I just had this thought and I was curious what people thought about it.  As we all know, Sebastien Le Toux has been extremely important for the Phildelphia Union, with 11 goals and 10 assists.  Le Toux was also something of a fan favorite here in Seattle and many were sad to see him go.

Ianni, on the other hand, has no eye-popping statistics.  He did, however, fill a hole at defensive midfielder for a while and when he wasn't filling in there, he has been a key centerback for the Sounders, especially with Hurtado out for most of the season with his knee injury.

Meanwhile, in Seba's absence, the Sounders have added Blaise Nkufo up top and seem to have plenty of options for wingers (where it must be said that Le Toux didn't seem as effective as he has been in a more forward role for Philadelphia.)

I know some people like Taylor Graham, so maybe they feel like Ianni has been something of a luxury, and that Le Toux would have gotten a chance up top when Jaqua was hurt earlier this season.  On the other hand, maybe Sigi never would have given much of a chance to play up top even with Jaqua out.

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I'm originally a baseball guy. Home field advantage isn't really a big deal in baseball. Being charitable to the home team, in MLB history, the home team wins about 55% of the time. It's an edge, but it's pretty small.

So last year while World Cup qualifying was going on, I looked at some of the home/away stats and it was astonishing. Considering that everyone plays on a rectangular field with the same-sized rectangular goals, it's pretty crazy the kind of home field advantage that you see. What I had found at that time (these are now out of date) was:

CONCACAF goals scored per game home/away:
rd1: 1.82/1.12
rd2: 2.42/1.33
rd3: 1.94/0.92
rd4: 2.00/0.86 (in progress)

Asia:
rd1: 2.77/1.37
rd2: 2.00/0.75
rd3: 1.26/1.00
rd4: 1.25/0.70

South America (all on one big table)
1.69/0.86

Europe (first round with 9 groups)
1.53/1.23

Now, there are all sorts of ways to overreach from that data and try to draw too many conclusions, but it does make it seem as though length of travel (and ease of travel) could be one of the biggest things that drives HFA in soccer.

Anyway, knowing that this is a rather huge issue in international soccer, I figured I would look at some CONCACAF Champions League/Cup data to see what it's been like for club play in the region. To quantify home-field advantage (HFA) in CONCACAF play, I decided to look at all games involving MLS teams over the last 9 incarnations of the tournament. This goes back 10 years, but there was no 2001 Cup, and I'm not including this year's results because teams aren't even on home/away games.

First, I'll break it down in terms of MLS teams vs. Mexican or non-Mexican sides.

So, basically, MLS teams do extremely well at home against anyone that's not from Mexico, though they don't score a whole lot considering how often they win and how rarely they lose. On the flip side of the coin, MLS teams haven't won in Mexico and with 3.24 goals against per game, they've been absolutely dominated.

What does it look like if we break each country out separately?

One row that really stands out to me is the 1-8-1 vs. Costa Rica in Costa Rica.  0.40 PPM is nearly as bad as the 0.12 PPM that MLS teams have in Mexico.

The other thing that sticks out to me is that teams from every single country--even some countries which have a pretty small sample--have better results, mostly by a wide margin, at home than on the road.

From a Sounders point of view, I think it's interesting to look at the Sounders' results in light of these typical MLS results.

at Honduras -- 1.4 PPM, most common result: (toss up between win and loss, let's call it a Draw)
vs. Mexico -- 1.35 PPM, most common result: (toss up between win and loss, call it a Draw again)
at Costa Rica -- 0.40 PPM, most common result: Loss
at Mexico -- 0.12 PPM, most common result: Loss
vs. Honduras -- 2.40 PPM, most common result: Win
vs. Costa Rica -- 1.70 PPM, most common result: Draw

Considering that the first two scheduled matches have historically been a fairly even split between win and loss, say you would generally expect the Sounders to get 3 points there, no points in their next two matches, and 4 points in their last two matches.  That would give them 7 points, which generally isn't enough advance from the group stage.  (The sum of the expected points is 7.37 points.)

The most likely road to 10 points for the Sounders would probably have been a win at Honduras, a draw at home with Monterrey, and then wins in the last two games.

All of this makes me wonder a bit if the order of the group stage games makes much of a difference in these things.  If the schedule went in reverse, it's not that hard to imagine the Sounders starting strong out of the gates with two wins.  Then maybe by the time they got to the home game vs. Monterrey, Monterrey would have had essentially secured a spot in the next round and not really brought their A team to Seattle for the 5th game.  And even if it was close going into that last game, they'd likely only need to keep the game close and hope to do well on goal differential, rather than hoping to pull themselves out of a goal differential hole.

Looking back at this, I think I probably had rather naive expectations for the CCL.  I figured that the Sounders could do better than MLS teams had in the past just by taking the tournament "more seriously," but on the whole over the last 1.5+ seasons, the Sounders have only been upper mid-table and not really the class of MLS in performance.  Then they got drawn into a rather difficult group and it looks like they needed at least a point out of Honduras pretty badly, and they weren't able to get it.

