SB Nation User Blog: tom slick

Tony Gonzalez. NAKED. Seriously!

tom slick — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:54:48 -0000

Tony Gonzalez. NAKED. Seriously!

Here's a treat for those who like Tony Gonzalez. I mean, REALLY like him...

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 9

tom slick — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:45:34 -0000

Here's this week's serving of "Original Recipe" Ratings, with generous side dishes of Huh? and WTF? at no charge! And away we go...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.4	Patriots	6-2-0	28.1	14.4	0.846	0.963	1.809
2	89.1	Colts	8-0-0	27.1	13.5	0.804	0.977	1.781
3	77.8	Eagles	5-3-0	27.4	19.1	0.815	0.742	1.557
4	77.8	Cowboys	6-2-0	27.1	19.0	0.804	0.751	1.555
5	75.9	Steelers	6-2-0	24.4	17.4	0.661	0.857	1.518
6	75.1	Saints	8-0-0	37.9	21.8	0.995	0.507	1.502
7	73.5	Ravens	4-4-0	25.8	19.3	0.737	0.732	1.469
8	71.4	Bengals	6-2-0	22.5	16.9	0.545	0.883	1.428
9	71.3	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	0.919	0.507	1.426
10	70.5	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	0.521	0.889	1.410
11	66.2	Packers	4-4-0	26.9	21.5	0.793	0.531	1.324
12	65.6	Falcons	5-3-0	25.3	20.8	0.711	0.602	1.312
13	65.4	Cardinals	5-3-0	24.8	20.5	0.683	0.625	1.307
14	62.4	Broncos	6-2-0	18.8	15.5	0.312	0.936	1.248
15	61.0	Texans	5-4-0	23.9	20.9	0.632	0.589	1.220
16	59.2	Chargers	5-3-0	25.8	22.4	0.737	0.447	1.185
17	57.9	Giants	5-4-0	25.8	22.7	0.739	0.420	1.158
18	51.6	Seahawks	3-5-0	20.9	20.9	0.441	0.590	1.031
19	50.2	49ers	3-5-0	21.8	21.8	0.497	0.507	1.004
20	42.8	Bears	4-4-0	22.5	23.9	0.545	0.311	0.856
21	42.0	Redskins	2-6-0	14.1	19.3	0.109	0.732	0.840
22	41.7	Dolphins	3-5-0	24.1	25.5	0.646	0.188	0.834
23	35.9	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	0.151	0.567	0.717
24	30.2	Jaguars	4-4-0	19.6	24.8	0.363	0.241	0.604
25	27.9	Panthers	3-5-0	18.5	24.5	0.298	0.260	0.558
26	17.3	Chiefs	1-7-0	15.8	25.6	0.165	0.180	0.346
27	16.3	Titans	2-6-0	18.5	29.8	0.298	0.028	0.326
28	12.7	Buccaneers	1-7-0	16.8	28.9	0.208	0.045	0.253
29	12.0	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	0.026	0.214	0.240
30	11.7	Lions	1-7-0	16.6	29.6	0.203	0.030	0.233
31	8.8	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	0.026	0.151	0.177
32	5.3	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	0.025	0.082	0.107
			means =	21.8	21.8

The volatility of the overall rankings was markedly less this week. The most any team moved up was 3 slots (Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs). Packers fell 5 spots, no one else close. The Saints still get no love from these ratings. Although their scoring D appears statistically average, they've scored 7 defensive TDs that get credited here to the offense! Life's not fair, Mom! A little surprising to see the Pats ranked on top, though the formula loves that "balance" stuff.

That's it for Week 9, esteemed readers. Remember this is simple math-driven Fun With Numbers, and enjoy. Hopefully you may even glean a pearl of wisdom or two! You can download the spreadsheet here if you wish to play with the numbers. Cheers!

Professor Frink Wants YOU!

tom slick — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:26:22 -0000

via i38.tinypic.com

Actually, I need your opinions, my good people.

Despite having been happy with my old rating algorithm for some years, I'm not quite as happy these days. I've discovered that when you publish something for all to see, you have a lot less margin for error. As much as I like the simplicity of my spreadsheet, I think I can do a little better.

