SB Nation User Blog: tom slick

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 14

tom slick — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:36:53 -0000

Even more fun than a Billy Mays TV commercial, here are this week's numbers for your info-tainment. Enjoy!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

At its heart, this is a VERY simple method of calculating ratings, using only two stats. The results aren't meant to be a perfect reflection of the real world; don't focus too narrowly on exactly where each team's totals are ranked. The two components (O and D ratings) are often more revealing than the totals, don't overlook those.

Here's how the ratings are calculated. The first step is to calculate two simple stats: Points For per Game, and Points Against per Game, for each team. These two leaguewide data sets for offense & defense both conform to a "Bell Curve", or Normal Distribution, that can be graphed. Depending on where each team lies on that graph, they have a value between 0 and 1. (This isn't something pulled from thin air. It's a very common, standardized statistical analysis technique. The purpose is to more accurately measure each team's position within the ‘population' of all league teams.) You now have every team rated from 0 to 1, on offense and on defense. Add those two numbers and you've got a total rating for each team. Last, multiply by 50 to convert the ratings onto a 0-to-100 scale, making them more readable and intuitive. There you go. Simple, right?

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	88.6	Colts	13-0-0	27.6	16.7	0.868	0.903	1.771
2	85.6	Vikings	11-2-0	29.9	18.7	0.938	0.774	1.711
3	83.0	Patriots	8-5-0	26.8	18.0	0.833	0.827	1.659
4	80.6	Ravens	7-6-0	24.5	16.8	0.713	0.900	1.613
5	79.6	Packers	9-4-0	26.5	18.7	0.818	0.774	1.592
6	76.8	Chargers	10-3-0	27.8	19.9	0.877	0.660	1.537
7	76.7	Saints	13-0-0	35.8	21.1	0.995	0.538	1.533
8	72.5	Eagles	9-4-0	28.6	21.0	0.903	0.546	1.449
9	71.4	Cowboys	8-5-0	22.8	17.9	0.596	0.832	1.428
10	70.2	Jets	7-6-0	21.2	16.2	0.481	0.923	1.404
11	66.2	Bengals	9-4-0	20.3	16.7	0.420	0.903	1.323
12	65.8	Cardinals	8-5-0	23.5	19.8	0.649	0.668	1.316
13	63.2	Steelers	6-7-0	21.4	18.8	0.497	0.767	1.264
14	61.4	49ers	6-7-0	20.7	18.6	0.448	0.780	1.227
15	61.2	Broncos	8-5-0	19.7	17.7	0.377	0.847	1.225
16	61.0	Texans	6-7-0	23.9	21.0	0.674	0.546	1.220
17	49.4	Redskins	4-9-0	18.0	19.3	0.268	0.720	0.988
18	47.3	Giants	7-6-0	26.2	25.4	0.807	0.138	0.945
19	45.8	Falcons	6-7-0	23.2	23.5	0.628	0.288	0.916
20	42.7	Dolphins	7-6-0	22.5	23.5	0.574	0.280	0.855
21	37.7	Titans	6-7-0	22.5	24.8	0.580	0.173	0.753
22	37.6	Bills	5-8-0	16.5	20.8	0.189	0.563	0.752
23	36.3	Bears	5-8-0	19.0	22.4	0.331	0.396	0.727
24	35.1	Jaguars	7-6-0	18.1	22.1	0.273	0.429	0.702
25	35.0	Panthers	5-8-0	17.3	21.7	0.229	0.471	0.699
26	33.2	Seahawks	5-8-0	19.2	23.2	0.346	0.317	0.663
27	13.4	Browns	2-11-0	12.2	24.2	0.047	0.220	0.267
28	12.9	Raiders	4-9-0	11.9	24.3	0.043	0.214	0.257
29	12.3	Chiefs	3-10-0	15.8	26.3	0.157	0.090	0.247
30	8.5	Lions	2-11-0	16.1	31.2	0.167	0.004	0.171
31	8.0	Buccaneers	1-12-0	14.6	27.4	0.110	0.051	0.160
32	3.7	Rams	1-12-0	11.2	27.8	0.033	0.041	0.073
			means:	21.4	21.4

The Falcons fell one spot to 19th, but New Orleans fell 2 spots in victory! Go figure. Someone must have put a "Voodoo Curse" on the Saints' ratings this week! The Ravens' lopsided win over mighty Detroit did wonders for their ranking, leapfrogging them over a crowded field by 7 spots. Not much noteworthy upward movement, otherwise; Titans up by 5, Browns 4. Falling in the rankings were Seattle, down 6 slots, and Arizona, down 3.

