SB Nation User Blog: the chairman211

Longhorns Defense- Play By Play Review (Very Long)

the chairman211 — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 06:59:09 -0000

We all agree the defense won the game. We heart Muschamp, we heart Earl, and so on. As I re-watched the game I decided to focus on the beautiful things, which is to say I almost exclusively watched our defensive plays. Here's what I saw. I am not trying to rip on particular players where I note apparent failures. The group as a whole played outstanding and more than a few guys had good moments to counter their mistakes. I highlighted some of the best plays as well as biggest mistake.

1st Quarter

14:54, 1st and 10- OU runs a quick screen to Murray, rightly figuring that having Bradford dump the ball early is a key in this game. Curtis whiffs a sloppy tackle which turns a 4 yard gain into 11. 1 missed tackle, -7 yards.

14:23, 1st and 10- Lamarr dodges a lineman who doesn't so much attempt a block as dive directly at his legs at the snap. Forces Bradford to throw incomplete and hits him hard.

14:19, 2nd and 10- Kheeston gets light pressure before being knocked down. It's enough to force Bradford to rush a throw out of bounds.

14:13, 3rd and 10- Texas brings five on the blitz, but Murray is wide open on the delayed release. Kindle is closest to him and appears slow to recognize the route. A DB flies in to make the tackle after an apparent 10 yard gain but badly misjudges, he flies right by and turns a 10 yard pickup into 64. Hard to read the number but it looked like Earl. Blake also badly whiffs on a sure tackle at midfield. A gain of 10 or 20 at most turns into an awful near TD. On the plus side, Aaron Williams sheds a block just in time to stop Murray from punching it in. Keenan also show good speed and hustle in making his way from the group around the first missed tackle to an assist on the stop. Terrific play by these two considering we eventually force the FG. 2 missed tackles, -54 yards.

13:45, 1st and Goal- Chris Brown gets a minimal gain, nice tackle by Kheeston.

13:18, 2nd and Goal- Bradford sets his mind to throw a fade to Broyles. Well out of bounds despite no pressure.

13:12, 3rd and Goal- Muckleroy blitzes and crushes would-be blocker Chris Brown. Bradford is forced to throw it away. FG follows.

11:55, 1st and 10- Aaron Williams pretty clearly shows blitz in the last seconds before the snap but comes through untouched to make a nice sure tackle. Nothing fancy, though I would note Aaron keeps his head up so he can see until he has the QB wrapped up rather than diving blindly. Bradford falls poorly and is done for the day.

11:15, 2nd and 24- Jones in the game, feels pressure that is not really developed and throws it away. Kindle in full rush on the left edge now as opposed the right edge as we've seen in his big hits this year. Unnamed defender doesn't block so much as dives straight at his knees (deja vu!).

11:08, 3rd and 24- Swing pass to Murray. Keenan badly whiffs a tackle, giving up an additional 6 yards which don't matter in this case. Punt follows which Aaron Williams nearly blocks off the edge.

9:41. 1st and 10- 4 yard rush for Murray.

9:10, 2nd and 6- 4 man blitz can't get to Jones, 20 yard completion. Chykie may have given the WR too much room but the defense at this point seemed intent on keeping the passes in front of us, so it may have been more scheme.

8:51, 1st and 10- Screen to Broyles that is BEAUTIFULLY read and surely tackled by Earl for -2.

8:20, 2nd and 12- Inside handoff on a slight delay, which allows Sergio and Lamarr to be three yards in the backfield before the RB can even turn his shoulders. Sergio uses I guess what you could call a swim move but really is just running between two matador linemen. Lamarr however outright abuses "All American" Trent Williams.

7:50, 3rd and 13- 3 man blitz gets some pressure, looks like Kheeston has a shot up the middle but is possibly held. The ball is well over the nearest WR but Keenan needlessly grabs the receiver's shoulder pad, yielding a 15 yard penalty. This keeps the drive alive and leads to 3 points. 1 bad penalty, -15 yards.

7:47, 1st and 10- WR screen is well blocked by OU. Aaron Williams gets knocked well off his spot leading to a 16 yard gain.

7:35, 1st and 10- Murray looks to breaka run outside but Williams and to a lesser extent Kindle show good contain to force him back to the middle where defenders await.

7:08, 2nd and 8- Kheeston puts good pressure on Jones after a play fake. Incompletion.

