so, strauss works his little jedi mind tricks on you (again!) and convinces you to stay up late and see what little soon-to-be-debunked gem he has for you! Holliday will start taking grounders at third! the Oakland A's have bid 14 years and $340 million for Matt Holliday's services! the cards plan to sign holliday then secretly flip him to the giants for matt cain and a basket of Ghirardelli's chocolates after a month!

suckers.

a special season is upon us. one we look forward to all year. this special season commemorates events of thousands of years past.

in the days of king solomon, solomon was both the king of the nation of israel and the general manager of the local team, the jerusalem stars. the stars had grown tired of being dominated by the philistines and amalekites in the eastern mediterranean league by their unholy brand of Base-Ba'al.

solomon saw an opportunity when phlebas the phoenician came on the free agent market, a highly-touted left fielder who made his name playing for the city of tyre.

phlebas was a fine fielder and an extraordinary hitter, yet his contract expectations were said to be enormous. he was rumored to want 19 million shekels each season over eight seasons. solomon checked his treasury, and though he was wealthy enough to afford to pay the 19 million shekels over one season, no one believed he could afford to pay phlebas the full eight seasons. in the face of arguments and predictions of financial doom from his advisors, solomon signed the eight-year contract for the full amount.

once phlebas took the field, a miracle occurred; the nineteen million shekels was mystically replenished each season, and phlebas was paid from the treasury over all eight seasons. never did the weight of the unprecedented contract hold down the development of the team. phlebas went on to win 2 MVP awards in that period and the stars clinched five championships in eight years. 

the flags from those championship years flew proudly over the stadium grounds for a thousand years until the romans demolished the stadium in 70 A.D. to build a Super Target and a Bed, Bath, and Beyond on the site.

so much for flags flying forever.

in honor of this miracle, every year we celebrate chaut stove season  - marked by the refrain "why is this jon heyman tweet different from all the other jon heyman tweets?" - every day for eight days or until the yankees have signed all the good players, whichever comes first.

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[unknown date] matt holliday contemplates getting all the money he deserves.

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i was showing my daughter for the first time the epic "a charlie brown christmas," and i was struck by a line that was delivered so poignantly, so humanly, so utterly childlike. the line is appropriate to both the holiday season and the baseball free agency season. the line called to mind matt holliday and everybody else gunning for the bigger dollars and the bigger years, often demanding sums that have nothing to do with their own needs or wants, but to demonstrate that they are more important than the next player in line (e.g., the rumor that linececum will demand a symbolic $23,000,001 in arbitration to show that he is more important than the best paid pitcher in baseball).

what matt is saying is: all i want is what i have coming to me; all i want is my fair share.*

and just as sally is right and yet so wrong at the same time, because looking out for her own self-interest (something that we all do and must do) clashes badly with the themes of the season, which is supposed to be about selflessness and giving, matt is both right and oh so wrong in baseball. right, in that the money may just go into the steinbrenners' pockets or the legendary dewallet should he agree to less than the ultimate penny he can squeeze out of his negotiating partner/opponent. wrong in that baseball, like christmas, is supposed to be above pettiness and above greed. baseball is about allegiances to a team, a team the player is supposed to sweat and bleed and struggle for; how do we reconcile that with the vision of a player pimping himself out to the highest bidder before the last out of the world series has settled in the glove?

baseball is supposed to be wholesome and american and all those things that wake adam dunn up in a cold sweat in the middle of the night. is it an accident that the two most iconic peanuts associations are christmas and baseball? 

mind you, i am not saying that matt holliday is a bad person because he likes money. i look at free agency and baseball contracts and know that that is how it will be, inevitably. you can call it "wrong" if you like; i won't tell you that you're wrong in return. but one might as well tell a five-year old that she's "wrong" to wish for toys and candy at christmas. it is simply the way the world is, and the best one can say is that we can look at it and wish it were different, and we are fools to devote any more effort to it than wishing.

if i die and go to the afterlife and discover that any deity resembles ayn rand in any fashion, i will surely have to answer for the sin that is this post.

* i read on the internet and therefore it must be true that the actress portraying sally in the christmas special was so young she could not read or memorize her lines, and therefore her lines were often read orally to her, leading to the endearingly choppy delivery of that iconic line. 

