SB Nation User Blog: tyger1147

Guessing the Bulls' Thought Process

tyger1147 — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 18:27:07 -0000

Ahhhhh.... Proooooooceeeeessssssss

What do you think the Bulls were thinking when they drafted Johnson? Maybe this FanPost is superfluous, but I wanted to get a general thought of the Gar Paxdorf thought process. Maybe we can keep the emotion out of this post. Maybe not.

The Bulls don't want to pay Gordon $11 million or even $10 million a year. They probably don't even want to pay him $8 million. I think they believe that, unless they get blown out of the water with a trade offer for Hinrich or no one else is willing to offer Gordon $7 million, they plan on keeping Hinrich and losing Gordon. Regardless of the Gordon-to-Detroit rumor, they have probably been thinking this since last year. Reinsdorf has even said, once Gordon rejected the offer, they realized they don't really need him.

With that in mind, the Bulls need to fill his spot. They'll do that with John Salmons and Kirk Hinrich. However, if they make Salmons the starting SG, they'll need a back-up SF. They also realize that their only back-up PF is Tim Thomas and Luol Deng for a few minutes per game. They could legitimately go to a 3-guard lineup now (Rose, Hinrich, Salmons, Deng), but they shouldn't plan on that.

So the Bulls needed a back-up SF that could play right away. With that last qualification, exit Austin Daye, enter James Johnson. While I'm convinced this is as much a pick based on need over "best player available" (because I think DeJuan Blair is better and more of a sure thing).

The Bulls decided on this pick well before yesterday as all those rumors about moving up were about getting Johnson. They clearly thought Johnson was better than what most of us did. When the Bulls sat down and decided, "Let's try to take James Johnson." here's how I think they wrote the minutes out:

Rose 35 mpg - Hinrich 13 mpg

Salmons 33 mpg - Hinrich 15 mpg

Deng 33 mpg - Johnson 15 mpg

Thomas 35 mpg - Noah 13 mpg

Noah 22 mpg - Miller 26 mpg

That's a pretty decent 8-man rotation if Johnson is any good. Obviously, this isn't how it's going to play out exactly. They'll have Taj Gibson, DeMarcus Nelson, Tim Thomas and Aaron Gray to fill in for spot minutes and in for injuries. If Thomas and Rose progress well, Deng is healthy and Salmons doesn't go back to pre-2007 production, they should win 45 games. Hopefully, that still gets Vinny Del Negro fired.

When they didn't have to trade up for Johnson, they knew they could take Taj Gibson. I think he sucks, but DraftExpress intimated that they got reliable information from the Bulls yesterday morning that they'd take Gibson if were available.

Here's their live blog:

10:02 Nope, Chicago goes with Taj Gibson, which is what we predicted on our mock draft. Good advance scouting by DraftExpress I guess.

10:08 Some people give you bad information year after year…some people don’t. It’s nice to add a couple more correct picks to the tally here at the end of the first round.

So when they were able to get Johnson w/o trading up, they take Gibson. If he proves good enough to take minutes from Thomas, Noah or Miller, then so be it. If not, they still have Tim Thomas to fill in.

I don't think they have a plan for SG past next season other than to offer Dwyane Wade or Joe Johnson in Free Agency w/ Josh Howard and maybe Tracy McGrady (if they're cheap enough, CHEAP!!! god, I hope not) as short-term stop-gaps. If they need to include Hinrich and/or Thomas and/or Deng in a sign-and-trade, they have mediocre back-up plans.

I think they want to give Thomas one more year to "bust out" with the hopes that a trade for Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh presents itself. I really don't think they have much of a long-term plan (I don't think they EVER have), other than creating cap space. Or, in yfBB's words: getting rid of contracts to make money. They'll go into 2010-2011 w/ loads of cap space (at least $15-$17 million) and only nine players under contract (which would include next year's draft pick and Omer Asik). I'm sure their hope is that Thomas busts out, Deng stays healthy, Salmons opts out and Wade or Joe Johnson accept one less guaranteed year to sign outright. They'd be a Top-5 team in all of those actually happened.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. What are yours?

