Or, at least, I for one still think so. And the reason is in one question and one chance:

The Question: of all the teams that will pick in the top 10 (realistically where the Phins will be) which team has actually the most potential to be good in the shortest time? I say Miami, because its Defense is not bad, quite the contrary. Because there is some talent at RB (Bush, Thomas), WR (Marshall, Bess), TE (Fasano) and OL (Long, Pouncey). Because the Phins are coming from consecutive 7-9 seasons that could have been quite better just with better QB play. because the ST are again looking solid, after a bad streak. Sure, many other pieces are needed, to build a contender, a starting WR, one starting OG, one starting CB and one FS. But which team picking in the top-10 does not have holes? I think the Phins simply happen to have less.

The Chance: A.Luck will be in position to pick his own team, and he's close to someone with knowledge of the NFL (his father). Now, where would you want to go? To replace Manning in Indy, in a horrible team? or to leave under his shadow for who knows how long? Or to forgotten Seattle? Or to play for Dan Snyder? perhaps, you would try to steer your choice to the team with the most potential (see above), a winning tradition and with an owner that positively wants to have him?

If I were S.Ross I would order the new GM to immediately start negotiating for the 1st overall pick. Two 1st rounders (2012 & 2013) should do the trick, more is really trying to stretch your luck a bit too much ...

And, I really believe that what has been said (was it Simms?) that Manning would not 'allow' Indy to draft Luck is absolutely credible. If Peyton can play, I cannot see Indy drafting Luck but rather Polian getting as many picks as possible to restock the team for Peyton last run.

I amy live in dream's world but hey, it's free ...

...on the last cuts, ps and further roster moves, I'll offer my two cents on this year's dolphins team.

Oh btw: I haven't posted in a while, due to circumstances, so please cut me some slack ;-)

After all, I cannot say I dislike this roster. To wit:

- I can live with W.Allen being cut while Carrol and Wilson made it. Think age, money, durability and, especially, role. Young players can have a role in ST while Allen was not going to help there. Besides, there was a better nickel corner on the roster, Sapp.

- I can live with Polite being cut, although it hurts me from an emotional standpoint. Multiple accounts and evaluations did not hold him in high regard and his role is being phased out from the Offense, if not from every NFL offense.

- LJ was never anything more than a wild card you play to see what happens.

- I can live with Merling still being on the team and not being traded; first we do not know whether the FO ever wanted to trade him, second, next year I think 3 DL contracts will be over (Langford, Starks & Merling), thus we're going to lose some of them. So why part with him now? Better keep him, while on his rookie contract.

- I can also live with 4TE in the roster, although I suspect it may change again = Mastrud being replaced by another OL and stashed on PS.

- I can also live with Edds being cut in place of Spitler. I also had a somewhat surprised reaction but, come to think of it, what does Edds have that Spitler hasn't? Well: draft status, all the rest goes in favour of Spitler: he has earned a role, he's proved he's tough and durable, he put up a respectable body of work. Edds, none of the above, plus he's elegible for PS while Spitler no longer is. Sorry but, once you think it over a second, it seems pretty obvious. I bet Edds is added to PS, if he clears waivers.

- I can even live with Jerry being tried at ROT, after Murtha's injury. IN the last preseason game he had a better outing, and he was playing OT. So maybe there's hope. And don't forget that, if Murtha does not go down, he likely gets cut, so better to have him now.

On the flip side I have got one concern and one regret.

My concern is the Oline: there I really cannot understand what they are trying to do. First, we keep Incognito as a center because it's his original role and he's not good at pulling. Then we draft Pouncey who struggled at center but excelled at G, in college. And then we proceed to swap their positions ... uhm.

Then, with many experienced solid OGs on the market we sign one waived OT, Colombo, while the OT position seemed solid (Long, Carey, Murtha, before IR) ... uhm again. Then we look the Pats sign Waters and we pick up this Cook guy who is dubbed by Minnesota fans 'concrete feet'. Now, I really hope they know what they are doing there because I can make little sense of it.

