in 2011? Probably not.  Marmol will close with Marshall the setup guy and Cashner in the 7th if he isn’t turned to starting.

Let’s say Ricketts allows Hendry to dump salary. Silva and Zambrano are the only logical impact players likely to be dumped. The rest, Fukudome, Nady, Baker, Fontenot and Hill, are already insignificant to the failure that plagues this team.

So honestly, next year’s team appears to be essentially the team that we’re watching struggle to win games. Hendry can tweak the middle of the bullpen and add a few bench guys but what we see now is what I expect us to see next year. Can Hendry really make 3 or 4 solid moves that can make this group a contender in 2011? Please enlighten me because we’re not even close to being competitive. 

How bad are we? The numbers tell us all we need to know. Here are some of the key statistics that limit this team. We’re 4-16 in the opening game of the last 20 series we’ve played. When we’ve played the easiest in the majors thus far, that’s a terrible number. And it starts with the leadoff hitter in the opening inning. Our guys have a collective OBP of .218 from that spot including only 4 walks and no SB. As a result we’re 2nd worst in runs scored and 4th worst in allowing runs in the opening inning.

When we are in a close game and get into the 7th, we’re the worst team in both leagues in allowing runs in the 7th inning. That usually leads to the fact that we’re a major league worst in close games winning only 36%. The best team, the Phils are at 61%. We're 2nd worst in SB and 8th worst in allowing SB. Finally, we have a team WHIP of 1.41 while our offense produces only 1.31. When you add the worst defensive team and the league worst OBP with RISP to the equation, that spells terrible.

Mr. Hendry, please explain what 3-4 tweaks that can possibly make a difference. This is a team that is horribly flawed, it’s not a young team on the ascent. Our key players like Ramirez, Soriano, Lee are on the downside of their career. If you can put anything close to a contending team on the field next year without adding a hugh payroll bump, I’ll vote a lifetime contract for you. You broke it but it’s a shame you won’t be able to fix it.

We’re all aware that the Cubs offense is the team’s Achilles heel. We’re not a team famous for comeback victories. Through 89 games, we’ve come from behind only 12 times and the largest comeback was 3 runs. The Cubs have been held to 2 or fewer runs 36 of the 89 games played so far. Their record in those games is 3-33 or 30 games under. On the contrary, Cubs pitchers have held opposing teams to 2 or less runs 25 times. However, because of our poor offense, we’re only 19-6 in those games or 13 games over .500. If our offense was only league average, it would result in an improvement of 17 games. We'd be 6 games over .500 and in the thick of the race.

It all starts in the first inning. The Cubs have scored 31 runs in the first, the fewest in the NL. On the contrary, we have given up 61 runs, 13th of 16 teams. So how have our starters done in their 1st innings. Here are the numbers :

Pitcher                 Games  Runs

Lilly                            15        5

Silva                           17       6

Wells                         18      16

Dempster                 18      11

Gorzelanny              12      10

Zambrano                  9       13

Obviously, only Lilly and Silva  have hit the ground running in the first inning.

As for the offense, the numbers are self explanatory. Theriot has lead off the game 52 times and Fukudome 28. In the 80 games, they have been on base only 16 times, 13 hits and only 3 walks. Between them they’ve scored only 7 runs, league worst.

What would you do differently if you were manager? Nothing is an option.

When Zambrano recently went off the reservation and was subsequently suspended, Tom Ricketts was with his family in Africa. Many Cub fans were very critical of his trip and were incensed that he wasn't available locally to issue a statement about the events.

 

Now that Tom has returned, he's been available for interview as he travels to all the minor league teams in the system to meet with the managers, coaches and players. One of those interviews was with Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald. 

 

For those that felt Ricketts failed them and the team, I'd strongly recommend they read the article and see if their opinion has changed. For everyone else, I also recommend the article. It speaks well of the character of Tom and his family. And while we all can have our opinion of the family's role as owner of the Cubs, it seems their character  is admirable.

