SB Nation User Blog: the red baron

The Bull Market

the red baron — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:04:20 -0000

Whitey Herzog will be on the ballot for the Hall of Fame this winter. I ignored this bit of news in favour of complete rambling nonsense.

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So just say for a second you were the General Manager of a major league baseball team, and you've got a rather substantial amount of money to spend. Say also, while we're hypotheticizing here, that you are facing a truly awful free agent class. Okay. Got it? Now, say your name is, um, Ron Fobaylock. So here you are, Mr. Fobaylock, with more money to spend than you've ever had up to this point in your tenure as a GM, and just look at the detritus you have to choose from! So, what would you do?

Such is the conundrum faced by Johnny Mo this offseason. Sure, he's got the money, but what's he going to spend it on? We've all seen the lists of free agents by now, and let's face it: what the Cardinals need, there just ain't a whole lot of out there. The Cards need a left fielder, and there are three really attractive options: Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Mike Cameron. Unfortunately, all three have issues. It's looking less and less likely Holliday has any interest in playing for anything less than a stupid contract. Bay will almost assuredly sign before Holliday, as Scott Boras will want Bay to help set a market for his client. Cameron would seem to be a great fit, but it's also possible he may prefer to go somewhere as a full-time center fielder. It certainly isn't a stretch to believe the Cards might come away without any of the three. And then what? Sorry, but Xavier Nady and his bionic elbow doesn't interest me, and Johnny Damon just isn't worth the draft pick.

The story is much the same at third base, the other main position of need for El Birdos. Mark DeRosa is a known quantity, but on the other hand, Mark DeRosa is a known quantity. Adrian Beltre has a nice glove, but his bat is questionable and his price tag much the same. Troy Glaus brings power and should come cheap, but with a body composed mostly of old newspapers and sadness it's tough to say how durable he'll be.

So what's a GM, whether hypothetical or real, to do? How does one improve a team when the options seem so very limited? Well, one looks elsewhere, of course. And when one looks elsewhere to improve the 2010 Cardinals over the 2009 version, another area of concern begins to whisper its weakness. I speak, of course, of the bullpen.

Unlike the other areas of need the Cardinals have, there are plenty of options to improve the relief corps. Look at the list of available free agent relievers, and you have to be impressed with the firepower. Guys like Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel and Mike Gonzalez could all potentially make a big impact on a bullpen. So let's take a look at the most attractive options, shall we? I know we all love Ryan Franklin and believe he'll come back in 2010 snorting fire and striking hitters out left and right, but let's just say, for fun, he doesn't. Perhaps a closer might help.

The Type A's

Billy Wagner, LHP - Sure, he's old. And sure, he's had surgery in the recent past. You know what? I don't care. Billy Wagner is still a bad, bad man, even after Tommy John. In limited action following his return from TJ in 2009, Wagner did exactly what he always does: he dominated. He threw 15.2 innings between the Metropolitans and the Red Sox, and posted a 2.33 FIP. He strikeout rate was 14.94 per 9 innings. His control wasn't quite as sharp as usual, but that's certainly to be expected on the comeback trail from elbow surgery. The bottom line is Billy Wagner still kicks ass approaching 40 and with a surgically repaired arm.

The problem with signing relievers, of course, is the wildly inconsistent nature of their performance from year to year. This year's Brad Lidge can quickly become next year's Brad Lidge, and with little or no warning. Not Billy Wagner, though. Wagner has posted an ERA above 3.00 exactly once in his big league career, in 2000. His next highest ERA is 2.85. What I'm trying to say is this: if you're looking for a sure thing to improve your bullpen, Billy Wagner is probably it.

So what's the catch? Well, the catch is Wagner falls into that dastardly trap known as Type A. Yes, that's right. If the Boston Red Sox offer Wagner arbitration (and they would be fools not to), he would cost the Cardinals their first-round pick in 2010. Of course, if the Cards were to pick up some other team's first rounder, say, in return for a certain left fielder who shall remain nameless, it would certainly help take some of the sting out.

Mike Gonzalez, LHP - The upside of Gonzalez is this: he's the second-best left-handed reliever on the market, right behind the aforementioned Billy Wagner. He consistently strikes out better than a batter an inning, and has posted an ERA above 4.00 only twice in his career. The downside? He walks too many batters, though he has improved his control since his early days in Pittsburgh, he blew seven saves in only seventeen opportunities last year, he'll cost you a draft pick, and that Rain Man impression he does on the mound is wicked annoying.

Here's my thought on signing Gonzalez: he's a very good pitcher, capable of shutting the door on an opponent at the end of the game. At the same time, though, he isn't as good as Wagner, would likely demand a longer contract, and will still cost you the same in draft pick compensation. For the money and the lost pick, I would take Wagner in a heartbeat over Gonzalez.

Rafael Soriano, RHP - So you want a guy just like the first two pitchers on this list, but you're afraid of lefties, you say? Well, look no further than Rafael Soriano. He's got the same electric stuff as Mike Gonzalez, but lacking the sinister overtones. Soriano struck out better than 12/9 IP in 2009, while keeping his walk rate down at a very manageable 3.21. He throws hard, has an outstanding breaking ball, and generally does a fine job of keeping the ball in the park. What more could you ask for?

Well, one could ask for a better track record of health, I suppose. Soriano has a history of arm troubles, though they're usually more of the nagging variety than the cutting variety. What is really interesting about Soriano and Gonzalez is that both play for the Braves. Now, while that may not seem all that interesting at first blush, there is the possibility Atlanta may not be willing to offer arbitration to both players. One would have to assume they will offer arb. to one or the other, but if they are at all concerned the market this winter could be as slow as last offseason, they may hesitate to possibly put themselves on the hook for two short relievers due for large pay increases. If Atlanta fails to offer either Soriano or Gonzalez arbitration, that player immediately gets a big, big bump in value. Definitely a situation worth watching.

