SB Nation User Blog: torridjoe

Blazers v NBA Finalists

torridjoe — Sun, 31 May 2009 08:03:11 -0000

Blazers v NBA Finalists

3-3. Not bad, not bad at all! And it's really 4-2 but for the Turkoglu Miracle. 2-2 vs Denver and 0-2 vs Cleveland, but 1-1 vs Boston, who I think you have to include among the elite. 6-8 overall against the very best the league had to offer this year, 5-2 at home (almost 6-1). That's rising to the occasion!

Thank You, Portland Trail Blazers (LO Farewell)

torridjoe — Sun, 03 May 2009 08:04:23 -0000

THANK YOU Paul Allen, for having the wallet of George Steinbrenner with the benevolence of Jack Kent Cooke. THANK YOU for showing up to games even though you live a ways away, and for actively supporting the change philosophy necessary to restore the team to former glory.

THANK YOU Larry Miller, for bringing Allen's commitment to the daily operations of the Trail Blazers as a business operation and corporate citizen, recognizing the team's unusually strong, Brooklyn Dodger-esque connection to the community and working to embrace and foster that connection. And THANK YOU for ceding most of the spotlight to the guy who really thrives on it, below.

THANK YOU Kevin Pritchard, for being the driving force behind the team's acquistion of some nice role players for the team, guys like Brandon Roy (over people like Randy Foye), LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez...THANK YOU for giving this group of 15 a chance to see what they could accomplish this year, without bowing to the considerable temptation for tinkering in order to win now at tomorrow's cost.

THANK YOU Nate McMillan, for being the laconic, straightforward father figure in the mold of the Yankees' Joe Torre. THANK YOU for sticking to your guns in the face of Canzonian attacks, the clamor of blogger cranks, and the chatter of national hoopheads, and building a scheme high on fundamentals and team offense that gave the players a foundation on which to rely when youth and inexperience flared. THANK YOU for staying calm and making enough right moves for 54 wins--which doesn't happen without a lot of right moves from the coach.

{more thank yous, below}

THANK YOU Raef LaFrentz, for giving us something to talk about at the trade deadline, for being perhaps the first player to be readily recognized by an acronym (RLEC), and for keeping the Blazers from being the youngest team in the NBA.

THANK YOU Shavlik Randolph, for being the clearest sign that a game was over by your presence on the court. THANK YOU for trying hard despite that, and giving it your best every time you got a chance.

THANK YOU Channing Frye, for being the most Portland of any Blazer, embracing everything the city has to offer and genuinely forming a love affair with your adoptive home. And THANK YOU for accepting gracefully what must have been a difficult personal comedown, to arrive a promising role player and finish the year as an emergency option or foul fodder.

THANK YOU Jerryd Bayless, for bringing the excitement and playing the role of the only true bonus baby (Oden technically a rookie by injury, Batum too mature in his play, Rudy only an NBA rookie). THANK YOU for the Simba Face.

THANK YOU Michael Ruffin, for arriving midstream and just trying to fit in, like the seasoned pro you are.

THANK YOU Sergio Rodriguez, for helping us get through those games where Blakey and Roy were out at different times. You weren't always a worldbeater, but you were always ready to take on the challenge. And THANK YOU for being half of the Spanish Armada, showing off some pretty fancy passing.

THANK YOU Martell Webster, for working hard, perservering, and even trying to push yourself to help the team down the stretch or in the playoffs.

THANK YOU Rudy Fernandez, for being our Rookie of the Year, setting some nice NBA rook records, and for bringing the ladies to the games. THANK YOU for being the other half of the Armada, for giving us some off the hook reverse alley oop jams, for the OK-3 hand sign as you backpedal, for Rudylucion, and for inventing the phrase "put points on your face."

THANK YOU Travis Outlaw, just for being Travis--and for being the one player on the team you can describe that way and have everyone know what it means...the good Travis, the bad Travis, the funny Travis. THANK YOU for the best line of the year, after 21 pts and 4 assists against the Thunder: when asked where the assists came from, Outlaw's response was "I just got tired." That's Travis.

THANK YOU Steve Blake, for taking the constant criticism and using it as a motivator, believing in yourself and that you were indeed a worthy starting PG in the NBA. THANK YOU for proving it when you were injured and we saw the difference. THANK YOU for those major buckets when you came back, that often made you the crucial "3rd guy" on offense, at a defense-stretching position. THANK YOU for dropping 14 dimesin a quarter and shoehorning yourself into the record books this year with Rudy.

THANK YOU Nic Batum, for hands down the most jaw-dropping moments of the year, so much the sweeter for being on defense. To catch up from behind and swat the ball from a streaking fast breaker headed for an easy deuce, is henceforth known as Batuming the ball. THANK YOU for stepping up to the starting role and manning up on some of the toughest offensive forwards in the NBA, night after night after night. And THANK YOU for that 17/4/2/1/2 against the Nets (on 7-8, no less!) in 32 minutes, showing that for all the promise in so many Blazers, the most may lie inside your angular French frame. And let's not forget the 2-fingered salute to Pau Gasol.