Playoff odds are now less than 2%. And while I respect those who refuse to believe we can not turn the season around, the odds tell us everything a prudent man or woman needs to know. We have a very good pitching staff. However, we rank 26th out of 30 teams in runs scored. To make matters worse, we have a losing record against the 3 teams beneath us that we have played. Let's look at some glaring statistics that might help identify where we have problems.

We're 6th in DP hit into and 30th in SB. That should tell us we are terribly slow and that Lou is not using the hit and run very often. We have the 5th lowest sOPS+. And even with Castro and Colvin, we have the 7th highest batters age. The wind blows in 58% of the time at Wrigley and blows out only 26%. Yet we have built a team of bangers.

"We have a fly-ball hitting team and it doesn't really help when the wind is blowing in a lot," Piniella said. "It helps the other team, too, we understand that.

"(But) we don't have the quickest team, so getting the ball up into the air and letting it sail out into the stands or over the stands is good for us."

This should tell us that our reliance on power hitters isn't appropriate. Who constructed this team and why? It reminds me of a basketball team built upon large immobile front court players. The other problem is that those guys demand larger salaries while having a positive impact only 26% of the time.

There is a stat that identifies success in certain situations. The splits are remarkable for the Cubs. In high leverage games we rank 26th. In medium leverage we're 27th. Yet in low leverage games, we rank 4th. Can you say choke?

Two  years ago the Reds hired Walt Jocketty. He has helped build a team that leads the Central and has scored the 4th most runs in the majors. He has replaced five position players since he arrived. Their team payroll is $68M versus $146M for the Cubs. Obviously a good GM can work wonders for a team. Contrary wise it shows how a bad GM can cripple the team. Hendry is that bad GM. And while Lou has lost all respect as a manager, the real fault lies with JH. This team needs to embark on a new vision of athletic players who can run, field and hit line drives.

Let's see what we have this year. The only two guys that have really been given a chance are Theriot and Fukudome. Ryan is .277/,314/.303/.617 in 2010. But since he was moved to 2B he has plunged to .221/.264/.229/.492 for 34 games and his sOPS+39. Worse yet, these are his numbers leading off the game. .174/.191/.217/.409 and sOPS+21. Add to that his zero SB and 1BB in 47 games. So while Lou apparently doesn't know what he can do. he might ask someone in the stats department if those are decent numbers.

Fukudome's numbers aren't much better batting #1. .206/.313/.294/.607 with 2BB and again zero SB. So how does this impact the team? We've been outscored 50-28 in the 1st inning. That's a 22 run deficit in the beginning. For the season we've been outscored by 26 runs, almost all of them accumulated by inning 2. When we trail going into the 2nd inning, we have a 2-16 record. Incidentally, we're outscored in the 7th inning 56-33, but that's another matter.

Bruce Miles suggests we move Soriano back to leadoff. Lou tried Colvin the other day. Some suggest Soto and others Fontenot. My opinion leans to getting someone at the top with good speed. But I also want someone who plays every day and isn't a power hitter because we've had our share of problems in the middle of the lineup. Those parameters suggest that Castro should be given an extended trial leading off. His numbers are .272/.327/.360/.687 with 12BB/19K. He's only been sent to steal twice but that's a reflection of his usual position ahead of either the pitcher or Lee. His speed is being wasted in those spots.

The biggest problem many claim is that he's a rookie and we don't want to put too much pressure on him. Ok. Let's look at some of the rookies who were put at #1 and succeeded in the past. Rickey Henderson and Suzuki both began their careers at the top. How about recent players? Pierre. Furcal, Nyjer Morgan, Dexter Fowler, Ellsbury, Hanley Ramirez and Denard Span. Unless there is credible evidence elsewhere, I can't imagine Starlin can't handle the job. The reality is that unless we find someone on the roster capable of leading off in 2011, we'll have to buy or trade a valuable player to win games. And anyone with a memory can tell you how successful we were getting Roberts or Furcal.

While I don't claim to have any insider information, I'd like to present some reasons why I believe Lou has been told it's time to fish or cut bait. Henry's presence on the road trip, while not significant would be exactly what would occur if he were thinking of making a managerial change. Of particular interest were his comments about the team's record. Basically he said we need to get to .500 soon, hopefully by the end of this road trip. He also said we'd be expected to play better over the next two weeks.

