SB Nation User Blog: tharr

The numbers don't lie. We are a .500 team.

tharr — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:43:55 -0000

For all intents and purposes, our playoff chances are gone. Our mathematical odds are now down to 1%. The common belief is that our offense was the cause of our failure. And while there certainly was a fall off from 2008, our numbers are actually league average by most widely accepted standards. Here are some comparisons showing the 2009 team number, league average and 2008 team average,

2009 Cubs 2009 league avg. 2008 Cubs

OPS .741 ,741 .797

Runs/game 4.37 4.44 5.31

BAbip .294 .298 .321

Slg .412 .410 .443

Power/Speed Num 68.6 95 118.1

BA/RISP .245 .268 .278

Clearly, our team has not hit the ball like last year, and that is the comparison many of us make. However, we are at league average in most categories. The one huge drop has been in team speed, or the use of team speed. Measurably we are worst in the league whereas last year we were well above average. As an example, we have not had a stolen base the past 15 games and have been caught 4 times.

The one question we do have to ask is whether this team is a .500 team offensively or we can expect a significant bounce back to above average performance. Finally, I have not yet tried to evaluate the numbers for our pitching staff. I'll publish that later.

Perception is not reality

tharr — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 20:17:39 -0000

Lou seems convinced that it's always better to use a LHP against LHB and a RHP ve RHB. The truth is that many Cubs players do not perform according to the book. Let's take a look at some of those guys and see what their numbers are.

Gregg vs RHB .858 OPS in 127 PA sOPS+ 133 vs LHB .578 OPS in 107 PA sOPS+ 48

Marmol vs RHB .701 OPS in 133 PA sOPS+ 100 vs LHB .545 OPS in 116 PA sOPS+ 46

Heilman vs RHB .817 OPS in 140 PA sOPS+ 125 vs LHB .760 OPS in 102 PA sOPS+ 98

Guzman vs RHB .565 OPS in 115 PA sOPS+ 56 vs LHB .676 OPS in 77 PA sOPS+ 73

We can all see that only Guzman fits the mold of using a righty-righty matchup. Clearly the other 3 are considerably better against LHB. When we dig down to the rest of the bullpen we also have some striking numbers.

Samardzija vs RHB .936 OPS sOPS+ 156 vs LHB .896 OPS sOPS+ 133

Marshall vs RHB .808 OPS sOPS+ 107 vs LHB .620 OPS sOPS+ 76

Grabow vs RHB .689 OPS sOPS+ 80 vs LHB .712 OPS sOPS+ 104

Of the remaining bullpen only Marshall follows the script. Samardzjia shows no evidence that he can get either RH or LH out. It begs the question to ask why he isn't at AA learning how to pitch. As for the disparity between perception versus reality in our pen, I would hope that Lou one day takes into accout what our guys are doing rather than what he wants them to do.

Short term memory=Short term gain

tharr — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 14:44:00 -0000

The Sunday game against Washington marked season highs for the offense. The thing that struck me as remarkable was the willingness of the hitters to go with the pitches. Even Brenly noted the effectiveness of players like Soriano. Well, where is that approach now? Sori is missing pitches by 3 feet again and even Lee is missing the outside pitch.

Jake Fox is wasting away on the bench of a team that desperately needs hitting. And guess what Lou, he can be the left hand batter you long for. He hits right handed pitchers at a .344 pace. Hill is hitting .202 against them. By the way, Lou, have you noticed how much Hill has stepped it up lately? After going .048 in June, he is .191 in July. Start Fox behind the plate. If he screws up, we'll see it quickly enough. Lou underestimated his defense at 3B. Maybe the same thing is happening at catcher.

Who told Jim Hendry that Baker resembled DeRosa? Baker serves no purpose on this team. We are better served by bringing back Scales or even Fuld. Finally, the need for bats outside the roster seems foolish while we sit Fox and Hoffpaiur.

Lou is angry at reporters

tharr — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:33:19 -0000

and most all his offense including his hitting instructor. After back to back losses to Atlanta when the offense scored 2 runs on 13 hits while drawing only 2 walks, Lou was asked all the usual questions about the team. As the 15th best team in the league on offense, had he noticed any problems or discussed any impending changes? Well, says Lou, in his inimitable style, why don't you talk to the players. And while you're at it, talk to Von Joshua, because that is his responsibility. I guess Piniella must be missing his pal Perry, who was forced out by powers above his head.