THANK YOU Joel Przybilla, in my view a Defensive NBA 1st teamer this year, and without question the lunchbucket soul of the team. THANK YOU for being the designated guy to not take shit from nobody, directed at him or any other Blazer. THANK YOU for being the NBA's best rebounder of 2008-09, overall and especially offensively. Way to go showing your FT% improvement last year was no fluke, too. And THANK YOU for being a total pro about the debut of the guy below--even to the point of helping him learn how to take your job faster. It takes a certain level of class to teach a guy to make you from a starter into a reserve, and it's why everyone loves you.

THANK YOU Greg Oden, for playing with the weight of the national and local media observing your every move, reporting your slightest failure and dismissing your broad improvements. THANK YOU for working through all of that PLUS your rather freakish injuries, and actually towards the end of the season finding some of that goofy kid we loved when you got here.

THANK YOU for the 3/4 court shot, the video of which you rightfully and successfully "demanded" be made into a commercial, and which is a prime example of that goofiness returning. And THANK YOU for showing there's a reason you were the #1 pick. Don't listen to the haters, you had a very solid rookie year all things considered--and there were flashes of latent dominance on both ends that made us tingle with the thought of regular doses.

THANK YOU LaMarcus Aldridge, for stepping up as the 2nd Guy this year. There has already emerged a messianic player on the Blazers, and we know it's not you, it's the next guy below on this list. But seldom are championships won on the back of one player anymore, and to be totally honest, you have the tools, the committment and the youth to be every bit the uberstud Brandon Roy is. Who's to say might get the accolades when your chapters are written?

THANK YOU for banishing the "soft" label and carrying the team into the playoffs and a homecourt seed with some signifcantly elevated play down the stretch. Inside, outside, foul line, aggressiveness--you showed us why the predictions of greatness are solid ones. And THANK YOU for being the 2nd Guy with that typical Blazer grace, embracing your role and acting as the on-court mentor for the 2nd Unit all season while Brandon got some of dat G2.

And of course....

THANK YOU Brandon Roy. You're 24, and you carry the hopes and fantasies (basketball ones, anyway) of a Blazer-crazy town on your shoulders. You just finished your third year, and you're starting to be mentioned in the same breath as the names on the lips of pundits and fans around the world. And why not, you were worth more wins this year than anyone in the NBA except five players--and those five are pretty good: Bryant, Howard, Paul, Wade, James.

THANK YOU for recognizing your status in Portland, accepting it, demanding it from yourself, and carrying yourself as someone who deserves the honor--while also possessing just enough swagger mixed in with the team-first philosophy to make it cool.

THANK YOU for all those fourth quarters. THANK YOU for 52. THANK YOU for playing with the flu, high on Pepto. THANK YOU for 42 in Game 2. THANK YOU for being the guy who would go to the hole when no one else would or could. THANK YOU for taking all those drops onto your butt when you did, only sometimes getting the call. THANK YOU for cheering on your team as they beat the World Champs without you. THANK YOU for another great All-Star performance, and for making 2nd Team all-NBA. We had lots to be thankful for, didn't we? And how could I leave you without a big THANK YOU for this:

Also...

THANK YOU to the Blazers Assistant Coaches, all of whom did a nice job aiding Nate this year with a pretty big development task, molding so many young players at once.

THANK YOU to Mike Barrett, for being the nice mix of homer and tell-it-like-it-is, and for keeping the next guy down, in line. Also THANK YOU for your excellent blog work. It was better than the regular beat writers, at times, and certainly beneffitted from your close contact with the team. Also THANK YOU for my favorite broadcast line of the year, "If there was a stat for crazy, the Nuggets would lead the league."

THANK YOU to Mike Rice, for the hilarity, the blatant homerism we pretend to think is shameful, and for cheerfully letting your self-deprecation and antics cover up the fact that you're a brilliant basketball analyst. THANK YOU for doing your homework, and actually knowing what the opposing players are capable of and how they play. And THANK YOU for so many lines like Barrett's above, that no single one could stand out enough to matter.

THANK YOU Rebecca Haarlow, for taking a rather silly job seriously, and also doing your homework. Thank you for improving your courtside technique on-camera, and giving actually very strong reports from inside the huddle as the team comes from timeouts. THANK YOU for wearing your crush on LaMarcus like a cheap suit, it's adorable. And THANK YOU for respecting the kwan and never EVER wearing the wrong colors on game night.

THANK YOU to Casey Holdahl and the rest of the Blazers office people, for a splashy website, an aggressive and fun marketing campaign, and a generally well-run and exciting fan experience.

