SB Nation User Blog: tharr

Houston we have a problem

tharr — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 23:40:19 -0000

Last night I was able to catch the last 3 innings of Z's no-no at a house full of Astro fans. The house was one of the few spared the numerous problems that were dealt Houston and many surrounding communities. As I watched the game it was quite obvious that the Astro players weren't on their game.

Tonight was the first time I had electricity and water and the internet. Many of their players had the same or worse problems to deal with. Now I understand the need to play the games within a certain time frame. But it seems outrageous to force the Astros to play in Milwaukee where 98% of the fans supported the Cubs. And before we tell them to just suck it up, ask yourself how you would really feel if the tables were turned.

Imagine having to leave town and your family behind without electricity and water. Since there is no electricity, there is a good chance they can't recharge the cell battery and call you or the towers aren't making the connections. Since gas is mostly unavailable how do your wife and children get to stores that are mostly unopen? Without the internet it was impossible to even know what was open or when it might even be open. For many people even the news wasn't available.

Look, I saw Z throw a great few innings, but let's not suggest the playing field was level. Somehow Selig again managed to make the wrong decision. This time it benefited the Cubs, but how long will this clueless used car salesman hold the fate of baseball franchises in his incapable hands.

Just when you thought it couldn't get worse

tharr — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 01:10:35 -0000

It didn't. We sweep our closest challenger at their place. And we showed 3 legitimate #1 starters. All this despite our closer still being on the DL. Our odds of making the playoffs are now over 90%.

So what needs to be fixed to make us better. Howry? Gaudin has a 1.54 ERA and 13K/1BB since coming to the Cubs. Eyre? He's been replaced by Cotts with a 2.57 ERA which is aboutr 2 runs per game better than Eyre's lifetime number. We seem to have some guy from Notre Dame who should be a welcome addition the rest of the years. Unfortunately Ward seems to be having a bad year and perhaps Hoffpaiur will get a call prior to 9/1.

Add to above that the Cubs are probably better suited to playing in the cold October weather with our pitchers. So, what does everyone think needs improvement for our journey to find the Holy Grail?

ISFA preparing bid for Wrigley Field

tharr — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 08:47:55 -0000

This article in the Trib discusses the most recent happenings on Zell's attempt to dump Wrigley Field on the state. The most pertinent pieces of the puzzle are:

The ISFA would spend $350M-$400M to renovate the facility. There is no mention of the timing of the improvements
The ISFA would issue bonds to finance the purchase and cost of construction. In order to get approval, the mayor, governor, aldermen and state assembly would have to agree.
Repayment of the bonds would be done through a combination of selling naming rights, rental payments and a freeze on sales tax payments generated by Wrigley over the next 30 years. No where does it mention that the taxpayers will have to make up these tax losses with increased taxes. Nor does the article mention what assurances the new owner of the Cubs has that the rent for Wrigley will remain fair.
Landmark status of Wrigley will be removed.
Zell will receive the difference between the projected revenue total and projected renovation cost.

Let's see. Zell and his friends are going to "project" revenue for a 30 year period and also "project" renovation costs. Just imagine how well those projections will be calculated. And how much was Millenium Park going to cost? Imagine hiring the Soldier Field architects to draw up plans. And finally, the property taxes paid by Wrigley will no longer exist. Who makes up the difference?

If there ever was a smell test put to Zell's plans, they'd have to evacuate the entire city. How is it that one man has so much power that political hacks are willing to screw the public?

Zell and the ISFA

tharr — Sat, 15 Dec 2007 03:33:07 -0000

Zell has gone to the governor and mayor in an attempt to get the ILFA to buy Wrigley Field. The question we have to ask is how would that affect the operations of the Cubs and the maintenance and improvements of Wrigley.

My understanding is that the property would be sold for $1. However, the Cubs would be required to essentially sign a 30 year lease to rent the property. Then Zell would be able to sell that lease and get the present value of that lease. It would seemingly give Zell considerable cash to purchase the Tribune. Thus he'll be required to borrow much less money to consummate the purchase. In addition, it would reduce the sale price of the team which would reduce the impact of capital gains tax on the Trib. On face value, that would appear to be a great deal for Zell.

