Looking at the bells n whistles and crawling through the fine print of the new CBA that was the lovechild conceived by the league, owners, union, and agents last holiday season (the gift that keeps on giving..), best case scenario is NY still hits the dreaded tax apron. What this means for this offseason is no full MLE, no BAEand only 125% trade matching.

Best case scenario for NY is; JR opts in, and NY gets its baby bird rights for Lin & Novak.

The fine print on MLE & BAE is if either is used and you hit the et. $74m apron, it then becomes a hard cap for the year. Avoid those 2 exceptions and you can exceed the apron.

For tangible help NY may need to load up on vet FA with 2yr-team option deals and try to roll those into tradeable pieces for teams looking to cut costs after Dec. 15.

2012 Best Case (give or take a $)

#1. Amare - $19.95m

#2. Melo - $19.50m

#3. Tyson - $13.61m

#4. JR - $2.5m

#5. Toney - 2.068

#6. Shump - $1.68m

#7. Jordan - $0.76m

#8. Harrellson - $0.76m

N/A Balkman - $1.675m

#9. Fields - $5m (or less)

10. Lin - $5m (or less)

#11. Novak - $3m (or less)

#12. Tax Mini-Mid - $3m

#13. 2nd Rd Pick - $0.475

#14. Vet FA #1 - $1.4m (or less)

#15. Vet FA #2 - $1.4m (or less)

Total Cap Cost - If most or all stars aligned themselves in NY's favor - $83.18m

Not a lot of actual value improvement; but at least gives disposable assets and some trade flexibility come Dec 15 - Trade Deadline.

The current NY cap committment is $62m for 8 players, $61m and change if they don't opt Jordan.

If the union loses its Bird ruling then NY would have a total of $11.49m available re-signing Lin, Fields, Novak, its 2nd rd pick and at a minimum of 1 free agent. And if NY has to use the full $5m MLE to re-sign Lin then they cannot exceed the $11.49m for the entire year, including all mid season trades and signings.

Here is how it will work, lets gather 2012 offseaon trade proposals, take the best ten or so and then post for voting.

Put together together your proposal, please try to keep it reasonable, concise, fairly realistic and free of hate.

Also provide, in 1 sentence, the value or reason for the trade. If you cannot explain it in 1 sentence then it likely is not a good proposal. Remeber, the other team would have to have a legitimate reason to make the deal.

This isn't a Lin love fest or a bashing, so the Kool-Aid drinkers... please chill or move on. This is simply a forum to take the many suggestions, throw them against the wall and see what sticks.

Myself, I am staying away from proposed deals with bottom barrel teams because there is little to no realistic reason why the Deliberately Bad & Cheap Owners would want any of NY's Big Fish, other than Lin; but Lin would not agree to a Sign & Trade (S&T) with them. The cheapest team in the universe isn't going to magically take Amare's contract. They are the cheapest team in the universe for a reason.

Let me get things started, (all deals below are within the 150% +/- NBA trade match (like the ones below).

#1. Amare-$19.9m to Atlanta for JJ-$19.8m + Marvin-$8.3m
Reason- Win/Win BFD(Big Fish Distribution) for NY, cap relief for Atlanta who may feel it is time to divorce JJ

#2. Amare-$19.9m to Dallas for Marion-$8.7m + Haywood-$8.4m + Odom-$8.2m (with team option buyout $2.4m)
Reason- Possible Plan B if Dallas whiffs but still want another Big Fish alongside Dirk & possibly DWill

#3. Amare-$19.9m + Lin(S&T)-$5m to Houston for Scola-$9.5m + Dalembert-$6.7 + Lowry-$5.8m + 1st rd
Reason- Houston desperately searching for a) a headline big and b) try to keep and regain the popularity from its Yao days

#4. Amare-$19.9m + Lin(S&T)-$5m to LA Clippers for CP3-$17.8m + Foye(S&T)-$4m
Reason- Not a likely scenario; only possible if CP3 says he will not extend with LAC, will only agree to a trade to NY and only if Melo stays a Knick

#5. Amare-$19.9m + Chandler-$13.7m + Lin(S&T)-$5m to Orlando for DHoward-$19.3m + Hedo-$11.4m + Jameer$7.9m
Reason- Not a likely scenario and I do not think a good deal for NY either

#6. Amare-$19.9m + Lin(S&T)-$5m to Boston for Rondo-$11m + KG(S&T) or Allen (S&T) + 1st rd pick
Reason- Ainge doesnt seemed sold long term on Rondo and may take a flyer; to me Rondo is job 1 if NY wants a title in the next 2 years

#7. Lin(S&T)-$5m + TD-$2.07m to Portlandfor Shawne-$3.2m + Batum(S&T)-$5m + two 1st rd picks
Reason- Portland wants Lin, make them pay for him

#8. Amare-$19.9m + Lin(S&T)-$5m to GSW for Curry $4m + Lee-$12.8m + poss 1st rd pick
Reason- Marketing gold for GSW and Lee is a better fit with Melo than Amare

#9. Lin(S&T)-$5m to GSW for Curry-$4m
Reason- Not likely, concerns about Curry's durability; would rather have Lin

#10. Amare-$19.9m + Lin(S&T)-$5m to HHB&F for DWade-$17.01m + Haslem-$4.01m
Reason- More title ready lineup for NY (Tyson/Haslem/Melo/DWade). Better BFD for HHB&F

#11. Melo-$19.5m to HHB&F for DWade-$17.01m
Reason- Another strong BFD helping both teams that Melo would agree to

#12. Move nobody and let the guys on the team have a full season together with a training camp and one coach (a tip of the cap to Moose for suggesting).

 

If or when the season actually starts.

 

I suspect the CBA will get worked out soon and a shortened season happens. Actually a shortened season is perfect for the Knicks to make a move for the title. Players are rested and players like Billups, who traditionally run out of gas, can take advantage of a shorter season.

 

The general consensus is for the Knicks success this year and the future they need Size, Depth, Talent, Depth, Depth and Depth.

 

Things need to fall into place, which of course they won’t; but here’s a reasonable and near-realistic scenario which would put the Knicks in position to win the title this year.

 

Step 1

The assumption is Mike D’Antoni keeps his job this year as head coach

 

Step 2

Robert Sarver’s heart grows three sizes and agrees to take care of Phoenix’s adopted favorite son and amnesty’s Steve Nash.

Nash pockets his $11.6million and agrees to re-join his old coach in NY by signing a one year minimum contract.

 

Step 3

Boris Diaw announces that he thinks Space Jam is a simplistic, stupid film that insults his intellect. Team owner Michael Jordan decides to amnesty Diaw and his $9million expiring contract.

Diaw agrees to re-join his old coach and former running mates in NY by signing a one year minimum contract.

Hate him or love him, Boris Diaw excelled in D’Antoni’s system. As a SF/PF pass-first Forward tweener, he would be the ideal 3rd forward compliment to Melo and Amare.

 

Step 4

The luxury tax rules in place as part of the signed CBA prevents Mark Cuban from realistically re-signing Tyson Chandler and keep Brendan Haywood. So Cuban decides to re-sign Chandler and amnesty Haywood.

Though enticing deals are coming from Chicago, Miami and NJ, Haywood decides to sign a one year minimum deal with NY and see where things go from there.

 

The roster:

Guards – Nash, Billups, Fields, Iman, Douglass

Forwards – Melo, Amare, Diaw, and whoever else

Center – Haywood, Turiaf, and whoever else

 

In a short season, the Knicks could win the title with this group. They'd have skill, depth, experience and size; though another big would help.

 

And, next year Nash, Billups, Diaw, Haywood, Turiaf and others fall off the books allowing the Knicks to still pursue their 3rd big 3 (Howard, Williams, Paul, etc.).

 

Billups and Turiaf could still be available to re-sign. And depending on the fine print, maybe the amnestied players too.

 

Sadly, Sarver won’t be so nice, Jordan will be petty but will still likely amnesty Diop and Cuban is Cuban so he will figure out a way to keep both… if he wants.

 

But ya can dream can’t ya?

“We've got a blind date with destiny... and it looks like she's ordered the lobster”

 

For the full write up of the Big Ugly, here is the link

 

http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2011/10/13/2488153/breaking-down-the-big-ugly

 

 

Summary of Recent Developments

Posturing, spitting contests, and mandatory drug test-inducing CBA proposals seem to be driving the 2011-12 NBA season, crashing right towards the Great Big Acme Anvil.

 

Militant owners pressuring for offering even less, the union discussing de-certification; this could turn ugly very quickly.

In Short

As the wise Reverend Johnson once said… “O Lord, do we have the strength to carry off this mighty task in one night? Or are we just jerking off? “
Amen.

 

Proposed Goals for Agreement / Current Status

 

Contract Length – Agree to 4yr/3yr
Status – Still in work

 

Bird Rights and the Melo Rule – Agree to no change
Status – Still in work

 

MLE – Agree to $4m/2yr annual MLE with player Bird rights after the 2years
Status – Battleground. League offers for $5m/3yr or 4yr (non tax teams, alternating years) and $2.5/2yr (tax teams, alternating years). The two sides seem to be going in the opposite direction and making little sense while heading there. A “mini” MLE is now in play for luxury tax teams $2.5mm for two years; every other year. The non-tax MLE is still $5mm available each year; but now the owners are proposing alternating durations; 4year MLE contract length one year, 3year the next, then 4 then 3 and so on.

 

Really, alternating years? Was yesterday “Bring Your Grandchild to Work and Let Them Takeover Negotiations” Day and I missed it? Or is the reason Michael Jordan did not speak yesterday was because he brought along the supporting cast from Space Jam to do his talking for him?

 

The “every other year” element is pure goofiness… “Hey Bobby you get a 4year MLE contract because you are a free agent this year. Sorry Timmy, you are a free agent next year so you get hosed”.

 

The union needs to protect the players and remove the every other year garbage; even if the union gives up a little something in the end

 

 

Amnesty – Agree to 1x amnesty contingent on amnestied money does not count against the cap or tax
Status – Tentative agreement for a one time Amnesty – 75% of the amnestied money would fall of the cap & luxury tax (players still get paid in full).

 

Cap Reform – Agree to positive reforms in areas such as Injury Exception, Contract Buyout and such

Status – Tentative agreement for a "Stretch" Exception allowing team to waive players, stretch out the remaining payoff over several years and reduce the salary cap hit by the team.

I hope the Stretch Exception doesn’t get lost in all of the yelling and spit wad shooting going on.

 

Luxury Tax – Agree to current luxury tax in place today
Status – Battleground. Taxes on top of taxes, taxes for teams 3 out of 5; confusing, confounding and directly aimed by envious small market owners towards the big boys; the league now offers $1 additional tax instead of $1.50 and the union wants $0.50 tax on the first $10mm then $1 after that.

 

The Luxury Tax Cliff, compliments of Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. Teams who may creep over the tax line are at risk of losing their slice of the tax pie refund. The small market owners… errr, I mean the league offers those teams get a half share.
 

Free Agency – Agree to current free agency framework

Status – Still in work. There was discussion published about the 125% trade match is being negotiated for a higher ratio; players proposed 225%, the league offered 140-150%.

I hope this doesn't get lost.

 

Sign and Trade

Status - Battleground. The league wants no S&T by tax teams, the union says “bite me”.

 

Contract Opt Outs – Agree to player and franchise opt-outs every two years

Status – Still in work, though I’ve read recently that the league wants to limit or remove Opt Outs.

 

Salary Cap – Agree to plan similar to what is in place today
Status – Still in work, but in recent articles, a $60mm (est) cap for Year 1 is being shopped around by Knicks owner James Dolan.

 

BRI – 52/48, 51/49, possibly even 50/50 dependent on successful agreement on the other goals
Status – Battle of the Bulge. Frankly the smartest option was the 50-49-1 floated by the union (50%-union, 49%-league, 1%-Retired Player Pension Fund).

The owners’ floating 49-51% offer doesn’t pass the smell test. Golden Rule- if you can’t explain it in 1 sentence, you’re selling a pile of carp.