Octavio Dotel, RHP - After a couple years of wandering in the wilderness, Dotel has resurrected his career the past two seasons with the Chicago White Sox. He's been healthy, throwing 134 total innings, and has shown flashes of the same brilliance he displayed early in his career with the Houston Astros. (And by the way, look at some of the numbers Dotel put up in Houston. It's easy to forget just how good he was for about three years, and just how hard he was ridden.) The old fire may not quite be there, as he no longer gooses his fastball up to 97 or 98, but the slider is still good and the K numbers show it. On the other hand, betting on Dotel at this point is a definite risk, as his injury history is long and detailed. Just looking at the jump his walk rate took from 2008 to 2009 is enough to give me pause.

Jose Valverde, RHP - I'll be honest with you: I can't stand Jose Valverde. I hate his delivery, I hate the little dance he does, I hate his half-assed perm, and I hate, well, pretty much everything else about the dude. He just bugs me, you know? However, personal feelings aside, Valverde is still a pretty fine pitcher. He strikes out better than a batter an inning, his walk rate is just fine, and he's only given up more than a hit per inning once in his career. (He gave up 50 hits in 49.1 innings in 2006.)

On the other hand, Valverde also happens to have name recognition that a couple of the other guys on this list don't have. He's certainly better known than either of the Atlanta pitchers, and is consistently seen on SportsCenter pumping his fist and just being all Proven Closer. Thus, his price tag will likely exceed those of the other guys listed here, I would think.

There are a couple other Type A relievers, but I don't see any of them as real options. Kevin Gregg is a Type A, but I have to think the Cards saw enough of him in a Cubs' uni to stay away. John Grabow is good, but more of a specialist type, and LaTroy Hawkins, well, um, I'm not really sure how to finish that sentence.

The Type B's

Kiko Calero, RHP - Okay, I'm going to level with you: Calero is probably the only Type B I'm really that interested in. Well, maybe not the only one, but he's certainly at the top of the list. Hell, if nothing else, signing Calero would allow us all the look at the Cardinal roster and forget, if only for a second, that the Mark Mulder deal ever happened.

The problem with Calero is that his numbers look, well, they look like a reliever's. Whereas the guys up in the A bracket have established a track record of fairly consistent performance year after year, Calero's numbers look more like a tech stock's six-month record. He was excellent for the Cards in 2003 and '04, then went to Oakland along with Daric Barton and no one else, and had two very nice seasons for them. Then came 2007, and Kiko just self-destructed. His walk rate exploded, his strike outs plummeted, and his home run rate stayed low largely because of Oakland's cavernous home stadium. 2008 brought more frustration, and Kiko landed in Florida for the 2009 season. He proceeded to put up brilliant numbers once again, with an ERA under 2.00. So which Kiko would you be buying for 2010? Therein lies the conundrum of trying to sign relievers to improve your bullpen.

The best thing Kiko Calero has going for him is the fact he won't cost you a draft pick. He won't give you the same kind of performance the guys on the A list probably would, but he also won't screw you in June when you don't have a pick until #97 overall. Calero keeps the ball on the ground and in the park, so he would certainly fit in with the rest of the staff, but his ERA is almost certain to rise in 2010 nonetheless. He stranded better than 82% of baserunners in '09, a number that likely isn't sustainable.

Brandon Lyon, RHP - Okay, take a look at Lyon's numbers. Now, do you see why the Cardinals should stay well clear of this guy? If not, don't feel bad. There's going to be at least one General Manager this winter who doesn't see it either, and he's probably going to hand Brandon Lyon a 2.86 ERA contract.

The problem, of course, is Brandon Lyon isn't a 2.86 ERA pitcher. He did, however, look like one in 2009. Unfortunately, that doesn't cover the fact it was pretty much all smoke, all mirrors, all the time. His K/BB rate was well under two. He stranded over 80% of baserunners. His BABIP was an unsustainably low .229. In short, Brandon Lyon in 2009 is the guy the concept of regression to the mean was invented for.

Now, that's not to say Brandon Lyon is a bad pitcher, per se, but only to show what kind of an investment the Cardinals should probably avoid making. Sure, a guy like Lyon isn't going to cripple you by himself, but as Cardinal fans, we've seen all too well how a bunch of small, sorta bad contracts can turn into a big, really bad contract when you take them all together. No, for what he'll cost, Brandon Lyon is just the sort of pitcher who isn't worth it.

Rich Harden, RHP - And now we come to one of my favourite hypotheticals. There's going to be plenty of discussion this offseason about Rich Harden maybe being the sort of guy you might want to offer an incentive-heavy contract to for one year just to see. Sure, he's never ever ever, ever ever, ever ever been healthy for an extended period of time, but sweet Jesus, look at what he can do when he does get on the field.

You won't find a pitcher more talented, or an arm more intriguing, than Mr. Harden. Unfortunately, we all know the other side of the story: Harden has made 30 starts exactly once in his career, in 2005. When he's healthy, he's a joy to watch. But most of the time, you're just going to be frustrated by the pitcher who isn't there.

Whether or not Harden would be worth offering a one-year deal to as a starter, though, isn't really what I'm concerned with at the moment. What I want to know is if he could possibly be enticed into trying his hand at a relief role. Maybe he just isn't built to handle the rigors of 200 innings a season. Maybe he could come in and air it out for ten or twelve pitches at a time and keep himself on the field.

Something interesting about Harden is this: he's actually been fairly healthy the last two years. In 2008 and '09, he made 25 and 26 starts, respectively. Not quite a full healthy season, but close. What's even move interesting is for the first time in his career, Harden failed to really have much success in 2009. That coincided with his complete abandonment of both his slider and split-finger pitches, both of which had been huge weapons for him in the past. Harden essentially became a strict two-pitch pitcher in 2009, yet was still able to have a reasonable level of success over better than 140 innings.

So what we have here is a pitcher who has been relatively healthy two years running, but still seems unable to stay off the training table for a full season's worth of innings. He now throws basically just two pitches, still has the velocity on his fastball, and can still strike hitters out like nobody's business. The real Achilles' Heel for Harden in '09 was his home run rate, which was close to twice his career mark. Some of that was undoubtedly due to pitching in Wrigley Field for a full season, but I think a lot of it was the fact he simply refused to go to a third pitch to keep hitters off balance.

