SB Nation User Blog: thehavenot

Brian Sabean: Coveting Mediocrity

thehavenot — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 05:36:33 -0000

I was waiting to post this for when Brian Sabean was not retained. However, it then occured to me that regardless of whether he was kept or let go it was a good time to try and sort out Brian Sabean's legacy here in San Francisco.

On the surface, Brian Sabean has been all over the map. He's been bold; he's been conservative. He's made big moves; he's been gunshy. He's had veteran lust; he's had a rotation with three pitchers 24 and under. With all of this bouncing around, it's kind of hard to put a finger on Brian Sabean's legacy.

But if you stare long enough, a pattern starts to emerge. Brian Sabean's legacy is mediocrity. It's there; right from the beginning.

His bold move to trade Matt Williams for Jeff Kent, Julian Tavarez and...uh...?Jim Poole? was the very definition of coveting mediocrity. Jeff Kent, a mediocre second/third baseman, and two relief pitchers for a slick fielding third baseman who had just had four straight 130 OPS+ seasons. Sure, Jeff Kent became a hall-of-fame caliber second baseman after his move to the bay. But are we really to believe that Sabean had a premonition that a mediocre player heading into his age 29 season would suddenly become a hall-of-famer?

Jeff Kent was the definition of mediocrity when Brain Sabean acquired him.

Look at any of the great players Sabean has had on his team and you will see the pattern emerge.

Barry Bonds - Gifted to Sabean. The biggest non-decisions ever were to re-sign Bonds when his contracts were up...until he decided not to bring him back.

Jason Schmidt - Maybe you can give him credit because of the organizational ability to find good pitching. But the most credit I can give is that he saw some untapped potential and went for it. But, just like Kent, he was a mediocrity and he was already into his prime (28) when the Giants acquired him.

Ellis Burks - The only real exception to the pattern, until you realize that to get Burks Sabean traded away his starting centerfielder (who had a .393 on base percentage). Even when he goes after something better than mediocrity, he makes it a mediocre move.

Robb Nen - Great closer. But only a closer. He never pitched more than 71 innings in a season.

Armando Benitez - I have to include him because Sabean signed him after his fantastic season with the Marlins. Even had he been that type of closer for the Giants, he still would have only been a closer.

Moises Alou - Great hitter. So-so fielder. 38 years old. Missed a bunch of playing time. It all adds up to mediocrity.

Who else? There's been nobody else Sabean has gone out and acquired that you can classify as great.

Just about everything else has been mediocrity from start to finish. J.T. Snow (I loved him) - mediocrity. Joe Carter - mediocrity. A.J. Pierzynski - mediocrity. Andres Galarraga (at the time Sabean acquired him) - mediocrity. Sidney Ponson (I know, he was having a very good season) - mediocrity. Rowand, Roberts, Renteria, Zito - mediocrity.

Yes, I'm painting with a broad brush. I'm putting a lot of categories into one broad one. But it's all illustrative. Brian Sabean's legacy: "For the price we'd be paying Vlad Guerrero, we can get all of this MEDIOCRITY."

I've gone back and forth on Sabean. Sometimes I see rays of light break through the clouds. I now realize that the clouds were always there and they will never go away. Brian Sabean's mediocrity hindered the post-Burks Giants and the only reason why his teams haven't been complete disasters from start to finish is because he has lucked into greatness (Bonds, Kent, Schmidt, Lincecum, Sandoval). It will only continue. So long as Brian Sabean is running the organization, we'll get mediocrity like Renteria, Molina, Rowand, Garko-on-the-bench and Winn unless somebody has such an unearthly rise that he can not be ignored.

Who knows how good the next GM will be. But one thing we do know is that Sabean's approach doesn't work. We have enough data now to support this, I believe. Let's end the era of mediocrity. Make a splash of your own Mr. Neukom.

An open letter to the baseball gods

thehavenot — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 20:36:07 -0000

Dear Baseball Gods,

I don't know why I'm writing this. I suppose it's because I've been so busy with the start of the school year that I haven't been able to post very much on the MCC and I can't keep up with the deluge of posts after...after...what happened last night.

So I am directing this plea to you.

I don't even really believe in you. But I'm getting closer. I suppose I went from being a baseball atheist to being a baseball agnostic. I used to role my eyes at any mention of you. I used to not believe in silly things like jinxes and the other superstitions in baseball. But I'm getting closer.

