SB Nation User Blog: tlozwarlock

Observations from Section 326: ATL vs NO part two

tlozwarlock — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:19:04 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Coach Smith: 1 / Headset: 0. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

What Had Me Screaming:

The Falcons, despite mostly reduced to second stringers, somehow managed to give the Saints a tough game.
Eric Weems is a return master.
The Falcons fans. Despite being nearly outnumbered (one Who Dat-er remarked "It's like being at home!" when counting all the black and gold jerseys), Falcons fans were on their feet, cheering and yelling on every single play. We showed the Saints fanbase just how loud we could get. Very proud of my fellow fans.
Brent Grimes, who apparently is no longer allowed to actually, you know, defend a pass. He had an amazing diving pass deflection that was, after the whistle was blown, penalized for interference. To add to that, he had an amazing diving interception near the 5 yard line that was, once again, called back due to interference. Funny how Grimes was (legally) bumping and going with his man the entire time, the ball thrown perfectly in his direction, and when he seals the INT, it turns into a flag. Hmm...
For all intents and purposes, Matt Bryant > Jason Elam, for now.

What Made Me Boo:

The lack of a pass rush. Brees had time to give himself a manicure back there. And Abe continued to drop back into coverage. What?
Our redzone offense. Three times in the first half we were in the red zone. And three times, we had to settle for field goals. That's not how you beat the #1 team in the NFL.
The playcalling near the end of the game. You run a double reverse on 1 and 10 with 4 minutes to go when the rush is getting momentum? Guess what happened! 2nd and 22 for pete's sake. Then what? INTERCEPTION! Woo! Ugh.
The refs. My God, when even the Saints fans are shaking their heads at calls against the Falcons,something is wrong.

What Ya’ll Seem to be Forgetting:

We still have a winning season to get after. And right now, that's all I care about. We will win these next three games. We will.

Some Pep for your Step

Daniel Cox has some good perspective on our postseason chances:

#falcons playoffs simplified. if dallas can continue its december collapse and giants lose two of last three and atl wins out, they're in. - @danielcox

tlozwarlock's Fan of the Game

The awesome lady next to me who gave me her ticket for the Buffalo game. Now I can bring two people to experience the Birds' destroying of the Bills.

Presenting the Falcon Nation Charity Organization

tlozwarlock — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:32:34 -0000

Remember when all those kooky Falcons fans decided to help pay Mike Smith's fine for the "sideline brawl" that occurred during the Redskins Dome game? Well, the effort raised a hefty $3503.63 and inspired ring leader Hal Moore to start the Falcon Nation Charity Organization.

Here's the info on the new endeavor:

The Falcon Nation is a nonprofit organization whose purpose is to organize charity and fundraising events to support Falcons related charities. We will be organizing the fan base to work directly with players, coaches, cheerleaders, officials, and the Blank Foundation to raise support and funds for their charities. There will be opportunities throughout the year to show your support for our team and have the opportunity to work alongside folks from the Falcons organization.

From what we are told, there is not another organization like this in pro sports in America. Everyone from the Falcons and the Blank Foundation are extremely excited about what we as fans will be able to do, and they are doing all they can to help this organization get off the ground.

You've all heard about the Falcons' charitable endeavors. Now we as fans are going to be making a difference, too.

This Saturday at 7:00pm during Falcons Face to Face on 11Alive news, Falcon Nation will be presenting the Atlanta Falcons Youth Foundation with the donations from the Smith Charity drive. If you're not in Atlanta, video of the event will be available on the charity's official website shortly afterword.

Jamal Anderson's Taking Your Questions

tlozwarlock — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 20:00:04 -0000

via tclakin.files.wordpress.com

I'll be interviewing the Falcoholic's own Greatest Falcons RB of All Time, Mr. Jamal Anderson, very soon. I figured I'd ask you guys for some questions. Drop your questions in the comments and I'll grab the best ones and ask away!

A Look Ahead: Get Your Falcohol

tlozwarlock — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:36:10 -0000

Preface:

Now that I've set the tone...

New Orleans Saints 2: The Season Definer
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 13th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game

Importance: Serious Business.

Notes: See what 'Bama did to ol' Timmy Tebow last Saturday? Yeah, that's gonna be Brees this weekend. GET READY TO CRY, DREW.

The Falcons win if: ... there ain't no if's anymore. Falcons have been to the bottom of the barrel and they're going to be blasting their way out.

The Saints win if: ... no ifs here, either. Saints have about as much chance to win as I've got to win Miss America.

Final Score: Eleventybillion to two. Yeah, John Parker gives them a mercy safety by sitting down in the endzone willfully at the end of the game. Just to let them leave with an teensy bit of pride.

New York Jets
Where: Giants Stadium
When: Sunday December 20th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because New Yorkers couldn’t get enough of us the first go round against the Giants.

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Sanchez, manchez. Matty Ice turns the field into an ice rink and plays hockey the only way he knows how: forechecking the defense.

The Falcons win if: ... What did I say about "if" 's? There ain't none. It's all gravy, baby.

