SB Nation User Blog: the red baron

'Twas the Wednesday Before Christmas

the red baron — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:20:46 -0000

This picture is apropos of absolutely nothing. However, I really like it. So there.

This past Sunday, I met my father at Best Buy to help him do his Christmas shopping. I do this every year; it's become sort of a tradition. The only thing somewhat different this year was that my younger brother Ryan decided he would accompany us.

So we go to Best Buy, pick out a laptop for my mother, pick out a camera for Ryan's girlfriend, pick out a couple Wii games for my cousin's youngest son. A good haul, really. We stopped for breakfast, then headed into the mall for further shopping. Ryan wanted to buy his girlfriend a bracelet, so we headed for the highest concentration of jewelry stores and stores who sell jewelry in the area.

At the mall, we happened upon something really interesting. It was a virtual batting cage, with a hollow plastic bat and a big video screen where the pitcher would appear. For some odd reason, going into this batting cage suddenly seemed like the best idea in the world, so Ryan and I decided we would take a shot. At this point, we both discovered neither of us had even a single one dollar bill; I had two twenties and Ryan had a wad of tens and twenties to do his shopping with. So my father digs out his wallet and hands us both a dollar.

Ryan goes first. The virtual pitcher throws ten pitches for a dollar, and you swing the bat as the ball should be crossing the plate. Simple, right? So Ryan stands in, hits the practice pitch out to right-center, then digs in for the real stuff. Of the ten pitches, he puts four over the wall and comes up with a total distance of a little over 3000 feet for all ten.

It's my turn next, so I step in, put in the dollar I got from my dad, and sidle up to the plate from the left side. I taught myself to switch-hit at a very young age (no jokes, now), and was always a much better hitter from the left. The pitcher winds up, throws the practice pitch, and I take a cut. Nothing. Okay, I think, I was clearly a little early. I've got this.

Of the ten pitches thrown, I hit zero home runs, swung and missed four times, and amassed a total distance of just over 1200 feet. Here's the thing about this: I am, far and away, the more athletically inclined of my brother and I. I have spent the majority of my life playing baseball in at least some casual fashion, and, with no false modesty, am reasonably good at it. I've always been better on the mound than at the plate, but I'm really no slouch with the bat either.

So at this point I've turned rather red, due to the fact a large number of people have stopped on their way by to check out the video batting game which has humiliated the man standing inside. I try to leave, but my father insists we try it again. I'm resisting with all my might, but something about being beaten at my own damned game by my little brother is far too grating, and I acquiesce to another round. Dad digs out another two dollars, hands one to me and one to Ryan. Rather than leave the batting cage and risk losing the feel and the groove I was settling into, I turn right around and go again, ignoring the protests of the younger Schafer brother.

This time I decide to bat from the right side. That's probably the problem, I say to myself, I swing a golf club right-handed, and I've played golf several times since I picked up a bat. My lefty swing is just all out of whack. Armed thusly with impregnable and not at all fuzzy logic, I ready myself to demolish my 32-bit tormentor.

I miss the practice pitch, again. I miss the first pitch. I miss the second. The third I make contact with and hit a soft liner to approximately Ronnie Belliard's spot on the field. Now I'm really starting to get upset, the crowd has grown just enough to convince me I'll soon look down and realise I'm in my underwear, and, most shameful of all, I've started to do that thing where in order to fend off the sting of failure you start describing just exactly what was wrong with each failed attempt in a voice loud enough so everyone can hear that yes, you might be failing, but you totally know what the problem is and will totally get it straightened out really soon. I'm not sure why, but loudly describing why you failed functions as a remarkably good blanket against the slings and arrows of your own ego.

Fourth pitch, pop fly to left. Too early, damnit!

Fifth pitch, swing and a miss. Okay, too late on that one. Alright.

Sixth pitch, grounder up the middle. See, now the timing's better, but I'm not sure where I'm supposed to be swinging.

Seventh, another swing and a miss, and I'm verging on blaming the game now. I turn to my brother and question him, whether I was early or late or what. I mean, I just can't tell, I say, trying to draw someone into an empathic bond with my own misery.

Eight pitch, and I make good contact. The ball flies toward the center field wall, long and straight and high and true, only to fall a foot or two short of the seats. Now I've got it, I confidently say to myself, that was much better. The crowd seems less impressed than I apparently am.

Ninth pitch, a weak fly to right. I try to think of something to say, but am unable. I settle for an exasperated, exaggerated sigh, hoping someone will be impressed with my good humour in the face of such abject humiliation.

The last pitch comes, and I take a half-hearted little swing and the ball shoots into the left field stands with roughly the exit velocity of a howitzer shell. I should laugh at this, but I'm just too pissed off. The game congratulates me and gives me a bonus pitch. I suddenly get very excited, take perhaps the largest swing I've ever taken on the bonus pitch, and miss it completely. I slump out of the cage, trying to avoid making eye contact with anyone.

My brother steps back in, and as I watch him, I'm struck by how slowly he's swinging the bat. The pitch comes in, and he sort of just waves the bat gently over the plate and watches as it disappears into the distance. Of his ten pitches this time around, he puts seven in the seats, with the aid of one bonus pitch. His total distance is well over 4000 feet.

I think I've finally figured out the way the game works; Ryan was swinging very easily and crushing the ball, while I was taking actual swings like I was playing a real game of of baseball and consistently getting nowhere fast. It must be something with the way the game senses the bat, and my full, fast swings weren't registering properly.

I turn to my father, and just as I open my mouth ask for another dollar, I'm suddenly struck by what's actually happening. Here I am, a man going on 30 years old, who has lived an often hard and occasionally ugly life, standing in a mall and asking his father for another dollar to try and finally beat his brother at a video game. I have a mortgage and two cats and life insurance, and yet I've turned back into the same kid I was at thirteen, begging my mother for more quarters at Xhilirama because one of the older kids kept kicking my ass on Killer Instinct.

Was this sudden onset of youth a Christmas miracle? No. No it was not. But it was kind of fun, pumping money into a baseball video game in the middle of a sea of humanity. There may or may not be a meaning to be found here; make of it whatever you like.