I don't know how many of you there are or what your purposes are. Is there a god of walks? And, if so, why haven't you smote Kevin Youkilis, yet, for blasphemy? How dare that mortal get the nickname "The Greek God of Walks?" Is it because Boston, for whatever reason, is your new favorite city?

Anyway, I just want to know why you guys hate San Francisco. People talk about the Cubs all of the time. And, sure, they haven't won the world series in a long time. And Cleveland has a longer streak than us, as well. But there isn't a team out there (and definitely not a city) that has had more baseball related pain than San Francisco.

Not only has it been 51 years without a championship in SF, but it's been 55 years since a championship for the Giants franchise. Long numbers to be sure. But consider the ways that we have failed to win a championship and suddenly it becomes clear; San Francisco is paying for something.

I can't for the life of me figure out what it would be, though. It couldn't just be subjective, could it? You guys don't like fog? You're from the midwest? One of you is a Dodger fan?

Whatever the reason, I submit to you that we have paid. We've paid ten fold. We haven't just paid with McCovey's line drive and the Cards' 87 comeback and the 93 season and 2000 and Game 6 and Cruz' Jr's dropped fly ball and Finley's grand slam.

We've also paid with the great teams of the 60's not quite being great enough in a time when only one team from each team went to the playoffs. We've paid with having to attend games at Candlestick Park. We've paid with the hypocritical treatment of Barry Bonds. We've paid with being singled out for our cheering of the best player in the game for the past generation. We've paid with Armando Benitez.

Don't think for a minute that you can distract us from how you've been treating us. We won't be satisfied with a no-hitter or a couple of cycles or a triple play or a cy-young season or an all-time home-run record; not when we keep getting royally screwed.

This last job might be the most outrageous of them all. You built up our hopes in a season that was meant to be about developing, only to crush them so monumentally. How could our feelings be crushed in a season that was meant to be about reaching .500? All while delaying the devlopment process of this current team. That's instensely and creatively cruel.

So I submit that we deserve a special end to this season. We've paid for it, many times over. We deserve to have a season like the 06 Cardinals or the 69 Mets. I'll forgive you if you crush our hopes now, only to have them reborn in a blazing glory during a spectacular and miraculous end of the season. I'll forgive you if we get to say "2009 Champion, San Francisco Giants"

Otherwise, I'm going to become a baseball Satanist.

Sincerely,

thehavenot

Why the A's should trade us Matt Holliday (or possibly why I am an idiot)

thehavenot — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 02:04:25 -0000

Dear Diary,

I've been thinking this one over for a little bit. I just knew there had to be something I was missing. It just shouldn't make sense. It's never gonna happen; because it shouldn't make sense. But it seems to. At least to me....

The A's should trade us Matt Holliday for Randy Winn and a couple of decent prospects (not the fantastic 4 or Neal or Barnes). This is absurd, right? The A's would never do this. What am I smoking? I should just delete this right now.

Except that I still can't get around the fact that it seems to make sense. Maybe I'm missing something...

So here's the reasoning.

Here is what Matt Holliday is worth to the A's: a half a season of production and 2 draft picks.

That half a season of production is pretty much worthless to the A's, who have no hope at making the post-season. They are not playing for this year. So that leaves the 2 draft picks as the only value left in Matt Holliday for the A's. If they are holding out for a package similar to what they gave up to get him, they aren't going to get anything but the draft picks.

This is where Randy Winn comes in. Who wouldn't swap Matt Holliday for Randy Winn? The defense is great. But he appears to be done as a hitter. I know he's always started off slow, but it does appear that age has caught up to him.

Randy is probably going to be a type A free agent, though. So the A's will get their two picks. That just leaves the half a season of production; something that is next to worthless to the A's but worth something to the Giants. How much is it worth? Not much, considering Holliday has been worth 1.9 WAR so far this season while Randy Winn has been worth 1.6 WAR.

Who is likelier to increase his production in the second half? Probably Holliday. This means that I would place his worth at two decent but not great prospects. (I am pretty terrible at gauging trade value so this might be too high or too low, what do you guys think?)

Why should the Giants do this trade? Because Holliday is likelier to be more valuable over the second half than Randy Winn is and they wouldn't be giving up too much.

Why should the A's do this trade? Because if the A's don't settle then they will only be getting two draft picks (Everybody's scared that Holliday's production was mainly Coors based, as they should be). But if they do this trade, they will have their two picks plus two prospects to show for him.

I'm sure there's some glaring hole in my thinking. I just couldn't find it. Perhaps you can.

