SB Nation User Blog: tom s.

The rotation and the rest of the year

tom s. — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 06:52:48 -0000

Notwithstanding the recent shellacking of the Cards at the hands of the Mets, the rotation this season has performed admirably. Much discussion has been had about making Todd Wellemeyer a member of the bullpen or the disabled list and promoting one of several starting candidates to fill his slot. Now that we're almost at the midpoint -- well, a couple starts short of the midpoint for the three pitchers who've not missed a start -- of the season, it seems time to take stock of what we have.

Name	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	tRA	tRA*	tRA+
Lohse	10	56.0	3.99	4.07	4.92	4.70	95
Carpenter	9	58.2	1.53	1.93	2.16	4.16	154
Wainwright	15	98.0	3.58	4.07	4.43	4.32	106
Pineiro	14	92.2	3.40	2.97	3.06	3.79	135
Wellemeyer	15	86.1	5.53	4.85	5.47	5.27	83

There's some stunning information here. These are our original five projected starters. What we have are basically two aces . . . and yes, one of them is Joel Pineiro. Lohse and Wainwright are turning in solid work and Wellemeyer is lagging far behind.

I want to first credit chuckb's post from December, which I admired greatly. I intended this to be an update of sorts from what we saw then.

Here, I'm trying to use old standbys (ERA) to establish a comfort level for folks who don't want to learn a new acronym every week; the established stathead measurement (FIP), and some of the interesting (though still controversial) data from statcorner. One of the criticisms for FIP is that it may undersell good pitch-to-contact types, since it ignores batted balls that don't go for home runs entirely. tRA seeks to be a next-gen FIP, trying to account some of the batted ball metrics. Now, tRA remains unproven. tRA addresses what the pitcher has actually done, while tRA* winnows out what the pitcher is actually responsible for (and hopefully what he will do in the future). Rather than further expose my ignorance on tRA, I will crib shamelessly from chuckb and give you links to a simple explanation and a complex one. tRA+ is a scaled metric like OPS+ to league average where league average is 100.

The reason we're interested in league average is because of Matt Carruth's article looking at what defines a role for pitchers -- e.g., is pitcher X a #2 or a #3 type pitcher? Recall as you consider these numbers that Carruth's numbers are 2008 standards applied to 2009 stats. I would not expect them to change tremendously year-by-year, but I imagine it is possible.

The average for an ace in 2008 was a tRA of 130 -- that means pineiro is comfortably an ace, and carp is . . . cy freaking young. granted it's only 9 starts, but this is amazing. looking back at chuckb's post, carp's tRA makes him better than every single free agent pitcher last year, including CC Sabathia . . . even better than just Sabathia's second half in Milwaukee! Okay, folks, let's all say it together: standing pat on what was last year a replacement-level pitcher and getting a pitcher that comes off the DL was like making TWO off-season trades for two aces without giving anything up . . . .

You know, it really is.

Wainwright is running a little behind last year -- right on the boundary line between being a #2 and a #3 by tRA+. Lohse is running a little ahead of his great year last year, and grades out right on the boundary between a #3 and a #4. Worth noting is that FIP likes them the same so far this year -- both are at a 4.07 FIP, well above the league average of 4.33. Wellemeyer is actually a quite decent #5 -- average tRA+ for #5's in 2008 was 76.

tRA* likes pineiro to regress . . . to something like aj burnett last year! on the other hand, the gap between his FIP and his ERA suggest that he's been a little unlucky. I'm guessing he'll regress somewhat, but it would be hard to complain about the results either way.

tRA* actually likes waino, welly, and lohse to IMPROVE modestly. The tRA* projection for carp is hard for me to understand -- i'm guessing it probably comes from assuming league average performance during years when he hardly pitched at all. I would just disregard carp's tRA* at this point.

the other open question here is health, as always. when will kyle come back? will he be healthy and effective? will carp stay healthy? will someone else go on the DL?

The sore thumb in this group in terms of quality of performance is Wellemeyer. He is the only one performing significantly below average. The question is whether we would be better off with somebody else. The next group to look at are the major league subs and the minor league cast (obviously, there's overlap here).

Thompson*	5	42.0	4.50	4.75	5.06	4.45	86
Boggs*	4	22.1	3.22	3.60	4.06	4.68	114
Hawksworth	0	6.2	5.40	5.60	4.37	4.42	101
PJ Walters*	1	12.1	8.76	6.95	3.50	4.69	125

*Please note that the ERA, FIP, and IP include relief pitching as well as starts, while the tRA, tRA*, and tRA+ are only for starts. Hawksworth's stats are all for relief, since he has not started a game in the bigs yet.