We ended up stopping at two games, the dinger count 11-1 in favour of my brother. My dad was out of ones, and when he offered to go and get change for a five, I decided I had had enough of being a tweener for one day. We finished up our shopping and each went our separate ways, Ryan mercilessly jabbing me with reminders of his victory as we went.

I had another story I was going to tell this morning, something a bit more like me (you know, Bummerman), but I believe I'll put that one up at my other gig on Thursday. Try to give the Rundown a proper sendoff, if I can. (As of the first of the year, the Rundown will be no more. I've been asked to stay on and write just as part of the Daily RFT, focusing on sports, and so I'm trying to keep an optimistic mindset. I won't lie to you, though; my failure to build a better following is weighing rather heavily on me at the moment.) So I decided to do something a bit lighter here this morning.

That being said, I have a bit of free time today, so let's do a holiday chat. Festivus if you like, Christmas or Hannukah if you prefer. We can talk about whatever you like, be it baseball or booze or Bonanza. Actually, scratch that. I hate Bonanza. Pretty much anything else is fair game, though.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:33:49 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

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I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:24:45 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

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But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Wednesday Afternoon Open

the red baron — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:10:58 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

17 days ago: Former St. Louis Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog talks with the media at a news conference to announce his selection to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the veterans committee, Monday, Dec. 7, 2009, in St. Louis.(AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Hey, guys. Sorry to do this to everyone, but I'm going to have to just put this up as an open thread. My dad's brother, in town to visit my grandfather, started having chest pains this morning. He's in the hospital at the moment undergoing a bypass operation, so I'm stuck here at the hospital for the moment, and just don't have the time or opportunity to post something more substantial. Blurgh.

I do apologise for the lack of anything better, but I hope you'll understand. Take care until I see you again.

-Aaron

Penny for your thoughts overflow thread

the red baron — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 02:03:42 -0000

See, so we've got a thread lamenting the penny headline puns, then a thread with a penny headline pun. We're so very meta here at VEB...

So anything you guys want to talk about, go ahead. The other thread was getting slow.

Also, just to toss this in here, the meanest thing I ever said to anyone was once when I was talking to an ex-girlfriend of mine who was about six months pregnant at the time. (Not mine, by the way.) I started calling here Pregnatron, and after the third time she asked why. I told her it was because she was transforming into a giant, swollen bitch. I feel bad and proud in equal measures when I think about that. How about you?

Enjoy.

A Trip to Arby's

the red baron — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:48:38 -0000

View full size photo »

Hello, everyone. I hope this Wednesday finds you all well.

I decided to put off beginning my look around the NL Central series again this week, seeing as how there is actual, somewhat interesting news to discuss, so it'll just have to wait. The arbitration offers are in, and the Cardinals made offers to three of their four compensation-eligible players. Holliday, Jo-El Pineiro, and Mark DeRosa received offers, while the Cards declined to offer it to Troy Glaus.

I can't really find fault with declining to offer Glaus arbitration, as he's basically a more extreme version of Braden Looper last year. Looper, you'll recall, was eligible to be a Type B free agent, and the Cardinals decided not to make an offer to him and forfeit the draft pick. There was much consternation at the time over the lost draft pick, but at the same time, one couldn't ignore the risk of Looper accepting the arby offer and the Cards being hung with a pitcher they neither particularly wanted nor, to be completely frank, had the space to hold on to. The rest of the story, of course, is Looper went and signed himself a deal with Milwaukee as they attempt to construct some sort of Frankenstein situation composed entirely of former Cardinals mid-rotation starters. Looper then proceeded to have himself a rather awful year, complete with an ERA+ of 77. (Of course, he somehow also managed to go 14-7, so draw your own conclusions.)

As for Glaus, he seems to be all the downside of Looper, but with almost none of the upside. Glaus is on the wrong side of 30, so it isn't as if he's getting better, his health is still a significant concern, and he was frankly less than impressive in the modest number of late-season plate appearances he managed in 2009. If an arby offer had been floated to Glaus, I have absolutely no doubt he would have accepted, and that would not have been a good thing. At this point, I'm not sure he's going to be able to play third base on an everyday basis due to his shoulder problems, and the Cardinals have no need of a right-handed 1B/PH making $5 million+ a year.

On the other hand, I don't think there's any chance in hell of any of the other three accepting their offers. Holliday we know about, and he'll be playing the field for quite a while still before landing in Boston. This is likely the last chance for either Pineiro or DeRosa to land a sizable, multi-year deal, and I have to think both will take advantage of the situation. I suppose there's always the chance Mark of the Rose accepts, looking at it as a one year deal to prove his wrist is sound and he's worth one last three year hurrah somewhere, but I would be a bit surprised. Even if he did go that way, having DeRosa back on one year deal for middling money wouldn't be a bad outcome at all. The dollars aren't really the issue here anyway. The real issue is one would prefer not to offer 34 year old players three year deals if it can be avoided, and arbitration does so quite nicely.

Pineiro will get his money somewhere, and he's welcome to it. We'll always have New York, Jo-El. Thanks for the memories. Also, could I get an autograph? I want the caption to read, "Moar sinkers, men, and into the breach we go! Love, El Pinata." That would be sweet.

All in all, I think the whole arby thing played out about how most of us expected. The Cards made offers to the three players they felt they can trust to refuse it or be worth the deal if accepted, and declined the one player likely to accept and be a drain on resources in 2010. Sometimes the simplest solution is the best and all that.

So how about it, Birdos? Any thoughts on the arbitration situation? I feel bad, because it's probably already been covered somewhere around here, but I had a radiator hose in my car split on me, so I've been dealing with that this morning and got an even later start than usual on this. In hindsight, I should have just gone ahead and put up the Cubs piece early, since it's already done, but I wanted to at least maintain the illusion I'm paying attention.