 

Contract Roll Backs - No

Status – Still in work, wind seems to be blowing towards no roll backs

 

Franchise Tag – No

Status – Still in work

 

Union Decertification - No

Status – In Discussion and appears to be seriously considered by the union; in short, the nuclear option.

 

NLRB Ruling – Not covered in initial write up

Status – Awaiting Ruling; potential blockbuster either way the ruling goes

 

“We've got a blind date with destiny... and it looks like she's ordered the lobster”

 

For the full write up of the Big Ugly, here is the link

 

http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2011/10/13/2488153/breaking-down-the-big-ugly

 

 

Summary of Recent Developments

Posturing, spitting contests, and mandatory drug test-inducing CBA proposals seem to be driving the 2011-12 NBA season, crashing right towards the Great Big Acme Anvil.

 

Militant owners pressuring for offering even less, the union discussing de-certification; this could turn ugly very quickly.

In Short

As the wise Reverend Johnson once said… “O Lord, do we have the strength to carry off this mighty task in one night? Or are we just jerking off? “
Amen.

 

Proposed Goals for Agreement / Current Status

 

Contract Length – Agree to 4yr/3yr
Status – Still in work

 

Bird Rights and the Melo Rule – Agree to no change
Status – Still in work

 

MLE – Agree to $4m/2yr annual MLE with player Bird rights after the 2years
Status – Battleground. League offers for $5m/3yr or 4yr (non tax teams, alternating years) and $2.5/2yr (tax teams, alternating years). The two sides seem to be going in the opposite direction and making little sense while heading there. A “mini” MLE is now in play for luxury tax teams $2.5mm for two years; every other year. The non-tax MLE is still $5mm available each year; but now the owners are proposing alternating durations; 4year MLE contract length one year, 3year the next, then 4 then 3 and so on.

 

Really, alternating years? Was yesterday “Bring Your Grandchild to Work and Let Them Takeover Negotiations” Day and I missed it? Or is the reason Michael Jordan did not speak yesterday was because he brought along the supporting cast from Space Jam to do his talking for him?

 

The “every other year” element is pure goofiness… “Hey Bobby you get a 4year MLE contract because you are a free agent this year. Sorry Timmy, you are a free agent next year so you get hosed”.

 

The union needs to protect the players and remove the every other year garbage; even if the union gives up a little something in the end

 

 

Amnesty – Agree to 1x amnesty contingent on amnestied money does not count against the cap or tax
Status – Tentative agreement for a one time Amnesty – 75% of the amnestied money would fall of the cap & luxury tax (players still get paid in full).

 

Cap Reform – Agree to positive reforms in areas such as Injury Exception, Contract Buyout and such

Status – Tentative agreement for a "Stretch" Exception allowing team to waive players, stretch out the remaining payoff over several years and reduce the salary cap hit by the team.

I hope the Stretch Exception doesn’t get lost in all of the yelling and spit wad shooting going on.

 

Luxury Tax – Agree to current luxury tax in place today
Status – Battleground. Taxes on top of taxes, taxes for teams 3 out of 5; confusing, confounding and directly aimed by envious small market owners towards the big boys; the league now offers $1 additional tax instead of $1.50 and the union wants $0.50 tax on the first $10mm then $1 after that.

 

The Luxury Tax Cliff, compliments of Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. Teams who may creep over the tax line are at risk of losing their slice of the tax pie refund. The small market owners… errr, I mean the league offers those teams get a half share.
 

Free Agency – Agree to current free agency framework

Status – Still in work. There was discussion published about the 125% trade match is being negotiated for a higher ratio; players proposed 225%, the league offered 140-150%.

I hope this doesn't get lost.

 

Sign and Trade

Status - Battleground. The league wants no S&T by tax teams, the union says “bite me”.

 

Contract Opt Outs – Agree to player and franchise opt-outs every two years

Status – Still in work, though I’ve read recently that the league wants to limit or remove Opt Outs.

 

Salary Cap – Agree to plan similar to what is in place today
Status – Still in work, but in recent articles, a $60mm (est) cap for Year 1 is being shopped around by Knicks owner James Dolan.

 

BRI – 52/48, 51/49, possibly even 50/50 dependent on successful agreement on the other goals
Status – Battle of the Bulge. Frankly the smartest option was the 50-49-1 floated by the union (50%-union, 49%-league, 1%-Retired Player Pension Fund).

The owners’ floating 49-51% offer doesn’t pass the smell test. Golden Rule- if you can’t explain it in 1 sentence, you’re selling a pile of carp.

 

Contract Roll Backs - No

Status – Still in work, wind seems to be blowing towards no roll backs

 

Franchise Tag – No

Status – Still in work

 

Union Decertification - No

Status – In Discussion and appears to be seriously considered by the union; in short, the nuclear option.

 

NLRB Ruling – Not covered in initial write up

Status – Awaiting Ruling; potential blockbuster either way the ruling goes

 

For the full write up of the Big Ugly, here is the link

 

http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2011/10/13/2488153/breaking-down-the-big-ugly

 

Summary

Before players and owners took their balls and went home, some mediator-led progress was made towards a new CBA. The Luxury Tax and BRI still look to be the main argument points.

I believe the BRI will end up 50/50. I believe the union believes it and the owners believe it. The battle is how much the owners have to give up getting the union to agree to 50/50.

I wonder if the Luxury Tax gets resolved in synch with the owners getting consensus on Shared Revenue.

 

Proposed Goals for Agreement / Current Status

 

Contract Length – Agree to 4yr/3yr
Status – Still in work

 

Bird Rights and the Melo Rule – Agree to no change
Status – Still in work

 

MLE – Agree to $4m/2yr annual MLE with player Bird rights after the 2years
Status – Tentative agreement in place for $5m and 3years.

The owners want a flat $5m/yr for 3yrs; players may want 7-8% annual increase. I'm actually on the owners' side here if the players' get Bird Rights after the MLE contract expires.

 

Amnesty – Agree to 1x amnesty contingent on amnestied money does not count against the cap or tax
Status – Tentative agreement for a one time Amnesty – 75% of the amnestied money would fall of the cap & luxury tax (players still get paid in full).

 

Cap Reform – Agree to positive reforms in areas such as Injury Exception, Contract Buyout and such

Status – Tentative agreement for a "Stretch" Exception allowing team to waive players and reduce the salary cap hit by

An area of great interest and hope on my part that some semblance of reform is enacted. The good news is there appears to have been discussion. Compliments of a New York Times article (link below)

"There will be a "stretch" exception, available every year, allowing teams to waive players and stretch out their remaining salary over a number of seasons, thus reducing the annual salary-cap hit."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/sports/basketball/with-nba-talks-halted-sides-predict-a-meeting-next-week.html?_r=2&ref=sports

 

Luxury Tax – Agree to current luxury tax in place today
Status – Still in work, appears to be a major negotiation battlefield.

 

Free Agency – Agree to current free agency framework

Status – Still in work

An interesting development published in sheridanhoops.com is related to Trade Rules. The 125% trade match is being negotiated for a higher ratio.

“The players want the percentage to rise to 225 percent (whereby, for instance, a player making $1 million could be traded for a player making $2.25 million), while the owners have indicated a willingness to allow the percentage to rise to 140 or 150 percent”

I like this development. This does not mean you can trade Luke Walton for Dwight Howard; but what this may mean is teams can now focus more on trading talent for talent than matching contracts. 

http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/10/23/nba-lockout-remaining-issues/

 

Contract Opt Outs – Agree to player and franchise opt-outs every two years

Status – Still in work

 

Salary Cap – Agree to plan similar to what is in place today
Status – Still in work

 

BRI – 52/48, 51/49, possibly even 50/50 dependent on successful agreement on the other goals
Status – Still in work

 

Contract Roll Backs - No

Status – Still in work, wind seems to be blowing towards no roll backs

 

Franchise Tag – No

Status – Still in work

 

Union Decertification - No

Status – No Change

 

NLRB Ruling – Not covered in initial write up

Status – Awaiting Ruling; potential blockbuster either way the ruling goes

 

For the full write up of the Big Ugly, here is the link

 

http://www.denverstiffs.com/2011/10/13/2488796/dread-the-word-breaking-down-the-big-ugly?login=1319387109

 

Summary

Before players and owners took their balls and went home, some mediator-led progress was made towards a new CBA. The Luxury Tax and BRI still look to be the main argument points.

I believe the BRI will end up 50/50. I believe the union believes it and the owners believe it. The battle is how much the owners have to give up getting the union to agree to 50/50.

I wonder if the Luxury Tax gets resolved in synch with the owners getting consensus on Shared Revenue.

 

Proposed Goals for Agreement / Current Status

 

Contract Length – Agree to 4yr/3yr
Status – Still in work

 

Bird Rights and the Melo Rule – Agree to no change
Status – Still in work

 

MLE – Agree to $4m/2yr annual MLE with player Bird rights after the 2years
Status – Tentative agreement in place for $5m and 3years

The owners want a flat $5m/yr for 3yrs; players may want 7-8% annual increase. I'm actually on the owners' side here if the players' get Bird Rights after the MLE contract expires.

 

Amnesty – Agree to 1x amnesty contingent on amnestied money does not count against the cap or tax
Status – Tentative agreement for a one time Amnesty – 75% of the amnestied money would fall of the cap & luxury tax (players still get paid in full).

 

Cap Reform – Agree to positive reforms in areas such as Injury Exception, Contract Buyout and such

Status – Tentative agreement for a “Stretch” Exception allowing team to waive players and reduce the salary cap hit by

An area of great interest and hope on my part that some semblance of reform is enacted. The good news is there appears to have been discussion. Compliments of a New York Times article (link below)

“There will be a “stretch” exception, available every year, allowing teams to waive players and stretch out their remaining salary over a number of seasons, thus reducing the annual salary-cap hit.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/22/sports/basketball/with-nba-talks-halted-sides-predict-a-meeting-next-week.html?_r=2&ref=sports

 

Luxury Tax – Agree to current luxury tax in place today
Status – Still in work, appears to be a major negotiation battlefield.

 

Free Agency – Agree to current free agency framework

Status – Still in work

An interesting development published in sheridanhoops.com is related to Trade Rules. The 125% trade match is being negotiated for a higher ratio.

“The players want the percentage to rise to 225 percent (whereby, for instance, a player making $1 million could be traded for a player making $2.25 million), while the owners have indicated a willingness to allow the percentage to rise to 140 or 150 percent”

I like this development. This does not mean you can trade Luke Walton for Dwight Howard; but what this may mean is teams can now focus more on trading talent for talent than matching contracts. 

http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/10/23/nba-lockout-remaining-issues/

  

Contract Opt Outs – Agree to player and franchise opt-outs every two years

Status – Still in work

 

Salary Cap – Agree to plan similar to what is in place today
Status – Still in work

 

BRI – 52/48, 51/49, possibly even 50/50 dependent on successful agreement on the other goals
Status – Still in work

 

Contract Roll Backs - No

Status – Still in work, wind seems to be blowing towards no roll backs

 

Franchise Tag – No

Status – Still in work

 

Union Decertification - No

Status – No Change

 

NLRB Ruling – Not covered in initial write up

Status – Awaiting Ruling; potential blockbuster either way the ruling goes

 

 

 

In the current CBA the players’ union has been on the defensive; defensive with negotiations, defensive in the media front. In neither setting has the union held a position of strength.

The CBA Battle

Who blinks first; who can stand more loss. The owners are older and supposedly more mature. The owners should have been able to prepare themselves for real lost revenue (games lost) and projected lost revenue (short and long term loss of money from post lockout lower attendance). But what is their pain tolerance point?

There’s a potential splintering of owners; owners that want to get a deal done and other owners willing to let the NBA go nuclear, destroy the union the league and to control power within the owners too.

The players’ union claims they have prepared themselves for the last year; if so, the rank and file should be prepared for an extended lockout. Some players may not have heeded the advice to save for a very cold winter or simply did not earn enough long enough to offset the loss. Except for the Andy Warhol-ish 15minutes of fame JaVale McGee’s of the league, the union may be as prepared for a long fight; if they can keep the rank and file together.

There is not much the union can turn to their related to the CBA; they need to fight the good fight and hope to ride out the storm still upright and intact.

