SB Nation User Blog: totalloser

Emoting Small Bears

totalloser — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 03:34:03 -0000

It goes without saying that cardinals' fans, to put it mildly, dislike the Cubs as a team. I was curious about everyone's feelings towards individual Cubs' players. So I am hoping to get both a feeling about the person as a player and also a feeling about the non-playing aspects of the player. Perhaps, we can avoid hurling epithets for this exercise. I guess, I'll get us started with my thoughts on some of the current players:

Carlos Zambrano: There is no doubt that he is talented and can even handle the bat. He might be on the downward slope of his career now. But I don't really appreciate his fiery temper. I hated his justification for plunking JimEd a few years ago when the Cubs used to have someone on the team who used to, shall we say, do the bunny hop in the pea patch after a home run, not to mention the kiss-heart thingy.

Milton Bradely: The guy's got tools and talent. The guy's also got a lot of baggage which is why he is well traveled. He has actually endeared himself to me since he became a cubbie. He is slugging 0.173 and has gotten himself tossed already. Someone has to replace Michael Barrett as clubhouse headcase, right? I have to admit that the name is awesome. I can't imagine growing up with a name like that. It reminds me of a student I once had that had the last name Condom (not joking).

Derek Lee: This guy is a really classy player and a good guy. It's too bad that he has not been the same player since that wrist injury. That was such a great season when D-Lee and Apu went back and forth with leading the league before both succumbed to injuries and derailed their seasons.

Aramis Ramirez: This guy can flat out hit. And he flat out destroys our pitching. He seems to be the quiet type of leader that does the talking with his play on the field. I only dislike him because he is a cubbie.

Ryan Dempster: I have to say that I absolutely hate that little flick of the wrist thing that he does before every pitch. But I respect the fact that he probably signed for less money just to remain a cubbie.

Fukudome: His all-star selection last year pissed me off. I think he is way overrated and not worth his contract.

Soriano: I think he has the reputation of being a prima donna. Some of it is probably related to him not wanting to play in the outfield when he was with the Nationals. Rightfully or wrongfully, he is perceived to be a bit selfish.

Last words. As much as I enjoy the rivalry, I have learned to be careful not to indulge in schadenfreude. The season series if far from over.

Pitchers lack of aggression on 2-2 count?

totalloser — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 20:16:29 -0000

I feel that Cards' pitchers (Wainer excepted) are not aggressive enough on the 2-2 count which leads to a full count or worse a BB. Sometimes I see Moina clearly setting up outside the zone on a 2-2, so I wonder if this is Duncan's philosophy vs. the pitchers themselves. I wanted to compare our pitchers to the rest of the league, but it turns out to be more than I could handle right now. But I did manage to compile some data on the Cards' pitchers. (BTW, thanks to houstoncardinal and astrostl pointing me to data at baseball-reference). The data is a bit old (by a few days).

Pitcher	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	BB	BA	OPS	BAbip	NE/2-2	BB/2-2	OBP
Wainer	13	58	54	3	8	0	4	0.148	0.429	0.267	32.76	7.41	0.207
Looper	14	88	79	8	20	1	8	0.253	0.684	0.275	30.68	10.13	0.33
Lohse	15	88	76	2	16	0	11	0.211	0.557	0.271	39.77	14.47	0.307
Colonel	14	77	68	4	14	2	9	0.206	0.666	0.273	36.36	13.24	0.299
Villone	19	36	29	4	5	1	5	0.172	0.581	0.286	47.22	17.24	0.306
Flores	14	22	17	7	6	1	4	0.353	1.147	0.556	36.36	23.53	0.5
Izzy	13	20	14	3	4	0	5	0.286	0.807	0.364	45.00	35.71	0.45
Franklin	17	23	20	3	3	1	2	0.15	0.611	0.167	39.13	10.00	0.261
McCle.	21	35	32	1	4	0	2	0.125	0.325	0.2	34.29	6.25	0.2
Springer	16	21	19	1	4	0	2	0.211	0.602	0.333	42.86	10.53	0.286
Perez	7	12	12	0	1	0	0	0.083	0.167	0.125	25.00	0.00	0.083

All the columns are standard except for NE/2-2 and BB/2-2. NE/2-2 is the percent of time when the at-bat did not end after the 2-2 pitch. I computed it by subtracting the "after 2-2 count" with the "2-2 count" at bats. And BB/2-2 is the number of BBs after reaching a 2-2 count.

