Help me anlayze the Yanks / Mariners blockbuster trade. The two throw ins are hardly that. Both have a great chance to be quality MLers. One has a huge ceiling and has never pitched beyond short season ball. The other made his debut but is thought of as a #5 starter type. I am wondering which team sought to add the extra two guys. Who would you rather have? Which team pushed for the extra 2 guys?

Poll

Just considering Jose Campos and Hector Noesi, Who would you rather have?

79%

Jose Campos

122 votes

20%

Hector Noesi

31 votes

153 votes | Poll has closed

BBA

1.Matt Moore, lhp,

2.Hak-Ju Lee, ss

3.Chris Archer, rhp

4.Taylor Guerrieri, rhp

5.Alex Colome, rhp

6.Alex Torres, lhp

7.Tim Beckham, ss

8.Enny Romero, lhp

9.Drew Vettleson, of

10.Mikie Mahtook, of

John's Rankings:

1) Matt Moore

2) Hak-Ju Lee

3) Alexander Torres

4) Alex Colome

5) Taylor Guerrieri

6) Mikie Mahtook

7) Brandon Guyer

8) Parker Markel

9) Ryan Brett

10) Drew Vettleson

11) Chris Archer

12) Enny Romero

13) Tyler Goeddel

14) Jake Hager

15) Tim Beckham

Some fairly big differences - Beckham and Archer (and Torres and Mahtook to a lesser degree)

I know that we have beaten the Beckham thing to death but maybe John can do a brief list smackdown.

I ran 2 Rays drafts prior to the signing deadline, one a best available player draft and one with signability as important as ability.

Both drafts' costs were almost identical although I was able to sign far fewer players in the Best Available draft. Leaving aside the players that I chose in both drafts, which draft would you rather have:

*

SIGNABILITY DRAFT (BA Ranking)

*

Bradley Jr., Jackie (#34)

Chafin, Andrew (#38)

Lopez, Jorge #39)

Story, Trevor (#40)

Zych, Toni (#50)

Boyd, Hudson (#58)

Westlake, Aaron(#59)

Lowell, Charlie (#62)

Greene, Tyler (#83)

Murray, Colton (#111)

Moore, Navery (#113)

Kukuk, Cody (#154)

Stites, Matt (#178)

Valdez, Jesus (#195)

Plus the compensation pick at #32A in the 2012 player draft

*

BEST AVAILABLE PLAYER DRAFT (BA Ranking)

*

Guerreri, Taylor (#10)

Norris, Daniel (#16)

Howard, Dillon (#31)

Goetzman, Grandon (#52)

Matt Dean (#54)

Eiermann, Johnny (#84)

Plus compensation picks at #38A, #52A, and #59A

Plus signing 8 extra warm bodies

Poll

Which Draft looks best?

2%

Signability Draft Easily

2 votes

5%

Signability Draft but its close

5 votes

18%

Best Available Player Draft easily

18 votes

11%

Best Available Player Draft but its close

11 votes

64%

What a waste of time

64 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

A little late for this but here is my 12 round Ray's draft 10 days before the deadline. I did one on June 9 that was a BPA draft which I will track as well.

My rules: Following the signing deadline, I will choose which of my picks I will sign based on the budget restrictions below. If a player does not sign in RL, I can not sign him. I will be limited by the Rays signing budget as best as I can calculate from rounds 1-12. If I sign fewer players than the Rays sign, I will penalize my available budget by $25K/man. The amount that I will debit my budget will be either the actual cost of the signed prospect or 100% of slot, whichever is higher.

I tried to rely only on public info prior to June 6 to determine signability status.

