In Cafadaro's Sunday "Baseball Notes" column, he mentions the statistic "defensive efficiency" (DefEff) as one to watch. It "measures the percentage of balls put into play that are converted into outs." I googled it, and found the stat at Baseball Prospectus.  Last year, the Sox were 28th out of 30 teams. Ouch.

Notably, the DefEff numbers aren't the direct inverse of team BABIP.  DefEff includes errors, and BABIP by definition doesn't, but it is that the only difference?

I'd look it up, but I'm lazy. (Plus, I've got to hit the gym and watch the hockey game.) But I hadn't heard of the stat and thought I'd share. I know I'm curious how much our team D will improve this season, as measured by all these facy new metrics.

(Speaking of which, I found this Gasper piece on UZR to be amusing. I mean, count me as those who don't believe UZR is "teh best measurement evah," and I'm tired of over-reliance on it to say so-and-so sucks or is great or whatnot. But still, pieces like this make me pine for the days of "Fire Joe Morgan.")

via www.sonsofsamhorn.net

So I'm feeling relatively optimistic about the Catcher-Formerly-Known-As-Corpse.  He has been reworking his lefty swing, is in good shape, and hit 5 bombs in 50 ABs this spring.  I wrote somewhere last night that I'm seeing 20 HRs for him this year, and it occurred to me that we haven't had any community projections for Tek

So, without further ado...

AB: 420
HR: 22
BA: .255
OBP: .367
SLG: .440

 

 

Poll

What do you think about Tek?

28%

Partying like it's 2005.

14 votes

59%

Slight rebound.

29 votes

12%

tommy is high again - Tek is done.

6 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed

First, from Details magazine, which I had never heard of before tonight, an article on Arod. The man. Very interesting. This part made me laugh out loud.

Rodriguez claims he hasn't read the book, but it's clear he's aware of its contents. He says numerous teammates contacted him to express support when it came out. I ask whether he's heard this fabulous revelation from the Torre book: that a Yankee trainer would rub hot liniment on Roger Clemens' testicles just before his starts. "Oh," Rodriguez says, smirking. "I'd heard that. But I didn't witness it."

There's also some juicy withheld on Arod's favorite Madonna song.

Second, from GQ, this article on Lenny Dykstra's post-baseball career is pretty much amazing. Quite the successful lunatic, apparantely.

Good baseball players are sometimes really weird people.

John Hoyer Updike (March 18, 1932 – January 27, 2009) passed away today. Novelist, poet, critic - genuine man of letters.

Why, you may ask, is this at all relevant to OTM? Because his article "Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu" just might be the best piece of baseball writing.

Here's a taste:

Greatness necessarily attracts debunkers, but in Williams' case the hostility has been systematic and unappeasable. His basic offense against the fans has been to wish that they weren't there. Seeking a perfectionist's vacuum, he has quixotically desired to sever the game from the ground of paid spectatorship and publicity that supports it. Hence his refusal to tip his cap to the crowd or turn the other cheek to newsmen. It has been a costly theory—it has probably cost him, among other evidences of good will, two Most Valuable Player awards, which are voted by reporters—but he has held to it from his rookie year on. While his critics, oral and literary, remained beyond the reach of his discipline, the opposing pitchers were accessible, and he spanked them to the tune of .406 in 1941. He slumped to .356 in 1942 and went off to war.

 

R.I.P.

 

So the Yanks have had a couple new developments.

First, signing Pettite for one year, 5.5m. I almost feel bad for him - he was initially offered 10m but turned it down, only to find the market had bottomed out, and had to settle for 5.5. Tough luck, kid. Probably helps our bargaining position vis a vis Tek.

But it's a good deal for the Yanks, I think. Sure, he was total crap at the end of the season - 2-7 with a 6.23 ERA in his final 11 starts - but was 12-7, 3.76 ERA prior to that. If they can get 20 good starts out of him this is a great deal.The MFYs rotation is going to be tough.

 

Second, Torre co-authored a new book on his time with the MFYs. Among the juicy tidbits, Arod is referred to as "A-fraud." Ha. He also trashes the Steinbrenners (presumably the kids) and Cashman.

Olney puts up a couple passages (members only, I think) in order to poo-poo Torre's involvement in the book -

[F]rom page 245:

Back in 2004, at first Rodriguez did his best to try and fit into the Yankee culture -- his cloying, B Grade actor best. He slathered on the polish. People in the clubhouse, including teammates and support personnel were calling him "A-Fraud" behind his back.