I have no idea if Harden would be amenable to the idea of pitching in relief or not. But I look at his numbers, and I look at his track record, and it cries out to me there's a dominant reliever just waiting to be born. So what if he can't throw 180 innings? Give me 60 or 70 innings of vintage Rich Harden, and I'll show you a winner.

In the end, I think the Cardinals could probably do pretty well for themselves if they chose to invest a bit of coin in the bullpen this offseason. Ordinarily, I'm not at all of the mind that throwing money at relievers is a good way to improve your team, but this year might just be the exception. I think the Cards will miss out on both of the top left fielders, Holliday due to the enormous salary he'll get and Bay due to timing, and I honestly don't see a third baseman on the market I think would be worth the money for the improvement over David Freese. Maybe Chone Figgins, but I get the feeling the Angels are going to resign him. I could be wrong, of course.

So maybe in order to improve the team, Johnny Mo and Co. improve a semi-sore spot instead of the glaring holes. Maybe they take all that money they were going to hand to Holliday and they go give some of it to Billy Wagner. Maybe then they call up Rich Harden and say, "Hey, Rich. We couldn't help but notice you're awesome and all, but you sure do seem to get hurt a lot. Our manager and pitching coach built a pretty sizable portion of their legacy on turning a starter into a reliever about twenty years ago; how would you like to be the next Eckersley?"

There are, of course, others who might be interesting, guys who don't show up on the arbitration lists, but few of them warrant a whole lot of consideration over what the Cards already have, in my ever so humble opinion. Guillermo Mota is out there, and might be okay, but he's also getting up in years and I don't really like him. Duaner Sanchez might be worth a spring training invite to see if he looks healthy or not. Justin Speier, subject of a fair amount of speculation here back about mid-season, is capable of getting right-handed hitters out quite effectively. Fernando Rodney would certainly be worth kicking the tires on if the Tigers don't bring him back. There will be plenty of non-tenders as well, possibly a record amount, and a large percentage of those players will likely be relievers. Still, lest this become even more unwieldy than it already is, I'm not going to speculate further on who might be cut loose. For now, these are the guys I think bear watching.

Now, what would you do with guys like Kyle McClellan, you ask? Well, to be honest, I don't really have an answer, because I don't care. I want a bullpen that can overwhelm the other team, and K-Mac, despite his awesome nickname, just isn't terrifying anyone with his 1.50 K/BB ratio in 2009. Give me Motte and give me Boggs, maybe make a spot for Eddie Sanchez midseason. But don't give me Brad Thompson and McClellan and the like.

Of course, the question must be asked: is someone like Billy Wagner and what he would bring to the team worth giving up a first-round draft pick for? And the answer is an unequivocal maybe. See, ordinarily, I'm of the mind you don't give up those draft picks for pretty much anything. Period. But the fact is, I think the Cardinals are going to have a pretty fair haul of extra picks early in the draft this year, and that changes the equation a bit. If Holliday and DeRosa both leave, the Cards have two extra supplemental picks and a possible first-rounder coming. (It could also be a second rounder, which is just fucking idiotic. The draft compensation rules have got to be fixed in the next CBA. It's just ridiculous the way this whole thing works.) Jo-El is on his way out as well, I'm sure, so that's a third supplemental pick. I sort of doubt the Cards offer Troy Glaus arbitration, but if they do and he leaves, that's four. Most likely, the Cardinals will have three supplemental picks, all in the 30-50 range, and an extra second-round pick. (I think Holliday ends up with the Mets. It would be nice if the Giants or Angels signed him, though.)

With so many extra picks in the first two rounds, I honestly would be okay with the Cards forfeiting their first-round choice to sign a Billy Wagner. I can't imagine he would want more than about a one- or two-year deal at his age, so you aren't locking yourself into anything that could cripple you long-term. You give up your first rounder, yes, but you still have something like five picks in the first 80 or so. I can live with that.

So what do you guys think? I say when (okay, if), Holliday walks, and Bay has already re-upped with Boston, and Cameron signs with Kansas City because they'll let him be the center fielder, we focus on the 'pen. Give me Wagner to destroy all in his path, Harden as a grand experiment, and keep the rest of the powder dry.

Maybe we lose 90 games 2-1. Or maybe not. Hey, it's November. What else have we got to talk about?

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of November, 2009

"Oviedo" - Blind Pilot

"Gotta Get Up" - Harry Nilsson

"The Old Revolution" - Leonard Cohen

"The Handshake" - MGMT

"Let's Build a Fire" - +/-

My Maudlin' Career

the red baron — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:01:02 -0000

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I didn't really realise it last week, but just the other day it sort of hit me when I looked at the date: I just celebrated two years of writing for this wonderful site. My very first front page post was on Halloween of 2007, and seeing as how we are now in the glorious month of November in Year of Our Lord 2009, that's two damned years I've been cluttering up the interwebs with my peculiar ramblings. And so, seeing as how I am the sort of person who simply cannot resist nostalgia or making lists of things, I thought I would go back through all the things I've written here at VEB and pick out my favourites. It also doesn't hurt, of course, that very little is actually going on in Cardinal land at this particular moment.

So I started rolling back through all my past posts, and something began to become apparent as I did: I'm sort of a depressing dude. Most of my stuff I think is really pretty good tends to be of the wistful, sad, and slightly bitter emotive variety. Don't get me wrong; the idea I am a bit of a bummer is not exactly news to me, as people have been telling me that my whole life. However, it was a bit surprising to see the proof staring me so clearly in the face.