The Baron's Playlist for the 2nd of December, 2009

"Cuddly Toy" - Harry Nilsson

"Little Secrets" - Passion Pit

"Jacqueline" - The Coral

"Minnie the Moocher" - Cab Calloway

"Somebody Else" - Kubb

The Baron's Third Annual Day Before Thanksgiving Spectacular: the Ghosts of Thanksgivings Past

the red baron — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:07:56 -0000

Yesterday I decided to make a batch of chocolate chip cookies. I dragged out my mixer, washed off the dust which had accumulated since its last annual appearance in my house, and began laying out ingredients. I then discovered, to my horror, I didn't have enough flour to make the cookies. So I headed to the grocery store, bought flour, came home, and proceeded to make cookies. Sadly, I had neglected to check the rest of the ingredient list before I left the first time, and now found myself sans pecans. I didn't feel like driving to the store again, so I made the cookies without nuts, and I have to say, they sort of suck.

There are two morals to this story. One, you should always check everything on a list before going to the store, and two, sometimes no matter how hard you try the best you're going to do is suck. I think those are both good lessons.

******

I had a full post all ready to go for this morning, even typed it up in Word and everything the other day. I was planning on starting a multi-part series covering all the teams in the National League Central and what their offseasons should, could, and most likely will, look like. However, I learned my lesson a couple years back with a very involved Thanksgiving post: avoid putting the really big stuff up on or around a holiday.

If you've spent more than 20 minutes researching something, you don't want it to get lost in the shuffle of people just checking the site in between traveling and cooking and trying to remember which of their aunt's former husbands they aren't supposed to bring up this year. No, just stick with the wistful, sad, and occasionally off-putting short stories of alienation and loneliness, and you're golden. Again, I think this is an excellent lesson.

I bring you, for your reading pleasure, the Thanksgiving posts of Viva El Birdos past:

The First Thanksgiving - Okay, so that isn't what it's called, nor what it's about, but I like to think of it that way. A blast from the past, all the way back in the waning moment of 2005.

thanksgiving open thread, Lb style- Nineteen comments. Seriously. We've come a long way, baby.

Holiday Wishes. Tidbits. The Draft, two. - My first Thanksgiving post (and source of the lesson I referenced just above), and part of a big series I did about past drafts. Also, I was still doing that weird title thing from my early days when I was just stating what was contained in the post, separated by periods. Not sure why.

Thanks.- My post from last year, in which I learned the previous year's lesson and just got real sad, rather than research anything baseballish. It's kinda my thing.

I am Thankful for... - Chuckb's actual Thanksgiving Day post last year. I wouldn't have done something holiday related if I had realised he wasn't going to take the day off. Interesting to read his thoughts regarding Albert's second MVP award in light of the way his third played out.

*****

A bit of housekeeping: VEB now has an official Twitter feed; twitter.com/@thebirdos be the address. Apparently, someone already has @vivaelbirdos, but it isn't any of us. I, of course, will not be using the Twitter feed much; I can't say good morning in less than 600 characters. (And now that I pull up the page to check the address is correct, I see Dan has already made the same joke. I've become predictable. Hmph. Wake me when I get to kitsch.)

*****

This here's gonna be one of them open thread things; feel free to talk about whatever. Things you're thankful for, the awesomeness of Albert or Carp or A.D.A.M., favourite holiday meals, whatever. I'll be sitting here on my sofa drinking this delicious apple cider I just cooked up for an hour or so (and I hope whatever you're doing you can be so content as I am at this moment), so if anyone's around we can do sort of a half-assed chat if you like.

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you, and I hope the holiday treats you well. Be careful if you're traveling, be kind to those you love, and take a bit of time to tell them the same.

The Baron's Playlist for the 25th of November, 2009: The Early Christmas Kickoff List

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues

"O Tanenbaum" - Vince Guaraldi Trio

"A Change at Christmas (Say it isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips

"Christmas At the Zoo" - the Flaming Lips

"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey

"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby

And yes, for the record, I am ashamed of making a Christmas playlist the day before Thanksgiving, but there just aren't many Thanksgiving songs, never mind good ones. Hell, even trying to build a list around songs with "Thanks" featured prominently was a bitch. Unless, of course, you wanted me to resort to that awful Alanis Morissette song. (Oh, and I'll warn you now: at some point in the coming weeks, I'll make up a full album-sized playlist of all my favourite Christmas songs. It's going to be ever so irritating.)

November Rain

the red baron — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 13:35:13 -0000

Ferris wheels still cheer me up.

View full size photo »

I'm sitting in my living room staring out on a grey and very nasty November morning. Ordinarily, I welcome such inclement weather; I usually love the rain and the clouds and the cold whistling wind. However, I have an awful day ahead of me, including a trip to traffic court in Webster Groves this evening, and I just can't bring myself to work up any sort of real cheer.

This past weekend I went to see a movie at the St. Louis Film Festival with a friend of mine named Alex. (By the way, huge plug for the Festival; if you've never been, go and buy a ticket to something. Doesn't matter what. Just go and see something you wouldn't ordinarily see. I promise it will be a good experience.) Alex is a girl, and a remarkably pretty one at that. She's also most likely reading this, as she thinks the things I write are funny (even when they aren't meant to be), which makes what I'm about to dwell on potentially uncomfortable, but I don't particularly care.

It doesn't matter what the film was for the story; it was depressing and wrenching and about people thousands of miles away. It only matters the theatre was dark and warm and Alex and I were sharing a soda back and forth between us. And by sharing, I mean she was drinking what was supposed to be my soda. She had refused to pay the price for a soda of her own, claiming extortion on the part of the theatre, and refused my offer of a beverage, claiming she wouldn't allow me to try and extract the price of a medium Pepsi from her in sexual favours at a later date. It only matters she said that last to me with a wink and a smile she knows could make me do anything in the world for her, if only she would say the word.

So there I sat, trying desperately to concentrate on genocide in a far-off land instead of the taste of cherry chap stick on the straw, and I found myself thinking about the decisions we make in life, and how sometimes no matter how right you think you are, you're going to lose either way.

I suppose it's fairly obvious by now how I feel about Alex, and to what extent those feelings are returned. She lives with a man, a decent and fine man at that, who gives her anything she could ask. They're planning to get married sometime early next year, perhaps March. I'm sure it will be lovely, and I'm sure I'll be invited. I'm also sure I'm booked solid whatever day it might be.