There are some caveats, however. The ISFA would agree to commit $350M to improve Wrigley Field over a certain period of time. Since the majority of revenue from Wrigley will have been committed to Zell, how will they raise the $350M? Supposedly through muni bonds guaranteed by the state. But what if the revenue does not pay off the bonds? Since the state issued the bonds, ultimately they're responsible for the repayment. Suppose the cost of renovation exceeds $350M, the taxpayers of Illinois are on the hook.

Who elects the ISFA board? No one. They're appointed by the governor and mayor. So essentially they are not accountable to anyone but 2 political animals. Do you really want Wrigley Field run by politicians?

Now let's look at the possibility that the Canning group had prior knowledge of Zell's plan and support it. Why would you care? Well, the Canning group is now able to avoid the cost of buying Wrigley and maintaining the field. Instead of a $1B bid, it brings the numbers down to perhaps $600M. It also gives them deniability for the commercialization of Wrigley Field. Don't like all the new signage at Wrigley. Talk to an appointed board and see how much leverage you have.

If you enjoyed how Selig handled the steroid issue, expect more of the same from ownership put in place by him in Chicago. Keep the business of Cubs baseball in the hands of private owners who are accountable to the fans. Keep the good old boys out of our business.

Cubs current 25+ man depth chart

tharr — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 22:08:30 -0000

Here is the latest depth chart broken down by position players and pitchers. At this time there are 16 pitchers and 14 position players.

Pitchers Position Players

Zambrano 1. Soto
Lilly 2. Blanco
Marquis 3. Lee
Hill 4. Ward
Marshall 5. DeRosa
Dempster 6. Fontenot
Howry 7. Theriot
Ascanio 8. Ramirez
Marmol 9. Soriano

10.Eyre 10. Murton
11.Wuertz 11. Pie
12.Wood 12. Pagan
13.Pignatiello 13. Fuld
14.Gallagher 14. Fukudome
15.Hart
16.Lahey

Obviously some of these guys are the first to be removed barring something exceptional happening. Pitchers Ascanio and Pignatiello would be my first choices along with Pagan and Fontenot. Now unless Lahey is returned we're left with 6 starters and only 5 slots. And, if Hendry is seriously looking to add Roberts, which I think he is, then who goes?

Since Ascanio and Pignatiello are not slated to be on the 25 man roster, those are obvious choices to use for Roberts. Personally, I'd rather ship Eyre than Piggy but MacPhail seems intnt on getting younger and cheaper. Throw in Pagan or Fuld along with Murton and either Marshall or Gallagher and we don't seriously deplete the team while adding a quality leadoff man.

But now that Jim has started the ball rolling, it makes sense that he needs to balance the team. Which 5 starters are kept? And, if we go after Bedard, which potential starters are part of the trade.

In the end, there is still much tidying up to do with the roster and the Cubs Christmas stocking still has room in it.

Are some players willing to improve

tharr — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 19:17:15 -0000

Any Cub fan could have sent the Dbacks our scouting report. For the most part our players don't make adjustments. That's the trouble with veterans. They're so locked into their way of doing things they resist change. It got them where they are so continue with it.

It's not even a lack of effort but rather an unwillingness to change things. Can anyone explain how a batter can take a 95MPH pitch yard but can't bunt. The only explanation is that it's beneath him to practice bunting to add something to his abilities as a player.

Why is it necessary to style out of the box on long flies when so often they merely hit the wall? Is that in the best interest of the team? Can it be changes? Of course. Then why does Lou allow it?

Question for next year. If we are so easy to shut down, won't everyone be able to approach us the way AZ did? Are our players capable of change or are they too set in their ways? I'm confidant the Dback players are flexible. But I've seen little evidence we have that ability.

In a shortened playoff season every mistake becomes magnified. The inability of the hitters was particularly egregious. However, we saw all of those incidents throughout the season. Can we succeed unless they are changed? And, most importantly, will they be?

The biggest offseason acquisition

tharr — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 03:16:24 -0000

will be the selection of a new owner, not another overpriced free agent. Say what you will but if Selig gets his buddy in, you can count on him to follow Bud's agenda rather than that of the Cubs fans.