And it was Torre's choice, ultimately, to include this, from page 252:

In his own way, Rodriguez was fascinated with [Derek] Jeter, as if trying to figure out what it was about Jeter that could have bought him so much goodwill. The inside joke in the clubhouse was that Rodriguez' pre-occupation with Jeter recalled the 1992 film, "Single White Female," in which a woman becomes obsessed with her roommate to the point of dressing like her.

And it was Torre who approved the words in the excerpt released Monday -- after Torre had assured Cashman on the phone Sunday that they were friends and always would be friends.

Only much later did Torre start to put the picture together of what had happened to his working relationship with Cashman. The personal falling-out they had in 2006 spring training over philosophical issues, Cashman's decision not to bring back longtime center fielder Bernie Williams when his contract expired in 2006, his submission of odd lineup suggestions based on stats, his lack of regard for Ron Guidry as a pitching coach, his detachment from the "they" who were making an offer to Torre, his failure to offer any comment or support in the meeting that decided Torre's future, his failure to personally relay Torre's proposal to find a way to reach an agreement to the Steinbrenners … "I thought Cash was an ally, I really did," Torre says.

(Sniff)

I'm curious how the Tex-Arod thing will play out. They could be the best 3-4 combo in baseball, and supposedly they couldn't stand each other in Texas. Should be fun.

 

I realize that neither of these things is particularly new to most of you, but I figured it was time to get the political thread off the front page...

 

So we've all read Mazz's interview with OTM from the other day.

Here's his sidebar from today's Globe/blog thingy:

Tony's Top 5

Reasons to keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen:

5 The impact on Manny Delcarmen. As we learned last year, Delcarmen is far more effective in the sixth or seventh innings.

4 His stuff is better. As a starter, Masterson's fastball is in 90-92. As a reliever, he has touched 96. This gives Masterson the ability to induce K's and double plays.

3 The lefty issue. Unless or until he incorporates an effective changeup or split, Masterson will continue to be vulnerable against lefthanded batters.

2 Efficiency - or inefficiency. As a starter, Masterson's difficulties against lefthanded batters can inflate his pitch counts and shorten his outings.

1 The team would be better off. It may seem sad to say, but an effective late-inning reliever now may have more value than a mediocre, back-end starter.

On the whole, I agree that Masterson should stay in the pen. But this does seem inconsistent with the idea that Masterson is "the best of the lot" of Buch and Bowden. Unless he is implying that Buch and Bowden project as worse than "mediocre, backend starter(s)." Which I take serious issue with.

HUUUGE grain of salt here.

But apparently CC Sabathia has told Ned Colletti that he wants to be a Dodger.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark on Monday that he ran into the free agent on Sunday night in a hotel lobby and the left-hander told him that he wants to be a Dodger.

Although the New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers have made offers to the prize of the free-agent class, speculation continued that Sabathia would want to play near the home he is building in Southern California.

This could be interesting. If the Yanks don't get CC, I think they'll freak out and throw the bank at Teixeira. Which would make me sad.

(sniff)

 

So Manny says he's tired of the Sox, that they don't deserve him, and that he'll approve a trade if the Sox think they're better off without him. But maybe in Manny-being-Manny world, he doesn't really think they'll trade him. Maybe he's just having fun, talking trash and making sure he can hit the free agency market this off-season.

 

So what do you think - will veto a trade?

Poll

For all his talk, what are the chances Manny vetoes any trade coming down the pipeline?

63%

He won't veto. He wants to be gone.

21 votes

6%

He'll veto a trade to the Marlins. Yes, he wants to leave, but he still wants to make the playoffs.

2 votes

9%

He'll veto. He didn't actually think the Sox would trade him.

3 votes

21%

He won't be traded.

7 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed

The Boston Red Sox place shortstop Julio Lugo on the 15-day disabled list with a left quad strain on Saturday.

Lugo was injured Friday night while running out an infield single in the ninth inning of Boston's 7-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. Lugo began to limp as he approached first base, then dropped to ground shortly after hitting the bag.

The age of Lowrie has begun. We shall see how he fares, but it looks like he'll be getting a two week tryout here.

I think an infield of Lowell, Pedroia, Youk and Lowrie could set a record for doubles.