A couple years back, I had my chance with Alex. We had been friends for quite some time, but it had never gone any farther. I had met her when dating her former roommate, and that set the tone for the relationship. We were always friendly, mildly flirty at the most, and there was always a wall between us at the end of the night. I worked up my courage finally one night in August, and told her I wanted her. She feigned surprise, but she's a lousy actress. Still, I had my answer.

As the summer ended and turned into autumn, something very gradually began to change between us. We were both single at the same time for the first time since we had met, for one thing, but it was more than that. She seemed to have reconsidered, and decided maybe that wall at the end of the night didn't need to be there after all. She kissed me one night in late September, a quick brush on the lips only, and she pulled away when I tried to kiss her back. It was electrifying all the same.

At the same time, a girl named Angie came back into my life. We had dated years before; she loved me as much as a woman can love a man, and I loved her as much as I'm capable of loving anyone, which unfortunately isn't much. She told me she needed someone who actually cared about her, and our time together was over. I moved on, she moved away. Still, we saw each other every time she came to town, and somewhere along the line I just might have fallen in love with her for real.

It was the fall of 2007, and Angie called me up one night and told me we were going to be together. She didn't ask, as she had long ago learned asking me to live simply doesn't work. She had decided we were going to make a proper go of it, and now she was telling me, and that was that.

I called Alex the next day and told her what happened, and asked her how she felt. She said the bravest thing I've ever heard anyone say, I think.

"I'll be here if you call, and we can be together. But I'm not going to wait for you and hope."

I made my choice; I didn't call Alex back for a long time. When I did, I told her I was sorry, and she laughed at me.

"I told you I wouldn't wait around, Aaron. You made your choice." And that was all.

I moved on with my life and lost it all when Angie was killed. Alex moved on and found someone dependable and solid and not at all like me who makes her happy. And so now I sit in a darkened theatre with a girl I desperately wish was not my friend and try to ignore how her fingers touch mine just ever so slightly each time she passes my soda back to me. Her fiance knows how I feel and he doesn't care. He trusts both of us, which makes me so angry I occasionally see black spots in front of my eyes.

Still, I don't regret the choice I made. I did the best I could with what I had at the time. If I had known how short my time with Angie would be, would I have chosen differently? I can't answer that, but I don't think so. It was love, and it was good, no matter how brief. What would I have had with Alex? I don't know, and sadly, I never will. She long ago forgave me for choosing someone else, but to paraphrase Jenny Lewis, she'll never let me in again.

Why am I telling you all this? To be honest, partially because it's simply what I do. I may be almost impossible to get close to in real life, but I have no problem writing painfully intimate details down and sending them out into the void for anonymous consumption. I don't know what it says about me, but I'm sure it isn't good. However, I also had a point to this story.

I had meant to relate a shorter version of this story to you and then use it to discuss the fast approaching free agency of Matt Holliday. The Cards made their choice with a player they coveted already, rather than seeing how things would work with what they had on the way, and now they have to live with that decision. They knew perfectly well there were no guarantees things would work out, but they chose to take that risk anyhow. But after telling the story, I don't want to talk about that now. It's November and it's raining and I am all alone in an empty house staring at a bad day. Writing this post has turned out to be an appallingly bad idea. So let's talk about something else, shall we?

*************

The Manager of the Year awards will be announced today in both the National and American Leagues; only one of them is really an interesting discussion. The National League award is pretty much a foregone conclusion by this point, I believe; Jim Tracy led his Rockies to an astounding turnaround this season after they had struggled badly under Clint Hurdle for the early portion of the season. When Tracy took over, the Rockies were 18-28. They went 74-42 the rest of the way, somehow riding a managerial change to temporary juggernaut status.

Fredi Gonzalez of the Marlins is probably the only other serious candidate for the award, as he managed the Marlins to an 87-75 record with a payroll just a hair above Alex Rodriguez' annual salary. He'll probably get a few votes based on the notion of him doing more with less, but I don't think there's any way Gonzalez beats out Tracy this year. Maybe in another year or two after the Marlins have traded Chris Coghlan and Josh Johnson and Cameron Maybin away and make a run at the wild card with the resulting pieces. Until then, Fredi will just have to bide his time.

I suppose our own Tony La Russa is a candidate, seeing as how all the national media sources are listing him as one, but I'm not really sure why. Years like 2002 I can see, when Tony had to pull a team back from the brink of disaster, or 2004, when he captained a team which just completely steamrolled everyone, but I'm not really sure about this season. The Cards were a very good, very talented team who were bolstered by a midseason acquisition and then fell apart late in the season. Nothing in there says to me, "This guy was the best manager in the NL this year." Maybe Mo could win executive of the year or something for doing so much to improve his team (though he did also potentially cripple it for the next few years, I suppose), but I don't think La Russa has any claim on the managerial award. Not saying he's a bad manager or never deserves to win MOY, but I definitely don't think he's that guy this year.

In the American League, there's a bit more in the way of interesting storylines, with Mike Scioscia seemingly the clubhouse leader. Personally, I would have to agree with that, and I'll even go so far as to postulate an axiom on the subject: When you have a player die during the season and you still make the playoffs, you win Manager of the Year. Automatically.

I don't mean to be flippant, of course; the death of Nick Adenhart early in the season was an horrific blow to the Angles, and Scioscia somehow managed to keep that team together and get them to excel. It's the sort of performance you hope never to have to see, and can only stand in awe when such a performance does, in fact, become necessary. Toss in the fact the Angels were absolutely ravaged by injuries for most of the season, and I don't really see how Scioscia doesn't win.

However, there are some other intriguing candidates, moreso than in the NL, I think. Two Rons, no waiting, for instance. Ron Gardenhire of the Twins and Ron Washington of the Rangers both did outstanding jobs getting their teams to play ball that was probably better than their talent level. Washington should get some sort of award for moving Michael Young to third base alone. Gardenhire managed to push his team into the playoffs after losing one of their two best hitters for the stretch run and having a chronically undermanned starting rotation. Very impressive on quite a few levels.

