SB Nation User Blog: tt68

Smoak vs. Davis

tt68 — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 03:28:32 -0000

Smoak is consensus top 10 prospect according to this site. I think everyone that has posted a top list has him somewhere in the top 10. If not in the top 10 then the top 20. However, the last month or so has given us an interesting case study for prospecting. Chris Davis and Jusin Smoak have played the last 30 games or so on the same team against the same pitchers in the same parks. In that time Davis has way outperformed Smoak. Here are their respective lines:

Davis .325/.400/.532 126AB 15BB 30 K's

Smoak .211/.318/.323 133AB 21 BB 29 K's

Obviously this sample size is too small to for use in forming a conclusive opinion of the two hitters. Obviously Smoak is being ranked based on scouting reports and AA numbers, not his above performance. The great thing is we are able to compare those as well. In the above comparison Smoak is 9 months younger. But in the below Davis is 3 months younger. Here are their AA lines.

Smoak .328/.449/.481 183 AB 39BB 35 Ks

Davis(2008) .333/.376/.618 186 AB 13BB 44K's

It is clear that Smoak shows a significant advantage in plate discipline at this level and there is no doubt he will continue to hold that advantage over what Davis has done so far at the major league level. But it is also clear that Davis has a significant advantage in ISO power at both levels.

What is the point of this post? I think this is another example of hype and the fallacy of a can't miss prospect. Pretty much everyone has given up on Davis...and rightfully so. He was abysmal in the MLB this year. But what if he would have never been promoted? What if he was block at the major league level and maintained his above triple slash line at AAA for this entire year? Would he be ranked similar to Smoak or way below?

I think there is a good chance that Davis figures things out and goes on to have a long career at the major league level...similarly I think there is a good chance of that happening for Smoak as well. However, there is also a significant percentage chance that neither has a productive big league career. I have had a lot of luck in my fantasy league because I get that 3 or 4 out of 10 guys like Smoak don't make it as big leaguers. When evaluating every prospects value compared to a current major league player there needs to always be a certain percentage chance that they fail that is factored into their value.

This case study was interesting to me because their minor league numbers have so much in common contextually and numerically.

Price V Hanson

tt68 — Fri, 22 May 2009 13:23:52 -0000

Preseason Rankings:

BA - Price #2 and Hanson #4

BP- Price #2 and Hanson #13

JS- Price #1 and Hanson #7 (just among pitchers)

Community List - Price #2 and Hanson#23

Accept for BA it seems the prospectors didn't completely buy in to the ridiculous year Hanson had last year. So far this year here are the stats for the two pitchers:

Price 1-4 3.93ERA 34.1IP 28H 20R 15ER 5HR 18BB 35K's 1.24 GB/FB

Hanson 3-3 1.51ERA 53.2IP 30H 11R 9ER 4HR 15BB 73K's 0.78 GB/FB

Price obviously has last fall's performance in the majors and the playoffs as a huge plus on his side.

Hanson obviously has the superior performance at AAA and he is a full year younger than Price.

I think the more Hanson pitches the murkier the argument that Price is the best pitching prospect in baseball becomes. So I ask....

Poll

If you were a Major League GM and had the choice of David Price or Tommy Hanson, who would you choose to be on your team?

David Price

121 votes

Tommy Hanson

153 votes

274 votes | Poll has closed

Tommy Hanson and Fly Balls...

tt68 — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 14:48:44 -0000

It seems like the only complaint we hear about Tommy Hanson is his poor (assuming a high GB/FB=good) fly ball/gb rate. So far this year he is continuing this trend with an early .5. Last year his rate was .71. My question is why is his rate so low? What is it about the way that he pitches that he has such an extreme rate?

Currently there is one pitcher in the majors that gets very good results with a low rate, Chris Young. Most attribute that to Petco, which is easily defendable based on his splits from 2007 and 2008, but in 2006 Young was significantly better away from Petco. Anyway, one common thing between these two pitchers is that they are both very tall (though Young is 5 inches taller than Hanson). Does height have something to do with flyball rates and how much is this going to hurt Hanson once he reaches the big leagues?

