SB Nation User Blog: toonsterwu

condolences to the kopitzke's

toonsterwu — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:42:10 -0000

condolences to the kopitzke's

did a search on kopitzke and didn't see this get mentioned. If it did, apologies and feel free to delete this. Anyhow, Casey's daughter passed away. Best wishes to his family. He's back with Boise now after taking some time off.

Bob Sacamento's Take on the Cubs System

toonsterwu — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 17:24:21 -0000

Bob Sacamento's Take on the Cubs System

Bob Sacamento is one of the better Cubs minor league guys online. He's over at cubshub.com. Anyhow, he posted his take on the Cubs system. I disagree with his baseline conclusion, but it is a Cubs related link that's worth reading.

My Cubs Top 20 Pitching Prospects

toonsterwu — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 09:09:07 -0000

I’m not going to write as much as last time, largely because there hasn’t been much to change. I meant to do something like this last time, but the interest in the minors wasn’t as high in January. For longer comments, go back and look at my old posts. I had 29 pitchers in my top 50 prospects last time, with another 10 arms fairly close. Only going 20 deep right now. I’ve made some minor changes (as I always note, I am just a fan, so I don’t ever stop and say, this is our list and leave it at that. Furthermore, top prospect lists are more for discussion value). The system is a bit deeper in pitching than hitting, but that isn’t saying much as overall, the system is weak. That said, as I’ve noted, I like the crop of arms we got in the last draft. What do I judge on? Short of it is, I try to judge on everything to get as good a picture as possible. Granted, with the pitchers from the last draft, there isn’t enough performance yet. The projections are best case scenario (with worst case, obviously, a guy flaming out). One final note is that, even if a guy didn’t make my list, that doesn’t mean that I don’t think they won’t make the majors. There’s a lot of other guys that could fit into roles in the big leagues.

1. Jeff Samardzija. Always best to try a guy as a starter before shifting him to the pen. Has the electric stuff, but can the secondary offerings improve? Consistency is key. I see his starting ceiling more as a 2/3 type.

2. Jay Jackson. There are some concerns that his status is based off a “Rich Hill” scenario – that is, a plus breaking ball in the lower levels allows him to dominate. Furthermore, sample size is small. But as I’ve said before, the upside is ridiculously good, and I can see Keith Law’s reasoning to put him ahead of Shark. I hope we slow play this one, as I think he has top of the rotation potential. People point to the need for a 3rd pitch, which is true, but his change and curve are actually usable (the change being more important), albeit both needing more work. No serious mechanical issues, although some tinkering is needed. Should be in Tennessee at some point, but could start in Daytona.

3. Andrew Cashner. There are some folks that think the Cubs will still stretch him to see if his change develops (and thus, becomes a starter). If he’s not, he’s a power pen arm that features a power fast/slider combination (we sure have a lot of fast/slider guys in the system). Electric stuff, like Ceda (Ceda probably had the better stuff), but before anyone gets too far ahead of themselves with Cashner love, he has to become more consistent, otherwise he’s more Kevin Gregg than Brad Lidge. Should be in Tennessee at some point, but could start in Daytona.

4. Marcos Mateo. The big mover and shaker. To think, we got him for Buck Coats. As I always note, I am just a fan. I didn’t realize, when I made my list in January, that he was consistently in the mid-90’s, with a hard slider that clocked in the high 80’s/low 90’s and was appreciably more consistent. Steve Holley noted that some thought he had the best stuff in the system. The change does need work, though, for him to advance as a starter (and to deal with lefty bats), but he’ll probably be in Tennessee to be a starter this year. He’s probably more of a mid-rotation guy if he pans out.

5. Mitch Atkins. A close to ready arm that profiles as a back of the rotation starter or a pen arm. Not sure if he gains enough juice with a pen move to ratchet up the intrigue.

6. Esmailin Caridad. Caridad and Atkins are still close, and I still haven’t budged. Caridad does have nice mechanics, and if he can get a little velo bump on the fastball, he becomes that much more intriguing and jumps ahead of Atkins. Nice 3 pitch arsenal and throws strikes. Mid-end of the rotation strike thrower.

