SBNation.com User Blog: toadayoda

A Backwards Approach to the Offseason

toadayoda — Fri, 15 Feb 2013 18:31:24 -0000

Most mock offseasons start with free agency to fill the obvious holes and end with the draft to fill any holes that remain. I will take a slightly different approach. Leading up to the draft, GMs put a lot of effort into scouting potential draftees, whom they then place on their big board. This gives them a strong idea of who will be available and what direction they will go in before the draft even happens. They then use this information to assess what holes need to be filled via FA. I will attempt to follow this model.

The Draft

Round 1: Ezekiel Ansah, DE

This draft is fairly top heavy at DE. This makes it highly likely that a top prospect like Ansah will fall to us. He is fairly raw, but he is ridiculously athletic and gifted. He has shown a great willingness to learn, as his reads have dramatically improved from year to year. We have one of the best Dline coaches in the league (Kacy Rodgers), so this pick makes a lot of sense.

2A: Phillip Thomas, S

The draft's top corners (Milliner, Banks, Rhodes, Trufant) will all probably be gone by the time we pick here, and I do not believe any of the other corners in this draft will actually be an upgrade over Marshall. This draft has a good supply of top safety prospects (Vacarro, Reid, Elam), making it likely that Thomas is here when we pick. He fits our scheme the best, as he is a rangy cover safety with a history of making plays on the ball (8 INTs this year, 3 of them returned for TDs). Keeping him over the top will allow Jones to roam more in the box.

2B: Dallas Thomas, OT

By this point, most of the top second round WRs will likely be gone, though there still should be good value in the 3rd. However, there are plenty of offensive linemen slotted for the first and second rounds, making it likely that Thomas falls to us here. He fits the scheme well due to his high athleticism, and if we get an upgrade at T somewhere else, he has the versatility to move to OG.

3A: Stedman Bailey, WR

Bailey is quick, fast, strong, and runs good routes. His size is sure to drop his stock here, but we will get a steal. In our scheme, he is not asked to be the #1; just get open. I would not be surprised if he becomes the next Jennings.

3B: Brandon Jenkins, DE

I know this would cause us to double up on DE, but this is a first round prospect who will likely fall to the third due to an injury. Ireland loves taking chances on once highly touted players who fall (Martin, Miller), and when paired with Ansah, Wake, and Vernon, will give us a strong pass rush throughout the game.

4. Marcus Lattimore, RB

Another first round talent who will fall due to injury concerns. As he would be asked to be the #2 or #3 back at most in our system, he will not see enough touches to make durability a huge concern. We can afford to take a chance on him this late.

Beyond the 4th, it is difficult to predict, as these players are not necessarily expected to contribute. Thus, knowing what holes we will likely have to fill, we can move on to FA.

Free Agency

Brian Hartline, WR- 4 mil

Since we are only expecting to spend a single third rounder on WR, we need to make sure we get our #1 and #2 in FA. Hartline has begun the negotiations at $6 mil, but Ireland plays hardball. He will ultimately sign for close to his value in a deep WR class.

Chris Clemons, S- 2 mil

Though we will acquire an upgrade at S in the draft, Clemons will come relatively cheap and will know the system well. He is a very solid backup and well worth his modest contract.

Sean Smith, CB- 6 mil

We do not expect to address CB in this draft, making it a huge priority in FA. Smith has come out and said that he wants a contract in the neighborhood of 6 years $42 mil, but again, a deep CB FA pool will force him to curb his demands slightly.

Tony McDaniel, DT- 2 mil

Solid depth signing. We don't need to spend much more than this on the Dline with the addition of two top DEs in the draft.

Greg Jennings, WR- 7 mil

I personally would prefer Bowe, but he will likely resign with KC. Wallace will be too expensive for his production. Jennings will be a solid teammate and a decent #1 WR who knows the system.

Martellus Bennett, TE- 5 mil

I really like Fasano, but Bennett is a much better player who will not ask for much more. He can both receive and block, giving us an upgrade at the position without going overboard.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB- 6 mil

Since we will not address CB in the draft, we really need to double up here in FA. DRC has had two bad years with the Eagles in a row, and in a deep CB class, will likely come at a reasonable price. He is a big playmaker, and will pair well with Smith on the outside.

