SB Nation User Blog: toonsterwu

Olson for Pie rumor

toonsterwu — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 00:26:01 -0000

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles1129,0,3629851.story

I'm a Cubs fan, but I grew up in Maryland and love Camden Yards.

I'll be honest, I don't get this for Baltimore. For the Cubs, Pie has become a spare part, with Fukudome's contract giving him the lefty platoon rights to center field.

I don't see the point of adding Pie. Jones/Markakis is a nice combo. Let Reimold get a shot, amongst others.

Also, at the cost of Olson? Olson still looks like a solid mid-rotation lefty. Is a 3rd OF needed?

Now, to be fair, the article doesn't say 1 for 1, so maybe we wait and see, but I fail to see what other pieces that the Cubs would likely be willing to add to make this deal make sense, IMO, for Baltimore.Even, say, Pie/Cedeno would still seem iffy to me, although that's a better gamble (but the Cubs might have to keep Cedeno for the Padres). I don't know if the Cubs want to move Fontenot, but he would make sense, giving the flexibility to move Roberts.

Hate to do this, a Peavy post

toonsterwu — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 00:07:49 -0000

h/t to ddevonb of the cubs forum board, as i didn't see this until i saw his thread

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles1129,0,3629851.story

Anyhow, it suggests Baltimore as a possibility for the third team in a Peavy deal. The basics of the deal would be Garrett Olson for Felix Pie, and then sending Olson over for Peavy.

Let me first say ... wow. If we can land Olson for Pie straight up, I'll be pleasantly surprised. I don't think McPhail needs a 3rd OF as much as he seems to think (Jones/Markakis being the other two).

I don't think Olson is a front of the rotation type lefty, but he has solid middle of the rotation lefty potential. Olson is somewhat similar to Rich Hill in terms of arsenal. Has better life on the fastball than Sean Marshall. Control is an issue, though, for Olson.

Honestly, this is an intriguing deal even without the Peavy aspect. I'd love someone cheap like Olson at the cost of Pie. I can understand why a Olson/Vitters package would easily trump the Braves rumored offer, as the Braves young A ball lefties project similarly to Olson, so Olson's readiness gets a bump.

I don't understand the motivation for Baltimore, but eh. A young lefty starter vs. Pie?

Edit:

To be fair, the article doesn't suggest a 1 for 1 swap. I wouldn't go overboard in trying to get Olson to swap out for Peavy, but at the right cost, sure. Much as I think Pie can still be a decent starter, he doesn't have a role for a team in a win-now mode. If they want say, Pie/Barney for Olson, fine. I think we might have to hold onto Cedeno as a piece for San Diego, as the Padres would need a shortstop to allow them to move Greene.

Furthermore, I'm not saying I'm gungho about the deal (let's see what the other pieces are), but this is a possibility I wouldn't shy away from, provided we have the payroll room. I've never been against trading Vitters - what I am against is haphazardly dealing Vitters away to add Peavy and strip the system clean, limiting our options.

Sickels Top 20 List

toonsterwu — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 21:52:43 -0000

Considering it's part of SBN, I thought it'd be interesting to get a discussion going on Sickels top 20 list, posted over at www.minorleagueball.com. I wanted to get mylist done, but I've been busy of late.

Sickels list:

1) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+: Hopefully the home run power should start to come in 2009. Great contact hitting skills and still very young.

2) Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B: I have no idea what to expect here. Could be great, could be horrible, track record very erratic.

3) Ryan Flaherty, SS, Grade B: Looks like a solid all-around player to me.

4) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Grade B-: High ceiling due to fastball and slider, command issues may slow progress.

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B-: Scouting reports look great, but want to see some numbers before ranking higher.

6) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B-: I LOVE this guy…good athlete, former philosophy major, throws hard, throws strikes, great pro debut. I think he is underrated by other sources.

7) Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade C+: Still worried about his plate discipline.

8) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C+: Good glove, hits well in flashes, maybe a Miguel Olivo type?

9) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for Tommy John.

10) Aaron Shafer, RHP, Grade C+: Wichita State product with sharp command. Elbow injury cost him velocity.

11) Starlin Castro, SS, Grade C+: Intriguing toolsy infielder had strong AZL debut. A sleeper.

12) Junior Lake, SS, Grade C+: Intriguing toolsy infielder had strong AZL debut. A sleeper.

13) Dan McDaniel, RHP, Grade C+: Lots of strikeouts and grounders at Boise. Command an issue. Could rank as high as 10th.

14) Micah Hoffpauir, 1B, Grade C: Too old to rank higher but he has a major league bat. Where does he play?

15) Esmailin Caridad, RHP, Grade C: Low strikeout rate a concern, but I think he can do well in relief.

16) Don Veal, LHP, Grade C: Stock has fallen massively due to command and mechanical issues. Not protected for Rule 5, which tells you a lot.