Here is my 2011 Rays Draft:

24 1 COF Mahtook, Mikie R COL

31 1 C Susac, Andrew R COL

32 1 OF Goodwin, Brian L JC

38 1 CF/RF Bradley Jr., Jackie L COL

41 1 P Osich, Josh L COL

42 1 SS Story, Trevor R HS

52 1 P Boyd, Hudson R HS

56 1 SP Meo, Anthony R COL

59 1 SP Garvin, Grayson L COL

60 1 P Lopez, Jorge R HS

75 2 LF/1B Dickerson, Alex L COL

89 2 COF/1B Westlake, Aaron L COL

119 3 RP Zych, Toni R COL

150 4 SP Lowell, Charlie L COL

180 5 SS/2B Evans, Phil R HS

210 6 SP Kukuk, Cody L HS

240 7 RP Moore, Navery R COL

270 8 SP Smith, Burch R COL

300 9 3B Buechele, Garrett R COL

330 10 1B Tucker, Preston L COL

360 11 SS/3B Greene, Tyler R HS

390 12 P McCreery, Adam R HS

Just trying to figure out if public info on ability and signability (Sickels, BBA, KLaw, etc) is enough to hang in there with the pros. I of course went with the Rays Draft because of the volume of picks available. This is of course a long term project but early feedback is welcome.

I am looking for a site that can manage my follows list. Just a site where I can add guys to a list and reference their updated stats and game logs. Ideally it should cover MLB, MiLB, and NCAA and as long as I am asking college summer leagues as well. But if nothing else, MiLB would be the highest priority. I am thinking that with all the fantasy and data sites out there, one of them might offer this functionality.

 There seems to have been much more of a run on singable guys by almost every team that I expected.  From the sounds of the comments on the draft threads, I was not alone.   

The Rays are a team that seems to understand how to mine value out of their entire operation.  The selected Guerreri who should cost a bundle to sign.  I am assuming that they thought the pick made sense on their cost benefit analysis.   Do you believe that they thought Guerreri had a unique value compared to the other high school arms that they would later pass over like Henry Owens, Daniel Norris, or Dillon Howard.

I would be disappointed to hear that their draft budget had a hard cap forcing the selection lesser players.  This is afterall a team with an operating budget of that can afford to spend more than $10 million each season on  free agents.  Given the MLB salary structure of players in their first 6 seasons, isn't there a more compelling case for the Rays (or any team) to devote more resources to the draft than to free agents than they do?  

Poll

Realizing it is not who you draft but who you can sign that counts, is it your gut feeling right now that your team

35%

Over emphasized signability over talent and will not get the impact players they needed.

10 votes

10%

Over emphasized talent over signability and will regret the ones who got away.

3 votes

35%

Got the right mix and will look back fondly on this draft.

10 votes

17%

Is the Red Sox and doesn't understand the concept of draftees attending college.

5 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

Rays Shadow Draft Exercise

This is a long term study for me. Hoping to get a few submissions to get a large enough sample to make comparisons between drafts from informed outsiders compared to the Rays front office. This is probably for people who make draft lists as it takes some work to get a good idea of guys you would want through 5 rouunds. Thanks for your help in advance.

My Picks

24 (TB) P Guerreri, Taylor HS

31 (TB) COF Mahtook, Mike COL

32 (Tor-74) SP Norris, Daniel HS

38 (Pit-61) COF Bell, Joshua HS

41 (Cle-67) SP Howard, Dillon HS

42 (SF-86) C Susac, Andrew COL

52 (SD-82) C Hedges, Austin HS

56(SF-207) P Osich, Josh COL

59 (Ari-63) SP Meo, Anthony COL

60 (Tx-204) COF Fisher, Derek HS

75 TB OF Goetzman, Grandon HS

89 (Pit-91) LF/1B Dickerson, Alex COL

119 TB 2B Eiermann, Johnny HS

150 (ChC-429) SP Maples, Dillon HS

180 (Bal-185) C/1B/LF Delmonico, Nicky HS

Teams in ( ) were the actual drafting team.

Count me as someone who is fascinated by the opportunity that the Rays have with their extra picks this year. I plan to run a shadow draft for them (just 5 rounds) and track it long term. I would appreciate some extra help with this study if any of you plan to do the same.