Now Jim seldom sets deadlines. As a courtesy to Lou, he seems to be saying he has 1-2 weeks to get this club headed in the right direction. That is the model of a GM issuing a deadline. Add to that Lou's semi-coherent post game conference. He appeared to be more than usually flustered by the play of the team and have no answers to what he can do to improve the performance.

Now look at the Castro scenario. On 4/29, Hendry indicated Starlin wasn't ready for Wrigley. One week later Castro was called up in what seemed to be a desperate attempt to turn things around. Yesterday we saw Cashner brought to Chicago. Despite his seasoning as a starter, he was suddenly moved to late inning relief from the right side. Wednesday Zambrano wii again start after an ineffective stint as set up man. By the way, is it any coincidence that Z was suddenly lights out in relief after his poor performances before he was assured he was headed back to the rotation?

Those events by themselves are insignificant. Cumulatively they seem to me to point towards a do or die option for Lou. Certainly the players also seem to believe Piniella is on deathwatch. Neither Lee or Ramirez or Dempster have stood up in strong support of Lou and taking their share of blame. So, has Jim Hendry hung the sword of Damocles over Lou's head or am I merely wishing the signs portray what I seek.

Today in the 9th Dotel entered the game. RHB have a BA of .158 vs Dotel. LHB are .458 against him. Lou bats Fontenot for Marmol and he grounds out. Castro takes a walk and Fukudome who batted for Dempster triples. Now we have the tying run on 3rd and only one out. Theriot who had struck out the only two times he's faced Dotel is allowed to hit. Why not a LHB. Well, it seems we're out of LHB because we used one to pinch run with two outs. Is that good managing knowing that Dotel will be pitching in the 9th?

Theriot is 5-32, .156  with only one walk leading off the game. Is there any justification that he remain as #1 in the lineup?

Ramirez has an OPS+ of 28 and Lee has an OPS+ of 78. Is there justification they remain in the middle of the lineup?

Fukudome has a .419 OBP, Soto .459 and Castro .464. Does it make sense to get them as many AB as possible? Do they belong at the bottom of the order?

Soriano has an OPS of 1.024, Soto .954 OPS, Byrd .976 OPS and Fukudome .960 OPS. Wouldn't it be wise to hit them towards the middle?

Baker has a .212 BA,  Nady .174 BA and Hill .214 BA. How often should they start?  Granted that Hill is an excellent defensive catcher. However, he has an OPS+ of 48 with the Cubs.

What can you do, Lou? Follow the numbers. Tell the guys making multimillion dollars per year to check their egos in the locker room. No, you can't hit for them. But you can put the players that have been producing in a better spot than you have. It's not like sending a man to the moon. It wouldn't hurt to bring back Tracey while he's red hot and also Fuld for Nady. It's embarrassing to watch us send a disabled RF out and expect the best simply because he's had success in the past. I doubt we have a chance at even a wild card spot, but each day you throw your hands up in the air and plead you are powerless enables this leaderless team to under perform.  Obviously a happy clubhouse is over rated. But at least don't bail on the players like you did in Tampa Bay. By the way, that team now has the best record in the majors.

The Cubs team BA at .271 and OBP of .341 is 5th highest in the league. According to Baseball Prospectus we have faced the 2nd worst pitchers in both leagues. So the obvious question should be why are we scoring so few runs so often. We've scored 4 or more runs 17 times. Our opponents have scored 4 or more 16 times. Now we come to an amazing disparity. We are 1-16 in those low scoring games. However, our opponents are 8-8.

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Obviously we can all understand when a team has been mathematically eliminated. However, we all have different ideas about when we feel a season is over and it's time to look ahead to the following year. Since 2000 the Cubs have had only 1 season where they won 90 games. St. Louis, on the other hand, has had six, including two over 100. While the rest of our division has only one season with 90 wins, you would suspect our win totals should have been higher.