17) Josh Kroeger, OF, Grade C: He finally learned some plate discipline and has done well in Triple-A. Getting old for a prospect.

18) Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade C: Strike zone judgment collapsed in Florida State League.

19) Chris Carpenter, RHP, Grade C: Command problems and poor health record reduce stock, but he throws very hard and has upside if he can stay away from doctors.

20) Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C: Possibly a fifth starter type if he can sharpen command more.

My thoughts:

Not surprising that Shark got a B. I agree with that as well. The potential is high, but the consistency has to get there, so a B is fair.

A bit surprised he gave Flaherty a B. I imagine some folks will discuss that over at his site, as some folks thought a B- was high for Flaherty when I posted my tentative list awhile back. I can buy a B, though.

I think he's a bit low on Castillo, but I can buy it as well, as the bat is a question.

I think he is awful low on Jovan Rosa. I mean, I can understand that folks think I'm high on Rosa, but to not put him in the top 20 (I know he says that you can arrange it in different ways) in our system?

I never read the reports on Caridad's velo increasing in AZL. If he can maintain it, then that's good news for us.

I've never rated Kroeger so far this year because he is a minor league free agent. I hope we keep him. If we do, sure I can buy the rating.

Anyone else?

The 40 man and Rule 5

toonsterwu — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 19:10:00 -0000

I was taking a look at our 40 man today and saw some new additions.

Mitch Atkins

Justin Berg

Marcos Mateo

I count 36 guys on the 40 man right now. I assume that these additions were made in the last few days. The Rule 5 draft is coming upon us, so I guess I was going to open a thread and see who people thought should be protected. There really isn't a huge need to have 4 open slots. We really aren't going to sign 4 free agents ... are we?

One name that jumps out at me at not being on the 40 man right now is Nate Spears. He's not a starting caliber guy, in all likelihood, but he seems like he could be a useful utility infielder to call up from the minors. I'm going to have to go over to the cub reporter to see who is up for Rule 5 drafting again.

As for the 3 added, I'm floored by Mateo. Nice slider, but far away and doesn't look anything more than a pen arm. Was there a huge need to protect him? I don't understand the fascination with Berg. Yes, he has a nice sinker. But really ... there's no need. We don't have a need for a long man (Gaudin/Wells and so forth) and Randy Wells added a sinker last year.

Atkins was expected and will likely be a stretched out arm at AAA this year that may see time in the pen.

OT: Thoughts on rumored Mike Jacobs deal and the potential impact for us

toonsterwu — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 06:12:14 -0000

Wanted to put an off-topic discussion in. Per Joe Frisaro of the Marlins mlb.com site and Bob Dutton of the Star, the Marlins are close to shipping Mike Jacobs off for Leo Nunez.

This one surprises me. Yes, we all knew that, despite the rhetoric about how they didn't have to deal anyone, the Marlins likely would (particularly since they have some ready chips to slot in - Gaby Sanchez at first should be fine).

Jacobs carried a .247/.299/.514 line last year. He hammered righties to a tune of .257/.315/.542 and hit better on the road with a .258/.325/.547 line. Not exactly a stud first baseman, but certainly a guy that, if utilized correctly, could be a nice piece on a club. He had an interesting 2007 as well (although the statistics were a bit different in some noticeable areas).

Thus, I'm a bit surprised that the return if Leo Nunez. Decent pen arm, runs it up there in the mid-90's, but really, a run of the mill middle reliever as of now. My reaction is, that's it?

So what does this have to do with us? No, I'm not suggesting we should've made a run at Jacobs. We have Micah for a reason. Rather, I'm wondering what it says about the Hermida market. Certainly, as always, each trade needs to be judged within it's own environment, but you can certainly draw some inferences on value. Furthermore, the Marlins might not even move Hermida, and a corner OF with upside certainly has more value than an average 1st baseman in his prime.

That said, I can't help but wonder if this is some sort of signal that the price on Hermida might not be that high. I certainly still hope that we push hard on Hermida, as I think he fits for what we need (cheap RF lefthanded option) and has upside to boot.

An Unlikely 2009 Scenario

toonsterwu — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 12:47:41 -0000

Let me first state loudly - no I don't think this is happening. It was just a scenario I worked up based off a couple trade idea I posted in another thread, and I had some spare time, so I finished the scenario off as best and quickly as I could. Haven't really pondered it all that much. Again, this ain’t happening, just for fun. Figured I’d see what folks said.

I don't think Fukudome is going anywhere. That is, I think that's a cost we are going to have to carry, and thus, we need to hope he improves.

Sorry on the formatting. Cut and paste and too lazy to go through it right now.

Trade for Brian Roberts - I think Roberts price will be higher than last year's.