THANK YOU for making believers out of us again. THANK YOU for making it OK to like the hometown team again. THANK YOU for 54 big wins, and a heartbreaking but enormously hard-fought playoff series. THANK YOU for punking the L*kers twice at home, keeping Kobe frustrated in Stumptown. THANK YOU for a league-high number of comebacks, signalling your heart, your talent, your stamina, and even if it wasn't your intent, to make the games that much more exciting and keep us from ever turning one off too soon. THANK YOU for exceeding expectations, doing it with class, and truly, legitimately making it finally OK to say with pride,

RIP CITY!

LO Recap of Game 5: "We Believe"

torridjoe — Wed, 29 Apr 2009 21:54:54 -0000

That's what Rudy Fernandez had to say after the game about the prospect of going to Houston: "We know Houston is a difficult arena, but we believe. We believe." (That's in Joe Freeman's recap at The O, but you should check out the profile/news piece on Rudy that's also in today's editions.) After a game like Game 5 in the Garden Tuesday night, how do you not believe?

How can you not become vested in these games, your heart pacing with the rhythm of the ups and downs, hoping for the flash of brilliance from these new young guys who like being here and play so hard they remind us of the magic--small m--years of the Blazers? (Don't look at me for sanity; my developing mancrushes are becoming so disconcerting that I squeal like a 14 year old girl when Rudy hits a three).

So when the Olympic half of the Spanish Armada says he believes, who's to argue? It's not so stupid a belief, despite the long struggles for Portland there--after a regular season where they never threatened the Rockets in Houston, in the playoffs they've had at least a couple chances to win each one, and in the last game actually took control late for a few moments before collapsing in a heap of mistakes.

There are some solid reasons to favor the Blazers just a little in Game 6, not least of which is a momentum shift that places much more of the performance pressure on the Rockets than on Portland. Several recent first round exits have got the fans and local media a bit spooked, to the point where a loss in Game 6 automatically cedes the series back in Oregon. And then there's that whole how-many-minutes-can-Yao-play-before-he-turns-to-salt question, after yet another 40-minute performance.

Blazer fans for their part take some of the same liberties in their assumptions about a Game 7 sure-win scenario, but if Portland falls it will be the end of an enormously successful season, in which every playoff game was gravy to start with. Our fantasies are just that--what-ifs that aren't unreasonable, just way too much to expect. The threat of losing shouldn't be hanging over this team, threatening to discolor the effort of the whole season. It's ALREADY a huge success.

Houston fans, on the other hand, aren't satisfied with another first round exit, nor should they be. To begin with, the Rockets should have been 2nd seed and mauling the Hornets right now, instead of locked in this matchup that gets uglier and more unsure for them by the game. And they've got plenty of experience and defense to be showing well in the second season. In sum, Blazer fans can be loose and accept whatever outcome occurs in the end. Houston's players and coaches will not receive quite the "ah well, great try!" welcome come salarly negotiation time over the summer.

So this Game 5 win was (natch) pretty freakin' huge. Shall we talk about it a bit? Sure, why not. Let's start below...

{this way to the basement}

Fans watching the game should have recognized two things pretty early: the Blazer bigs weren't getting the same off-ball fouls that plagued them from the beginning in Houston; and Brandon Roy was sick. Pasty, sluggish, haggard-sick, from non-pork flu symptoms. During the shootaround it looked as if he might not even play, and through much of the first three quarters he was clearly off, missing open foul-liners repeatedly and just not bouncing. (He got better; we'll get to that.)

As quickly as four fouls on Joel and Greg in the first set the stage for Houston in Game 4, their absence impacted the play in Game 5. Both men were able to stand Yao up in the key, fronting him and trying to harrass him on the dribble post-pass, without getting the whistle.

Yao played almost the entire first quarter and took exactly zero shots. After a break he came back in the second and continued to not score with deadly accuracy, putting up his first attempt with 6:18 left in the half. He did get going a little after that, taking advantage of periods when both bigs were out and LaMarcus Aldridge was left with the difficult task of guarding. But his early drought was just the ticket for the Blazers, who shrugged off Luis Scola's 17-point compensation for Yao being covered and led after the first, 29-26.

Unlike Game 5, where things started off well with jumpers and then dissolved about five minutes later as Joel and Greg began to suffer the calls, this time the Blazers held firm and resisted a full-on Houston run that got them to within three after trailing by 10 with four minutes left in the first. Stoked with a little confidence, the Blazers maintained that 4-7 point lead through the second quarter as LaMarcus began to heat up despite a tweaked elbow, dropping nine in the 2nd to help close out the half up seven, 50-43--that last hoop coming on a sweet drive by Roy to the hole with .7 left after the bucket.

I suppose because they were ahead at the half instead of behind, the Blazers chose the 3rd quarter to do their choking instead of the pivotal fourth. Smart move!--but watching the devolution was angrying up my blood something fierce. The generally non-stealing Rockets started swatting balls away left and right, leading to easy buckets at the other end and, near the end of the quarter, a Brooks three off an LMA turnover to tie the game at 60.

PDX recovered to hold onto a reedlike two-point edge when the quarter ended, but after such consistently strong play for more than a half, the worries (for me at least) had returned. Do they just get too flustered to play their game when it's close and late?