The PR campaign

It may not have been planned, but Bryant Gumbel may have done a huge favor for the union with his tantrum. Gumbel’s words painted Czar Stern, fair or not, in a light uglier than any the players could have tried to say. The commissioner’s offense has to tread lightly in how they treat this and not make it worse.

Players take the offensive

Keep going down the right path, keep positive, and keep negotiating; and take the battle (or game) to the owners, literally. One thing the players can do that the owners cannot is to bring the game to the public. Formalize and commit effort towards charity games; build out the barnstorming tour and take the tour to the NBA cities. Pursue a short term TV contract to televise the barnstorming. ESPN and Fox won’t bite; but someone who will never have a chance for a NBA contract may be willing. Commit and succeed in this battle and it hurts the owners.

Follow Danny Granger’s example and payback time and money to the employees of the arenas that are suffering. Granger invited  employees of Conseco Fieldhouse  out to dinner.

The Players’ Nuclear Approach (Kids, don't try this at home).

NBA is the only sport where the players truly do have the power to press the big red button and blow everything up.  It is short-sighted, could end very badly and is not recommended; however, the framework is there.

1.       De-certify the union. The owners could argue in court that all contracts signed while the union was active become null and void. But if the union is taking the offensive the would want all contracts voided by the court.

2.       Gamble on owners go rogue. Hard line owners are fighting with major market owners. At what point do major market owners truly tire of the game and the revenue extortion. There are contracts and rules and agreements the owners sign up for when buying a team; but at what point do select owners decide to split off. I could see Mark Cuban take this fight to court.

3.       Go Old School. Build a new player league, maybe 8 teams all in major markets with the star players and the rebel owners. Without the owners, the player league would not last long term. Without the star players, the NBA, at least initially, would have no star power and a minor league talent pool closer of players. With legit owners a foundation is in place to battle the NBA for development of the future new players.

4.       Sign a TV Deal. Years ago and mostly forgotten was the tale of the NFL and AFL. The two leagues merged, driven quite a bit by the AFL successfully pursuing the NFL quarterbacks (Roman Gabriel, John Brodie). The league talent and owners were comparable in strength and skill. But hidden key to success was that both leagues had major television contracts (Super Bowl I was actually televised live by two networks). Without a major TV contract in place, the whole deal falls apart. If you can steal away legit owners, TV will follow.  The ABA did not succeed because it did not have a network TV deal.

 Lastly

A ruling from the NLRB may be coming very soon. This could change things  a lot.

 

In the current CBA the players’ union has been on the defensive; defensive with negotiations, defensive in the media front. In neither setting has the union held a position of strength.

The CBA Battle

Who blinks first; who can stand more loss. The owners are older and supposedly more mature. The owners should have been able to prepare themselves for real lost revenue (games lost) and projected lost revenue (short and long term loss of money from post lockout lower attendance). But what is their pain tolerance point?

There’s a potential splintering of owners; owners that want to get a deal done and other owners willing to let the NBA go nuclear, destroy the union the league and to control power within the owners too.

The players’ union claims they have prepared themselves for the last year; if so, the rank and file should be prepared for an extended lockout. Some players may not have heeded the advice to save for a very cold winter or simply did not earn enough long enough to offset the loss. Except for the Andy Warhol-ish 15minutes of fame JaVale McGee’s of the league, the union may be as prepared for a long fight; if they can keep the rank and file together.

There is not much the union can turn to their related to the CBA; they need to fight the good fight and hope to ride out the storm still upright and intact.

The PR campaign

It may not have been planned, but Bryant Gumbel may have done a huge favor for the union with his tantrum. Gumbel’s words painted Czar Stern, fair or not, in a light uglier than any the players could have tried to say. The commissioner’s offense has to tread lightly in how they treat this and not make it worse.

Players take the offensive

Keep going down the right path, keep positive, and keep negotiating; and take the battle (or game) to the owners, literally. One thing the players can do that the owners cannot is to bring the game to the public. Formalize and commit effort towards charity games; build out the barnstorming tour and take the tour to the NBA cities. Pursue a short term TV contract to televise the barnstorming. ESPN and Fox won’t bite; but someone who will never have a chance for a NBA contract may be willing. Commit and succeed in this battle and it hurts the owners.

Follow Danny Granger’s example and payback time and money to the employees of the arenas that are suffering. Granger invited  employees of Conseco Fieldhouse  out to dinner.

The Players’ Nuclear Approach (Kids, don't try this at home).

NBA is the only sport where the players truly do have the power to press the big red button and blow everything up.  It is short-sighted, could end very badly and is not recommended; however, the framework is there.

1.       De-certify the union. The owners could argue in court that all contracts signed while the union was active become null and void. But if the union is taking the offensive the would want all contracts voided by the court.

2.       Gamble on owners go rogue. Hard line owners are fighting with major market owners. At what point do major market owners truly tire of the game and the revenue extortion. There are contracts and rules and agreements the owners sign up for when buying a team; but at what point do select owners decide to split off. I could see Mark Cuban take this fight to court.

3.       Go Old School. Build a new player league, maybe 8 teams all in major markets with the star players and the rebel owners. Without the owners, the player league would not last long term. Without the star players, the NBA, at least initially, would have no star power and a minor league talent pool closer of players. With legit owners a foundation is in place to battle the NBA for development of the future new players.

4.       Sign a TV Deal. Years ago and mostly forgotten was the tale of the NFL and AFL. The two leagues merged, driven quite a bit by the AFL successfully pursuing the NFL quarterbacks (Roman Gabriel, John Brodie). The league talent and owners were comparable in strength and skill. But hidden key to success was that both leagues had major television contracts (Super Bowl I was actually televised live by two networks). Without a major TV contract in place, the whole deal falls apart. If you can steal away legit owners, TV will follow.  The ABA did not succeed because it did not have a network TV deal.

 Lastly

A ruling from the NLRB may be coming very soon. This could change things  a lot.

Nate, I know you enjoy a good intelligent debate; so this posting is for you!!!

Apples-to-Oranges
Comparison has been made between the recent NFL and NBA lockouts. I was more pro-owners on the NFL lockout; but I am more pro-union with the NBA. Reading my recommended goals at the bottom, I’d say I actually came in somewhat in the middle (give here, give there).

Continue reading this post »

Just like the old saying "opinions are like ****, everyone has one”; here is mine. Sorry for the size of the posting; but this is just a small set of a lot of working parts in the CBA.
Disclaimer - These are just my observations based on events reported, logical deduction and reasonable judgment. No animals were harmed in the making of this posting.

Apples-to-Oranges
Comparison has been made between the recent NFL and NBA lockouts. I was more pro-owners on the NFL lockout; but am more pro-union with the NBA. Reading my recommended goals at the bottom, I’d say I actually came in somewhat in the middle (give here, give there).

I believe franchises are losing money and system reform is necessary. Where I differ, is my belief that much of the lost money is a result of bad management rather than out of control player salaries and the economy; though these also play factors. Small market status didn’t get in the way of Sacramento being a contender a few years ago.

The Union
I wonder if the players union erred in taking a status quo position. This has put them on defensive on almost all fronts. Since negotiations are give & take by nature, they don't really have a platform to negotiate from; other than trying to not lose too much.

The Owners
Rather than "Hawk & Dove" or “Clueless and Have a Clue” in this posting I will group the owners by the following; Deliberately Cheap & Neglectful Owners (DCNO) and, Actually Gives A Rat's Azz (AGARA), and, the others.
AGARA owners I regard as those who are dedicated to trying to win. During the CBA negotiations I enjoyed Mark Cuban's refreshingly honest approach where he said he would prefer the cap to be lower because that means he would spend less money. But if the cap is higher he said he's ok too; regardless of the cap he would squeeze every last nickel's worth of spending to deliver a title contender.
DCNO owners are those who are ugly deliberately cheap owners, those who truly do not care about team success and those wouldn't mind the CBA to go nuclear; many of those owners also happen to own NHL franchises and believes the charred cinder that had become the NHL a few years back is the right move to go with the NBA. Poster children for this group include Donald Sterling, Robert Sarver and Enos Kroenke.

And now, The Issues

 

 

Contract Length
Maximum contract length of 4 years for players re-signed by their own teams (currently 6 years) and 3 years for players joining new teams (currently 5 years).
Perspective - I have no problem with this. Part of the mess the league is in is due to really bad and really long contracts to players not worthy (Eddy Curry, KMart) plus even big dollar contracts to star players whose skills deteriorate much earlier than their contracts (TMac).
If I Was the Union - I'd accept this; if I got what I wanted in other areas to make up for it.

Limiting Bird Rights (and the Melo Rule)
The owners are trying to introduce changes to the Bird Rights to further limit player movement.
Perspective - A tool for owners to suppress movement of players have earned by time served. The owners want to label this the Melo Rule. Manipulation and intimidation by the franchises was what turned the trade into such a drama; not the player’s desires. Adding the Melo Rule, all that does is turn players into Deron Williams; force a team to trade you a year earlier. Trying to remove the Sign and Trade is only another method to try to restrict player movement which I would not be in favor of.
If I Was the Union - Tough Call; but I would hold for status quo and believe the issue falls by the wayside as progress is made on other issue.

MLE
$5.8 million to $3 million with a maximum contract length of two years
Perspective – I agree with the contract length; but not the amount. For the non-stars, the MLE really is the bread & butter of free agent movement and probably should be going forward.
If I Was the Union - Agree to 2 years; but set the maximum contract amount to $4 million. Players who finish their 2 year MLE should then qualify for Bird Rights.

Amnesty
On the last amnesty, the amnestied money did not count on the tax but still was part of the cap.
Perspective - In support of this; it's a win/win; players get paid and owners wanting it will get relief. Players can sign with another team or just disappear in the mist if they either are not able or not willing to play any longer.
If I Was the Union - Accept the amnesty if the amnestied money no longer counts against either the cap or tax.

Cap Reform

I appear to be in the minority on this matter; but I’ve felt for a long time reform is needed if the league ever cares to introduce fiscal sanity in the NBA system. Neither steamrolling cost cuts or maintaining status quo deals with the goal to provide a means for sincere owners to operate effectively without runaway spending and circumventing the rules. The DCNO owners sadly you can’t make them run a franchise in a sincere manner.

Two primary areas I see for reform are contract buyouts and injury exceptions. Both are facts of life that often times handcuff a franchise either by exploding spending over the cap and tax; or paralysis of action for fear of cost overruns.

Owners have insurance on players. If a player has a major injury the team gets insurance money back to cover the player loss. An Injury Trade Exception can also be available. Some owners choose to not use the trade exception but also pocket the insurance money; straight profit for the owner and the team & fans lose twice. Contract buyouts also occur, but the money does not fall off of the cap & tax even though the player is immediately able to sign elsewhere. Again, teams and fans lose twice (lose the player / cannot replace the player).

Perspective – I would address Injury Exceptions and Contract Buyouts. Injury Exceptions would be two-fold. 1) Players acquired via Trade Exceptions should not count against the cap, or at least not against the luxury tax. With agreed upon shorter contracts, this becomes less of a risk. 2) If a team chooses to not use an Injury Trade Exception they should not be allowed to cash in on the Injury Insurance money; though I would give on this point.

I would push for Contract Buyouts not counting against the cap; or at least not counting against a tax.

If I Was the Union – Change so insurance exceptions and buyouts no longer count against the cap; or at least against the tax.

 

Luxury Tax
Proposed - A luxury tax of $2 for every $1, then $3 for every $1 for hitting the tax line three times in a five-season span, and then $4 for every $1 for teams that stray beyond the tax line five straight seasons.
Perspective - Owners want this but also fight revenue sharing. This smells more like the DCNO owners wanting to pawn this off on the players because they can't win their argument with the AGARA owners.
If I Was the Union - Fight to keep status quo. If other matters get resolved smartly, then this issue loses some relevance.

 

Free Agency

Interestingly, changes to free agency has not been brought up

If I Was the Union – I would keep same framework in place; especially in light of other changes.