Baltimore gets: Theriot, Fontenot (cheap middle infield that can help now), Rich Hill (Alan Dunn connection), and a low-level prospect

Chicago gets: Brian Roberts and a low-level prospect

I think Roberts price will be higher than last year’s … if he is even available. Maybe they ask for a better chip than a low-level prospect, but my thinking is that using Theriot as a piece could blunt some of the overall prospect demands. I’m not sure we have the assets to make a deal without using someone like Theriot in the package. Too lazy to ponder PTBNL’s right now, although I’m not thinking anything high end on both sides. Oh, I think Baltimore is one of the few clubs that might ponder Theriot at short, considering their lack of options at the position.

Trade Derrek Lee to San Francisco

San Francisco gets: Derrek Lee and Ronny Cedeno

Chicago gets: Jonathan Sanchez, Emmanuel Burriss, and an average prospect (hmm … Benjamin Snyder?)

I don’t think Cain is an option, but I think, depending on how the market shakes out, they might listen on Jon Sanchez. I wouldn’t shake on Sanchez – I like Sanchez (good power lefty arm that can be a mid-rotation guy (basically what we hoped Veal might develop into but hasn’t) or a power pen arm) and we aren’t dumping Lee. Ronny Cedeno, if Paul Sullivan’s end of the year article was correct, may be on his way out. Burris won’t be a superstar, but could have enough offense at short with a solid glove. Funny side note is that they got Burris for us signing Eyre. Cedeno gives them a young shortstop to work with to replace Burris, and arguably with higher upside than Burriss.

Let Henry Blanco go. Save the 2.7 million if it’s necessary. Koyie Hill is

fine for a backup catcher.

Trade for Jeremy Hermida.

I know, the reports on Hermida aren’t all that exciting. That said, I still see a very talented player that struggled at home this year, and someone worth gambling on. I wonder if he simply had a gigantic drop in confidence. I’m not sure if we have enough to win a bid, but I imagine the following might be a competitive bid, and for now, I’ll just imagine that a competitive bid can win it. It might take Pie, although I wonder if they lean to Colvin, with the idea that Maybin handles CF.

Marlins gets: Jose Ceda, Tyler Colvin, and Robert Hernandez (contemplated Castillo here, but leaning towards the Marlins going with arms, and Hernandez is a decent looking young arm, even with the PED cloud – again all hypothetical).

Cubs get: Jeremy Hermida

Sign Adam Dunn for first base.

I’m not too gung ho on Dunn, but in this version, the team has reshaped itself and adding a power bat is a strong thought. If I knew what to expect out of Ibanez, I might prefer him, as he’s likely cheaper, but I don’t know what to expect out of Dunn.

Trade for Scott Hairston and move Marquis

I’m looking for a cheap and versatile righty bat off the bench. Scott Hairston can move all around, and he certainly has some pop.

San Diego gets: Jason Marquis and cash

Chicago gets: Scott Hairston

Would they do this deal? I think they might, if we eat around 3-4 million of Marquis’ contract. He buys them a serviceable starter for a year, as 2009 will be a rebuilding year for them. At the cost of a utility player? It seems reasonable to me.

Trade Mark DeRosa

Huge DeRo fan. Don’t want to do this, but want to save some money. I think every team would have interest, so I’m just picking one random one right now.

Los Angeles Dodgers get: Mark DeRosa

Chicago Cubs get: Chin-lung Hu and a solid prospect (Josh Bell?)

I think the Dodgers would definitely be interested in a versatile asset like DeRosa, whom they could perhaps pencil in at 3rd base but move him around. Hu’s a good defensive shortstop, giving us a 2nd young guy to toy with. I’d also ask for a solid prospect, maybe a Josh Bell. I do expect the Dodgers to resign Furcal, and with DeJesus in the pipeline, Hu doesn't have a spot. With Gallagher likely ahead of Bell now, Bell's role in the system diminishes.

Non-tender Wuertz and Cotts to save money. Doubtful that you could net anything on either guy, so non-tendering them seems fine.

Sign a veteran shortstop to backup Burriss, with Hu sent to AAA. Pick one: Berroa? Cintron?

C: Geovany Soto

1st: Adam Dunn

2nd: Brian Roberts

SS: Emmanuel Burriss

3rd: Aramis Ramirez

RF: Jeremy Hermida

CF: Fukudome (goes into the year in a platoon with Reed)

LF: Alfonso Soriano

5 man bench: Koyie Hill, Micah Hoffpauir, Reed Johnson, Scott Hairston, Veteran MI that can handle short

Hill’s fine as a backup catcher, Hoffpauir/ offers some pop off the bench from both sides. Johnson offers a versatile OF backup, and Burriss offers the shortstop depth that can start. I’d give Cora solid money to come here to backup Burriss and act as a mentor.

One possible lineup:

1. Roberts

2. Burriss/Fukudome or Johnson

3. Ramirez

4. Dunn

5. Soriano

6. Hermida

7. Soto

8. Fukudome or Johnson/Burriss

There's good pop from 3-7 in the lineup, with some speed at the top, particularly if Burriss can continue to develop.