7. Dae-Eun Rhee*. I can’t let go of the health factor for now, and how far away he is. More than likely, the health won’t be a big problem. If health wasn’t a factor, I’d be pondering him as a 3rd or 4th pitching prospect in our system (probably 3rd), considering his excellent 3 pitch arsenal and showing at Peoria. Potential front of the rotation arm if he develops, but let's wait until he gets back.

8. Jeff Stevens. A 4 pitch arsenal, Stevens, a former starter, gets some bonus points for readiness, but he’s more of a middle reliever in the making, with perhaps a chance to develop into a setup man. His velocity picked up a bit when he was moved to the pen.

9. Dan McDaniel. I am a big McDaniel fan. Part of me wants to see him start, as he might be a nice power arm (and again, I believe in the whole, “try everyone as a starter if you think they have some ability before shifting them to the pen for good” philosophy). His arsenal is only a small notch below Cashner’s, and he might be more consistent right now. Should be in an A ball affiliate. If they keep him on a pen track, then he could see Daytona quickly.

10. Kevin Hart. Give him a point for readiness. That said, he is what he is, and that looks to be a middle reliever.

11. Chris Carpenter. Stuff matters, and Chris has it, with an excellent fast/curve combination. Sure, he was inconsistent last year, but I’m willing to give him a mulligan on that. Gotta improve the changeup to develop as a starter. In a best case scenario, he develops into a TOR arm. Peoria or Daytona.

12. Casey Coleman. I’m higher on Casey than a lot of folks, and I know that. Good lineage, good velo on the fastball, good movement on the fastball, and a change/curve combination that holds promise. Add in that he’s only moved to full-time pitching recently, and I love the potential here. I see him more as a middle of the rotation projection if he pans out. Probably starts in Daytona.

13. James Russell. I thought I overreacted a bit on Russell when I made the list in January. He still has a good fast/change combination, and everyone knew he was rushed last year. He showed signs of success. Add in the good lineage, and I gave it another thought and slide him up. If his breaking ball develops, he’s an intriguing mid-end of the rotation type lefty. Keep in mind, though, out of college, some thought he was a pen projection. He might be able to be a late inning lefty (8th inning type) out of the pen. Expect him to start in Daytona or Tennessee.

14. Aaron Shafer. Nice three pitch arsenal, but let’s see if he can get his velocity inching back upwards consistently. Projects as a mid-end of the rotation possibility as of now. I think he starts in Peoria.

15. Casey Lambert. With a plus curveball to go with a solid high 80’s fastball that has good action, Lambert screams LOOGY. Considering our big league lefty situation, he bears watching this year, but probably starts in Tennessee or Iowa.

16. Rocky Roquet. An excellent fast/slide combination, Roquet improved his consistency down the stretch. Should start in Iowa, potentially as their close. Looks like a middle relief/setup guy in the majors.

17. Jeremy Papelbon. Jeremy Papelbon, who, after small hiccup in May, settled down. A nice 4 pitch offering, he should be a solid lefty pen option. I can see him developing into a jack of all trades type pen arm (lefty specialist, long man, spot starter), akin to what Sean Marshall was doing last year. Should be in the upper levels this year, with a shot to reach the bigs.

18. Alessandro Maestri. The first Italian showed improvement in Daytona before succumbing to injury. That said, he still has an excellent slider to go with his fastball, and projects as a middle relief arm. Think Michael Wuertz, perhaps (it’s meant as a positive, although maybe I shouldn’t say that, as many seem to have a horribly negative view of Wuertz).

19. Justin Bristow. Another draft pick from last year, Bristow has a 4 offerings, with his fastball in the low 90’s. He is, like Jackson and Coleman, another guy that only made the move to full-time pitching recently, and I’m hopeful that he’s able to push forward somewhat. Expect him in A ball, probably Peoria. Upside is hard to tell right now, but probably more a mid-end of the rotation type unless things pick up.