My main concern is that the existing method overly penalizes winning teams like the Saints, who are outstanding on one side of the ball but mediocre on the other. To rank them in 7th place is IMO something that should probably be addressed. Last year, for example, the Steelers won the Super Bowl with a subpar offense and a great defense. So far this year, 3 of the 4 winningest teams have a below average defense (or offense). If this trend is the new reality in the NFL, I'd rather change than stubbornly stick with something that's worked in the past, but not quite as well now.

At the risk of getting too cute with a simple process, I'm thinking of adding a couple of new variables to the formula. Winning percentage is one measure of a team's quality that is undeniably relevant, as is Point Differential. Rather than weighing offense and defense at 50% apiece, my new mix would be:

Offense (curved, as before), 25%

Defense (curved), 25%

Point Differential per Game (curved), 25%

Winning Percentage, 25%.

Here are what the Week 8 rankings would look like using the new algorithm:

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	DIFF/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Differential Rating
1	93.7	Colts	7-0-0	28.1	13.0	15.1	0.829	0.978	0.941
2	86.0	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0	14.3	0.834	0.962	0.929
3	85.5	Saints	7-0-0	39.0	22.0	17.0	0.995	0.465	0.960
4	78.8	Eagles	5-2-0	29.0	19.0	10.0	0.859	0.729	0.847
5	77.0	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	8.8	0.903	0.488	0.815
6	76.3	Cowboys	5-2-0	28.1	19.4	8.7	0.829	0.695	0.814
7	74.0	Broncos	6-1-0	20.0	13.7	6.3	0.396	0.967	0.738
8	72.8	Ravens	4-3-0	28.4	19.6	8.9	0.839	0.684	0.818
9	71.0	Packers	4-3-0	26.7	19.1	7.6	0.769	0.718	0.780
10	70.4	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4	5.4	0.622	0.772	0.709
11	69.4	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3	5.0	0.589	0.781	0.693
12	65.0	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	5.4	0.521	0.872	0.707
13	62.5	Texans	5-3-0	24.8	21.0	3.8	0.671	0.558	0.646
14	60.3	Giants	5-3-0	26.5	22.9	3.6	0.759	0.385	0.641
15	59.5	Falcons	4-3-0	24.4	21.3	3.1	0.654	0.531	0.622
16	59.3	Chargers	4-3-0	26.4	22.7	3.7	0.756	0.400	0.645
17	57.4	Cardinals	4-3-0	22.4	20.4	2.0	0.539	0.610	0.576
18	54.8	Bears	4-3-0	22.7	21.4	1.3	0.556	0.518	0.547
19	51.6	49ers	3-4-0	21.0	20.0	1.0	0.454	0.647	0.535
20	45.1	Dolphins	3-4-0	25.1	25.3	-0.1	0.692	0.197	0.488
21	40.5	Seahawks	2-5-0	19.3	21.0	-1.7	0.355	0.558	0.423
22	39.2	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6	-3.9	0.115	0.827	0.338
23	34.0	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	-5.8	0.170	0.546	0.270
24	33.1	Panthers	3-4-0	18.3	23.7	-5.4	0.302	0.313	0.281
25	30.4	Jaguars	3-4-0	19.0	25.3	-6.3	0.340	0.197	0.251
26	14.7	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9	-10.9	0.156	0.162	0.126
27	13.7	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	-15.4	0.037	0.207	0.053
28	11.6	Lions	1-6-0	16.1	29.3	-13.1	0.201	0.037	0.083
29	11.1	Titans	1-6-0	16.3	30.1	-13.9	0.207	0.024	0.072
30	8.8	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	-16.4	0.037	0.147	0.043
31	6.8	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	-18.0	0.035	0.081	0.029
32	5.3	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0	-15.3	0.115	0.043	0.054

(I omitted Win% from the table due to space and readabilty considerations, but it does figure into the final ratings.)

Though hardly perfect by any means, this version seems to "smell" somewhat better, at least to me.

Since I publish this for your amusement, kind readers, I would appreciate YOUR feedback on this momentous issue. Do the results seem more realistic this way? Does the added complexity strike anyone as a negative? If so, is that negative outweighed by better results?

Like Linus waiting for the Great Pumpkin, I look forward to any constructive remarks youse guys have to offer. Thanks, everyone!

