SB Nation User Blog: tom s.

November

tom s. — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 07:35:40 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

FILE -- This is a 2009 file photo showing St. Louis Cardinals baseball player Yadier Molina. A New York sports marketing firm has sued St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, saying he snubbed their agreement to make appearances and sign autographs. Steiner Sports Marketing's lawsuit, filed Friday, Oct. 13, 2009, in New York, says the sports memorabilia company had a contract with Molina dating to October 2006. Molina explained that he simply got tired after walking 3 blocks from 57th Street and had to stop and have a rest. Al Hrabosky stood across the street and criticized him for lack of hustle. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

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November

It only believes

In a pile of dead leaves

And a moon that's the color of bone

T.S. Eliot thought April was the cruelest month, but that was because he left St. Louis and moved to London where April was one of eleven months when it mostly just rains. Also, whatever time he might have spent watching the Perfectos or the Browns in his youth he had clearly forgotten, because April is the month when baseball starts up again. In England, you just get to wait for cricket season, and do they even have spring training for cricket? I think they have to wait until the weather clears in July to get the one game of cricket in before the pre-autumn drizzle, because that one game takes three weeks to play.

April is a favorite month of mine, when things turn green and baseball reappears.

November is one of my least favorite months, right up there with February; November has slightly better weather and Thanksgiving, but February is pitchers and catchers reporting time. September and October are beautiful months, also some of the best months in the calendar. Falling leaves, cool and temperate weather that is such a relief from the heat and humidity of July and August. But by the time kids finish throwing up the remainder of their Halloween candy, the world turns to crap. Worst of all, no more baseball. Four solid months of no baseball. Mostly.

That's why I've sought assistance from the king of all things cool, Tom Waits, to introduce the month.

November has tied me to an old dead tree

Get word to April to rescue me

November is cold rain running down your back, because there's that little spot of bare skin on your neck between your collar and your hat. November is a puddle of slush lurking at the edge of the curb, waiting to flood the shoe of the pedestrian stepping carelessly from the sidewalk. November is freezing rain. November is driving to work in the dark and driving home in the dark and wondering if the sun actually rose and set in the interim, or if the sun was just too depressed today and stayed in bed like you wish you had. Unless of course you live in one of those unnatural places where "winter" is the season when the temperature doesn't get above 75 degrees at midday. You are spoiling a good gloom with your suntans and your cheery smiles.

So if you want to love me

Darlin don't refrain

Or I'll just end up walkin, in the cold Nov . . .

All right, who let Axl Rose in my post? That is the wrong November song. Axl, don't you have a fifteen-year album project to work on? Better get that started and leave my thread alone.

For baseball fans, November is a particularly painful moment at which the trade and free agent markets are just too open, too uncertain. Too much can happen. Write all the paeans to Carl Crawford you like, you may find out tomorrow that the Rays picked up his option and the Cards never had a chance. December - yeah, December, the market has started to put itself together. GM meetings and the Rule V draft early in the month. A few names start signing. January, the market starts to fall in line and lots of signings take place. In November -- you know nothing. November is the awful uncertainty about everything except FOUR MORE MONTHS without baseball.

No prayers for November to linger longer

You know what you get in November? Jason LaRue. Jason LaRue is going to be offered a contract in November. Or not - which means that in 2010 we get to watch Matt Pagnozzi ground out weakly every 5 to 7 days while not looking like he has come to fix some young woman's 1970's-era cable box. The only thing worse than signing Jason LaRue in November is NOT signing Jason LaRue in November.

The month began with a drama-free World Series, which ended in a Yankees victory.

This off-season doesn't really even look like much fun. In a couple weeks we're going to find out if Matt Holliday truly appreciates fruit-filled pastry or was just stringing us along (signs point to "stringing us along"). If he doesn't sign then we probably look forward to a quiet offseason of signing a fixer-upper of a starting pitcher and either signing Mike Cameron (SIGN MIKE CAMERON), some aging half-bat who can't field, or some cheap non-entity to play LF. We really have nothing in the way of major trade chips right now, so we can't look into any exciting trades.

I am going to more throw out some names and such that may be or may not be worth keeping eyes on.

The Nats (team of 1,000 outfielders) declined the option on Austin Kearns. Kearns had a very rough year turning in a .298 wOBA and a slash line of .195/.336/.305. Actually, two rough years - since he had a weak 2008 too. Weird, weird line both years, though. He managed a fine 15.5% walk rate (and that .336 OBP would look nice on this team if the rest of the line wouldn't). Behind the BB rate are even more impressive discipline levels - he swung at only 18% of pitches out of the zone UP from 15% last season. His BABIP over the last couple years: .258 and .251, yet his LD% was a solid 18.7% and 21.1%. He injured his thumb in the middle of the season on a HBP, which may also explain some of his funk. You can't blame the nats for not wanting to pay $10M for that.

Is it possible to have two solid season of just wicked batted ball luck? I don't see why not - he had about a seasons worth of PA's over the two seasons. He managed a career 9.8 UZR/150 in RF, so he's no slouch in the field. He comes with his own history of character issues, too. I imagine my level of interest would depend on cost. I don't think I'd say I'm stumping for him, but if we could pick him up for a reclamation project piece, he's got good tools to build upon. You wouldn't have to see much of a BABIP rebound to get that OBP into a very nice place. In the race of replacement value OF, I'd say he clearly has a better ceiling than, say, a Rick Ankiel with poor plate discipline but more power. I wouldn't want him as our sole option in LF, but if we had him and Allen Craig and maybe another decent LF option -- something is going to stick to the wall.

This JJ Hardy story continues to intrigue me in a "what were they thinking?" sense. fourstick said they traded JJ Hardy -- one of the best defensive SS in the business -- for basically Jon Jay. I agree with that comp. Elsewhere I saw commenters wondering why JJ hadn't ended up in Boston, rich in starting pitching and needy in the SS position. MLB Trade Rumors has an answer of sorts - that the Brewers demanded either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard and wouldn't budge. The notion that you would stick to a demand for two of the top prospects around and then settle with another team for a replacement value player is completely bizarre. It's like going to Tony's with a $20 bill, demanding the duck, and when they refuse to sell you a $40 duck entree for $20, spending the whole thing on a day old loaf of bread.