20. Larry Suarez. I had a tough time deciding on this last one. Part of me likes the raw upside of the hard throwing lefty Antigua. Part of me thinks Hernandez can take a step forward. That said, the nod goes to our big international signing a couple of moons ago. Suarez came back and flashed his upside last year, albeit, in a really small sample. He does have top of the rotation ability, so he bears watching in the lower levels. I think he’s on a XST/Boise path for 2009.

Hung-Wen Chen/Hong-Wen Chen

toonsterwu — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 06:39:44 -0000

Hung-Wen Chen/Hong-Wen Chen

I've seen it spelled both ways, although the former is how it is listed in our system.

Anyhow, the Cubs farmhand had a decent outing the other day for the Taiwanese NT. Rather than going through the foreign papers, I figured I'd just link to the taiwanbaseball site. He gave up 1 run in 4 innings and touched 92 mph, according to the site.

It's a good experience for him, although from some pictures I've seen, the kid might need to go on a diet. He's a nice arm in the system to have, a bit more upside than your typical system arm, but still not a really valuable commodity, even in our weak system. Fringe fastball that more often than not sits in the upper 80's. Solid secondary options. He might have more juice as a middle reliever/long man type than a starter, which might give him some more value. Similar to guys like Billy Muldowney and Marco Carrillo in some respects. As of right now, I don't think Chen is slated to start the season in the rotation if he is in AA (which is where he likely starts the year).

It's a young Taiwan club this year as a lot of the older veterans aren't playing. Chen is basically their number 2 starter. A borderline top 30 arm in the system, IMO, and I didn't have him in my top 50. Doesn't mean he won't reach the bigs, but that the combination of information we have at the moment suggests that expectations should be a realistic on what Chen might become.

BP (Goldstein's) Top 100 Prospects

toonsterwu — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:50:55 -0000

BP (Goldstein's) Top 100 Prospects

Nothing too surprising on the Cubs front -

Josh Vitters checked in at 34 and Jeff Samardzija checks in at 85. Both seem fair to me.

Two minor league signings, courtesy BA

toonsterwu — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:29:57 -0000

Two minor league signings, courtesy BA

C Shawn McGill and OF Chris Weimer.

It's been awhile since I posted signings, as we haven't had much come across the wire that didn't have to do with trades (And thus were discussed elsewhere). I've liked some if the signings we've done this offseason, particularly the three lefties (Matt Smith, Bill White, and Jason Waddell), along with arms like Vince Perkins and Angel Castro, amongst others. These are minor league signings, after all, so my expectations aren't huge.

Anyhow, don't know much about either.

BA ranked McGill as the 4th best indy league prospect awhile back in this article. Sounds mildly intriguing, although the lack of power, doesn't suggest much of a future for the kid in terms of being able to move up. But hey, we're talking a kid in Indy Leagues last year. We have some decent catching depth in the system, with Castillo in the upper levels, Clevenger either in High A or AA, Carlos Perez and Matt Cerda in the lower levels. Add in a good defensive guy like Luis Flores, Michael Brenly, and Blake Lalli, whose glove behind the plate actually isn't that bad (although it is below average). If I had to take a guess, I'd guess McGill could be in High A Daytona, assuming we hang onto him that is.

Baseball America's Aaron Fitt had this to say about McGill back in 2006 draft

Big Guy, Little Hits
1:02 p.m.: Boston College catcher Shawn McGill, a 23rd-round pick by the Phillies, has a presence when he walks on the field, thanks to a 6-foot-4, 215-pound build. But despite his size, McGill hit just three home runs in 210 at-bats this spring, and one scout called him "the biggest contact bat in the country." McGill does draw his share of walks and is one of BC's fastest players, and his catch-and-throw skills are very solid.
-- Aaron Fitt
________________________________

Had some trouble digging up Chris Weimer information. Chris Weimer is an OF from Nebraska-Omaha. Most of the information below is courtesy http://www.omavs.com/index.aspx?path=baseball (the school's site). If I find any other information from elsewhere, a link will be done.