SP: Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, and Gaudin

I think Hendry will keep Dempster. I’m fine with Marshall or Gaudin as the 5th starter. Leaning Gaudin.

Bullpen: Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, Jonathan Sanchez, Angel Guzman, Randy Wells, Sean Marshall

I want a dominant pen to lean on. Keeping Kerry Wood gives us the best shot at a dominant pen. Give him a 2 year deal with easy incentives to trigger a 3rd year. After all, if Wood is healthy and dominant, you can live with that third year. With Wood, this could be a dominant pen. Everyone besides Gaudin and Marshall could pop it in the mid-90’s. If we wanted to save Gaudin’s money and ship him off and use Randy Wells, I’d be fine with that as well. Without Wood, you’d have to add at least 1 veteran arm, if not 2, and hope people slot into their roles. Marshall/Wells/Sanchez can all be stretched out. Shark/Guzman/Sanchez could be 7th inning power arms, with Sanchez utilized as a mix and match throughout the late innings in key games.

2009 Loose 25 man Payroll Estimation: Ugh, I’m looking at this, and I’m coming up around 140 million if you backload deals.

Anyhow, just for fun.

My tentative Cubs top 20

toonsterwu — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 21:20:14 -0000

I posted this on the Cubs board, BCB, but I figured I'd take it here to see where the entire community thinks. Granted, maybe not many people follow the Cubs system outside of Cubs fans, as there isn't all that much excitement. But figured I'd see what people thought. Just copying and pasting the entire post over.

__________________________________________________________

It’s getting to that time of the year again … prospect lists will be coming out left and right soon. Here’s my early attempt at it. Been awhile since I worked through one - last time was probably mid August? Still working through some thoughts, and thus, could make some adjustments as soon as I click the post button. Will try to expand this list to 50 or more in the near future, time permitting.

Our system has upside in the lower levels, but a lot of it is raw. Some may be open to giving higher grades to those guys. In the end, it’s just my opinion, which I try my best to base on a combination of readiness, upside, and production. I think Vitters is a solid top 50, perhaps top 40 on top 100 prospect lists. Shark is probably a solid top 40/50. Ceda/Cashner/Castillo likely are thoughts in that 80-100 range, although all three could be on the outside looking in (particularly Castillo, as BA loves Ceda, saying he has elite stuff).