Detroit seems to be putting Placido Polanco on the free agent market. I could be more excited if he weren't Type A.

Matt Leach is on the Cameron bandwagon. Elsewhere talk of Dye. Oh please no.

Bah. This is what November gives you. Wisps and teases and ultimately heartbreak.

November seems odd

You're my firing squad

November*

* FYI, I wrote most of this earlier this week. Now I see online it's going to be 72 degrees in St. Louis tomorrow. Don't worry. It's just November playing a trick on you, softening you up. Enjoy it, you bastards.

Putting UZR to the Test

tom s. — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 09:34:36 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Joel Pineiro sits alone in the dugout during the fifth inning and considers whether he would rather move to New York, Cleveland, or Milwaukee, after being pulled out of Game 3 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009, in St. Louis. "As long the money's good, I can go anywhere. Not Detroit, though," he said later. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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First off, can I start by saying that chase utley is the second-best position player in the NL? This should not be a surprise, but apparently utley's talent came as a great shock to numerous national broadcasters and sportswriters this week. Last week, I'm not sure you could have gotten 30 percent of them to vote for him as the most valuable position player just on the phillies.

My aim this week is to start a series of posts about defensive metrics. I have a few simple thought experiments to look at their effectiveness. UZR (as the primary tool available to us) is probably not as well understood as it might be. I know that many posters are skeptical of UZR, others want to take it with a HUGE grain of salt, still others probably buy into it as a matter of faith rather than rigorous evaluation of the existing work on it. I confess that I often fall into the latter category.

In a humble moment I would like say I often learn just enough to understand the very basics of a theory. From that point. I trust that people (ones I know are much smarter than I am) are unlikely to lead me astray. The scientific method it's not.

since I'm not the kind of expert saberologist that has turned his second computer into a SQL machine dedicated to running sabr analysis, the only thing I have to offer is that maybe I can - by working this stuff through for myself - bring along others who are on the same level as I am. FYI - my sabr MO ends at the point of downloading some stats in excel off of fangraphs. I have no idea if anybody has done this or something like it before, so I apologize in advance if it's redundant.

I want to take a couple team stats and compare them today: team E-F and team UZR. UZR you are probably familiar with, even if you don't understand it well. E-F is ERA minus FIP. ERA you know. FIP you probably know too; basically Fielding Independent Pitching is an index of those pitching outcomes totally in the control of the pitcher: walks, strikeouts, and home runs. The index is scaled to the ERA scale.

If FIP is truly "fielding independent," then earned runs minus what is fielding independent should leave you . . . well, fielding. And some luck.

So, first let's try the old standby. Let's look at the teams with the lowest E-F and their corresponding fielding percentage.

Team	E-F	E-F Rank	Field %	Field % Rank
Mariners	-0.52	1	0.983	21
Reds	-0.45	2	0.985	11
Dodgers	-0.38	3	0.986	6
Giants	-0.3	4	0.985	12
Cubs	-0.27	5	0.983	22
Phillies	-0.2	6	0.987	3
Tigers	-0.18	7	0.985	13
Cardinals	-0.16	8	0.985	14
Rangers	-0.1	9	0.982	25

This looks completely random. There's no correlation in any direction, even just by an eyeball test, between E-F and fielding percentage. Out of the best nine teams by E-F, two are in the top ten teams in fielding percentage, three are in the bottom ten, and four are in the middle ten.

Team	E-F	E-F Rank	Field %	Field % Rank	UZR	UZR Rank
Mariners	-0.52	1	0.983	21	85.4	1
Reds	-0.45	2	0.985	11	52.5	4
Dodgers	-0.38	3	0.986	6	1.1	14
Giants	-0.3	4	0.985	12	52.6	3
Cubs	-0.27	5	0.983	22	-19.2	20
Phillies	-0.2	6	0.987	3	29.6	7
Tigers	-0.18	7	0.985	13	45.1	5
Cardinals	-0.16	8	0.985	14	-17	16
Rangers	-0.1	9	0.982	25	33.2	6

Adding UZR to this table, on the other hand, shows something completely different -- the top nine teams in E-F include 6 of the top 7 teams in team UZR (the Rays, 2nd in the majors in UZR, were 14th in E-F). Three outliers - with less than top tier UZR - in the top nine are the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Cardinals. I'm not the type to give a statistical estimate on the degree of correlation. Still, I'm inclined to eyeball this table and say this is good evidence that UZR means something.

One of the exceptional teams that jumps out though is the home team. The cards have a pretty ordinary team UZR but a good E-F. Could be it's just luck. On the other hand, the cards' staff finished with the best GB percentage in the majors. Consider that UZR is a measure of defensive runs above average. So, if the balls the cards' staff put in play have a higher likelihood of turning into outs even with an average defender in the field, the staff might yet outperform the FIP without having above average defense. It could also just be luck; the Cubs and Dodgers finished with unimpressive groundball rates. I have no explanation other than luck for the Cubs' and Dodgers' staff E-F numbers. Even for the cards, my explanation is just a suggestion, a hypothesis, rather than an assertion that GB% explains the home team's appearance in the table.

E-F and UZR don't tell the whole story: some pitching skills not reflected in FIP like groundball rate may distort the results, so will dumb luck. But it's remarkable in some ways to combine a conventional run-counting stat like ERA with an advanced stat like FIP derived just from strikeouts, walks, and homers, and find a strong correspondence with a fielding stat that's measured by looking at ball trajectories on the field. The source material for all three stats are very different.

A last note, for anybody who wonders -- I used team UZR and team E-F just because they're extremely easy to work with. Team stats are a very blunt instrument; they will not give you much specific information, but they're good for finding broad trends. Trying to break down individual pitchers' E-Fs with particular defensive configurations behind them, etc. would require several guys much smarter than me and the secret 800 terabyte SABR Sam Adams-proof server farm Bill James is building under the bleachers at Fenway (I predict it will all end in tears when Papelbon sneaks into the computer room, accidentally puts a virus onto the servers when trying to download a solitaire app with pictures of naked women on the cards, and the Red Sox servers become the world's most powerful spambot, crashing internet service up and down the Eastern Seaboard). This little thought experiment has nothing to do with whether UZR properly apportions credit for good defense on the small scale, as between the SS and the 3B on the same team. The point is simply that UZR has something at its core, some real defensive truth that fielding percentage doesn't.