The Jets win if: ... Peyton Manning, in a maniacal fit of fail, dresses up like Sanchez for his latest Direct TV commercial.

Score prediction: 255 to 17. The stadium is so old it only counts up to the max hexadecimal numerical value, ala old school Madden. Falcons' TDs stop scoring points midway through second quarter.

Buffalo Bills
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 27th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: CBS
Why: The Bills aren't looking too good. Uh oh...

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: If you think for one minute that the Falcons' forgot your Christmas present, think again. It's just a little late comin'.

Prediction: Falcons win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers With a Vengeance
Where: Raymond James Stadium
When: Sunday January 3rd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Tampa rolls over on this one, desperately wanting to have been only the second team to ever go 1-15

Prediction: Falcons win

Current season record: PUSH

Current season prediction: WIN

tlozwarlock's Current Prediction record: WIN

...

I drank up. What's your excuse?

Admonitions from Section 326

tlozwarlock — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:10:24 -0000

Ok, gang. You're going to get a side of me you may not enjoy, a side many of you will not agree with. That's fine. You have your opinions, I have mine. And now I'm going to share them. Dave may have minced his words, but I will not. I'm in no mood to coddle.

Yesterday, I took my father, the man I respect most in this world, to see his first professional football game. He's always been a college football guy and yesterday, I made it my mission to convert him to Falcoholism. Through thick and thin, best and worst, my father has stuck by his Alabama Crimson Tide all his life. I've done the same for my Falcons since 1995. I convinced him, regardless of the storylines attached to the Eagles/Falcons game, that the fans around us were going to root on our Falcons and stick by them through the good and bad.

Yesterday, I left the Dome early for the first time ever. I have never turned off the TV or left my seat ever before yesterday afternoon. No, I did not leave when the Falcons were down two scores. No, I did not leave when Redman threw a pick-six. No, I took my father by the arm and left when the entirety of the remaining Dome crowd cheered on the opposing team when it went up thirty-four to zero. The "fans" in the stands were cheering on the wrong uniforms. Fans I had long since come to respect and pal around with. Fans I thought who had shelved their "love" of a certain player for their love of the team.

I was dead wrong and I am utterly and completely angered, disgusted, and saddened by that fact. I have lost some faith in the Falcons' fanbase. There is nothing more disheartening than hearing and watching red and black clad individuals cheer on the enemy. I don't care if Tommy Nobis and Steve Bartkowski unretired and suited up for the Saints or Eagles or whomever. If they aren't in a Falcons uniform, they are the enemy and should be treated as such.

I am more disappointed in my fellow "fans" than I am the team's "performance" yesterday and that is unbelievable. I'm getting off my soapbox now. Just know this: because of the "fans'" behavior, I highly doubt my dad will even watch another NFL game the rest of his life.

From the bottom of my broken heart, thanks.

Remaining Opponents' Records: Crunchin' the Numbers

tlozwarlock — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 02:27:38 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

It'll be up to the backups, so let's hope they only get better from here. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

I did a little soul searching and some number crunching and found out that the Falcons are actually 8th in the NFL in total points/points per game scored. Not a bad little stat. We also happen to be a dismal 19th in points allowed. That humbles it a bit, but so far (at least at home), we've been able to outscore our opponents by at least a field goal in each win. It's also become apparent to me that we've managed to win each our of home games by a margin of nine points or better. Not too shabby. On the road, that changes a bit, where we're a maddening field-goal or less under our opponents. Yes, you read right, in our road games, we usually lost by an average of three points. Puts that kicker change into perspective, huh? Purely a football decision? Bingo.

So here's what I did: I took our opponents' average Points Scored, subtracted their average Points Allowed, and compared that differential to the Falcons positive 3 differential between the same two stats. Here's the rundown:

Opp	Diff
Eagles	6
Saints	17
Jets	3
Bills	-5
Bucs	-12

With that in mind, I then took a look at the Falcons Road and Home PS/g and PA/g to adjust the Falcons' differential. For the record, I didn't do this for the other teams (I don't have that much free time). Here are those numbers:

Road PS/g	26
Road PA/g	28

Which, before rounding, gives us a -2.8 points on the road, so -3 it is.

Home PS/g	24
Home PA/g	15

That gives us a +9, give or take a tenth or two, at the Dome.

Next, I took a look at how our backups performed in the last game after Ryan, Turner, et al left the game. The team ended with a +3 differential. I'll use that as a negative to adjust for the fact that we'll have backups in key positions.

Here's everything put together:

Opp	Where	Falc Diff	Backup Diff	Home or Away Diff	Opp Diff	Outcome
Eagles	Home	+3	-3	+9	6	3
Saints	Home	+3	-3	+9	17	-8
Jets	Away	+3	-3	-3	3	-6
Bills	Home	+3	-3	+9	-5	14
Bucs	Away	+3	-3	-3	-12	9

Yes, these are merely numbers and do not factor in any intangibles, but it still appears as if I was a bit hasty calling for a 7-9 season. With a 3-2 record in the remaining five games, we'll end the season out of the playoffs but grasping that ever important first-ever back-to-back winning seasons. And really, that's all I'm asking for at this point.