7:01, 3rd and 8- Texas brings a 4 man blitz, with two DL as well as Muckleroy and Earl. The blitz is picked up well and Earl gets knocked right on his butt. The right side DB is now locked into man coverage with no help. Thankfully Jones retreats backwards and throws off his back foot, anticipating the pressure that never got there. The pass is short as a result and Curtis swats it. Curtis was not beaten even though his man made a decent out and up move. Still there was a half step of space and Jones has a little more room to place the ball if he steps into the pocket. FG follows.

5:20, 1st and 10- OU line gets some push, Brown gains 6.

5:01, 2nd and 4- Jones runs a play fake which freezes the D-lineman for a split second which prevents a sack. Short pass completed, and Blake makes a solid tackle to prevent YACs.

4:36, 3rd and 1- Screen pass which is well read and attacked by Keenan Robinson to stop OU a full yard short of the first down. However, the ref decides he doesn't want to walk that far so he spots the ball almost two yards further upfield, giving OU 1st and 10.

4:20, 1st and 10- OU runs a quick snap to prevent a challenge of the awful spot, Chykie comes over late to break up a sideline route.

4:15, 2nd and 10- Another painful WR screen. This time its Chykie who gets blown out of the way. Earl comes over to make a solid tackle on Murray. Murray is shaken up and we don't hear his name called much afterwards. Did I mention that Earl is flying all over the field minutes after being crushed on the bench due to an OU personal foul on Fozzy?

4:05, 1st and 10- Stretch run by Chris Brown who is a solid back but by no means a burner. Somehow he manages to outrun about four defenders. Keenan misses a tackle; Earl gets knocked to the ground, springs back up, and almost makes a TFl anyway but misses a tackle as well, and maybe even prevents Keenan from getting Brown. Blake caps off the horror show with a matador-like arm tackle that would make 2008 Deon Beasley weep openly. A sure 1 yard loss turns into a 16 yard gain. 3 missed tackles, -17 yards.

3:38, 1st and 10- False Start on Caleb

3:20, 1st and 15- Fake reverse that fools no one. Eddie Jones tosses aside a blocker and stuffs the run.

2:57, 2nd and 14- Jones tries a quick snap and rolls away from the pressure but neither helps. A DL (Eddie Jones or Lamarr as close as I can tell) sheds a block and pressures an incompletion.

2:51, 3rd and 14- 5 man blitz gets great pressure which results in an under thrown pass and a ricochet INT. Chykie does a poor job of timing his coverage and gets an easy 15 yard PI.

2:44, 1st and 10- Stretch run fools nobody, since our defense practices against stretch runs that go nowhere all week long (zing!). Ben Alexander gets in the action by pushing Ben Habern five yards backwards and notching the tackle.

2:13, 2nd and 13- Big blitz and Chykie comes off the corner to get a partial hit, though Jones still nearly completes it.

2:08, 3rd and 13- OU is 4-wide, with two men to the strong side. There is safety help on the play but Earl helps inside instead of outside, leaving a one on one jump ball inside the 5 which is poorly thrown and incomplete. Kenney appeared to have a step but Jones does not lead him at all. It appears Earl left the outside WR to provide bracket coverage on Broyles who was well covered by Aaron Williams inside. Probably a smart call since even an unhealthy Broyles is their best WR (as he showed later in the game). Still, OU got a good matchup on the play. FG is missed.

:19, 1st and 10- Lamarr cuts through to trip up Murray for minimal gain.

That's all from the first quarter! I was extremely worried at this point that the defense would gas out from being on the field so much. Unbelievably, it did not happen. Big touts to the players, defensive coaches, and trainers.

2nd Quarter

15:00, 2nd and 9- Okafor blows by his man but can't quite get to Brown for a big loss. Luckily this is another stretch play going nowhere. Brown actually does well to avoid several defenders around him to get a yard.

14:30, 3rd and 8- Texas blitzes SIX, and a defender gets pressure but too late. As you would expect when you blitz six and miss, the offense won big. Tennell makes an easy catch for about 10, then uses a slight juke to leave Chykie in the dust. Earl cleans up and saves a possible touchdown. The missed tackle turns a 10 yard gain into 22 and nearly a TD as Blake was the only other defender in the area and was being blocked. 1 missed tackle, -12 yards.

14:05, 1st and 10- Inside read handoff like the others that have been useless. Yes please, call this play all day long. Okafor shows good quickness, and it helps that he's untouched, but he is literally standing waiting in the backfield for Murray to get the handoff. He does well to wrapup Murray immediately which separates him from the ball he is juggling. Emmaneul Acho dives on the fumble. As dominant as the defense was, I'd almost forgotten that OU had these two red zone trips and come away with zero points between the missed FG and fumble. That 6-0 lead could have been much bigger, and I don't think any of us would have liked our odds to rally from 10-20 points down.