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by Al Behrman - AP

I am the greatest!!! Suck it, Ryan.

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as we enter the horse latitudes of the baseball posting seasons -- doldrums occuring somewhere between the first scent of pumpkin pie and the hangover from new year's -- it is time to give some attention to a factor sometimes overlooked.

we toss around the term "replacement value" as a kind of an insult. in reality, a replacement value player has his role. a team with an ample supply of replacement value players on the bench and in the minors has a real asset. like someone who runs the mile in 7:30 flat, it's easy to forget that lots of people don't reach that unimpressive level. 

players accruing value below replacement level are not hard to find. here is a quick sampling of some of the worst players of 2009 in terms of  negative value.

these players run the gamut from the injured and ailing (Jackson & Aviles), the inept (Betancourt), the unlucky replacement value player (Miles), the player with yet-unrealized potential (Young), to the player with such a monstrously bad contract that the club continues to put him out there in the vain hope that he will somehow garner a return on the investment (Guillen). the Guillen performance reminds me of a Monty Python sketch about sheep that are attempting and failing to fly; the effort was tolerated by the shepherd, despite the fatalities among the flock, because of the "enormous commercial possibilities" should the sheep succeed. 

both of the two least valuable players in MLB are on the Royals. coincidence?

it is worth noting that I have excluded from the list above the negative offensive performance of pitchers. most pitchers hit below replacement value. fangraphs tracks their value as pitchers separately from their value as hitters. i simply don't think that the negative offensive performance of pitchers is sufficiently worth concerning ourselves about in these discussions; it's worth keeping in mind for exceptional cases, but just not worth concerning oneself over. even reasonably good hitting pitchers will likely rack up a negative value with the bad. micah owings led all ML pitchers with an astounding 2.3 runs above replacement value with the bat. 90% of all pitchers were worth between 2 runs above replacement value and 4 runs below replacement value in 2009.

now, let's take a look at how teams fared in accumulating negative value in 2009 -- you can probably guess who's number one.

the teams are ordered by lowest overall position player WAR for the team. there's some correlation between overall team performance and negative performance by some members of the team, but not as strong as you might think. playoff teams like the Angels made it to October even though the contingent of the incompetent, led by gary matthews jr., did their best to halt the Angels progress.

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November 18, 2009 - St. Louis sportswriter Jeff Gordon reacts to the news that both Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were passed over for the Cy Young award in favor of 15 game winner Tim Linececum.

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before i get into discussion, i would like to say that I do not believe that the bullpen is the biggest issue for the cards in 2010. last season, there was much kvetching about the failure of the GM to get a closer. the cards could do much better to work on improving their defense, their offense, or replacing joel pineiro's contribution to the rotation. writing in the abstract here, before i really formulate any conclusions, i'd have to say i care less about our bullpen than most areas of the club. still, i think it's worth looking at what we have.

here is a table showing the bill james projections for the cards' bullpen in 2010.

*mitch boggs was predicted to start 10 games and to make 12 appearances from the bullpen.

I was frankly surprised by these projections - many of them were not nearly as bad as i had thought -- mcclellan, motte -- and some were far worse. miller had an excellent 2009, but james sees him coming back to earth. franklin is projected to fall off a cliff and have the cliff fall down on him after he lands. 

more surprising, though, is that this looks to be a tolerable bullpen performance overall. in 2009, the team average FIP was 4.30. here, only franklin, hawksworth, and boggs are projected to turn in a less impressive performance.

something which shouldn't be surprising to anybody is that the whole bullpen has an appalling tendency towards walks; franklin projects the only real impressive bb rate, one totally subsumed by the 4.87 k/9 right next to it. control should be the gospel for mason to preach this spring. 

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St. Louis Cardinals Reliever Ryan Franklin enjoys an off-season snowstorm while vacationing at the War Drobe Mountain Lodge in Spare Oom, Colorado on November 8, 2009.