Regardless, I am proud to bring you my personal Best Of collection out of sheer arrogance and hubris. (And also maybe a little because I was interested to see if I've gotten any better at this, but mostly the gigantic ego thing.) In reverse chronological order (I think):

Reflection -- recent post about the end of our season
Talk Talk Talk-- the very first chat I tried
Drafting a Masterpiece-- reviewing the first day of the 2009 draft
Swingin', and Not Just Dick-- there is, in fact, a toaster involved in this post
Life Lenses-- in which I discuss the departure of Adam Kennedy
God Bless Us, Every One -- Christmas 2008
The Team Stripped Bare By Its Suitors, Even-- an interesting hypothetical, and my favourite title
Good Bye, Halcyon Days -- mourning for last summer, and my second favourite title
Not With a Bang, but a Whimper-- Jason Isringhausen
Saturday Morning Coming Down-- a discussion of Mark McGwire and me forgetting how to spell the word rhythm

And, just for funsies, my first main page story, and the very first diary I ever put up here.

Hopefully you don't find this too very self-indulgent, though I'm certain it probably is.

As for the current news of the day:

I am of the belief the Yankees' strategy of using only three pitchers and throwing them on short rest is going to backfire on them. We already saw A.J. Burnett get crushed pitching on three days' rest, and I'm honestly expecting something similar from Pettitte tonight. I still expect the Yankees to win in seven, because I do believe CC Sabathia will roll pretty much no matter what and Cole Hamels seems a bit lost in the wilderness to me, but I also think New York has made the series much tougher than it needed to be. Historically we can see pitchers tend to struggle on short rest, regardless of the era in question (relatively speaking, of course; if a pitcher is usually going on three days' rest, then two days' rest hurts hime), and I think Girardi has weakened his team's position unnecessarily. What do all of you think? I know this concept of only needing three starters in the playoffs has been Fritz' pet peeve for a while now; we now get to see just how viable such a strategy really is.

I don't much care for the Iwamura deal from the Pirates' side of things; it just seems like they're still treading water. Dave Cameron disagrees with me, for whatever it's worth.(I also forgot Jack Wilson got traded to the Mariners; the perils of writing in a hurry, you know.) I do wish like hell whoever it was who started stumping for Ben Zobrist a couple years ago had more pull with the front office; the guy could have been had for a song as recently as last season, now he has to be considered untouchable. Interestingly enough, VEB has been right in wanting to acquire both Jayson Werth and Zobrist at various points in time before they broke out. I know there were some here last year (myself included), who would have liked to see Johnny Mo try to pick up Huston Street on the cheap while he was struggling. I remember the advocacy of several posters (again, myself included), for a deal that would have brought Cliff Lee to the Cards after his disastrous 2007 campaign. (In fact, Lee was one of my personal crusades that offseason.) I believe the idea was to move Scott Rolen for Lee and possibly try to get Jhonny Peralta involved somehow with other inducements going from St. Louis to Cleveland. I was a big fan of Carlos Quentin, and I know jillsinmo (who seems to have largely disappeared, sadly), stumped for him for awhile as well. My point? If you happen to work in the Cardinals' front office and are reading this (and I know you guys are), you may want to take a good hard look at any buy-low guys we come up with this offseason. Our track record is remarkably good.

Of course, if you had listened to us last year, we might very well have signed Ben Sheets for a lost season, so at least make sure you look at the X-rays first.

My predicition, guaranteed to be right, for Game 6 tonight: Phillies 7, Yankees 3. Pedro goes 5 inning, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk. JA Happ relieves him and holds the Yankees down. Pettitte gets knocked around, failing to get out of the third inning and giving up 5 runs.

Have a lovely day, everyone.

The Baron's Playlist for the 4th of November, 2009

"Lovelier Girl" -- Beach House

"Jesus Walking on the Water" -- Violent Femmes

"Mr. Tough" -- Yo La Tengo

"Pale Blue Eyes" -- The Velvet Underground

"These Days" -- Nico

The Trade Bait Blues

the red baron — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:17:22 -0000

More photos » AP

about 1 month ago: FILE -- These are 2009 file photos showing St. Louis Cardinals' Chris Carpenter, left, and Toronto Blue Jays Aaron Hill, right. Chris Carpenter has been voted NL comeback player of the year and Aaron Hill has won the AL award. (AP Photo/File)

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages...

I can't think of anything to write about this morning.

Seriously. I know it sounds a little odd, considering how I usually seem to just effortlessly spew out 10,000 word novellas at the drop of a hat, but I really can't think of much. I thought about doing a World Series preview, but then I thought, fuck that. I hate the Phillies and I hate the Yankees; previewing a series between them would essentially be like choosing which foot I would rather get kicked in the balls with, left or right. Either way, it's going to suck, so let's just leave it alone, kay?

It's still too early for any movement on the free agent market, so there's no news there. I don't have time to do a chat, and I can't imagine anyone really wants to talk about Twilight again for six hundred comments.

Also, I don't feel at all well today; I believe my brother gave me the stomach flu he's been complaining of the past several days. (It's really strange; I think I've been sick more in the past year than in the previous 8-10 years combined. It's beginning to really piss me off.)

There is one piece of real news, of course: Chris Carpenter was named yesterday as Major League Baseball's Comeback Player of the Year. Unfortunately, I already wrote a piece on that for my RFT gig, so not really a whole lot else to say there.

So what am I going to write about this morning? Well, I thought maybe we should do a quick rundown of what the Cardinals still have in the warchest if they need to try and make any trades this offseason. Looking around the free agent market, there are a few players the Cards may look to in order to try and bolster their chances, but not a whole lot, really. Sure, we would all like to see Mo go after John Lackey, but with the amount of payroll already tied up in the rotation, it probably isn't going to happen. The third base crop is uninspiring, to say the least, and in left field I have to think the Cardinals will either succeed in resigning Matt Holliday or take their chances with an internal option. In my ever so humble opinion, any substantial upgrades the Cards may make this offseason will likely have to come through making a trade. So just how bare is the cupboard?

Well, to be honest, pretty bare. Last year's deals did a fair job wiping out much of the depth the Cards had cultivated at the top of the system, particularly amongst the ranks of right-handed relief pitchers. Nonetheless, there are still a few names at both the major and minor league levels who just might be of interest to any potential trade partners.