Josh Vitters, B+. Strong season in Boise, but he has to perform in full-season. Look for him in Peoria, with the potential for a bump to Daytona or Tennessee later in the year. Reportedly showing signs of improved defense, enough hope that he can perhaps be in line to replace Aramis at the hot corner in a few years. Arguably, the only elite chip in our system.
Jeff Samardzija, B+. Still qualifies as a rookie. The one high upside arm in our system at the upper levels. Front of the rotation potential. Shark showed a lot of signs of improvement, but needs more work. He’ll be in the bigs in 2009, just depends on what role. I prefer him in the pen.
Jose Ceda, B. I’m not sure about a specific grade here. Part of me thinks B+, as he’s a high upside pen arm with elite stuff. Part of me thinks B, as he needs some more work. Should start 2009 in the minors in AA/AAA, although it’s not impossible he performs well in spring and goes with the big league squad. Could see the bigs in 2009 if he is with us late into the year.
Andrew Cashner, B. He’s still a work in progress. I’m hesitant to put him 4th … but who else? Think Ceda (very similar, although I think Ceda’s stuff is better). I don’t buy into the “work him as a starter” idea and expect the Cubs to develop him in the pen. Maybe he gets extended outings, but that’s typical for pen arms in the minors anyways. I’d guess Daytona to start 2009, particularly since it’s in warmer weather and more of a pitcher’s league, although he should be able to dominate Peoria if they sent him there to start. I think he could see Tennessee, if not Iowa, with an outside shot of the big leagues (but that is assuming everything is perfect).
Wellington Castillo, B. Coming into 2008, he was looked at as a young Hank White of sorts, with the potential for some offensive development. He’s shown enough to suggest that he might be better than that, if the offense develops some more. I think he starts in AA, but Iowa is possible. May get a September callup, but with Soto/Blanco/Hill, there’s no need to force him up.
Tyler Colvin, B-. The late surge got him back up a bit. If he can find some balance between instincts and discipline, he may yet reach some of the projections for him (a young Shawn Green has been tossed about before). He should start 2009 in the minors. I’d guess Iowa, but there’s a shot he starts in Tennessee to “prove it” before getting bumped up. Btw, he’s a corner OF that can pinch in CF, not a CF playing a corner spot, IMO.
Jovan Rosa, B-. Hey, I’m a big fan, so maybe I’m biased here. Certainly, the fact that he is looking like a first baseman somewhat tempers the excitement, but he posted an excellent line for the MWL. His June struggles brought down the overall line. He should be in Daytona to start 2009, likely splitting 3rd and 1st again. Only 21 at the start of 2009, one of the guys that I am really excited to follow, considering the power potential here (43 doubles and his body should fill out a bit more).
Ryan Flaherty, B-. He garnered number 12 prospect in BA’s NWL rankings. Defensive woes likely mean a positional switch down the road … which was speculated upon before the draft. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cubs do here. The positional move likely is to 2nd base, as he doesn’t profile to have the power desired at 3rd. I could see a jump to Daytona if they move him to 2nd. On the other hand, I can see them sticking in Peoria and hoping he can stick at short.
Jay Jackson, C+. I may be putting him a bit high, but boy, was he an exciting addition to the system. Loose arm projects well, along with his overall athleticism. Runs a fastball in the low 90’s that can touch the mid-90’s, has a solid slider, and mixes in a curve and a change. I’ll guess Daytona to start 2009, but he could be in Tennessee. Might see Tennessee or Iowa by the end of the year. Don’t have a good read on his projection, as some suggest that his stuff might be able to get sharper and better with more development. Already has a solid fastball in the low to mid 90’s, a solid slider, and usable curve and change.
Micah Hoffpauir, C+. I’m not fond of any 28 year old being considered a key prospect in a system, but there isn’t really anyone else, and you gotta give him credit. This isn’t the same Micah that hit Iowa way back in the day (and briefly got demoted for Brandon Sing). He’s definitely improved. Enough to start regularly in the bigs? Not sold, but enough to at least be in the bigs? Yes. Not many people would’ve anticipated that a few years ago.
Nate Spears, C+. He seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s still relatively young, and he had a big year in the Southern League. I think he can be a big league utility option, as he can handle short enough, a la Theriot. The C+ is more an acknowledgement of him being the upper levels of the system. Should start 2009 in Iowa.
Dan McDaniel, C+. I am probably crazy, crazy, crazy on this one. Power righty arm runs it up there in the mid-90’s. Has a decent to solid curve I think and a usable change and slider. I won’t be surprise if we move him to back to the rotation (started at Chabot I think). Strong season at Boise, looking for him to start 09 in Peoria, although it’s possible they try him as a starter and start him in XST perhaps, with a bump to Boise, and a shot at Peoria.
Dae-Eun Rhee, C+*. This one comes with a huge asterisk. Electric with a fast/curve/change (or split-change) combo when healthy, but the health. I’d look for him to be in Peoria to start 09 whenever he can start pitching again.
Mitch Atkins, C+. End of the rotation type, but he’s up in AAA and he’s coming off a solid year. Should start 2009 as a stretched out arm in Iowa, and could see the bigs. Gets the plus for being at a higher level.
Nate Samson, C. Tailed off a bit at the end of the year, but Samson and Rosa were the two constant cogs in Peoria all year. Like Flaherty, isn’t likely to fit at shortstop, although he’ll probably get another chance to play there in 2009. I’d look for him to start 2009 in Daytona.
Tony Thomas, C. The most disappointing Cubs prospect for me because I held such high expectations. His plate discipline was horrible, which surprised me. The defense was a concern, which wasn’t surprising. Certainly he made a jump and missed Peoria, so you give him the benefit of that entering 2009. I’m not sure where he starts, hunch is they’ll move him on up to Tennessee, but repeating Daytona isn’t the worst idea.
Brandon Guyer, C. The tail off in September was bothersome, but he showed some intrigue with his hot streak in the middle. Can he put it together? Here’s a toolsy, athletic kid, a very Tim Wilken type athlete pick. More of a corner OF, but can play some CF. Has power that is lacking in the system. Considering he was a college kid, and considering he showed enough in Peoria, I think he starts 2009 in Daytona.
Aaron Shafer, C. You certainly don’t want to read too much into Boise work for college arms, but Shafer got off to a solid start. We’ll see if he can get stronger with more time away from the injury. Was only tossing high 80’s supposedly. Should start 2009 in A ball somewhere, probably Peoria, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Daytona.
Chris Carpenter, C. Shaky start, but still is a college arm with two plus pitches, so at the very least, there’s hope he can move as a pen arm if he struggles as a starter. I could see a XST/Boise or Peoria type thing, although I’m hoping it’s just straight to Peoria for him.
Starlin Castro, C. Exciting young middle infielder that got tabbed the 14the best AZL prospect (I think). Put together a solid offensive season and has a shot to stick at short. Likely XST/Boise for 09, I think.

As of now, my next 5 is some mix of Larry Suarez, Junior Lake, Jeffry Antigua, Ryan Searle, and Matt Cerda, I think. That said, a lot of guys can fit in here. Some upper level older guys could be a thought. A back end of the rotation productive guy (Carrillo/Caridad/Chen) may be an idea. A young guy like Jones/Perez could be in the mix (Perez moreso than Jones).