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just like i can't get used to christmas carols at the grocery store before thanksgiving, the MAJOR LEAGUE DRAMA of WHERE WILL HE SIGN? is starting to get goddamn old. and there's still a week left before he goes on the market. front page articles everyday on what admittedly is probably about the only interesting baseball topic in st. louis right now have begun to wear me down. right now, i no longer really care. i just want the damn thing over. i know i should care. i know we're talking about what could be one of the top twenty-five players in baseball (13th among position players by WAR in 2009), and we're probably talking about a 9-figure contract that could hamstring the club for the next 5, 6, or more years if done wrong. i know all this. i just can't read another article whose basic theme is the same thing we've been batting around since we stopped yammering about "HFS (tm) BRETT WALLACE AND MORTENSON?"

he's going to cost a lot of money.

like a lot of money. a metric shit-ton. like maybe the household income of 2,500 ordinary american families. since each family has an average of 2.6 members, that's a decent size town - like a population the size of Brentwood, MO. do the cards have that much money? probably. is that the best way to spend it? uhh . . . the cheap answer is it depends on the years and the actual dollar amounts. the real answer is i have no clue whatsoever. there's no question he's better than everybody else on the market -- claims from the Bay camp notwithstanding: the Bay camp, incidentally, IS the Holliday camp. i'm a big fan of some of our rising OF prospects, an issue i rarely see discussed on the boards in relation to the holliday signing, and, while none of them look like a 6 WAR player like holliday, i could easily stomach a year of mike cameron with allen craig cameos, followed by a year of DJTools, henley, and craig running wild in the OF at league min, allowing us to spend some money on retaining albert and getting some needed high-ticket players.

the holliday contract will just be a huge leap; a decision that could make or break a franchise for years. and i am so sick of talking about it.

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

FILE -- This is a 2009 file photo showing St. Louis Cardinals baseball player Yadier Molina. A New York sports marketing firm has sued St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, saying he snubbed their agreement to make appearances and sign autographs. Steiner Sports Marketing's lawsuit, filed Friday, Oct. 13, 2009, in New York, says the sports memorabilia company had a contract with Molina dating to October 2006. Molina explained that he simply got tired after walking 3 blocks from 57th Street and had to stop and have a rest. Al Hrabosky stood across the street and criticized him for lack of hustle. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

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It only believes

In a pile of dead leaves

And a moon that's the color of bone

T.S. Eliot thought April was the cruelest month, but that was because he left St. Louis and moved to London where April was one of eleven months when it mostly just rains. Also, whatever time he might have spent watching the Perfectos or the Browns in his youth he had clearly forgotten, because April is the month when baseball starts up again. In England, you just get to wait for cricket season, and do they even have spring training for cricket? I think they have to wait until the weather clears in July to get the one game of cricket in before the pre-autumn drizzle, because that one game takes three weeks to play.

April is a favorite month of mine, when things turn green and baseball reappears.

November is one of my least favorite months, right up there with February; November has slightly better weather and Thanksgiving, but February is pitchers and catchers reporting time. September and October are beautiful months, also some of the best months in the calendar. Falling leaves, cool and temperate weather that is such a relief from the heat and humidity of July and August. But by the time kids finish throwing up the remainder of their Halloween candy, the world turns to crap. Worst of all, no more baseball. Four solid months of no baseball. Mostly.

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More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Joel Pineiro sits alone in the dugout during the fifth inning and considers whether he would rather move to New York, Cleveland, or Milwaukee, after being pulled out of Game 3 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009, in St. Louis. "As long the money's good, I can go anywhere. Not Detroit, though," he said later. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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First off, can I start by saying that chase utley is the second-best position player in the NL? This should not be a surprise, but apparently utley's talent came as a great shock to numerous national broadcasters and sportswriters this week. Last week, I'm not sure you could have gotten 30 percent of them to vote for him as the most valuable position player just on the phillies.

My aim this week is to start a series of posts about defensive metrics. I have a few simple thought experiments to look at their effectiveness. UZR (as the primary tool available to us) is probably not as well understood as it might be. I know that many posters are skeptical of UZR, others want to take it with a HUGE grain of salt, still others probably buy into it as a matter of faith rather than rigorous evaluation of the existing work on it. I confess that I often fall into the latter category. 