Big Shoes

tom s. — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 23:36:08 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Brendan Ryan watches a caterpillar during the fourth inning in Game 3 of the National League division baseball series Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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As you may have guessed from the position in which this post appears, I will be filling in on Saturdays to take part of the role that chuckb played. I was very honored to be considered for the role, and even more surprised. I'm not the sabermagician that chuckb is, and i probably don't have the baseball smarts that many posters do. I certainly have never played the game (beyond a grade school level) and, if that disturbs you, I guess you should probably just skip down to the comments area.

I want to start out by recognizing the contributions of chuckb (nee houstoncardinal). Chuck has a long history of putting together very strong articles, showing a thorough understanding of the game and a dedication to backing up his opinions with statistical analysis. If I can be a quarter as infomative as chuck, I will be very happy.

I also officially assume the role of grumpy old mod for the board since (I think?) I am the only one on the wrong side of thirty. Or at least the side closer to Social Security. So, get off my lawn!

* * *

In the doldrums of May and June, the popular epithet for the Cardinals was "Albert and the seven dwarves." The name fit because Albert was in the throes of one of the best half-seasons (I am tempted to write "the best half-season, but then I recall the consistency of Albert's ridiculousness and must write "one of the best") and the remainder of the team ranged anywhere from at or slightly above league average on offense (rasmus, skippy, yadi) to well below (ryan, the two-headed third baseman of mediocrity, slumpwick, the two-headed leftfielder of mediocrity, kaheel, and Tyler Robinstav - a melange of replacement value rookies).

The team improved offensively down the stretch - mostly through addition (holliday, lugo), subtraction (duncan), and regression to a norm (ludwick). Of course, the titular tongue-in-cheek epithet was knowingly one-dimensional; it omitted the substantial defensive contributions in key roles: shortstop, catcher, centerfield.

But, not being prone to lament a rough end to the season, let the 2009 funeral meats coldly furnish forth the marriage table for 2010. There's a lot to like about this team for next season and beyond.

The $100M+ elephant in the room rhymes with "fat collie play." Whether he signs or not probably depends a great deal on two things: how much he wants to stay in St. Louis and whether dewitt wants to increase the budget to do so. Even a discounted holliday would really limit a low-$90M cardinal team. A full-price holliday could be tolerable on a budget that goes well beyond $100M. The fans did their part this year, cresting the 3M attendance mark, even in a very tough economic year. As the economy heals, the prognosis for 2010 attendance shouldn't be worse than 2009, and probably better.

Planning for a vacancy to arise in the LF market in St. Louis is not a pessimistic step. If we are not going to build a team around two players probably worth 12-14 WAR between them for next year, let's think about a different tack: build a team of albert pujols and a field of league average (or better) players, with the depth and flexibility to make sure we don't end up with replacement-level voids on the field. The perennial cry is for a "big bat," a masher, an all-star. and, don't get me wrong, i like all-stars. but holliday is really the only legit all-star option we're looking at. rather than blow our wad on one all-star (especially if he's not so all-starry), think about depth and flexibility.

Our net team position player WAR this year was 18.9 -- basically middle of the road (only the yankees and the rays broke 30 WAR). Seven position players each worth 2 WAR and a 7-8 WAR first baseman would get us past this year's mark. Of course, achieving that number also means avoiding negative WAR; the vacuums of value (primary suspects - K. Greene, N. Stavinoha, chris duncan).

Last year, we had a few great peformers and some uninspiring showings. Only five players produced 2 WAR or better for the cardinals. Guess who ranks 8th for the team in WAR?

First base
Albert Pujols (8.4 WAR in 09)
The cornerstone. The Mang has been stellar since he sprang, fully formed, out of Mark McGwire's skull in 2001. No reason not to expect a 7+ WAR performance here . . . Except . . .

Depth
Should the unspeakable happen, the cards could look at mark "I make nick johnson look durable" hamilton. Also, the intertubes are abuzz with talk of some Free Allen Craig character. There's nobody who will play like the Mang, obvs.

Catcher
Yadier Molina (3.4 WAR)
Molina was the second most valuable position player last year, even though WAR does not account for catcher defense, which I hear he's pretty good at. I have no reason not to think he's less than a 2.5-3 WAR player next year.

Depth
Again, an ugly proposition. Larue is not a long-term backup, even if re-signed. He does quite well as a "spell yadi once every five-to-seven days" guy. Odds are pags jr. or bryan anderson gets a long look should yadi hit the dl. Expecting more than replacement value there is wishful thinking, though the club has sent anderson to the AFL for winter work. See your local futureredbirds.net for AFL updates. [In an unrelated AFL story, the danup-mancrush curse strikes again. Derrek Goold tweets that Gary Daley gave up seven runs in one-third an inning for Surprise.]

Shortstop
Brendan Ryan (3.2 WAR)
Our months-long national nightmare was over when ryan took on the ss role this spring. His defense will not likely slump next year, but his bat could. I think he'll be a 2+ WAR player with his D, but doesn't walk enough to maintain value that doesn't rise and fall with his BABIP. Watch for falling wOBA next eleven months.

Depth
They call him Hoolio. Truth is his play was never that bad, theo epstein just couldn't take the way Lugo looked at him. Lugo's defense has become apallingly bad, eating up his decent offensive value. I have to think that julio: brendan:: larue: molina. Not too awful to make a spot start, but should brendan hit the DL, we should see tyler greene brought up. Tyler was a bit of an enigma this year. He hit very well at memphis, poorly at the ML level. UZR hated his defense, which was puzzling. I'm willing to chalk it up to SSS, but will eye it nervously next year.

Left field
Matt "Beltre'd" Holliday (2.8 WAR)
It's somewhat depressing that the fourth-most valuable cardinal only spent two months with the team. He's likely to be a 5-6 WAR player next year. He's already been discussed ad nauseam by mid-October, so that's all I've got to say about him. I do want to say something about a frequently discussed alternative. Please just say no to jason bay. While he might well be better than average, he is a prime candidate to be overpaid this offseason. He amassed over three WAR last year, his offensive value sapped by horrendous defense. His high-value MVP days are gone. Let another team tie themselves down to him and give up a first round pick.

