SB Nation User Blog: timlacy

Mental Help: More Discussion on Biancalana

timlacy — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 15:27:05 -0000

I realize that someone created a fanshot on this, but let's go for a longer discussion here---realizing that Royals Review is dominated, in my opinion, by folks who prefer fact-based statistical predictors of future performance.

Should we not take advantage of Biancalana's (latent?) sentiment for KC and bring him on board, ala what we should've done with Bill James when he originally offered his services to the team? If Biancalana can improve former (head) cases like Davies, maybe he can work with AA and AAA folks? Perhaps he could improve frustrating talents like TPJr., Shealy, and Buck? What about Guillen?! Never mind. Nix that. I doubt Freud, William James, Pavlov, Skinner, and Gestalt combined into one superhero psychologist could figure out Guillen.)

Still, why not cover all our bases and bring a legit performance enhancer on staff (PES)? This seems like the perfect move for a franchise trying to maximize existing resources---i.e. invest once more to improve the group rather than trying to repopulate the group with ever-more expensive players. It would be worth 1 million, I think, to bring on Biancalana for one season. - TL

Match Made In ______?

timlacy — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 19:12:19 -0000

So the Mariners released Richie Sexson. The Royals could maybe possibly use a first baseman with power. Boy could they ever. Sexson ~had~ power. Check out his history:

SEASON	TEAM	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1997	Cle	5	11	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.273	.273	.273	.546
1998	Cle	49	174	28	54	14	1	11	35	6	42	1	1	.310	.344	.592	.936
1999	Cle	134	479	72	122	17	7	31	116	34	117	3	3	.255	.305	.514	.819
2000	Cle	91	324	45	83	16	1	16	44	25	96	1	0	.256	.315	.460	.775
2000	Mil	57	213	44	63	14	0	14	47	34	63	1	0	.296	.398	.559	.957
2001	Mil	158	598	94	162	24	3	45	125	60	178	2	4	.271	.342	.547	.889
2002	Mil	157	570	86	159	37	2	29	102	70	136	0	0	.279	.363	.504	.867
2003	Mil	162	606	97	165	28	2	45	124	98	151	2	3	.272	.379	.548	.927
2004	Ari	23	90	20	21	4	0	9	23	14	21	0	0	.233	.337	.578	.915
2005	Sea	156	558	99	147	36	1	39	121	89	167	1	1	.263	.369	.541	.910
2006	Sea	158	591	75	156	40	0	34	107	64	154	1	1	.264	.338	.504	.842

Could Sexson rediscover his power under the tutelage of Mike Barnett? Could he at least be a stopgap---a worthy experiment? Would a reunion with Guillen help---Guillen (hah!)? Would Sexson help with the team's leadership void? Tune in below for answers. PS/Update - Every comment should begin with Heaven, Hell, or Purgatory. - TL

Soria: Starter Or Closer?---A Request

timlacy — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:43:33 -0000

This debate has been ongoing in fanposts and gamethreads. Regular readers will know that I prefer he remain in the closing role for:

(a) As long as we have a reliable group of starters (admittedly a game-to-game sensibility);

(b) As long as Senor Soria wants to close;

Many here at RR who care about this disagree with me. With that in mind, I wrote the following this morning:

---------------------------------------------------

Dear Joe [Posnanski],

I'm having too many debates with the Royals Review blog crowd about
Soria as a starter versus closer. If you wrote a column on this, as a
follow-up to your last KC Star column (or at least the last one
appearing at the online Star), I expect you'd get hundreds of
comments. To help fuel the fire, or settle the debate, you should
enlist your sometime buddy Bill James to add some extra baseball
gravitas to the column. I ask you to do this because I want your
column to be my reference point (meaning, last word) on the issue
until the Royals switch Soria to the starting role.

Help!

Sincerely,

Tim Lacy
Chicago, IL

--------------------------------------------

To me the key to this request is Bill James---God to the baseball stats/sabermetrics crowd. If we all write Joe, asking him to do this, perhaps he'll at least make it a long blog post. - TL

Rowdy Hardy Update

timlacy — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:45:40 -0000

See here for more. The post is two weeks old (June 16), but scroll down to this:

------------------------------

Rowdy Hardy (Royals) deserves a lot of credit. After dominating the Carolina League last year, the 25-year-old lefthander was beaten around in his first trip around the Texas League to the tune of a 0-2, 6.23 record in five April starts. But since mid-May, the lefty who has two speeds, slow and slower, has started to get a handle on Double-A.

Hardy allowed six hits in seven scoreless innings last night. He’s now allowed one run in his last 13 innings and is 3-2, 2.76 in his past seven starts.

------------------------------

Well, it's nice to see that Hardy is coming around. If his name were Hochevar, he'd have been promoted to AAA already. But since he's Hardy of the 75 mph fastball (exaggeration), he'll have to show himself for a whole year at AA. I hope he does!

There was an RR post the other day about knuckleballers. Maybe we need to think of Hardy as a modified to knuckler so that people will stop knocking the guy for not being the next Saberhagen--err Greinke. - TL

Bad Article On The Royals By Jason Whitlock

timlacy — Mon, 02 Jun 2008 14:31:13 -0000

So I've avoided posting during the losing streak. I didn't want to add to the pessimism. Now that the team is on a teeny little roll, I'll hazard a post.

I've been singing of the praises of Jason Whitlock for years---both to him (in many unsolicited e-mails) and others. I love his coverage of the Chiefs: nobody does it better. But this piece on the Royals and their shortstop situation is not a worthy addition to his oeuvre.