My Tentative Cubs Top 20 Prospect List

toonsterwu — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 06:26:15 -0000

Josh Vitters, B+. Strong season in Boise, but he has to perform in full-season. Look for him in Peoria, with the potential for a bump to Daytona or Tennessee later in the year. Reportedly showing signs of improved defense, enough hope that he can perhaps be in line to replace Aramis at the hot corner in a few years. Arguably, the only elite chip in our system.
Jeff Samardzija, B+. Still qualifies as a rookie. The one high upside arm in our system at the upper levels. Front of the rotation potential. Shark showed a lot of signs of improvement, but needs more work. He’ll be in the bigs in 2009, just depends on what role. I prefer him in the pen.
Jose Ceda, B. I’m not sure about a specific grade here. Part of me thinks B+, as he’s a high upside pen arm with elite stuff. Part of me thinks B, as he needs some more work. Should start 2009 in the minors in AA/AAA, although it’s not impossible he performs well in spring and goes with the big league squad. Could see the bigs in 2009 if he is with us late into the year.
Andrew Cashner, B. He’s still a work in progress. I’m hesitant to put him 4th … but who else? Think Ceda (very similar, although I think Ceda’s stuff is better). I don’t buy into the “work him as a starter” idea and expect the Cubs to develop him in the pen. Maybe he gets extended outings, but that’s typical for pen arms in the minors anyways. I’d guess Daytona to start 2009, particularly since it’s in warmer weather and more of a pitcher’s league, although he should be able to dominate Peoria if they sent him there to start. I think he could see Tennessee, if not Iowa, with an outside shot of the big leagues (but that is assuming everything is perfect).
Wellington Castillo, B. Coming into 2008, he was looked at as a young Hank White of sorts, with the potential for some offensive development. He’s shown enough to suggest that he might be better than that, if the offense develops some more. I think he starts in AA, but Iowa is possible. May get a September callup, but with Soto/Blanco/Hill, there’s no need to force him up.
Tyler Colvin, B-. The late surge got him back up a bit. If he can find some balance between instincts and discipline, he may yet reach some of the projections for him (a young Shawn Green has been tossed about before). He should start 2009 in the minors. I’d guess Iowa, but there’s a shot he starts in Tennessee to “prove it” before getting bumped up. Btw, he’s a corner OF that can pinch in CF, not a CF playing a corner spot, IMO.
Jovan Rosa, B-. Hey, I’m a big fan, so maybe I’m biased here. Certainly, the fact that he is looking like a first baseman somewhat tempers the excitement, but he posted an excellent line for the MWL. His June struggles brought down the overall line. He should be in Daytona to start 2009, likely splitting 3rd and 1st again. Only 21 at the start of 2009, one of the guys that I am really excited to follow, considering the power potential here (43 doubles and his body should fill out a bit more).
Ryan Flaherty, B-. He garnered number 12 prospect in BA’s NWL rankings. Defensive woes likely mean a positional switch down the road … which was speculated upon before the draft. It’ll be interesting to see what the Cubs do here. The positional move likely is to 2nd base, as he doesn’t profile to have the power desired at 3rd. I could see a jump to Daytona if they move him to 2nd. On the other hand, I can see them sticking in Peoria and hoping he can stick at short.
Jay Jackson, C+. I may be putting him a bit high, but boy, was he an exciting addition to the system. Loose arm projects well, along with his overall athleticism. Runs a fastball in the low 90’s that can touch the mid-90’s, has a solid slider, and mixes in a curve and a change. I’ll guess Daytona to start 2009, but he could be in Tennessee. Might see Tennessee or Iowa by the end of the year. Don’t have a good read on his projection, as some suggest that his stuff might be able to get sharper and better with more development. Already has a solid fastball in the low to mid 90’s, a solid slider, and usable curve and change.
Micah Hoffpauir, C+. I’m not fond of any 28 year old being considered a key prospect in a system, but there isn’t really anyone else, and you gotta give him credit. This isn’t the same Micah that hit Iowa way back in the day (and briefly got demoted for Brandon Sing). He’s definitely improved. Enough to start regularly in the bigs? Not sold, but enough to at least be in the bigs? Yes. Not many people would’ve anticipated that a few years ago.
Nate Spears, C+. He seems like he’s been around forever, but he’s still relatively young, and he had a big year in the Southern League. I think he can be a big league utility option, as he can handle short enough, a la Theriot. The C+ is more an acknowledgement of him being the upper levels of the system. Should start 2009 in Iowa.
Dan McDaniel, C+. I am probably crazy, crazy, crazy on this one. Power righty arm runs it up there in the mid-90’s. Has a decent to solid curve I think and a usable change and slider. I won’t be surprise if we move him to back to the rotation (started at Chabot I think). Strong season at Boise, looking for him to start 09 in Peoria, although it’s possible they try him as a starter and start him in XST perhaps, with a bump to Boise, and a shot at Peoria.
Dae-Eun Rhee, C+*. This one comes with a huge asterisk. Electric with a fast/curve/change (or split-change) combo when healthy, but the health. I’d look for him to be in Peoria to start 09 whenever he can get it going again..
Mitch Atkins, C+. End of the rotation type, but he’s up in AAA and he’s coming off a solid year. Should start 2009 as a stretched out arm in Iowa, and could see the bigs. Gets the plus for being at a higher level.
Nate Samson, C. Tailed off a bit at the end of the year, but Samson and Rosa were the two constant cogs in Peoria all year. Like Flaherty, isn’t likely to fit at shortstop, although he’ll probably get another chance to play there in 2009. I’d look for him to start 2009 in Daytona.
Tony Thomas, C. The most disappointing Cubs prospect for me because I held such high expectations. His plate discipline was horrible, which surprised me. The defense was a concern, which wasn’t surprising. Certainly he made a jump and missed Peoria, so you give him the benefit of that entering 2009. I’m not sure where he starts, hunch is they’ll move him on up to Tennessee, but repeating Daytona isn’t the worst idea.
Brandon Guyer, C. The tail off in September was bothersome, but he showed some intrigue with his hot streak in the middle. Can he put it together? Here’s a toolsy, athletic kid, a very Tim Wilken type athlete pick. More of a corner OF, but can play some CF. Has power that is lacking in the system. Considering he was a college kid, and considering he showed enough in Peoria, I think he starts 2009 in Daytona.
Aaron Shafer, C. You certainly don’t want to read too much into Boise work for college arms, but Shafer got off to a solid start. We’ll see if he can get stronger with more time away from the injury. Was only tossing high 80’s supposedly. Should start 2009 in A ball somewhere, probably Peoria, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was Daytona.
Chris Carpenter, C. Shaky start, but still is a college arm with two plus pitches, so at the very least, there’s hope he can move as a pen arm if he struggles as a starter. I could see a XST/Boise or Peoria type thing, although I’m hoping it’s just straight to Peoria for him.
Starlin Castro, C. Exciting young middle infielder that got tabbed the 14the best AZL prospect (I think). Put together a solid offensive season and has a shot to stick at short. Likely XST/Boise for 09, I think.