That's it for week 14, gents. Spreadsheet download here. Na zdraví!

Falcons' disturbing attitude toward Ryan playing Sunday?

tom slick — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:56:59 -0000

Falcons' disturbing attitude toward Ryan playing Sunday?

I hope I'm overreacting, but when I saw Smitty's quote, "Our mind-set is to try to get him back as soon as we can", I didn't like it one bit. Judge for yourselves.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 13

tom slick — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:35:37 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Here's this week's tall, frothy tankard of numbers, with which to drown your sorrows. Have fun!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	89.0	Colts	12-0-0	27.6	16.8	0.865	0.915	1.780
2	83.2	Vikings	10-2-0	29.9	19.4	0.937	0.728	1.665
3	82.5	Patriots	7-5-0	27.3	18.7	0.855	0.794	1.649
4	79.8	Packers	8-4-0	26.9	19.1	0.837	0.759	1.596
5	78.4	Saints	12-0-0	36.7	20.9	0.997	0.570	1.568
6	78.2	Eagles	8-4-0	27.3	19.6	0.851	0.712	1.563
7	77.5	Chargers	9-3-0	28.5	20.2	0.898	0.653	1.551
8	74.2	Cowboys	8-4-0	23.3	17.8	0.623	0.861	1.484
9	72.1	Cardinals	8-4-0	24.8	19.5	0.721	0.720	1.441
10	71.4	Bengals	9-3-0	21.2	15.6	0.473	0.956	1.429
11	71.3	Ravens	6-6-0	22.6	17.9	0.576	0.850	1.426
12	66.4	Jets	6-6-0	20.8	17.3	0.443	0.886	1.329
13	66.3	Steelers	6-6-0	22.7	19.3	0.582	0.744	1.325
14	65.0	Broncos	8-4-0	20.0	16.8	0.390	0.911	1.301
15	57.4	49ers	5-7-0	20.4	19.4	0.419	0.728	1.147
16	52.0	Texans	5-7-0	23.1	22.2	0.611	0.428	1.040
17	50.7	Giants	7-5-0	25.3	23.8	0.751	0.263	1.014
18	46.7	Falcons	6-6-0	23.3	23.3	0.623	0.312	0.935
19	43.7	Redskins	3-9-0	16.7	19.8	0.187	0.687	0.874
20	41.3	Seahawks	5-7-0	20.3	22.3	0.407	0.419	0.826
21	40.1	Dolphins	6-6-0	23.2	24.7	0.617	0.185	0.802
22	37.0	Bears	5-7-0	19.4	22.5	0.349	0.391	0.741
23	36.0	Panthers	5-7-0	17.9	21.8	0.255	0.466	0.721
24	33.5	Jaguars	7-5-0	18.8	22.8	0.306	0.364	0.670
25	32.9	Bills	4-8-0	16.6	21.8	0.183	0.476	0.659
26	25.5	Titans	5-7-0	20.5	26.3	0.425	0.085	0.510
27	16.3	Raiders	4-8-0	11.8	23.5	0.038	0.287	0.325
28	11.2	Chiefs	3-9-0	16.3	27.2	0.171	0.053	0.225
29	11.1	Lions	2-10-0	17.2	29.8	0.213	0.009	0.221
30	9.1	Buccaneers	1-11-0	15.6	27.5	0.139	0.044	0.183
31	7.8	Browns	1-11-0	12.1	25.8	0.042	0.114	0.156
32	6.4	Rams	1-11-0	11.6	26.2	0.035	0.092	0.127
			means:	21.5	21.5

Our Falcons only dropped 2 spots in the rankings, hooray? Still no stat-love for our Saints friends, nothing personal guys! The Eagles moved up 4 slots; Packers, Cardinals and Panthers up 2. Ravens & Bills were down 3.