Here's the rules:

Post your Rays shadow draft (5 rounds) following the draft. You can not pick a player the Rays choose in a slot lower than their pick.

Following the Signing Deadline (Aug 15?), I will calculate how much the Rays spent in signing their picks in the first 5 rounds. I will supplement that figure with 50% of the amount that the Rays go overslot from rounds 6-50. There is no science behind the 50% figure but to me it feels like it is probably a generous bit of financial flexibility.

Given that money, you can sign as many players as you can afford. Sorry if your player does not sign, there is no way you can sign him. The player's bonus will be the greater of the player's bonus or 100% of slot at the draft position where you selected him. You get to make the decisions on how to allocate the finances that Stu Sternberg grants to you as calculated above.

MLB Slot values are circulated just before the draft. A slot guideline can be found here.

I am largely making this up on the fly, so if you see there is a way to improve this excercise, let me know.

TB 6 Florida 4

Durham 4 Lehigh Valley 1

Montgomery 6 Mobile 3

Vero Beach 2 Clearwater 1

Columbus 3 Savannah 2

Hudson Valley 4 Brooklyn 1

Princeton 7 Danville 6

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

TB 6 Florida 4

Durham 4 Lehigh Valley 1

Montgomery 6 Mobile 3

Vero Beach 2 Clearwater 1

Columbus 3 Savannah 2

Hudson Valley 4 Brooklyn 1

Princeton 7 Danville 6

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

 How do I make this a Fan Shot?

Taking age and position expectations into account, this is how I see it just using the raw #s.

Durham

Looking great -

• None

Looking good -

• Dan Johnson 1.034 OPS
• Justin Ruggiano .935 OPS
• Elliot Johnson .825 OPS
• Joel Guzman .801 OPS (1.181 last 10 games) 10 errors 9/48 BB/K
• Reid Brignac .799 OPS (Leads IL with 20 doubles)
• Mitch Talbott .644 OPS (11/49 BB/K)
• Nick Debarr .569 OPS
• Jeff Niemann .704 OPS (Bombed last night)
• Jeremy Cummings .391 OPS (Limited duty)
• Juan Salas .678 (Limited duty)

Not so good -

• Fernando Perez .740 OPS (14/9 SB/CS)
• Nathan Haynes .630 OPS (in limited duty)
• Mike DiFelice  .558 OPS (limited duty)
• Chris Mason .841 OPS
• Kirt Birkins  1.183 OPS (Limited duty)

Montgomery

Looking great

• None

Looking good

• Matt Spring 1.139 OPS (Limited duty)
• Wade Davis .646 OPS
• James Houser .667 OPS
• Jake McGee.648 OPS

Not so good

• Sergio Pedroza .674 OPS
• Chris Nowak .725 OPS (C'mon Chris, Pick it up!  HR last night!)
• John Jaso .697 OPS
• Mike Wlodarczyk 1.145 OPS
• Eduardo Morlan 1.028 OPS (DL)

 

Vero Beach

Looking great

• Reed .301 OPS (Just promoted)

Looking good

• John Matulia .860 OPS (Limited duty
• Heath Rollins .681 OPS (10/58 BB/K)
• Jeremy Hellickson .645 OPS (Tailing off a bit)
• David Price .310 OPS (Limited duty)
• Chuck Tiffany .523 OPS (9.24 BB/9)

Not so good

• Quinn Stewart .637 OPS
• Chase Fontaine .563 OPS (10 Errors relegated to mostly DH)
• Ryan Royster OPS .544 (Yikes)
• Nevin Ashley OPS .543
• Matt Walker .803 OPS (6.64 BB/9)

Columbus

Looking great

• Alex Cobb .605 OPS

Looking good

• Greg Sexton .783 OPS (12 errors)
• Jesse Darcy .562 OPS (a bit too old for Low A)
• Austin Hinkle .401 OPS (Limited viewing)

Not so good

• Reid Fronk .735 OPS
• Cody Cipriano .657 OPS
• Stephen Vogt .625 OPS
• Omar Luna .606 OPS (9 errors)
• Mike McCormick .593 OPS
• Glenn Gibson .838 OPS

Sickels draft board as of 5/17

1) Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Great bat, has proven to be solid defender.

2) Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Overall tools package.

3) Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: Hits, fields, and intuition loves him.

4) Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: Love him almost as much as Posey.

5) Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Best college bat but not as valuable defensively as Posey and Beckham.

6) Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Stock has dropped just a hair but still looks great to me.

7) Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Could easily flip with Crow.

8) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Injury knocks him back a couple of notches but still elite.

Hat tip to BTF

A minor point following this great effort but I would appreciate hearing everyone's opinion.

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

75 Words is a lot of words

Poll

In the 8th inning with the Rays leading 7-1 and Iwamura on 1st, the Yanks elected to have Giambi play well behind the runner. Probably cost the Rays a run when Carlos Peña singled with Aki still on first. Should the Rays have taken the base in this ca

46%

Yes, definitely, No way to know how many runs are needed.

12 votes

53%

No, the game was in hand and why give the Yanks any extra reason to get juiced.

14 votes

26 votes | Poll has closed

"Great moments are born from great opportunity.

And that's what you have here tonight, boys.

That's what you've earned here, tonight."

Herb Brooks

Tonight EJax gets the Red Sox for the 2nd time in a week.  The Sox patience at the plate should severely challenge Jackson's command or lack thereof.  The Sox are a great hitting team playing at home and likely with an edge. 

It's a heck of an opportunity because very few pitchers would perform well in this situation.   A strong performance tonight would be a a major skin for Jackson to tack on his wall.  A lesser performance than last week is almost a given based on the task at hand.

Go get em EJax!

 

 

 

Durham

Brignac - .700 OPS

Balfour 9 IP 1 H 5 BB 8 K

Montgomery

John Jaso .719 OPS

Wade Davis 29 IPs 9 BB 15 K 1.17 WHIP

Vero Beach

John Matulia .412 OBP (on DL)

Ryan Royster .603 OPS

Chase Fontaine .553.OPS 10 Errors & Jairo De La Rosa 11 Errors

Jeremy Hellickson 29 IP 2 BB 41 K 

Columbus

Mike McCormick .608 OPS

Alex Cobb 1.98 ERA 1.06 WHIP

Glenn Gibson 7.89 ERA 1.62 WHIP

Brian Flores 18.2 IP 9 BB 25 K  1.29 WHIP

 

 

The thought occured tonight as after Upton laced one up the 3B line and suddenly Manny attacks the ball with all the speed of a Old Timer's Game player and BJ inexplicably jogs to 1st and 2nd with all the gusto that would make Aubrey Huff look like Michael Johnson running the 200m.  I believe every other player on the Rays would make it to 3rd on that play, but because it is a hit to LF, Upton never bothers to look for more than a double.   Which likely cost the Rays a run.

Besides the hustle on the basepaths when it suits me attitude, BJ also has the hit the cutoff man once a week attitude, and the 'forgetting not to overrun the bag when the ball is in close proximity' attitude.

[Standard obligatory disclaimer - Yes I know that BJ, talented though he may be, is no Manny in terms of offensive production.]

 

Just back from a week in the Sunshine State. 

With all the chat from Maddon every year about "There's games to be won" by executing fundamentals, this team gets near failing grades in baseball IQ. 

How is it that the prized CF can miss the cutoff man more times than not?

How is it that same player can overrun a base and get picked of by an alert IFer?

How is it that the prized base stealing champ looks lost running the bases so often?

How is it that the same player can allow the go ahead run to score on a Sac Fly by making a foul ball catch in the bottom of the 8th inning?   