 

Contract Opt Outs

This is one subject I am in agreement with the owners… somewhat. Throughout league history there have been horrible contract signings… long term high dollar contracts.

Perspective - Except for cases of legitimate long term or career ending injury, players who benefit from these horrible contracts should not be exempt from change. If anything, the Eddy Curry’s of the league is where the biggest reform should take place.

If I Was the Union – Implement both team and player contract opt outs every two years of a contract.

 

Salary Cap
It had fallen under the radar a bit by the BRI; but this seems to always be an agenda headliner by the DCNO owners; a smaller cap, a harder cap, a cap with a straight bill rather than curved, a cap with a propeller on the top that spins in circles with the wind.
Perspective - Revenue is up but the cap must go down. Shortening the cap or hardening it makes little sense unless the owners are willing to address their failings through reform; such as handling of bad paper. Shorter contract length helps but owners in the real world still need to take responsibility for their mistakes.
If I Was the Union – Agree to keep the cap number similar to what it is today. Much of the runaway costs would be addressed with shorter contracts, shorter/smaller MLE. Give & take is needed. Not in favor of a hard cap unless the cap is higher and other reforms to remove bad money off of the cap are implemented.

BRI
This has been talked to death; 57, 47, 53, 43, 51, 49, 50, 50, no no nooo. That the players should have a smaller slice of the pie I think is fair; that the players should totally flop down to 43% I disagree with. The players are the product. If the owners want to spend less, they should expect a lesser quality product and in turn charge the fans less for a lower quality product. Of course that's not the case; though some owners may fantasize of paying the LeBron’s only  $2M a year, raise ticket prices and the cost of parking, nachos & beer (if they could get away with it of course) pocket all the money and never let any player move on their own.
Perspective - I believe resolution of this would be a byproduct of dealing with the other matters, rather than vice versa.
If I Was the Union - I think 53% is reasonable. If the owners want a true 50/50 then in turn it should be for the whole pie, including the slice the owners skim off the top before splitting with the players.

Contract Roll Backs

Look forward, not backward.

Perspective – Write this off as the price of doing business. If you don’t like the paper, amnesty or buy the player out. In turn you get shorter contracts, smaller MLE & opt outs to avoid bad paper in the future.

If I Was the Union – No opt outs.

 

Franchise Tag
Though not mentioned recently, I do suspect this is still on the owners wish list. Depending on whether and how bad the beat the union, don't be surprised if the owners try to push this through.
Perspective - A Franchise Tag is a bad thing. It is a bad thing in the NFL and will be just as bad of a thing in the NBA. This tag would give the DCNO another tool to generate more revenue by forcing to keep a player on the roster while refusing to invest in improving the team around him. This would have been Melo last year and Blake Griffin in a few years.
If I Was the Union - I would refuse this and fight it strong. It would be a bad tool to impact the players and have a trickledown effect to the rest of the roster.

Union Decertification
Major trap here; thankfully the agents finally understood just what the risk is and stopped trying to sell this to the players.
Perspective - This isn't a magic Ace card in the union's sleeve. The DCNO owners would love the union to de-certify; then they could take the argument to court and claim since the union was de-certified by the players all agreements as part of the union are now null and void... including player salaries. And, it is distinctly possible the owners would win this argument in court and the NBA truly does go full nuclear.
If I Was the Union - Stay away from this unless the rank in file truly is prepared to lose everything in trying to win their argument.

Goals for Agreement:

Contract Length – Agree to 4yr/3yr
Bird Rights and the Melo Rule – Agree to no change
MLE – Agree to $4m/2yr annual MLE with player Bird rights after the 2years
Amnesty – Agree to 1x amnesty contingent on amnestied money does not count against the cap or tax
Cap Reform – Agree to positive reforms in areas such as Injury Exception, Contract Buyout and such

Luxury Tax – Agree to current luxury tax in place today
Free Agency – Agree to current free agency framework

Contract Opt Outs – Agree to player and franchise opt-outs every two years

Salary Cap – Agree to plan similar to what is in place today
BRI – 52/48, 51/49, possibly even 50/50 dependent on successful agreement on the other goals
Contract Roll Backs - No

Franchise Tag – No

Union Decertification - No

**Update Alert**. Version 1.1 with updates from v1.0

No, not that KMart...

 

The NBA lockout is still weeks (months, years) from resolution; and there is no guarantee that the new CBA will include an amnesty clause.

 

But in the event the lockout is resolved this decade and a new CBA is signed which includes a One Time Amnesty Clause; here is my FPG (First Pass Guesstimation) on who, if any, each team may choose to amnestize and who I would consider pursuing if my name ended in Dolan…

 

Atlanta – Marvin Williams. Disappointing, but not horrible pro; possible for low dollar/low risk

 

Boston – Jermaine O’Neal. Unless Rasheed’s money stays on the books; but either way… Hell No.

 

Charlotte – DeSagana Diop. Has produced a little in the past. Not really worth it anymore. Darkhorse could be Charlotte deciding to be rid of Maggette’s $21MM money ($10.2 & $10.9 over the nex 2years)

 

Chicago – No Amnesty? Possibly Korver ; Deng makes too much money but amnestying him makes little sense

 

Cleveland – Baron Davis. I don’t think he’d be worth the bidding war and headache to sign him

 

Dallas – Brendan Haywood. Contract length is long, but I can’t see Cuban risk losing both Centers. If available I’d go after Haywood

 

Denver – Al Harrington or Chris Anderson. I’d say don’t go after either. I like Harrington as a 6th man; but don’t see him coming back. Don’t go after Anderson at all, hard worker but very limited skills, old for his years, deteriorating basketball health; really, stay away from this “frown turned upside down” sad story turned good player.

 

Detroit – Rip Hamilton; appears to be a foregone conclusion. Very good low dollar/low duration addition

 

Golden State – Andris Biedrins; though could GSW have true buyer’s remorse towards David Lee? Would not bother going after Biedrins. A big who can no longer stay healthy and who’s game flushed away with lost confidence will not re-discover health nor skill in the Big Apple

 

Houston – No Amnesty? Possibly Hill or Thabeet; but not sure dumping either does much

 

Indiana – Dahntay Jones. Great defensive addition, low dollar; would make him a priority

 

LAC – No Amnesty? Don’t really have anyone they have to get rid of

 

LAL – Luke Walton. World B. Free v2.0’s contract is 1yr longer and a $1mm/yr more; but doesn’t even get on the court anymore. Would not pursue

 

Memphis – Dark horse guess but Rudy Gay; Memphis’ cap is excellent but the owner is also a major cost cutting hawk. If he can’t trade Gay immediately he may sacrifice Gay for Zach & Gasol. Consider going after Gay; but can he play SG and is it worth the bidding war to get him

 

Miami – No Amnesty? Only exception is if they decide Miller’s non-reliability is not worth four more years

 

Milwaukee – Drew Gooden. Don’t bother, his “underrated-ness” is way overrated

Minnesota – No Amnesty? Possibly Darko, Brad Miller, Luke Ridnour, or Anthony Randolph; but not worth bothering with any of them; especially not Brad Miller

 

New Jersey – Travis Outlaw. Horribly overpriced role player. Excellent addition if  low dollar/low duration

 

New York – Renaldo Balkman. He’s harder to be rid of than Dracula in the old “Hammer” films of the 60’s

 

OKC – No Amnesty? Any chance they could amnesty Sam Presti?

 

Orlando – Hidayet Turkoglu. Gilbert Arenas. Initially thought Hedo could be an option (who's career is circling the drain faster?)  but if it is Arenas' face stapled to the front of the amnesty... that kind of says it all. Either way, wouldn’t bother with either

 

Phiadelphia – No Amnesty? Possibly Brand who is big dollar, but amnestying him does not make much sense

 

Phoenix – Josh Childress. If it was Warrick I’d go after him; wouldn’t bother with Childress

 

Portland – No Amnesty? Would the Blazers really have the ball-up sweatsocks to cut loose Brandon Roy? I still have to see it to believe it

 

Sacramento – No Amnesty? Possibly John Salmons, money is not horrible but duration is bad. Is he worth keeping? Possibly pursue but not sure how much value you’d get

 

San Antonio – No Amnesty? Possibly Richard Jefferson, but they may have turned a corner with him. If he is amnestied I wouldn’t bother; bad choice to bring off the bench

 

Toronto – Linas Kleiza. Possibly amnesty no one; though Kleiza with three more years may have disappointed. Would not go after this player, bad fit

 

Utah – Mehmet Okur. If his health is not there; but if he’s amnestied with only 1year left, do not pursue him, you’ll be inheriting his injuries too

 

Washington – Rashard Lewis. The poster child of a player getting way too much money that his production and maturity to support. As a low dollar / low risk player he may be worth pursuing; even though he is a 32yr old 6’10” SF… meaning he’s a shooter but no rebounding. Would he be hungry for end of career redemption in the big apple

 

 

2011 Amnesty Shopping List includes

Based on the guesstimated list above, if it all came true… but who are we kidding of course it will come true!!!... or not… here would be my priority shopping list

 

Brendan Haywood (Still doubt he’ll be on the market)

Rip Hamilton (Short term get on the cheap; don’t overspend)

Travis Outlaw or Dahntay Jones (pursue Outlaw first; probably not both)

Possibly Rashard Lewis (Possibly)

 

Most of the others either are not the right fit or are primarily starters that I realistically doubt they would adjust to playing off the bench (you have to factor in attitude and desire). Plus the traditional free agents will also be available to consider.

 

As things come further into focus version 2 will be published

 

Views opinions and rants from afar...

 

The Knicks and Heat are virtual twins in NBA style & development. Both teams committed to superstars at the expense of team skill & depth; so now both teams need to fill in the gaps and improve their roster and overall depth with preferably young, skilled, smart, reliable, healthy and durable players who have talent but will understand their roles. Failures to do so by either team could, and likely will, result in failure to win a title.

 

The Knicks formula of success falls within their current roster, available free agents, available trades, the draft along with decisions in coaching and the front office.

 

Granted, what is written here is based on operating under current NBA rules and restrictions. What the future CBA holds is unknown; but the one reasonable expectation is that whatever changes, good or bad, will impact all teams so much of the need-to's and to-do's here would still be applicable.

 

Current Roster... what to do, what to do:

1.     Melo (Keeper...duh!!!)

2.     Amare (Keeper unless trading him could actually bring back Dwight Howard)

3.     Billups (Keeper unless you truly could make that 3rd superstar blockbuster... not likely)

4.     Turiaf (Keeper but not long term. He's a heartbreaker; you see the desire & commitment and skill... but his health isn't and won't ever be reliable)

5.     Fields (Keeper, likely starter though probably better from the bench)

6.     AC (your roster can be 15 deep, 1yr veteran minimum salary, his intagibles are huge and when you actually need a couple of minutes from him, he does deliver)

7.     Douglas (Keeper, 1st SG/PG off the bench unless an upgrade is acquired)

8.     Jerome Jordan (Bring him on but do not expect much from him... let a 2nd year rookie be a rookie)

9.     Shawne Williams (Bring back preferably at 1yr vet minimum, unless you find a good replacement)

 

The Rest:

Balkman (seems to be a nice enough guy, but really just buy him out, cut him loose and end the age of Balk... him as a NBA player? it ain't gonna happen)

Brown, Rautins, Walker (younger strictly end of benchers, if they're still here it is because the team could not acquire enough improved depth)

Jefferies, Shelden Williams, Mason (veteran strictly end of benchers, if they're still here it is because the team could not acquire enough improved depth)

Offseason Shopping List... so much shopping, too little time, money or credit:

Many players I chose not to include because they either are not realistic, not a good fit, would make no sense to acquire, fall under the Circus Freak or Dumpster Fire category or fall under the Broken Player category. There's also been a lot of "bring back the Melo Knicks" discussion (Chandler, Felton); but are they the right players to acquire and can you really get a reasonable deal with Denver that doesn't require giving up too much or bringing back too much bad paper (players with bad contracts).

 

PG/SG/SF

Sign & Trade

Wilson Chandler (RFA, Denver won't let him just walk away because of a MLE offer; but can he really be a long term answer as a SG?)