Depth
One reason why I am so appalled by the Bay talk is that we have a couple of internal candidates who could be at least average - allen craig or (if healthy) joe mather. Anecdotal evidence says craig is decent in left, and mather was once a very decent defender (caution -- mather had a -9 TZR rating in his short time in RF in 2009). Jon Jay may get a look as LH depth/defensive substitute. Tyler Henley and DJ Tools are not far off - another reason not to tie the team down to a long contract for a just okay LF.

Center Field
Colby Rasmus AKA cody ramos AKA corky ramirez AKA boromir velazquez (2.3 WAR)
Razzle dazzle made the bigs and got a fair amount of playing time. His defense was all that was promised and his hitting . . . showed promise. Seriously, work out a little, bulk up, and try to find a good diet in the offseason, cody. i easily expect improvement next year. With a full season in center, we'd be looking at a 3 WAR player even with no offensive improvement.

Depth
Ugh. Um, jon jay, shane robinson. . . . Ludwick could cover CF in a pinch. Mather if healthy wouldn't be a disaster. Skippy is not a CF. Our depth here leaves something to be desired. A RH option who could face LHP in lieu of corey rundell would be a nice bonus.

Right Field
Ryan Ludwick (1.7 WAR)
Luddy had maybe the most perplexing season (unpleasant surprise division) of anyone. His season makes me feel like there's a certain element of futility to these crystal ball sessions. Hard to project and injury prone, I would expect him to rebound, but i say it with trepidation.

Depth
In the AAA championship game, brian barden played RF. Does that tell you what our RF depth is? Or what kind of confidence we have in craig's arm or jay's arm? Henley is our only real RF prospect - a decent one, but he's yet to even play a game for memphis. Another area of serious depth concern.

Second Base
Skip Schumaker (1.2 WAR)
Skippy adapted as well as could be expected, and better than I expected. The good news is that his defensive statistics match up with popular perception - appalling early in the season and close to average later on. The outlook for skippy is good - if he defends like he did at the end of the season he'd gain a full win in value over the course of 2010, which would make him average. Luckily, his offense has been consistent, so we can readily look for improvement. Skippy's dedication and hard work are admirable. I am accepting gloating letters, skip.

Depth
Hoolio is skippy's primary backup/platoon partner. To all accounts lugo's 2b defense is awful. His offense was quite good, but I doubt he turns in more than a one win performance in a platoon/utility role. Jarrett Hoffpauir seems to be english for julio lugo; terrible glove and good bat that only marginally offsets the other. Plus lugo brings the crazy eyes. daniel descalso is a good prospect but could not make his springfield success translate to memphis in a short aaa stint. He's also left-handed and won't be a platoon partner to skippy. We'll likely see him in 2011 barring more disappointment.

Third base
If you guessed that brian barden was the eighth most valuable player for the cards (a statisically insignificant fraction of a run better than derosa), you win. Third base in 2009 was a vast cauldron of suck where joe thurston reigned supreme at replacement value until the arrival of mark derosa and his amazing wrist that goes pop. That was the only thing going pop at third base after may day. Third base is clearly a spot for great improvement. Derosa as the 3b candidate awakens a great sense of "meh" in me. His two main virtues are a) playing subprime defense at several positions and b) hitting for some power. The former is likely to get more subprime from age. The latter could be hampered by his wrist injury.

The club shows no sign of interest in troy glaus. Assuming figgins goes back to the angels, beltre could be a prime FA target. david freese recently received Mo's benediction as the prime candidate (which probably means that spending cash will be directed at LF and the rotation). The good news is he'd probably defend like brian barden (+14.9 UZR; before citing sss to me, check barden's minor league defensive stats). The bad news is he may hit like barden too. odds are freese hits a little better and is about a 2 win player. For my money, if derosa is at best a win better than freese, I'd rather spend the 5-7M elsewhere and get the comp pick when he signs with the cubs for three years and $30m. That said, if we're not coughing up the money for Holliday, a hard charge after a FA 3B could be a good way to upgrade.

Depth
Freese is second string depth if he's not the starter. At some point, the club may have to swallow its misgivings and give craig a shot. Descalso could conceivably act as a third-string option, as could a healthy joe mather or a resigned brian barden. Otherwise . . . I give you joe thurston, ladies and gents.

>Exit, pursued by a bear.<

>Enters again, winded.<

I think the 2010 picture is not a bleak one, especially in the context of our division. I am most concerned about the depth, more than the starter any particular position. I don't see any starter who looks like a less-than-league-average type (count me a little skeptical about freese). While we're never going to have a replacement albert pujols on the shelf - nor should we aspire to that - more depth and particularly more flexibility could make this team much more competitive. 2009 should also be remembered as the year of the Dry Powder; our ability to forecast gaps on the squad from our vantage point in the off-season is limited. We should retain the organizational flexibility to make moves to address sudden needs that arise mid-season.

We have very poor outfield depth right now - I would guess craig and a healthy mather could approach league average. Jay is probably a less than average prospect with most of his value being defensive. Henley is hard to project with no time yet at AAA. That is why a player like Mike Cameron holds so much interest for me. A perennial 4 win player, he can play a corner respectably and could sub for an injured colby in center. We have poor RF depth, having few strong-armed outfielders. We can't go into 2010 without legit replacements at two OF positions while playiong two starters with injury histories.

The infield poses a similar, though not as dire, problem. Quite frankly, I just don't think lugo is good enough to be the infield backup. His defense is bad and his offense is likely to regress. Maybe his knee mends this off-season and his defense improves. But a good RH infielder to split time with skippy at second, hopefully one who could also backup the other infield spots, could save us a lot of heartache. tyler greene could be that guy if he learns some plate discipline. It kind of breaks my heart that derosa had his wrist injury because he could be a really good answer in that role. I just hate to throw money at an older player with a serious injury. Felipe Lopez could be another option, but he'll be very expensive coming off a career season. Unfortunately, the free agent market is parched in many of our areas of need, and our capacity to trade has taken a hit.