The wild card seems to add a possibility to win fewer games and sneak into the playoffs, but the win total for wild card teams since 2000 include only two with less than 90 wins, one at 89, the other at 88. So essentially we will probably need close to 90 wins to either win the division or enter as a wild card team.

With that in mind, let's assume the Cubs will need a minimum number of 88 wins to make the playoffs. Now the question I propose is this. At what point would you essentially suggest the season was over to make the playoffs? I know it's possible to win 15 in a row, but let's be honest. Is it reasonable to expect any team to go on a streak like that?

There is no right or wrong answer. We all look at a Cub season from an emotional bias. None of us want them to be eliminated. We all hope miracles happen. But how many times have we been surprised by a mid season comeback that propelled us into October baseball?  I'm not talking about miracle teams that surprised us out of the gate but teams that struggled and suddenly caught fire.

How many games under .500 would make you think it was unreasonable to make the playoffs? Not impossible, merely unreasonable.

For all intents and purposes, our playoff chances are gone. Our mathematical odds are now down to 1%. The common belief is that our offense was the cause of our failure. And while there certainly was a fall off from 2008, our numbers are actually league average by most widely accepted standards.  Here are some comparisons showing the 2009 team number, league average and 2008 team average,

                                    2009 Cubs   2009 league avg.   2008 Cubs

OPS                                 .741                    ,741                      .797

Runs/game                     4.37                   4.44                       5.31

BAbip                                .294                   .298                       .321

Slg                                    .412                   .410                        .443

Power/Speed Num        68.6                    95                          118.1

BA/RISP                           .245                   .268                        .278

Clearly, our team has not hit the ball like last year, and that is the comparison many of us make. However, we are at league average in most categories. The one huge drop has been in team speed, or the use of team speed. Measurably we are worst in the league whereas last year we were well above average. As an example, we have not had a stolen base the past 15 games and have been caught 4 times.

The one question we do have to ask is whether this team is a .500 team offensively or we can expect a significant bounce back to above average performance. Finally, I have not yet tried to evaluate the numbers for our pitching staff. I'll publish that later.

Lou seems convinced that it's always better to use a LHP against LHB and a RHP ve RHB. The truth is that many  Cubs players do not perform according to the book. Let's take a look at some of those guys and see what their numbers are.

Gregg vs RHB .858 OPS in 127 PA    sOPS+ 133      vs LHB .578 OPS in 107 PA  sOPS+ 48

Marmol vs RHB  .701 OPS in 133 PA  sOPS+ 100     vs LHB .545 OPS in 116 PA  sOPS+ 46

Heilman vs RHB  .817 OPS in 140 PA sOPS+ 125    vs LHB .760 OPS in 102 PA  sOPS+ 98

Guzman vs RHB  .565 OPS in 115 PA  sOPS+ 56      vs LHB .676 OPS in 77 PA    sOPS+ 73

We can all see that only Guzman fits the mold of using a righty-righty matchup. Clearly the other 3 are considerably better against LHB. When we dig down to the rest of the bullpen we also have some striking numbers.

Samardzija vs RHB .936 OPS sOPS+ 156      vs LHB  .896 OPS   sOPS+ 133

Marshall  vs RHB .808 OPS  sOPS+ 107         vs LHB  .620 OPS   sOPS+ 76

Grabow  vs RHB  .689 OPS  sOPS+ 80            vs LHB  .712 OPS  sOPS+ 104

Of the remaining bullpen only Marshall follows the script. Samardzjia shows no evidence that he can get either RH or LH out. It begs the question to ask why he isn't at AA learning how to pitch. As for the disparity between perception versus reality in our pen, I would hope that Lou one day takes into accout what our guys are doing rather than what he wants them to do.

The Sunday game against Washington marked season highs for the offense. The thing that struck me as remarkable was the willingness of the hitters to go with the pitches. Even Brenly noted the effectiveness of players like Soriano. Well, where is that approach now? Sori is missing pitches by 3 feet again and even Lee is missing the outside pitch.

