Inside we close the door on Myth #1 and talk money. 

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This will be the first in a series of posts to focusing on the debate over playoffs in the FBS.  I’ll debunk Myths with the first few, and then get into offering various formulas.  We can debate until our typing fingers turn blue, and thereby avoid the painful lull of the college football off-season.

There is usually ton’s of debate regarding whether or not NCAA Division I football (FBS) should have playoffs.  People get aligned on each side of the argument, and take shots at one another from across the lawn.  I personally fit into the Pro-Playoff’s category, so I want to take the time to point out few of the Myth’s that come whistling toward my head each year from various news outlets.  Over the next couple posts I’ll do just that.  It’ my turn to return fire! Cannon loaded, armor in place, and here we go…

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  The Gators Are on the Clock!

Is the dominance over?  I don’t have an answer yet, but it’s a question well worth asking.  There is a lot of change surrounding the University of Florida’s football program at the moment.  None of those changes by themselves are earth shattering, but there seems to be a lot happening at once.  Florida may come out smelling like roses, however, for UF fans there is enough uncertainty to make one pause.

 I'm saying the Gators are going to simply disappear from the ranks of the top 25. What I am saying it that they have enjoyed an impressive run of dominance over the past several years, and it’s at least possible that run is coming to an end.

After the jump we discuss the factors that got them there, how those factors are being threatened, and why this is a critical time for Urban Meyer and the University of Florida…

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One Fan's Perspective

This is just my perspective on the game last night. I know it will find a little lash back here, but that's okay.  This is the way I saw the game, and consequently see the future.

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I'm trying to compare teams through a filter of line play (OL V DL of coarse), QB play and a couple of sub-factors such as home field, coaching, and special teams.  To see if I can get a tighter hold on projecting teams without, getting lost in the menutia of personal opinion and how "good" a team is overall.  BOTTOM LINE being how do they match up.

Trouble is I need help figuring out how to evaluate a few areas on the fly....

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First: This isn't a who we're going to get segment.  We're dreaming from this point on.

If I could get any recruit for sure these are the ones I'd take as of right now.  Stars mean nothing to me.

QB I don't see an obvious quarterback who just fits us perfectly so I'll pass and pray for rain next year (this is assuming the new kid takes over quickly from the number 3,  "d....de...derin....dadgum it what's his name."

RB Call me crazy but I just really like Brandon Gainer.  I don't think our new philosophy on offense necessarily calls for a home run hitter.  It does require a big back who gets on the whole asap makes one cut and goes vertical...gainer does that better than ANY of the ones I've peaked on video. Wouldn't say no to smiley and Lattimore either (duh!)

FB Do we even still have one of these any more...I mean we're looking to take athletic tight ends and call them full-backs or big recievers right?

WR I'll take Christian Green, Markeith Ambles for size with a side of Chris Dunkley and DJ Jhonson...or at least one of the big ones and one of the fast ones. (at our current rate, we need all three)

TE I'll be honest I only vaguely understand what Jimbo's looking for here, so I'll leave that to him.  I understand the concept, but have yet to see his guys in action, so any two of these will be fine for me.

OL Trust the Trickett  This is another area that is hard evaluate with the new system.  I know what he's looking for smart, mean, fleet of foot, and if it's possible size too.  These things aren't always easy to see in a HS kid playing HS kids, But the Trick hasn't let us down so Have fun Rick and leme know what you decide!

DT I want bigger Tackles....Amp McCloud, Richard Ash, Darius Cummings

DE Brandon Willis (yep DE not DT) & then move McDaniel and McAllister to end. 

SIDE THOUGHT how cool would it be to put this line on the field at once in two years. McDaniel, McRay, McCloud, and McAllister....scary too!!!!

LB Jeff Luc, Christian Jones, Brandon Smith

DB We mostly need safeties, but I will still take Mr Frankenstien 1st.  Then T Rex & Alec ogltree in that order too. 