I Love Terrence Williams (and no, there's no "as a basketball player" qualifier)

tyger1147 — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:02:06 -0000

I Love Terrence Williams (and no, there's no "as a basketball player" qualifier)

This doesn't change my opinion of him as a player--that if the Bulls do nothing and Henderson, Blair and Hansbrough are off the board, I wouldn't be upset about taking Williams--but I love the personality, honesty, insight... I hope he ends up being really, really good.

Givony: Terrence Williams to Bobcats, "Done Deal"

tyger1147 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:53:14 -0000

Givony: Terrence Williams to Bobcats, "Done Deal"

Givony won't reveal his source, but he said more than once that it is an absolute that he got a promise from the Bobcats. He was definitely certain about it.

Trade Idea From a Bulls Fan (Hinrich/Picks for Azubuike/Wright)

tyger1147 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:25:16 -0000

First, there are two obstacles to this trade: 1) if I read correctly, Azubuike has an offer sheet so he'd have to approve any trade and 2) this might have to be an "agreed in principle" trade before the draft, that won't be official until July 1st. I'm not sure about the second point, though.

The trade:

Warriors get:

Kirk Hinrich + 2009 #16 + 2009 #26

Bulls get:

Kelenna Azubuike + Brandan Wright + Marco Belinelli + 2010 2nd-round pick (because, why not?)

Rationale below.

Salaries barely work, but they do.

The Warriors would be replacing Azubuike w/ Hinrich which as an obvious upgrade considering their needs, and they don't play Wright or Belinelli anyway. They get two draft picks as well to try to move up and ensure they get Jordan Hill or to take guys like Earl Clark, Terrance Williams, BJ Mullens, etc. They could start Hinrich and Monta Ellis (at whichever positions they want) w/ Stephen Jackson or Corey Maggette at SF, and they'd be backed up by Jamal Crawford and the other of Jackson or Maggette. They'd have Ronnie Turiaf, Andres Biedrins, Anthony Randolph and ... Jordan Hill? to man the Big spots.

The Bulls get a backup PG they'd need if they traded away Hinrich, their M2GwcSaD that they've been in search for four years now and an offensive-minded PF. The latter two are positions they'd be trying to fill in with this draft anyway, and this way they can get somewhat more proven commodities.

If the Warriors could give up #7 and #16 to Washington to move up and grab Hill, I think this is an outstanding trade for them. Still pretty damn good if they don't move up, too.

(update: revealing I didn't look close enough. Why did I think Belinelli could play PG? Could he do it for 10 mpg (because Derrick Rose will be playing the other 38)?)

Poll

Yes or No?

2009 NBA Draft "Green Room" Invites

tyger1147 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 13:38:56 -0000

2009 NBA Draft "Green Room" Invites

The NBA doesn't want to embarrass anyone, so they do their own research among GM's to try to invite only those likely to go in the lottery or shortly thereafter. That's certainly no guarantee, though. Remember Darrell Arthur and the sudden "oh-my-god-he-has-a-kidney-or-something" issue last year?

Hansbrough? No Blair?

What Could the 2010 Summer Look Like If the Bulls Re-sign Gordon?

tyger1147 — Thu, 28 May 2009 17:10:54 -0000

This has been covered exhaustively on here before, but now that the time is upon us, and discussions are heating up, I re-explored the situation and tried to research it in depth. Unfortunately, I lack the complete know-how (and time, I'm at work) to be 100% accurate. I'm sure there will be mistakes, and I'd like people to point out the corrections. If you want to be really helpful, you could point out my mistake but also try to show how I could get around it. If not, I'll try to reply in the comments and update this post.

My primary sources:

NBA FAQ (best source on the web for these things)

DraftExpress Salary Page and their Contract Calculator

Can the Bulls re-sign Gordon this summer and still have payroll flexibility next year? Specifically, can they outright sign a max free agent--the likes of James, Bosh, Wade, Yao, Joe Johnson, etc.? See my attempt at figuring it out below.

Well, what do you think gives us the better chance of gettin Wade/Bosh/Johnson: Signing Ben, or having $15+ million of cap space? --YaoPau

I'd say it's best to have both.

For the sake of argument, I'm going to make some assumptions:

The Bulls sign Gordon for $9 million for five years (I think that's the upper limits of what he'll get).
Salmons opts out, or (in my preferred scenario), he's traded for assured cap relief next year (there are multiple ways that could happen, one being: trading him "in principle" to Toronto w/ the #16 pick for the #9 pick and nabbing Blair, this assuming Toronton isn't trading Bosh this summer, which is what this whole thing assumes anyway, right?).
Bulls renounce Tyrus Thomas's rights.
Bulls give their draft pick away from this year to a team w/ cap space for a 2nd round pick.
Renounce Tim Thomas, James, Miller...