Poll

Does this trade make a lick of sense?

It's worth it to the Giants but not the A's

102 votes

It's worth it to the A's but not the Giants

10 votes

It's worth it to neither the Giants nor the A's

25 votes

It's worth it for both the Giants and the A's

23 votes

160 votes | Poll has closed

Do something nice for your mother

thehavenot — Sun, 10 May 2009 08:46:15 -0000

Dear Diary,

We discuss a lot of baseball here. We also snark a lot; photoshops (I've seen quite a few in my time), lolcats, jokes, memes...if it's silly or goofy we do it. I join in just as much as anybody (I might not be as funny as most, but I have just as much enthusiasm as anybody). The status quo here is to try to be lolier than thou.

But this post is quite serious. It is also not about baseball.

Today is Mother's Day. And, even though we should acknowledge our mothers every day, it is important to have a day set aside just for them.

So do something nice for your mom. Even if you hate her. Seriously. I know that not every mother/child relationship is great. But even if the only thing your mother ever did for you was to bring you into this world, that's still something. Regardless of how little talent it takes for conception and regardless of whether it was responsible or not to conceive you, she gave you a chance. And that is a lot.

I know some mothers don't have any relationship at all with their child. I may not be a mother, but I am a parent. And I know the unique attachment that a parent and a child has with each other. Even if it lies dormant, it is there within your mother. It is the single most important aspect of our humanity. So do something nice for her, if you can. There is no guarenteed fairy tale ending. But it will make the world a better place.

Happy mother's day to all you MCC moms (wait, nevermind. There are no women on the internet).

P.S. It is two in the morning and this post might not be as eloquent as Mother's Day deserves. I just wanted to express my belief in the importance of this day (or, at least, the concept behind the day).

It is time to pass judgments, so I decree

thehavenot — Sun, 03 May 2009 06:16:05 -0000

Dear Diary,

The temptation has been there pretty much since Spring Training. But I have kept it at bay by repeating the mantra "It's too early" over and over again. Small sample sizes and spring training performances are no reason to get too high or too low.

But this Giants team doesn't evoke the melancholy that last year's team did. I have quite a love/hate relationship with this team. Sure, there are parts of this Giants team that evoke a "meh." But, mostly this is a strong emotion relationship.

Take Aaron Rowand, for instance. I really hate this guy. His stupid batting stance. His throws to the infield (though, they haven't been egregious so far this year). His playing time (whenever I grind my teeth at Schierholtz lack of playing time, the tooth dust falls on the floor and spells Rowand's name). His contract. His lack of production.

All things I hate.

Yet, there's also Timmy, Matt, Dirty, the Big Unit, Sandeeval (for some reason I've taken to saying his name like a little kid might), Ishikawa (yes, I love him. And I'm not ashamed), Molina, FLew, Winn and Schierholtz.

Well, it's May and I can not keep the temptation at bay any longer. This fanpost might look ridiculous very soon. It might even look ridiculous now. But I must pass judgment. Both good and bad. So here goes:

THE GOOD

Sandoval: We were all thinking it. But he proved us all wrong. He's a hitter. There's nothing more to say. Oh, except maybe "passable defense!"

Lewis: Yeah, the strikeouts. Yeah, the defensive blunders. But this guy has arrived. If he can figure out a couple of things (e.g. how to keep his discipline from leading to excessive strikeouts) then this guy might just have himself a breakout.

Affeldt: Affeldt this might happen. He's pretty darn good. And the puns!

Wilson: The blow up and the 3-2 counts aside, he's looked good this year. I say he still continues to prove delorean wrong.

Barry Zito?: Somebody told us he was back. His stuff is looking better. He's actually pitching well right now. Will it continue? I expect no. I hope yes.

THE BAD

Aaron Rowand: I touched on this guy before. Remember that month last year? I really wish that Rowand showed up more often. He's a frickin' offensive drain. That's not good coming from the highest paid offensive player.

Burriss: I think Grant covered him just fine.

Bochy: Everything relevant has been said about him ten times over.

Howry: He hasn't exactly looked great so far. And he keeps going out there almost every game. I'm not expecting good things from him.

THE REALLY GOOD

Lincecum: Yeah

Cain: I've said this a couple of times already. His secondary stuff looks better than I've ever seen it. He still needs to work on his control (it haunted him in his game today). But I think it's time we got real and admit that Cain might be it.