11:03, 1st and 10- Three man blitz, including Williams off the corner. Jones reads this well by throwing a quick slant to Williams side of the field. Chykie is lined up 8 yards off Kenney who gets a big gain. I love having Aaron blitz now and again since he is fast and a good tackler, but on this play he is not lined up against a WR and is looking into the backfield the whole way. Jones reads this easily.

10:42, 1st and 10- Sergio waltzes into the backfield barely touched to TFL Brown. Kheeston Randall shows great restraint in not committing on the field homicide against Jarvis Jones, who leads with his helmet in a diving attempt to sever KR's leg at the knee. Kevin Wilson later says Jarvis is the most technically sound lineman he has ever coached.

10:17, 2nd and 14- Blitz gets some pressure, Jones throws to Caleb who is wide open except for Earl Thomas who closes beautifully to knock it away.

10:09, 3rd and 14- Four man blitz, they roll Jones out to buy him time but it doesn't matter. Houston destroys BOTH Jarvis Jones and Ben Habern to pressure the QB. He can't get a good angle though and misses a big yardage sack. At this point Jones still has a chance to step up and throw downfield, but Kindle stayed active even though it looked like he would not be involved in the play. Sergio forces a throw away.

9:01, 1st and 10- OU goes 5 wide, surprising given their problems with protection. Jones throws a crisp pass for a 1st.

8:48-,1st and 10- OU back to four wide. Four man blitz comes but protection holds well enough. This includes Aaron Williams off the edge who gets nowhere near the QB. He disguises his blitz better than last time, but perhaps OU is looking for him after he KOed Bradford. Another nice throw as the ball is placed low and to the sideline where only the WR can get it. Herbstreit notes the last two throws have been at Curtis Brown. I didn't take note, but perhaps they thought they had something there.

8:31, 1st and 10- Texas blitzes five, several of whom blow through the OU line easily. Lamarr comes straight up the middle and pancakes the lineman (#75, freshman Tyler Evans according to OU roster) and nearly hits Murray for a 7 yard loss. Murray gets away but is now running entirely East-West. Kindle cleans up again by torching Jarvis Jones.

8:12, 2nd and 16- Texas blitzes three initially and gets decent penetration, Kindle in particular. He pressures Jones into throwing it away along with Dustin Earnest who came on a delayed blitz from the weakside. Coverage is apparently good b/c there was pressure but the quick throws from earlier in the drive are not there.

7:55, 3rd and 16- Five man blitz again as the four DL rush and Earnest comes on another delayed blitz, this time from the strong side. The left side of OU's line is moved well off the line which forces Landry Jones to roll right. A hard charging Sam Acho is closing in and forces Jones into another junk throw.

4:55- Not really a down for the OU offense, but wanted to highlight the PR fumble. OU sends extra men to block the punt which leaves Deon Beasley completely unblocked. There is no defender within 15 yards of him as he covers the return. If Deon does not make the tackle then Dominique Franks, who has already busted a long punt return, has some room to run. Deon brings tears to my eyes by making a solid physical tackle, timing it just as the ball arrives (you can see him arrive before the punt but pause for a split second so the tackle is legal). He even adjusts so he can make the tackle straight on, which causes the fumble to go backwards instead of out of bounds. Just a thing of beauty. This reminds me greatly of the USC-OU title game where the special teams foolishly tried to return a kick inside their own 10 and paid the price.

3:35- Madu busts a big return but Curtis Brown sneaks over to perfectly put a shoulder on the ball and force another TO. Despite just fumbling a moment ago, OU apparently did not stress ball security to their return men.

2:17, 1st and 10- Solid push up the middle drops a Chris Brown run up the middle. Sam Acho gets decent push, Gideon gets in the picture with a safety blitz. Neither is involved in the tackle but help collapse the pocket. Lamarr blows the play up in a big way and notches a tackle for no gain, E. Acho got good penetration and might have made a TFL if Lamarr was not already there.