Answer: nope--at least, not when B-Roy has a bottle of Pepto nearby. Boosted by a pregame IV and fortified by a little Big Pink, in the fourth quarter Brandon was a new man. It took a few minutes; the Rockets got over the hump and actually led by four at 68-64 when Roy came back into the game.

There was one other big difference between this game and the last; in Game 5's fourth quarter it was the Rockets' turn to start committing dumb fouls and taking poor shots. Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes both picked up calls on the same trip, leading to a classic 19-footer that Roy usually hits in his sleep, but on this night was absent until just then.

That was enough for Adelman, he got Artest and Yao back in quickly to replace the former pair. However, things did not change. Battier fouled Roy for a pair of FT, Lowry tangled with Blake who made one, then switched over to bump into Oden, who hit both of his frees. When Greg tried to flatten Von Wafer's mohawk but slapped the ball away instead, that was it for the second unit; Luis Scola came in and the Rockets took some time to talk.

Having set the pace by repeatedly hammering into the paint, coming out of the TO the natural thing to do would be to start launching open jumpers, right? That's in fact what happened, as Travis hit a big three after missing but catching a break on Brandon's O-reeb and passback. Roy liked that idea, and so tossed one up himself, also driving quickly to the hole to make it 79-68 and forcing yet another Houston TO. They got back within five after Artest, Scola and Brooks gave their last gasps, but by this time the Rockets were well into the penalty, and the Blazers kept attacking.

Within that final, 15-0 burst to help salt the game away, Oden was key. He handled the tiring Yao, got strong boxout position to gain multiple key rebounds, and used his presence to open up the floor for those longer jumpshots. It was probably his best defensive stretch of the year, right when it was most needed.

Overall in fact, I believe it was the best total team defensive effort the Blazers have played this year. Houston is so difficult to defend because their ability to draw so much attention to Yao and leave multiple shooters open means that defenders have to truly wear themselves out chasing after guys. (Watching Rudy and Brooks chase each other back and forth under the baseline was a riot!) It means the guards and forwards MUST close out quickly, and then jump right back towards the paint and scrounge rebounds. How'd it work out? LMA 7 REB; Roy 4 REB; Blake 7(!); Rudy 4 and Outlaw 5. Yeah, I'd say they got back.

Stats aside, you could just tell--Blake was not letting Brooks cruise right by him, Rudy was able to contain Battier in the corners, and as I said Blake found another gear last night. There were very few wide open jumper looks for the Rockets, very few backdoor slams that leave defenders looking and pointing fingers at each other afeterwards. After many games where it looked like the idea was to only contest every other shot, the entire team stepped up all at once and made the difference.

I should also say something about the early insertion of Rudy into the game, replacing a series-ineffective Nic Batum. I love Nic, and he brings superior defense and BBIQ to the court when he plays, but he's too thin and rangy to handle either Artest or Battier, and it was killing the Blazers to have him be muscled around.

Rudy is no lockdown defender, but he certainly held his own--and more than made up for it with his scrappiness, slapping balls away as someone else's man came by, creating good movement off the dribble, and even a couple blocks. He only hit 1-4 from distance, but did so many other things that Nate would have to be a stone cold idiot to not at least extend Rudy's minutes in the same way for Game 6--or even start him.

And I have to give special props to what I'd call the NBA Live play of the game, midway through the third as the Blazers built their second double-digit lead before falling back again. Blake pulled down a nice rebound (can't remember if it was the one where he BOXED OUT YAO--believe it!), then got it upcourt and set the halfcourt offense for the pick and roll. LaMarcus was the pick man, but before he set the screen he switched to a slip, heading right for the basket and a waiting Yao.

Yao had to be licking his chops, but what he didn't know was that Joel had gone weakside behind him on the post. As LaMarcus received the ball and continued towards the hole, he quickly bounced it to Yao's left and into the stony hands of Joel, who grabbed it with two hands and rammed it home. You can't spell fundamentals without fun, people--and that was a fun play. The knowledgable Garden crowd went apey, Adelman got the TO, and I watched the reply about three more times. Do you know how many times I've beaten Andrew Bynum with the slip and dish in NBA Live? Reality imitates video!

The Blazers have played relatively poorly in both Houston games this series, aided in part by unbalanced officiating and definitely by their own mistakes and jitters. By tomorrow night, I don't expect a miracle--but I expect the team to have mostly shaken off the "can-you-believe-we're-here" vibe and will give the Rockets all they have.

Will it be enough? I want to predict yes, but the odds are not with Portland. Teams up 3-1 almost always win. On the other hand, in a lot of cases they win Game 5, breaking the other team's will and closing the losers out with force. That COULD have happened last night, to this young and inexperienced team. But this Blazers group had suffered and grown enough, taking their lumps and perservering past them. Win or lose, it won't be because Portland didn't come to play. And that's really all we can ask, as the magic continues and we get at least one more chance to exercise our mancrushes and get our squeal on.