Committed 2010-2011 salary (numbers are approximate):

Deng - $11.3
Hinrich - $9
Gordon - $8.2 ($7.7 if he signs for $8.5/yr, etc.)
Rose - $5.5
Noah - $3.1
2009Rookie26 - < $1 (here)
2010Rookie20 - < $1
RosterCharge8 - $0.5 (see point 10 here, then here)
RosterCharge9 - $0.5 (ibid)
RosterCharge10 - $ 0.5 (etc.)
RosterCharge11 - $ 0.5 (blah, blah, blah)
RosterCharge12 - $ 0.5 (and again)

Total: $41.6

Expected cap: $56 - $58 million

This would be close to having enough space. If things were continuing as normal, the first year maximum salary for a player in the league for 7 years, would be ~17 million. But we already know that the cap is likely going to be down, and since the max salary is based off of the cap, the max salary would go down, too. At where the Bulls would be above, it's really close. Getting Gordon for less than $9 million would be a big deal. More than $9 million makes it really tough.

Worst-case scenario where they strike out on ALL free agents: they have the same team going forward like they would if they let Gordon go, except now they'd have Gordon instead of Tyrus Thomas (since they renounced him), but they'd also have plenty of cap space to re-sign Thomas and give him enough money to bring him back. They could also sign other players, re-sign Miller on the MLE if he wants to stay, etc. It's not a great team, but it's good. And I think it's better than not having Gordon.

Worst-case scenario where they bring in a Max player: The other teams don't want to do a sign-and-trade and they must renounce Thomas. They sign Wade outright, then have to get something for Hinrich or Gordon (probably not great, but I'd doubt it'd be horrible either), and they would keep the other one. Re-sign Brad Miller under the MLE (Bird rights no longer apply since they re-nounced him) . Bring in Asik. They have Rose, Wade, Deng and Noah starting for sure w/ Gordon/Hinrich, Miller, Asik and the two draft picks figuring out the fifth starter and the bench. I don't know how good that team can be. If Deng is healthy and returns to form and Rose becomes a superstar and Noah becomes Nene2.0 but skinnier but with more "perimeter" skills, it's pretty damned good. And that's my worst-case scenario. (Correction: Giving Joe Johnson a max contract in this scenario would be even worse since he's not as good as Wade) "Middle-ground" scenario: Bulls sign Bosh outright, re-sign Miller, bring in Asik. Rose, Gordon, Deng, Bosh, Noah start w/ Hinrich, Miller, Asik and two draft picks off the bench. Again, a lot still depends on Rose, Deng's health and Noah, but that's a very good and deep team. (I think this might be better than getting Wade outright and not getting good frontcourt value in return for one of the departed of Gordon or Hinrich, but honestly, I don't know.) If the mere ability to sign Wade or Bosh outright convinces the Raptors or Heat to do a sign and trade, then something that involves Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas and picks and filler would be exceptional because the Bulls would still be $10 million under the cap. (I'm not sure exactly how sign-and-trades involving UFA's, RFA's and "established" players would work. I do know the BYC for Thomas wouldn't apply to the Bulls and Wade, Bosh, etc. wouldn't have a BYC because their pay raise wouldn't be enough to start it. I'm pretty sure this is technically possible but practically very difficult. But possible.)

So, I know there are some things I'm leaving out. (I really don't want to work anymore on this.) I know I didn't come to a conclusion on exactly what I'd do. (Ideally, the Bulls re-sign Gordon for $2.50 and sign Thomas to a $1-a-year extension). I know I got some things around. I know it's not a sure-fire strategy but neither is gutting the roster and hoping everyone wants to come to Chicago. If the Bulls can sign Gordon for $7.5 mil/yr, they'd be foolish not to. If it's for $7.5-9 mil/yr, it's close, but I still think they should. If it's for more than $9 mil, I wouldn't argue against letting him walk... but I'd still hesitate.

What say you, oh fellow mouth-breathers?