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 8

tom slick — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:52:05 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Brace yourself for some provocative Week 8 numbers. Have fun!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't supposed to be a perfect reflection of the real world, so don't take them too seriously! It is interesting how such a crude algorithm can be as accurate as it is, though.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the population of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale to make them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.3	Colts	7-0-0	28.1	13.0	0.829	0.978	1.806
2	89.8	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0	0.834	0.962	1.796
3	79.4	Eagles	5-2-0	29.0	19.0	0.859	0.729	1.588
4	76.2	Cowboys	5-2-0	28.1	19.4	0.829	0.695	1.524
5	76.1	Ravens	4-3-0	28.4	19.6	0.839	0.684	1.523
6	74.4	Packers	4-3-0	26.7	19.1	0.769	0.718	1.487
7	73.0	Saints	7-0-0	39.0	22.0	0.995	0.465	1.460
8	69.7	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4	0.622	0.772	1.393
9	69.6	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	0.521	0.872	1.393
10	69.6	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	0.903	0.488	1.391
11	68.5	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3	0.589	0.781	1.371
12	68.1	Broncos	6-1-0	20.0	13.7	0.396	0.967	1.363
13	61.4	Texans	5-3-0	24.8	21.0	0.671	0.558	1.229
14	59.3	Falcons	4-3-0	24.4	21.3	0.654	0.531	1.185
15	57.8	Chargers	4-3-0	26.4	22.7	0.756	0.400	1.156
16	57.4	Cardinals	4-3-0	22.4	20.4	0.539	0.610	1.148
17	57.2	Giants	5-3-0	26.5	22.9	0.759	0.385	1.145
18	55.1	49ers	3-4-0	21.0	20.0	0.454	0.647	1.101
19	53.7	Bears	4-3-0	22.7	21.4	0.556	0.518	1.074
20	47.1	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6	0.115	0.827	0.942
21	45.7	Seahawks	2-5-0	19.3	21.0	0.355	0.558	0.913
22	44.4	Dolphins	3-4-0	25.1	25.3	0.692	0.197	0.889
23	35.8	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	0.170	0.546	0.716
24	30.7	Panthers	3-4-0	18.3	23.7	0.302	0.313	0.615
25	26.8	Jaguars	3-4-0	19.0	25.3	0.340	0.197	0.537
26	15.9	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9	0.156	0.162	0.318
27	12.2	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	0.037	0.207	0.244
28	11.9	Lions	1-6-0	16.1	29.3	0.201	0.037	0.238
29	11.5	Titans	1-6-0	16.3	30.1	0.207	0.024	0.230
30	9.2	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	0.037	0.147	0.184
31	7.9	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0	0.115	0.043	0.158
32	5.8	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	0.035	0.081	0.116
			means =	21.8	21.6
		Means may not match until all teams have played the same number of games.

Crazy looking numbers, you say? After kicking the Gamble-Tron 2000 and recalibrating the Frinkometer, they actually make some sense when you consider how the algorithm works.

Look at the Saints, Vikings, and Broncos. Every one of those teams is great on one side of the ball and below average on the other. Mathematically, these 3 teams cannot exceed a Power Rating of 75 as long as they remain below average on that one side of the ball. I'm not saying it's just and fair, but it IS how the math shakes out. If you remove those three turds from the punch bowl, the ratings look a lot more plausible.

Just for fun and a semi-reality check, let's look at teams ranked by Point Differential per Game (DIFF/G), instead. It's a most useful stat that correlates very highly with winning percentage.

Rank	DIFF/G		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G
1	17.0	Saints	7-0-0	39.0	22.0
2	15.1	Colts	7-0-0	28.1	13.0
3	14.3	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0
4	10.0	Eagles	5-2-0	29.0	19.0
5	8.9	Ravens	4-3-0	28.4	19.6
6	8.8	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8
7	8.7	Cowboys	5-2-0	28.1	19.4
8	7.6	Packers	4-3-0	26.7	19.1
9	6.3	Broncos	6-1-0	20.0	13.7
10	5.4	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4
11	5.4	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8
12	5.0	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3
13	3.8	Texans	5-3-0	24.8	21.0
14	3.7	Chargers	4-3-0	26.4	22.7
15	3.6	Giants	5-3-0	26.5	22.9
16	3.1	Falcons	4-3-0	24.4	21.3
17	2.0	Cardinals	4-3-0	22.4	20.4
18	1.3	Bears	4-3-0	22.7	21.4
19	1.0	49ers	3-4-0	21.0	20.0
20	-0.1	Dolphins	3-4-0	25.1	25.3
21	-1.7	Seahawks	2-5-0	19.3	21.0
22	-3.9	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6
23	-5.4	Panthers	3-4-0	18.3	23.7
24	-5.8	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1
25	-6.3	Jaguars	3-4-0	19.0	25.3
26	-10.9	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9
27	-13.1	Lions	1-6-0	16.1	29.3
28	-13.9	Titans	1-6-0	16.3	30.1
29	-15.3	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0
30	-15.4	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1
31	-16.4	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1
32	-18.0	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6

