I haven't spent much time following the current 2011 draft class.  I would love to hear the feedback of the community in response to a couple of questions...

Who are your top 10 next year from the 2011 draft class?

Who has improved their stock the most since signing?

Who will make the majors next year?

Who has been a disappointment?

Who will probably play in Arizona this fall?

Figured now was a better time to ask while their play (and the way you felt about them pre-draft) is fresh in your brain!

Paul hit his 14th home run tonight and now is OPS'ing north of 1.200 for the year.  Even more remarkably is he has continued to hit with monster power despite making a huge turn around in plate discipline.  Last year he walked 57 times while striking out 157 times.  In about a fourth of the PA's of last year he has already walked 30 times and struck out only 22 times. 

Where does he rank now?  He wasn't in BA's top 100 nor was he one of the top 60 positional prospects on the community list at this site.  Would he be there now?

I have been trying to figure out exactly what I think about Freeman.  He is so young to be in AAA that it is hard to know what to make of his stats.  Here is his line for the year.

.287/.346/.483 with 10 HR 25BB and 48K's in 286 AB's - Clearly those are solid number for a 20 year old hitting in AAA.  He has excellent size at 6'5" 225 and I believe he is said to be a very good defensive first baseman.  I was thinking about comps for him and the best I could come up with at a similar age is Justin Morneau.  

In 2002 at AA (he turned 21 in the middle of that season so a similar age as Freeman who turns 21 in September) Morneau put up this line - .297/.356/.474 with 16HR, 42BB 80K's in 494 AB's.  He is 6'4" 234 now (not sure what he was then). 

It seems Morneau is a very good comparable at the same age for Freeman.  And I would say that a Morneau type of career is his upside.  What are everyone's thoughts on his floor?  Is he a Casey Kotchman type who never develops the big time power, or is a .200 ISOP at 20 an indicator of big time future power to come?

Smoak is consensus top 10 prospect according to this site.  I think everyone that has posted a top list has him somewhere in the top 10.  If not in the top 10 then the top 20.  However, the last month or so has given us an interesting case study for prospecting.  Chris Davis and Jusin Smoak have played the last 30 games or so on the same team against the same pitchers in the same parks.  In that time Davis has way outperformed Smoak.  Here are their respective lines:

Davis   .325/.400/.532 126AB 15BB 30 K's

Smoak  .211/.318/.323  133AB 21 BB 29 K's

 Obviously this sample size is too small to for use in forming a conclusive opinion of the two hitters.  Obviously Smoak is being ranked based on scouting reports and AA numbers, not his above performance.  The great thing is we are able to compare those as well.  In the above comparison Smoak is 9 months younger.  But in the below Davis is 3 months younger.  Here are their AA lines.

Smoak  .328/.449/.481  183 AB 39BB 35 Ks

Davis(2008) .333/.376/.618  186 AB 13BB  44K's

It is clear that Smoak shows a significant advantage in plate discipline at this level and there is no doubt he will continue to hold that advantage over what Davis has done so far at the major league level.  But it is also clear that Davis has a significant advantage in ISO power at both levels. 

What is the point of this post?  I think this is another example of hype and the fallacy of a can't miss prospect.  Pretty much everyone has given up on Davis...and rightfully so.  He was abysmal in the MLB this year.  But what if he would have never been promoted?  What if he was block at the major league level and maintained his above triple slash line at AAA for this entire year?  Would he be ranked similar to Smoak or way below? 

I think there is a good chance that Davis figures things out and goes on to have a long career at the major league level...similarly I think there is a good chance of that happening for Smoak as well.  However, there is also a significant percentage chance that neither has a productive big league career.  I have had a lot of luck in my fantasy league because I get that 3 or 4 out of 10 guys like Smoak don't make it as big leaguers.  When evaluating every prospects value compared to a current major league player there needs to always be a certain percentage chance that they fail that is factored into their value.

This case study was interesting to me because their minor league numbers have so much in common contextually and numerically. 

Preseason Rankings:

BA - Price #2 and Hanson #4

BP- Price #2 and Hanson #13

JS- Price #1 and Hanson #7 (just among pitchers)

Community List - Price #2 and Hanson#23

Accept for BA it seems the prospectors didn't completely buy in to the ridiculous year Hanson had last year.  So far this year here are the stats for the two pitchers:

Price 1-4 3.93ERA 34.1IP 28H 20R 15ER 5HR 18BB 35K's 1.24 GB/FB

Hanson  3-3  1.51ERA 53.2IP 30H 11R 9ER 4HR 15BB 73K's 0.78 GB/FB

 Price obviously has last fall's performance in the majors and the playoffs as a huge plus on his side. 

Hanson obviously has the superior performance at AAA and he is a full year younger than Price.

I think the more Hanson pitches the murkier the argument that Price is the best pitching prospect in baseball becomes.  So I ask....

It seems like the only complaint we hear about Tommy Hanson is his poor (assuming a high GB/FB=good) fly ball/gb rate.  So far this year he is continuing this trend with an early .5.  Last year his rate was .71.  My question is why is his rate so low?  What is it about the way that he pitches that he has such an extreme rate? 

