THANK YOU Paul Allen, for having the wallet of George Steinbrenner with the benevolence of Jack Kent Cooke. THANK YOU for showing up to games even though you live a ways away, and for actively supporting the change philosophy necessary to restore the team to former glory.

THANK YOU Larry Miller, for bringing Allen's commitment to the daily operations of the Trail Blazers as a business operation and corporate citizen, recognizing the team's unusually strong, Brooklyn Dodger-esque connection to the community and working to embrace and foster that connection.  And THANK YOU for ceding most of the spotlight to the guy who really thrives on it, below.

THANK YOU Kevin Pritchard, for being the driving force behind the team's acquistion of some nice role players for the team, guys like Brandon Roy (over people like Randy Foye), LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez...THANK YOU for giving this group of 15 a chance to see what they could accomplish this year, without bowing to the considerable temptation for tinkering in order to win now at tomorrow's cost. 

THANK YOU Nate McMillan, for being the laconic, straightforward father figure in the mold of the Yankees' Joe Torre. THANK YOU for sticking to your guns in the face of Canzonian attacks, the clamor of blogger cranks, and the chatter of national hoopheads, and building a scheme high on fundamentals and team offense that gave the players a foundation on which to rely when youth and inexperience flared. THANK YOU for staying calm and making enough right moves for 54 wins--which doesn't happen without a lot of right moves from the coach. 

{more thank yous, below} 

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That's what Rudy Fernandez had to say after the game about the prospect of going to Houston: "We know Houston is a difficult arena, but we believe. We believe." (That's in Joe Freeman's recap at The O, but you should check out the profile/news piece on Rudy that's also in today's editions.) After a game like Game 5 in the Garden Tuesday night, how do you not believe?

How can you not become vested in these games, your heart pacing with the rhythm of the ups and downs, hoping for the flash of brilliance from these new young guys who like being here and play so hard they remind us of the magic--small m--years of the Blazers? (Don't look at me for sanity; my developing mancrushes are becoming so disconcerting that I squeal like a 14 year old girl when Rudy hits a three).

So when the Olympic half of the Spanish Armada says he believes, who's to argue? It's not so stupid a belief, despite the long struggles for Portland there--after a regular season where they never threatened the Rockets in Houston, in the playoffs they've had at least a couple chances to win each one, and in the last game actually took control late for a few moments before collapsing in a heap of mistakes. 

There are some solid reasons to favor the Blazers just a little in Game 6, not least of which is a momentum shift that places much more of the performance pressure on the Rockets than on Portland. Several recent first round exits have got the fans and local media a bit spooked, to the point where a loss in Game 6 automatically cedes the series back in Oregon. And then there's that whole how-many-minutes-can-Yao-play-before-he-turns-to-salt question, after yet another 40-minute performance.

Blazer fans for their part take some of the same liberties in their assumptions about a Game 7 sure-win scenario, but if Portland falls it will be the end of an enormously successful season, in which every playoff game was gravy to start with. Our fantasies are just that--what-ifs that aren't unreasonable, just way too much to expect. The threat of losing shouldn't be hanging over this team, threatening to discolor the effort of the whole season. It's ALREADY a huge success.

Houston fans, on the other hand, aren't satisfied with another first round exit, nor should they be. To begin with, the Rockets should have been 2nd seed and mauling the Hornets right now, instead of locked in this matchup that gets uglier and more unsure for them by the game. And they've got plenty of experience and defense to be showing well in the second season. In sum, Blazer fans can be loose and accept whatever outcome occurs in the end. Houston's players and coaches will not receive quite the "ah well, great try!" welcome come salarly negotiation time over the summer. 

So this Game 5 win was (natch) pretty freakin' huge. Shall we talk about it a bit? Sure, why not. Let's start below...

{this way to the basement} 

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Put on your best crazy prospector voice as you say with me, "Reckon we got er-selves a humdinger of a pistol shootin', rootin'-tootin' SERIES now!" If you like hoop at all and that game didn't have you up out of your seat half the time, reach over and give the heart monitor machine a whack--you might not still be alive.

Back and forth it went, from one run to another, one momentum shift to the next. It took some superhuman play from some seemingly superhuman ballers, and a whole lot of overcome adversity, but the Blazers now have what they came to get, because honestly--when you listen to them talk, they're not thinking about championships or WCF appearances or even beating the Lakers in Round 2. They came to get playoff experience, and an understanding of what it takes to win.

They now have that understanding, but I think it still suprises this young team just how much intensity is required to compete for and win a playoff game in the NBA. After the game Brandon Roy joked, Bush-esquely, that it was "hard work to win playoff games." All I ask the team is no "Playoffs Accomplished" banners before they leave for Houston, OK?

Seriously, even if the Blazers lose both games in Houston and then can't stay alive in Game 5 (tickets available 10AM tomorrow, but ONLY through trailblazers.com), this will have been an eminently valuable season for the team's future. Not only do they now grasp just how easy it is to get blown out if you're not loaded for bear from the git-go, they know it's possible to regroup, retain a high level of energy and mostly just go out and play.

That said, I think this team now not only has the tools to win a road game in this series, but the moxie and focus of determination. Houston, while being a beast at home in the regular season (who in the West isn't?), has struggled recently in some key playoff games, which might help explain the number of first-round exits they've had. I actually think with current circumstances the chances are actually better than 50-50 that the Blazers will get that homecourt recovery accomplished. 

{Some of the keys, below} 

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Crossposted at Loaded Orygun...

As the first playoff game in six years approaches, no one--not the players or coaches, broadcasters or pundits, stat geeks or tools scouts, Vegas cons or Omaha housewives--has any idea how the Rockets-Blazers series, or the fate of the Blazers in general, will turn out. I hope, anyway. I can't handle another officiating scandal, for instance. 

You've probably seen some or even most of these numbers before, recently. I thought this would be a good compendium, along with a little analysis along the way, to reflect on the regular season and celebrate over the accomplishments--but also to show that their finish and strong play were no fluke. 

Stats are good for telling you how something has already happened, and can offer insights for the future, but aren't good predicitive tools. What they're best used for here is deciding which teams that looked good to the eye were doing it on solid execution, and which were getting by on smoke and mirrors and are due for retrenchment. 

There are several sources for useful stats info; I'll be looking at NBA.com, Hollinger at ESPN.com, and the great Basketball-reference.com site. I'll look at team stats and individual, team first. 

Get a drink, a smoke, a pillow, whatever you do to make life bearable as Lou Reed once said, and we'll start below....numbers ahoy! (and yeah, that's a warning to the phobic) 

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