Unofficial "Guess Which Rookies Stay" Game

tyger1147 — Sat, 02 May 2009 15:28:39 -0000

I wanted to make an unofficial Guess Who Stays Game. Why? Because the draft is over and there is a loooong time until more meaningful begins.

I want us to make predictions about which draft picks and undrafted free agents make 53-man roster, which make the Practice Squad and which get shipped to the garbage pile. Obviously, we, most likely, won't know what the end result is until the end of the Pre-Season. However, we'll have idea along the way. I don't think we need to analyze who these guys will make the team over (i.e. does Knox make it over Davis, do they cut LaRocque or Roach for Freeman, etc.), unless, of course, you want to.

The winner gets a virtual high-five from me. (and a free Jay Cutler jersey from WCG and a choice of ChiFan13's collection of Brad Maynard's used game pants.)

I'll go first:

53-man
Jarron Gilbert
D.J. Moore
Jauquin Iglesias
Marcus Freeman
Will Ta'ufo'ou
Chase Patton
Johnny Knox
Henry Melton
I think Knox and Melton make it for special teams, and because they are too unique in their athletic abilities to last too long on the Practice Squad. I think Patton makes it over Basanez and Ta'ufo'ou over McKie.

Practice Squad
Mike Rivera
Lance Louis
Al Afalava

Agree or disagree? What do you think?

BaB Fave DeJuan Blair Q & A'd by DraftExpress.com

tyger1147 — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 17:17:27 -0000

BaB Fave DeJuan Blair Q & A'd by DraftExpress.com

I think he'll be a good player and would provide things the Bulls need and would be great as a 20-25 mpg guy. However, due to his lack of quickness and height, he can really only play one position, PF. I don't know if the lack of versatility is what you want out of a bench player, especially one you're drafting at 16th overall, and I'd be hesitant to draft him as a future starter. Which is interesting because they talk about the Nets possibly drafting him at 11th, and I could definitely see that considering the make-up of their team their dream of getting LeBron James.

Tell Me About Del Harris, Bernie Bickerstaff and Bob Ociepka

tyger1147 — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:00:54 -0000

I hate Vinny Del Negro. I think this team had an incredible chance to hire a good coach that could develop the young players and build for the future. I was willing to forgive Del Negro on the X's and O's if he at least did that. While I will give him credit for at least playing the guys a lot of minutes (Thomas and Rose specifically), I really don't feel they've improved that much from the pre-season to now.

Bah, I don't want to continue on an anti-Del Negro rant.

I'd love for the Bulls to get a new coach. While I'd like for the Bulls to go outside the organization for a coach, I don't see it happening this summer. I'd think the most likely scenario is the firing of Del Negro 30 games into the season w/ one of assistants getting the interim tag. Another wasted year. ::sigh::

Or will it be? I'd like to read opinions, if anyone has any, on the different coaches that are assistants now that might be promoted to Head Coach once Del Negro is mercifully (for me) cut loose.* Here are their biographies:

Del Harris

Bernie Bickerstaff

Bob Ociepka

What say you?

*I think I read somewhere that most assistants in the NBA are on one-year deals, but that may have been MLB or the NFL. Are these guys signed through next year? Will any of them be back? All of them? I guess that's another question.

DraftWatch 2009 - Take 3

tyger1147 — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 16:13:39 -0000

College basketball has finished another season w/ the pre-season's favorite to win it running away w/ the title, so here's another draft diary.

Jamaicanpi has already gathered links to mock drafts, scouting reports, statistical analysis of pasts draft and lessons learned and other misc. stuff. If you're interested, I suggest you go there for some fun links.

The Bulls pick will likely be 15th/16th and 26th (the worse of Denver and SA (thanks Jaina) and Denver has a nice pad on both sides especially w/ this news. - YIKES!). So, with Paxson's scouting done for the year (the Final Four being over now), how about we make some predictions? I still can't see a player from any of the four teams other than Hasheem Thabeet (who will go Top-10 at the least) and Ty Lawson (who, um, plays a position the Bulls have filled) that will be around the 15th pick.

I think (and have thought for quite some time) what most of think in that Gordon will be gone. I think the Bulls need to draft either a wing or a good-shooting SG and a PF/C that is either a definite scoring machine or is good at defending & rebounding.

So, as always, what do you think they need and who do you think they'll take?

(oh, and make sure you recommend this so we have it up there)