Currently there is one pitcher in the majors that gets very good results with a low rate, Chris Young.  Most attribute that to Petco, which is easily defendable based on his splits from 2007 and 2008, but in 2006 Young was significantly better away from Petco.  Anyway, one common thing between these two pitchers is that they are both very tall (though Young is 5 inches taller than Hanson).  Does height have something to do with flyball rates and how much is this going to hurt Hanson once he reaches the big leagues? 

I was looking at some prospects tonight and spent some time trying to get my brain around Logan Morrison.  The name that popped into my mind as a comp for him is Todd Helton. 

Heltons minor league numbers

994 AB 26HR 150K 150 BB .327 Avg. .414 obp .490 slg. .163 ISO

Morrison last year(I am not going to include all his minor league numbers because he was a high school guy, not a college guy like Helton).

488 AB 13 HR 57 BB 80 K .332 Avg .402 obp .494 slg .162 ISO

I think Helton is a good best case scenario comp for Morrison (though he may not hit as many homers since he won't be playing at Coors).

What do you think?

He has really be dealing in AA since the no hitter.  Here is his line over the last 6 games(including tonight):

35.1 ip 21 h 7 er 48 k's 14 bb  That is an ERA of under 2 and a whip under 1.

There was a reported increase in velocity and he already was considered to have excellent secondary stuff.  John also mentioned that scouts like his presence on the mound.  Where does he rank coming into next year?  I think he is a lock for top 40 and think he may be better than that.  What is the history of the Braves?  Will they start him in AAA next year?  Is there any chance he can make the rotation out of Spring Training?  

Here are there respective lines.

Heyward

379 AB 118 H 72 R 9 HR 19 2B 5 3B 46 RBI 41 BB 68K .311 avg .375 obp .459 slg. 15 SB 1 CS

Freeman

407 AB 128 H 55 R 29 2B 5 3B 17 HR 79 RBI 36 BB 66K .314 avg .372 obp .536 slg. 4 SB 5 CS 

Freeman is one month younger and Heyward is hitting 3rd and Freeman 4th for Rome.  Heyward is generally considered a top 10 prospect.  So the question is...where does Freeman rank.   Heyward obviously has more speed buy otherwise they don't look that different.  Freeman is obviously showing considerably more power.   

I am in a 14 team keeper league.  We only have 3 minor league keeper spots, though you can keep more as rookies.  My team is loaded with young talent and I have a bunch of guys coming off the DL.  My current minor league roster is:

Daryl Thompson

Thomas Hanson

Jeremy Hellickson

Neftali Feliz

I am going to need to drop one of these guys to make room for the DL players.  So of these 4 which one should I drop.

I just read where Josh Johnson has been called up by the Marlins.  Just like Liriano he pitched very well as a rookie in 2006 and just turned 24 in January.  I wasn't following minorleaguebaseball in 2005...what kind of prospect was he before 2006?  What do people expect out of him for the rest of this year and then for his career?  Will 2006 be his best year ever or does he have 1/2 type potential? 

Looking at his stats walks seemed to be the biggest problem.  He had 68 in just over 130 innings.  I know in his rehab starts he has had a 1.83 GO/AO  rate...is that consistent with what he did in 2006?

He just completed a no-hitter where he had 3 walks and 14k's.   He has had two poor games in AA, but otherwise he has been outstanding all year.  It will be interesting to see where he falls next spring on the prospect lists.  IMO he is definitely top 40 and if continues to handle AA he could be higher than that.  I would think with the possibility that Smoltz and Glavine are both done as starters he probably has a chance to make the rotation out of spring training next year.

He has really elevated his game this year.  He tore up AA and is now hitting just as well in AAA.  His strike out rate is still high, but it is improved over last year and is under 25%.  He has 17 homeruns and a .613 slugging percentage for the year.  He is only 22 and I think has established himself as one of the best prospect hitter and imo the best prospect power hitter.  He has also hit for a very solid average.  If the rangers don't promote him I would think he would have to rank as a top 15 prospect going into next year. 

He has spent the last two games(at least) playing second base.  Is this the Dodgers answer to Kent's age and Dewitt's emergence?  Does he have the glove to play second?  That would be a heck of a coup for the Dodgers if they can get his bat in the lineup at 2nd.  He would immediately become the top 2nd base prospect and probably would quickly establish himself as one of the best second base bats in the majors.

Hanson is starting tonight for Mississippi after getting promoted this weekend.  If he can pitch in AA like he has in Myrtle Beach he would have to be making a claim as a top 10 prospect pitcher.  His line so far at Myrtle Beach is:

3-1 .90 ERA 40ip 15h 11bb 49k's GO/AO  0.45

The obvious concern is his ground out rate...we will see if those fly balls turn into homeruns as he faces better hitters. 