Crossposted at Loaded Orygun...

"Game One? I'm Afraid I Don't Recall any 'Game One', Senator"

torridjoe — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:33:43 -0000

Put on your best crazy prospector voice as you say with me, "Reckon we got er-selves a humdinger of a pistol shootin', rootin'-tootin' SERIES now!" If you like hoop at all and that game didn't have you up out of your seat half the time, reach over and give the heart monitor machine a whack--you might not still be alive.

Back and forth it went, from one run to another, one momentum shift to the next. It took some superhuman play from some seemingly superhuman ballers, and a whole lot of overcome adversity, but the Blazers now have what they came to get, because honestly--when you listen to them talk, they're not thinking about championships or WCF appearances or even beating the Lakers in Round 2. They came to get playoff experience, and an understanding of what it takes to win.

They now have that understanding, but I think it still suprises this young team just how much intensity is required to compete for and win a playoff game in the NBA. After the game Brandon Roy joked, Bush-esquely, that it was "hard work to win playoff games." All I ask the team is no "Playoffs Accomplished" banners before they leave for Houston, OK?

Seriously, even if the Blazers lose both games in Houston and then can't stay alive in Game 5 (tickets available 10AM tomorrow, but ONLY through trailblazers.com), this will have been an eminently valuable season for the team's future. Not only do they now grasp just how easy it is to get blown out if you're not loaded for bear from the git-go, they know it's possible to regroup, retain a high level of energy and mostly just go out and play.

That said, I think this team now not only has the tools to win a road game in this series, but the moxie and focus of determination. Houston, while being a beast at home in the regular season (who in the West isn't?), has struggled recently in some key playoff games, which might help explain the number of first-round exits they've had. I actually think with current circumstances the chances are actually better than 50-50 that the Blazers will get that homecourt recovery accomplished.

{Some of the keys, below}

The biggest thing that kept the Blazers in this game turned out to be their ability to keep level heads throughout all of the valleys in the sine wave that was Game 2. First they had to withstand the role of Yao Ming being played by Ron Artest, who buried shot after shot in the first quarter, including a staggering fadeaway over Travis that you can't really call "over," since Outlaw fell down. to make it 24-18 and give Artest a shweet 15 for the quarter.

You had to be asking yourself at this point, "Is this going to turn out exactly the same as before, just with a different player sparking the rout?" I wouldn't say I lapsed into despair, but I was certainly wary of watching the Blazers fall into the same trap as on Saturday. But one thing was different; Artest's shots were generally further away and better contested than Yao's were.

I suppose the other difference is that Artest can be a dangerous shooter--with danger that cuts both ways. If he gets hot, the rest of the team better begin figuring out ways to get the ball from him when the weather turns inevitably cold. That happened tonight, as by the second half Artest had gone cold but no one told his brain, as he kept launching long-range ill-advised shots to keep the Blazers in it.

So the Blazers really could have tanked it right there and said Oh Well, Thought We Were a Playoff Team a Year Early. Three things happened shortly thereafter that scared away such defeatist thinking:

Dikembe Motumbo's knee failed on him, which is sad for a great player and ambassador for the league, but which could turn out to be huge if it leads to Yao fatigue
LaMarcus hit his second shot of the game after flailing for most of Game One, a patented fadeaway on Scola that seemed to break the ice for him and signal that Luis wasn't going to hose him again this game
Rudy anticipated a Brooks pass beautifully, intercepted it at the top of the key and canned the fast break bucket to tie the score at 24-24.

There was a looooong way to go still, but the first test had been passed. And when Brandon Roy closed the quarter off an LMA block of Brooks at the other end by draining a top-key-three with time running out to make it 28-26, for a minute there it almost looked like the Blazers might even take control of the game.

No such luck. In the second quarter it went back and forth, forth and back. Neither team built a lead of more than four points, and there were multiple lead changes and ties throughout. But another theme was developing, one which persisted the rest of the game: call it the LaBrancus Attack.

For the quarter, the Blazers put up 25 points. Rudy hit a jumpshot, Travis nailed one to start the period--and the rest of the scoring was from one of the studs, 21 points worth. LA hit four straight jumpers and six overall in the quarter--one of them a fader of the kind that makes you scream Nooooo!....whew. They were important shots, as much for LA's psyche as the points they brought; in Game One Aldridge lamented his abandonment of the outside game, so it was dynamite to see him stretch the court as per usual.

The beginning of the third was another lurching, stomach-turning few minutes, as the Blazers started extremely cold despite getting solid open looks. Roy and LA clanged a couple times before Roy was able to drive the lane and bring Portland back within three at 56-59. Scola answered back with four more however, and the Rockets built their biggest lead of the game at 7.

Roy must have sensed the slippage danger as well; as the Rockets (primarily ex-Blazer Von Wafer and Kevin Lowry) had figured out in the first half, a drive down the middle of the lane with a little contact would almost assuredly earn you two shots, so Brandon went to work.