Now lets all hit the snooze and enjoy this dream as long as we can before we have to wake up!!!

Some freinds and I are Looking to attend the Garnet and Gold Game this spring game and I have a few questions...

Those who are in Tally....

What time is the spring game?

If you don't know where should I check for that info?

Is there an entry cost?

Can ya bring food....legitimately?

 Let me know if there is anything else that I should be aware of.... besides how bad the reciever corp is likely to look.

There is a lot of talk about coaching changes

We've discussed Jimbo's tenure and just how long he is willing to hang around. We have more than hammered home Bobby's need to depart and our feer that prolonging his departure will drive away our offensive staff along with the short term future of our program.  We've even talked about the needed changes on the Defensive staff.  (yes FSUncensored I've finally given in to your point of view...this happened some time during the GT game when we not only couldn't stop the option, but still didn't know how to in the 3rd quarter of said contest).  But, what is the real truth about what's going on in Tallahassee?  And, more importantly, what is going to happen as a result?  I also want to know what you think will happen, so chime in.

Smoke in your eyes

Let's try to blow away the smoke that is often created when these types of things go on when the media ways in on every single rumor to sell their stuff. 

1. Jimbo - What I think is really hapening here is that Auburn has his name on a list, and has perhaps contacted his agent. (who by the way is adept at NEVER saying no he just floats names until he gets "an offer you can't refuse"..sorry)  I don't believe he is interested, and I think we all bit the apple.  You know, the tempting one saying over here! Eat me.  Be fearful of everything everyone does in tallahassee, and more importantly boost my ratings.

2. Bobby Bowden - I don't believe that he is going to stay way too long.  You could argue it's already been too long, but I want to point out that a supposed plan is underway to change that.  My beliefe?  That the plan is more detailed than "awe shucks Bowden" is admiting.  I have believed that the day is set and they are working the plan...just not telling you and me.  Who could blame them.  That wouldn't be prudent.  If you are going to name your sucessor this is the way to do it.  Let people know it's probably on the horizon, don't give a clear and exact time table (in case there are needed adjustments) get the guy, get the guy established, and then make a smooth somewhat note worthy, but mostly expected transistion to the guy who has to replace a coaching legend.  Now that I think about it, this is the ONLY way to do it and expect good results. It helps build recruiting without creating a total void, transition staff, and make sure it's working before you actually pull the trigger.

Possible proof: Let's look at what actions they've taken so far...

a. huge confrontation regarding OC Jeff Bowden AND the future of Bobby as a result of some very lackluster years.

b. the search for THE perfect offensive coordinator and potential replacement should he leave.  (I believe they were very intentional here i.e. "bobby go get someone good cause he's taking your place by xx/xx/20xx).

c. in year one not only highering him, but essentially leting him test drive the team making head coach level changes in offensive staff, recruiting philosophy, and practice style, etc, etc. (very shrude they did this without giving him any title or making this official public knowlege)  I think again this was a trial basis on a handshake.

d. in year two when he performed (top 10 recruiting class, offensive improvement, team moving in the right direction) they gave him a time line for replacement, announced that he was next, while not making it completely final (i.e. date on the calendar publicly) to give Bowden some dignity and time to work fisher in.

e. this year Bowden aggresively starts to groom him on fundraising and boosters to get him ready for a transition.  Guys, you don't do this level of prep for "just in case" this transition is going to happen!

In all I think they have a day on the calendar and we will continue to see events that move us progressively move us toward that date...when...only the insiders know and as is so often the case in FSU football they ain't telling us a dadgum thing until the time is right. 

3. Mickey - I think the Mickey rumors are true...though this is completely a hunch.  IF they are, it will be the next in the series of events that leads us to "the secret day". 

How will it play out?

IF I'm right, It will probably play out like...

a. Andrew's makes an exit,

b. Jimbo gets his staff,

c. Bowden gets a last fling and Grand exit at the end of next season.

d. Jimbo has his staf, his team, and is effectively already the head coach, so there is a happy, smooth transition.