He has 8 homers in 83 at bats this year and is now at 19 in 281 at bats as a professional.  That is about a 1 every 15 at bat or so rate.  The impressive thing is he is only 19.  Who are some guys that have had comparable power production at such a young age?  He has also struck out 87 times as a pro so that is a major concern, but what are the thoughts on him as a prospect?

Jesus Guzman plays for Oakland's AA club and is obviously old for his level as he will turn 24 in June.  However he is absolutely raking.  He has a 1.121 OPS and is batting .433 with 5 hr's.  Last year in the Cal league he hit .301 with 25 homeruns.  It seems those kind of numbers out of second baseman should raise some eyebrows, even though he is old. 

The interesting part is he is not even listed in Jon's book and they had 15 prospects rated at a C. 

Does anyone have any information on this guy?  Is his performance solely based on age?   

That Derek Jeter has the more hits at the same age and years played as Pete Rose did.  After 12 seasons and at age 33 Jeter has 2356 hits.  After 12 seasons and at age 33 Rose had 2337.  

Just something interesting about Jeter since he was being discussed below...                                                                                                                                            

I was just looking at Matt Kemp's Vero Beach line from 2005 and was wondering how he was not more highly rated in 2006.  BA had him as the 95th best prospect, but he tore up Vero Beach and was young while doing it.  He hit .306 with 27hr and 23sb.  Were the stikeouts a concern or was he just on nobodies radar prior to 2005?  Whatever the case he is putting up some excellent numbers this year and was obviously underrated last year.

They are the same age and pitching on the same team...which one do you think has the brighter future and why?                                                                                                                                                                                                        

What do you see the Indians doing with him?  With a young Peralta playing really well with the big club do you see them dealing him or possibly moving positions?  

His numbers in AA at 21 are very impressive(especially the power and 45/43 bb/k ratio) for a shortstop.  He obviously doesnt have the raw power Brignac does, but he seems to be playing a lot better in every other aspect of the game.

His line from his last 4 starts is:

25.2ip 21h 6er 6bb 19k's

He seems to be pitching to contact more and keeping his pitch count down.  They took him out after 6.1 innings in his last start and he had only thrown around 80 pitches I think.  His high pitch count has been a big knock on him.  He has also been getting more ground balls recently as well.  I wonder how long until he takes over for Edwin Jackson.  I think the Devil Rays have been right so far in keeping him in AAA so far.  If he continues to go 6+ innings I would think they would have him up pretty soon.

He has been very good so far for the Cubs after struggling last year.  He is 4-2 with a 2.44 era and a barely over 1 whip.  He has 34 k's in 44 innings.  His minor league numbers have always been pretty good, how good do you guys think he will be?  

His bapip is .255 and his GO/FO is 1.31.                                                                                                                                                            

What is the story on this guy?  He has posted very impressive strikeout numbers the past couple of seasons(71 in 59.2 inn last year in the bigs).  His walk totals were very high last year, but were OK in the minors.  Is he a legitimate big league starter?  He must have some pretty good stuff to miss big league bats like that.  His GO/AO was 1.04 last year but has been just .5 this year...

I was interested who was looking good as rookie's of the year in the NL.  It seems after another good outing today Hirsh has to be at the top of the list of rookies.  He has had 4 very solid outings and has avoided the control issues that plagued him when he got called up last year.

Some of the other names have struggled...
Pelfrey
Tulowitski
Kouzmanoff

Some others that maybe would have a chance would if they got called up would be Pence and Braun.

What other rookies that are playing well am I missing?

I don't post on here very often and am not really a part of the community, but I thought some of you might appreciate hearing this...

I was listening to the morning show on MLB radio on XM and they were interviewing Curtis Granderson.  The hosts (Mark Patrick, Buck and Arestus(sp?)) are very big fans of Curtis because of all the things he does for the commumity.  Thus during the interview they spent a large portion of the time discussing these things.  One of the hosts new about the situation with Vt and asked Curtis about it.  Curtis not only acknowledged it, but even mentioned Vt by name.  

Granderson seems to be a class act and it really is amazing how small the world can seem sometimes.  

Can someone give me the skinny I this guy.  His strikeout numbers are absurd and he seems to have decent control.  Why is he not more highly regarded by the prospect lists?  Is it because he hasnt made very many starts?  Do the Dodgers have any plans to make him a starter or is it expected that he will be a bullpen guy in the bigs...

He pitched tonight for Round Rock, but he only pitched 2 innings(0 hits 2 K's)...this seems to be a sure sign that he will be pitching in Houston on Saturday(the next scheduled start for the Astro's fifth starter).  For those in the know is the rule about free agency tied to rookie eligibility?  Whatever the case it will be interesting to see how he does compared to the success of all the other rookie pitchers...

After Marte got called up the Indians also promoted Kevin Kouzmanoff to triple A Buffalo.  Kouzmanoff is an enigma to me.  His numbers this year at AA are amazing and now he is off to a hot start in AAA.  He is 25 or approaching 25, thus I wonder what the Indians will do with him.  He has hit everywhere he has been and I wonder if he will get a shot at the majors this year.  The only "prospect" list I have seen him on had him at 98...should he begin to show up on these?