Geoff Schwartz, OG- 2 mil

We are not expecting to bring in anyone to compete at the OG position. A cheap free agent signing with potential should be enough to push Jerry.

Dimitri Patterson, CB- Savings of 3 mil

It is not worth spending $5 mil on our 4th CB, so we cut him and bring him back to a more team friendly deal.

Notable Losses: Jake Long, Anthony Fasano, Reggie Bush, Randy Starks

Jake Long is too expensive for his production, and we can likely find an adequate replacement in the draft. Fasano is easy to upgrade in FA with Bennett. Bush is a dynamic player, but he doesn't fit the ZBS, and with the addition of a back like Lattimore, our RBs should be able to handle the load. Starks is no longer needed, as the addition of two top DEs allows us to easily move Odrick inside.

Total Spending- $31 mil

This gives us plenty of room for midseason signings, additional depth signings, rollover for next year, or allocation of more money to certain FA contracts.

Depth Chart

QB: Tannehill, Devlin, Late Round Rookie

RB: Miller, Thomas, Lattimore, Thigpen

FB: Lane

WR: Jennings, Hartline, Bess, Bailey, Mathews

TE: Bennett, Clay, Egnew

OT: Martin, Thomas, Garner, Yeatman

OG: Incognito, Schwartz, Jerry

C: Pouncey, Samuda

DE: Wake, Ansah, Jenkins, Vernon, Shelby

DT: Soliai, Odrick, McDaniel, Randall

LB: Dansby, Burnett, Misi, Trusnik, Kaddu, Spitler, Freeney

CB: Smith, DRC, Marshall, Patterson, Carroll

S: Jones, Thomas, Clemons, Wilson

K: Carpenter

P: Fields

LS: Denney

The Draft

Round 1: Ezekiel Ansah, DE

2A: Phillip Thomas, S

2B: Dallas Thomas, OT

3A: Stedman Bailey, WR

3B: Brandon Jenkins, DE

4. Marcus Lattimore, RB

Beyond the 4th, it is difficult to predict, as these players are not necessarily expected to contribute. Thus, knowing what holes we will likely have to fill, we can move on to FA.

Free Agency

Brian Hartline, WR- 4 mil

Chris Clemons, S- 2 mil

Though we will acquire an upgrade at S in the draft, Clemons will come relatively cheap and will know the system well. He is a very solid backup and well worth his modest contract.

Sean Smith, CB- 6 mil

Tony McDaniel, DT- 2 mil

Solid depth signing. We don't need to spend much more than this on the Dline with the addition of two top DEs in the draft.

Greg Jennings, WR- 7 mil

I personally would prefer Bowe, but he will likely resign with KC. Wallace will be too expensive for his production. Jennings will be a solid teammate and a decent #1 WR who knows the system.

Martellus Bennett, TE- 5 mil

I really like Fasano, but Bennett is a much better player who will not ask for much more. He can both receive and block, giving us an upgrade at the position without going overboard.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB- 6 mil

Geoff Schwartz, OG- 2 mil

We are not expecting to bring in anyone to compete at the OG position. A cheap free agent signing with potential should be enough to push Jerry.

Dimitri Patterson, CB- Savings of 3 mil

It is not worth spending $5 mil on our 4th CB, so we cut him and bring him back to a more team friendly deal.

Notable Losses: Jake Long, Anthony Fasano, Reggie Bush, Randy Starks

Total Spending- $31 mil

This gives us plenty of room for midseason signings, additional depth signings, rollover for next year, or allocation of more money to certain FA contracts.

Depth Chart

QB: Tannehill, Devlin, Late Round Rookie

RB: Miller, Thomas, Lattimore, Thigpen

FB: Lane

WR: Jennings, Hartline, Bess, Bailey, Mathews

TE: Bennett, Clay, Egnew

OT: Martin, Thomas, Garner, Yeatman

OG: Incognito, Schwartz, Jerry

C: Pouncey, Samuda

DE: Wake, Ansah, Jenkins, Vernon, Shelby

DT: Soliai, Odrick, McDaniel, Randall

LB: Dansby, Burnett, Misi, Trusnik, Kaddu, Spitler, Freeney

CB: Smith, DRC, Marshall, Patterson, Carroll

S: Jones, Thomas, Clemons, Wilson

K: Carpenter

P: Fields

LS: Denney

Another mock v2.0- with more realism

toadayoda — Sat, 19 Jan 2013 10:30:17 -0000

Edited to give a better and more informative writeup.