I would also throw Don Wakumatsu in Seattle into the mix. He probably didn't go as above and beyond as some of the other guys on this list, he did manage to begin the process of getting the Mariners turned around, and that's no mean feat. Give him another year or two and he should win at least one of these awards when Seattle wins the division. I think Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik should get most of the credit this year, though, if only because he realised what a boon Franklin Gutierrez would be.(Also, I should get some credit for spelling his name correctly.) The Bill Bavasi era is quickly being forgotten in Seattle, and that is a beautiful thing.

I will say this, however: if Joe Fucking Girardi wins the AL Manager of the Year award, I will personally lay waste to the offices of Major League Baseball with my telekinetic powers. I keep hearing Girardi's name brought up, and it's really, really beginning to piss me off. Oh, so he had to deal with A-Rod's steroid story early in the season? Well, Jesus ate a can of beans, boys, that's tough! He also was given the largest payroll in the sport and the best roster and a golden toilet. Seriously. I read it on the web somewhere. And as for his brilliant tactical brilliance in the playoffs, I can't imagine it's really all that tough to say, "Here you go, Mariano." It's like one of those Ron Popeil cooking devices where you set it and forget it while the Rotisablaster 9000 does all the work. Managing the Yankee bullpen in October is the definition of autopilot, so don't use that argument. Do you hear me, so-called experts?!

So anyway, it should be Jim Tracy and Mike Scioscia, and I think it probably will be.

Oh, and congratulations to Zack Greinke on his Cy Young award. It's Actually Inspring (as opposed to Lifetime Original Movie Inspiring or ESPN Saturday Morning Fluff Piece Inspiring, neither of which are nearly as good), to see someone with such serious issues able to put them behind him and accomplish something so amazing. I have to admit, I'm a little surprised the voters got this one right; I was expecting CC Sabathia to win it with the logic he was the Best Pitcher on the Best Team or some other such nonsense.

Sorry for the rather uneven tone of today's post, folks. It was not my intention when I set out. I've decided against deleting it, though, just because. It's honest, and that has to be worth something. Plus, it's not every day you get to witness someone go almost completely off the rails, right?

The Baron's Playlist for the 18th of November, 2009

"On the Bus Mall" - The Decemberists

"Dishes" - Pulp

"If Loving You is Wrong" - Luther Ingram (The pride of Alton, Illinois, bitches!)

"Chances Are" - Bob Marley and the Wailers

"Worm Mountain" - The Flaming Lips (After listening to the full Embryonic album, I've changed my opinion. It's a fucking masterpiece, plain and simple.)

Oh, and also: you could construe the title of this post as an addendum to the playlist if you were so inclined. Just saying.

The Bull Market

the red baron — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:04:20 -0000

More photos » AP

Whitey Herzog will be on the ballot for the Hall of Fame this winter. I ignored this bit of news in favour of complete rambling nonsense.

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So just say for a second you were the General Manager of a major league baseball team, and you've got a rather substantial amount of money to spend. Say also, while we're hypotheticizing here, that you are facing a truly awful free agent class. Okay. Got it? Now, say your name is, um, Ron Fobaylock. So here you are, Mr. Fobaylock, with more money to spend than you've ever had up to this point in your tenure as a GM, and just look at the detritus you have to choose from! So, what would you do?

Such is the conundrum faced by Johnny Mo this offseason. Sure, he's got the money, but what's he going to spend it on? We've all seen the lists of free agents by now, and let's face it: what the Cardinals need, there just ain't a whole lot of out there. The Cards need a left fielder, and there are three really attractive options: Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Mike Cameron. Unfortunately, all three have issues. It's looking less and less likely Holliday has any interest in playing for anything less than a stupid contract. Bay will almost assuredly sign before Holliday, as Scott Boras will want Bay to help set a market for his client. Cameron would seem to be a great fit, but it's also possible he may prefer to go somewhere as a full-time center fielder. It certainly isn't a stretch to believe the Cards might come away without any of the three. And then what? Sorry, but Xavier Nady and his bionic elbow doesn't interest me, and Johnny Damon just isn't worth the draft pick.

The story is much the same at third base, the other main position of need for El Birdos. Mark DeRosa is a known quantity, but on the other hand, Mark DeRosa is a known quantity. Adrian Beltre has a nice glove, but his bat is questionable and his price tag much the same. Troy Glaus brings power and should come cheap, but with a body composed mostly of old newspapers and sadness it's tough to say how durable he'll be.

So what's a GM, whether hypothetical or real, to do? How does one improve a team when the options seem so very limited? Well, one looks elsewhere, of course. And when one looks elsewhere to improve the 2010 Cardinals over the 2009 version, another area of concern begins to whisper its weakness. I speak, of course, of the bullpen.

Unlike the other areas of need the Cardinals have, there are plenty of options to improve the relief corps. Look at the list of available free agent relievers, and you have to be impressed with the firepower. Guys like Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel and Mike Gonzalez could all potentially make a big impact on a bullpen. So let's take a look at the most attractive options, shall we? I know we all love Ryan Franklin and believe he'll come back in 2010 snorting fire and striking hitters out left and right, but let's just say, for fun, he doesn't. Perhaps a closer might help.

The Type A's

Billy Wagner, LHP - Sure, he's old. And sure, he's had surgery in the recent past. You know what? I don't care. Billy Wagner is still a bad, bad man, even after Tommy John. In limited action following his return from TJ in 2009, Wagner did exactly what he always does: he dominated. He threw 15.2 innings between the Metropolitans and the Red Sox, and posted a 2.33 FIP. He strikeout rate was 14.94 per 9 innings. His control wasn't quite as sharp as usual, but that's certainly to be expected on the comeback trail from elbow surgery. The bottom line is Billy Wagner still kicks ass approaching 40 and with a surgically repaired arm.

The problem with signing relievers, of course, is the wildly inconsistent nature of their performance from year to year. This year's Brad Lidge can quickly become next year's Brad Lidge, and with little or no warning. Not Billy Wagner, though. Wagner has posted an ERA above 3.00 exactly once in his big league career, in 2000. His next highest ERA is 2.85. What I'm trying to say is this: if you're looking for a sure thing to improve your bullpen, Billy Wagner is probably it.