Jake Fox is wasting away on the bench of a team that desperately needs hitting. And guess what Lou, he can be the left hand batter you long for. He hits right handed pitchers at a .344 pace. Hill is hitting .202 against them. By the way, Lou, have you noticed how much Hill has stepped it up lately? After going .048 in June, he is .191 in July. Start Fox behind the plate. If he screws up, we'll see it quickly enough. Lou underestimated his defense at 3B. Maybe the same thing is happening at catcher.

Who told Jim Hendry that Baker resembled DeRosa? Baker serves no purpose on this team. We are better served by bringing back Scales or even Fuld. Finally, the need for bats outside the roster seems foolish while we sit Fox and Hoffpaiur.

and most all his offense including his hitting instructor. After back to back losses to Atlanta when the offense scored 2 runs on 13 hits while drawing only 2 walks, Lou was asked all the usual questions about the team. As the 15th best team in the league on offense, had he noticed any problems or discussed any impending changes? Well, says Lou, in his inimitable style, why don't you talk to the players. And while you're at it, talk to Von Joshua, because that is his responsibility. I guess Piniella must be missing his pal Perry, who was forced out by powers above his head.

But after reading the flame out, I agree with him. Just what have our sports reporters done to hold the players accountable by asking them the very questions we ask here on a daily basis. Why is it that everyone in baseball knows how to pitch Soriano, but the player hasn't made any effort to adapt? Why is it that Soto ballooned up over the winter? And what has that done to his game? Why has Fukudome been so hot and cold while his plate performances have at times seemed comedic in execution. When Lee was in a tailspin, what was he doing differently? What goes through Zambrano's head at times, if anything? Why hasn't he learned what works for him and what destructs?

The questions and comments are endless on BCB, yet when have we heard any of our sports reporters pose those questions to the players? Lou, maybe you have something there.

but he refuses to discuss the issue with him. It seems that Piniella didn't give Sori adequate notice that he wouldn't be starting Wednesday. According to Alfonso, he expects at least 24 hours notice when he isn't starting. It seems that as a result of the "failure to notify of intent to bench" he was forced  to prepare for the Wednesday game. Mr. Soriano went on to explain that on his "off days" he doesn't get ready. He did fail, however, to discuss the keen advantage his preparations have had on his .230 BA this year.

Unfortunately the reporter never asked Soriano if his .150 BA with RISP might also be as a result of not knowing who and when any of his teammates might be in scoring position when he came to the plate the following day. He also did not discuss if he felt disadvantaged when opposing pitchers failed to advise him how they were prepared to pitch to him the following day.  Alfonso's agent refused to disclose any pertinent clauses in his contract which might give cause for a grievance but it is believed he had been in touch with the players Association.

In the interest of fairness, it is difficult for those of us making less than $18M per year to understand the pressure of preparing for the next day of work when we don't know the schedule. And it is particularly true for someone who recently called out a fellow player for giving less than 100% to the team. As the saying goes, don't judge another person until you've walked (or struck out ) a mile in their shoes. All I can say is thank you, Mr. Soriano. You have at last resolved any doubts I had about the respect you expect from me in the future.

For those of you who felt that our pitchers haven't seemed to shut down the opposition by getting their first batter out, you were right. As a team, our pitchers have allowed the first hitter they faced to get on base over 40% of the time. And the worst part is that the number for relievers is even worse. The worst offender is Patton who has 15 appearance and has allowed his first batter to reach base 60% of the time. However some of our key relief staff have also had terrible performances. Cotts, our one time only loogy 53%, Heilman 53%, Guzman 39%, Marshall 40%, Marmol 43% and Ascanio 39%. Among our starters the worst are Zambrano 41% and Lilly 36%. That number ranks worst in the league where the average is 32%.

But here is the real problem. As a team our pitchers have allowed the opposition a .324 OBP. So over a game's performance we're average. But we're constantly in a hole by allowing that first batter to reach base and often score. The fact that Lou loves to bring in numerous relievers rather than keeping them on the mound after they've settled in means he's working against the averages. The question is why do our pitchers have such a big problem taking the mound. Aren't they warmed up sufficiently? Is the bullpen coach doing his job? Is it just a lazy mental approach to entering the game? I don't have the answer but it is a problem that haunts this bullpen and must be addressed.