Resigned

B. Hartline- A solid complementary WR with good chemistry with Tannehill. Comes relatively cheap. 5 mil

R. Bush- A dynamic offensive weapon who gives us depth at the RB position. 4 mil

A. Fasano- A solid and versatile TE who is more than enough to solidify our TE corps. 3 mil

S. Smith- An inconsistent corner with the rare ability to stick with big number one receivers who needs some help so he is not forced into mismatches with smaller, quicker receivers. Only demands 7 mil, so this is not too much of a stretch. 6 mil

C. Clemons- A good complement to Jones that will not make mistakes. 2 mil

Total- 20mil

Newly signed

Geoff Schwartz OG- Cheap option that will likely be an upgrade to Jerry. Graded fairly highly on PFF in limited time on the Vikings. 2 mil

Dwayne Bowe WR- Big, fast, strong WR who is like a mini Marshall, without the issues. Outproduced Jennings despite a terrible QB, and a better fit than Wallace, as he is capable of running all the routes Philbin wants. 7 mil

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB- Big, fast, quick CB that is coming off two bad years with the Eagles, mainly because he was improperly cast as a nickel CB. We give him the opportunity to excel as a boundary CB across from Smith. 5 mil

Glenn Dorsey DT- Cheap depth signing with talent. Starks will be replaced by Odrick, and so Dorsey will fill the hole created by the departure of McDaniel. Based on last year, he should be an upgrade over Mcdaniel at a lower price as well. 1 mil

Total- 15 mil

Total spending in FA- 35 mil

This leaves us plenty of room to resign RFAs, small time depth free agents like Garner, and extra free agents midseason. These figures do not include our inevitable restructuring of Dimitri Patterson's deal.

Draft

1. Trade- Dallas gives us 18 and their third to move up for C. Warmack.

We take C. Patterson WR. This gives us a big, fast, dynamic WR to pair with Bowe and Hartline, giving us a very strong WR corps.

2a. L. Johnson RT- With the loss of Long, it is essential that we pick up a solid RT to shore up the offensive line. Johnson has a very high ceiling, and has been recently compared to the Texans' Duane Brown.

2b. Trade- We trade this pick and our newly acquired 3rd to move up and take A. Okafor DE. He is an incredibly high ceiling player who Kacy Rodgers, one of the best Dline coaches in the league, should get the most out of.

3a. D. Thomas OT/OG- The loss of Long coupled with poor performance from our Oline last year necessitates additional depth along the Oline. With Thomas, Schwartz, Jerry, and Incognito, we should have sufficient competition for the two OG spots to ensure a strong set of starters as well as quality depth.

3b. D. Amerson, S- He has a knack for making plays on the ball, and should eventually supplant Clemons.

4. T. Matthieu CB- Great talent with the possibility of eventually playing the nickel for us.

5-7: DT, TE, QB- I am not too familiar with prospects this far down the draft. It is worth picking up a new defensive tackle to back up Soliai and Odrick in the 5th, as we seem to have good luck in that round. Another TE to compete with Egnew and a backup QB to push Devlin will round out the draft.