Interesting that the Vikings and Broncos don't exactly dazzle using this yardstick, either. The 4-3 Ravens and Packers are in the top 8 using both methods as well. I'm just guessing, but I betcha Saints fans prefer this latter ranking. What a spread there!

Coming back to Power Rankings, the Ravens rose 9 spots; the Cowboys and Texans rose 6. Teams with the largest declines were the Giants, 9 slots, and Broncos, down 7.

That's all folks! Remember that this is simple, math-driven Fun With Numbers. Feedback is welcome, but please don't comment just to gripe about where your team's rated; the algorithm plays no favorites. You can download the spreadsheet here if you like playing with the numbers. Cheers!

Falcons-Cowboys most watched sporting event since Super Bowl

tom slick — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 23:25:27 -0000

Falcons-Cowboys most watched sporting event since Super Bowl

If this is true, it speaks volumes about the NFL's popularity relative to MLB and the NBA.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 7

tom slick — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:10:33 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Fresh from the Gamble-Tron 2000, the Week 7 ratings await your perusal. Enjoy!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (for the uninitiated):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't supposed to be a perfect reflection of the real world, don't take them too seriously. It's interesting, though, that such a crude algorithm can be as accurate as I've seen it be over the last few years.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the population of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale to make them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	91.9	Colts	6-0-0	29.8	12.8	0.884	0.953	1.837
2	88.0	Patriots	5-2-0	28.3	14.0	0.834	0.926	1.760
3	81.6	Packers	4-2-0	26.8	16.0	0.776	0.856	1.631
4	75.9	Saints	6-0-0	39.7	21.2	0.996	0.522	1.518
5	75.4	Broncos	6-0-0	22.2	11.0	0.530	0.979	1.509
6	72.5	Eagles	4-2-0	27.2	19.3	0.790	0.660	1.450
7	70.2	Jets	4-3-0	21.7	14.9	0.504	0.900	1.404
8	69.8	Giants	5-2-0	27.9	20.4	0.818	0.579	1.397
9	69.8	Vikings	6-1-0	29.4	21.1	0.872	0.524	1.396
10	69.2	Cowboys	4-2-0	26.5	19.8	0.761	0.624	1.384
11	67.4	Steelers	5-2-0	23.9	18.4	0.626	0.722	1.348
12	66.3	Bengals	5-2-0	23.3	18.3	0.594	0.731	1.325
13	65.9	Falcons	4-2-0	24.0	19.0	0.634	0.683	1.318
14	65.7	Ravens	3-3-0	28.2	21.7	0.830	0.483	1.313
15	64.9	Cardinals	4-2-0	22.7	18.2	0.559	0.739	1.298
16	56.2	Seahawks	2-4-0	19.7	18.2	0.386	0.739	1.124
17	55.8	49ers	3-3-0	22.2	20.3	0.530	0.586	1.116
18	54.9	Chargers	3-3-0	26.8	23.8	0.776	0.322	1.097
19	52.0	Texans	4-3-0	23.9	22.6	0.626	0.414	1.040
20	44.9	Redskins	2-5-0	13.7	17.6	0.123	0.775	0.898
21	43.9	Dolphins	2-4-0	24.3	25.3	0.652	0.225	0.878
22	42.1	Bills	3-4-0	16.1	19.7	0.210	0.632	0.843
23	40.1	Bears	3-3-0	21.5	24.0	0.491	0.310	0.801
24	34.1	Jaguars	3-3-0	20.0	24.5	0.404	0.277	0.681
25	24.5	Panthers	2-4-0	15.7	24.2	0.191	0.299	0.490
26	18.1	Chiefs	1-6-0	15.0	25.9	0.165	0.196	0.361
27	14.2	Lions	1-5-0	17.2	31.3	0.256	0.027	0.283
28	13.0	Browns	1-6-0	10.3	25.6	0.048	0.212	0.260
29	12.9	Raiders	2-5-0	8.9	25.3	0.031	0.228	0.259
30	9.7	Buccaneers	0-7-0	13.7	29.0	0.123	0.071	0.194
31	7.2	Titans	0-6-0	14.0	33.0	0.132	0.012	0.144
32	3.7	Rams	0-7-0	8.6	30.1	0.028	0.046	0.073
			means =	21.7	21.5
		Means may not match until all teams have played the same number of games.