My thoughts:

1. My personal impressions on lack of aggression is probably wrong. As a fan, I get so frustrated seeing a BB after a 2-2. I think those moments stick with me more often than other cases when the hitter gets out. I thought that the percentage was over 50%, but I was wrong.

2. OBP of 0.5 and 0.45 for Flores and Izzy are disturbing. I think Izzy's fixed now. But TLR is still very supportive of Flores. What bothers me about Flores is that he gives away bases. I'd rather see him give up single dingers consecutively than walking a few and then give up a big one. I liked Looper's approach last night where he gave up a few single dingers and was aggressive.

3. Villone, Flores, and Izzy have the highest NE/2-2 (47 36 and 45%). I think this data somewhat supports my frustration that they throw away the 2-2 pitch. I wish they would not waste a pitch when many hitters are not chasing.

What are your thoughts?

Does Izzy Induce Heart Attacks? Blasphemy?

totalloser — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 01:51:35 -0000

I don’t think I will get many dissentions when I say that Izzy has been a good guy and solid closer for the Cards ever since 2002. Izzy grew up in Cardinals country in Brighton, IL, just north of STL. He is by all accounts a good solid citizen, except for a trash can punching incident that led to a broken wrist, but that happened long ago as a Met. So why rag on Izzy? First of all, my intention is not to rag on him. Second, I am extremely thankful for his efforts for the last six years including 2006. I can’t really blame the guy for being a trooper and pitching injured in 2006. Plus, 2006 turned out alright, didn’t it? So what’s my problem? Well, I am getting older, and I am afraid that one of these days Izzy will induce me to have a heart attack during the ninth inning.

I feel that Izzy saves are always high drama with more twists and turns than an episode of the Young and the Restless. At first, I thought I was being unfair, because my impression could be colored by his injury year of 2006. But here are some numbers from 2007, which by all standards was a really good Izzy year (see Table 1). I had plotted this info which is a good way of showing time series data, but I couldn’t copy and paste it from my clipboard (anyone, help?). In Table 2, I compare him against 32 other closers/relievers from 2007. I dropped some relievers because they were not the primary closer.

Table 1. Izzy Stats With Cardinals (from fangraph)

Season	ERA	SV	BS	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2002	2.48	32	5	3.78	0	0.98	0.284	66.20%	1.99
2003	2.36	22	3	2.28	0.43	1.17	0.272	75.80%	3.15
2004	2.87	47	7	3.09	0.6	1.04	0.261	72.60%	3.17
2005	2.14	39	4	1.89	0.61	1.19	0.253	87.20%	3.78
2006	3.55	33	10	1.37	1.54	1.46	0.247	85.10%	5.75
2007	2.48	32	2	1.93	0.55	1.07	0.226	76.80%	3.72

In Table 2, I have posted some of Izzy’s stats and ranked them. For example, looking at column 2, ERA, we see that he is ranked ninth or at the top 28th percentile. His ERA was 2.48 which is between the best ERA of 1.38 (J.J. Putz) and 5.07 (Borowski).

Table 2. Izzy vs. Rest, 2007 (from fangraph)

	WHIP	ERA	FIP	LOB%	K/BB	HR/9
Rank	10	9	20	15	27	11
Percentile	31	28	63	47	84	34
Izzy	1.07	2.48	3.7	76.8	1.93	0.55
Best	0.7	1.38	2.2	94	6.31	0.28
Worse	1.49	5.07	4.8	67	1.43	1.93

Izzy is definitely a good closer that is above average according to Table 2. Here are some of my interpretations:

1. Izzy has relatively high walk rate, 3.86 (sorry I forgot to include this in the table), and LOB% of 76.8% that is in the 47th percentile, i.e. average. His WHIP is good. His K/BB is 1.93 or 84th percentile! With the aforementioned stats, I feel less guilty of accusing Izzy of being a heart attack inducer, since people do get on base against him and some get home.

2. Although his ERA is 2.48 or 28th percentile, his FIP is 3.7 or 63rd percentile.

So I will throw out questions which others have asked. Would we want to trade Izzy? Would it be even feasible to trade Izzy seeing that he has a no-trade and no one is heir apparent? I think Izzy has trade value and it might be a sell high time this year. The other thing that I didn’t bring up is his salary compared to other closers. I simply don’t have the salary data easily accessible.

I have to give a disclaimer that this is one of my first attempts at analyzing fangraph data. So please be merciful with your critiques of my fanpost. But I do appreciate your suggestions so that I can learn more about baseball data analysis and baseball in general. I know that I only used one year data, 2007. I am not very efficient so I was too lazy to look at more data.

