'08 Payroll

throughhyperspace — Tue, 07 Aug 2007 23:49:50 -0000

The comments in the Carlos Quentin and Cubs Odds thread regarding some potential FA additions and available "cap" room prompted me to repost a comment/amateur analysis of mine from a few weeks ago..

Source: Cot's Contracts

Off the books:
Brady Clark - 2.1mil
Koskie - 2 mil (Blue Jays responsible for other 3.75)
Cordero - 5.4 mil (Unfortunately, he's probably unaffordable)
Graffanino - 3.2 mil (If Rickie doesn't prove he's healthy/productive, do you consider resigning him? Give the job to Rottino? Find another Graf-type?)
Dressens - Kansas City is paying his salary this year. So, $0. (unless that was voided by his trade from the Dodgers? Now being DFA'd, I'm not sure how to calculate it.. eh, I'll leave it zero)
Jenkins - 7 mil
Linebrink - 1.75 mil

Total - 21.45 mil

Increases:
Sheets - 1 mil
Suppan - 2 mil
Hall - 1.8 mil
Turnbow - 1 mil
Jenkins and Koskie buyouts - .75 mil

Total - 6.55 mil

Arbitration notes:

Estrada and Mench are going into their last year of arbitration, they averaged a 1.5 mil raise each this year.

Cappy and Vargas will be in the same position Estrada and Mench were this year. 2(1.5 mil)?

Weeks' draft day contract runs out. He made 1.32 mil this year. Is he a super-2 at 2.131 yrs service time? If so, I'd imagine at least a 2 mil increase. (Now that got sent down, probably not a super-2)

Hardy hits arbitration for the first time. Made .4 mil in '07. 3 mil in 08?

Bush hits arbitration for the first time. Cappy got a 3 mil raise when he did so this year.

Wise and Shouse are due raises.

While Aquino and Spurling are arby eligible, I'm not counting them. Who knows if they'll still be here.

Guesstimate - Approx 12 mil? I'll have to study some comps for that to be taken without a block of salt. But it may be low..

If you drop Mench, Vargas and Wise, as was suggested elsewhere, figure a savings of about 10 mil(6.9 current + 3? arby raises). I'm not sold on that, however, as I like the depth they provide. If Melvin does trade them, I'd guess similar players with similar salaries to replace them.

The following year Hart and Fielder hit arbitration. Obviously some huge increases there.

Miller - With Rivera's numbers this year, I would like to keep him. At what price? I don't know.

Free agent signings?

As for the revenue from Miller Park, last year the payroll was about 58 mil and Attanasio said they made about 2 mil, if memory serves. Now its at 71 mil. All the increased revenue from tickets, merchandise, parking and other revenue streams will probably not make up much more than that difference. But with our new owner's business acumen, hopefully we can keep the payroll at or above 70m most years without losing money. When they can get a new TV contract, maybe more. I think thats quite a few years away though. However, I can't seem to find for how long the Selig's mortgaged the TV future.

In summary, between contract increases and arbitration, my very rough estimate leaves us about +3 mil w/o any free agents. Not exactly the greatest breathing room to sign an Adam Dunn type while preparing to lock up some of our young studs: Sheets, JJ and Rickie then Hart and Fielder followed by CV with Braun and Gallardo shortly afterwards. Thankfully they are spaced apart over 4-5 years, but it still seems like only 3 or 4 of them will be affordable long term.

And one last thing: If this is the comment you were thinking of Jeff, I am greatly humbled that a post of mine could be mistaken for TheJay. :)

SB Nation User Blog: throughhyperspace

'08 Payroll