Johnson: Besides the outing before last, he's looked really good. The only question for me is his durability.

Sanchez: I'm one of the biggest fanboys around, so you know he has to be in this category.

THE UNDECIDED

Renteria: He's looked bad. He's looked good. Which is the true Renteria? Hell if I know.

Winn: He's looked bad, mostly. Except in the field. Classy, there. I don't know if age has caught with him or if it is just a slow start. I am reserving judgment for now.

Ishikawa: This guy confuses me.

THE VERDICT

That's a lot of sentence fragments. Also, more positive than negative! I think the Giants could actually be above .500 this year. I really do. I could see the starting pitching continue to dominate all year. I think we've seen what the Giants offense will do. And it's been enough.

After that horrible six game stretch, the Giants have gone 9-4. And two of those games, the Giants really should have won. I think 85 wins isn't out of the question. There are still a lot of things that have to go right. But I am much more optimistic about this season than I have been for a Giants season in four years.

So disappointed

thehavenot — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:01:41 -0000

So disappointed

I was hoping this was going to be about my adopted Giant.

Please forgive me in advance for this

thehavenot — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 02:28:49 -0000

Dear Diary,

It is now officially Spring. The equinox has come and gone. The clocks have been changed. I am on Spring break for the next two weeks. Blossoms are on the trees. The weather is getting warmer. Spring training is here.

And I am itching for baseball. I am ready for games that mean something.

This year has been kind of tough. Being a first year teacher is tough. The school district I am in is pretty messed up. The kids, the administrations, the district office, all of it. And then there is the uncertainty of where I will be working next school year.

And so, with two weeks off I am ready to watch Lincecum and Cain and Sanchez throw again. I am ready to see Randy Johnson in a Giants uniform. I am ready to see Sandoval hit again. I am ready to see Ishikawa and Bowker and Frandsen and Lewis try and make something of themselves. I am ready to see Rowand miss the cutoff man. I am ready to bitch about Bochy's stupid veteran fetish. I am ready to marvel at Molina's incredible sloth-like baserunning.

I am ready for the stream of non-sense of gameday threads.

But I will not get real baseball during spring break. For some stupid reason, the baseball season does not start until April 5th this year. The Giants do not play until April freakin' 7th (or the second day back from Spring break). Whose genius idea was this? The playoffs already darn near go into November as it is. Now they are probably going into mid-November.

I feel I am pretty safe to say that I speak for pretty much all baseball fans when I say "We don't need to wait an extra freakin' week for baseball. Go back to the way it was. Baseball is supposed to start at the beginning of April. Whoever was responsible for this (probably Bud), you have just made all of our lives that much bleaker for one more week. Thanks."*

* The preceding rant was purely self-indulgent and meaningless. Of course, if the season starts a week later, it just means that the season will go a week longer at the end. So this is simply thehavenot expressing his bitter, bitter disappointment at not being able to participate in gameday threads and watching real baseball for a whole extra week, at which point he will be working again.

What if's and hypothetical (from the past)

thehavenot — Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:51:09 -0000

Dear Diary,

16 games left in the 2008 season and what we have to look forward to is watching Sandoval, Lincecum, Ishikawa and a couple others give us individual performances. When watching a bad baseball team (the 08 Giants are even bad at getting good draft position), it sometimes helps to escape into non-reality. We often do that here so I decided that it would be kind of interesting to look back at some of the hypotheticals from this past season that ended up not coming about.

Every move that was either rumored or wished for that I can remember will be examined. I have no idea if I am remembering all of them but that's why there are other people in the world; to do my dirty work.

Pat Burrell

Was the rumor really Benitez for Burrell? Could you have imagined that going down? I realize that it was last season that this one was from, but still. That trade would have been an unbelievable steal. This makes me think it was never really realistic.

Also, while Burrell>>>>>>>>>>>>Benitez, it's worth noting that Burrell is only hitting 252/369/509 with a 124 OPS+ in a hitter's paradise. It's still way better than what we put out there at first all year, but it's nothing great. Also, Ishikawa would have gotten even less time here in September.

Carlos Gomez

Could you imagine the gnashing of teeth and wailing that would have gone on here in May and June had Sabean traded Sanchez for this guy like it was rumored? Yikes. Nothing like trading someone who finally showed signs of putting it all together for somebody with a 72 OPS+.