The need for depth and flexibility manifests itself in this fact: we lost a total of 2.7 WAR from sub-replacement value position players in 2009. More than half of that lost value came from Khalil Greene and Nick Stavinoha. By lacking appropriate replacement value players, the Cards lost the equivalent value of a better than replacement value player. Now, obviously almost any team is susceptible to having a sudden injury that leaves a less than desirable player in a key spot. Even the yankees caught a below-average performance from cody ransom (not related to our cody ransom) after a-rod got injured. but a deep team, managed well, would likely lose about a win to below replacement players. our lack of depth - and to a certain extent, mismanagement - cost us almost 3 wins. the good news is i don't see many khalil greenes or stavinohas getting a lot of playing time in 2010: lugo, tyler greene, and pagnozzi could be reasonable candidates to play at or below replacement value.

Thank you for reading this far. My apologies for any lack of flash. As I get accustomed to your fancy "tables" and your "icons" and your "twitters," I may get more adventurous in my layout. And I think I have preprogrammed this to appear early saturday. if this appears mid-friday afternoon or sunday evening or in the Sheboygan Daily Press, i'm probably doing it wrong. My apologies, good people of Sheboygan.

RISP myths and the 2009 Cards

tom s. — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:53:03 -0000

I really don't have any faith that anybody is really "clutch." I think clutch is more a myth than a real phenomenon. But recently -- and after a record-setting LOB game, unsurpisingly -- much muttering about poor performance with runners in scoring position has been heard. I wanted to throw some numbers out there.

The Cards as a whole have done well with RISP, hitting better with RISP (team OPS .764) than with no one on (.738) or with a man on first (.747).

Here are the stats with RISP for the top 19 players on the team -- below these 19 are only real bit players (e.g., Brian Barden) and pitchers.

1 Albert Pujols .361 .556 .697 1.253

2 Jarrett Hoffpauir.500 .667 .500 1.167

3 John Smoltz.500 .500 .500 1.000

4 Ryan Ludwick .323 .373 .582 .955

5 Khalil Greene .353 .419 .529 .948

6 Matt Holliday.317 .406 .512 .918

7 Nick Stavinoha .308 .333 .577 .910

8 Julio Lugo .250 .355 .417 .772

9 Joe Thurston .269 .390 .373 .763

10 Chris Duncan.231 .364 .397 .761

11 Yadier Molina .305 .404 .344 .748

12 Colby Rasmus .252 .304 .407 .710

13 Mark DeRosa .200 .345 .333 .678

14 Skip Schumaker.250 .353 .310 .663

15 Brendan Ryan .242 .302 .337 .639

16 Chris Carpenter .176 .222 .412 .634

17 Troy Glaus .222 .300 .333 .633

18 David Freese .286 .267 .357 .624

19 Rick Ankiel .194 .281 .245 .526

As you can see, our 3-4-5 hitters (Albert, Holliday, Luddy) have hit excellently with runners in scoring position. Even past those team leaders, lots of role players (molina, duncan, lugo) have hit reasonably well with RISP. Of the players with substantial playing time, only DeRosa, Schu, Ryan, and Ank have really disappointed.

Again, I am convinced that performance with RISP is more a sample size issue than anything else, but to say we haven't hit well with RISP is just not correct.

I can't find a month by month team split for RISP but our leading producers have done reasonably well in August and September. Ludwick had a weak Aug. (OBP .300/ SLG .296) but a good Sept. (.333/.536). Pujols had an okay Aug. (.452/.409) and a sick Sept. (.563/.952 - yes, that is a .952 SLG with RISP, not a typo). Holliday had the reverse, with an excellent Aug. (.341/.618) and an okay Sept. (.357/.405).

Anyway, there are some legit complaints about this team. Hitting with RISP is not one.

SHELBY MILLER IS A CARDINAL!

tom s. — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:04:13 -0000

The long awaited moment, via tweet (courtesy matt leach)

RT @JonathanMayoB3 Source tells me Shelby Miller has indeed agreed to terms with #stlards. No. 19 pick in #mlbdraft will indeed get $2.9 mil2 minutes ago from web

That's a little more than twice the slot. It's an exciting time to be a cards fan. The team had a very good draft this year. They signed a higher-ceiling pitcher than I can remember. They paid large sums for Wagner Mateo, as well.

Poll

Will Shelby Miller turn out to be:

a dud?

9 votes

a victim of injury?

17 votes

a high-velocity, no-control reliever?

36 votes

the next Cardinal Ace?

203 votes

265 votes | Poll has closed

Update on the 40-Man Roster

tom s. — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 02:03:39 -0000

As seen in a "Cardinal Nation" entry this February, the downside of having an excellent farm is having a crowded 40-man roster. I wanted to provide an update and look at the present state of the 40-man, as we consider the trade deadline. If you are unfamiliar with the intricacies of Rule V, wikipedia has a great article on the Rule.

40-Man Roster

Starters	Relievers	Infield	Outfield/Catcher
Carpenter	Franklin*	Pujols	Ankiel*
Wainwright	Motte	Schumaker	Ludwick
Lohse	McClellan	K. Greene*	Duncan
Pineiro*	Miller*	B. Ryan	Rasmus
Wellemeyer*	D. Reyes	Thurston**	Robinson**
Thompson**	Kinney	Barden**	Stavinoha**
M. Boggs	J. Todd	Glaus*	Mather
Mortensen	Hawksworth**	Freese	Molina
J. Garcia	Scherer**	Hoffpauir**	LaRue*
Walters		T. Greene	DeRosa*

* Indicates Free Agent After 2009 Season

** Indicates Potential for Removal from 40-Man Roster

Candidates for Eligible for Rule V Seizure

Starters	Relievers	Infield	Outfield/Catcher
Ottavino* (MEM)	Samuel (SPRF)*	A. Craig* (MEM)	B. Anderson* (MEM)
E. MacLane (MEM)	Furnish (PBCH)	J. Martinez (VSL)	D. Jones* (SPRF)
Garceau (PBCH)	Degerman (SPRF)	Hamilton* (MEM)	J. Jay* (MEM)
Norrick* (SPRF)	Daley (QC)	Rowlett (MEM)	I. Castro (BAT)
Mura (SPRF)	D. Carpenter (QC)	D. Bolivar (PBCH)	Marti (Cazana) (MXC)
Parisi (MEM)	Maiques (SPRF)	Solano (MEM)	Shorey (MEM)
Hearne (SPRF)	Ring (MEM)		Rapoport (SPRF)
Leach (BAT)	Parise (MEM)		J. Martinez (BAT)
O. Javier (GCL)	Ostlund (MEM)		Yarbrough (MEM)
Dickson (SPRF)	M. Gonzalez (SPRF)		Pagnozzi (MEM)*
E. Hernandez (PBCH)	Maekawa (MEM)		E. Gomez (GCL)
A. Rosales (BAT)	Manning (MEM)
J. Rada (JCTY)	O. Perez (MEM)

Prospects Likely to Land on the 40-Man Roster This Fall

1. Matt Pagnozzi: I will say it myself: huh? I put Pagnozzi first, not because he deserves it or because he needs protection, but because it is a practical certainty, in the absence of a trade, that he will be promoted to fill the fortieth spot on the roster for September. A third catcher is a common add in the September call-ups. Why the club has hung its hat on Pagnozzi as the next backup catcher is totally unclear. OTOH, Anderson hasn't helped his advocates make the case for him with his terrible 2009.