 

*********UPDATE************

He had an MRI today and said the doctor told him it was torn; the team said it was a "severe strain." He is expected to be out 4-to-6 weeks and was in the team clubhouse with a large brace on his left leg.

So it looks like Lowrie's tryout might be a month. I just picked him up for my fantsy team - you might want to do the same...

 

Boston

Ellsbury-CF
Pedroia-2B
Youkilis-1B
Ramirez-DH
Lowell-3B
Varitek-C
Drew-RF
Bailey-LF
Lugo-SS
Colon-SP

Baltimore

Roberts-2B
Markakis-RF
Millar-1B
Huff-3B
Scott-DH
Payton-LF
Jones-CF
Quiroz-C
Bynum-SS
Burres-SP

 

So Papi felt a "pop" in his wrist last night. Hopefully it's no thang, but he's taking a breather and scheduled for an MRI.

In other news, Brandon Moss has seemingly recovered from his appendectomy. He hit three HRs last night for the Pawsox.

If no one else will do it...

Boston

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, RF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
7. Jason Varitek, C
8. Coco Crisp, CF
9. Julio Lugo, SS
-- Jon Lester, SP

Baltimore

1. Brian Roberts, 2B
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Melvin Mora, 3B
4. Kevin Millar, 1B
5. Aubrey Huff, DH
6. Ramon Hernandez, C
7. Jay Payton, LF
8. Adam Jones, CF
9. Alex Cintron, SS
-- Garrett Olson, SP

2nd inning, 0-0.

Last I checked, Celts were up by 16 mid-way through the 3rd. But my wife wants to watch Top Chef.

Little nugget from Gammons today - "Beane says Jacoby Ellsbury is "without doubt the best defensive center fielder in the game today."

Red Sox

1. Jacoby Ellsbury, RF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. Mike Lowell, 3B
6. Sean Casey, 1B
7. Coco Crisp, CF
8. Kevin Cash, C
9. Julio Lugo, SS

-- Tim Wakefield, SP

Mariners

1. Ichiro Suzuki, CF
2. Miguel Cairo, 1B
3. Jose Vidro, DH
4. Raul Ibanez, LF
5. Jose Lopez, 2B
6. Adrian Beltre, 3B
7. Wladimir Balentien, RF
8. Jamie Burke, C
9. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

-- Erik Bedard, SP

This is fun.

It's a pretty good team. Mantle, Sosa, Palmiero and Belle are all on the bench. I knew about most of these guys' "issues," but there are some I was unaware of. Lamarr Hoyt, for example. And the Parrot is a real shocker.

I'm trying to think of who is missing. Gaylord Perry, perhaps. Dock Ellis, maybe - though I always found his story to be amusing.

Anyways. Drugs are bad. Very very bad.

 

 

I just figured that out. And I am glad that I did - Hansen looks nasty. Orel Hershiser says he has an elite arm. 96 MPH fastball, and a 87 MPH slider that drops about two feet right before it reaches the plate. I am drooling.

In other news, Dice BB walked EIGHT FRICKIN GUYS. In five innings. Though he managed to only allow one run. Crazy.

Anyways, I guess this can be an open thread, if anyone out there is on-site...

 

 

3 year deal, $24 million. My initial thought was "Jeff Clement, drool." Apparently Buster Olney had the same reaction. (link requires membership...)

"What follows is pure speculation; to repeat, pure speculation. With the Mariners now committed to Johjima for the next few years, it might make sense for Seattle to offer catching prospect Jeff Clement to the Red Sox in return for outfielder Coco Crisp, with other players also involved in the deal; the Red Sox would have to include some pitching.

"Boston is looking to improve its catching depth and Clement could give them a solid alternative one day, as Jason Varitek enters the last years of his career, and the Mariners desperately need to stabilize their outfield situation. Crisp could play right field, with Ichiro Suzuki remaining in center, or, if Ichiro preferred right, Crisp could play center."

Never mind that Coco in RF is a ridiculously terrible idea, especially with Ichiro and his arm being relatively wasted in LF. Clement is apparently having a strong season thus far at AAA -

Clement is tearing up the Class AAA ranks for the team's Tacoma affiliate. The first-round draft pick from 2005 is hitting .364 with an on-base-plus-slugging percentage of 1.161 with five home runs and 17 runs batted in over 66 at-bats.