 

Require a Trade

Raymond Felton (You may have to give up Fields... and Billups; but you may be able to get him... but you'd have to take Harrington with him)

Andre Miller (Not sure what it'll take & Portland may opt out his final year; but real underrated PG, Melo's offensive thrived when playing with 'Dre)

 

Possible MLE

Jamal Crawford (for a team needing a veteran who can shoot, understands his role and actually cares about winning, this would be a strong fit)

 

PF/C

Sign & Trade

Samuel Dalembert (longshot and the MLE just won't cut it... but making this deal I'd put as a priority)

Glen Davis (MLE won't cut it and Boston making a s&t here ain't gonna happen)

 

Require a Trade

Brendan Haywood (Slightly overpriced but a good plan B if you can't get Dalembert... though Dallas probably won't be interested)

 

Possible MLE

Boris Diaw (I think this is far more realistic than you may think; Diaw excelled under D'Antoni and would be an excellent, though smaller fit alongside Melo & Amare. Not the top priority but would be a strong move)

Carl Landry (good skilled big, probably will take all the MLE and there may be a red flag on his durability; plus you’d really prefer a starting Center rather than PF so Amare can focus on the PF position)

 

Portion of MLE or Bi-annual

Chuck Hayes (A legit young, durable, reliable and tenacious frontline defender ... needs to be a priority)

Josh McRoberts (Only 1 legit year of performance, but worth pursuing for $2.5-3M as a backup or if you can't trade for a legit Center. I’d rather risk this player flaming out than throw money and empty tank and/or broken bigs)

 

Veteran's Minimum

Kwame Brown (has shown he is a little better than being a huge bust... but small minute end of bencher... last resort type of signing)

Nazr Mohammed (don't think he has much left... maybe as a last resort for the minimum)

 

Draft:

Don’t swing for the fences, you have 2 superstars, now the team needs young talented player depth. Identify the smartest, most durable skilled PG/SG/PF-C available in the draft. If you can pull off a “buy a late 1st for money and/or a future throw away 2nd rd pick” then double up on the smart players or possibly take a flyer at that time on a boom or bust type.

 

Shooting from hip, my guess is, the Knicks will draft a PG

 

Coach:

It doesn’t really make sense to reward D’Antoni by firing him. Let him continue and see if the team continues to improve with him. He does need to dedicate effort and players towards defense or the team will make the playoffs again but not threaten. There's likely a better coach to lead the Knicks to a title run; but I do not he is out there today.

 

Front Office:

I’d go with Kevin Pritchard. His ego is huge but really the only thing he did wrong was get caught in a self-serving power play and got released for it. Pritchard's successes include re-building the Blazers roster from the dumpster fire "Jailblazers daze" (handiwork by Mark Warkentien) to a young talented roster. Also Pritchard showed he could operate in a environment with a toxic diva owner (imagine James Dolan without the New York Press and what do you get... Paul Allen!!!).

 

Lastly, I would acquire the following player through trade:

Dahntay Jones

Dahntay's time in Denver proved one thing: when you unleash the Inferno on your opponent having him focus just on defense... he's huge

Dahntay's time in Indiana proved something else: when you expect Dahntay to do anything else... it's a huge mistake

Indiana wants to get rid of him so you can get him for a song and his money is small ($2.7M next year and a $2.9M player option the year after)

Get the Inferno to be your defensive bulldog and let him loose on the LeBron's, Kobe's and DWades of the world. He's already proven he excels in that role and also has proven he plays very well alongside Melo & Billups. 

 

Stay Away Froms… You’ve Been Warned 

Until salary caps and guaranteed contracts go away; a team, unless they have mad Mark Cuban money, has to be cut throat and not acquire circus freaks, dumpster fires or broken players.

 

And please notice there were no circus freak or dumpster fires on roster of the 2011 NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks.

  

So, after all the words words words… my opening night Knicks for the 2011/12 season could look like:

 

GM:

Pritchard

 

Coach:

D’Antoni

 

Roster...If I had Carte Blanche…

Dre/Douglas/1st Rd Pick/AC

Billups/Fields

Melo/Diaw/Dahntay

Amare/Hayes

Dalembert/Turiaf/McRoberts/Jordan

 

 

Lastly… Pop Quiz, You Make the Call.

Your considering two comparable FA to provide a defensive presence on your front line.

Player A – 28yrs old, over the last 5 years has averaged 77games/yr (94%), 452 rebounds/yr (5.5/game over 82games) & 341 points/yr (4.2/game over 82 games)

Or

Player B – 34yrs old, over the last 5 years has averaged 49games/yr (60%), 344 rebounds/yr (4.2/game over 82games) & 549 points/yr (6.7/game over 82 games)

 

Which player would you choose to sign?

 or… How to get under the Luxury Tax and get four 1st rd picks and three new players

 

This thread follows two assumptions:

• Melo is gone
• It makes no sense to keep Nene during the re-build process. Trade him now for top dollar
• The New Jersey Nets suck... Melo is not going to sign an extension with them no matter how much Stan and the ESPN squawking heads want him to
• Melo is not re-signing with the Nugs. The Nugget organization had 8 years to take care of business. they failed; time that Melo and everyone else moves on

 

Rather than continuing to drag out this sad tragic train wreck… or worse, fear that the Kronkster is planning to go full Donald Sterling, fight for the franchise tag with the singular intent of forcing Melo to stay and surround him with minimum wage players… all so tickets could be sold, my wish is to just cut the Melo deal now so the rest of the dominos can fall and further deals can be made to secure top trade dollar for Nene and JR (immediate cap relief or a future 1st)

 

Here’s how I’d do it… based on recent rumors and team intents

 

Deal #1: Melo Deal… Just pull the trigger already on the Den/NY/Minn deal

• Minn gives – Future 1st, Trade Exception
• Minn gets –  Curry, Randolph
• NY gives – Gallinari, Chandler, Curry, Randolph, future 1st
• NY gets – Melo, Balkman
• Den gives – Melo, Balkman
• Den gets – Gallinari, Chandler, Two future 1sts

 

Deal #2: Nene to Houston

• Houston gives –Jordan Hill, Two future 1sts, expiring contracts for Battier & Jeffries
• Houston gets – Nene, Harrington
• Den gives – Nene Harrington
• Den gets - Jordan Hill, Two future 1sts, expiring contracts for Battier & Jeffries

 

Deal #3: Dump JR

• Houston gives – Trevor Ariza Trade Exception (worth $6.3mm)
• Houston gets – JR’s expiring contract
• Den gives – JR’s expiring
• Den gets – $6m immediate cap relief

 

In deal #1 I’d rather settle for dumping Balkman then taking on Corey Brewer (as was rumored)

 

The intent with Deal #3 is that Houston is willing to eat JR’s cap space as an incentive to get Nene.

 

To make the Houston deal happen, the Nugs may have to choose between Two 1st’s or Hill and a 1st. If you can get all three (Houston’s 2011 1st would be protected of course) for a guaranteed Nene that’d be a fair winner

 

The Nugs may be able to find a trade partner for Billups; but given the short timeframe I suspect they’ll just keep Billups. The Nugs won’t find a taker for Kmart because the Nugs won’t take back bad paper

 

Carter, Ely, Williams, Kmart, Battier and Jeffries will be gone next; and quite possibly (likely?) Billups

 

The Nuggets would roll into their 2011/12 rebuild with the following:

• Up to Five 1st round picks to use or deal
• Aaron Afflalo
• Ty Lawson
• Gary Forbes
• Jordan Hill
• Wilson Chandler
• Danilo Gallinari
• Chris Anderson

And an ending 2010/11 cap figure around $64m

 

Is it a happy ending for the post-Melo Nuggest? No

 

 

Is it the best the Nuggets are going to do?

No, there's been no "according to reports" (meaning some media squawker making up a new rumor) news flash.

Just following along the lines of if Melo truly wanted to stay and the Nuggets organization (that means you Stan) truly committed to building up a contender rather than tearing down... if Melo said he wanted Steve Nash; would you make the deal and what would you give up.

We're not talking Rent-a-Wreck here; Nash is a hall of famer still operating at near peak form and has 1 1/2 years left on a reasonable ($11m) contract.

On the downside the Nuggets are weak in 2 of the 3 items the Suns would want back (young players and future 1st's). The Nuggets would have to take back 1, likely 2 bad contracts in return to get Nash for a 2year title run.

The other fly in the ointment is Phoenix may require any Nash trade partners to take Childress' bad contract.

I'd start with the following offer:

Denver sends:

• KMart
• Lawson
• One future 1st Rd Pick (possibly 2 if absolutely necessary)

Phoenix sends

• Nash
• Frye
• Lopez
• Take back Warrick, in addition to Frye & Lopez, if necessary to make the deal (especially if the Nugs have to give up two future 1st's

Stay away from Childress at all costs

I'd be open to also send a future 1st, depending on what the Suns  give in return. I'd also try as hard as possible to avoid Childres' toxic contract (bad money, long duration). If Childress was a deal maker/breaker I'd at least try to make the Suns take Balkman and/or Anderson in return.

On the local... or is it loco... radio today I heard...

Under the presumption that the FO would work with Melo and identify a player or players to bring to the Nuggets with the intent of A) chasing a title and B) convince Melo to stay.

Now granted this radio talk had no basis in fact... even to the extent the dreaded "well Melo and Ujiri have never talked about this together but"... was mentioned.

For a year now (since the 2010 trade deadline passed by waving at it passed) I've been the first to say and stand behind the 2 following statements:

1) Melo is leaving because he has tired of the disingenuous Nuggets FO & ownership who have no commitment to chasing a title
2) I really hope I'm wrong

For Melo to have a realistic chance to win a title either of the following has to happen:

1) Melo Leaves (likely conclusion)

2) Stan Kroenke gets out of the way (unlikely conclusion)

There is no middle ground. Any belief of a middle ground is delusional... with 8 years of proof behind it. If an owner is obsessing about a franchise tag that means he is an owner with no commitment to a title. It is an owner more worried about squeezing a profit out of a product with no regard to the product... or to the people he's hurting... in other words, Donald Sterling... but that's beside the point.

So time for some fun... let's say Melo is sincerely willing to maybe stay and Ujiri and Son of Stan is willing to craft the team to better fit Melo... What moves do you do?

Especially with Afflalo's impressive maturity I would immediately (as always) look to deal the following

Kenyon Martin

JR Smith

I'd love to dump... errr I mean deal Birdman, but sadly unless someone took him as a reason to take Melo, he's not going anywhere... write it off as bad paper; thankfully low to mid dollar bad paper.

But who to get?

Captain Jack, Wallace, Diaw all are for sale with Charlotte who want to cut costs. Unfortunately none except for Jack really fit a role the Nugs need filled. Wallace brings the D and Diaw brings a strong all around game; but are they really to close to SF type roles (Melo's role) to help?

Sorry ahead of time for triple billing in one day but...

Melo leaves the Nuggets in a display of bad management by the Nuggets. Billups? likely gone, one way or the other. Nene? could be traded rather than commit to a future $10m+/yr contract going forward.

But JR wants to remain a Nugget. and Masai Ujiri's desire is for Smith to re-sign with the Nuggets during the summer.

Through the Nuggets dumpster fire of epic proportions, rising from the ashes... is JR Smith. Are Nuggets fans really going to be OK with this?

The Difference between making a deal to sell tickets or cutting cost and making a deal to win a title.