So what's the catch? Well, the catch is Wagner falls into that dastardly trap known as Type A. Yes, that's right. If the Boston Red Sox offer Wagner arbitration (and they would be fools not to), he would cost the Cardinals their first-round pick in 2010. Of course, if the Cards were to pick up some other team's first rounder, say, in return for a certain left fielder who shall remain nameless, it would certainly help take some of the sting out.

Mike Gonzalez, LHP - The upside of Gonzalez is this: he's the second-best left-handed reliever on the market, right behind the aforementioned Billy Wagner. He consistently strikes out better than a batter an inning, and has posted an ERA above 4.00 only twice in his career. The downside? He walks too many batters, though he has improved his control since his early days in Pittsburgh, he blew seven saves in only seventeen opportunities last year, he'll cost you a draft pick, and that Rain Man impression he does on the mound is wicked annoying.

Here's my thought on signing Gonzalez: he's a very good pitcher, capable of shutting the door on an opponent at the end of the game. At the same time, though, he isn't as good as Wagner, would likely demand a longer contract, and will still cost you the same in draft pick compensation. For the money and the lost pick, I would take Wagner in a heartbeat over Gonzalez.

Rafael Soriano, RHP - So you want a guy just like the first two pitchers on this list, but you're afraid of lefties, you say? Well, look no further than Rafael Soriano. He's got the same electric stuff as Mike Gonzalez, but lacking the sinister overtones. Soriano struck out better than 12/9 IP in 2009, while keeping his walk rate down at a very manageable 3.21. He throws hard, has an outstanding breaking ball, and generally does a fine job of keeping the ball in the park. What more could you ask for?

Well, one could ask for a better track record of health, I suppose. Soriano has a history of arm troubles, though they're usually more of the nagging variety than the cutting variety. What is really interesting about Soriano and Gonzalez is that both play for the Braves. Now, while that may not seem all that interesting at first blush, there is the possibility Atlanta may not be willing to offer arbitration to both players. One would have to assume they will offer arb. to one or the other, but if they are at all concerned the market this winter could be as slow as last offseason, they may hesitate to possibly put themselves on the hook for two short relievers due for large pay increases. If Atlanta fails to offer either Soriano or Gonzalez arbitration, that player immediately gets a big, big bump in value. Definitely a situation worth watching.

Octavio Dotel, RHP - After a couple years of wandering in the wilderness, Dotel has resurrected his career the past two seasons with the Chicago White Sox. He's been healthy, throwing 134 total innings, and has shown flashes of the same brilliance he displayed early in his career with the Houston Astros. (And by the way, look at some of the numbers Dotel put up in Houston. It's easy to forget just how good he was for about three years, and just how hard he was ridden.) The old fire may not quite be there, as he no longer gooses his fastball up to 97 or 98, but the slider is still good and the K numbers show it. On the other hand, betting on Dotel at this point is a definite risk, as his injury history is long and detailed. Just looking at the jump his walk rate took from 2008 to 2009 is enough to give me pause.

Jose Valverde, RHP - I'll be honest with you: I can't stand Jose Valverde. I hate his delivery, I hate the little dance he does, I hate his half-assed perm, and I hate, well, pretty much everything else about the dude. He just bugs me, you know? However, personal feelings aside, Valverde is still a pretty fine pitcher. He strikes out better than a batter an inning, his walk rate is just fine, and he's only given up more than a hit per inning once in his career. (He gave up 50 hits in 49.1 innings in 2006.)

On the other hand, Valverde also happens to have name recognition that a couple of the other guys on this list don't have. He's certainly better known than either of the Atlanta pitchers, and is consistently seen on SportsCenter pumping his fist and just being all Proven Closer. Thus, his price tag will likely exceed those of the other guys listed here, I would think.

There are a couple other Type A relievers, but I don't see any of them as real options. Kevin Gregg is a Type A, but I have to think the Cards saw enough of him in a Cubs' uni to stay away. John Grabow is good, but more of a specialist type, and LaTroy Hawkins, well, um, I'm not really sure how to finish that sentence.

The Type B's

Kiko Calero, RHP - Okay, I'm going to level with you: Calero is probably the only Type B I'm really that interested in. Well, maybe not the only one, but he's certainly at the top of the list. Hell, if nothing else, signing Calero would allow us all the look at the Cardinal roster and forget, if only for a second, that the Mark Mulder deal ever happened.

The problem with Calero is that his numbers look, well, they look like a reliever's. Whereas the guys up in the A bracket have established a track record of fairly consistent performance year after year, Calero's numbers look more like a tech stock's six-month record. He was excellent for the Cards in 2003 and '04, then went to Oakland along with Daric Barton and no one else, and had two very nice seasons for them. Then came 2007, and Kiko just self-destructed. His walk rate exploded, his strike outs plummeted, and his home run rate stayed low largely because of Oakland's cavernous home stadium. 2008 brought more frustration, and Kiko landed in Florida for the 2009 season. He proceeded to put up brilliant numbers once again, with an ERA under 2.00. So which Kiko would you be buying for 2010? Therein lies the conundrum of trying to sign relievers to improve your bullpen.

The best thing Kiko Calero has going for him is the fact he won't cost you a draft pick. He won't give you the same kind of performance the guys on the A list probably would, but he also won't screw you in June when you don't have a pick until #97 overall. Calero keeps the ball on the ground and in the park, so he would certainly fit in with the rest of the staff, but his ERA is almost certain to rise in 2010 nonetheless. He stranded better than 82% of baserunners in '09, a number that likely isn't sustainable.

Brandon Lyon, RHP - Okay, take a look at Lyon's numbers. Now, do you see why the Cardinals should stay well clear of this guy? If not, don't feel bad. There's going to be at least one General Manager this winter who doesn't see it either, and he's probably going to hand Brandon Lyon a 2.86 ERA contract.

