I was an Adam Dunn fan as soon as it was fashionable (his final minor league year) and a Justin Morneau fan from rookie ball (Twins fan here).  I always believed Morneau was a .300 hitter based on his minor league numbers.  Now, watching him everyday, it's very obvious that he is a .300 hitter.  I can explain why I know he is now, but I choose to not bias my question.

I didn't watch Dunn from rookie ball on, but given John's recent retro, my memory is that Dunn and Morneau were very, very similar.  Assuming for their primes that Morneau is a .300+ hitter and Dunn is a .255 hitter, what foretold the difference?

The money being given to mediocre pitching is overwhelming.  And the good ones, like Zito, could get close to $20 mil/yr for many years.  The Twins have the absolute best starter getting near his prime, and they have arguably the games best closer, and both become free agents after 2008.

In 2007 Santana makes 12 mil and Nathan a little over 5 mil.  I think we should enjoy them while we can because, well, just imagine what they'll be worth in 2009.  Santana could conceivably command $25-$30 million a season by then (just add 7 mil to whatever Zito gets now).  Nathan (see BJ Ryan) could get $12-$15 million.  And then multiply those contracts by six years or so.

If Ryan is smart, he may have to trade Santana and maybe Nathan in or after 2007.  The haul for Nathan may be no more than the Twins could get mid-year 2008, so it might not make sense to deal him after next year.

If Santana is dealt after this year, the Twins will need to make a sure-firing killing...not a cross-your-fingers Nathan/Bonser/Liriano killing.  Not sure how many people know that by winning the Cy Young, Santana has a no-trade clause to really muck things up.

I'll hate to see him go, but I'm just being realistic here.  It will be interesting to see if, after 2007, the Twins approach Santana with an extension in hopes they can lock him up for $20 mil/yr.  What are your realistic thoughts here?