PS - I think this might be why Bowden commented and then took it back...sorrta took it back.  He know's when he's leaving, but they are playing it like "we've got this contract for this many years, but who knows"  Fisher - "he'll leave when he's ready" and "that's his decision" (laughs and smiles cause he KNOWS whith certainty that it WILL happen and they are taking there sweet time getting it ready.  Bowden "I'm not sure"  and "I'll know" and "I'm taking it a year at a time right now." when he knows exactly what's going down. 

Also - They may not have the exact date but, they've got the window. Du!

Of coarse, this is all my take...so what's yours?

Remember to get your questions in to our Clempzon expert by Midnight Central tonight!

You might have noticed that I didn't write this.  In keeping with the community or "nation" theme, if you write something of this size, there's a good chance I will post it on the front page.

Jargon & Rhetoric

"It's all about assignment football."  "We just have to be disciplined."  "The Defensive players just have to trust one another."  When facing triple option, you've heard these statements 1,000 times but for some it doesn't register...so here goes.

Hopefully this isn't "DUH"!! and POINTLESS writing.

The Simple Breakdown

Offensive Key Players/Terms: 

Triple Option:  There are 3 options (viola)

1. First Option: FB (aka Dive or B-back) This option is generally called "give".  In essence you ride the FB all the way to the line of scrimmage. waiting to see if the DE bites on him.  If DE stays at home you "give" him the ball by pulling your hands out.  He feels your inside arm come off is stomach and clamps down (then has a surprising moment where he finds out whether he was a good boy for Christmas, or if Santa left him nothing in his stocking). Ideally the FB carries on like he's got the ball regardless of whether he gets it or not.

2. Second Option: QB This is generally called "keep" because if the FB is covered and the pitch back is covered he.....KEEPS the ball. Now the the FB has already not received the ball the QB has to determine whether to keep or pitch the ball.  There are a variety of possible reads based on the Defensive formation etc. Usually he's reading the SS/FS or the OLB.  If they come to him, he pitches.  If they leave him a gap or stay at home he runs like a bat outta....you get it.

3. Third Option: Pitch, TB, HB, or Wing Back.  Again, you can run triple option out of a billion formations, so the lingo changes from county to county.  We always grew up calling it the "pitch back"  That way no matter what formation you are in, or where the back came from to get in position (outside the QB & toward the sideline)  you know what to call him.  (Literally the pitch back can come from TB HB 2TB or a Wing position, even a motioning WR...confusing huh?  On this option the QB pitches if he is covered or the Defense comes to him.

Defending the Option:

If you sit down to explain triple option to a defense (try explaining it to an offense. it's even worse.) Their eyes usually glaze over somewhere between option 2 and option 3. 

HOWEVER defending the option isn't nearly as hard as it sounds.  There are a variety of ways, of which I will give you a couple short versions.  Then there is the best way, In my opinion which I will explain more.

1. Cover 2 Man - basically the ILB covers the FB/give, the DE tries to cover the QB/keep, and the OLB tries to cover the HB/pitch.  As you can see ther are mismatches aplenty for the Defense...not good.

2. Cover 2 Zone - e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e stays in their zone.  Advantage: corners are sitting in the pitch backs lane, and no lane is really open.  Disadvantages: A. Defense is not aggressive, offense usually gets 3 yards a pop, and the D stays in 3rd and short all day. B. the pesky occasional fake option pass is being loosely covered by a safety.  NOT GOOD

3. Other Formations - Blah Blah Blah EVEN WORSE

4. Cover 1 man - now we are getting some where.  you have an extra man in coverage, so you can switch up whose covering who...this gives you better match ups.  Typically, OLB  on FB.  DE on QB and Saftey or OLB on Pitch.

My Favorite Version of this:

Easy and aggressive... We used this in my high school to defend option...which we saw a few times a year.  The CRASH method. 

5. Variable Cover 1 man.  (you line up cover two and the safety understand that which ever side the option comes to it's their responsibility and the other slides over to be the 1 safety deep.)