But after reading the flame out, I agree with him. Just what have our sports reporters done to hold the players accountable by asking them the very questions we ask here on a daily basis. Why is it that everyone in baseball knows how to pitch Soriano, but the player hasn't made any effort to adapt? Why is it that Soto ballooned up over the winter? And what has that done to his game? Why has Fukudome been so hot and cold while his plate performances have at times seemed comedic in execution. When Lee was in a tailspin, what was he doing differently? What goes through Zambrano's head at times, if anything? Why hasn't he learned what works for him and what destructs?

The questions and comments are endless on BCB, yet when have we heard any of our sports reporters pose those questions to the players? Lou, maybe you have something there.

Soriano is angry at Lou

tharr — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:43:35 -0000

but he refuses to discuss the issue with him. It seems that Piniella didn't give Sori adequate notice that he wouldn't be starting Wednesday. According to Alfonso, he expects at least 24 hours notice when he isn't starting. It seems that as a result of the "failure to notify of intent to bench" he was forced to prepare for the Wednesday game. Mr. Soriano went on to explain that on his "off days" he doesn't get ready. He did fail, however, to discuss the keen advantage his preparations have had on his .230 BA this year.

Unfortunately the reporter never asked Soriano if his .150 BA with RISP might also be as a result of not knowing who and when any of his teammates might be in scoring position when he came to the plate the following day. He also did not discuss if he felt disadvantaged when opposing pitchers failed to advise him how they were prepared to pitch to him the following day. Alfonso's agent refused to disclose any pertinent clauses in his contract which might give cause for a grievance but it is believed he had been in touch with the players Association.

In the interest of fairness, it is difficult for those of us making less than $18M per year to understand the pressure of preparing for the next day of work when we don't know the schedule. And it is particularly true for someone who recently called out a fellow player for giving less than 100% to the team. As the saying goes, don't judge another person until you've walked (or struck out ) a mile in their shoes. All I can say is thank you, Mr. Soriano. You have at last resolved any doubts I had about the respect you expect from me in the future.

A tragic number

tharr — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 18:24:19 -0000

For those of you who felt that our pitchers haven't seemed to shut down the opposition by getting their first batter out, you were right. As a team, our pitchers have allowed the first hitter they faced to get on base over 40% of the time. And the worst part is that the number for relievers is even worse. The worst offender is Patton who has 15 appearance and has allowed his first batter to reach base 60% of the time. However some of our key relief staff have also had terrible performances. Cotts, our one time only loogy 53%, Heilman 53%, Guzman 39%, Marshall 40%, Marmol 43% and Ascanio 39%. Among our starters the worst are Zambrano 41% and Lilly 36%. That number ranks worst in the league where the average is 32%.

But here is the real problem. As a team our pitchers have allowed the opposition a .324 OBP. So over a game's performance we're average. But we're constantly in a hole by allowing that first batter to reach base and often score. The fact that Lou loves to bring in numerous relievers rather than keeping them on the mound after they've settled in means he's working against the averages. The question is why do our pitchers have such a big problem taking the mound. Aren't they warmed up sufficiently? Is the bullpen coach doing his job? Is it just a lazy mental approach to entering the game? I don't have the answer but it is a problem that haunts this bullpen and must be addressed.

Soriano needs to go on DL

tharr — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 01:05:21 -0000

It's time to accept that Soriano needs to be put on the DL. In his past 100 plate appearances he is hitting .154 with an OBP of only .230 with an OPS of .505. To continue to keep him in the starting lineup and actually hitting #1 is idiocy. While there are numerous weak links in out lineup, none demand redress more than Sori. For the year he is hitting only .150 vs LH. Last year his numbers against LH was .351/.404/1.114. Something is seriously wrong with Alfonso. If Lou continues to ignore an obvious problem, he risks the 2009 season. And while I don't claim to understand if the issue is physical or mental, Piniella needs to deal with the problem immediately.

I hope that Fox's time in LF today was a prelude to a change in the starting lineup starting tomorrow. Fox proved he wasn't inept in LF. Move him to #5 behind Lee and it will allow the team to move Theriot or another high OBP hitter there. Do it now Lou. We're very close to dropping out of contention as it seems the Brewers are about to start another hot streak. Soriano doesn't belong on the field right now. His defense is terrible and he isn't in a bad slump that will correct itself. Let him heal on the DL and try to save the season.