Another 2009 Post

toonsterwu — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 07:06:05 -0000

Been awhile since I posted here.

Anyhow, some random thoughts on 2009:

1. Use the assets that you have.

A lot of people want to push the payroll. Hey, if management is willing, fine. That said, we already have one of the highest payrolls in the game, and we have several backloaded deals. Spend only in key areas. For example, if you keep Wood, then I wouldn't do anything more than add a LOOGY to the pen (and that might cost 4 mil/year for a good one). Heck, if budget was really an issue, then just go with what we have internally as lefty options (Marshall, Cotts - although neither really are LOOGY's; Rich Hill, Casey Lambert, Jeremy Papelbon and so forth). Use the assets we have to fill out the pen, 5th starter, and the bench. There are options in our system fo ill out those areas.

2. Go young.

With the system lacking in impact talent that's ready, going young, looking for cost-controlled players is a thought. Now granted, you'd have to give assets to give assets, but this is a team built for the now. Look, I'm not averse to a firesale, but the chances of that happening, with the org leadership returning, is slim.

So, what does it mean to go young? You could be literal about it and target the rumored availability of Delmon Young. Or it could be, and this is my personal preference, making a run at a lefty OF like Jeremy Hermida, who is rumored available because of his struggles (mainly at home) this past year, the fact that all three Marlins OF's are hitting arbitration, and the development of Cameron Maybin allowing them the flexibility of contemplating moves (along with Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison both developing into potential sluggers). They also want to go to a more speed/defense lineup (makes sense for the park and the K's they racked up.

I don't know if we can win a bid, but I think we can make a competitive bid that keeps us in the game.

3. There are places to cut money if push came to shove.

If push came to shove, there are places to cut money. A little bit may make a difference. A guy like Randy Wells can be serviceable as a long man/spot starter/middle reliever if we need to save. I'm okay with going to Koyie Hill if they want to save 2.7 million on Henry Blanco. I am a huge DeRosa fan, but if we push came to shove and we needed to save a little by shipping him off, it's not the end of the world. Just something to keep in mind if a little savings need to happen, and if we land our targets (a lefty bat and a leadoff option would be mine).

4. Shark pen.

I'm not a big fan of Shark in the rotation. He has not had that many innings on his arm, and throwing him in the rotation might mean a strict count that limits the utility of such a move. Furthermore, if we resign Dempster (or get a comparable), then we are looking at a 5th starter, and too much is made of that role at times (for example, Marquis was fine for a 5th starter, although if we can dump his contract and save, we need to). Also, Shark may be more useful in the pen, as a 7th inning option to Marmol/Wood, and allowing Marmol/Wood to rest at times.

5. Be open to gambles.

As constituted, the team can compete in 2009. It won't be easy to fill areas of need, but we need to be open to ideas. The idea is to get over the hump ... not simply get to the hump and hope to get hot, which is what this team, as currently constituted, is, based on the offensive construction.