I feel very strongly that a purchase by current Brewer partner and best pal of Selig, Canning, would be disastrous to the franchise. We fans deserve better.

Personal observations from Chase

tharr — Fri, 05 Oct 2007 18:51:45 -0000

Please realize that my mindset is flawed after flying down to Phoenix for the games. I alternate between extreme sadness and acceptance of things as they are. Hey, it is what it is.

I've met tons of quality Cub and Dback fans outside the ballpark. However last night was a horror story in the LF bleachers. Al, if that's the way the Cubs bleachers are, no thanks. I was embarrassed by a group 6 Cub fans who either swore every other word or were busy trying to provoke some Dback fan. It was a beer and bitching fest for them. While they don't represent even a small minority of fans, they're exactly what non Cub fans remember about us. By the way, they bailed in the 8th inning.

Excuse #1. We're trying too hard.
Nope. Can't happen. We're playing at the same intensity level we've played all year. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. All season we've been a terribly inconsistent team. We have flashes of brilliance and then periods of suckiness. Color us sucky right now.

Urban Legend #1.
You need veteran experience in the playoffs.
Nope. It makes no difference whether they're young or old. What does make a difference is their ability. It's a long season and it's foolish to expect a player who had a bad year to be golden in the playoffs because he's been there before.

Last night one of the Dbacks hit a medium deep fly ball down the LF line. It ended up being caught by someone in the first row. It was eminently catchable by Soriano. He didn't come close because he dogged it. Which gets me to my final point.

Pet Peeve #1.

I am so sick and tired of baseball players styling during the game. From the Sosa hop to the Soriano reverse walkaway, it's terrible. How many times have we seen a hitter assume it was going yard and instead having to bust it just to get to 2nd. As a fan, I don't need style points. I need victories. And if a player showing off causes the team to lose even 1 game because of his narcissism, then he has to stop the practice. Baseball is a team game. If you want personal goals, go into figure skating.

Soriano needs to face facts

tharr — Fri, 05 Oct 2007 07:38:49 -0000

This from Soriano. "People don't realize that the only at-bat leading off an inning is the first one," he said. "One day [at the end of September] I had five RBIs leading off but nothing in my first at-bat."

When the season is over, I expect Piniella to sit him down and explain it's not about leading off. It's about being in the right place in the lineup to do the most good. As the #1 hitter, he is following the #7-#9 hitters. Therefore he has fewer opportunities to knock runners in.

Here are the facts for the current year:
        Plate Appearances PA with RISP    PA with Men on base
Soriano            617        120            211
Lee            650    171            298
Ramirez        558        173            297

As you can see, one's position in the batting order has a significant impact on his ability to knock in runs. It's foolish to waste a player with power to hit 30-40 HR in the #1 slot. It's time for Soriano to grow up and earn his keep.

One final comment from Sori. `If I make a good swing, I can put the Cubs up 1-0 already. If I make a hit, I can steal a base.´ Here are the facts. He has only 19 SB for the season and only 6 since the All Star game.

This and that stats Chi vs Az

tharr — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 07:42:38 -0000

Just some observations while I was looking at the two teams. Beyond the obvious information about AZ problems on offense, these are a few tidbits that might be interesting.

The Cubs scored their 2nd fewest average runs against AZ 19/6 games. However, they surrendered the fewest average runs to AZ 18/6 games. Our 3 lefties had an ERA under 2.00 against them and Marshall threw 2 excellent games at them. That makes him a good choice for long man. Zambrano did not pitch vs AZ this year. When you notice that the Dbacks have fared worst against flyball pitchers .233/.314/.705 and both Hill and Lilly are classified as such, we're in excellent position if Z can squeeze out a victory against Webb.

AZ is 18-18 since Hudson went down.
The Cubs fare very well against groundball pitchers and Webb has a 2.70 ratio. He, like Z has extreme split differences between RH .199/.244/.502 and LH .272/.342/.747. That makes the contributions of Jones and Floyd one of the keys to the 1st game.

Go Cubs.