The sample size for basically all of these guys in the majors is too small to tell. So, let's also bring in their minor league stats, as well as those of the other memphis starters. These numbers actually tend to confuse the issue more, rather than pointing to a clear candidate

Thompson	3	15.2	3.45	3.07	4.13	5.15	120
Boggs	8	42.1	5.31	4.74	5.31	5.17	97
Hawksworth	10	62.0	3.92	3.20	3.74	4.86	128
PJ Walters	9	54.0	4.50	3.35	3.89	4.91	125
Ottavino	14	65.0	5.54	4.42	5.95	5.58	85
Mortensen	13	78.0	4.15	4.28	4.71	4.78	109

Thompson had 3 great starts at Memphis by traditional measures. However, tRA didn't like the starts as much, and tRA* HATED them. Boggs had a mixed set of eight starts, and he's got almost the same tRA* as Thompson. If you're inclined to credit tRA*, this suggests that a lot of Thompson's success at the AAA level was luck; his BABIP against in Memphis is .254 for 2009. On the other hand, he has pretty poor stats in the majors in 2009, and his BABIP against for St. Louis is .265.

The remaining non-Ottavino candidates -- the Hawk, walters, and mortensen -- have had quite good seasons at AAA. FIP really likes Walters and Hawksworth. I'm struck by the comparatively poor reviews Mort gets from all the non-traditional stats. I would have thought tRA would like him a lot more. If you'd asked me before looking, I would have called Mort the closest thing to an ace on staff. But you have to acknowledge that this is a great staff; only Ottavino is well below average.

tRA* doesn't clarify things either. Mort gets a modest edge over Walters and the Hawk. Thompson and Boggs get relatively poor marks.

Honestly, dealing with these small sample sizes at two different levels, I can say nothing based on these numbers about whether Todd should be replaced, or by whom -- except that the pride of Team Italia, Adam Ottavino, should not be allowed near the rotation this year. Wellemeyer is not sinking this ship, but there's some suggestion that any one of the other five Memphis candidates could hack it as a fifth starter and maybe do better. My personal non-numbers-based prejudice is that Thompson has historically faired poorly when asked to do more than spot-start. I would rather see one of the other four get a(nother) chance at starting. I will note that Boggs has a BABIP against of .386 at the major league level and is thus likely to do better in future outings, rather than worse. I think Boggs is probably our first candidate, but I think there's ammo here to support giving Walters another chance, or giving the Hawk or Mort a chance.

The last comment I would have is we need to think about what we do with pineiro at the end of the season, if he continues to pitch like an ace. He's having a career year, but not the classic "everything-is-falling-my-way" year. Instead, he's made a turn around in how he pitches - a dramatic one that clearly is responsible for his success. I can't even think about a comp for a pitcher who drastically changes his repetoire with great success in his age 30 season. How much do we trust that success to continue? What will the market be for him? Will he want to stay with Dave Duncan and take a pay cut to do so? Do we offer him a contract? Do we not offer him a contract but offer arbitration? This, ladies and gents, is a nice problem to have.

Game 30 Open Thread

tom s. — Fri, 08 May 2009 23:26:21 -0000

Cueto v. Pineiro

Can Pineiro keep up his sinking triumphs?

Rasmus starts in CF and bats second. Hooray!

Let's continue a long cards history of beating up on the Reds.

Carpenter had a good long toss session today.

Khalil Greene will show us whether his arm still works.

Maybe Shane Robinson will make a BABIP driven showing today.

Am I at 75 words yet?

Umm. Pujols has 11 home runs. Eleven! That's a lot.

Go Cards!!

Sickels on College Pitchers for Draft Day

tom s. — Tue, 05 May 2009 22:18:28 -0000

Sickels on College Pitchers for Draft Day

Knowing that the Cards regularly pick college pitchers in the draft, this is worth reviewing.

Here's the first volume.

Also look for Red Baron's draft posts on this site and periodic college pitcher updates on futureredbirds.net.