And getting to my headliner, I am at the Yanks game Tuesday.  Bottom 2nd runners at the corners, 1 out, and our best bunter up, I'm thinking that if ARod doesn't move onto the grass (OK turf), then the squeeze is in order.  Bartlett bounces out 4-6-3 to end the threat.  OK I know it is not a given to squeeze there, playing for the big inning is playable there even with Bartlett's stick but the Yanks were defending the big inning by keeping ARod back (just in front of the bag), thus opening the possibility of a bunt single leading to our thumpers.  It didn't work out but like I said, I can understand the logic of playing for the big inning by hitting away with Bartlett.

On to the 9th inning and down a pair, I have no idea if Elliot Johnson can bunt but ARod is playing bearly in and Friggin Rivera is on the mound.  EJ K's looking.  OK maybe the kid can't bunt.  Bartlett's next.  He is the Rays best bunter.  ARod is just in front of the bag.  Strike one.  ARod moves behind the bag.  It's the 9th inning and the Rays are down 2 and the matchup is Rivera and Bartlett and the defense is playing behind the bag.  BUNT THE FRIGGIN BALL!

I know that Bartlett eventually reaches by an IF single to Jeter but still maybe part of the reason that Maddon complains that the team does not manufacture runs is that they never seem to take what the defense is willing to allow.

In the words of Herb Brooks - "You think you can win on talent alone.  Gentlemen you don't have enough talent to win on talent alone."

Longo Watch - 0 for 3 (K, 5-3, HBP, 7)

Bulls lose 3-2 to Toledo.  Cannizaro had an RBI double but was throwqn out at the plate as the tying run in the 7th and stranded the tying run at 3rd in the 9th.  Niemann 5IP 4H 2R 1ER 2BB 5K 1HR 5-5GO-FO

Montgomery loses 4-1 to  Chattanooga.  McGee 6IP 3H 1R 1ER 0BB 7K 0HR 4-7GO-FO

Vero Beach gets 5 in the 9th to beat St. Lucie 8-3!  Rollins 5IP 6H 2R 2ER 0BB 6K 0HR 6-3GO-FO; Matulia 3 singles 2 runs 2 SBs watching the CF till Jennings returns

Columbus is 1 hit (Sexton single) by Savannah 2-0.   Cobb 5.2IP 4H 2R 1ER 0BB 5K 0HR 9-3GO-FO.

 

 

 

OK we have Cliff Floyd:

"I think the important thing is, when I do get the opportunity to play in the field, play well," he said. "Not try to be Superman, because that's going into the danger zone. Plus, we have guys who are Superman. I'm sitting next to one right here."

He was referring to Carl Crawford, whose locker is alongside Floyd's in the Rays' clubhouse.

And this morning we have Jame Shields:

"Aki's got great body control, so he can pretty much play wherever he wants," RHP James Shields said. "That's one of the reasons he's here right now, because he can do anything. He's like Spiderman."

What's left for Cannizaro?

Jackson and Hammel, though, are out of options and likely will make the Opening Day roster in one role or another barring a complete collapse.(This morning's Tribune)

I am not sure why all of the focus goes to these 2 guys.  Sure they are younger and have some projection left but the reason they are out of options is because they have used up their 6 MiLB or 3 MLB seasons which sounds like a lot of exposure already.  And should not the focus be on performance and not projection anyway at the MLB level?

By my count, Balfour, Glover, and Dohmann are all out of options as well (RJ?).  If so, why is this not mentioned in the 25 man calculus?  

From Yesterday's ASK BA:

J.P. Schwartz Springfield, Ill.
You mentioned in the chat that you doubt the Rays will go after Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez with the No. 1 overall pick in the June draft because they already have the game's top third-base prospect in Evan Longoria. However, isn't it the duty of a team to draft the best possible player available and not worry about its needs when it chooses early in the first round?

Jim Callis
A team picking at the draft has to be almost solely concerned with getting the best player it can. But there are two reasons that I think the Rays could pass on Alvarez, the consensus top prospect this year.

First, they spent the No. 3 overall pick two years ago on Longoria. Tampa Bay could move Alvarez to left field or first base, where it has productive players in Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, but it has more pressing needs on the mound. The Rays do have a number of talented arms rising through their farm system, but attrition always strikes pitchers and teams never have enough.