His collegiate size was 6'3" 215. Weimer's final year in college saw him post a gaudy .405/.468/.837 line with 23 Homers and 17 doubles. He went 13/15 with SB's. The K/BB was interesting - 21/18. He was named a Rawlings/ABCA First Team All-American and a NCBW 2nd team All-American.

With all those accolades, why didn't he get drafted? Well, the reason was that he got in a car accident. and spent the rest of the summer recuperating.

I'm trying to find information on how he did in wooden bat leagues, if he played in them. He was at a community college before UNO. If somehow knows or finds the information, I'd be curious. He feels like a toolsy, Wilken type move. I'd guess that he's at XST to start, and Arizona, with a shot at Boise if all goes well.
_____________________________________

As with all minor league signings, they could be much ado about nothing and simply filler. But it is Cubs news so I thought it was worth mentioning. Weimer intrigues me much more, as he was a college bat that showed some discipline and had some tools (and adjusted to his coaches to help increase his power) but we have to wait and see on the wooden bat translation.

whoa, Dunn's price might be

toonsterwu — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 23:16:48 -0000

whoa, Dunn's price might be

5 million/year? I thought Dunn was shooting too high ... but 5 mil? If that happens, that'll give me a lot of pause. But it sure feels like after Manny signs, one of the vets, Dunn or Abreu, will get a decent deal as the fallback, leaving one potential big loser in the offseason sweepstakes, so it is possible.

BA's minor league signings for 1/19

toonsterwu — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 20:47:23 -0000

BA's minor league signings for 1/19

Two guys have been discussed - Kadokura and Taguchi.

Matt Smith - The Cubs have started to collect lefties with regularity in the past couple of years. In terms of older guys, we've already added Jason Waddell and Bill White. Like those two, Matt Smith could be much ado about nothing. He was the Yankees 4th round pick way back in 2000. He was a part of the Bobby Abreu and the late Cory Lidle deal in 2006. He reached the bigs for a couple cups of tea - 2006 with the Yankees and Phillies, 2007 with the Phillies. He had Tommy John after the 2007 season, so 2008 was about rebuilding himself, and he was only in High A with the Phillies. At his best, Smith was an effective left handed reliever that mixed in a decent fastball with a plus slider that was effective against lefties, and thus, considering the state of our lefty situation (I don't trust Cotts), Smith is definitely, like Waddell and White, worth half an eye's attention. Again, could be nothing more than AAA filler.

Erick Almonte and Joseph Colon don't feel like much more than minor league fillers. At one point in time, Almonte looked like a decent asset coming up with the Yankees, but not anymore.

Bob Sacamento's Top 10 Prospect List

toonsterwu — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 03:40:25 -0000

Bob Sacamento's Top 10 Prospect List

I hope Ryan doesn't mind that I made this as a fanshot. It is Cub relevant, after all. Bob and ArizonaPhil are probably the two best Cubs prospect guys on the internet, although there was this guy on the cubs.com board that was from Boise and was real solid with that stuff.

Other Cubs Prospect Stuff:

Baseball America

Baseball Prospectus' (Kevin Goldstein):

Sickels

MiLB season review:

I don't know who runs GROTA, but they have a list as well:

My List:

scout.com also has a top 20 list, but you can see the cache.

Last but definitely not least, Arizona Phil's Top 15

Two signings

toonsterwu — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 03:35:26 -0000

Two signings

Robinson Chirinos - Long time Cubs farmhand was briefly shifted to catching last year. In all honesty, Cubs are probably gearing for him to become a coach in the system, which I believe has been speculated upon by others before.

Bill White - The type of signing that looks insignificant, and it very well could be. That said, it could also surprise in its value. White is a 30 year old lefty from the Rangers system (used to be in Arizona) that has shown some ability to get lefties out. Should start in AAA, perhaps with Jason Waddell, and both could be guys to perhaps keep an eye out for if we need a LOOGY and don't want to turn to Jeremy Papelbon or Casey Lambert. As noted, it very well could be insignificant, though. When on, he's got a good fastball/slider combination, but he's got control issues.