1:48, 2nd and 10- Big surge by the D-Line as Lamarr again positively ABUSES everyone in his path. E. Acho is already in the backfield as well and either would have dropped Brown if it was a handoff. However, resident genius Kevin Wilson thinks that a slow-developing end around is the ideal play to run when your offensive line is being eaten alive. Earl Thomas is either in on run support or running a delayed blitz. He blows the play up for an apparent 10 yard loss but keeps fighting and punches the ball out. He has a shot to recover the ball for a touchdown but his momentum made it a bit difficult. Hard to criticize the guy on a terrific play, but he should have just sat on Kenney and allowed someone else to go for the ball. On the other hand he may not have seen his teammates had a chance to get the ball and Kenney hustled well to recover the ball.

:42, 3rd and 29- Texas rushes four which forces a quick throw, but OU has a quick out open and hits it to avoid the safety.

3rd Quarter

12:23, 1st and 10- Houston, Randall get penetration with Randall stuffing a short run. Keenan blitzes but is not in the play.

12:05, 2nd and 9- Four linemen rush, OU tries to run another short out knowing they won't have much time to throw. Chykie has given a bit of a cushion which would seem sure to be good for OU given the quick out. But he closes well and hits the WR to cause an incompletion. The gain would have been minimal.

11:57, 3rd and 9- The OU line actually holds against the rush. But Jones can't hit his receiver who could have picked up about 15 yards. Chykie tried to jam the receiver at the line but got beat. However, Aaron Williams is perfectly placed to help underneath. A deeper throw might have worked as there is no visible help over the top, but the rush might have caught Jones before he could throw deep.

7:01, 1st and 10- Fair amount of pre-snap movement indicating blitz, which comes with all four linemen plus Muck. Jones is ready for this one and dumps off to Murray who has two blockers ready. Curtis Brown and Earl Thomas do a good job to combine on the tackle. Special tout to Aaron Williams who got blown up on several early WR screens. He is accounted for the whole way but fights through the WR block and takes away the outside for Murray, who is fed back inside to two defenders. Curtis is cleanly knocked onto his knees by Broyles, but springs back to his feet with impressive quickness and still assists on the tackle.

6:35, 2nd and 7- Four man rush, Kheeston gets excellent penetration but never fully sheds his man. As a result he gets pushed out of the QB's way turning a big sack into a scramble for no gain. Habern is flagged for holding Randall, which makes his near sack even more impressive.

6:01, 2nd and 17- Texas represents a 6 man blitz, and marches both strongside DBs well off the receivers. Muck and Keenan, who both showed blitz, drop into coverage and a weakside DB comes on the blitz instead. Unfortunately the "fake" blitz backfires, as Jones quick throws to one of the WR whose man was still playing 8 yards off. Easy pickup of 18.

5:45, 1st and 10- Can't tell the exact formation as only 10 defenders are visible. Looks like nickel. Acho gets doubled by "All American" Trent Williams (he needs help?) and a back. Randall gets no push up the middle and Kindle is knocked down. As you might guess then, Jones has plenty of time and nearly hits a 30 yard pass. Jones locks on Caleb a little but a pump fake to Broyles gets Curtis Brown to commit inside. As a result Caleb was open, except for the safety help from Mr. Thomas. who shows great speed in getting close to the ball. Having Earl on top of you would make a lot of people miss; still, Caleb should have made the catch.

5:38, 2nd and 10- OU quick snaps so we miss the beginning of the play. Texas rushes four but a sideline out is easily available on the throw. Kheeston adds a mind boggling roughing the passer penalty. One of the few mental lapses the defense shows all day.

5:22, 1st and 10- OU motions Murray left to right, suggesting one of the pesudo-zone read plays they've run on the day with no success whatsoever. It's a handoff up the middle and once again the defense is totally prepared. Houston has planted his man face down and is two yards into the backfield, Aaron Williams came unblocked on a CB blitz and is close to making a TFL. Kindle is completely unblocked and dives to stop the runner, along with Sam Acho.

4:52, 2nd and 10- OU is 4-wide with everyone bunched almost within the hash marks. Five men rush while Broyles slips into the flat. The OU line provides decent protection and Aaron Williams makes a poor tackle. Sergio also gets away with a facemask again the lineman. Poor Blake gets Lendy Holmsed but was not really a threat to make the tackle inside the 10. One other thing I would call out here is that Chykie tried to jam his man at the line of scrimmage and failed as we saw a couple times throughout the game. In this case that meant a particularly bad domino effect. Chykie's man was the only WR who was sent deep. Since he beat Brown, Earl had to come to the deep middle to provide help. It appears to me that if Chykie doesn't let his man get behind him, Earl was positioned to provide support against the two WRs in the flat on his side of the field. This included Broyles, who probably would have been stopped for maybe a 10 yard gain even after Williams misses the tackle. This is all hard to predict I admit; bottom line is you can hardly do better than having Aaron Williams positioned for a tackle in the flat. He just didn't make the play in this case.