I sure hope we get another crack at this next year.

Here's a different look at #TrophiesNotFriendlies. It takes a different look at things than I do, but agreeing with me has never been what determines if we promote to the frontpage.

There has been a lot of talk about whether the Sounders are placing enough value on competitive games as compared to friendlies, especially when it comes to which games are included with season ticket packages.  I have my own opinion about how things should be done, but I have to say that I understand where the Sounders are coming from on this issue.

Champion's League

Let's take a look at, for instance, the demand for CONCACAF Champion's League soccer in Mexico. Mexico's Primera Division has something like roughly the 4th-best average attendance of any soccer league in the world.  Every year, lots of Mexicans come out to support their local team in league play.  Surely they come out in droves for Champion's League, too, right?  Last year, here are their home attendance figures for CCL group play:

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Lots of scoring so far in this one.

Francisco Liriano VS Brian Bannister

GO TWINS!!

Boof Bonser VS Brett Tomko

GO TWINS!!

Livan Hernandez vs. Gilgameche

Better late than never, right?  Livan just wriggled out of a bases loaded one-out jam by striking out Jose Guillen and getting Billy Butler to ground out.  Livan's really been getting a lot of ground balls these days, and I hope that has more to do with him than it does the Angels and Royals.  Time will tell.

In order for the Twins to come back and go ahead in the 9th inning last night, they would have needed at least 16 baserunners.  In order to come up with 16 runs on 16 baserunners, the last baserunner would need to reach on a home run.  That seems the most likely way for the Twins to make it happen, just because it would require the fewest things to go right for them.  To finish out the inning, since they were the visiting team, they would've needed Cuddyer to hit 3 times each, which is as many times as he hit in innings 1-8 combined.  And eventually, the Twins would've had to go through Scott Shields and Francisco Rodriguez.

As far as I can tell, the most runs ever scored in one inning was 17 by the Red Sox back on June 18, 1953.  So they didn't need to set a record, but they would've needed to come pretty darned close.

I really have no point here other than that the Twins got pwned last night.

Today's the day that Kevin Slowey gets his first start in a major league ballgame.  What do the numbers suggest Slowey might do?  Three projection systems (that I know of) have projections for Slowey: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA.

6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.02 ERA -- CHONE
6.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.31 ERA -- ZiPS
5.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.16 ERA -- PECOTA

PECOTA also has comparable pitchers for Slowey, and it does its player comparisons by player seasons, rather than by player careers.  Recognizable names show up on Slowey's comparisons, which tends to be a good sign: John Maine '04, Verlander '06, Milton '98, Blanton '04, and Mussina '92, amongst others.

It's interesting to me that the three systems, with different methodologies, basically come to the same conclusion w/r/t Slowey.  Solid, if unspectacular strikeout rate, with low walk rate, and an unattractive propensity for the long ball.

That's the sort of profile that has illicited a lot of Brad Radke comparisons.  How justified are these comparisons?

3.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.32 ERA -- Radke 1995 (age 22)
5.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.46 ERA -- Radke 1996 (age 23)
5.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.22 ERA -- Radke, career

[Note: in 1996, the league average ERA was 5.15, so a 4.46 ERA was really pretty good.]

I'm amazed that Radke was able to have an ERA of 5.32 in '96, given that abysmal strikeout rate combined with a pretty horrific HR rate.  By his next season (181 innings and 28 starts later, I might add), he started to put things together.

Later in his career, Radke improved his already good control to a level that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball at preventing walks.  It's much too early to tell whether or not Slowey can pitch like late career Brad Radke, but I'd say that early career Brad Radke really isn't a crazy comparison, at least if you're trying to describe Slowey's style and not how his entire career will turn out.

[What is this?]

Reyes was money last year.  Lots of strikeouts, lots of ground balls, not many walks.  His track record?  Not that strong.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

After a weird trip through the land of not many strikeouts and lots of infield pop-ups, Jesse Crain resumed life in the land of fastballs, sliders, and ground balls last year.  He had a 5+ ERA before the All-Star break and a sub-2 ERA after the All-Star break, though the former seemed to inform fan trust in Crain more than the latter.  What's in store for this year?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

ROOGY.  You don't see that term thrown around a whole lot, but that's very well what we're looking at here.  It almost seems like we should have separate projections for Neshek against lefties and righties, but that's probably more detail than we want to get into.  Last year Joe Nathan had 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings.  Pat Neshek had 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings.  Sounds like the local boy made good.  But can he keep it up?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

Continue reading this post »

[What is this?]