It's time to accept that Soriano needs to be put on the DL. In his past 100 plate appearances he is hitting .154 with an OBP of only .230 with an OPS of .505. To continue to keep him in the starting lineup and actually hitting #1 is idiocy. While there are numerous weak links in out lineup, none demand redress more than Sori. For the year he is hitting only .150 vs LH. Last year his numbers against LH was .351/.404/1.114.  Something is seriously wrong with Alfonso. If Lou continues to ignore an obvious problem, he risks the 2009 season. And while I don't claim to understand if the issue is physical or mental, Piniella needs to deal with the problem immediately.

I hope that Fox's time in LF today was a prelude to a change in the starting lineup starting  tomorrow. Fox proved he wasn't inept in LF. Move him to #5 behind Lee and it will allow the team to move Theriot or another high OBP hitter there. Do it now Lou. We're very close to dropping out of contention as it seems the Brewers are about to start another hot streak. Soriano doesn't belong on the field right now. His defense is terrible and he isn't in a bad slump that will correct itself. Let him heal on the DL and try to save the season.

Looking through the box score tonight for Iowa I noticed that Jacob Quirin Fox was missing from the lineup. Since he had played in the last 4 games and went 2-5 last night, it seemed odd. Joshua is already in Chicago and has met with Piniella and Hendry. Maybe VJ talked them into bringing Fox up early. It has been rumored that he was slated to return when the Cubs began needing a DH next Tuesday in Detroit. Is it possible Fox headed to Chicago rather than OKC?


This certainly isn't a rumor but it isn't unreasonable to think the Cubs might look for some big any lumber. Maybe he's coming here to allow Trammel to continue working with him at 3rd. Hell, he might even be Joshua's assisant hitting instructor. Any sightings out there?

I attempted to break down the stats for each key position player in an attempt to find when each is at a general advantage or disadvantage according to their performance this year. While I’m certain there will be criticism of “small sample” numbers in some cases, it is what it is so far. After taking a look at the comparisons by position, I tried to suggest where one player might be preferable against a certain type pitcher or starting either day or night or home or away.

Obviously certain players can be on “hot” or “cold” streaks, but that is generally overlooked because the splits presume we should put each player in a best position to succeed.

1B- Lee is the clear cut choice. As a #3 batter he is 173/224/436. Batting #4 313/415/954. Keep him as cleanup.

2B-This position is currently our weakest link. Our team sOPS+ here is a miniscule 59. The fact that we moved Fontenot from 2B to 3b only accelerated the problem. If we leave Fontenot at 3B, the choices are Scales, Blanco or Miles. Miles is 188/235/460 vs RHP. Scales 188/235/798 vs LHP. Also Miles is 130/231/448 with RISP. He also is terrible as his at bats continue against the SP. 087/125/255 the 2nd time against him and 091/231/322 the 3rd time. His only positive numbers are in day games 271/340/694. Scales may have had his 15 days of glory. Currently he is 132/267/556 the last 28 days. His positive is vs finesse pitchers (less than 24% BB or K).  Blanco has insufficient numbers to draw any conclusion, but he is definitely the best defensive 2B. My opinion is to move Fontenot back to 2B and platoon him with Miles against a LHP. Send Scales back to AAA.

SS- Theriot is an obvious starter at SS.

3B- Bring back Fox and put him at 3B. We can make defensive changes in the later innings if needed. Fontenot is having a terrible time vs LHP. Fontenot vs LHP 133/176/410.

LF- Soriano is the only real option but he has some terrible splits. Vs LHP 150/261/561. With RISP 133/286/575. 2nd time vs SP 143/222/528. 3rd time vs SP 192/271/540.

CF- Fukudome is repeating his 1st year fall from grace. His last 28 days 204/353/668. Johnson is 324/405/891 vs LHP. Against Flyball pitchers 435/481/1481. Clearly we have a platoon situation.