Picking up the pieces; or, Plan B from Memphis

tom s. — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 07:16:38 -0000

At this hour, we don't know if carpenter has a strained oblique, a torn oblique, or if several important muscle groups have just detached themselves from his ribcage.

but as my grandmother didn't say, god doesn't close a door unless he slams the window sill down on your fingers too.

so, who do we get to replace him? who is available?

our immediate option will be memphis. all you guys waiting on pedro martinez will have to wait a bit more, i think.

so rotation candidates at memphis are (all projections are CHONE)

clayton mortensen (projected ERA 5.36/FIP 5.31/K:BB 1.36)

mitch boggs (4.99/5.05/1.30)

adam ottavino (5.78/5.93/1.25)

pj walters (4.61/4.84/1.81)

and blake hawksworth (4.79/5.19/1.71)

jess todd, we can count too, if you like, though the club seems to think him destined for the bullpen, and has cleverly and with exceptional timing, removed him from the memphis rotation. (4.50/4.95/1.87)

for the sake of "fun" let's look at resident long man brad thompson (4.28/4.08/1.94). however, it's worth noting that in the season in which he was called on to start with regularity, he did not stand the extra inning load very well (2007: 4.73/5.96/1.33). his terrible FIP came mostly from giving away a free home run with every plate appearance. okay, we're done looking.

roster management point: boggs, the hawk, and mort are all on the 40-man. so adding them to the ML squad wouldn't take up a slot.

Boggs is probably the course of least resistance. Most known quantity. On the 40-man. But he has some of the worst projections and peripherals. We saw him last year and he was not particularly impressive.

Todd would probably be the best of the bunch, going by projections. But as mentioned, he is no longer stretched out as a starter. he appeared in relief on the 13th.

Walters seems like a good option here. he had a good spring, showing up with improved velocity.

who's fresh? mort pitched tonight. the hawk pitched last night. walters pitched the 11th, ottavino the night before that, and boggs on the ninth.

my humble suggestion: our bullpen is spent, our rotation has a gaping hole, our middle infield is overfull. send down ryan (yes, i know he's out of options) and motte. DL carpenter (i am assuming this is necessary). Call up perez, boggs, and walters. boggs and perez can eat innings tomorrow along with franklin if needed. prep walters for starting in carp's spot. this will free up some fresh-ish arms for the bullpen and provide a starter in carp's spot.

other options are worth considering, including sending down thompson or kinney instead of motte - though we would likely lose the optionless thompson. bringing up todd is definitely possible.

but it would sure suck to just surrender the relief innings tomorrow if pineiro isn't still drinking the same water as kyle lohse.

Carp's awesomeness quantified.

tom s. — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 22:19:21 -0000

Carp's awesomeness quantified.

Since we can only watch carp every five days, here he is in pretty colorful charts for your enjoyment.

wallace bends bat; craig breaks it.

tom s. — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 20:15:44 -0000

wallace bends bat; craig breaks it.

absolutely sick. photographer says: "Over the years I have only captured two other Big Leaguers that you can see the bat bend during their swing, Scott Rolen & Albert Pujols."

also see craig breaking his bat in a team dominicana uniform.

wanted to post this as an image and SBNation doesn't like the URL. Credit to Scott Rovak for his great work and visit his site.

TLR -- Enabler of PEDs?

tom s. — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 02:07:46 -0000

TLR -- Enabler of PEDs?

I had long wondered when we would hear substantial criticism of TLR for just being associated with too many high profile juicers. interesting article.

Rule five draft links - Draft is Thursday!

tom s. — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 07:46:46 -0000

Rule five draft links - Draft is Thursday!

see also: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/12/the_2008_draft.php

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/11/the_2008_rule_5.php

The "impact bat" protection myth

tom s. — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:51:52 -0000

I started this as a reply to Lboros' great post and it became something bigger. i hope this is helpful, and I hope i am not just reiterating prior points.

lboros pointed out that we don't need 'protection' for Albert, since we now have 4 guys hitting 25 HR. Lack of power is not an issue. Also, in 2009, Ryan Ludwick is much more likely to get the fear and respect from pitchers that Tony is looking for in that slot because he has that year under his belt and will be recognized.

if you look at how albert drives in runs, a real impact bat would be someone (or better yet, two players) with high OBP in the leadoff and number two slots.

consider this: of Albert's 553 PA this season, 282 PA took place with nobody on base and 120 with only a man on first. With RISP, he has hit 58 RBI, but only 6 HR -- meaning that he drove in other players 52 times. He has 19 solo HR. With a man on first, he has 14 RBI with 5 hr, driving in the man on first only 9 times out of 120! And it's not because he's always being walked -- he has only 12 walks with a man on first. If we want Albert to manufacture runs, we need to get runners in scoring position in FRONT of him.