You sign Kenyon Martin to sell tickets

You acquire a legitimate Shooting Guard after signing Kmart to pair with Melo, Andre, Camby, Nen and Kmart because you are committed to winning a title (obviously didn’t happen) rather than marching out retreads like Voshon Lenard or washouts like Demarr Johnson

You trade for Allen Iverson to sell tickets; especially after a long suspension is handed out to Melo & JR

You make the follow-up trade for Artest because you are committed to winning a title (didn’t happen)

You trade for Chauncey Billups to sell tickets

You keep Antonio McDyess rather than buy out his contract because you are committed to winning a title (didn’t happen)

You dump Marcus Camby for a bag of balls and athletic tape to cut cost

You trade Marcus Camby for legitimate players in return because you are committed to winning a title (didn’t happen)

You let tens of millions of dollars in trade exceptions expire, and throw away draft choices to cut cost

You use at least some of the trade exceptions to acquire legitimate players because you are committed to winning a title (didn’t happen)

You wax poetic about the Deron Williams, Marc Gasol,  Al Jefferson and David Lee trades that ALMOST happen because you chose to cut cost

You stop polishing your excuses and actually make a trade for Deron Williams or Marc Gasol or Al Jefferson or David Lee and stop whining… because you are committed to winning

You commit to winning a title, you allow your FO, right or wrong, the opportunity to succeed or fail. You draft , sign and trade for players with the collective aim towards excellence because you are committed to winning a title

You sit at home, pout, get  red-faced puff out your chest make threats like “I’ll get a franchise tag, I’ll get you at recess” and just generally sit at home playing with your Big Bertha… because you are NOT committed to winning

But of course, it's always somebody else's fault... that's right, I forgot that part.

 

That is the question. Is it better to keep a player who is a good player and sometimes when motivated a very effective player with hopes of signing to an extension? Or trade now a NBA legit big who, by most trusted and informed accounts, did not develop into the type of impact player his skill and athleticism suggested.

 

Nene, according to the press, has expressed an interest in staying in Denver. Nene, according to the press, has also expressed a list of teams, including... what a surprise... Miami, he'd like to be traded to if he was traded.

 

Being a NBA "Footer"... or near Footer in this case, Nene will have genuine value and interest in the Free Agent market this summer, regardless of the CBA. Being a non-elite player, Nene is also not likely to get a FA paycheck much bigger that what he's slated to get if he doesn't opt out (approx $11m). Is Nene an impact player? Would his cost be worth keeping him as one of the leftover "core" players the Nuggets would start re-building with?

 

While Nene may want to go to Miami, the Heat cannot build through anymore trades. They have no tradeable commodities on the roster and they burned up a large allottment of 1st round picks in the LeBron & Bosh sign&trades. The Heat's only hope at true team greatness is a FA friendly CBA and maybe the continuance of the Mid-Level Exception to add more good to very good players around the big 3.

 

Who could the Nuggets trade Nene to? A Nene trade won't have the dumpster fire circus of the absurd that the Nuggets Front Office have been operating under. Nene has value but is not an elite player; he's still young and his cap value is not huge. A good and fair deal can be made where everyone wins. The trade partner will need to be a good team (for Nene to want to re-sign with) be a team who believe they are a C or PF away from a title, and have trade pieces (draft picks, young cheap good players, cap room) that would interest Denver.

 

One option... arch rival Oklahoma City. You hate to trade in your division; but if Denver makes such a deal it is shortly after Melo is traded and the Nuggets season for all intents is over. Say maybe Nene for Jeff Green and Serge Ibaka? Jeff Green is a young good player but not really a legit PF. The Thunder it is believed are not planning to give Green the big payday. Though not a legit PF, Green is a good young player would be a very good addition to the Nuggets. Ibaka is young, good sized and demonstrating to be an effective role-playing big. For a re-building team he may be a starting Center, or maybe starting PF; but definitly would be a big who could be counted on minutes and effort.

 

Throw in about $3.5m in cap filler or maybe Trade Exception since the Thunder are a few million beneath the salary cap... and a deal is in place.

 

No you can't do Nene for Granger because Nene doesn't want to go to the Pacers; no you can't do Nene to the Wolves for Love because neither Nene nor the Wolves are that stupid. No you can't to the Heat because Miami has nothing to trade for. You can also throw out the Nyets, Pistons, Cavs, Raptors, Lakers, Bulls and most other teams too for any combination of the following reasons: 1)Nene won't sign an extension with a bad team 2)A team that can't keep Nene won't want to trade for him unless they thought they could roll him over into another deal and 3)The Nuggets wisely won't trade Nene to a team unless they can get something in return that they want.

Houston though, with their draft choices, could also be a trade partner option.

 

Unless Mikhail Prokhorov plans include the Russian Mafia in his back pocket use them to "convince" Melo to join New Jersey (why do I keep seeing that image though I’m sure Prokhorov is completely an honest and upright Russian businessman…); if Melo says nyet to the NJ Nyets then Stan and the dreamers are back to Plan B options

 

·         Trade Melo to the Knicks (where Melo wants to go)

·         Trade Melo via Rent-a-Player (where you likely will get less)

 

The problem with the Rent-a-Player scenario is just who are the realistic options for such a trade? The Mavs, Rockets and maybe the Magic have been mentioned. But getting down to brass tacks, what would the deals be?

 

In a Rent-a-Player scenario we know

 

·         Trading teams aren’t going to offer as much as teams thinking they’ll get Melo to sign the extension

·         The Nuggets likely will want back cap savings and future 1st round picks. Trying to get young talent back in a rental deal doesn’t look very realistic

 

Glancing at the league (who’s competing, who’d realistically want Melo short term, who realistically could make such a trade, etc.) here are some options

 

Chicago

If the Bulls thought Melo could help in a title run I could see their interest. The problem is they do not have the resources to make a rental deal

 

Dallas

The Mavs have expiring contracts and future late 1st round picks but not much else unless they got real creative (meaning 3rd team inclusion)

Deal: Melo for Butler, Buckner, Mahinmi & Novak’s expiring contracts (worth $12.7m), Beaubois (worth $1.1m) & 2011 1st Rd Pick... maybe more draft picks (likely not a lot more for a rental)

Why would Melo want it: Title run

Why would Mavs do it: 2yr rental if they convince Melo to not opt out, title run, try to get Melo to extend

Why would Nugs do it: Cap savings, future 1st (not good one though) and Beaubois (injured, not as valuable as last year). Not a lot of real good reasons for Denver to make this deal

 

Houston

The Rockets can offer better 1st round picks than Dallas along with cap savings without having to get as creative

Deal: Melo for Battier & Jeffries expiring contracts (worth $14.2mm), Budinger (worth $780K) and 2011 1st Rd Pick... maybe more draft picks (likely not a lot more for a rental)

Why would Melo want it: Can’t think of a reason outside of marketing to the Chinese market

Why would Rockets do it: Rockets are tanking this year, can’t think of a reason other than immediate ticket sales and thinking they have a sluggers chance of signing Melo

Why would Nugs do it: Cap savings, future 1st, and Budinger who they could also opt out if they didn’t like him

 

Orlando

A deal would have to include Richardson and I frankly don’t remember if Orlando could turn around and trade him after just acquiring him. A juicier deal could be made where the Nugs get Richardson and Bass for Melo and Balkman. The Nugs likely would have to throw in more actual value like a future 1st to entice Orlando; and I don’t see that happening

Deal: Melo for Richardson and Allen’s (yeah Tacos pt 2) expiring contract (worth $15.4m), 2012 1st Rd Pick... maybe more draft picks (likely not a lot more for a rental)

Why would Melo want it: Orlando title run, possibly sign extension

Why would Magic want it: Same… title run, try to talk Melo into either not opting out or sign extension

Why would Nugs want it: Not a real good deal, cap savings but future 1st not expected to be good

 

New Orleans Expos

The Expos actually have a better record than Denver. Similar to 2008, New Orleans could actually make a realistic title run this year with Melo

The problem is New Orleans are NBA-owned, just trimmed off their luxury tax money. To get Melo would require using trade exceptions in a 3team deal to build up enough pieces to get Melo. Otherwise the Expos would have to include David West; and similar to the Clippers, it is not realistic to think they’d give up a valuable player solely in a rental deal

Deal: Some combination of Banks, Green, Thornton and/or Smith’s expiring contracts (worth up to $11.6m), trade Mo Peterson’s Trade Exception to a 3rd team for another expiring contract or player (worth up to $6m), 2012 1st Rd Pick... maybe more draft picks (likely not a lot more for a rental)

Why would Melo want it: Play 1 or 2 years with CP3 in the Big Easy

Why would New Orleans want it: Doubt they’d go for it unless they actually wanted to make a real effort to try to keep CP3

Why would Nugs want it: Not a real good deal unless the Peterson exception was used to bring back a young player the Nugs actually wanted rather than just expiring contracts

 

Would any of those deals actually be better than what the Knicks have to offer?

 

Frankly I would love to watch Melo, West and CP3 in the Big Easy for this season and maybe next. Then in 2012 CP3 could opt out and him & Melo could ride off together in the sunset, onto New York,  Brooklyn, Los Angeles or some other exotic destination

  

Far be it to only communicate a single point of view, here is a link to Mark Kiszla’s latest column where he points out that Stan Kroenke is the ultimate power, judge and jury behind the completion of Melo’s trade…

 

http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_17092757

 

Fair points though I must strongly disagree on one point.

 

“Kroenke has pumped so much money into the Nuggets, paying the luxury tax and forgoing profits in the pursuit of the one championship he would most cherish, that he has told folks that this NBA team has been his own private charity case.”

 

It is true that Kroenke has pumped a lot of money into the Nuggets; however Kroenke did not spend smartly or responsibly; and at the first sign of trouble he would consistently make the Nuggets faithful suffer.

 

It is not true that he has dedicated himself towards the “championship he would most cherish”. You can’t be committed to winning a title while at the same time ordering your front office to cut cut cut costs. It’s one or the other; you can’t have it both ways.

 

Kroenke can be as mad and hurt as he wants towards Melo; but a little perspective is in order. Has the Nuggets ever during Melo’s term gone all out to build a winner? The answer is no. There were a number of half measures but always the team stopped short because it didn’t want to spend more.

 

Phase 1 Pro: Draft Melo, sign Andre Miller & Earl Boykins, kept Camby. Con: did not acquire a SG

 

Phase 2 Pro: sign Kmart. Con: did not acquire a SG

 

Phase 3 Pro: Traded for Iverson. Con: made no other move of consequence to improve the team

 

Phase 4 Pro: Traded for Billups, sign Dahntay Jones, Chris Anderson. Con: let Camby go, bought out McDyess, made no other move of consequence to improve the team.

 

For too many years, Nuggets fans have had to watch an expensive but inferior product while injury exceptions went unused, $16-20mm worth of trade exceptions allowed to expire, draft depth ignored and salaries cut in order to save money. The Nuggets employed a physically (and mentally) fragile roster. The fans had to watch a team who had up to 40% of their high end roster constantly out injured while the team did nothing about it.

 

Kroenke’s actions more reflect the spoiled child having a tantrum and threatening to take his toys and go home because everyone did not play the game exclusively by his rules.

 

Kroenke may not feel he owes an explanation to myself or others or to take any accountability. But in turn Kroenke does not deserve my respect which he frankly could care less about.

 

But more importantly Kroenke does not deserve my money; no money for nachos, no money for hot dogs, no money for beer or soda, no money for parking and no money for tickets to watch his folly.

 

Again please tell me, how is it that that this whole travesty is Melo’s fault?

 

Thank you Adrian Wojnarowski for publishing nationally what I have been saying for over a year. If you have not read it, check out the following Yahoo Sports article...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-anthonyfeature011311

In short, the article identifies many of the agendas, villains and dealings that fans and the local press often times refuse to acknowledge or talk about. The biased fan will disparage the article and accuse Wojnarowski of negative bias; but when taking off the rainbow-colored glasses and look objectively you will see the reality.

Quotes of note include...

"The commissioner, the owner, the agents, they’re running one big hustle on Carmelo Anthony. Together, they’ve thrust him into a circumstance where the Denver Nuggets and New Jersey Nets are holding hostage basketball seasons, and everything’s playing out to turn a popular NBA star into a villain."

"Stan Kroenke has invested hundreds of millions into the Nuggets, and he fired a past executive of the year – Mark Warkentien – so he could have his 30-year-old son, Josh, and a former international scout, Masai Ujiri, make the trade of his franchise star."

"Mostly, it’s confirmed the reasons Anthony wants out: The Nuggets are far more farce than they are formidable."

"Anthony likes those fans, that city, and he hates that it had to play out this way. Only, he has no choice. ‘Melo lived through the dysfunction and ethical nightmares of Bret Bearup as a force in the Nuggets’ front office, and he watched Warkentien have his contract expire and let go without legitimate reason."