Let's start with the major leaguers, shall we?

Skip Schumaker- Yes, that's right, I went right to that. Of all the players on the Cards' major league roster, Skip probably presents the best option for a player to be traded. Skip is perhaps the most average major league player you're ever going to see (his OPS+ in 2009 was 101; career it's 99), and as long as he's cheap, there's some definite value in that. On the other hand, given that he is so remarkably mediocre, Skip's spot on the roster is also one of those places you could gain some of that marginal advantage great teams so rely on. His offense is almost perfectly average, his defense is below-average at second; add in the positional adjustment and you have a player who is as average as average can be.

Now, how much value does Skip really have? Well, that's tough to say, honestly, but when you look at how affordable he is, it's certainly worth shopping him around, I would think. Schumaker is arbitration-eligible this season after making a little over 400K in 2009.

Ryan Ludwick- And even more controversial, I should think! Ha ha!

Actually, here's the thing about Ryan Ludwick: last season, he looked too valuable to trade. He was cheap, he was awesome, he seemed to have finally gotten past all the injuries which had kept him down for so long, what's not to like? Now, though, the picture is much cloudier. Luddy had a down season in which he looked a whole lot more like Skip Schumaker's big brother than a darkhorse MVP candidate. He's also on the verge of becoming much more expensive; Ludwick made $3.7 million in 2009 and will likely receive another decent boost this year.

The real problem with dealing Ludwick now is you would likely be selling a bit low; personally, I think he's a good candidate for a nice little bounceback year in 2010. On the other hand, Ryan is also not exactly a young ballplayer at this point, and expecting him to duplicate his 2008 performance is an extremely bad bet. If there's a good return to be had out there, I think you might very well have to consider moving him.

Mitchell Boggs- Yeah, I know. When Boggs is third on the list, that's probably not a good sign. Nonetheless, with the way Boggs pitched out of the bullpen late in the season, it isn't unfathomable some team might want him as a seventh or eighth inning arm. (Of course, the Cardinals would probably be well served to simply keep him and use him in that role, but that's not really the point of this exercise, now is it?)

Boggs is cheap, and will remain so for a couple more years. He has less than one year of major league service time, so he won't come up for arbitration for probably two more seasons. He's always had an exciting arm, and his stuff seemed to play up even further in relief. He isn't a principle trade piece, by any means, but could certainly bring some value as a secondary inclusion.

Okay, I'm going to level with you. That's pretty much it at the major league level. Trading Colby just doesn't make any sense at all, I can't imagine the Cards like Tyler Greene so much they would consider moving Brendan Ryan, and all the other positions are either filled with core players (Albert, Yadi), or guys who don't really have enough track record to be valuable yet. (see also David Freese and the like)

You know what? My laptop battery is almost dead, and I'm running out of time, folks. I'll just have to worry about the minor league trade bait some other time. Discuss amongst yourselves.

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

the red baron — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:36:49 -0000

More photos » by MARY BUTKUS - AP

16 days ago: FILE -- This is a Sept. 28, 1997, file photo showing St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, left, giving first baseman, Mark McGwire a hug after the Cardinals defeated the Chicago Cubs 2-1 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The Cardinals have scheduled a news conference Monday, Oct. 26, 2009, amid reports that La Russa will return for a 15th season as manager, and possibly bring Mark McGwire as hitting coach. (AP Photo/Mary Butkus, File)

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Hey, guys. I'm not sure if anybody is going to put up a main thread today; Dan is (I assume), still off in the Far East somewhere attempting to bring us back some pitching talent, so just in case, I'll toss up this thread for everybody to use. Discuss whatever you like.

News of the moment:

I think the McGwire talk has mostly been pretty well covered, but what about the rest of the coaching staff? Dave Duncan is back after his hissy fit, Jose Oquendo still doesn't seem to be getting much love for other team's managerial jobs. Am I the only one a little nonplussed by the lack of new coaching blood?

Aroldis Chapman looks to be too expensive for the Cards. Not surprised, but it is concerning.

Mike Scioscia is pissed about the postseason schedule. I have to say, I agree. No way in hell this shit should take a month.

I'll see you all tomorrow with a full post.

Oh, and just for JD, a shout-out for his green comment yesterday.

The Sky Is Falling, David Freese is a Cheap Copout, Offseason Shopping List Chat Thread

the red baron — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:03:20 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

Albert Pujols contemplates the mass chaos and crushing depression his right elbow will soon inflict upon an unwitting public. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Good morning, nation of few and many.

So let's see, anything in the news today? Anything, oh, I don't know, maybe Cardinal related? Doesn't seem like there should be, considering the Cards are out of the playoffs, and the Hot Stove season can't really begin in earnest until after the arbitration deadlines and the like, so I just can't imagine what there might be to talk about this-

Oh, that. Yeah.

Seems Albert Pujols is going under the knife sometime today to have a bit of elbow work done. I guess that's newsworthy.

Hmm. What else? What else what else what else? Oh, yeah. Looks like David Freese is heading into Spring Training 2010 as the favourite to win the third base job. I find this to be an interesting story, to say the least. See, Tony La Russa never seemed all that keen on Freese, certainly not in that let's-hand-this-kid-a-job sort of way, up until just recently. Specifically, Freese playing catcher on the last day of the regular season seems to have won over the old grouch; Tony does love guys who are willing to do absolutely anything to contribute, after all. Of course, this leaves us with an interesting paradox: it appears David Freese may very well have put himself in the lead of the third base derby by not playing third base. Curious.

Of course, the bitching about Freese being the cheaper option is already beginning in some circles. It's fascinating to note how quickly the midseason trades and subsequent payroll boost of 2009 have already fallen out of the general consciousness of your average Post-Dispatch commenter.

Which brings us to the task at hand. I have some spare time, you have a need to be entertained, so let's have us a chat. Haven't done one in a while, so it seems as good a time as any. We should probably try to focus on the team's needs for the offseason, and just what they might do to best fill those needs, but I somehow doubt I, or you, will be able to maintain any kind of real focus. (Just basing on past experience.)