                           OBP/SLG v. RHP            OBP/SLG v. LHP
Bases empty         .423/.665                          .478/.726
Man on 1st             .402/.473                          .564/.750
RISP                       .536/.623                         .512/.615

Clearly he's not struggling against LHP, no matter the situation. But against right-handers without a runner in scoring position, he struggles (at least on the adjusted Albert scale). His OBP is comparatively low against RHP with either the bases empty or with a man on first. His slugging bumps up a bit with nobody on, probably because the pitchers are most likely to challenge him with nobody on, and thus the 19 solo HR.

so where does that leave us? I looked at OBP as the target stat -- notwithstanding the fact that pujols's stats get worse with a runner on first. Putting two candidates with good obp one after the other enhances the likelihood of getting two men on. getting just one man in scoring position usually gets albert walked -- not bad, just not immediately manufacturing the run. Albert has 20 RBIs with men on first and second, in only 45 PAs.

Our leadoff slot has an OBP of .350 and our number two's OBP is .353. Under production there is keeping Albert from driving in runs, and even getting on base.

skip did his part in the leadoff with a .370 obp; barton had the next most PA's at leadoff, pulling in an impressive .377 obp. The stinker up front was cesar -- with 50 chances at leadoff izturis brought in .300 obp.

in the 2 slot, miles was wicked with a .386, ludwick incredible with a .391. ankiel stank the joint up with a paltry .295 obp in 78 chances. i don't have a B-R subscription to see the splits for duncan (they only give the top three hitters in terms of pa to non-subscribers), but i will note he has a respectable .346 obp for the season, before anybody blames the weak numbers there on him.

as for the off-season: well, who are possibly available names w/ high obp?

milton bradley got mentioned as a target (.446!). Matt Holiday (whose home/away splits are a respectable .440/.394). Brian roberts (.377). Ian Kinsler (.375). Orlando hudson (.367). some of these guys project more like the power hitters tony mentions, but some of them might work as number twos. some might bump ludwick up to the two slot (where he did great).

In fact, to close out this post, the best argument for why we should get an "impact bat" because albert needs protection, but because ludwick is a hell of a number two batter (OPS - 1.069 in 2 slot, but .992 in cleanup). Ludwick would be one of the best candidates in the ML to generate runs in front of Pujols. Ankiel would be an our best in-house replacement at cleanup (OPS .851) but probably fits better as a 5 or 6 batter. So, we could look either look for a good leadoff bat and a good number two, or for a power bat for cleanup and a lead-off type SS/2b, and just bump ludwick up to the two slot.

Dave Duncan and the HOF

tom s. — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 04:25:38 -0000

This blurb in the NY Times caught my eye and got me thinking about coaches and the hall of fame, and Dave Duncan and the Hall of Fame particularly. The Times compared a recent HOF inductee as a manager to TLR and Bobby Cox. Then, they raised the issue of pitching coaches.

"What will make their candidacies interesting is that each has had a large part of his success tied to a single pitching coach — Dave Duncan for La Russa and Leo Mazzone for Cox. If La Russa or Cox is eventually inducted, it will raise the question over why their coaches, or any coaches, have not been elected to the Hall of Fame.

"Mazzone’s stock in the eyes of the baseball world has fallen some since his failed stint coaching for the Orioles, but Duncan is once again being recognized as the pitching coach who can revitalize a struggling career.

"Among his many success stories are the drastic turnarounds of Dave Stewart, Bob Welch, Chris Carpenter and Darryl Kile. That has continued this season with the progress of Braden Looper and the emergence of Kyle Lohse as a quality starting pitcher.

"Before working with Duncan, Lohse had a career record of 63-74 with a 4.82 E.R.A. By reducing the number of base runners he has allowed, Lohse has lowered his E.R.A. to 3.35. His record is 12-2 entering Sunday’s scheduled start.

"There is currently no provision for a coach to be elected to the Hall, but there is a decent argument that without Duncan, La Russa would probably not be going, either."

What do you all think? Should coaches be allowed in the HOF? If so, should Duncan? Who are the pitchers he has turned around most dramatically? I can't personally think of a man who presents a better case for allowing coaches into the HOF.