"Kroenke loves the hard salary cap and is pushing hard to see it implemented in the NBA."

"The consequences of these trade talks dragging on and on have destroyed two seasons – the Nuggets and the Nets. They’ve insulted paying customers in Colorado and New Jersey, and left Anthony at the mercy of his most dubious decision of all: Hiring Leon Rose and William Wesley of CAA to represent him."

"there’s a growing tension within Anthony’s camp over the agendas of the agents."

"Rose – not anyone else – constructed the idea to send Hamilton to the Nets. How this all benefits Anthony remains a mystery."

"After they deliver New Orleans’ Chris Paul to the Nets – which could be impossible with Richard Hamilton’s contract clogging the salary cap – Wesley will have what he wants: a franchise to call his own"

"Anthony keeps hearing Ujiri and his agents tell him: The Knicks don’t have a deal for you. The Knicks aren’t trying that hard (which isn’t true)"

 "In every way, Anthony is a pawn in a bigger game. He’ll be blamed as the reason basketball seasons in Denver and New Jersey have collapsed under the weight of his trade talks. Only, he has no choice. This is his free agency now, and he’s trapped from above with the agendas of David Stern and Stan Kroenke, and those below with Leon Rose and Worldwide Wes. In the end, they’ll get everything they want out of this lost season."

 "And ‘Melo, he’ll probably end up in Jersey."

 Biased? Yes. A non-positive spin? Absolutely. Likely true? Sadly Yes.

As the slow moving train wreck comes to its sad conclusion, thoughts go back to “just when did the final nail hit the coffin, what was the point where the Nuggets formally lost Melo as a member of the organization?

 

Talking heads, original-opinion-challenged net-philes and NBA websites run by “pimply faced kids who think they know basketball” (my compliments to Fox Sports Ohio who published the article that this classic quote by an anonymous NBA scout came from) may point towards the LeBron Self Love Fest last summer as the cause for the break. Yet for those who choose to ignore the propaganda and come to their own opinions based on the evidence weighed, whether right or wrong, the date the marriage ended was February 18, 2010. The date of last year’s trading deadline.

 

Prior to last year’s trade deadline, in good weather or bad, sickness nor health, for good, for bad, Melo’s public statements consistently were always “us” or “we” or “me and the Nuggets” based. After the trade deadline the quotes changed; now Melo’s quotes separated himself from the team. Why the change? The suggestion is Melo got tired of supporting a team that was not going to support him and commit through action rather than word to building a championship contender.

 

After years of throwing away draft picks so they wouldn’t have to pay them, seldom if never improving their roster through trade deadline moves or free agent signings outside of bargain basement specials, of dumping salary at the very same time they try to sell their latest blockbuster trade as proof to their commitment to winning, of letting multiple valuable very large dollar trade exceptions expire unused, Melo frankly may have got tired of watching the beloved Nuggets front office and ownership do nothing except sit around and play with their Big Bertha. The bully fest last summer where Nuggets leadership tried to force Melo to sign an extension without any demonstration of improving the team I think was just frosting on the cake nobody wants to eat.

Let’s also not forget the part about the owner behind the curtain refusing to take responsibility for poor decisions and chooses instead to dump on the fans and make pissing contest noises about trying to put in a Franchise tag in the next CBA… Hmmm it seems the San Antonio Spurs, with just 1 franchise player like the Nuggets… like the Nuggets, seem to scrape by without the franchise hammer. An example of Brains over Bawl maybe?

 

Check the history, not the rhetoric… as great as it was getting Billups, the trade was as much, or more, a salary dump; get rid of Iverson, buy out McDyess. The trade to get Iverson in the first place was a desperation move to not lose the fan’s money (err I mean the fans) during Melo’s suspension after the Maul at Madison Square Garden.

 

So, the Nuggets are going to burn the village (players and fans alike) in order to make the trade to the New Jersey Nyets for a rookie, 2 draft picks and a handful of nobodies. The team’s commitment to re-build will officially start… again. This being a team with no demonstrative history of a skilled scouting program, draft success or commitment to winning. Melo goes, Billups with him; up next Kmart (which actually is a good thing), JR (ditto), Nene and so on.

 

In a pro-Nuggets PR campaign move the Nuggets discuss giving George Karl a contract extension; but for who’s benefit? Karl’s return to better health is a wonderful story. The sad reality is the Nuggets are going down for quite awhile and George Karl has never demonstrated success building a team from the ground up. He’s demonstrated great skill as a coach; great arrogance as a coach; taking good teams and making them very good and getting fired. Other than giving Karl a retirement gig and the Nuggets leadership pretend they’re trying, who is this move really helping in either the short or long term?

 

Lastly, a couple of good reads published by a Denver columnist who is intelligent, skilled and actually has a opinion based on personal observation rather than the nameless, faceless bloggers, NBA websites run by “pimply faced kids parrot squawking Pete-n-Repeats who do nothing more than repeat the same rumor made up by another squawking-head and then pat themselves on the back laying claim to an original thought…

 

http://www.denverpost.com/krieger/ci_16962658

 

and this one

 

http://www.denverpost.com/krieger/ci_17040374

 

Which included this very poignant observation about Stan and Dreamers failed management during the Melo era…

“He's not LeBron and he's not Kobe. But having one of the two or three best scorers on the planet should still be a huge asset. You complement him with pieces that compensate for his weaknesses. Melo gave the organization eight years to make it happen. In his defense, it never did.

Instead, it built a cast with the highest diva quotient in the association. And now that it's every man for himself, watch out.”

 

Block the message; but The Word lives on forever

I wish I could take credit for coining that phrase, but alas. Though I was beaten to the punch it is still fun.

 

So what direction is the wind blowing this week? It appears towards the Nugs not dealing Melo and trying to get him to sign the extension. Reading between the lines of everybody’s quotes (Karl’s, Ujiri’s, etc.) all point towards getting Melo to sign the extension; but none specifically state to keep Melo for the long term.

 

Until the day Melo is gone I’ll keep holding hope towards the Kronk’s growing up, become real NBA owners, dedicate towards a title and keep Melo through their action and not rhetoric.

This will require a fundamental change in the Kronk’s thinking… decide to make a move proactively to improve the team rather than reactively because you have no choice in the matter. And the Kronks need to commit to spending money; not necessarily more money this year; but more money in the longer term.

Translation being if the deal is there to make and make the Nugs a title contender the Kronks need to be willing to trade expiring money for a skilled player who has a longer contract that will help the Nugs win a title.  That’s the commitment Melo is looking for before he commits… if the Good Ship Melo hasn't already set sail.

 

Truth be told the Nugs are no longer a title contender. In 2009 they were a legit contender for 2 to 3 months. In the 2008-09 season the 2nd seed Nugs were in fact in a 3way tie for 54 wins (Nugs, Blazers, Spurs) and got the 2nd seed by way of a tie breaker. Last year the Nugs finished the year in a 2way tie with 53 wins (Nugs, Jazz) and got the 4th seed by way of a tie breaker. That's benefitting by circumstance and not being a run away silver medalist in the "Class of the Conference" derby.

 

The Nugs going into this season are still a team with holes very similar to Nuggets teams in the last several years. The Nugs lack a 2nd legit starting Big, need another legit shooter, the team’s depth is thin and their trading options are limited by a cap structure missing a middle class… nearly everyone is either part of the top heavy have’s or the bottom dwelling have not’s (young player contracts included in that group).

 

Here is the proposed 2010/11 Denver Nuggets as it is currently constructed. At the moment Harrington should be the 6th man if the Nugs find another big; because Harrington is one of the best 6th men in the NBA for the last several years. I do regard JR & Kmart more as trade pawns rather than actual rotation players. If the Nugs regard either of those as rotation players (especially Kmart) then frankly kiss Melo and the Nugs being a contending team good bye.

 

Rotation:

SF – Melo

PF – Ideally another big (either PF or C)

C – Nene or another Center & Nene moves to PF

PG – AAA

SG – Billups

 

6th Man – Harrington

Swing – Open (was JR in the past)

PG – Ty

C – Birdman

PF – Williams (is that really good enough)

 

So, how to fill the holes? Scour the other teams and see what’s available. I look at Detroit, Cleveland, Charlotte and potential partners. If Indiana changes their direction they could be a partner. A longshot could be Phoenix if their team falls apart and ownership decides to go a different direction. Toronto, Philly could be options plus maybe Milwaukee if they fall backwards rather than forward. The 3 Pacific bottom feeders (Clips, GS, Sac-town) keep getting mentioned but I don’t see much potential with them; GS because they do not have much value to offer (no Biedrins & Ellis are not value acquisitions) and the Clips & Sac-town may not be interested partners if a Denver trade does not include Melo. I rule out the Northwest because division competitors aren’t going to help each other and the Southwest all have playoff contenders except for NO and the Hornets have committed to CP3 so they won’t be doing any housecleaning in the near term. Amazingly Memphis has decided to be a money player for I don't see them dealing at least for a year or so.

 

Detroit for example I could envision a package deal where the Nugs could get the shooter (Rip Hamilton) they need but would have to take back players they would either need to roll over to a 3rd team such as Prince or take on a big who I would not like on my team (Villanueva). I just don't see Prince as a PF, even in the Western Conference. And playing Melo out of position simply to make room for Prince is bad judgement. Rule of thumb, you don't play your best player out of position; you build the team around him.

I still wouldn’t rule out the Cavs as partners. The Nugs aren’t going to get Hickson or Varejao from the Cavs (because the Nugs aren’t going to offer value for them); but the Nugs could come away with Antawn Jamison which would give the Nugs 3 very skilled SF/PF types to rotate. You could get Jamison straight up for Kmart, actually save a little money get a player more reliable throughout his career than KMart and only have to eat one more year of salary. Regarding the Offense/Defense argument... Jamison may not play strong D; but, KMart can't play defense from the training table and Jamison's overall basketball skills makes KMart's skills look sad.

 

All deals out there will have some risk. Will career workhorses like Rip or Jamison continue to deliver or will they break down like Kmart and become Training Room All-Stars? It is Ujiri’s job to sift through find what makes sense and identify a deal that will deliver a legitimate NBA player to the Nugs rather than a Roster Sheet Superstar (like DJ Mbenga) and convince the Kronks to Step Up or Shut Up.

In other words... Welcome back to Denver Masai Ujiri and good luck!!!

The talking heads & posters have been laying out Melo's future for a couple of months now since Melo is keeping his intentions private.

 

Does he stay, is he traded or does he walk as a Free Agent after next season? (that last sentence is more for meeting the minimum word requirement in a posting).

 

With the recent actions by the Hornets... making trades, keeping Chris Paul informed of their actions... it begs the question:

 

If Stan asked... What moves does Melo want the Nugs to do?

In the ESPN/Entertainment Tonight world of Bennifer, Tom-Kat and Brangenlina... I bring you a "fairly" objective grading of the WRex era here in Denver.

The WRex era started on September 7, 2006; from that point I graded each step of relevance.

In short, WRex graded out as a C+... maybe a B-. They did some things well; they lacked in others. Regarding the "Bottom-line Stan" element a couple of thoughts... In every sport there are teams that overspend and don't succeed (Redskins, Knicks, Mets) and teams that are fiscally smart and excel (Patriots, Spurs, A's). Trying to play the "Stan won't let us spend" card is an excuse. How did they work around it is in question.

Disclaimer... the information is relatively accurate (based on online information)... any errors really won't greatly effect the overall score... or so I think.