ILB on FB

DE on QB

Safety on Pitch

Works this way

a. The trick is that everyone stays at home until they are sure an option is coming. 

b. Once they see that look developing the three people I just mentioned (without thinking  or reading) crash their man....i.e. they take a good angle and go destroy them whether they get the football or not. (ILB lights up the FB...DE takes on the OT and then creams the QB whether he pitches or not....the Safety on that side takes an outside angle and Kills the pitch even if the QB keeps.

c. The other Saftey stays BACK...cover a possible fake pass. and help Corners.

d. Everyone else stays at home until they know for sure who has the ball, and then is usually one step behind the other three players and takle whoever actually has the ball.

Disadvantage.  Medium level passes (triple option teams are usually not very good at this though, so you take your lumps)

Advantages: Defense is not thinking AT ALL, Offense pays for using the triple-o on every play. (the big 3 players are going to get tagged EVERY TIME THE RUN IT), and you get to the players before the blocking scheme has much time to develope.  Plus, everyone else on the team is sort of a back up in case you miss the tackle.

I am shocked.

Not by our players, or play callers, not even by the media. I'm shocked by our fan base. We live in negativity-ville.  We don't support  the players with any amount of consistency. And WE are the next big thing that needs to be corrected for this football team to go to the next level. 

We are watching a team that has played more freshmen than anyone in the country go 6-1 in what is a tougher conference most would like you to believe.  They fall behind against a well-coached and well-prepared team, and the stands just turned completely silent.  What a joke!  Our team plays better on the road these days, why, because there is SO much pressure to perform at home.  At least on the road these kids can let it all hang out and hope for the best.  After VaTech took the early lead it looked like I was watching a nervous child fumble around trying to impress his Dad...a Dad who is never impressed and always wants more. 

This team is getting better with every snap.  (there will be some bumps along the way.)  The team is fighting, growing, learning, responding with character, and becoming a very good football team.  Which is more than I can say for a fan base who is sitting, griping, mis-reading some of the teams growing pains as false hope being shattered, and only getting loud and proud after a group of first year starters takes to the field and just keeps proving the whole world wrong.

Expecting it yesterday

I'm not saying this is a national title contender.  It has yet to be seen wheather we are even an ACC title contender.  What I am saying is we have good play calling, great talent at skill positions.  Good depth most everywhere, and youth with potential where there is not.  Quit expecting them to jump off the highschool cheese wagon and into the college lime light to play like redshirt juniors.

More easily rattled than a first year starter

Here's the thing.  Wheather its on the road or infront of what is quickly becoming a "play my song or I'll go home" crowd, these kids find a way to get it done.  They may come up short in some future games, but the effort, intensity, and learning curv is nothing short of phenominal considering their age and and the newness of our offensive staff.  My take is that the fan base is more easily rattled than our first year starter offense.  What a bunch of pansies. 

I actually got a text from a friend when we fell behind late that said "we are going to lose!"  I promptly replied that it isn't over till the fat hokie sings and then sent him a goble goble when easterling made his circus catch.

Unsatisfied with real results and ongoing progress.

It is going to take some time.  But, we seem unsatisfied with the fact that a VERY YOUNG offense has put points on the board in tough games even when they haven't played very good football.  Progress is there.  Results are there.  Yes the long-term expectations should be high, but lets be realistic about where we are now.  No one is asking anyone to pretend that we are wolrd beater, or to not long for that day to return, but for heaven's sake pat these kids on the back and get loud regardless of the score - THEY'VE EARNED IT!

I've run across a lot of blogs in the past few weeks which seem to hate Jimbo's offensive aproach, and think Ponder is OKAY at best.  I'd like to take a minute to rebutle both.

Jimbo's Approach

1. Misconception: people seem to think Jimbo is a run heavy offensive play caller.  not only is that not true, he failed to run the ball enough in our only loss this year. 