There's your lucky week 13 numbers, friends! Spreadsheet download is here. Kampai!

D.J. Shockley added to practice squad

tom slick — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:51:02 -0000

D.J. Shockley added to practice squad

Falcons are still going with 2 QBs Sunday, but we do need more depth while Ryan's hurt.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 12

tom slick — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:43:29 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Submitted for your approval, here is this week's venture into the Twilight Zone of floating, spinning football numbers. Enjoy!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	88.1	Colts	11-0-0	27.6	16.7	0.857	0.904	1.761
2	87.6	Vikings	10-1-0	31.1	18.5	0.953	0.799	1.751
3	83.7	Patriots	7-4-0	27.9	18.4	0.868	0.806	1.673
4	82.5	Saints	11-0-0	37.0	20.1	0.997	0.653	1.649
5	77.7	Chargers	8-3-0	28.4	19.9	0.884	0.671	1.555
6	76.6	Packers	7-4-0	26.9	19.5	0.826	0.706	1.532
7	76.3	Cowboys	8-3-0	23.2	16.5	0.613	0.912	1.526
8	75.6	Ravens	6-5-0	23.4	17.1	0.625	0.886	1.512
9	70.1	Bengals	8-3-0	21.0	15.8	0.463	0.940	1.402
10	70.0	Eagles	7-4-0	26.6	20.7	0.814	0.587	1.401
11	68.6	Cardinals	7-4-0	24.3	19.7	0.684	0.688	1.372
12	68.1	Steelers	6-5-0	22.5	18.5	0.570	0.792	1.362
13	65.3	Jets	5-6-0	20.9	17.7	0.456	0.850	1.306
14	58.3	49ers	5-6-0	20.7	19.4	0.444	0.722	1.166
15	57.0	Broncos	7-4-0	17.8	17.2	0.258	0.881	1.139
16	56.6	Falcons	6-5-0	24.7	22.3	0.712	0.421	1.133
17	53.9	Texans	5-6-0	23.5	22.1	0.637	0.440	1.078
18	49.4	Giants	6-5-0	24.7	23.7	0.712	0.276	0.988
19	46.4	Redskins	3-8-0	15.5	18.6	0.144	0.785	0.928
20	39.6	Dolphins	5-6-0	23.3	25.0	0.619	0.174	0.793
21	39.3	Seahawks	4-7-0	20.3	22.7	0.412	0.373	0.786
22	32.9	Bills	4-7-0	16.9	22.0	0.209	0.450	0.659
23	32.3	Bears	4-7-0	19.6	23.7	0.370	0.276	0.646
24	30.8	Jaguars	6-5-0	18.4	23.2	0.289	0.328	0.617
25	29.6	Panthers	4-7-0	18.1	23.3	0.273	0.319	0.592
26	27.5	Titans	5-6-0	20.8	26.3	0.450	0.099	0.549
27	16.4	Chiefs	3-8-0	16.6	25.6	0.196	0.133	0.328
28	16.4	Raiders	3-8-0	10.5	23.5	0.026	0.301	0.328
29	12.5	Lions	2-9-0	17.5	30.5	0.242	0.008	0.250
30	10.8	Buccaneers	1-10-0	16.5	28.5	0.187	0.029	0.215
31	9.2	Browns	1-10-0	11.1	25.4	0.034	0.149	0.183
32	5.7	Rams	1-10-0	11.8	27.0	0.045	0.069	0.114
			means:	21.5	21.5

The Saints' impressive victory over the Pats just missed elevating them to 3rd place here, one more TD would have done it. Falcons were unchanged, ranking-wise.

The only team rising or falling more than 3 places was the 49ers, up from 18th to 14th. Packers, Bengals, Bills were up 3; Ravens, Texans, Giants down 3.