Depth Chart

QB: Tannehill, Devlin, Rookie

RB: Bush, Thomas, Miller, Thigpen

FB: Lane

WR: Bowe, Hartline, Patterson, Bess, Binns, Mathews

TE: Fasano, Clay, Egnew

OT: Martin, Johnson, Garner

OG: Incognito, Schwartz, Thomas, Jerry

C: Pouncey, Samuda

DE: Wake, Okafor, Vernon, Shelby

DT: Soliai, Odrick, Dorsey, Randall

LB: Dansby, Misi, Burnett, Spitler, Kaddu, Trusnik

CB: Smith, Rodgers-Cromartie, Marshall, Patterson, Matthieu, Carroll

S: Jones, Clemons, Amerson, Wilson

K: Carpenter

P: Fields

LS: Denney

This should improve our oline, secondary, and receivers without going overboard in FA. The only areas of concern are DL and TE. Our DL has changed a lot, but I believe it will actually improve, as the dropoff from Starks to Odrick will not be huge with Odrick playing in position. Furthermore, Dorsey should be an upgrade over McDaniel and Okafor, playing in position, should provide better production than Odrick did last year. Our TEs have not changed, but with our OL improving due to additions to the interior and Martin bulking up, they should produce more than last year. Also, Egnew should improve to the point where he can contribute this year, as I see him as being very similar to Finley.

Edited to give a better and more informative writeup.

Resigned

B. Hartline- A solid complementary WR with good chemistry with Tannehill. Comes relatively cheap. 5 mil

R. Bush- A dynamic offensive weapon who gives us depth at the RB position. 4 mil

A. Fasano- A solid and versatile TE who is more than enough to solidify our TE corps. 3 mil

C. Clemons- A good complement to Jones that will not make mistakes. 2 mil

Total- 20mil

Newly signed

Geoff Schwartz OG- Cheap option that will likely be an upgrade to Jerry. Graded fairly highly on PFF in limited time on the Vikings. 2 mil

Total- 15 mil

Total spending in FA- 35 mil

Draft

1. Trade- Dallas gives us 18 and their third to move up for C. Warmack.

We take C. Patterson WR. This gives us a big, fast, dynamic WR to pair with Bowe and Hartline, giving us a very strong WR corps.

3b. D. Amerson, S- He has a knack for making plays on the ball, and should eventually supplant Clemons.

4. T. Matthieu CB- Great talent with the possibility of eventually playing the nickel for us.

Depth Chart

QB: Tannehill, Devlin, Rookie

RB: Bush, Thomas, Miller, Thigpen

FB: Lane

WR: Bowe, Hartline, Patterson, Bess, Binns, Mathews

TE: Fasano, Clay, Egnew

OT: Martin, Johnson, Garner

OG: Incognito, Schwartz, Thomas, Jerry

C: Pouncey, Samuda

DE: Wake, Okafor, Vernon, Shelby

DT: Soliai, Odrick, Dorsey, Randall

LB: Dansby, Misi, Burnett, Spitler, Kaddu, Trusnik

CB: Smith, Rodgers-Cromartie, Marshall, Patterson, Matthieu, Carroll

S: Jones, Clemons, Amerson, Wilson

K: Carpenter

P: Fields

LS: Denney

Another Mock

toadayoda — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 17:46:36 -0000

Free Agency

We have about $51 million in cap space. However, we have to keep some money to sign rookies and as a buffer, so we have about $41 million to work with.

Re-signees

Smith- $5.5 mil

He has a small time agent who wont want to jeapordize his relationship with the Dolphins. Plus he has gone on record saying he wants to be here. We need him.

Hartline- $4 mil

He gives us a hometown discount to stay. Solid player with good chemistry with Tannehill.

Fasano- $2.5 mil

Underrated TE, very solid starter.

McDaniel- $2 mil

We need a backup DT

Spitler- $0.5 mil

Developmental player, RFA

Garner- $1 mil

Important backup for the Oline

Total $15.5 mil

Cuts

D. Patterson- $2.5 mil saved

We restructure his contract for a more favorable cap hit

R. Marshall- $3.5 mil saved

Didnt play much and got hurt. Wont be missed too badly.

R. Incognito- $4.5 mil saved

Doesnt move well, not a great fit for our Oline.

Total Savings $10.5 mil

Signees

G. Jennings WR - $8 mil

I think he is highly overrated, but he will make a decent slot type receiver in our new offense without a no 1 guy.

W. Beatty OT - $5 mil

Highly solid RT from the Giants, will allow us to move Martin to LT without causing huge problems.

A. Levitre OG - $7 mil

With Long gone, it is important that we improve our O-line, and he is the best OG on the market.

J. Byrd S- $8 mil

By far the best S on the market, will improve our secondary greatly.