I don't know much about Clement's defense. And I don't know what else it would take beyond Coco. Bowden? Hansen? Anyone but Masterson? Git er done, Theo.

Poll

What do you think of the new site?

65%

Sweet. Play ball.

78 votes

26%

I fear change.

32 votes

7%

New site?

9 votes

119 votes | Poll has closed

Via Rob Neyer's insider page at ESPN, I came across this article at Baseball Analysts, where Patrick Sullivan goes over a number of position player battles this ST.

First up, Coco v. Ellsbury:

Boston Center Field - Coco Crisp vs. Jacoby Ellsbury

                     Crisp                 Ellsbury
2007              .268/.330/.382   .353/.394/.509
2008 (Pecota) .278/.338/.407   .287/.346/.395
2008 (Zips)     .271/.333/.410   .297/.349/.392

This one will be interesting. With Curt Schilling likely out for an extended period of time (if not the entire season), it would not be surprising to see Crisp dealt for starting pitching depth before Opening Day. Barring such a deal, however, Francona will be tested. Crisp is an appalingly frustrating hitter to watch and the vocal Boston fanbase is ready for a change. Not helping his cause is that his fielding prowess is not necessarily discernible to the naked eye. He is one of the very best defensive center fielders in baseball. Furthermore, Ellsbury dazzled in last year's playoffs, and Red Sox fans are chomping at the bit to see the kid get a fulltime shot.

But have a look at the numbers above. Given his superior glovework, Crisp looks like he is the better option. If Theo and the Boston brass stand pat and head into the season with both players on the roster, Francona's resolve will be tested.

I agree with homeboy that Coco is appalling to watch at the plate and a joy to watch in the field. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Coco were to pick up 25-30 points of SLG this year (as PECOTA and ZIPS project, but I'm not very hopeful about it. My guess is that the projections are inflated because they are factoring in his last year in Cleveland as part of their projections.

I think Jacoby will outperform those projections by a bit - though I see his OPS in the high .700s, approaching .800, as opposed to the .900 we saw last year. And everything I've heard about Jacoby is that he will be excellent defensively too, so it won't be too much of a drop from Coco to him.

And then there's the intangibles, which based on last year's playoff performances alone, certainly favor Ellsbury.

Though I have to say, given Coco's potential to make a scene if he's not the starter, it might be worth having Ellsbury ride the pine to keep up Coco's trade value.

Anyways, read the rest of the article, and check out the Baseball Analysts site.

Some NY schmuck tries to start a flame war between NY and Boston. Mr. Tremendous stumbles across it. Hilarity ensues.

Quick snip of the lede, so I can reach the character threshold for diary posting...

NY Schmuck: Beantown? That's it? Beantown?

There may be a city with a worse nickname somewhere, although I'm not sure what it could possibly be. Is there a Phlegmville out there?

Ken Tremendous: Annapolis, Maryland is "Crabtown." That's pretty bad. Beaver, OK -- already a terrible name for a place -- proudly self-identifies as "The Cow Chip Throwing Capital of the World." Well done. Birmingham, AL can't even really distinguish itself, when it announces that it's "The Pittsburgh of the South." Lyons, KS, about 30 miles due north of me here in Partridge, advertises itself as "The Unexpected Pleasure." Dubious, if you've ever been to Lyons. Santa Rosa, NM boasts that it's "The SCUBA-Diving Capital of New Mexico," which: isn't NM a land-locked desert? Noxubee County, Mississippi, waves on its flag: "Home of the Dancing Rabbit Festival and Magnolia Pilgrimage," next to which "Beantown" looks pretty effing good.

Oh good grief.

Roger Clemens' lead attorney told The New York Times that his firm is launching its own investigation into allegations the seven-time Cy Young winner used steroids and human growth hormone.

"We are convinced the conclusions in Mitchell's report are wrong and are investigating the findings ourselves," Rusty Hardin told The Times. "At this stage we have uncovered a lot of logical people who we thought Mitchell was going to talk to but never talked to him or his investigators. That's troubling."

Hardin declined to tell The Times the names of the individuals he was referring to.

Either this stink of OJ's attempt to find the real murderer, or Clemens is going to drag a lot more people down into the mud with him. What a jerk.