Second, while Alvarez is the No. 1 prospect right now, San Diego lefthander Brian Matusz, Missouri righthander Aaron Crow and Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham are close behind him. If Alvarez has clearly separated himself from the pack in June, Tampa Bay could be tempted to take him. But if he hasn't, taking Matusz, Crow or Beckham would make more sense.

Rays resigned Stephen Andrade and signed Roger Deago from the Padres organization.

No news here.  Move along now people.

Oh and Happy Birthday Bill Evers who is 54 today.

 

The BA Prospect Handbook arrived today.  Been pouring through it.

Here's the Rays top 30:

1. Evan Longoria
   
2. David Price
   
3. Jake McGee
   
4. Wade Davis
   
5. Reid Brignac
   
6. Desmond Jennings
   
7. Jeff Niemann
   
8. Jeremy Hellickson
   
9. Ryan Royster
   
10. Chris Mason
    

(These 10 we knew)

11. Glenn Gibson
    
12. Juan Salas
    
13. John Jaso
    
14. Alex Cobb
    
15. Eduardo Morlan
    
16. Josh Butler
    
17. Nick Barnese
    
18. James Houser
    
19. Heath Rollins
    
20. Matt Walker
    
21. Mitch Talbot
    
22. Mike McCormick
    
23. Will Kline
    
24. Wade Townsend
    
25. Fernando Perez
    

(Jake pops a blood vessel in 3...2...1...)

26. Nevin Ashley
    
27. Justin Ruggiano
    
28. Rhyne Hughes
    
29. Joel Guzman
    
30. D.J. Jones

And from their 31st team list from the BA site

31. David Newmann

I was surprised to see Morlan so high but I know most here are higher on him than I.  

I was also surprised to see Matt Walker had only regressed to #20 from #9 last year.  His season was wasted but apparently he impressed in the Rays instructional league.

I was also surprised to see Will Kline so high (at #23) seeing as several draft observers believed that Kline would have made it to the 4th-5th round if the Rays didn't grab him with the 1st pick in the 2nd round.  His limited exposure in Low A was not all that great either.  Given the strength of the Rays list, I thought he would be off the board in the 30-40 range.

Probably my biggest surprise was seeing Wade Townsend gain 2 spots (from #26 in 2007 to #24 in 2008) after a thoroughly mediocre season (with yet more injury time) in Low A at age 24.  I know, he is coming back from TJ and everything will be better this season, yaddayaddayadda.  

On the low side, I would suggest Jaso, Rollins, Perez, and of course my favorite 'cause célèbre', the omitted Chris Nowak.

Resigned RHP Richard De Los Santos and signed RHP  Scott Munter.

Also this from today's Twins chat with John Manuel.

Ben from Leland Grove asks:Had Morlan not gone to TB, would he have cracked the Top 10? Your thoughts on his mechanics?

A:  Moderator: I didn't have Morlan in my 10. The Twins have to love their deal with the Rays, because they got talent they like and traded players they were not as high on as other organizations. While Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan have big arms, the Twins just weren't that high on them otherwise, on their feel for pitching and getting the most out of their talent. What's more, Morlan's velocity is good, not great; he touches the upper 90s, but doesn't command the fastball when he does that. He's more effective in the low 90s with a good slider, but it's really more of a plus slider, average fastball. It's more of a setup profile than a closer profile, so he wasn't a top 10 guy. His mechanics are inconsistent, he over-throws and over-rotates, which is why his velo varies and why he can be pretty hittable at times.

 

This likely isn't worth its own piece but I saw the following in a piece about Johan Santana and Venezuela.

In addition to Santana, the most notable baseball prospects from Tovar are Oswaldo Sosa, a minor league pitcher in the Twins' organization, and Julio Puente, a pitcher in the Tampa Bay Rays' organization.

I am happy for Puente that he has achieved notable status in Tovar.  Now could someone tell me who he is?

Santana's Hometown Awaits His Next Move