M. Johnson DE- $8 mil

Gives us a strong pass rusher opposite Wake and allows us to kick Odrick inside to his natural position.

Total $36 Mil

Overall Cap Hit : $41 Mil

Draft

1. D. Milliner, CB

I am confident he will be available. Best CB in the draft and will give us a strong tandem with Smith.

2a. D. Thomas, OT/OG

We can kick him inside to RG to finish our new Oline.

2b. R. Woods, WR

Will never be a #1 WR because of his size, but doesnt need to be with Hartline and Jennings. Runs good routes and provides YAC, unlike Justin Hunter.

3a. B. Jenkins, DE

First round talent dropping due to injury, provides depth along the Dline, and will push Vernon. Eventually, one will be able to replace Wake.

3b. J. Franklin, RB

Will provide some RB depth after losing Bush and maybe even take over as the starter if he beats out Miller.

4. T. Matthieu, CB

A gamble, but well worth it at this spot to improve depth in the secondary.

5-7: Backup QB, backup OT, backup WR

Depth Chart

QB: Tannehill, Devlin, Rookie

RB: Miller, Thomas, Franklin, Thigpen

FB: Lane

TE: Fasano, Clay, Egnew

WR: Jennings, Hartline, Woods, Bess, Binns, Matthews

LT: Martin, Rookie

LG: Levitre

C: Pouncey, Samuda

RG: Thomas, Jerry

RT: Beatty, Garner

DE: Wake, Johnson, Vernon, Jenkins, Shelby

DT: Soliai, Odrick, Randall, McDaniel

LB: Dansby, Burnett, Misi, Spitler, Trusnik, Kaddu

CB: Smith, Milliner, Patterson, Carroll, Matthieu

S: Byrd, Jones, Wilson, Culver

K: Carpenter

P: Fields

LS: Denney

Free Agency

We have about $51 million in cap space. However, we have to keep some money to sign rookies and as a buffer, so we have about $41 million to work with.

Re-signees

Smith- $5.5 mil

He has a small time agent who wont want to jeapordize his relationship with the Dolphins. Plus he has gone on record saying he wants to be here. We need him.

Hartline- $4 mil

He gives us a hometown discount to stay. Solid player with good chemistry with Tannehill.

Fasano- $2.5 mil

Underrated TE, very solid starter.

McDaniel- $2 mil

We need a backup DT

Spitler- $0.5 mil

Developmental player, RFA

Garner- $1 mil

Important backup for the Oline

Total $15.5 mil

Cuts

D. Patterson- $2.5 mil saved

We restructure his contract for a more favorable cap hit

R. Marshall- $3.5 mil saved

Didnt play much and got hurt. Wont be missed too badly.

R. Incognito- $4.5 mil saved

Doesnt move well, not a great fit for our Oline.

Total Savings $10.5 mil

Signees

G. Jennings WR - $8 mil

I think he is highly overrated, but he will make a decent slot type receiver in our new offense without a no 1 guy.

W. Beatty OT - $5 mil

Highly solid RT from the Giants, will allow us to move Martin to LT without causing huge problems.

A. Levitre OG - $7 mil

With Long gone, it is important that we improve our O-line, and he is the best OG on the market.

J. Byrd S- $8 mil

By far the best S on the market, will improve our secondary greatly.

M. Johnson DE- $8 mil

Gives us a strong pass rusher opposite Wake and allows us to kick Odrick inside to his natural position.

Total $36 Mil

Overall Cap Hit : $41 Mil

Draft

1. D. Milliner, CB

I am confident he will be available. Best CB in the draft and will give us a strong tandem with Smith.

2a. D. Thomas, OT/OG

We can kick him inside to RG to finish our new Oline.

2b. R. Woods, WR

Will never be a #1 WR because of his size, but doesnt need to be with Hartline and Jennings. Runs good routes and provides YAC, unlike Justin Hunter.

3a. B. Jenkins, DE

First round talent dropping due to injury, provides depth along the Dline, and will push Vernon. Eventually, one will be able to replace Wake.

3b. J. Franklin, RB

Will provide some RB depth after losing Bush and maybe even take over as the starter if he beats out Miller.