What's up with the (cough) beloved Saints? Despite winning, they fell to 4th place! How can this be, you ask? The Saints are a textbook example of how this algorithm skews the numbers. Despite being about as good as an offense can be, the defense is the very embodiment of "average" (by the numbers at least). This effectively puts a cap on their power rating of about 75 or so. The Broncos are a mirror image of the Saints, with the emphasis on defense in their case. Note the teams above them all have a more favorable balance of O and D.

Teams on the rise were led by the Jets (the turd in this week's punchbowl) and Bengals, up 7 slots. Falling furthest were the Falcons (groan) and Bears, down 9 slots.

Hope y'all enjoy, you heah? Your Falcoholic feedback is welcome. You can download the spreadsheet here. Cheers!

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 6

tom slick — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:56:49 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Here's this week's summary, for your viewing pleasure. Now featuring even more columns of hot, tasty data! Ratings and other details await you ahead.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. (In trying to be brief, I didn't explain this too well last week; I beg your pardon if I'm overly verbose this time.) The first step is to calculate Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. Easy enough; here's the statistics geek part. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that curve, they have a value between 0 and 1. The purpose of this is to more accurately measure each team's true position among the population of the league's teams. Now you have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got an overall rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. Whew.

This week I added three data columns for the offensive and defensive "curved" ratings & totals. Without further fanfare, here are this week's ratings:

Rank	Power Rating		W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	87.3	Colts	5-0-0	27.4	14.2	0.821	0.925	1.747
2	85.2	Patriots	4-2-0	27.2	15.2	0.812	0.892	1.704
3	84.8	Saints	5-0-0	38.4	18.6	0.996	0.701	1.696
4	78.5	Falcons	4-1-0	24.6	15.4	0.687	0.883	1.570
5	76.3	Broncos	6-0-0	22.2	11.0	0.543	0.982	1.526
6	76.0	Vikings	6-0-0	31.5	20.2	0.940	0.580	1.520
7	75.2	Giants	5-1-0	29.7	19.8	0.898	0.606	1.505
8	73.0	Packers	3-2-0	26.0	18.6	0.759	0.701	1.460
9	71.1	Eagles	3-2-0	27.2	19.8	0.813	0.609	1.422
10	65.5	Steelers	4-2-0	23.3	18.7	0.614	0.696	1.310
11	65.3	Ravens	3-3-0	28.2	21.7	0.851	0.456	1.307
12	65.0	Cowboys	3-2-0	24.4	19.6	0.676	0.625	1.301
13	63.6	Cardinals	3-2-0	22.4	18.4	0.558	0.715	1.273
14	62.5	Bears	3-2-0	23.8	19.8	0.642	0.609	1.251
15	59.1	49ers	3-2-0	22.4	19.6	0.558	0.625	1.183
16	56.8	Jets	3-3-0	19.0	17.3	0.351	0.785	1.136
17	56.1	Seahawks	2-4-0	19.7	18.2	0.390	0.731	1.121
18	52.6	Dolphins	2-3-0	22.4	21.2	0.558	0.494	1.052
19	50.5	Bengals	4-2-0	19.7	19.7	0.390	0.620	1.010
20	50.3	Texans	3-3-0	23.8	22.8	0.643	0.362	1.005
21	47.8	Redskins	2-4-0	13.2	16.0	0.099	0.857	0.956
22	40.1	Chargers	2-3-0	24.8	27.2	0.698	0.104	0.801
23	32.6	Jaguars	3-3-0	20.0	24.5	0.410	0.242	0.652
24	32.4	Bills	2-4-0	15.5	21.5	0.178	0.470	0.647
25	24.4	Chiefs	1-5-0	16.3	24.0	0.213	0.276	0.489
26	22.8	Panthers	2-3-0	17.0	25.0	0.244	0.211	0.455
27	18.9	Raiders	2-4-0	10.3	23.2	0.042	0.336	0.378
28	14.6	Browns	1-5-0	11.5	24.7	0.061	0.231	0.292
29	13.5	Lions	1-5-0	17.2	31.3	0.253	0.017	0.270
30	11.4	Buccaneers	0-6-0	14.8	28.0	0.152	0.077	0.229
31	6.5	Titans	0-6-0	14.0	33.0	0.124	0.007	0.130
32	4.9	Rams	0-6-0	9.0	28.2	0.027	0.072	0.099

Hope youse guys like the format changes, your feedback is welcome. You can download the spreadsheet here. Cheers!