3:17, 1st and 10- Handoff to Murray who we know will try to bust it outside. OU seems to have realized that stretch plays are not fooling us, so it is a simple run outside to the weakside. Trent Williams gets to the second level and blocks Muck which could have provided a cutback lane. However, Randall gets good push up the middle, and Okafor gets deep as well making a cutback impossible even if Murray had smartly looked for it (hint: he doesn't). Curtis Brown sheds a "block" and easily forces Murray out of bounds. I use quotes because it was a half-hearted non-block, but on top of that the defender gets called for holding which makes the tackle all the better.

3:02, 1st and 20- Same formation for OU, only two WR, both on the strongside, with a RB in the backfield and everyone else protecting. Credit Kevin Wilson in that he actually tried to adjust to the pressure. But there is just too much working against him here. Jones has all day to throw but with only 2 WR our secondary is unconcerned. Credit to Lamarr who eventually beats a double team to finally force a throw. The pass is ten yards away from the nearest WR, who is triple covered.

2:47, 2nd and 20- Back to 4 WR, AND the line stuffs the rush. The pass appears to have been to Ratterree in the flat all the way, as the secondary is playing 12 yards off Broyles, but he runs a half hearted route directly into LB coverage and Jones never looks his way. Though I don't believe that an uninjured Bradford saves OU this day, I have to think he would audible Broyles route as it was open for a good gain. Jarvis Jones dives directly into the legs of an engaged Texas linemen but actually gets caught. Penalty declined. Bob Stoops later claims Jarvis is a distant cousin of Anthony Munoz and has a three pound dong.

2:23, 3rd and 14- Four man rush yields brilliant results. Backup Eddie Jones blows by "All American" Trent Williams as if he was standing still. Trent responds the only way he knows how, clinging and holding by one hand as Eddie strolls by and sacks the QB anyway. Really, if you hate the mind boggling hype that surrounds Williams I beseech you to watch this play on repeat. The guy gets torched on a basic move, clings and holds with a handful of jersey that goes unnoticed, and gives up the sack regardless. Almost as good, Sergio shows a speed rush that gets Jarvis Jones on his heels and then shows his power by pushing him several yards backwards almost into the QB. As a result Jones still gets the sack and if he hadn't Sergio would have. I could watch this all day.

4th Quarter

12:01, 1st and 10- OU screens to the weak side and has room to run. This is the first screen we've seen in a while, surprising given that several WR screens worked in the first half and not much has worked since. Emmanuel Acho comes over to hit Chris Brown after a 10 yard gain but lays a shockingly weak tackle that does nothing and a hit was unnecessary when just pushing Brown would force him out of bounds. Blake hits him with an equally bad shot, yielding an extra 8 or so yards. Both Blake and E. laid shoulder hits on the back and put their heads down to do so. Bad vision and decision making on this play I'm afraid. A RB running down this sideline, make sure you get him out of bounds. This could have been far worse if trailing defenders hadn't caught up to the play.

11:49, 1st and 10- Texas rushes three linemen plus Aaron Williams. Landry Jones throws 30 yards down the sideline but he isn't nearly an accurate enough passer down the field to his this route (at least, not yet). Curtis has tight coverage and Blake helps over the top.

11:43, 2nd and 10- OU is trips left with Brown in the backfield. After the success of the last screen they return to the WR screen to Murray this time. Aaron Williams reads the play beautifully and attacks the WR first, before he can initiate contact. The blocker is pushed several yards backwardsinto Murray as he catches the ball. Instead of running room down the sideline, Murray has to cut back inside where E., Earl, and Chykie have all read the play and are waiting. Play goes for no gain even though Broyles is called for holding.

11:15, 2nd and 20- OU runs another screen for Brown but instead of doubling an inside receiver and leaving Brown open like the previous screen, the LB this time account for the back and Keenan drops him.

10:49, 3rd and 20- Brown fakes a block then slips into the middle of the field for a pass. OU send four WR deep which clears out all DBs and LBs save Dustin Earnest. Earnest is stuffed by two OL who blocked for a moment then released to the second level. A gamble, since it gave two Texas DL a shot at the QB, but it buys enough time for a 19 yard catch and run. Keenan comes off a pseudo-block outside the left hash and flies in at what looks like an impossible angle to trip the runner. I hate to pile on Blake, but he has a straight on shot at Brown and allows himself to be kept out of the play by an extremely passive blocker. He needs to at least attempt to fight through.