The problem, of course, is Brandon Lyon isn't a 2.86 ERA pitcher. He did, however, look like one in 2009. Unfortunately, that doesn't cover the fact it was pretty much all smoke, all mirrors, all the time. His K/BB rate was well under two. He stranded over 80% of baserunners. His BABIP was an unsustainably low .229. In short, Brandon Lyon in 2009 is the guy the concept of regression to the mean was invented for.

Now, that's not to say Brandon Lyon is a bad pitcher, per se, but only to show what kind of an investment the Cardinals should probably avoid making. Sure, a guy like Lyon isn't going to cripple you by himself, but as Cardinal fans, we've seen all too well how a bunch of small, sorta bad contracts can turn into a big, really bad contract when you take them all together. No, for what he'll cost, Brandon Lyon is just the sort of pitcher who isn't worth it.

Rich Harden, RHP - And now we come to one of my favourite hypotheticals. There's going to be plenty of discussion this offseason about Rich Harden maybe being the sort of guy you might want to offer an incentive-heavy contract to for one year just to see. Sure, he's never ever ever, ever ever, ever ever been healthy for an extended period of time, but sweet Jesus, look at what he can do when he does get on the field.

You won't find a pitcher more talented, or an arm more intriguing, than Mr. Harden. Unfortunately, we all know the other side of the story: Harden has made 30 starts exactly once in his career, in 2005. When he's healthy, he's a joy to watch. But most of the time, you're just going to be frustrated by the pitcher who isn't there.

Whether or not Harden would be worth offering a one-year deal to as a starter, though, isn't really what I'm concerned with at the moment. What I want to know is if he could possibly be enticed into trying his hand at a relief role. Maybe he just isn't built to handle the rigors of 200 innings a season. Maybe he could come in and air it out for ten or twelve pitches at a time and keep himself on the field.

Something interesting about Harden is this: he's actually been fairly healthy the last two years. In 2008 and '09, he made 25 and 26 starts, respectively. Not quite a full healthy season, but close. What's even move interesting is for the first time in his career, Harden failed to really have much success in 2009. That coincided with his complete abandonment of both his slider and split-finger pitches, both of which had been huge weapons for him in the past. Harden essentially became a strict two-pitch pitcher in 2009, yet was still able to have a reasonable level of success over better than 140 innings.

So what we have here is a pitcher who has been relatively healthy two years running, but still seems unable to stay off the training table for a full season's worth of innings. He now throws basically just two pitches, still has the velocity on his fastball, and can still strike hitters out like nobody's business. The real Achilles' Heel for Harden in '09 was his home run rate, which was close to twice his career mark. Some of that was undoubtedly due to pitching in Wrigley Field for a full season, but I think a lot of it was the fact he simply refused to go to a third pitch to keep hitters off balance.

I have no idea if Harden would be amenable to the idea of pitching in relief or not. But I look at his numbers, and I look at his track record, and it cries out to me there's a dominant reliever just waiting to be born. So what if he can't throw 180 innings? Give me 60 or 70 innings of vintage Rich Harden, and I'll show you a winner.

In the end, I think the Cardinals could probably do pretty well for themselves if they chose to invest a bit of coin in the bullpen this offseason. Ordinarily, I'm not at all of the mind that throwing money at relievers is a good way to improve your team, but this year might just be the exception. I think the Cards will miss out on both of the top left fielders, Holliday due to the enormous salary he'll get and Bay due to timing, and I honestly don't see a third baseman on the market I think would be worth the money for the improvement over David Freese. Maybe Chone Figgins, but I get the feeling the Angels are going to resign him. I could be wrong, of course.

So maybe in order to improve the team, Johnny Mo and Co. improve a semi-sore spot instead of the glaring holes. Maybe they take all that money they were going to hand to Holliday and they go give some of it to Billy Wagner. Maybe then they call up Rich Harden and say, "Hey, Rich. We couldn't help but notice you're awesome and all, but you sure do seem to get hurt a lot. Our manager and pitching coach built a pretty sizable portion of their legacy on turning a starter into a reliever about twenty years ago; how would you like to be the next Eckersley?"

There are, of course, others who might be interesting, guys who don't show up on the arbitration lists, but few of them warrant a whole lot of consideration over what the Cards already have, in my ever so humble opinion. Guillermo Mota is out there, and might be okay, but he's also getting up in years and I don't really like him. Duaner Sanchez might be worth a spring training invite to see if he looks healthy or not. Justin Speier, subject of a fair amount of speculation here back about mid-season, is capable of getting right-handed hitters out quite effectively. Fernando Rodney would certainly be worth kicking the tires on if the Tigers don't bring him back. There will be plenty of non-tenders as well, possibly a record amount, and a large percentage of those players will likely be relievers. Still, lest this become even more unwieldy than it already is, I'm not going to speculate further on who might be cut loose. For now, these are the guys I think bear watching.

Now, what would you do with guys like Kyle McClellan, you ask? Well, to be honest, I don't really have an answer, because I don't care. I want a bullpen that can overwhelm the other team, and K-Mac, despite his awesome nickname, just isn't terrifying anyone with his 1.50 K/BB ratio in 2009. Give me Motte and give me Boggs, maybe make a spot for Eddie Sanchez midseason. But don't give me Brad Thompson and McClellan and the like.

Of course, the question must be asked: is someone like Billy Wagner and what he would bring to the team worth giving up a first-round draft pick for? And the answer is an unequivocal maybe. See, ordinarily, I'm of the mind you don't give up those draft picks for pretty much anything. Period. But the fact is, I think the Cardinals are going to have a pretty fair haul of extra picks early in the draft this year, and that changes the equation a bit. If Holliday and DeRosa both leave, the Cards have two extra supplemental picks and a possible first-rounder coming. (It could also be a second rounder, which is just fucking idiotic. The draft compensation rules have got to be fixed in the next CBA. It's just ridiculous the way this whole thing works.) Jo-El is on his way out as well, I'm sure, so that's a third supplemental pick. I sort of doubt the Cards offer Troy Glaus arbitration, but if they do and he leaves, that's four. Most likely, the Cardinals will have three supplemental picks, all in the 30-50 range, and an extra second-round pick. (I think Holliday ends up with the Mets. It would be nice if the Giants or Angels signed him, though.)