Where is Fox

tharr — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 03:57:46 -0000

Looking through the box score tonight for Iowa I noticed that Jacob Quirin Fox was missing from the lineup. Since he had played in the last 4 games and went 2-5 last night, it seemed odd. Joshua is already in Chicago and has met with Piniella and Hendry. Maybe VJ talked them into bringing Fox up early. It has been rumored that he was slated to return when the Cubs began needing a DH next Tuesday in Detroit. Is it possible Fox headed to Chicago rather than OKC?

This certainly isn't a rumor but it isn't unreasonable to think the Cubs might look for some ~~big~~ any lumber. Maybe he's coming here to allow Trammel to continue working with him at 3rd. Hell, he might even be Joshua's assisant hitting instructor. Any sightings out there?

Hitting splits and possible improvements

tharr — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 03:51:27 -0000

I attempted to break down the stats for each key position player in an attempt to find when each is at a general advantage or disadvantage according to their performance this year. While I’m certain there will be criticism of “small sample” numbers in some cases, it is what it is so far. After taking a look at the comparisons by position, I tried to suggest where one player might be preferable against a certain type pitcher or starting either day or night or home or away.

Obviously certain players can be on “hot” or “cold” streaks, but that is generally overlooked because the splits presume we should put each player in a best position to succeed.

1B- Lee is the clear cut choice. As a #3 batter he is 173/224/436. Batting #4 313/415/954. Keep him as cleanup.

2B-This position is currently our weakest link. Our team sOPS+ here is a miniscule 59. The fact that we moved Fontenot from 2B to 3b only accelerated the problem. If we leave Fontenot at 3B, the choices are Scales, Blanco or Miles. Miles is 188/235/460 vs RHP. Scales 188/235/798 vs LHP. Also Miles is 130/231/448 with RISP. He also is terrible as his at bats continue against the SP. 087/125/255 the 2nd time against him and 091/231/322 the 3rd time. His only positive numbers are in day games 271/340/694. Scales may have had his 15 days of glory. Currently he is 132/267/556 the last 28 days. His positive is vs finesse pitchers (less than 24% BB or K). Blanco has insufficient numbers to draw any conclusion, but he is definitely the best defensive 2B. My opinion is to move Fontenot back to 2B and platoon him with Miles against a LHP. Send Scales back to AAA.

SS- Theriot is an obvious starter at SS.

3B- Bring back Fox and put him at 3B. We can make defensive changes in the later innings if needed. Fontenot is having a terrible time vs LHP. Fontenot vs LHP 133/176/410.

LF- Soriano is the only real option but he has some terrible splits. Vs LHP 150/261/561. With RISP 133/286/575. 2nd time vs SP 143/222/528. 3rd time vs SP 192/271/540.

CF- Fukudome is repeating his 1st year fall from grace. His last 28 days 204/353/668. Johnson is 324/405/891 vs LHP. Against Flyball pitchers 435/481/1481. Clearly we have a platoon situation.

RF- Bradley has some strange splits. His first time thru against the SP 088/162/309. 2nd time vs SP 407/543/1321. Vs RHP 174/303/629. Away games 169/297/569. While it seems unlikely that Bradley will be platooned Lou may be wise to sit him against some RHP and use Hoffpauir or Fox vs RHP, particularly on the road.

C- Soto is the only real choice. Hill has reverted to and easy out since his strong start in May. Hill is 4/29 the past 2 months.

Finally, the only clear batting slot for Bradley is #3. At #3 302/362/804. #4 152/364/636. #5 179/273/636. Feel free to criticize. I’m just looking for answers like the rest of us. Something has to change. Waiting for Aram to come back isn’t a viable solution for me.

Marmol 2009 vs 2008

tharr — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 04:21:57 -0000

The first thing that jumps out is his current WHIP is 1.52 against 0.93 last year. He has already been in 30 of our 54 games. That projects to a season total of 90 games. Since the 70’s only 1 pitcher has appeared in more than 90 games. That was Solomon Torres for the 06 Pirates. That year his WHIP jumped from 1.18 to 1.46. Two years later he retired. In 2007 he missed 85 games due to injuries.

Marmol is somewhat reminiscent of Willis with a violent delivery. Dontrelle has gone from Pitcher of the year to hanging onto a roster spot on the Tigers by his fingernails. His BB numbers have spiked while his ERA is unforgiveable.

What worries me is Piniella’s insistence on using Marmol so much that he is ruining one of our long term assets. It seems that in Lou’s last hurrah, he may be focusing on short term goals to the detriment of the team’s future.