9:58, 4th and 1- OU goes into a power set and brings in the fullback. Strangely, he does not block for the runner but bounces outside to block an edge rusher who would have had no bearing on the play. Not sure if this is a bad design or miscommunication but it's a wasted block on a play where a few inches would have been the difference. Ben Alexander sticks the run and does very well to hold onto Brown and throw him backward as he continues to squirm towards the marker.

8:01, 1st and 10 - Kheeston splits blocks from Habern and the RG and is on Jones immediately. OU has set up another screen which is again well read by the LBs, possibly knowing that b/c Murray was the deep back he is less likely to block and more likely a pass target. Keenan crushes him.

7:56, 2nd and 10- OU in their bunched 4 WR formation with Murray and Jones back. Three linemen and Aaron Williams rush while Kindle drops into coverage. Kindle tackles the TE in the flat.

7:31, 3rd and 5- Trips right. Kindle beats Jarvis Jones and Murray positions himself poorly for a support block, which leads to a a flagged hold on Kindle. Lamarr Houston keeps coming, even though the play is coming back. The secondary pressure forces Jones to attempt a throwaway with a man in his face, which is key as Aaron Williams climbs the ladder.

6:03, 1st and 10- Rollout completion for 4.

5:28, 2nd and 6- The familiar trips to the strongside WR screen, again to Murray. I know Murray busted the 60 yarder earlier, but the guy makes about one play a year against good teams. OU's force-feeding him the ball shows how badly they lack any healthy offensive playmakers. Aaron Williams again fights through a block and stuffs Murray as he did earlier.

5:04, 3rd and 5- In a rare move, OU goes 5 wide. Throws to Murray split wide again. This was not Chykie's best game (though he was by no means bad) but he makes a very strong tackle to force 4th down.

4:27, 4th and 1- OU goes with the same formation as the earlier 4th down. A WR to the strong side, a FB and HB. The linemen do a good job of getting low and the sneak works.

4:00, 1st and 10- OU goes 3-wide with a TE, Texas has only two LBs in. It's an inside handoff with Murray running to the strong side. Again, they try and fail to stretch the Texas defense. The use of the TE is odd here; the run is away from the TE and towards two receivers who should be blocking. Texas has two DBs as well as a safety deep on that side meaning that once the safety reacts to the run, Texas has more men than can be blocked. The run is also towards Kindle on the right edge where he is maatched up in all likelihood against Jarvis Jones (number is obscured) who hasn't blocked him all day. Not surprisingly Jones dives at Kindle and misses, allowing Sergio to get 4 yards into the backfield untouched. Murray cuts back inside for minmal gain.

3:38, 2nd and 8- Nothing fancy. OU goes 4 wide and Texas drops 7. There is nowhere to go with the ball except a dumpoff to Murray in the flat for two yards. Instead the throw goes deep middle to a bracketed receiver. Easy pickings for Earl. OU would not touch the ball again.

Watching all this again it's amazing to see the number of good plays our defense made. There were several mistakes to be sure, but very few for a game where the opposing offense ran so many plays.

What Stat Will Predict the 2009 Season

the chairman211 — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:58:02 -0000

At the beginning of the 2008 season the jury was still very much out on Colt McCoy. You worried he would struggle again with turnovers and Texas could expect another very solid but ultimately disappointing season. You know the team needed a big year from him to contend. Suddenly, your 2009 self appears and hands you a piece of paper, then disappears. It show glorious numbers, 3800 yds, 77% completion rate, 45 total TDs vs. 8 picks. You crumple the paper and walk away saying "Texas is winning a lot of games this year."

Cut to the present. Texas is a consensus top 3 team, with many of us expecting a national title. If you could phone your friends at the 2010 Elias Sports Bureau, what stat are you asking for (other than Wins-Losses you clever fellow) to predict if we won the BCS title or not? Even though Colt is still our most important player, his stat line probably won't give us the insight we want. Fairly or not, we expect a similarly outrageous year from him statistically regardless of how the season ends. The stats of "lesser" teammates, however, might reveal more details of the season. If I knew Malcolm Williams finished 2009 with say, 60 rec/960 yds/9 TDs I might reasonably infer that the offense successfully added a downfield component. Given how well I expect the short and mid-range passing game with Shipley and Collins to function, I would be even more confident about the season than I am now. Now some may think that's too low a prediction for Malcolm, others too high. But the point being that either way it tells us something significant about the 2009 offense.

