I made this point elsewhere, but just to expand on it.

The current draft value chart that everyone uses was something that was invented years ago, I hear by Jimmy Johnson. It's pretty arbitrary, even though everyone uses it.

Now, I get the point that if everyone uses it, it sets a market, and if you get screwed from the perspective of that chart, then it kinda means that you got screwed, since everyone uses it.

But that's only if you're playing the same game as them. What if you're playing a different game, and one that actually has more to do with what really matters in the NFL?

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What a day it had been. John Fox sat at his desk, considering the turn of events. Less than twenty-four hours ago, Peyton Manning had held his farewell press conference to say goodbye to the Indianapolis Colts. And just a few minutes ago, Fox had heard that Manning had some interest in the Broncos.

Fox hadn't been seriously considering approaching Manning. Denver's offensive staff had been preparing for the offseason under the assumption that Tim Tebow would continue to be the quarterback in 2012. Mike McCoy and his offensive staff were studying up on the finer points of the zone read, the pistol, the spread, and the many other offensive concepts that were a good match for Tebow's skill sets. They knew that they had only scratched the surface of what could be done with that offensive style, and were looking forward to a full off-season.

But Peyton had floated some interest, and it was worth considering.

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Hi, I'm tunesmith. (Hello, tunesmith!)

I'd like to share a set of statements.

1. I'm not a big fan of bringing in Peyton Manning.
2. I am a fan of Tim Tebow.
3. I've been a Broncos fan since 1984.
4. I've never seen a Gators game.
5. I'm not even close to being an evangelical Christian.

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Second in a series... see here for the BAD plays.

As many of you know, I've analyzed every game this season in terms of WPA. WPA stands for "Win Percentage Added", and it's a stat that was derived over at AdvancedNFLStats, by Brian Burke. WPA is the likelihood of winning the game, for any situation that is described by down, distance, score difference, and time remaining. You can calculate a team's WPA before every play, and the play's outcome impacts the team's likelihood of winning.

Using this approach, we can look at the "biggest plays" of each game. In other words, these plays are the plays that most impacted the team's chances of winning or losing.

Well, the season is over now, so now we can look at the team's biggest plays of the year! This is the second part of a two part series, and we're looking at the good, no, GREAT plays. In order of increasing awesomeness, these are the plays that helped our chances of winning the most. And so, the Top Ten Biggest GOOD plays of 2011... can I have a drum roll please!

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As many of you know, I've analyzed every game this season in terms of WPA. WPA stands for "Win Percentage Added", and it's a stat that was derived over at AdvancedNFLStats, by Brian Burke. WPA is the likelihood of winning the game, for any situation that is described by down, distance, score difference, and time remaining. You can calculate a team's WPA before every play, and the play's outcome impacts the team's likelihood of winning.

Using this approach, we can look at the "biggest plays" of each game. In other words, these plays are the plays that most impacted the team's chances of winning or losing.

Well, the season is over now, so now we can look at the team's biggest plays of the year! This will be a two part series. First off, we're going to be looking at the bad plays. In order of increasing awfulness, these are the plays that hurt our chances of winning the most. And so, the Top Ten Biggest BAD plays of 2011... can I have a drum roll please!

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

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I know there's been a lot of verbal slings and arrows flying around about Tebow, inaccuracy, receivers, drops, et cetera. Well, now it's the end of the season and we finally have the ability to take a clear look. Some short and sweet numbers below the jump.

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

There's some great on-the-ground HD footage of Demaryius Thomas' final touchdown catch/run, and this sequence of pics really jumped out at me.

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

I figured I'd use my game rewind subscription before it runs out later this week to look at each of Tebow's pass attempts for the game, including sacks. Here's how I'm scoring. I'm looking at both play calling and execution, and I'm scoring each on a pass/fail/push basis. I give each play a "push" if the playcalling/execution doesn't have much bearing on the outcome of the play, or if it isn't clear to me.