A Look Ahead and the Bleak Prospect

tlozwarlock — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 20:42:16 -0000

We're facing the Philadelphia Eagles minus our wunderkind QB. There's not much else to say, really.

Philadelphia Eagles
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 6th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because Eagles and Falcons are natural enemies.

Importance: Serious Business. Duh, again

Notes: No Matt Ryan. Perhaps no Turner. Perhaps no Baker or Dahl either. What did we do to deserve this?

The Falcons win if: Matt Ryan's turf toe mysteriously heals the morning of game day.

The Eagles win if: they realize we've secretly replaced our secondary with Oompa Loompas.

Prediction: Falcons lose.

New Orleans Saints 2: The Season Definer
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 13th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game

Importance: Serious Business.

Notes: If we win this, I will do a backflip off a moving truck and upload it onto YouTube.

The Falcons win if: a miracle occurs.

The Saints win if: their bus doesn't break down on the way to Atlanta.

Prediction: Falcons lose.

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Really, really, really hoping the crappy Sanchez shows up. Also, hope we show up as well.

Prediction: Falcons lose

Buffalo Bills
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 27th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: CBS
Why: The Bills aren't looking too good. Uh oh...

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Even mediocre QBs look awesome against our defense. But hopefully, the Bills are in such turmoil that they won't notice that.

Prediction: Falcons win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers With a Vengeance
Where: Raymond James Stadium
When: Sunday January 3rd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Tampa won't make the same mistakes twice, especially on their home turf.

Prediction: Falcons lose.

Current season record: 6-5 (Wins against MIA, CAR, SF, CHI, WAS, TB; losses against NE, DAL, NO, CAR, NYG)

Current season prediction: 7-9 (Wins: MIA, CAR, SF, CHI, WAS, TB, , BUF, TB; Loss: NE, DAL, CAR, NO, NYG, PHI, NO, NYJ, TB)

tlozwarlock's Current Prediction record: 9-2

#Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith confirms QB Matt Ryan is OUT for Sunday's game vs. Philly due to his...

tlozwarlock — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 20:38:47 -0000

#Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith confirms QB Matt Ryan is OUT for Sunday's game vs. Philly due to his turf toe injury. -

Atlanta Falcons Twitter

Observations from Section 326: ATL vs TB

tlozwarlock — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:28:02 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

Everyone else did this at the exact same time. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

Remember when the Falcons were up 10-0 in the second quarter after Ryan had limped off to the sideline? There was a feeling of calm in the stadium; it was soothing, warming, welcoming. It also lasted all of a TV timeout. Tampa came out the next drive and fired off two successful passes, traveling 80 yards for a score in all of 14 seconds. And then a man collapsed in the adjacent section. I was too busy texting Dave about how awesome it was to see Jerious take a shuffle pass when iRonin, ever the watchful observer, noticed EMTs rushing into a crowd of people. One man was fanning his gameday towel, another was holding the victim upright.

So thank you Josh Freeman and our secondary; you actually made a full grown man lose consciousness with your performance on the field yesterday. On to business.

Dave's said it, now I'm saying it. Regardless of how Michael Turner felt yesterday, he should have been on the sideline in sweats.
Matty, Matty, Matty. Back in my playing days, we called a stubbed toe a lucky break (in lieu of worse ailments), not a game-ending injury. I know he has to put weight on it to throw, but seeing as he's been throwing off his back foot most of the time anyway...
At one point, iRonin shouted "Come on, Defense!" I turned to him and asked "What defense?" and he nodded sagely. In all seriousness, our defense made yet another mediocre quarterback look outstanding. That's now two bad QBs so far that have had banner days against our secondary. Jake Delhomme looked amazing against us last week. Let that sink in. Stings, doesn't it?
Redman is as Redman does: holds on to the ball too long but throws a mighty fine spiral. He was both good and bad in his first major playing time since pre-season. I'm not complaining too much about the man that helped win a game that we were desperately trying to lose.
Jerious Norwood is back, but for Pete's sake don't send him up the middle. His strength is on the screen and outside run. Durrrr.
Why is John Abraham dropping into coverage 30% of the time? Is it because every team double or triple teams him now? Seriously, in the immortal words of iRonin, "That's like trying to tow a boat with a Ferrari." Total misuse of resources.
Roddy and Gonzo were their usual selves. Can't complain much about them.
The officiating was, as has been a recurring theme on this feature, absolutely atrocious. So nyah to the zebras.

Let the Great WhatIfSports/Falcoholic SimLeague Raffle Begin

tlozwarlock — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:39:05 -0000

As I related last week, we've got 22 slots to give away for the Falcoholic WhatIfSports.com SimLeague. Choose any player from any team from any era and duke it out with fellow Falcoholics. You know you want to. Email me with your username and you'll be in the pot. I'll be drawing on November 30th (Monday) and will announce the winners on the 1st of December. Winners will receive a free team to enter into the league ($9.00 value).