Year	Action	Grade	Comment
2006	Traded for JR Smith	A	Delivering the same as Day 1; hasnt grown up
2006	Acquired Joe Smith	B-	No impact other than inclusion in AI deal
2006	Trade for S. Hunter & B. Jones	D	Gave up Reggie Evans for players who played no role
2006	Traded for AI	A	Looked better on paper than on the court.
2007	Traded for Steven Blake	B	Gave up Boykins & Hodge
2007	Signed Anthony Carter	A-	Good role player
2007	Acquired Von Wafer	C	No impact
2007	Signed Atkins as FA	D	Chose not to re-sign Blake
2009	Traded Atkins for Petro/TE	D	Gave up a 1st rd pick to unload Atkins
2008	Acquired Sonny Weems	C	No impact
2008	Did not re-sign Najera	D	Lost good role player
2008	Acquired Juwan Howard	C	B for signing him, a D for cost cutting him
2008	Traded Camby	C-	Took back TE that expired
2008	Traded for Billups	A	All star acquisition
2008	Bought out McDyess	D	Needed to keep the big more than save money
2008	Signed Dahntay	B	Good role player
2008	Traded for Balkman	C	No impact
2008	Re-signed Birdman	A	Good role player
2009	Acquired Jason Hart	C	No impact
2009	Traded Cheikh Samb	C	No impact
2009	Drafted Lawson	A-	Good acquistion; jury still out just how good
2009	Stephen Hunter Trade	F	Gave up 2 pieces; took back a TE that will expire
2009	Did not re-sign Kleiza	D	Lost good role player
2009	Did not re-sign Dahntay	D	Lost good role player
2009	Traded for James White	C	No impact, traded off as part of AAA
2009	Traded for AAA	A-	Good role player acquisition
2009	Trade for Malik Allen	D	No impact
2009	Signed Joey Graham	B-	No impact
2010	Signed Butch	C	No impact
2010	Signed Karl	C	No impact
2010	Signed Harrington	B	Good acquistion
2010	Signed Shelden Williams	C	No discernable upgrade over Petro/Tacos

I admit I did overgrade Laywson & AAA a little bit. They've proven to be valuable contributors but neither have proven they are long term legit NBA starters... so I gave the benefit of the doubt and gave them an A-.

To be frank, giving an A for Iverson is a reach. AI went to 2 all-star games but the team was worse with him than when they had Andre Miller. And they gave up a lot for AI.

The WRex apologists keep saying trading Camby was necessary for getting Billups. This is just flatly wrong and is convenient revisionist history. Bird signed a minimum contract; they could have easily gotten something back for Camby. Not doing so was just being cheap and it ultimately hurt the team's chances for a title in '08/09... think small, deliver small.

Full Disclosure... I graded Kiki's time in Denver as a C to C+. He accomplished more the WRex but he had more to work with. Most of the key Nug players are Kiki's work (Melo, Camby, Nene, KMart)... but Kiki also would've drafted Darko over Melo if he had the chance!

What do you think?

One item overlooked about the end of season and playoff failings of the 2009/10 Nuggets was the lack of Dahntay Jones on the roster.

During the 2009 playoffs Dahntay was a very valued defensive presence on the court; someone who could be thrown at CP3, Josh Howard and Kobe and deliver tenacious D, chaos just this side of dirty, and the ability to get the player he covered out of their game.

During the 2009 offseason the Nugs tried to re-sign him; but Dahntay received a more lucrative 4year $11m contract from Indiana. The Nugs later traded for Aaron Afflalo who proved to be a valued member of the team and rotation.

After a full season with the Nugs & Dahntay's belt I think both sides learned a valuable lesson: 1. Dahntay learned he's not the starting big minute player who can develop offense; and 2. Though AAA is a very good stand-up defender, AAA is not a disrupting influence on defense. The Nugs never re-gained that game turning tenacious defender who could totally mess up the head of the person he's covering. In short, the Nugs lost their economy version of Bruce Bowen; their smaller Tru Warior.

In hindsight, Dahntay's contract isn't that big. In 2010 he'll earn $2.5m, in 2011 it'll be $2.7m, in 2012 it'll be $2.9m. Compared to other contracts; especially in relation to some of the players suggested by posters to sign, Dahntay's salary is very reasonable. And, Indiana fell out of favor with Dahntay; they thought Dahntay would be more of a player than he is. He's not; he's a greatly athletic defensive stopper who can mess with the head of the player he's covering.

The Nugs greatly need more legit bigs; but the Nugs also need a defensive stopper at the wing; someone who's OK with limited minutes, will understand his role and will not only defend but will disrupt the opposition.

Bring Dahntay back. The trade would be cheap and it's already proven he's a valuable player in Karl's rotation and will wreck havoc against the Durant's, Kobe's and others... in short he's the kind of player other teams are acquiring in order to stop Melo.

Bring Dahntay home; bring the inferno back to the Pepsi Center.

The following headline, courtesy of Mark Kiszla appeared this morning:

"Kiszla: Nuggets trade Carmelo Anthony? It's possible"

Click here for the link.

How much is Kiszla being Kiszla and how much is Nuggets propaganda being fed through Kiszla. And of course Kiszla being Kiszla, he wrote it extremely pro Nuggets and continues to bestow his man crush on Silent Stan and Stan's supposed committment "Stan Kroenke craves a championship" though there has never been any actual proof of this craving in word nor action by Stan; just rhetoric by the talking heads.

I fear what we're seeing is a power game. The Nuggets want Melo to sign the extension without any proof by the Nuggets of improving the team. The Nuggets owner & FO have also been extremely quiet, almost too quiet, regarding team improvement save for the very weak "we really really tried to trade for a 2nd round pick in the draft".

Melo wants the Nuggets to show their committment and improve the team before he commits. Does he finally throw up his hands in disgust and say "trade me to NY"?

Who's going to blink first.

Since the initial 2010 Offseason thread has over 500 comments, the suggestion was made to open a new thread and retire the old one.

 

The 2010 NBA offseason is about to hit it into high gear starting with tonight’s draft. Then on July 1st the 2010 FA Frenzy will be underway. The list is large though not hugely deep at the top. An (almost) objective of the 10 top FA not in order and the potential some others may still opt out. Where will these FA’s land after July 1st?

 

1.     LeBron James

2.     Dwyane Wade

3.     Chris Bosh

4.     Amare Stoudemire

5.     Carlos Boozer

6.     Joe Johnson

7.     Dirk Nowitzki

8.     Ray Allen

9.     Rudy Gay

10.  David Lee

 

The moment is coming up that the Knicks have been dreaming of for 2 years. Are they successful or do they whiff? And if so, what do they do?

 

With $33m in available cap space will the HEAT be successful in signing 2 top FA in addition to DWade? Thus making their own Dream Team… plus 9 other guys named Hank and Ted and Frank.

 

Can the Cavs K.I.T (keep it together, keep it together)?

 

Do the Celtics blow it up or buy more paper clips & duct tape; strap, tape & staple everybody back together for one more run?

 

Do the hated Lakers sneak in and steal away another star player because those stinkin’ weasels are the Lakers and they can?

 

Also, is Chris Paul is suddenly in play; will he tip the balance in the draft & FA frenzy?

 

What about the Nugs? Entering into tonight’s draft there are teams with multiple 1st round picks; OKC, Minnesota & Memphis each have three 1st round picks they are currently holding. Plus other teams have their draft picks for sale or trade.

 

2010 Offseason Options

Here is a starting point for Nuggets 2010 offseason. Let’s see if we can keep a single forum in play and not have to continually re-start our discussions & debates:

 

Team Roster

Player	Pos	2010/11	2011/12
Affalo, Arron	SG	1,959,577	2,906,053
Andersen, Chris	C	4,000,000	4,250,000
Anthony, Carmelo	SF	17,149,243	18,518,575
Balkman, Renaldo	SF	1,675,000	1,675,000
Billups, Chauncey	PG	13,150,000	14,200,000
Lawson, Ty (est)	PG	1,546,560	1,654,440
Martin, Kenyon	PF	16,545,454	FA
Nene,	C	11,360,000	11,600,000
Smith, J.R.	SG	6,031,851	FA
Butch, Brian	C	762,000	FA
Karl, Coby	SG	854,389	FA
Allen, Malik	PF	FA	FA
Carter, Anthony	PG	FA	FA
Petro, Johan	C	FA	FA
Graham, Joey	SF	FA	FA

 

Tradable Pieces:

$3.7mm Trade Exception from the Hunter trade (expires Aug. ’10)

Rights to Linas Kleiza

Kmart’s Expiring Contract

JR’s Expiring Contract

Nene

Lawson

Afflalo

Melo

2011 First Round Draft Pick (no 2010 picks)

 

A Sampling of FA and Veterans of Interest:

(Yes I did leave off the top FA, other than Bosh, I just don’t see them as realistic)

Player	Ht	2010/11	2011/12	Pos	Team	Pts	Reb
Chandler, Tyson	7'0"	12,750,000	FA	C	CHA	6.5	6.3
Gasol, Marc	7'1"	3,480,000	FA	C	Mem	14.6	9.3
Haywood, Brendan	7'0"	FA	FA	C	DAL	8.1	7.4
Kaman, Chris	7'0"	11,300,000	12,200,000	C	LAC	18.5	9.3
Nesterovic, Rasho	7'0"	FA	FA	C	TOR	3.9	2.1
Noah, Joakim	6'11"	3,128,536	FA	C	CHI	10.7	11.0
Oberto, Fabricio	6'10"	FA	FA	C	WAS	1.5	1.8
Lee, David	6'9"	FA	FA	C/PF	NY	20.2	11.7
Amundson, Louis	6'9"	FA	FA	PF	PHO	4.7	4.4
Harrington, Al	6'9"	FA	FA	PF	NY	17.7	5.6
Haslem, Udonis	6'8"	FA	FA	PF	MIA	9.9	8.1
Johnson, Amir	6'9"	FA	FA	PF	TOR	6.2	4.8
Thomas, Tyrus	6'9"	6,256,806	FA	PF	CHA	9.4	6.2
Blake, Steve	6'3"	FA	FA	PG	LAC	7.3
Hinrich, Kurt	6'3"	9,000,000	8,000,000	PG	CHI	10.9	3.5
Deng, Luol	6'9"	11,335,850	12,341,275	SF	CHI	17.6	7.3
Diaw, Boris	6'8"	9,000,000	9,000,000	SF	CHA	11.3	5.2
Warrick, Hakim	6'8"	FA	FA	SF	CHI	9.6	4.1
Gay, Rudy	6'8"	FA	FA	SG	MEM	19.6	5.9
Korver, Kyle	6'7"	FA	FA	SG	UTA	7.2	1.7
Miller, Mike	6'8"	FA	FA	SG	WAS	10.9	3.9
Salmons, John	6'6"	5,808,000	FA	SG	MIL	19.9	3.2

 

Proposed Offseason Moves:

1. Trade the Hunter TE for a player. If the player could always be moved at the Trade Deadline. Otherwise the TE will be lost in August.

 

2.Do not give up the 2011 First Round Pick. Unless the deal results in receiving a Plus 1 in the deal. For instance if you can get back two good young players in exchange for Nene and the 2011 1st then I’d do it. But not if you’re only getting the same number of players back (unless you’re talking about a Bosh) otherwise it is just wasting a 1st round pick the Nugs cannot afford to waste.

3.Strongly pursue trading Kmart’s & JR’s expiring contracts. Combined, that’s $22mm in expiring cap. Teams will want that kind of cap flexibility, either for the 2011 FA bonanza or to be able to make a deal at the trade deadline.

4.Strongly pursue trading Nene for value. Don’t get rid of Nene just to get rid of him; but if you can get real talent that would be a better fit on the Nugs than Nene is then go for it. Would Memphis rather have Nene over Marc Gasol.

5.Don’t be afraid of making a big move. Memphis isn’t likely going to keep Rudy Gay, who’s an all star talent. The Nugs have Lawson but Billups is getting older, don’t be afraid to make the move to get Gay and then you have a great young back court. Kaman, Gasol, Noah, Lee are legit upper tier players the Nugs could pursue in this market.

6.Don’t be Free Agent Cheap: You have the Trade Exception, the Mid Level Exception and expiring contracts. Not every free agent is going to get the huge money. The Nugs need depth, another shooter and at least one more legit big. Go hard after Korver, Miller, Haslem, Haywood and others. There is value the Nugs can get at a good price; if they just don’t play it cheap.

 

 

My 2010 Nuggets Dream (Meaning Not Realistic) Opening Night Roster

Starters:

Melo

Lee

Noah

Billups

Afflalo

 

Reserves:

Lawson

Korver

Hinrich

Haywood

Anderson

Petro

Graham