I should be here until about 12:30 or 1:00. Let's chat.

The Baron's Playlist for the 21st of October, 2009

"Buggin'"- The Flaming Lips (at long last, The Soft Bulletin has been reissued on vinyl! Hooray!)

"Barbarella" - Scott Weiland (It's a crime no one knows this song exists.)

"Corvette Bummer" - Beck (From one of the three greatest singles ever released.)

"Solomon Jones" - Aceyalone

And by the way, who the fuck is Cheryl Cole, and why does she keep showing up in my sidebar news feed?

Trader Mo Redux

the red baron — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:38:29 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Yep, that's right. Jeff Fucking Weaver. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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The worst part was I really believed in this team.

I'm actually of two minds, really; the analyst side of me, the part that studies the game and writes about it for a living, never honestly thought this team a legitimate title contender. I always said the offense was undependable and the bullpen just didn't have the kind of shutdown arms that lead to postseason success. You can go back and read the published record, too; I always thought the Cards had a chance, yes, but I never bought into them as a juggernaut in the 2004 mold.

The problem comes when you consider the other side, the fan side, of the equation. The fan in me didn't see those things, didn't fear the bullpen. In my heart, I thought the Cards could would most definitely absolutely will turn it on come playoff time. Tony La Russa teams don't get knocked out in the divisional series, after all; La Russa's overall postseason record may not be the stuff of legend, but his record in the NLDS certainly is. In my mind, the Cards' offense was wildly inconsistent and capable of being shut down at any moment; in my heart, the holy trinity of PujolsHollidayLudwick would crush the spirits and WPAs of any and all opponents. In my mind, Ryan Franklin had saved only a single game in the final month of the season and was looking more and more like fodder for the glue factory; in my heart he was ready to etch his name indelibly into Cardinal lore with a strikeout and a photograph as teammates leapt and capered on their way toward the victory pile on the mound.

So when I say I believed in this team, understand I mean it halfway, and somehow that's worse than all the way. If I had thought this team the greatest of all time and then watched the collapse, perhaps I could mourn properly; begin with shock and disbelief, then move right on through anger at the shoddy play and the zombified end to depression for the end of the season and finally to acceptance of our fate as a team not quite as good as it looked. But this halfway belief is awful; I know I should have known better because I did know better, yet I was still just as shocked and horrified when I turned out to be right. I'm left feeling vindicated and miserable in vindication.

But any way you wish to slice things, the season is now over. The time has now come to look ahead, not back, to move forward, not sideways, and always whirling, whirling toward the future. But before we can look forward, we have to do just a bit more hindsighting.

The 2009 season will be forever defined, for better or for worse, by the trades that were made. The Cards went all in this season, only to see it all fall apart when the playoffs arrived. That's the problem with going all in, of course, and the reason so many of us (myself included), weren't huge fans of the Matt Holliday deal long before he became Public Enemy #1 in Cardinal Nation for trying to catch a humpback liner with his genitals; going all in is great if you win, because flags do in fact fly forever, but if you come up a little short, there is no Plan B.

So what, exactly, did the Cardinals gain, and what did they lose? Let's do us a little redux here of the deals made and see where we stand at the end of this ultimately frustrating 2009 season, shall we?

The Khalil Greene Trade

I'll be the first to admit it: I was a huge fan of this deal at the time. I was. I thought Greene to be a significantly undervalued player whose numbers were being artificially suppressed by his home ballpark. Add in a truly brutal 2008 campaign that no ballpark could have made look any better, and you had a player ripe for a renaissance. I felt like the inclusion of a player to be named later in the deal made the price a bit on the high side, considering just how awful Greene's numbers were, but I was still quite excited about the Cardinals' new shortstop.

Well, see, there's a little problem with that.

We were all, of course, unaware at the time Khalil's problems went a little deeper than a declining slugging percentage. For the life of me, I still can't quite figure out if I should blame Johnny Mo and Co. for not being more aware of Khalil's penchant for long sleeves and Bauhaus records or not. On the one hand, you want to be pissed they didn't do their due diligence and somehow missed the thing, but on the other, psychological problems aren't like a frayed rotator cuff. There's no magical scan that reveals when someone is hurting on the inside, and it isn't as if his teammates were jumping at the chance to talk about how messed up Khalil is.

What Was Given Up: Luke Gregerson, RHP Mark Worrell, RHP

Okay, so we can put this one solidly in the loss column. Worrell clearly had no place in the organisation after he aired his dirty laundry publicly last offseason, a factor which helped make me even more positive on the deal when it was made. Unfortunately, the player to be named later turned out to be Gregerson, a guy plenty of prospect-watchers really liked, and he turned out to be pretty damned good.

In 75 inning this season, Gregerson was absolutely brilliant, posting a 2.50 FIP for the Padres. He is pitching in a park which heavily suppresses home runs, so he does get a bit of a boost there, but he also struck out over eleven batters per nine innings, which so far as I know is at least fairly okay. What hurts worse is the fact the Cardinals biggest weakness by the end of the season, right-handed relief, just happens to be the exact demographic Gregerson belongs to. (You're going to notice a pattern here.) Any and all contributions the Padres receive from Mark Worrell are secondary at this point; San Diego already received a full season of essentially closer-level production for free in exchange for the Marquis de SAD.

The Future: The Cardinals get nothing when Khalil walks. Not so good, Mo.

The Mark DeRosa Trade

This one I had mixed feelings on from the very start. I felt the Cardinals did a fine job of identifying an area of weakness and acting to bring a player in to address that weakness, but I also felt they gave up far too much in return for said player. (Again, you may notice a theme in this vein.) DeRosa seemed like such an ideal fit, though, that I mostly kept such concerns to myself. The Cards needed someone better than Thursty Joe at third base, and Mark DeRosa plays third base, among other things. The Cards needed help hitting left-handed pitching, and Mark DeRosa has typically murdered lefties. On top of that, he had a reputation as an outstanding clubhouse guy, and his interviews are pure gold.