Why no love for TLR?

totalloser — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:34:03 -0000

I get the impression that most VEBers are not too enthused about TLR.

Here is a quote on TLR from: http://diamondhoggers.blogspot.com

Manager
I look at Tony La Russa as baseball's version of Tom Coughlin in a lot of ways. The ultimate micro-manager who drives his fan base nuts with his miniscule micro-moves. You cannot question his resume, the guy just wins. He also delivered in 2006 with a World Championship. At the same time, those small moves that are more often than not right (and we're left wrong) are so criticsized.

People need to get off La Russa. The guy should be able to write his contract and manage these Cardinals as long as he wants. St. Louis is his town. That's his dugout at the new Busch, just ask Albert Pujols. He is a great in-game manager and adds anywhere from 7-15 wins per year to teams he manages. Consistently he gets more from a roster of less, as much as any skipper in the league. Hot tempered? Sure he is. La Russa won't be around forever, so I ask Cardinal fans to appreciate what they have in him now. I've watched him do his thing since I was a kid and he's an excellent baseball man, and man in general.

=====================================================

I can't but agree with the author of the article. I understand that folks are disgusted about TLR's seemingly preference for vets over youngsters. I am not too thrilled about TLR's conduct in his spat with Rolen, or the wine/DUI incident. I could care less if he eats tofu instead of BBQ. I do like his love of animals, but that's irrelevant to baseball except for WunderBrad's comment. But it seems like we often forget all the good things that he does. Are we too pesimistic as a group and tend to focus on what's not been done versus balancing it with the good things that are associated with TLR? Who would we rather have that is coaching in our division? Would we prefer to have Lou or Dusty? Would even Melvin, Francona (who I liked while living in Philly), or Torre be a better fit? I am surprised that people automatically declare Oquendo better. Where does that come from?

Bringing Back Dream Weaver?

totalloser — Fri, 14 Dec 2007 23:29:25 -0000

I was wondering how others might feel about the Cards bringing back Dream Weaver? I think Jeff's had some success with Cards and Duncan, so it would be good for him to be here again. I am just not sure how well he would fit into Cards' future plans. He should be reasonably priced now (in the bargain bin), and I doubt con-man Boras can do his trick again. I am not necessarily rooting for him to be back, but at least he is a somewhat known quantity with the Cards. Can he be worse than Kip Wells?

Matthew Leach said
(http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071210&content_id=2322494&vkey=news_stl&fext=. jsp&c_id=stl&partnered=rss_stl)

"Would the Cardinals consider bringing back Jeff Weaver?
-- James T.

I asked this question directly of general manager John Mozeliak during the Winter Meetings, and he didn't rule it out. He also didn't show much enthusiasm for the proposition. He did say, though, that the bridge isn't completely burned.

The deal is this: Scott Boras is not going to move quickly on Weaver as long as he has bigger fish to fry -- such as Kyle Lohse, who reportedly may seek five years. So once the Boras Corp. gets around to dealing on Weaver, the Cards probably hope to be squared away in their rotation.

It's not a non-starter, but it's a long shot."

Also, here is a Mariner's fan's memory of Dream Weaver last season.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2007/12/5/11232/4900

2-2 Pitch Selection, Dunkin's Fault?

totalloser — Wed, 27 Jun 2007 23:52:01 -0000

I've wondered about this for a long time, and I wonder if someone can give me some insight on this. I think Cards' pitchers have been throwing up way too many balls on a 2-2 count leading to a large number of 3-2 counts. I used to think that this is a product of our large cadre of inexperienced pitchers not wanting to challenge hitters on a 2-2 count. Instead, I think it is the way Dave Dunkin wants the pitchers to pictch on a 2-2 count, i.e. to waste a pitch on 2-2 hoping the hitter would chase a bad pitch. I can probably point to many examples, but a prime example is Isringhausen's 2-2 pitch to Shawn Greene last night (Tue 6/26/07). Kelly Stinnet clearly set up outside the strike zone, and Izzy hit the spot. I've heard Joe Morgan talk about how he feels the 2-2 should be pitched, and he seems to put more urgency on the 2-2 than what I've seem the Cards pitchers do. This is all the more frustrating as I've seen Cards pitchers walk batters after going 0-2. I can understanding wasting two pitches to go to 2-2. But why waste another one and go full? If one is able to get in two strikes, why does it have to be so hard to throw a third one? I've never played baseball on any significant level, so my perspective is purely from a fan's point of view. I know Dave Dunkins is almost god in Cardinals Nation because he is an amazing pitching coach, but is he wrong about the 2-2 count?

Thanks for any insights.

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