Eventually one regret is that this team is missing one player: Ricky Williams. Of this, I do not blame the FO but rather the lockout. If Free Agrency had happened before the darft, then we might have had Bush rather soon and that would have increased the chance to re-sign Ricky. Eventually that would have netted us one extra draft pick b/c there wouldn't have been any need to trade up for a RB in the 2nd round. We might have taken a lesser prospect and have him learn behind Ricky and Reggie, for one year or two. Besides, could you imagine a backfield featuring or Ricky or Reggie? Now, I wouldn't want to be that D-coord ... just a fact: Ricky has got 300+ catches in the NFL and 2500+ yds receving.

SO, let's just hope that some of the bad breaks we had these two past years go the right way and we may be in for an interesting and exciting season. And, if that's not the case, all we have got to do, next year, is find a QB.

Hi everyone,

let me start with a disclaimer: this is my first post and I am well aware that mmy knowledge, compared to some other posters, is in the single digits, in a scale from zero to 100.

However, I happen to be rather tired of reading things like: "this FO (or Ireland, or Parcells) is a joke, they cannot draft squat." let me be clear: I am not an apologist, I am just a fan that wants to know whether he can trust this FO to bring his team to win anything. I've been poondering this post for a while, until I read this entry: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2011/02/there-was-a-depressing-statistic-dolphins-people-once-used-to-explain-the-troubled-state-of-the-franchise-during-the-makeove.html

That's when I turned my attention to the 2008-2010 drafts. For the ease of use, I used my own draft grading system, where I rate players into factual categories:

S: starter, 'nuff said;

C: contributor, ie: back up, part-time starter, once starter, specialt teamer, role-player;

W: wasted, uselss pick;

I: incomplete, injuried or else.

Obivously, categories and categorisations are indeed debatable, but, before ripping me, just notice that categories are based on facts: whether a player is a starter, a contributor or has not done anything for the Phins.

Here is how I rated the past three drafts:

2008 - Draft Picks

1. Long - S

2a. Merling - C

2b. Henne - S

3- Langford - S

4. Murphy - W

6a. Parmele - W

6b. Hilliard - C

6c. Thomas - C

7. Dotson - W

2008 - Undrafted FA

Bess - S

Carpenter - S

Haynos - C

Garner - C

2008 - Trades for picks

Fasano - S

Ayodele - C

Thigpen - C

Total 2008 Draft: 6 starters, 8 contributors, 2 wasted picks.

 

2009 - Draft picks

1. Davis - S

2a. White - W

2b. Smith - S

3. Turner - W

4. Hartline - C

5. Clemons - S

6. Gardner - W

7. Folsom - W

2009 UFA

Baker - C

2009 acquired for picks

McDaniels - C

Totals 2009 draft: 3 starters, 3 contributors, 4 wasted picks.

 

2010 Draft Picks

1. Odrick - I

2. Misi - S

3. Jerry - C

4. Edds - I

5a. Carrol - C

5b. Jones - C

7a. Mccoy - W

7b. Spitler - C

2010 UFA

Wallace - I

Moore - I

2010 Acquired for picks

Marshall - S

Dobbins - C

totals 2010 Draft: 2 starters, 5 contributors, 1 wasted pick, 4 incompletes.

 

Totals 2008-2010: 11 starters, 16 contributors, 7 wasted picks, 4 incompletes.

I hope I would get a pass for any mistakes I incurred in.

Don't know what you think but. for me, these are great results. I can now rationalise better why Steve Ross wanted to replace the coach but not the GM. Here I can see a WHOPPING 27 roster spots filled in through 3 drafts. And the argument that it was easy because the team had a very low talent level from years before does not hold any ground. the FO was paid to restock the team and they did just that. You can see how it was increasingly difficult to find starters as time went by, 6 new starters via 2008 draft, 3 via the 2009, only 1 in 2010 (but they may become more ... or even less).

MY overall (personal) assessment is that this FO did a great job using their draft picks and can really pick players from college ranks. And that even without the plethora of picks that the Patriots usually pile up. One may argue that they have been less effective in FA, which is possible, but I'll leave it to another post.

the one remark I have got, so far: this FO has not been able to select and develop an upper-tier QB; and that might very well be the one thing that holds the team back. To wit: the only year that the team got high-level QB play (2008) the Phins won the division.

Now, think how they acquired that QB: a lucky stroke. Then think how the Pats acquired Tom Brady: can you say lucky stroke?

This anlysis surprised myself too and what I'm going to type may surprised everyone else: might it be that the Dolphins are just one QB away?