There's your week 12 numbers, spreadsheet download is here. Skaal!

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 11

tom slick — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 19:03:37 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

For your amusement, here are this week's numbers. Enjoy!

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

(spreadsheet)

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	91.2	Patriots	7-3-0	29.0	16.4	0.900	0.924	1.824
2	88.4	Colts	10-0-0	26.9	15.7	0.820	0.948	1.768
3	84.0	Vikings	9-1-0	30.6	19.3	0.941	0.740	1.681
4	81.5	Saints	10-0-0	36.9	20.4	0.996	0.634	1.630
5	76.6	Ravens	5-5-0	23.7	17.1	0.639	0.893	1.532
6	73.5	Cowboys	7-3-0	23.1	17.5	0.599	0.871	1.470
7	72.2	Chargers	7-3-0	26.9	20.5	0.820	0.624	1.444
8	72.0	Eagles	6-4-0	26.6	20.4	0.806	0.634	1.440
9	71.5	Packers	6-4-0	26.2	20.3	0.786	0.645	1.431
10	71.2	Cardinals	7-3-0	25.0	19.7	0.720	0.703	1.423
11	70.6	Steelers	6-4-0	23.1	18.4	0.599	0.813	1.412
12	70.0	Bengals	7-3-0	21.5	16.7	0.489	0.911	1.400
13	62.4	Jets	4-6-0	21.3	18.9	0.475	0.774	1.249
14	59.9	Texans	5-5-0	23.2	20.8	0.606	0.593	1.199
15	55.7	Giants	6-4-0	26.6	23.5	0.806	0.309	1.115
16	55.5	Falcons	5-5-0	25.2	22.8	0.732	0.379	1.110
17	51.4	Broncos	6-4-0	17.0	18.3	0.208	0.820	1.027
18	50.6	49ers	4-6-0	20.8	21.0	0.440	0.572	1.012
19	48.1	Redskins	3-7-0	14.6	17.8	0.109	0.853	0.962
20	45.0	Dolphins	5-5-0	24.2	24.4	0.671	0.228	0.900
21	41.8	Bears	4-6-0	20.6	22.5	0.426	0.410	0.836
22	34.4	Jaguars	6-4-0	19.9	23.5	0.379	0.309	0.688
23	34.4	Seahawks	3-7-0	19.6	23.3	0.359	0.328	0.687
24	30.6	Panthers	4-6-0	19.3	23.9	0.340	0.271	0.611
25	26.0	Bills	3-7-0	15.5	22.8	0.141	0.379	0.519
26	25.6	Titans	4-6-0	20.9	27.2	0.447	0.066	0.513
27	23.7	Chiefs	3-7-0	16.9	23.9	0.203	0.271	0.474
28	17.4	Raiders	3-7-0	10.8	23.4	0.029	0.318	0.347
29	13.9	Lions	2-8-0	18.1	30.1	0.267	0.011	0.278
30	9.8	Buccaneers	1-9-0	16.4	29.4	0.179	0.018	0.197
31	7.1	Browns	1-9-0	11.5	26.3	0.038	0.104	0.141
32	5.4	Rams	1-9-0	11.3	27.0	0.035	0.073	0.108
			means:	21.7	21.7

Surprising to see the Ravens still high in the ratings, though their O and D numbers are pretty solid. I wish our Falcons were up there too at 5-5, but their D rating has plunged alarmingly. Vikings and Saints have both improved some mediocre numbers lately, and crept up near the top.

The Chargers' handy victory over Denver moved them up 8 slots; seven teams moved up by two places. The Steelers & Bengals both deservedly fell 4 spots, Broncos & Seahawks 3.

That's it for Week 11, I hope youse guys found a pearl of wisdom or two in there somewhere. Spreadsheet download is here. Prost!

Norwood returns to practice

tom slick — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:41:20 -0000

Norwood returns to practice

What? Good news? Sounds like a shot in the arm for our beleaguered offense.