Lastings Milledge

Regardless of how he's done this year, I still wish the Giants had been able to get him. I don't really know what it would have taken to get him but if it was comparable to what the Mets gave up, it probably would have been okay with me. He's still just 23 with a bunch of talent. I wouldn't have traded Sanchez for him but several lesser pieces would have been fine with me. Probably not with the Mets, though. So the point is moot.

Elijah Dukes

I doubt the Giants were ever interested. I didn't even really hear any rumors about this guy. But he was somebody who I thought the Giants should go after. He's kind of a creep and all but he was had very cheaply and in his first 417 at bats in the majors he's put up 237/353/451 with 21 homers and 69 walks. And he's been getting better lately. I would take him on our team in a second.

Nick Johnson

He got hurt again. He's the Rich Harden of first basemen. Of course, in his short time playing he put up a .415 OBP...

Wily Mo Pena

I feel ashamed that I thought the Giants should try and get this guy...

Alex Rodriguez

Dude's putting up 308/388/598 line with a 158 OPS+!!!! At a position of need for our team!!!!! I can't believe nobody around here said we should try and get this guy! We really dropped the ball on that one.

The Prediction Thread

thehavenot — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 01:45:05 -0000

Dear Diary,

Giants' baseball hasn't been that fun, lately. I mean, I still really like baseball and I still really like the Giants, but I don't like Giants' baseball. Oh there's some aspects of Giants' baseball that I like. Lincecum, for some reason. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez too. Wilson, Hinshaw, Romo and Matos. Bowker and Lewis (even with Bowker's horrible July). Those guys represent various shades of flash that briefly illuminate the darkness.

But overall, it hasn't been fun. We haven't had cable for a while and usually I would be going crazy if I missed this many games. I love watching baseball. But this season, I have been able to handle it. I think it has to do with the enormous suck of the Giants.

So, I just thought it'd be nice to escape into alternate realities that will likely never come to pass.

Predictions are fun. It is fun to go back and see the ridiculousness that is flung around. Good examples of this are the community projections of various Giants' players. So here, any and all predictions are fair game.

How many losses for the Giants in '08? '09? '37? Will Barry ever play again? When will Bumgarner be up? How many Cy Youngs for Lincecum?

They don't even have to be baseball related. Obama or McCain? Third party darkhorse? Who wins the gold in fencing? How many mutations for the Olympic rowing teams from Beijing waters?

Since I started this thread, I should give some predictions myself. So.

-Bowker will hit more than 20 homeruns this year (risky, this one, what with his recent struggles)

-Freddie Lewis will never hit more than 20 homeruns (not so risky, this one)

-Freddie Lewis will have one season with an OBP over .400

-Bumgarner up in 2010, which is the same year the Giants finally have a good manager (I'm not up to predicting who)

-The next good Giants team in 2010.

-Villalona up in 2012.

-Fairley never makes it to the majors :(

-The Red Sox win the world series again this year :(

-The Rays win the world series next year

-Giants get the 3rd pick in the draft next year.

-Sandoval becomes a regular next year and wins rookie of the year (my bold pick)

-Molina ends up falling off a cliff, production-wise, and gets a bad attitude to boot, putting him squarely in Sabean's dog-house. This leads to a dump-him move ala Livan, Benitez, Morris, Pierzynski, etc.

-Matt Cain wins more than 10 games next year.

-Sanchez gets roughed up the next couple of starts and the Giants finally shut him down for the year.

-Correia finishes the year making gradual strides and then has a good year next year.

-Henry Sosa has a healthy season next year.

-thehavenot makes way too many predictions and most people don't bother to try and scroll down to the reply buttons, so no one replies.

So those are mine. They are all mostly serious. I probably could come up with some more. But I should save some for later. Plus less reading of mine means more predicting by you! Let's see what your inner eight-ball says about the future!

The Fate of Humanity Hangs in the Balance!

thehavenot — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 21:28:34 -0000

The Fate of Humanity Hangs in the Balance!

Guido (Charleston, WV): Will the Dodgers be dumb enough to trade Kemp? Hu? LaRoche?
Joe Sheehan: I think this is a battle for the soul of the franchise. If Ned Colletti makes another Dioner Navarro deal with one of those guys, I think the Dodgers lose Logan White within the year, and it gets very dark and cold up from Sunset Blvd. If Colletti doesn't do that, perhaps White gets elevated into the GM's chair, and the Dodgers become the Red Sox West in three years.

So what will it be? Doom and gloom for the Dodgers (hopefully via a LaRoche trade to the Giants)? or Red Sox west? Come on Ned, don't let us down!