     Freaky D Looks: Wake had two weeks to prep for us, and it paid off. They ran some freaky looking defensive formations.  They... (1) got in cover 2 and bailed the corner at the snap of the ball essentially running a 3 deep saftey look.  (2) they also got in cover 2 and dropped the end (but not the way you usually do) basically giving us a dime look.  They did this off and on the whole game.  They set a trap and we continually sprung it.  Ponder sees cover 2, drops back looks off the saftey and throws only to discover ther is a corner back there floating around in space.  A veteran may have had to settle down and grind through that kind of crazy pass heavy play calling...much less a first year starter.  my only critique of that game is that we kept calling deep passing routes and didn't run the ball enough.

   Jimbo is not run heavy:  He's balance offense, and whatever works today.  He doesn't have a run heavy philosophy, he has a balanced offense philosophy combined with the outlook that you take what the deffense is giving you.  Ever since the Wake game Deffenses have been running their own form of the same scheme.  Colorado ran it more straight up and Miami added an occasional last minute blitz.  But at least 60% of the time they were taking deep drops into pass coverage. 

2. Our response.  Don't force the throw....

    We called more runs, and had the QB mentally prepared to tuck it and run...if they are going to leave that much green space open right in front of you, TAKE IT.  That's not conservative, that's smart!!!

Ponder's Stats

Ponder is young but VERY good. He is becoming in the minds of people a running QB who manages the game well and throws okay.  I disagree with this interpretation.  There are two reasons for it. 

1. Defense is making him a runner:

Wake showed something...something we've seen before.  Instead of pressuring a young QB confuse him.  REALLY disguise your coverages and put A LOT of bodies in the passing lanes.  This has forced Ponder to run the ball more... while I am impressed with his runnig ability, let's be honest.  He's no Charlie Ward or Pat White.  He's not even a good imitation of D'vo.  He moves his feet well and isn't slow, but the real reason he's racking up so much rushing yardage is because that's what deffenses are giving us. OVER AND OVER AGAIN

2. Defenses are afraid to get burned.

I'm not sure wheather this trend will change.  The truth is I think defenses are afraid to get burned.  With the number, speed and size of recievers in our quiver, it's no wonder.

They are making sure to load up against the pass, and forcing us to show we can run it.  Thus Ponder get's low passing stats, and very high rushing stats.

The real question is what's next.  Wake took an extreme aproach to stopping us.  We've adjusted to that over the past couple of games.  Will defenses continue to try to make us one deminsional?  Will they go the other extreme and apply tons of pressure forcing us to make quick throws in man coverage(very dangerous given ponders brain and our recievers speed and size)? or will they come back to a more balanced approach. 

To be honest, I have no idea, but with us matching up so well against NC State, I wouldn't be surprised to see the later.  Just play a balanced d and hope to get some breaks at home.

Either way the kid is young but good and only getting better with each game.  Over time he will show that he is a balanced QB and definatley the man for the Job.

is that once this team gets experience on offense and can keep the player turnover from year to year to a minimal we will have a great team!

Why?

30+ point offense:

As noted by FSUncensored, we hit this mark against Colorado. I fully believe that our offense under Fisher will be capable of handing in 30+ point games against just about anyone they face......before turnovers.  (Give him till middle of next year)

-14 point defense

I also believe that Mickey Andrews has never taken a step back in quality Defensive production. (The years scoring D went down, we had TONS of points off turnovers) He too will keep opponents to 14 points or less. Again this is -14 points before turnovers.

note: scoring D is kind of a dumb stat anyway - there should be a stat in football for points off turnovers (like within 3 plays after a turnover the opponent scores) and points directly scored by opponents D should NEVER be counted against scoring Defense.  I've never understood this about Defensive stats in football.  Your offense turns in two pick 6's and three fumbles whithin field goal range, and suddenly your Defense just gave up 23 points!!!  What!?

Conclusion:   Within the next year, even with a turnover or two per game we should be in contention in every game we play. 

See if that pans out!