4. T. Matthieu, CB

A gamble, but well worth it at this spot to improve depth in the secondary.

5-7: Backup QB, backup OT, backup WR

Depth Chart

QB: Tannehill, Devlin, Rookie

RB: Miller, Thomas, Franklin, Thigpen

FB: Lane

TE: Fasano, Clay, Egnew

WR: Jennings, Hartline, Woods, Bess, Binns, Matthews

LT: Martin, Rookie

LG: Levitre

C: Pouncey, Samuda

RG: Thomas, Jerry

RT: Beatty, Garner

DE: Wake, Johnson, Vernon, Jenkins, Shelby

DT: Soliai, Odrick, Randall, McDaniel

LB: Dansby, Burnett, Misi, Spitler, Trusnik, Kaddu

CB: Smith, Milliner, Patterson, Carroll, Matthieu

S: Byrd, Jones, Wilson, Culver

K: Carpenter

P: Fields

LS: Denney

A Mock Offseason

toadayoda — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 06:27:32 -0000

Well, we are out of the playoffs. However, while the season is by no means over, it can still be interesting to look ahead at the our offseason possibilities, as our weaknesses are quite apparent. My mock is after the jump.

Coaching Staff

Clearly, it is imperative that we maintain continuity on the defense; thus, Mike Nolan and all defensive position coaches should be retained. However, Dan Henning has held this team back offensively; he should be replaced. I prefer someone more aggressive, someone who has proven that he can use a gunslinger QB like Henne to his full potential; that is why I would like someone like Mike Martz or even Gary Kubiak, should one of them become available. Also, in order to show the disappointment the coaches have for Henne's development, David Lee should be replaced.

However, Tony Sparano should also keep his job. Every year under him, the team has improved; he just needs time and good assistant coaches, and he can easily turn the franchise around. Anyone else will simply slow the retooling process.

Free Agency

Our highest priority is the offensive line; thus, I advocate signing LG Logan Mankins. Also, for some speed on offense, I think it would be wise to go after RB Darren Sproles and WR Jacoby Jones. To make room for them, we should trade Brian Hartline (he can be very good and he is entering his third year, making his trade value high, but he just doesn't fit the team's needs very well) and Vernon Carey (he is getting older, but still is very well respected in the league. Also, he is about to get very expensive, and cutting his contract will give us money needed to sign the other players.)

These trades should net us a mid to high 3rd rounder and a mid 4th rounder.

We should also re-sign Ronnie Brown to a 2 year contract, with an option to void the second year, to be safe and to make sure we have a lead back this year. We should allow Ricky Williams to retire. Lastly, Richie Incognito should be re-signed as a right guard, and Tyler Thigpen should be re-signed as the backup.

Defensively, Paul Soliai must be signed at all costs. However, Tony Mcdaniel should be allowed to walk, as he will be expensive, and we do not need to be 6 deep at 3 line positions.

Draft

1st Round: Trade down to the end of the 1st for either an early 3rd or a late 2nd. With this pick, we should get Nate Solder (OT) to help replace Vernon Carey at RT. He is apparently extremely talented, and should improve our pass blocking.

2nd Round: Trade up to early 2nd or late 1st round using the picks we acquired from trading down and from trading away players. With this pick, we should select Stefen Wisnewski (C) to finish overhauling the line. Our final line will look like Long - Mankins - Wisnewski - Incognito/Jerry - Solder, with Garner as primary backup.

3rd Round: Christian Ponder (QB)- He should be taken as insurance for Chad Henne. He is immensely accurate (68.7%), and a senior: a good recipe for success. Best case scenario, he is a very solid backup to Chad Henne; worst case scenario, he is the next hopeful franchise quarterback for the Dolphins.

4th Round: Pass Catching Tight End

5th and After: Depth along line, at running back, and on Defense

Conclusion

I know that the idea of keeping Henne and Sparano is not popular, but I truly believe that by adding some speed to the offense, upgrading the offensive coordinator and QB coach positions, and especially overhauling the line while maintaining a sense of continuity, this offense, and by extension this team, can become great. All that is left to address for next year is Ronnie Brown's replacement, and, in the unlikely event Henne, Ponder, and Thigpen all tank, QB.