2. Daryl Jones: Sanity restored. Jones is our top prospect eligible for the Rule V draft this fall. Whether he makes an appearance at the big club in 2010 is an open question, and probably depends on his performance at ST next year. There's no doubt though that he would be gone by December if left unprotected.

3. Jon Jay: Coming back to earth after a heady 2008, Jay now gets more Skip Schumaker comps than Colby Rasmus-lites. Jay is a ++ defender in center. His transition to the majors will depend on his bat. But there's plenty of room for him as a fifth outfielder. Free career advice, Jon: learn to hit from the right side this winter.

4. Allen Craig: Also suffered from whatever offensive malaise afflicted the Redbirds in 2009. Didn't even get a chance at third this year; if not this year, likely never will. Could be in the LF mix next year; makes sense as a platoon partner with a healthy, effective Duncan. Wild card: does the management (with whom he seemed unpopular/invisible in admittedly a down year) see a role for him? If not, trade him soon, Moz.

5. Francisco Samuel: Fireballing reliever. Definite plus relief prospect. Could easily be taken without protection. Wild card: ptbnl in Derosa trade?

6. Adam Ottavino: His stock fell hard as he suffered at Memphis. A first-round 2006 draftee, the clock is ticking down for him. Still, deserves one more crack at the Memphis rotation before relegation to the bullpen. A struggling former first-round pick is too easily stashed at the back of a roster as a seventh reliever not to expect him to depart in the Rule V draft, especially after his WBC performance.

7. Bryan Anderson: How far the mighty have fallen! A top ten prospect last year, he fell off the high offensive mark he had set, though his defense continues to improve. Finally, he fell off the active roster entirely. At this point, is he even at risk of being taken in Rule V? While the taking team could stash him on the DL for a while, he still has to stay actively on the 25-man roster if taken under Rule V for much of the year. Few teams are going to carry three catchers, and no team is going to rely on a dicey-shouldered backup. Even though Anderson is far less attractive as a Rule V take than he was last year, he'll probably get protection this year.

8. Tyler Norrick: Some suggest he makes sense as a home-grown LH-reliever for 2010 or 2011. Combines poor command with a lot of strikeouts. Has a potential future as a role-player. Probably a reach to say he needs 40-man protection; an alternative would be to protect him on the Memphis roster, to prevent another team from placing him on their AAA roster.

9. Mark Hamilton: Dogged by injuries, Hamilton has finally put together a nice season, rising to Memphis in the last month. A bat guy, he doesn't figure highly in the ML club's plans, given that 1B is taken. Hamilton's upside is trade chip. If he can't be moved, he's at some minor risk of being taken, though all-bat-and-no-cattle types are pretty common in baseball. Can he play LF?

Worth a mention: Royce Ring - the only leftie reliever to impress at Memphis among the second-tier loogies (also includes: Manning, Ostlund, Maekawa) taken this past winter. Simply too low a ceiling to merit a spot. Ring's current and former teammate (in 2006 in the Mets system) starter Evan Maclane had a fine season at Memphis, but is on the "depth" not the "prospect" track. Donovan Solano is a SS at Memphis; good defense but has plate discipline like Tyler Greene without the power. Not going to translate to the majors without huge changes. Trey Hearne has had a decent year at Springfield; he should merit a promotion to the Memphis roster before the end of the year where he could only be taken by Rule V onto an ML roster (remember that Rule V requires only that AAA players be kept on the 25-man roster of the taking team; players on a AA roster or lower can be put in a higher level of the the taking team's minor league system). That should be enough protection for him. Shaun Garceau, while ranked on 2009 prospect charts, had a muscle tear/burst artery in his leg, has undergone several surgeries, and is out for the season. He should survive the Rule V draft unprotected for medical reasons. Amaury Cazana (nee Marti), while winning the hearts of HPG everywhere, has gone several drafts unprotected and should survive this one as well. Matt Parisi, coming back from TJ surgery, has fallen so far on the starting pitching depth chart that I can't see him attracting Rule V attention. Props to Eddie Degerman, Brad Furnish, Gary Daley, and many others for having such a terrible 2009 that no one will take them.

Free Agents (in order of likelihood of resigning)

1. Ryan Franklin: Barring tragic injury, the ink is already wet on this nine-lived pitcher's cheap 2010 option.

2. Joel Pineiro: The Cards could do much worse than sign Joel to a short extension.

3. Mark Derosa: A flexible 2B/3B/COF. Hey, those are all the positions where we are weak! And he's right-handed. If he comes back later this season with a healthy wrist, he's more likely to sign than Pineiro and could be a very good signing.

4. Trever Miller: Has been a fine loogy, as loogies go. Cheap to retain, but easily replaced.

5. Troy Glaus: Health is a big question mark. Outside chance of returning on a one-year for a discount or taking an arbitration offer.

6. Jason LaRue: Has done very well as a backup catcher. Probably time to move on.

7. Rick Ankiel: Probably done as a Cardinal.

8. Todd Wellemeyer: His terrible 2009 is probably unsalvageable. He will be lucky to still be starting this September, much less next April.

9. Khalil Greene: It's an open question whether he'll ever play again. We all wish you the best, Khalil. Get healthy.

Clearing Roster Space (in order of prefered demotion).

Note that any of these players can be removed from the 40-man in one of two ways. A player promoted to the 40-man the first time can be removed once by outrighting him to a minor league club. If the player has previously done a stint on a 40-man roster, he must pass through waivers to return to the minor league club. During that waiver process, any of the 29 other clubs may take him without giving anything in return.