6. Change the equation.

The uneasy feeling I had about this team all year was that it was prone to cold streaks. Unfortunately, we hit one in the playoffs. To change this equation, we need not only more balance in the lineup, but also a leadoff hitter. Based upon the Theriot experiment at leadoff, I think we need a proven guy for Lou and Soriano to buy into it. I'm not sure Roberts will be available (gut guess says they extend him), and there aren't that many great options out there available. Ichiro might be, and I'd ask on it (although I'm lukewarm on Ichiro overall). That said, Ichiro also has 4/68 left, which is eh. Furcal is the obvious candidate that would work, but you'd need to construct a contract that makes sense for both sides, hence making it a gamble (that is, we need protection on his health; he might want years because of his health and particularly since he is 30 now). Along those lines, keep in mind number 5. If we land Furcal, my preference would be to shop Theriot, as his value is at a peak right now.

7. Resign Wood and Dempster.

The bullpen needs some veteran arms. Instead of spending on a couple setup arms to work on finding a fit with MArmol as the closer, keep Wood and Marmol as a strength, and use what we have.

Dempster is one of the top 5 FA pitching arms. Burnett and Lowe likely will get quite expensive (Yankees may pursue), and Sheets is a big ?. Sabathia is an unlikely target. If Dempster is willing to take a slight discount (perhaps an AAV in that 12/13 range, which sadly, is around middle of the rotation money these days), you might as well take it.

There's obviously more possibilities and ideas. A lot depends on the payroll. Even with some simple guesses on targets and target costs, we are looking in that 130-140 million range. It's hard to imagine that the payroll will go far beyond that.

The Resurgence of Tyler Colvin?

toonsterwu — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 22:17:47 -0000

So, as a Cubs fan, it's been an up and down year following the system. I am excited about some of the younger pieces that have been brought in the last 2 years, mostly under Tim Wilken's guidance. That said, the system is thin at the upper levels.

One of the top guys in the upper levels entering the year was Tyler Colvin. The scouting reports last year were all still fairly decent. Certainly, many people still debate the pick of Colvin at the spot the Cubs did. I never had a problem with it, as I remember the night before the draft Colvin was rumored as a "late first and moving up" type - that said, I understood why people didn't like it. In saying that, I didn't expect Colvin to develop into a superstar. If he developed into a serviceable big leaguer, fine. I definitely saw the chance that his discipline issues may limit him to being either a bench guy or not being in the bigs consistently.

In 2007, Colvin ended the year at AA. In 245 AB's in the FSL, he had a line of .306/.336/.514. In 247 AB's in the SL, he had a .291/.313/.462 line. For a 21 year old, those were solid - except for the K/BB numbers he had (cumulative: 101/15). Bleh. That said, you saw him get compared to guys like Shawn Green.

Thus, entering 2008, he definitely held intrigue. Then ... kaput. Just awful. I think people expected struggles. I definitely did. He was just plain bad, though. Pre-ASB, he had a line of .238/.309/.380 in 361 AB's. I never read any specific reason why people thought he was struggling, but a lot of people had different ideas. One that I somewhat subscribed to was that he was forcing more "discipline", and thus, negating some of his natural instincts. His pre-ASB K/BB was 75/36, and considering last year's 15 total walks, that was a huge improvement. But again, never heard anyone legitimately mention that as a reason. Post-ASB, he's gotten hot, like several guys in our system (Guyer, Wright come to mind). In 118 AB's, he has a .297/.323/.525 line, with a 17/5 K/BB. His season line is at .253/.312/.415, with a K/BB of 92/41. In his last 10 games, he's now raking, .419. In August, he has been at .367/.391/.683.

I feel like I should end on a question of sorts, so I'm wondering what everyone sees for his future. As a Cubs fan, I've had a tough time figuring out where to put him on my list of Cubs prospects, but considering his upswing, I think he's probably safely on as a top 10 guy, borderline top 5 (the system is thin), probably a B- type talent, depending on how he finishes. I think he'll finish this year with Tennessee (there's no need for him in Iowa, which has enough offense and OF's to make a playoff push), but start 2009 in Iowa. I still have my doubts about Colvin's bat ... but IF he can maintain his improved discipline and produce, then yes, I think he can still make the bigs. AGain, never expected a star, still don't. Decent starter was what I hoped for when we drafted him, and I think he still has a shot for that.

Whether or not he has a future with the Cubs, though, is debatable. He's still a corner OF that can pinch in CF, not a CF that plays in the corners. That's a noticeable issue, with 2 long term contracts in RF/LF for us. That said, Fukudome has really struggled. I think Pie and Kosuke will get chances in 2009 (with Reed and maybe another guy) pushing them. If either one struggles, I could see things get revamped. For example, if Pie struggles, Kosuke going to CF could be pondered if Colvin is good enough to get a look.

Anyhow, thoughts on Colvin's present ... and future? Is this just a hot streak, or a sign of improvement.