With so many extra picks in the first two rounds, I honestly would be okay with the Cards forfeiting their first-round choice to sign a Billy Wagner. I can't imagine he would want more than about a one- or two-year deal at his age, so you aren't locking yourself into anything that could cripple you long-term. You give up your first rounder, yes, but you still have something like five picks in the first 80 or so. I can live with that.

So what do you guys think? I say when (okay, if), Holliday walks, and Bay has already re-upped with Boston, and Cameron signs with Kansas City because they'll let him be the center fielder, we focus on the 'pen. Give me Wagner to destroy all in his path, Harden as a grand experiment, and keep the rest of the powder dry.

Maybe we lose 90 games 2-1. Or maybe not. Hey, it's November. What else have we got to talk about?

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of November, 2009

"Oviedo" - Blind Pilot

"Gotta Get Up" - Harry Nilsson

"The Old Revolution" - Leonard Cohen

"The Handshake" - MGMT

"Let's Build a Fire" - +/-

My Maudlin' Career

the red baron — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:01:02 -0000

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I didn't really realise it last week, but just the other day it sort of hit me when I looked at the date: I just celebrated two years of writing for this wonderful site. My very first front page post was on Halloween of 2007, and seeing as how we are now in the glorious month of November in Year of Our Lord 2009, that's two damned years I've been cluttering up the interwebs with my peculiar ramblings. And so, seeing as how I am the sort of person who simply cannot resist nostalgia or making lists of things, I thought I would go back through all the things I've written here at VEB and pick out my favourites. It also doesn't hurt, of course, that very little is actually going on in Cardinal land at this particular moment.

So I started rolling back through all my past posts, and something began to become apparent as I did: I'm sort of a depressing dude. Most of my stuff I think is really pretty good tends to be of the wistful, sad, and slightly bitter emotive variety. Don't get me wrong; the idea I am a bit of a bummer is not exactly news to me, as people have been telling me that my whole life. However, it was a bit surprising to see the proof staring me so clearly in the face.

Regardless, I am proud to bring you my personal Best Of collection out of sheer arrogance and hubris. (And also maybe a little because I was interested to see if I've gotten any better at this, but mostly the gigantic ego thing.) In reverse chronological order (I think):

Reflection -- recent post about the end of our season
Talk Talk Talk-- the very first chat I tried
Drafting a Masterpiece-- reviewing the first day of the 2009 draft
Swingin', and Not Just Dick-- there is, in fact, a toaster involved in this post
Life Lenses-- in which I discuss the departure of Adam Kennedy
God Bless Us, Every One -- Christmas 2008
The Team Stripped Bare By Its Suitors, Even-- an interesting hypothetical, and my favourite title
Good Bye, Halcyon Days -- mourning for last summer, and my second favourite title
Not With a Bang, but a Whimper-- Jason Isringhausen
Saturday Morning Coming Down-- a discussion of Mark McGwire and me forgetting how to spell the word rhythm

And, just for funsies, my first main page story, and the very first diary I ever put up here.

Hopefully you don't find this too very self-indulgent, though I'm certain it probably is.

As for the current news of the day:

I am of the belief the Yankees' strategy of using only three pitchers and throwing them on short rest is going to backfire on them. We already saw A.J. Burnett get crushed pitching on three days' rest, and I'm honestly expecting something similar from Pettitte tonight. I still expect the Yankees to win in seven, because I do believe CC Sabathia will roll pretty much no matter what and Cole Hamels seems a bit lost in the wilderness to me, but I also think New York has made the series much tougher than it needed to be. Historically we can see pitchers tend to struggle on short rest, regardless of the era in question (relatively speaking, of course; if a pitcher is usually going on three days' rest, then two days' rest hurts hime), and I think Girardi has weakened his team's position unnecessarily. What do all of you think? I know this concept of only needing three starters in the playoffs has been Fritz' pet peeve for a while now; we now get to see just how viable such a strategy really is.

I don't much care for the Iwamura deal from the Pirates' side of things; it just seems like they're still treading water. Dave Cameron disagrees with me, for whatever it's worth.(I also forgot Jack Wilson got traded to the Mariners; the perils of writing in a hurry, you know.) I do wish like hell whoever it was who started stumping for Ben Zobrist a couple years ago had more pull with the front office; the guy could have been had for a song as recently as last season, now he has to be considered untouchable. Interestingly enough, VEB has been right in wanting to acquire both Jayson Werth and Zobrist at various points in time before they broke out. I know there were some here last year (myself included), who would have liked to see Johnny Mo try to pick up Huston Street on the cheap while he was struggling. I remember the advocacy of several posters (again, myself included), for a deal that would have brought Cliff Lee to the Cards after his disastrous 2007 campaign. (In fact, Lee was one of my personal crusades that offseason.) I believe the idea was to move Scott Rolen for Lee and possibly try to get Jhonny Peralta involved somehow with other inducements going from St. Louis to Cleveland. I was a big fan of Carlos Quentin, and I know jillsinmo (who seems to have largely disappeared, sadly), stumped for him for awhile as well. My point? If you happen to work in the Cardinals' front office and are reading this (and I know you guys are), you may want to take a good hard look at any buy-low guys we come up with this offseason. Our track record is remarkably good.

Of course, if you had listened to us last year, we might very well have signed Ben Sheets for a lost season, so at least make sure you look at the X-rays first.

My predicition, guaranteed to be right, for Game 6 tonight: Phillies 7, Yankees 3. Pedro goes 5 inning, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk. JA Happ relieves him and holds the Yankees down. Pettitte gets knocked around, failing to get out of the third inning and giving up 5 runs.

Have a lovely day, everyone.

The Baron's Playlist for the 4th of November, 2009

"Lovelier Girl" -- Beach House

"Jesus Walking on the Water" -- Violent Femmes

"Mr. Tough" -- Yo La Tengo

"Pale Blue Eyes" -- The Velvet Underground

"These Days" -- Nico