1. Nick Stavinoha: Not even sure he ranks as replacement value.

2. Shane Robinson: Optimistically, a role-player; pessimistically, no major league role.

3. Brad Thompson: Despite a few nice starts, shows no real sign of becoming more than replacement level. Has fans in management, but makes little sense for a team developing numerous higher potential back-end starters.

4. Joe Thurston
5. Brian Barden
6. Jarrett Hoffpauir
Probably at least one infielder on this list is superfluous. Much will depend on their showings over the rest of the season. Uncertainty at 2B and 3B play in their favor, as does the right-handedness of two of the above candidates.

7. PTBNL: the second piece of the Derosa trade may be on the 40-man. Let's hope his initials aren't "JT".

8. Max Scherer: Consistent performer in Memphis, but has limited upside. Has such a low ceiling that if we had to make cuts, he'd be a candidate.

9. Blake Hawksworth: I would like to see him succeed, and I feel he could be a late bloomer. After many years in the minors, though, his "prospect" expiration date is looming. Any setbacks could jeopardize his roster spot.

Well, that was a lot of discussion. My best guess is that we have about six free agents who don't return, we cut about three names off the 40-man, and protect seven or eight guys, holding open two or three slots for free agents, our own rule V pick, or other promotions to the 40-man roster of players not at risk of rule V selection, like Wallace or Descalso or Henley.

The rotation and the rest of the year

tom s. — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 06:52:48 -0000

Notwithstanding the recent shellacking of the Cards at the hands of the Mets, the rotation this season has performed admirably. Much discussion has been had about making Todd Wellemeyer a member of the bullpen or the disabled list and promoting one of several starting candidates to fill his slot. Now that we're almost at the midpoint -- well, a couple starts short of the midpoint for the three pitchers who've not missed a start -- of the season, it seems time to take stock of what we have.

Name	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	tRA	tRA*	tRA+
Lohse	10	56.0	3.99	4.07	4.92	4.70	95
Carpenter	9	58.2	1.53	1.93	2.16	4.16	154
Wainwright	15	98.0	3.58	4.07	4.43	4.32	106
Pineiro	14	92.2	3.40	2.97	3.06	3.79	135
Wellemeyer	15	86.1	5.53	4.85	5.47	5.27	83

There's some stunning information here. These are our original five projected starters. What we have are basically two aces . . . and yes, one of them is Joel Pineiro. Lohse and Wainwright are turning in solid work and Wellemeyer is lagging far behind.

I want to first credit chuckb's post from December, which I admired greatly. I intended this to be an update of sorts from what we saw then.

Here, I'm trying to use old standbys (ERA) to establish a comfort level for folks who don't want to learn a new acronym every week; the established stathead measurement (FIP), and some of the interesting (though still controversial) data from statcorner. One of the criticisms for FIP is that it may undersell good pitch-to-contact types, since it ignores batted balls that don't go for home runs entirely. tRA seeks to be a next-gen FIP, trying to account some of the batted ball metrics. Now, tRA remains unproven. tRA addresses what the pitcher has actually done, while tRA* winnows out what the pitcher is actually responsible for (and hopefully what he will do in the future). Rather than further expose my ignorance on tRA, I will crib shamelessly from chuckb and give you links to a simple explanation and a complex one. tRA+ is a scaled metric like OPS+ to league average where league average is 100.

The reason we're interested in league average is because of Matt Carruth's article looking at what defines a role for pitchers -- e.g., is pitcher X a #2 or a #3 type pitcher? Recall as you consider these numbers that Carruth's numbers are 2008 standards applied to 2009 stats. I would not expect them to change tremendously year-by-year, but I imagine it is possible.

The average for an ace in 2008 was a tRA of 130 -- that means pineiro is comfortably an ace, and carp is . . . cy freaking young. granted it's only 9 starts, but this is amazing. looking back at chuckb's post, carp's tRA makes him better than every single free agent pitcher last year, including CC Sabathia . . . even better than just Sabathia's second half in Milwaukee! Okay, folks, let's all say it together: standing pat on what was last year a replacement-level pitcher and getting a pitcher that comes off the DL was like making TWO off-season trades for two aces without giving anything up . . . .

You know, it really is.

Wainwright is running a little behind last year -- right on the boundary line between being a #2 and a #3 by tRA+. Lohse is running a little ahead of his great year last year, and grades out right on the boundary between a #3 and a #4. Worth noting is that FIP likes them the same so far this year -- both are at a 4.07 FIP, well above the league average of 4.33. Wellemeyer is actually a quite decent #5 -- average tRA+ for #5's in 2008 was 76.

tRA* likes pineiro to regress . . . to something like aj burnett last year! on the other hand, the gap between his FIP and his ERA suggest that he's been a little unlucky. I'm guessing he'll regress somewhat, but it would be hard to complain about the results either way.

tRA* actually likes waino, welly, and lohse to IMPROVE modestly. The tRA* projection for carp is hard for me to understand -- i'm guessing it probably comes from assuming league average performance during years when he hardly pitched at all. I would just disregard carp's tRA* at this point.

the other open question here is health, as always. when will kyle come back? will he be healthy and effective? will carp stay healthy? will someone else go on the DL?

The sore thumb in this group in terms of quality of performance is Wellemeyer. He is the only one performing significantly below average. The question is whether we would be better off with somebody else. The next group to look at are the major league subs and the minor league cast (obviously, there's overlap here).

Thompson*	5	42.0	4.50	4.75	5.06	4.45	86
Boggs*	4	22.1	3.22	3.60	4.06	4.68	114
Hawksworth	0	6.2	5.40	5.60	4.37	4.42	101
PJ Walters*	1	12.1	8.76	6.95	3.50	4.69	125

*Please note that the ERA, FIP, and IP include relief pitching as well as starts, while the tRA, tRA*, and tRA+ are only for starts. Hawksworth's stats are all for relief, since he has not started a game in the bigs yet.