Sadly, DeRosa simply wasn't very good for the Cardinals. His OBP was atrocious, he struggled to do anything but hit home runs the first month or so, then went whole hog and struggled to do that, too. His defense wasn't bad, but it wasn't really all that good, either. Bottom line, Mark DeRosa in a Cardinal uniform just wasn't as cool as a lot of people thought it was going to be.

What Was Given Up: Chris Perez, RHP Jess Todd, RHP

Oy. This one really hurts. The Cards sent Chris Perez and Jess Todd to the Indians in exchange for Mr. Of the Rose, and once again, those two players fall squarely into that category of "Guys the Cards Sure Could Use More Of Now." Both are right-handed relievers, and both are solid bets to be very good pitchers going forward, I do believe.

Perez in particular is a painful loss, as he has better stuff than anyone in the Cardinal bullpen as it stands right now, and showed plenty of signs of putting it all together for the Indians. He had a truly remarkable run for almost two months, as he didn't surrender a single run from the 8th of July through the 5th of September. Perez appeared in 20 games during that time frame, covering 20.2 innings, and walked only 5 hitters. He didn't issue a free pass for almost a month, from the 9th of August to the 5th of September. Unfortunately, Perez did have a rough September overall, particularly in the middle of the month, but that doesn't change the fact he was essentially untouchable for the two months prior. We could debate why Perez didn't have more success here until the cows come home, but the fact remains he was an extremely valuable reliever for Cleveland, and I expect big things from Perez as soon as 2010.

Jess Todd, formerly slated to become Destroyer of Worlds for St. Louis, had a bit of a rough go in his first couple tastes of the major leagues. We all saw what happened to him when he made his major league debut with the Cardinals, and it didn't get appreciably better for Todd with the Indians, as he posted a 7.40 ERA in 20.2 innings with them. That does come with a 4.31 FIP and a BABIP of .431 (Huh. What an odd coincidence.), so improvement should come even if Todd does the exact same thing next year he did this season. Of course, I personally don't expect him to do the exact same thing next season, I expect him to adjust to the big leagues and take off as an excellent setup reliever. He doesn't have the stuff of Perez, nor is he going to post the gaudy strikeout totals of Gregerson, but I see Todd in an eighth inning role sometime in the near future, and I see him doing a hell of a job at it.

The Future: This is actually the best part of the deal, as DeRosa is a Type B free agent. The Cards offer him arbitration and he signs somewhere else, they receive a supplemental round draft pick, which, incidentally, is the round in which Chris Perez was selected to begin with. So there is some value at least coming there. (Of course, DeRo could screw the pooch on that one by accepting arbitration, but hey, you pay your money and you take your chances.)

The Matt Holliday Trade

Ah, and now we come to the big one. (Did I hear a That's What She Said in the back? I believe I did! Hallelujah!) The deal for Matt Holliday is, so far, the defining moment of Mozeliak's tenure as GM; the moment in which Mr. Mo made his mark. What that mark may be exactly is still to be determined, but for those who complained all through Mo's first year-plus of stewardship that he hadn't really done anything, here you go. He certainly did something this time.

I won't lie; I didn't really like the Holliday deal when it was made, and I don't like it all that well now. I know I was in the definite minority back in July, but I thought the Cardinals massively overpaid for Holliday's services. That being said, the man is still the best left fielder in the game and represents a potent complement to Albert Pujols in the middle of the lineup.

What Was Given Up: Brett Wallace, 3B Shane Peterson, OF Clayton Mortensen, RHP

Let's start with the biggest component, both literally and figuratively: Brett Wallace. There's been an extraordinary amount of ink and bandwidth both used already to discuss the Walrus, and the song remains the same: at the plate, he's a hell of a hitter. As a third baseman, he's a hell of a hitter.

The thing about Wallace is this: we always knew he was drafted to be traded at some point in time. Even the few scouts who liked his chances of sticking at third were careful to specify only in the short term; the man was moving across the diamond eventually. Even so, if he had managed to play third at anything less than a Bruanian pace, Wallace's bat would make him a very, very valuable player.

And for what it's worth, Total Zone Rating (the only defensive metric we really have for minor league guys), had Wallace as almost exactly an average defender at the hot corner this season. I know, I know, that can't possibly be right, because I saw him play there one day and he didn't get to a ball to his left he should have, and my brother said he misses those all the time and his best friend Todd said he talked to Wallace one time and he said he hated third base so much because he was so bad at it he was considering retiring rather than continue to embarrass himself on a nightly basis. Regardless of what we might think anecdotally, the numbers have Wallace as something less than a total disaster, and when it comes to defense, I trust the numbers more than my own eyes. Defense is just too hard to judge. So what we have is a player who has a bat that should carry him wherever he wants to go, and who should be able to play third base for at least a couple years at a level far short of that Braunian pace I was speaking of earlier. Sounds about right, doesn't it?

Add to Wallace Clay Mortensen and Shane Peterson, and you begin to have a pretty remarkable haul of talent going out for Matt Holliday. Mortensen himself will likely never be anything more than a #5 starter (though I still think there's a chance he could be better), but a #5 starter for free is still all kinds of valuable. As long as he can keep himself out of trouble with Johnny Law I think Mort should be fine.

More interesting to me, honestly, is Shane Peterson. I was never much of a fan of Peterson, to be honest (I never really likedhis swing; funny hand load and all), but since the trade I've gone and taken a closer look, and I think I may have missed the boat here. Peterson began the year in High-A Palm Beach, and posted an OPS near .800, no mean feat in that ballpark and that league. He moved up to Springfield and did alright in limited time there before he was traded. He went to Midland, the A's Double-A affiliate, and hit fairly well, with an OPS of .727. Certainly not a world-beating performance, by any means, but also not bad for a 21 year old playing in Double A for the first time.