This exercise is most interesting to me at the player level, because it's much easier to predict outcomes using team stats. To win a title we need further defensive improvement, so obviously PPG Against would largely answer our questions. But cutting deeper, we know that with a weakened pass rush the secondary needs to produce more turnovers. We know that our opponents are going to throw the ball a LOT. And as of now we expect Chykie Brown to be our shutdown corner. Given those facts, if Chykie Brown had 7 interceptions in 2009 I would feel pretty good. If he had 2 INTs, I would worry the defense hadn't made enough strides from last year to win a title. Now it's possible that Chykie only had 2 picks b/c teams just stopped throwing at him. Or maybe Curtis Brown made the leap and became the shutdown guy, getting 7 INTs himself. In either case the defense could have become elite without my chosen statistic revealing it. But if I've got the Elias guy on the phone, I'm rolling the dice with Chykie.

Some other telling stats might include Sam Acho sacks (We all expect Kindle to get his. Someone else needs to provide a pass rush when he gets doubled), DJ Grant receptions, and so on. Which stats do you think will tell us if Texas lives the dream again?

Poll

What stats will best predict the 2009 season?

Colt McCoy Passing Yds/TDs

13 votes

Malcolm Williams Rec/Yds/TDs

4 votes

Chykie Brown INTs

10 votes

Sergio Kindle Sacks

13 votes

Sam Acho Sacks

9 votes

Fozzie Whittaker Rushing Yds/TDs

44 votes

None of these. And OU still sucks.

42 votes

135 votes | Poll has closed

Bob Stoops' 4 Title Game Appearances****asterisk

the chairman211 — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 07:14:27 -0000

The announcing tonight was as awful as we have come to expect from Fox. But I was impressed Brennaman actually DARED to comment that Bobby Stoops would be criticized tomorrow morning (really? after three double digit losses in four years to Texas and five straight BCS losses he will take some heat?). Of course Charles Davis countered that it was impossible to rip a guy who had gone to 4 title games in 9 years.

I had to concede that while he has been a big-game disaster for years, 4 for 9 is an impressive streak. Oh wait, actually since I have moderate ability to recall something called "history" it took me no time at all to conclude this admittedly impressive feat is more the result of luck+chance than a coaching affirmation. Obviously you need to do well to even position your team to contend for 4 title games. However, let's take a closer look....

2000- OU completes a remarkable season by spanking Florida State. Arguably Miami should have been the opponent by virtue of their head to head victory over FSU, but the Okie victory was thorough and convincing. Little do we know that this is the perhaps the height of the Bob Stoops era. Verdict: Miami may have been more deserving than FSU, but by all appearances OU was the best team in the land.

2003- OU is hailed as perhaps the best team in CFB history while destroying everyone to reach the Big 12 title game. Going in a substantial favorite, they lose to an unheralded KSU team by a whopping 35-7 margin. Despite this shellacking they are sent to the title game over USC who is ranked #1 by both the AP and Coaches. Somehow they are still a touchdown favorite over LSU, but are dominated in a 21-14 loss that was not nearly as close as the score. USC by contrast plays very well in a Rose Bowl victory to gain the AP title. Verdict: USC should have gone over OU.

2004- OU adds freshman phenom Adrian "Plays For Titles" Peterson to an already excellent passing offense, presumably adding the dominant rushing player they previously lacked. OU again rolls to 12-0 with a slightly less dominant, but perhaps more complete squad than the 2003 unit. Auburn fights through the Best Conference Evah undefeated but gets squeezed out of the big game. OU rewards their supporters by going on the receiving end of one of the biggest beatdowns in the history of college football with a national title on the line. Auburn finishes 13-0. Verdict: Auburn should have gone over OU.

2008- We're all well aware of the facts here, no need to rehash. Suffice it to say that the Sooners play for the national title when at least three other teams - Texas, Utah, and USC - are equally or better qualified for a title shot. They play respectably but lose by 10 going away, while all three comparable teams win their bowls, with USC and Utah doing so in particularly impressive fashion. Verdict: Texas, USC, or Utah should have gone over OU.