In Whitlock's defense, he was covering for Joe Posnanski in trying keep up with losing-streak commentary. But there's not a lot of baseball intellect in the piece. The thesis of the article seems to be that every organization must have a shortstop that functions as a kind of heart-of-the-team guy. They all must be like Derek Jeter, to use a recent example.

This is a flawed argument. I love Tony Pena, Jr.'s defense. I don't know his "zone rating," but I can imagine it to be pretty swell. But we don't need Tony to be a team leader---neither in the locker room nor even (other than calling off others) on the field.

To counter Whitlock's argument, I'll start with a mere nuts-and-bolts analysis. There comes a point when one's plate deficiencies override defense. If I'm thinking through my baseball history correctly, a defensive-oriented shortstop like Pena has to be capable of at least a .220-.250 average (without power) to justify his existence on the field and in the lineup. Pena is .070 below even this minimal standard.

But this only covers the numbers. Citing shortstop as a premier position for exhibiting the heart and soul of the team has no strong basis in baseball history. Who can remember the shortstop from the 2003 Marlins? Who was the shortstop for the 1985 Royals (this isn't a fair question on this site, but it makes a point)? Who was the Phillies shortstop in 1980? Who was the Yankees shortstop on those magnificent late 1970s teams?

Of course I'm aware of the examples cited in the piece, but there's no reason to rationally argue that problems at shortstop this year are ~the~ problem with this Royals team. The biggest flaw with the team---one that can't really be substantially corrected midseason---is its month-of-May hitting slump. Most of the lineup (excepting Gordon and Guillen---the Killer Gs?!) went in the tank. Period.

So Jason, I love you, but incorporate some more of your baseball intellect into your next piece on our beloved Royals. They had a bad May, but let's not add to their public relations problems with poor media coverage. - TL

Still Confident? I Am, And Here's Why

timlacy — Tue, 20 May 2008 15:17:31 -0000

From today's Kansas City Star :

“Dayton Moore has done a great job of building [the team] and designing it,” [George] Brett said. “You’ve got a good rotation with young guys who can come out and beat you any given night.

“And I really think another major piece has been Joakim Soria. He may have some off nights every now and then, but he gives the team a sense of confidence it hasn’t had for a long time.”

Shoring up the closer’s role and signing Soria to a long-term deal was key, Brett said.

“There is nothing more devastating to a baseball team than a blown save,” Brett said. “You’re bound to get some. When you have a 3-2 lead and you think you have it wrapped up and the next thing you know, you lose 4-3, it’s devastating.

“With Soria, we haven’t had that hardly at all. I remember talking to (manager) Mike Scioscia of the Angels last year, and he was so impressed when we had Zack Greinke and Soria in the back of the bullpen. He’d say, ‘You guys turn games into seven-inning games.’ ”

It was just yesterday (or the day before) that I argued that Soria shouldn't go to the rotation. I cited the calamity that is a blown save, and the positive results of a shortened sense of opportunity for the opposing team.

It's nice to see George backing me up. - TL

Still Worried About Plate Discipline?

timlacy — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 11:43:00 -0000

We took six walks in last night's second game against the Yankees: 3 by Teahan, 1 by Grudzielanek, 1 by Butler, and 1 by Gordon. I recall Teahan having a few games like this last year.

We struck out 9 times. Only Grudzielanek and Butler didn't. The former doesn't surprise me, being a contact machine. But the latter does---Butler having been so hot. Gordon struck out twice. I didn't get to see the game, so I don't know how many of the Royals batter strikeouts were called. I can't, therefore, calculate my idea for a plate discipline statistic (called strikeouts plus walks).

But the Royals made Yankees pitchers throw 137 pitches in the game. That 137 divided by 36 plate appearances is 3.81 pitches per plate appearance. That's quite healthy.

Sure, as with game 1, the conditions weren't great. But the Greinke, Yabuta, Gobble triumvirate threw 129 pitches, giving up 3 walks and 3 strikeouts in 34 Yankees plate appearances. That means the Yankees also took about 3.8 pitches per at bat. So, no advantage, but we were at least on par with the vaunted Yanks---and we were more efficient when we swung.

I'd say last night was ~a~ prime example of Hillman's preaching "selective aggression." Let's keep it up! - TL

Walks, Today's Game, And Strategy

timlacy — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 00:40:00 -0000

In light of this, I would like our very own moderator, Will McDonald, to issue a public apology. ;)

But seriously, the ~five~ walks earned in today's game ought to assuage the concerns of all posters here about the Royals' ability to take pitches. Words like "hackfest" and "hacksticity" need not apply. Save 'em for your Reds postings.

Per my comment on the now infamous "117" post, the Royals are going to have to swing for stretches to be a team that'll get balls out of the strike zone. I think I recall the phrase "selective aggression" being used in ST by Mr. Hillman. - TL

Kudos To Tomko

timlacy — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 23:00:55 -0000

In ST threads, I was a persistent skeptic of placing Tomko in the rotation. His brief relief appearance last week didn't make me feel any better. But here's today's line:

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	PC-ST	ERA
B Tomko (W, 1-0)	5.0	6	0	0	1	3	0	92-58	1.29

All I can say is this: I'm happy to be wrong. The ESPN summary noted that Tomko started (no pun intended) strong like this last year and then faded. Let's hope history doesn't repeat itself---or else I'll renew my calls for Hochevar. - TL

Cubs sign Bonds!

timlacy — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 15:29:50 -0000

...for DH duties. ;) ... This one's for all you chumps who couldn't handle the April Fool's post on Roberts. - TL