The sample size for basically all of these guys in the majors is too small to tell. So, let's also bring in their minor league stats, as well as those of the other memphis starters. These numbers actually tend to confuse the issue more, rather than pointing to a clear candidate

Thompson	3	15.2	3.45	3.07	4.13	5.15	120
Boggs	8	42.1	5.31	4.74	5.31	5.17	97
Hawksworth	10	62.0	3.92	3.20	3.74	4.86	128
PJ Walters	9	54.0	4.50	3.35	3.89	4.91	125
Ottavino	14	65.0	5.54	4.42	5.95	5.58	85
Mortensen	13	78.0	4.15	4.28	4.71	4.78	109

Thompson had 3 great starts at Memphis by traditional measures. However, tRA didn't like the starts as much, and tRA* HATED them. Boggs had a mixed set of eight starts, and he's got almost the same tRA* as Thompson. If you're inclined to credit tRA*, this suggests that a lot of Thompson's success at the AAA level was luck; his BABIP against in Memphis is .254 for 2009. On the other hand, he has pretty poor stats in the majors in 2009, and his BABIP against for St. Louis is .265.

The remaining non-Ottavino candidates -- the Hawk, walters, and mortensen -- have had quite good seasons at AAA. FIP really likes Walters and Hawksworth. I'm struck by the comparatively poor reviews Mort gets from all the non-traditional stats. I would have thought tRA would like him a lot more. If you'd asked me before looking, I would have called Mort the closest thing to an ace on staff. But you have to acknowledge that this is a great staff; only Ottavino is well below average.

tRA* doesn't clarify things either. Mort gets a modest edge over Walters and the Hawk. Thompson and Boggs get relatively poor marks.

Honestly, dealing with these small sample sizes at two different levels, I can say nothing based on these numbers about whether Todd should be replaced, or by whom -- except that the pride of Team Italia, Adam Ottavino, should not be allowed near the rotation this year. Wellemeyer is not sinking this ship, but there's some suggestion that any one of the other five Memphis candidates could hack it as a fifth starter and maybe do better. My personal non-numbers-based prejudice is that Thompson has historically faired poorly when asked to do more than spot-start. I would rather see one of the other four get a(nother) chance at starting. I will note that Boggs has a BABIP against of .386 at the major league level and is thus likely to do better in future outings, rather than worse. I think Boggs is probably our first candidate, but I think there's ammo here to support giving Walters another chance, or giving the Hawk or Mort a chance.

The last comment I would have is we need to think about what we do with pineiro at the end of the season, if he continues to pitch like an ace. He's having a career year, but not the classic "everything-is-falling-my-way" year. Instead, he's made a turn around in how he pitches - a dramatic one that clearly is responsible for his success. I can't even think about a comp for a pitcher who drastically changes his repetoire with great success in his age 30 season. How much do we trust that success to continue? What will the market be for him? Will he want to stay with Dave Duncan and take a pay cut to do so? Do we offer him a contract? Do we not offer him a contract but offer arbitration? This, ladies and gents, is a nice problem to have.

Game 30 Open Thread

tom s. — Fri, 08 May 2009 23:26:21 -0000

Cueto v. Pineiro

Can Pineiro keep up his sinking triumphs?

Rasmus starts in CF and bats second. Hooray!

Let's continue a long cards history of beating up on the Reds.

Carpenter had a good long toss session today.

Khalil Greene will show us whether his arm still works.

Maybe Shane Robinson will make a BABIP driven showing today.

Am I at 75 words yet?

Umm. Pujols has 11 home runs. Eleven! That's a lot.

Go Cards!!

Sickels on College Pitchers for Draft Day

tom s. — Tue, 05 May 2009 22:18:28 -0000

Sickels on College Pitchers for Draft Day

Knowing that the Cards regularly pick college pitchers in the draft, this is worth reviewing.

Here's the first volume.

Also look for Red Baron's draft posts on this site and periodic college pitcher updates on futureredbirds.net.

Picking up the pieces; or, Plan B from Memphis

tom s. — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 07:16:38 -0000

At this hour, we don't know if carpenter has a strained oblique, a torn oblique, or if several important muscle groups have just detached themselves from his ribcage.

but as my grandmother didn't say, god doesn't close a door unless he slams the window sill down on your fingers too.

so, who do we get to replace him? who is available?

our immediate option will be memphis. all you guys waiting on pedro martinez will have to wait a bit more, i think.

so rotation candidates at memphis are (all projections are CHONE)

clayton mortensen (projected ERA 5.36/FIP 5.31/K:BB 1.36)

mitch boggs (4.99/5.05/1.30)

adam ottavino (5.78/5.93/1.25)

pj walters (4.61/4.84/1.81)

and blake hawksworth (4.79/5.19/1.71)

jess todd, we can count too, if you like, though the club seems to think him destined for the bullpen, and has cleverly and with exceptional timing, removed him from the memphis rotation. (4.50/4.95/1.87)

for the sake of "fun" let's look at resident long man brad thompson (4.28/4.08/1.94). however, it's worth noting that in the season in which he was called on to start with regularity, he did not stand the extra inning load very well (2007: 4.73/5.96/1.33). his terrible FIP came mostly from giving away a free home run with every plate appearance. okay, we're done looking.

roster management point: boggs, the hawk, and mort are all on the 40-man. so adding them to the ML squad wouldn't take up a slot.

Boggs is probably the course of least resistance. Most known quantity. On the 40-man. But he has some of the worst projections and peripherals. We saw him last year and he was not particularly impressive.

Todd would probably be the best of the bunch, going by projections. But as mentioned, he is no longer stretched out as a starter. he appeared in relief on the 13th.

Walters seems like a good option here. he had a good spring, showing up with improved velocity.

who's fresh? mort pitched tonight. the hawk pitched last night. walters pitched the 11th, ottavino the night before that, and boggs on the ninth.

my humble suggestion: our bullpen is spent, our rotation has a gaping hole, our middle infield is overfull. send down ryan (yes, i know he's out of options) and motte. DL carpenter (i am assuming this is necessary). Call up perez, boggs, and walters. boggs and perez can eat innings tomorrow along with franklin if needed. prep walters for starting in carp's spot. this will free up some fresh-ish arms for the bullpen and provide a starter in carp's spot.

other options are worth considering, including sending down thompson or kinney instead of motte - though we would likely lose the optionless thompson. bringing up todd is definitely possible.

but it would sure suck to just surrender the relief innings tomorrow if pineiro isn't still drinking the same water as kyle lohse.