What do you think about this comp....

tt68 — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 01:54:10 -0000

I was looking at some prospects tonight and spent some time trying to get my brain around Logan Morrison. The name that popped into my mind as a comp for him is Todd Helton.

Heltons minor league numbers

994 AB 26HR 150K 150 BB .327 Avg. .414 obp .490 slg. .163 ISO

Morrison last year(I am not going to include all his minor league numbers because he was a high school guy, not a college guy like Helton).

488 AB 13 HR 57 BB 80 K .332 Avg .402 obp .494 slg .162 ISO

I think Helton is a good best case scenario comp for Morrison (though he may not hit as many homers since he won't be playing at Coors).

What do you think?

Thomas Hanson

tt68 — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 02:26:11 -0000

He has really be dealing in AA since the no hitter. Here is his line over the last 6 games(including tonight):

35.1 ip 21 h 7 er 48 k's 14 bb That is an ERA of under 2 and a whip under 1.

There was a reported increase in velocity and he already was considered to have excellent secondary stuff. John also mentioned that scouts like his presence on the mound. Where does he rank coming into next year? I think he is a lock for top 40 and think he may be better than that. What is the history of the Braves? Will they start him in AAA next year? Is there any chance he can make the rotation out of Spring Training?

Freeman vs Heyward

tt68 — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 03:50:13 -0000

Here are there respective lines.

Heyward

379 AB 118 H 72 R 9 HR 19 2B 5 3B 46 RBI 41 BB 68K .311 avg .375 obp .459 slg. 15 SB 1 CS

Freeman

407 AB 128 H 55 R 29 2B 5 3B 17 HR 79 RBI 36 BB 66K .314 avg .372 obp .536 slg. 4 SB 5 CS

Freeman is one month younger and Heyward is hitting 3rd and Freeman 4th for Rome. Heyward is generally considered a top 10 prospect. So the question is...where does Freeman rank. Heyward obviously has more speed buy otherwise they don't look that different. Freeman is obviously showing considerably more power.

Warning Fantasy Question...

tt68 — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 21:18:15 -0000

I am in a 14 team keeper league. We only have 3 minor league keeper spots, though you can keep more as rookies. My team is loaded with young talent and I have a bunch of guys coming off the DL. My current minor league roster is:

Daryl Thompson

Thomas Hanson

Jeremy Hellickson

Neftali Feliz

I am going to need to drop one of these guys to make room for the DL players. So of these 4 which one should I drop.

Poor Man's Liriano

tt68 — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 16:39:42 -0000

I just read where Josh Johnson has been called up by the Marlins. Just like Liriano he pitched very well as a rookie in 2006 and just turned 24 in January. I wasn't following minorleaguebaseball in 2005...what kind of prospect was he before 2006? What do people expect out of him for the rest of this year and then for his career? Will 2006 be his best year ever or does he have 1/2 type potential?

Looking at his stats walks seemed to be the biggest problem. He had 68 in just over 130 innings. I know in his rehab starts he has had a 1.83 GO/AO rate...is that consistent with what he did in 2006?

Hanson at it again...

tt68 — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 02:38:27 -0000

He just completed a no-hitter where he had 3 walks and 14k's. He has had two poor games in AA, but otherwise he has been outstanding all year. It will be interesting to see where he falls next spring on the prospect lists. IMO he is definitely top 40 and if continues to handle AA he could be higher than that. I would think with the possibility that Smoltz and Glavine are both done as starters he probably has a chance to make the rotation out of spring training next year.

Chris Davis

tt68 — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 01:05:26 -0000

He has really elevated his game this year. He tore up AA and is now hitting just as well in AAA. His strike out rate is still high, but it is improved over last year and is under 25%. He has 17 homeruns and a .613 slugging percentage for the year. He is only 22 and I think has established himself as one of the best prospect hitter and imo the best prospect power hitter. He has also hit for a very solid average. If the rangers don't promote him I would think he would have to rank as a top 15 prospect going into next year.