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 10

tom slick — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:14:36 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Bummed about the Panthers game? Do as Professor Frink does when HE's feeling blue! Immerse yourself in warm, soothing data. Ahhh...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.1	Colts	9-0-0	28.0	15.8	0.856	0.946	1.802
2	89.9	Patriots	6-3-0	28.8	16.7	0.883	0.914	1.798
3	79.3	Ravens	5-4-0	24.7	17.1	0.692	0.894	1.585
4	77.7	Vikings	8-1-0	30.1	20.4	0.922	0.633	1.555
5	74.5	Cowboys	6-3-0	24.9	18.8	0.705	0.786	1.491
6	73.6	Saints	9-0-0	36.8	21.9	0.994	0.479	1.473
7	73.2	Steelers	6-3-0	23.0	17.4	0.587	0.876	1.463
8	72.4	Bengals	7-2-0	22.0	16.3	0.521	0.928	1.448
9	72.1	Packers	5-4-0	25.8	19.9	0.754	0.688	1.442
10	72.1	Eagles	5-4-0	26.9	20.4	0.809	0.633	1.442
11	69.9	Jets	4-5-0	22.1	17.6	0.528	0.870	1.398
12	68.4	Cardinals	6-3-0	25.4	20.4	0.736	0.633	1.369
13	61.5	Texans	5-4-0	23.9	20.9	0.644	0.586	1.231
14	60.4	Broncos	6-3-0	18.6	16.8	0.299	0.910	1.209
15	60.1	Chargers	6-3-0	26.3	22.4	0.783	0.419	1.201
16	60.0	Falcons	5-4-0	24.6	21.6	0.685	0.515	1.200
17	57.5	Giants	5-4-0	25.8	22.7	0.754	0.395	1.149
18	54.7	49ers	4-5-0	20.4	20.0	0.417	0.677	1.094
19	46.0	Redskins	3-6-0	15.6	19.0	0.151	0.768	0.919
20	45.3	Seahawks	3-6-0	20.8	22.0	0.439	0.466	0.905
21	43.1	Bears	4-5-0	20.7	22.3	0.432	0.431	0.862
22	41.6	Dolphins	4-5-0	24.2	25.2	0.665	0.168	0.833
23	31.7	Panthers	4-5-0	19.6	23.9	0.360	0.275	0.634
24	31.1	Jaguars	5-4-0	20.1	24.4	0.395	0.227	0.622
25	24.4	Titans	3-6-0	21.0	28.3	0.454	0.035	0.489
26	23.9	Bills	3-6-0	15.6	23.3	0.151	0.327	0.478
27	21.7	Chiefs	2-7-0	15.8	23.9	0.160	0.275	0.435
28	13.9	Raiders	2-7-0	9.8	24.1	0.023	0.255	0.277
29	13.5	Buccaneers	1-8-0	17.4	28.4	0.238	0.033	0.270
30	9.9	Browns	1-8-0	8.7	25.0	0.014	0.184	0.198
31	9.2	Lions	1-8-0	15.9	29.3	0.165	0.019	0.183
32	4.5	Rams	1-8-0	11.1	27.7	0.038	0.052	0.089
			means	21.7	21.7

The Ravens' shutout of the lowly Browns worked wonders for them here, who knew they were "better" than the Saints? What a revelation! Colts were (fittingly?) back at #1 this week. Jets appear to be the best darn mediocre team around, these ratings absolutely love them this year. Only a handful of teams moved in the rankings much this week. Our Falcons fell 4 spots, exceeded only by the Eagles, down 7. Climbers were led by the Vikings, up 5 slots, Ravens up 4.

There's our Fun With Numbers for Week 10. I hope you reaped a nugget or two of insight, and take something good away from an otherwise forgettable Falcons weekend. Download the spreadsheet here, if you wish. Salud!

Tony Gonzalez. NAKED. Seriously!

tom slick — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:54:48 -0000

Tony Gonzalez. NAKED. Seriously!

Here's a treat for those who like Tony Gonzalez. I mean, REALLY like him...