With a little help from Blake and Aldridge, near the end of the quarter the Blazers had taken their own 7-point lead with 1:40 left, and once again it seemed that maybe they were ready to pull away or at least maintain a lead in that neighborhood. Nope: Brooks reverse at the rim, Rudy turnover and a Brooks three, then an unfortunate pass that went too high and Artest took for the jam, and we were tied again at 72. Sigh.

Rudy opened the fourth with a pretty and desperately needed three, and then Blake found LaMarcus for an alley-oop jam that got the crowd a little nutsy and put the Blazers ahead by five. Wafer came back with an And One and then a dunk of his own, and just like that it was once again tied at 77. Be still, my palpating heart! What an exciting, closely contested game--but it was ulcer-inducing.

It went that way for most of the quarter, and with 4:46 left the Rockets held a slim 89-87 lead. It would be their last, but who could tell at the time? Joel Przybilla had gone out moments before with his fifth foul, bringing in Greg Oden, who also had five at the time. Without a center, the Blazers were dead, and Joel needed rest. Could Oden stay in the game?

Well, the answer was actually no: on a ridiculous call in which Aaron Brooks set a pick by backing into Oden in the lane, the big rookie fouled out for the first time in a playoff game. (Enjoy the memory, buddy). But what he did before he left may have saved their season. On a Roy miss that bounced high but short off the left side of the rim, Oden came in from mid-lane quickly and in one motion jumped, grabbed the ball and rammed it home. The crowd went....apeshit!

But he wasn't done. In a bold move that risked his 6th foul, he poked the ball away from Artest from behind and Blake finished with a nice layin to put the Blazers on top. Outlaw hit the same key fourth quarter jumper he's nailed about a zillion times, and then Roy dropped what looked like the dagger--a falling down, time-running-out, blown-up-offensive-set three that once again tizzified the audience. And surely when Outlaw anticipated a Brooks pass, tipped it out front and then took it home for the big jam to give the Blazers a 98-90 lead, that was it, right?

Well, not exactly. Aaron Brooks scored 11 points in the final 27 seconds to force Portland to make a bunch of foul shots, but they did and that was the game. Not having timeouts killed the Rockets down the stretch, but they ALMOST found a way to give themselves a chance for the win.

So the Blazers can pocket this one: that's how you win a playoff game. Stay focused, be agressive and you'll get the calls, don't despair when you get down, don't get cute when you're ahead. And for heaven's sake, be confident--you made the playoffs and got homecourt for a reason.

The Blazers will surely lose another playoff game this season--at least three more at some point in fact--but I guarantee you it won't be because Portland was too in awe of everything to come out and really play. And that was the other goal: put Game One in a lockbox, bury it and pretend it never happened, because it was damn sure not going to happen again.

[crossposted at Loaded Orygun...]

Blazers By the Numbers, Eve of the Playoffs

torridjoe — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 22:20:43 -0000

Crossposted at Loaded Orygun...

As the first playoff game in six years approaches, no one--not the players or coaches, broadcasters or pundits, stat geeks or tools scouts, Vegas cons or Omaha housewives--has any idea how the Rockets-Blazers series, or the fate of the Blazers in general, will turn out. I hope, anyway. I can't handle another officiating scandal, for instance.

You've probably seen some or even most of these numbers before, recently. I thought this would be a good compendium, along with a little analysis along the way, to reflect on the regular season and celebrate over the accomplishments--but also to show that their finish and strong play were no fluke.

Stats are good for telling you how something has already happened, and can offer insights for the future, but aren't good predicitive tools. What they're best used for here is deciding which teams that looked good to the eye were doing it on solid execution, and which were getting by on smoke and mirrors and are due for retrenchment.

There are several sources for useful stats info; I'll be looking at NBA.com, Hollinger at ESPN.com, and the great Basketball-reference.com site. I'll look at team stats and individual, team first.

Get a drink, a smoke, a pillow, whatever you do to make life bearable as Lou Reed once said, and we'll start below....numbers ahoy! (and yeah, that's a warning to the phobic)

The best place to start is with John Hollinger and his team power rankings. You'll think I'm fronting his work here primarily on the basis of his results, when you see them (It's not true; I love anyone who gets past raw stats and looks for the numbers that really define something, and Hollinger is like the Bill James of basketball.) Portland ranks currently--not over the season but now, after the season--third. That's right, behind only the Cavs and the L#kers, heading up a second tier with Orlando, the Celtics, the Rockets(!), the Nuggets and the Spurs.

Hollinger's system extra-weights the most recent portion of the season, so Portland's blazing finish over top competition with big win margins is what's pushed them so high. Just about nobody's hotter the last month, and even among the two teams ahead of them, they've spanked #2 twice in 5 weeks, and forced #1 to OT in their building, without two key starters. Whatever else happens, it's fair to say that an objective look at the season puts Portland as the 3rd best team when the regular season ended--and that's an unreal accomplishment.