Here's a DB the Falcons DON'T need

tom slick — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 01:33:51 -0000

Here's a DB the Falcons DON'T need

If you missed it, here's video of the Panthers' Dante Wesley putting a particularly cheap shot on the Bucs' Clifton Smith. Wesley was suspended for a game, Smith is out at least a week with a concussion.

Professor Frink's Power Rankings

tom slick — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:05:40 -0000

For several years, my nerdy alter ego has maintained a spreadsheet that assigns overall ratings to each NFL team, based on a simple statistical analysis of offensive and defensive points scored & allowed. Surprisingly, it's historically been a pretty good predictor of victory, once you get 5 or 6 weeks into the season.

Weekly results and details after the jump...

Here's how the math works. For each team, calculate Points For per Game and Points Against per Game. Then, fit the league's offensive & defensive data onto a couple of Bell Curves (or normal distributions, if you prefer), a very common analysis technique. Depending where each team lies on the curve, this yields a value between 0 and 1 for each team's O and D. For each team, add the offensive and defensive values, then multiply by 50 to put the ratings on a 0-to-100 scale. Statistics 101 stuff, nothing fancy.

Not perfect (what power rankings are?) but I like the simplicity, and it's stood the test of time fairly well IMO. Without further ado, for your amusement...

Rank	Rating		W-L-T	PF/GM	PA/GM
1	91.2	Giants	5-0-0	30.2	14.2
2	90.4	Saints	4-0-0	36.0	16.5
3	86.7	Colts	5-0-0	27.4	14.2
4	83.4	Vikings	5-0-0	31.2	18.0
5	79.5	Falcons	3-1-0	25.5	15.8
6	73.3	Ravens	3-2-0	27.6	19.4
7	71.0	Eagles	3-1-0	31.8	21.5
8	71.0	Seahawks	2-3-0	23.0	16.4
9	70.0	Bears	3-1-0	26.3	19.5
10	69.7	Broncos	5-0-0	19.8	8.6
11	64.9	Cowboys	3-2-0	24.4	19.6
12	59.7	Steelers	3-2-0	22.6	19.6
13	59.2	Jets	3-2-0	20.2	17.6
14	59.1	Patriots	3-2-0	20.8	18.2
15	59.1	49ers	3-2-0	22.4	19.6
16	58.0	Bengals	4-1-0	20.2	18.0
17	55.2	Packers	2-2-0	26.0	23.3
18	53.0	Dolphins	2-3-0	22.4	21.2
19	48.7	Redskins	2-3-0	14.6	16.4
20	46.1	Chargers	2-2-0	25.3	25.5
21	45.4	Cardinals	2-2-0	21.3	22.3
22	44.4	Texans	2-3-0	23.0	24.0
23	29.2	Jaguars	2-3-0	19.4	25.4
24	26.3	Bills	1-4-0	15.4	23.2
25	23.2	Lions	1-4-0	20.6	32.4
26	17.2	Chiefs	0-5-0	16.8	27.6
27	16.9	Titans	0-5-0	16.8	27.8
28	16.8	Browns	1-4-0	11.0	24.2
29	15.5	Panthers	1-3-0	14.3	26.0
30	10.6	Raiders	1-4-0	9.8	26.0
31	10.4	Buccaneers	0-5-0	13.6	28.0
32	3.6	Rams	0-5-0	6.8	29.2

The full spreadsheet can be downloaded here.

If any of youse guys want to see future editions of this, please comment or do a Rec. I don't mind the few minutes' work posting this weekly, provided there are people who care to read it. Cheers!

Harvey Dahl, the NFL's Meanest Player?

tom slick — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 21:37:03 -0000

Harvey Dahl, the NFL's Meanest Player?

Found this enjoyable article from May, all about the ferocious Harvey Dahl. Great read if you haven't caught it already.