There is no doubt that Bob Stoops has had an impressive run at Oklahoma, but he has struggled mightily against euqally talented teams in recent years. And his greatest accomplishment, 4 title game appearances is largely the result of poor voter decisions (2004, 2008) and quirky computer algorithms (2003, 2008).

and now for something completely different: K-State brings back Snyder

the chairman211 — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 04:50:08 -0000

I know we're hopelessly focused on ludicrous computer algorithms and the endless rooting scenarios we may have before us, but temporarily avert your eyes and notice that Kansas State has now officially brought Bill Snyder back from a 3-year retirement to coach their team. It was not that long ago this was considered by some to be an up and coming position, now the 69 year old Snyder will attempt to re-enter the modern college game amid the most competitive conference in the country.

Now Snyder deserves tremendous credit for building a respectable national program. He was rightfully criticized for scheduling one of the nation's lightest and fluffiest schedules on an annual basis; however the fact remains that he took an atrocious program and turned it into a top 25 regular. The moderately high expectations he set are part of the reason Ron Prince was briskly ushered aside. However, there are multiple problems with this hire. Football coaches rarely return to their former digs and light things up (e.g. John Robinson) as the pressure to match prior success in considerable. Second, coaches rarely come out of retirement and adapt to their new environments properly (Joe Gibbs, Parcells in Dallas). If Snyder found his passion to coach too low or the demands of the job too high for a man in his late 60's it's hard to see how his situation would be improved now. Regardless of the reasons, it must be noted his last two teams went 9-13. The game has evolved much since he last took the field, and the Big 12 is better than ever.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/football/ncaa/11/23/snyder.kansasstate/index.html

anyone order from texas video store?

the chairman211 — Mon, 15 Oct 2007 04:04:41 -0000

http://store.texassports.com/catalog/

has anyone ordered old vids from them, do you recommend them or not? anything i should be aware of before i plunk down a good chunk of change etc.

thanks

the LB play wasn't terrible, but....

the chairman211 — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 00:24:27 -0000

i know the overwhelming majority of people here already want muck and norton (and to a lesser extent kindle) on the field more so i don't mean to pile on, but i noticed two particular failings in the LB play today.

FOU's second TE pass for touchdown came when derry was matched against Gresham, tried and failed to jam him at the line and then was way to slow to recover on the coverage. result = easy TD pass

on murray's painful TD stroll bobino had a quality shot at murray for a 3 yard loss but whiffs the tackle. murray makes a nice play to hurdle the defense and run away barely touched.

personally i wouldn't say the LB play cost us the game per se, but i noticed these two plays for TDs and couldn't help but feel muckelroy and norton might've stopped them.

breaking: vince getting jersey retired???

the chairman211 — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 14:03:14 -0000

i haven't seen anything about this either here or in the MSM, so if true it's been kept pretty well under wraps. but now Rivals is reporting that vince will be at saturday's game where they will forever hang up #10.

It will be his first visit to Austin for a football game since he left school. Word has it that Young, who will be featured in a 60 Minutes segment Sunday, will have his jersey retired. He would be the third Texas football player to be so honored, joining Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams.

http://collegefootball.rivals.com/co...

coverage of vince's second year

the chairman211 — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 16:25:00 -0000

while vince has always been a target for criticism, i find the pile on mentality in his 2nd year a bit much. his practice punch and pre-season benching were given considerable attention as well as a perceived lack of passing development. the ante seems raised when wilbon can ad-hom vince without rebuttal.

matt leinart has edge, boldin, and fitzgerald supporting him but has a lower rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. leinart was pulled from yesterday's game for kurt warner. according to the arizona republic "after a poor performance in Week 1 he had to be prodded by the coaching staff to put in extra preparation time."

now vince deserves some criticism and i don't hate leinart now that he's in the NFL (i'm sure others do not feel likewise). but we hear plenty of talk that vince is struggling but little about leinart when he's playing worse. the lack of preparation comment is especially damning. you're telling me vince would have to be "prodded" into the film room after a loss? it will be interesting to see leinart's coverage if he can't right the ship, and also what comments wilbon has at tonight's game.

our latest arrest

the chairman211 — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 15:07:36 -0000

tyrell gatewood busted for drugs. diary requirements insist i write more to post, but is there really anything further to say at this point?

http://chron.com/disp/story.mpl/fron...

Moody narrows list to two (no Texas)

the chairman211 — Fri, 24 Aug 2007 20:25:40 -0000

ESPN reports Moody will either transfer to UNC or Florida. Not surprising given Butch Davis and Urban Meyer's respective reputations for wooing. UNC makes sense for playing time, but despite loads of talent UF has struggled to have a star (or even a sole starter) at RB. He could get to carry the load there too.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/s...