Professor Frink’s Power Rankings, Week 9

tom slick — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:45:34 -0000

via i37.tinypic.com

Here's this week's serving of "Original Recipe" Ratings, with generous side dishes of Huh? and WTF? at no charge! And away we go...

RATINGS COMPUTATION (must-read for newbies):

Rank	Power Rating	Team	W-L-T	PF/G	PA/G	Offense Rating	Defense Rating	Total
1	90.4	Patriots	6-2-0	28.1	14.4	0.846	0.963	1.809
2	89.1	Colts	8-0-0	27.1	13.5	0.804	0.977	1.781
3	77.8	Eagles	5-3-0	27.4	19.1	0.815	0.742	1.557
4	77.8	Cowboys	6-2-0	27.1	19.0	0.804	0.751	1.555
5	75.9	Steelers	6-2-0	24.4	17.4	0.661	0.857	1.518
6	75.1	Saints	8-0-0	37.9	21.8	0.995	0.507	1.502
7	73.5	Ravens	4-4-0	25.8	19.3	0.737	0.732	1.469
8	71.4	Bengals	6-2-0	22.5	16.9	0.545	0.883	1.428
9	71.3	Vikings	7-1-0	30.5	21.8	0.919	0.507	1.426
10	70.5	Jets	4-4-0	22.1	16.8	0.521	0.889	1.410
11	66.2	Packers	4-4-0	26.9	21.5	0.793	0.531	1.324
12	65.6	Falcons	5-3-0	25.3	20.8	0.711	0.602	1.312
13	65.4	Cardinals	5-3-0	24.8	20.5	0.683	0.625	1.307
14	62.4	Broncos	6-2-0	18.8	15.5	0.312	0.936	1.248
15	61.0	Texans	5-4-0	23.9	20.9	0.632	0.589	1.220
16	59.2	Chargers	5-3-0	25.8	22.4	0.737	0.447	1.185
17	57.9	Giants	5-4-0	25.8	22.7	0.739	0.420	1.158
18	51.6	Seahawks	3-5-0	20.9	20.9	0.441	0.590	1.031
19	50.2	49ers	3-5-0	21.8	21.8	0.497	0.507	1.004
20	42.8	Bears	4-4-0	22.5	23.9	0.545	0.311	0.856
21	42.0	Redskins	2-6-0	14.1	19.3	0.109	0.732	0.840
22	41.7	Dolphins	3-5-0	24.1	25.5	0.646	0.188	0.834
23	35.9	Bills	3-5-0	15.4	21.1	0.151	0.567	0.717
24	30.2	Jaguars	4-4-0	19.6	24.8	0.363	0.241	0.604
25	27.9	Panthers	3-5-0	18.5	24.5	0.298	0.260	0.558
26	17.3	Chiefs	1-7-0	15.8	25.6	0.165	0.180	0.346
27	16.3	Titans	2-6-0	18.5	29.8	0.298	0.028	0.326
28	12.7	Buccaneers	1-7-0	16.8	28.9	0.208	0.045	0.253
29	12.0	Raiders	2-6-0	9.8	25.1	0.026	0.214	0.240
30	11.7	Lions	1-7-0	16.6	29.6	0.203	0.030	0.233
31	8.8	Browns	1-7-0	9.8	26.1	0.026	0.151	0.177
32	5.3	Rams	1-7-0	9.6	27.6	0.025	0.082	0.107
			means =	21.8	21.8

The volatility of the overall rankings was markedly less this week. The most any team moved up was 3 slots (Steelers, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks, Bucs). Packers fell 5 spots, no one else close. The Saints still get no love from these ratings. Although their scoring D appears statistically average, they've scored 7 defensive TDs that get credited here to the offense! Life's not fair, Mom! A little surprising to see the Pats ranked on top, though the formula loves that "balance" stuff.

That's it for Week 9, esteemed readers. Remember this is simple math-driven Fun With Numbers, and enjoy. Hopefully you may even glean a pearl of wisdom or two! You can download the spreadsheet here if you wish to play with the numbers. Cheers!