It's a bit of a shame that Houston--other than Dallas probably the only West team truly confident they can handle Portland--is the draw for the first round. Any other team, and that includes the L$kers, would have coaches high on Starbucks and donuts the last two days, hair greasy and mussed as they watch tape of the Blazers just dismantling teams everyone assumed they were ill-equipped to handle. Adelman and the Rockets are surely wary, but they know the matchups favor them.

Back to Hollinger: look at the margin in the last 25% of the schedule--20 games, basically: +9.81. It's easily tbe best in the NBA, two full points per game better than the Cavs. That's just absurd for any extended stretch, unless you're on a major roll, dominating opponents. Hey, that sounds like the Blazers! Strong point differential, a better predictor than wins, says rather emphatically that the 54-28 record is no fluke, and neither are the possibilities that the Blazers are within their capacity to advance in this tournament if they play to that level consistently.

If you want an even smaller sample that figures only the most recent games are telling of the immediate future, NBA.com lets you sort for just the last 10 games (why not let you search by date range, at that point people? huh?), and those numbers are as revealing as Hollinger's. Over the last 10, Portland has allowed just under 85 points per game, the fewest by over six points per game to the #2 team, Orlando (which is high since the range is only 30).

If that weren't enough of a shock--Portland leading the NBA in points defense? This Portland team? Maine doesn't have...no, they must mean the Blazers--check out the differential. Portland spent the last game blowing out opponents by an AVERAGE of 15.8 points per game.

That's not a typo. For two weeks, it didn't matter the opponent, they were going down 100-85. In crunch time, fighting a raft of other teams for best possible position, Portland faltered just one time (at Houston, cough). That differential is EIGHT points higher than Cleveland's finish at #2. Sick.

Other highlights of the recent past: #3 FG% (48.9%), #2 Def FG% (43.2%, basically tied with L*kers for #1), #1 in opponent treys (a stingy 31.4%) , #1 in assists/game (16.8), and #2 in assist differential (almost 4 more assists per game). What else can you conclude with that diverse array of rate stats, besides the fact that no one played better ball than Portland down the stretch? Forty-nine percent from the field will solve a lot of problems, boy, but it's been the defense that's really set that all up.

Hopping back to Hollinger, he also lays out his factors very nicely in a sortable table of teams. In contrast to the power rankings, these are static stats summaries that don't weight for recent events, so it's evenly based on 82 games for everyone. Click the columns to sort, click again to reverse the sort, by the way.

What jumps out at me is Portland's offensive efficiency number (points per possessions), #2 just behind Phoenix. It doesn't translate into the Suns' high point totals because Portland also happens to be the 2nd slowest-paced team, getting fewer than 90 possessions per game.

But it means that they make the very most of their trips, and keep the opponents' possessions down and at a lower efficiency. It's a lot of the reason the Blazers have excelled at comebacks--in the fourth quarter, down by 15 or more, etc. They eventually catch up by making the most of their shots.

How does Portland get so efficient? Better than average assist (15% of shots made, for 13th-best) and turnover (22% of possessions with one, for 8th) percentages, for two. Overall shooting percentage--accounting for FT and treys--is also important, Portland at just over 55% total, 8th best as well. (Does it freak you out a little to realize that one of every five possessions is a turnover--and that's good? Definitely caught me by surprise the first time.)

But for the Blazers, efficiency is all about cleaning up the junk. By almost one and a half O-reebs per game more than the #2 offensive rebounding 76ers, Portland has dominated the NBA on the O-glass. Joel and Greg, LaMarcus and Travis have been like papal figures on the court, absolving the fail shooter and blessing the putback. That kind of absolution can prevent major damage from streaky shooting, which of course can get you into trouble hard to get out of.

Defensively the Blazers are no slouches either, collecting a 5th best 75% of available boards--and that's enough to make them the best rebounding team in the Association for 2009, when combined with their O-bound strength. It seems like a small margin--just 3.5% more than even 50/50 odds--but just two teams have a less than 50% rebound rate, that are in the playoffs. And the only one of the top 10 not attending the dance is Oklahoma City(!) It means something.

Before I leave the team stats a word about defensive efficiency. Portland is just barely in the top third, #10 at 104.5 points per 100 possessions. (Houston is 4th, btw--their toughest feature IMO). Still, combined with their #2 offensive rating that's a pretty solid differential...and it's a HUGE improvement over the last several weeks when they were once 18th, perhaps even lower. It's a sign that their defensive prowess recently has made opponents work harder for their points, which is excellent news and a hopeful harbinger for the playoffs.

Who's putting together these numbers for the Blazers? Hollinger helps out with individual player ratings as well. There's a reason the franchise stud is Brandon Roy; he's listed as the #7 player in all of the NBA on a per-minute productivity basis. For reference, the average player produces about 15 "credits" per minute; Roy averages 24. (LeBron leads the league with almost 32, which tells you there's a level between star and galactic superstar).