Peterson is a guy who isn't going to hit for a ton of power, particularly of the over-the-fence variety, but he should hit plenty of doubles. He isn't a burner by any means, but he's got the wheels he could probably play center if necessary. He has just enough arm to play right field, though he' s played mostly left in his pro career. His walk rate is decent but not great, but you would think a coaching staff who stressed a good approach at the plate could be helpful with that. In short, Peterson doesn't do anything outstanding, but he does most things pretty well. He's literally almost the perfect Oakland player. I fully expect him to do very well in the A's organisation, where the value of getting on base will be heavily stressed.

The Future: When (or if, I suppose), Holliday heads out for the territories, he will do so as a Type A free agent. The Cards will receive the first round pick of whatever team signs him, unless said team picks in the first fifteen. Then it becomes their second round pick, and the whole thing just takes even one more step downward. Still, the fact Holliday could potentially bring back a first round pick and one in the supplemental goes a long way toward removing some of the sting of the package given up for him. Well, maybe not a long way, but some ways, anyway.

I'm just going to skip over the trade involving Chris Duncan and Deathgaze. The Cards got a free infielder with a decent bat and bad range, and the Red Sox got the chance to ensure Dave Duncan will never try to force his way into their organisation. Win all around.

So to sum up, the Cardinals this year gave up four right-handed relievers, two of whom could be real impact guys int he near future I think. Todd may be an impact guy too, but I think it might be another year or two before he gets there. We look at the big club's bullpen for 2010, and I have to say I'm a little concerned you might be able to build a better 'pen from guys the Cards traded away this year than what they still have.

The Cards also gave up their number one prospect, and the player most likely to make an impact playing at third base in 2010. David Freese is now the likely front-runner for the job, assuming both Troy Glaus and Mark DeRosa are gone, and while Freese is severely underrated by many, I think, he's no Brett Wallace.

So once again I'll say it: this is the problem with going all in. The Cards went all in this season trying to take advantage of the fact Chris Carpenter was fully healthy after two seasons on the shelf and Adam Wainwright was pitching at a Cy Young level, and I can't really blame them. The farm system was in plenty good shape to absorb the hit, and the big club looked ever so close to being a real contender. Now we have most of October left to consider how much talent left the organisation this year in return for the chance to pay free agents to do the same job in 2010 the kids we traded away could have done for free.

In the end, I said I can't blame them, and that's exactly what I mean. I can't say I wouldn't have done the same thing (except I wouldn't have; in fact, i would always err on the side of holding on to my prospects, and would probably be a terrible GM who could never quite get over the hump), but the reality is this: the bullpen is an areaof huge concern for the Cardinals, and they trade three players who could help with that next year. Third base is a less pressing concern, but of no less import; the lineup needs production, and if Holliday walks I'm a little unsure where it's going to come from.

So I ask you all, without going down the road of how much we all hate Matt Holliday for making an error and having the temerity to take bad at-bats for three whole games, was it worth it? Was the remarkable run the Cardinals went on in August worth seeing Brett Wallace knock around AL West pitching for the next couple years? Was ruining the Cubs' good time at the top of the division worth seeing Ryan Franklin try to close out games a month past his expiration date, all the while knowing he was the Cardinals' best option still in a Cardinal uniform? Does the promise of extra draft picks take the sting out for you, or do you wish for a 'Bird, maybe not in the hand, but at least near enough to reach out and grab if necessary?

Was it worth it?

Oops, and I forgot a playlist.

The Baron's Playlist for the 14th of October, 2009

"The Ghost" - Deer Tick

"Actor Out of Work" - St. Vincent

"It Just Is" - Rilo Kiley

"My Funny Valentine" - Gerry Mulligan Quartet w/ Chet Baker

Game 158(?) Overflow

the red baron — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:08:03 -0000

Go Cards go.

Wednesday Afternoon/ Early Game Open Thread -- 30th September, 2009

the red baron — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:46:52 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

about 1 month ago: St. Louis Cardinals' David Freese rounds the bases after hitting a home run off Cincinnati Reds reliever Ramon Ramirez in the ninth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Cincinnati. Cincinnati won 7-2. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

Browse more photos »

Hey, everybody. Please forgive the late and rushed nature of this, but I've had a bit of an emergency come up today and I'm still dealing with it.

To review:

--Kind of cool to see David Freese hit his first home run. It's looking more and more as if the Cardinals are willing to let Mark DeRosa walk after the season, in which case they're going to need an internal candidate to step up. Freese would appear to be the lead guy at the moment, with Brett Wallace gone and Allen Craig in limbo and Joe Mather not really a third baseman.

--I hate the Cincinnati Reds. I also kind of hate the city of Cincinnati just in general, but that's a separate issue.

--It's a shame the Cards couldn't have tried to pry Homer Bailey away from the Reds when his stock was at its lowest. He still has a great arm and looks as if he may be putting it together. He isn't a finished product yet, by any means, but he's also still only 23 years old and extremely talented. A nice lesson to be had here in not moving talent just because it doesn't come along as quickly as you might have hoped.

-- I don't ever, ever, ever want to see Joel Pineiro face Jay Bruce again. Ever. I suppose we all knew Jo-El would eventually have a start like that, where he just couldn't keep the ball in the park, but I also thought when it happened it would be because he couldn't keep the ball down. Instead, the exact opposite happened: all the home runs Pineiro gave up last night came on pitches at the knees or below. I wonder if there's a lesson here as well, something about hitters becoming too comfortable when all of your pitches are in the same area. Or then again, maybe Jay Bruce is just good at golfing the ball out of the park.

That's all I've got, folks. Take care and I'll have an overflow thread up sometime around 7:30; I'm not expecting a huge traffic day here, as the doldrums of clinching and seeing the B team have set in.

Oh, a playlist. Here.

"All You Need is Hate" - The Delgados

"My Funny Valentine" - The Gerry Mulligan Quartet

"Hard Candy" - Rialto

"Winning" - Emily Haines and the Soft Skeleton

Game 153 Overflow 2

the red baron — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:47:36 -0000

Is it safe?

Game 153 Overflow

the red baron — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:46:19 -0000

Preprogrammed for you protection.