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

Right now, the division standings are:

• DEN 8-6 (@BUF, KC)
• OAK 7-7 (@KC, SD)
• SD 7-7 (@DET, @OAK)
• KC 6-8 (OAK, @DEN)

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game. Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game. We're looking at WPA to judge them. At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning. After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted. The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best. I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays. Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

I was going through this in the comments and thought I'd make a fan post out of it. Are there any cases where Oakland can get the tiebreaker against us? It turns out there are, and it means there is one must-win game for Denver to keep that from happening. Guess who it is!

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A methodical offense that doesn't hurt itself too badly and pulls it out in overtime.  A quarterback that played better when the game wasn't on the line than he did in the clutch moments, but whose defense-reading skills proved to be the difference.  A running back whose unremarkable game came to life in overtime.  And a tired defense whose only bright spots were two pass rushers, bailed out by two missed field goals.  Not quite when I expected to find in the numbers after watching the game with my eyes!

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.  Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

I am seeing some people spread some serious misinformation about the Cutler/Orton trade from a couple of years ago, so here is a very clear rundown of what happened with the trade, and what we got in return.  This is a partial repost from a previous fanpost of mine, with some new details added in.  Follow me after the jump.

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.  Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

A short week and a trip to Hawaii have conspired to make me fall behind a bit on this series, but we should be caught up soon.  First, Kansas City.  We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.

Continue reading this post »

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.  Here we go!

Continue reading this post »

Hello everyone!

I don't know about you, but I have found this week very tiring.  I am seeing a lot of exaggeration.  I'm seeing a lot of old arguments cropping up.  And I'm seeing a fair amount of bad behavior.

But rather than going through a long list of grievances, I'm going to do my best to evolve the discussion a bit, and ask some questions that I think have been under-discussed, along with my own answers.  Join me below the jump!

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I've mentioned this a couple of times in various comment threads and am mostly just getting mocked, so I figured I would put my notes here.

I re-watched the first half of the Detroit game and honestly thought that Tebow showed more good than bad in the first half.

Of course, it's important to note that I am isolating Tebow's play from matters such as - play calling, wide receiver play, special teams play, and defensive play.  

Below the jumps are my raw notes.  There are some implied questions - opinions welcome, particularly on a couple of the plays I wasn't sure how to interpret.

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.  There's not a lot to go into with this game, actually - hardly any of the plays were "big plays".

Continue reading this post »

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  Our definition of a big play is a play that changes the likelihood of the outcome of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we won, we'll start with our worst plays and end with our best.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.  Read on to find some interesting nuggets about the game, including a couple of unsung heroes.

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There's an old joke about a landlubber couple that get on a boat to be ferried to an island, across a dangerous passage.  The husband thinks he's pretty smart - he's checked up on the boat and knows how deep it goes below the surface, and how the water gets unexpectedly shallow in places.  He's checked up on the route - he knows the waters there are dangerous and rocky, and that boats have sunk there in the past.

So while they're on the boat, he's talking to the boat's captain.

"So, Captain.  I read up on this channel.  I read up on this boat.  I can trust you, right?  What I mean to say is, you do know where the rocks are, don't you?"

"Nope."

The husband is alarmed by this and looks at his wife.  He gets flustered and blusters a bit, talking about the dangers of the rocks, the boat, the shallows, as the grizzled captain looks calmly ahead into the waters.  The husband is basically telling the captain how to do his job, and ends with a strained tone in his voice: "How can we trust you if you don't know where the rocks are?"

"I know where they ain't."

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We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst.  I'll also ignore all plays of .06 points or less, since they're not big plays.

Continue reading this post »

We're again referring to AdvancedNFLStats' game log to analyze the game and come up with the biggest plays of the game.  We're looking at WPA to judge them.  At the start of the game, WPA is 0.50, meaning each team has a 50% chance of winning.  After every play, WPA is recalculated compared to every nfl football play that has ever happened, and each team's likelihood of winning is adjusted.  The bigger the play, the bigger the WPA movement.

Since we lost, we'll start with our best plays and end with our worst.  I'll also ignore all plays of 0.06 or less, since they're not big plays.

Continue reading this post »