PER is a good tool to compare starters and those who get regular minutes; for role players, the injured and part timers, it's less interpretable. For instance, Greg Oden does very well on a PER basis; he's the #12 center overall and the #2 rookie to Kevin Love. But does he play enough minutes to make a real-world difference? Not as much. But in a field where everyone has 2000 minutes or more, it smooths everything out and compares apples to apples.

Roy is the #3 shooting guard, behind Kobe and Wade (who is in a league of his own, doubling up the average baller at 30 PER). When people talk about Roy as the complete package at guard, believe it: he's not #1 in any category, but he's strong everywhere, and near the top among the best guards in assists, turnover ratio, offensive and total rebounds, and total shooting percentage. If he were a pocketknife he'd have scissors, a nail file, a toothpick and tweezers to go with three blades and a bottle opener.

The team's fortunes have reached new heights as LaMarcus Aldridge has come of age and begun to dominate parts of the game like never before. It's showed up in his player ratings; he is now listed at #32 PER overall after not even breaking the charts that I can recall before recently. Among SF he is 8th; last time I checked he was somewhere between 13th and 18th I think.

Interestingly, he doesn't show up among the leaders at his position in any raw-stat category except turnovers, at a sick-low 7%, but there he is in 8th overall. Where he really shines is in estimated wins as a result of his play. He moves up to 5th at his position and 24th overall. Roy moves up to 6th overall, stays at 3rd best shooting guard, when it comes to win shares (see what I mean about Hollinger being like Bill James?)

Those are the only two Blazers in the top 50; only one other player shows up among the PER or win share leaders at his position. Can you guess who? That's right...Travis Outlaw. Wait, Travis Outlaw? Yes, say hello to your 20th best small forward by PER, 18th best by win shares. That's a strong testament to his clutch ability and maximized minutes, that he can move UP on win shares, which is a reflection of playing time.

Individual stat honorable mentions, from Hollinger and also Basketball-reference.com:

Three Blazers in the top 50 for TS%: Prizz (3rd), Oden (23rd), Rudy (44th)
Two in the top 20 for AST%: Sergio at 8th (nice job!) and Blake at 19th
Three in the top 50 for lowest TO%: LaMarcus and Roy at 27th/28th, and Travis at 44th
The most consistent O-rebounder in the NBA? Rookie Greg Oden, with 15.7% of all O-reebs collected while in the game. Joel finished 23rd.
Don't worry, Joel gets his revenge on the defensive side, as the #1 D-rebounder in the NBA! Oden is 20th defensively.
Those numbers are good enough for Joel to be crowned 2009's Rebound King, leading the league with 22.8% of all rebounds. Congrats Joel!
LMA was #11 in total minutes with 3004, the only Blazer over 3000.
Brandon the 8th most FG made (638); LMA 13th.
Brandon 8th in attempts; LMA 18th.
Rudy the rookie record for 3s (159); good enough for 13th overall. Also 11th for trey attempts, just under 400.
It was Blake who won the 3FG% crown for the Blazers however, 13th at 42.7%
Brandon the 14th most FT (416), 15th in attempts
Maybe surprisingly, LMA 8th in O-reebs with 234; Prizz tied for 16th. Joel is also 13th in defensive boards, 12th overall, and 12th in boards per game at 8.7
Joel also tied for 19th in blocks with 97. Career year!
Not a single player in the top 20 for turnovers for fouls, an accomplishment worth mentioning for its absence
Brandon 8th in points, 1,765 total; 10th per game at 22.6

Just the facts, ma'am.

For One Night, Roy > Kobe--the LO L*ker Recap

torridjoe — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 19:59:59 -0000

For One Night, Roy > Kobe--the LO L*ker Recap

I hope Dave doesn't mind the extra link this week--man, it's the FAKERS game! And it was soooo sweet...

LO Recap of Grizz Win: Playoff Team Beats Non Playoff Team, Eventually

torridjoe — Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:55:36 -0000

LO Recap of Grizz Win: Playoff Team Beats Non Playoff Team, Eventually

Where I introduce the term "athletic elevation," and apply it to the Blazers overcoming a tenacious team of Grizz.

LO Recap of Suns game--Woooo!

torridjoe — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 09:09:32 -0000

LO Recap of Suns game--Woooo!

Now THAT was a buttkicking.

Blazers .001 out of 3rd seed

torridjoe — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 02:59:26 -0000

Blazers .001 out of 3rd seed

The Spurs just beat the Rockets, the Bulls beat the Hornets, Miami beat the Jazz, the Mavs lost last night. Denver looks to win, but that would still bring them to .627. Portland? .631. Houston? .632. !!

"A Victory for the Word Poise"--Loaded Orygun Nets Recap

torridjoe — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 23:50:52 -0000

"A Victory for the Word Poise"--Loaded Orygun Nets Recap

I swear I heard Rice say this--if so, it's also a Victory for in-game Dewar's....