RF- Bradley has some strange splits. His first time thru against the SP 088/162/309. 2nd time vs SP 407/543/1321. Vs RHP 174/303/629. Away games 169/297/569. While it seems unlikely that Bradley will be platooned Lou may be wise to sit him against some RHP and use Hoffpauir or Fox vs RHP, particularly on the road.

C- Soto is the only real choice. Hill has reverted to and easy out since his strong start in May. Hill is 4/29 the past 2 months.

Finally, the only clear batting slot for Bradley is #3. At #3 302/362/804. #4 152/364/636. #5 179/273/636. Feel free to criticize. I’m just looking for answers like the rest of us. Something has to change. Waiting for Aram to come back isn’t a viable solution for me.

The first thing that jumps out is his current WHIP is 1.52 against 0.93 last year. He has already been in 30 of our 54 games. That projects to a season total of 90 games. Since the 70’s only 1 pitcher has appeared in more than 90 games. That was Solomon Torres for the 06 Pirates. That year his WHIP jumped from 1.18 to 1.46. Two years later he retired. In 2007 he missed 85 games due to injuries.

Marmol is somewhat reminiscent of Willis with a violent delivery. Dontrelle has gone from Pitcher of the year to hanging onto a roster spot on the Tigers by his fingernails. His BB numbers have spiked while his ERA is unforgiveable.

What worries me is Piniella’s insistence on using Marmol so much that he is ruining one of our long term assets. It seems that in Lou’s last hurrah, he may be focusing on short term goals to the detriment of the team’s future. 

While everyone is well aware of our problems this year, a look at the numbers might indicate the depth and extent of our problems. Our R/RA last year was 245/174. This year it is 187/189, a remarkable decline of 73 runs or 1.8 RPG. Last year we were +10 games versus a .500 record in 2009.

The biggest declines in individual performance come from 3 hitters based upon OPS. Last year at this time vs the current performance.

Lee .922/.730

Soto 1.051/.578

ARam .909/Fontenot .667

When you add in the newcomers and their abysimal seasons it turns terrible.

Bradley .643

Miles .521

Freel .200

The only additions performing decently are:

Scales .861

Hoffpaiur .821

On the recent disasterous road trip our BB/K was 10/52. We were 2/27 with RISP. I suspect the upcoming homestand is critical to our chances this year. The team we've seen recently is playing without a head or a heart lately. This team lacks a spark. The only viable addition I see is going after DeRosa who might well remind this team that winning is a team function not a group of players wearing rally caps.

Since the game last Tuesday against the Reds where the team took 7 walks and won 7-2, the team has reverted to the days of Dustball. we've lost 5 of 6. In those games we drew only 9 walks and. After the start of the season when we drawing over 5 per game and winning, our numbers have dropped off the table.

We're not getting deep into other team's bullpens and we're constantly behind. Our BA with RISP is .230 and that includes a game we went 7-18. We're 13th in the league in pitches seen. While it's still very early, it's time to go back to basics.

In yet another interview, Mr. Selig provides further evidence that he has sunk into the abyss of irrelevancy. "Am I sensitive about people saying we ignored this [steroids] problem?" Selig asked. "You bet I am, and it's wrong, it's just wrong." When Judge Landis and his tough stand on gambling after the Black Sox scandal was mentioned, here is the keen analytical response from Bud.

"I have two things about this, No. 1—he died. The second part of it is he didn't have labor unions to deal with. This is currently a part of labor law in America, it is a subject of collective bargaining. In all fairness, I am always sensitive about doing things, forcing things, where baseball loses, and then I've weakened the office and the legal structure."

It appears that Sam has grown tired of his bankruptcy filing for Trib and is discussing a potential buyout of Starwood Hotels. His Equity group already owns 8% of the company which declined 59% in value last year. Perhaps he now feels that bankruptcy is a profitable business plan.

In any case, this points to the neccessity of getting a good stable new ownership group that won't use the Cubs as a financial investment as opposed to a public trust that makes money. How Zell's interest in Starwood will impact the Cubs sale is beyond me but thus far we've been lucky that the team's ability to operate on the field hasn't seemed to have suffered.