In a humble moment I would like say I often learn just enough to understand the very basics of a theory. From that point. I trust that people (ones I know are much smarter than I am) are unlikely to lead me astray. The scientific method it's not.

since I'm not the kind of expert saberologist that has turned his second computer into a SQL machine dedicated to running sabr analysis, the only thing I have to offer is that maybe I can - by working this stuff through for myself - bring along others who are on the same level as I am. FYI - my sabr MO ends at the point of downloading some stats in excel off of fangraphs. I have no idea if anybody has done this or something like it before, so I apologize in advance if it's redundant.

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More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan watches a caterpillar during the fourth inning in Game 3 of the National League division baseball series Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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As you may have guessed from the position in which this post appears, I will be filling in on Saturdays to take part of the role that chuckb played. I was very honored to be considered for the role, and even more surprised. I'm not the sabermagician that chuckb is, and i probably don't have the baseball smarts that many posters do. I certainly have never played the game (beyond a grade school level) and, if that disturbs you, I guess you should probably just skip down to the comments area.

I want to start out by recognizing the contributions of chuckb (nee houstoncardinal). Chuck has a long history of putting together very strong articles, showing a thorough understanding of the game and a dedication to backing up his opinions with statistical analysis. If I can be a quarter as infomative as chuck, I will be very happy.

I also officially assume the role of grumpy old mod for the board since (I think?) I am the only one on the wrong side of thirty. Or at least the side closer to Social Security. So, get off my lawn!

*             *           *

In the doldrums of May and June, the popular epithet for the Cardinals was "Albert and the seven dwarves." The name fit because Albert was in the throes of one of the best half-seasons (I am tempted to write "the best half-season, but then I recall the consistency of Albert's ridiculousness and must write "one of the best") and the remainder of the team ranged anywhere from at or slightly above league average on offense (rasmus, skippy, yadi) to well below (ryan, the two-headed third baseman of mediocrity, slumpwick, the two-headed leftfielder of mediocrity, kaheel, and Tyler Robinstav - a melange of replacement value rookies).

The team improved offensively down the stretch - mostly through addition (holliday, lugo), subtraction (duncan), and regression to a norm (ludwick). Of course, the titular tongue-in-cheek epithet was knowingly one-dimensional; it omitted the substantial defensive contributions in key roles: shortstop, catcher, centerfield.

But, not being prone to lament a rough end to the season, let the 2009 funeral meats coldly furnish forth the marriage table for 2010. There's a lot to like about this team for next season and beyond.

The $100M+ elephant in the room rhymes with "fat collie play." Whether he signs or not probably depends a great deal on two things: how much he wants to stay in St. Louis and whether dewitt wants to increase the budget to do so. Even a discounted holliday would really limit a low-$90M cardinal team. A full-price holliday could be tolerable on a budget that goes well beyond $100M. The fans did their part this year, cresting the 3M attendance mark, even in a very tough economic year. As the economy heals, the prognosis for 2010 attendance shouldn't be worse than 2009, and probably better.

Planning for a vacancy to arise in the LF market in St. Louis is not a pessimistic step. If we are not going to build a team around two players probably worth 12-14 WAR between them for next year, let's think about a different tack: build a team of albert pujols and a field of league average (or better) players, with the depth and flexibility to make sure we don't end up with replacement-level voids on the field. The perennial cry is for a "big bat," a masher, an all-star. and, don't get me wrong, i like all-stars. but holliday is really the only legit all-star option we're looking at. rather than blow our wad on one all-star (especially if he's not so all-starry), think about depth and flexibility.

Our net team position player WAR this year was 18.9 -- basically middle of the road (only the yankees and the rays broke 30 WAR). Seven position players each worth 2 WAR and a 7-8 WAR first baseman would get us past this year's mark.  Of course, achieving that number also means avoiding negative WAR; the vacuums of value (primary suspects - K. Greene, N. Stavinoha, chris duncan).

Last year, we had a few great peformers and some uninspiring showings. Only five players produced 2 WAR or better for the cardinals. Guess who ranks 8th for the team in WAR?

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I really don't have any faith that anybody is really "clutch." I think clutch is more a myth than a real phenomenon. But recently -- and after a record-setting LOB game, unsurpisingly -- much muttering about poor performance with runners in scoring position has been heard. I wanted to throw some numbers out there.

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