Ahhhhh.... Proooooooceeeeessssssss

What do you think the Bulls were thinking when they drafted Johnson? Maybe this FanPost is superfluous, but I wanted to get a general thought of the Gar Paxdorf thought process. Maybe we can keep the emotion out of this post. Maybe not.

The Bulls don't want to pay Gordon $11 million or even $10 million a year. They probably don't even want to pay him $8 million. I think they believe that, unless they get blown out of the water with a trade offer for Hinrich or no one else is willing to offer Gordon $7 million, they plan on keeping Hinrich and losing Gordon. Regardless of the Gordon-to-Detroit rumor, they have probably been thinking this since last year. Reinsdorf has even said, once Gordon rejected the offer, they realized they don't really need him.

With that in mind, the Bulls need to fill his spot. They'll do that with John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich. However, if they make Salmons the starting SG, they'll need a back-up SF. They also realize that their only back-up PF is Tim Thomas and Luol Deng for a few minutes per game.  They could legitimately go to a 3-guard lineup now (Rose, Hinrich, Salmons, Deng), but they shouldn't plan on that.

So the Bulls needed a back-up SF that could play right away. With that last qualification, exit Austin Daye, enter James Johnson. While I'm convinced this is as much a pick based on need over "best player available" (because I think DeJuan Blair is better and more of a sure thing).

The Bulls decided on this pick well before yesterday as all those rumors about moving up were about getting Johnson. They clearly thought Johnson was better than what most of us did. When the Bulls sat down and decided, "Let's try to take James Johnson." here's how I think they wrote the minutes out:

Rose 35 mpg - Hinrich 13 mpg

Salmons 33 mpg - Hinrich 15 mpg

Deng 33 mpg - Johnson 15 mpg

Thomas 35 mpg - Noah 13 mpg

Noah 22 mpg - Miller 26 mpg

That's a pretty decent 8-man rotation if Johnson is any good. Obviously, this isn't how it's going to play out exactly. They'll have Taj Gibson, DeMarcus Nelson, Tim Thomas and Aaron Gray to fill in for spot minutes and in for injuries. If Thomas and Rose progress well, Deng is healthy and Salmons doesn't go back to pre-2007 production, they should win 45 games. Hopefully, that still gets Vinny Del Negro fired.

When they didn't have to trade up for Johnson, they knew they could take Taj Gibson. I think he sucks, but DraftExpress intimated that they got reliable information from the Bulls yesterday morning that they'd take Gibson if were available.

Here's their live blog:

10:02 Nope, Chicago goes with Taj Gibson, which is what we predicted on our mock draft. Good advance scouting by DraftExpress I guess.

10:08 Some people give you bad information year after year…some people don’t. It’s nice to add a couple more correct picks to the tally here at the end of the first round.

So when they were able to get Johnson w/o trading up, they take Gibson. If he proves good enough to take minutes from Thomas, Noah or Miller, then so be it. If not, they still have Tim Thomas to fill in.

I don't think they have a plan for SG past next season other than to offer Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson in Free Agency w/ Josh Howard and maybe Tracy McGrady (if they're cheap enough, CHEAP!!! god, I hope not) as short-term stop-gaps. If they need to include Hinrich and/or Thomas and/or Deng in a sign-and-trade, they have mediocre back-up plans.

I think they want to give Thomas one more year to "bust out" with the hopes that a trade for Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh presents itself. I really don't think they have much of a long-term plan (I don't think they EVER have), other than creating cap space. Or, in yfBB's words: getting rid of contracts to make money. They'll go into 2010-2011 w/ loads of cap space (at least $15-$17 million) and only nine players under contract (which would include next year's draft pick and Omer Asik). I'm sure their hope is that Thomas busts out, Deng stays healthy, Salmons opts out and Wade or Joe Johnson accept one less guaranteed year to sign outright. They'd be a Top-5 team in all of those actually happened.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. What are yours?

First, there are two obstacles to this trade: 1) if I read correctly, Azubuike has an offer sheet so he'd have to approve any trade and 2) this might have to be an "agreed in principle" trade before the draft, that won't be official until July 1st. I'm not sure about the second point, though.

The trade:

Warriors get:

Kirk Hinrich + 2009 #16 + 2009 #26

Bulls get:

Kelenna Azubuike + Brandan Wright + Marco Belinelli + 2010 2nd-round pick (because, why not?)

Rationale below.

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This has been covered exhaustively on here before, but now that the time is upon us, and discussions are heating up, I re-explored the situation and tried to research it in depth. Unfortunately, I lack the complete know-how (and time, I'm at work) to be 100% accurate. I'm sure there will be mistakes, and I'd like people to point out the corrections. If you want to be really helpful, you could point out my mistake but also try to show how I could get around it. If not, I'll try to reply in the comments and update this post.

My primary sources:

NBA FAQ (best source on the web for these things)

DraftExpress Salary Page and their Contract Calculator

Can the Bulls re-sign Gordon this summer and still have payroll flexibility next year? Specifically, can they outright sign a max free agent--the likes of James, Bosh, Wade, Yao, Joe Johnson, etc.? See my attempt at figuring it out below.

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I wanted to make an unofficial Guess Who Stays Game. Why? Because the draft is over and there is a loooong time until more meaningful begins.

I want us to make predictions about which draft picks and undrafted free agents make 53-man roster, which make the Practice Squad and which get shipped to the garbage pile. Obviously, we, most likely, won't know what the end result is until the end of the Pre-Season. However, we'll have idea along the way. I don't think we need to analyze who these guys will make the team over (i.e. does Knox make it over Davis, do they cut LaRocque or Roach for Freeman, etc.), unless, of course, you want to.

The winner gets a virtual high-five from me. (and a free Jay Cutler jersey from WCG and a choice of ChiFan13's collection of Brad Maynard's used game pants.)

I'll go first:

53-man
Jarron Gilbert
D.J. Moore
Jauquin Iglesias
Marcus Freeman
Will Ta'ufo'ou
Chase Patton
Johnny Knox
Henry Melton
I think Knox and Melton make it for special teams, and because they are too unique in their athletic abilities to last too long on the Practice Squad. I think Patton makes it over Basanez and Ta'ufo'ou over McKie.

Practice Squad
Mike Rivera
Lance Louis
Al Afalava

Agree or disagree? What do you think?

I hate Vinny Del Negro. I think this team had an incredible chance to hire a good coach that could develop the young players and build for the future. I was willing to forgive Del Negro on the X's and O's if he at least did that. While I will give him credit for at least playing the guys a lot of minutes (Thomas and Rose specifically), I really don't feel they've improved that much from the pre-season to now.

Bah, I don't want to continue on an anti-Del Negro rant.

I'd love for the Bulls to get a new coach. While I'd like for the Bulls to go outside the organization for a coach, I don't see it happening this summer. I'd think the most likely scenario is the firing of Del Negro 30 games into the season w/ one of assistants getting the interim tag. Another wasted year. ::sigh::

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