Poking around on the internets, I see the Rangers have acquired Josh Hamilton from the Reds in exchange for a pretty good pitching prospect. I like the trade from the Rangers perspective, as they got a potential masher to fill their CF hole. But from our perspective, I'm bummed that they filled Coco's would-be spot. This makes it much less likely that we'll be able to snag one of their catching prospects. Unless of course the Twins go for the Ellsbury package, and we flip Lester for Salty. Or something.

Two articles, here and here.

In the first one, he assesses the concept of "clutch," and surprisingly reverses the long-held sabermetrician position that clutch doesn't exist. Maybe the Sox were privy to this report a few weeks ago, and that's why they didn't bid seriously on Arod?

In the second one, he assesses the "historic bubble of young talent" that we have in baseball right now.  Fun read.

I know this is a baseball blog, and we should keep politicking out of it, but I can't not post about this. Via Randy and Allen's boss, Mitt Romney apparently screwed up a slam dunk pander to Red Sox Nation.

Eighty-seven long years. We waited 87 long years. And true suffering Red Sox fans that my family and I are, we could not have been more happy than to see the Red Sox win the World Series.

Man. What a doof.

Check it out -

Barry Bonds was indicted Thursday for perjury and obstruction of justice, charged with lying when he told a federal grand jury that he did not knowingly use performance-enhancing drugs.

Wow. I never thought we'd see indictments over steroids. Insane.

Presumably, hos lawyers could tie this up so it wouldn't go to trial for at least another year (the Federal Courts, in my experience, are extremely slow), so he could play another seson. But my guess is that he's done. Crazy.

Time is winding down on the Sox' exclusive bargaining period with Mike Lowell.  

It doesn't mean Lowell is 100 percent gone if the sides can't reach an agreement in the next few hours, but it certainly gives Lowell and the Sox a chance to seek a free-agent deal with another team and/or player.

Both sides know the approximate market. If they haven't had a meeting of the minds yet, I imagine they won't be able to once the four- and five-year offers start rolling in.

I still have a faint hope that this diary will be obsolete by the time I hit publish, or that I'll wake up tomorrow and read about a new contract. But I'm trying to get used to the idea of a new third baseman.

Nick Cafadaro says the Mitchell report will be juicy.

Player agents who attended yesterday's union meeting in New York were told that 11 current free agent players are named in the George Mitchell report on the use of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, which could come out sometime around the first of the year, and that all 11 players have been notified by the commissioner's office. Two agents who were there confirmed this today.

I wonder if teams will be holding off on signing FAs til after the report comes out.

I also wonder if Mitchell is naming guys who are still doping or if they're just publishing names of guys who got stuff like 6 years ago. If it's the latter - and I suspect it will be - I don't really get it. What's the point in saying "so and so did bad things 5 years ago" other than to allow Major League Baseball to proclaim "we take out our own trash," when in fact they didn't. It's a joke.

I had seen a few clips on boston.com, but a friend sent me the whole video, which is pretty funny.

Papelbon is rapidly ascending the list of people I'd like to get a beer with. Others on the list - Neil Young, Bruce Springsteen, Angelina Jolie, Drugs Delaney, Tim Robbins. I'd say Steve Earle too but I think he's sober.

(am I at 300 characters yet?)

The Baseball Analysts have run a three-part look at the future of the Sox. Here are part one, part two, and part three.

The articles are a couple days old, giving us errors like "Boston will undoubtedly pass on its option to bring back Julian Tavarez for $3.85M." But it's got some good points mixed in there.

So I haven't seen much/any mention of it on this site, but WTF was up with the Arod opt out announcement in the 7th inning?

Seriously, that was some of the weakest crapola I've ever witnessed. It was something out of the Paris Hilton/Britney Spears school of "look at me" public relations.

Man, I hope we don't sign that jerk. Here's to three/four more years of Mikey Mike.

Word.  

Before jumping on the A Train for my long late-night journey uptown, I grabbed a copy of the Village Voice's "Best Of" issue. And under the category "Best Retired Baseball Player", I found this little blurb.

Yes, the beefy ex-Red Sox slugger ended his career a few years ago with a desultory tour as a Met with aching knees. But if Mo Vaughn stunk up Queens, he's doing wonders in Brooklyn as a clean-up man. A savvy businessman now, Vaughn is helping revitalize such places as Brownsville by buying crumbling buildings and renovating them so that ordinary folk--not hipsters--can actually live in them. So far, bad knees and all, Vaughn is batting 1.000 since he retired.

Good work, Mo.