Sorry, I don't have time for an intro here.  What do you think Rincon will do this year?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

There's been a lot of talk this offseason in various corners that Joe Nathan is perhaps the most underrated closer in baseball.  This is your chance to let everyone know how he ought to be rated.  Can he possibly get any better?  Is it finally time for a decline?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

I know many of us here would rather not see Sir Sid in the rotation.  What I want to know is how you think Ponson will pitch regardless of whether or not he should be in the rotation.  All too often in life what we get and what we want are two different things.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

Boof went from bouncing back and forth between Minnesota and Rochester last year to being the Game 2 starter in the playoffs.  Needless to say, it was a pretty big year for Boof.

He was far from the most talked about farmhand going into the year, but snuck onto the scene and seems to be sticking around.  How long will he stick around for and how good will he be if he sticks around?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

Like Cirillo, we haven't seen too much of Ramon Ortiz around these parts.  His 12 spring training innings have some people excited, but I would note that of the starters, Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva had the two best ERA's in spring training last year.

Still, it's possible that Ortiz could show some improvement under Rick Anderson.  Will Ortiz reach new heights at age 34?  Or will old dogs forever be stuck with old tricks?  How much will Ortiz enjoy pitching to the DH this year?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

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[What is this?]

Will the sinker sink?  It sure didn't last year.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

Continue reading this post »

[What is this?]

I can't say anything about Santana that hasn't already been said multiple times, so I won't try.  What's he going to do this year, win two Cy Youngs?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel]

[What is this?]

I think this will surprise no one who watched Kubel closely last year:

Pre-ASB   .291/.324/.485
Post-ASB  .163/.209/.233

There's nothing at all to like about his post-All-Star Break performance.  He was slow, grounded into a bunch of DPs, didn't hit for average, didn't hit for power, and didn't walk very much.  I'm sure he'd like to just forget the whole ordeal.

Of course, Kubel's knee clearly plays a role here.  He didn't lose all of his speed for no reason--his knee problems were sapping him of his speed, and likely hampering his abilities at the plate.

So, is the turf going to get to Kubel again eventually?  Will he be able to make adjustments when he's pitched in different ways?  Was he just an over-hyped prospect who won't turn out?  Or is he a stud hitter who just needs his body to remain healthy for two seconds?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer]

[What is this?]

2006 was quite a year for Mr. Cuddyer.  What's in store for '07?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter]

[What is this?]

I don't think that Torii Hunter causes much controversy amongst Twins fans.  Some controversy, but not much.  I think that Torii Hunter's contract causes a lot of controversy amongst fans.  A guy who is a league average hitter and can play plus defense in center field is a valuable commodity.  Just how valuable and how he fits into a $70M has been the subject of many debates, though.

Hunter's had injury troubles three years in a row now, with one DL stint each year.  He probably should have missed more games last year, but he cares about winning and he thought that being out on the field, even at less than 100%, would help the team out.

So what does Torii have in store for us this year?  A spectacular contract year?  A so-so injury-riddled year?  Something else?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo]

[What is this?]

I was looking at Jeff Cirillo's '06 numbers, and I couldn't help but be reminded of Mike Redmond:

Cirillo '06 - .319/.369/.414
Redmond '06 - .339/.363/.411

Now, there are certainly differences between the two.  Redmond had just as many HBP as BB last season, so he walked at a lower rate than Cirillo, but Cirillo's walk rate wasn't anything special.  But mainly, I see two role players who got pretty good OBP's by hitting a lot of singles and not doing a whole lot else.  Cirillo figures to be the primary backup at both corner infield positions and would potentially see increased playing time if a middle infield injury forces Punto to shift positions.

Anyway, this one should be interesting.  Most of us haven't seen Cirillo play nearly as much as the other guys on the team, so I'm curious if that will produce more of a consensus or less of a consensus.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White]

[What is this?]

Like clockwork, White landed on the DL again last year.  When healthy, he hit to the tune of .321/.354/.538.  When bothered by shoulder troubles, his .182/.209/.215 tune didn't sound too pretty.  He's a .286/.339/.465 career hitter, going into his age 35 season.  Your guess is as good as mine.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett]

[What is this?]

Perhaps there was no more divisive issue last year than Castro vs. Bartlett.  Regardless of which way you leaned, you probably felt strongly about this issue.  Sometime last June, Castro was sent out of town, and by playing well "at the major league level," Bartlett made sure that there's no SS controversy going into this season.

Bartlett hit pretty well in the minors.  Will he continue that success (and his success last season) in the majors?  Will he improve above and beyond what he did last year?  Or will he turn out to be a replacement level SS?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto]

[What is this?]

Lil' Nicky Punto had the pleasure of replacing Tony Batista last year.  It's certainly easier to look good when you're being compared to a guy who shouldn't be in the league.

At any rate, thanks apparently to some suggestions by Rod Carew last spring, Punto took a big step forward with his batting average, but still didn't show any power and had only a slightly above average OBP.  The most encouraging sign was probably his reduced strikeout rate, but his September (.252/.266/.294) was pretty disappointing and cast some doubt about his improvements.

So what's going to happen with Punto this year?  More improvement in another year of his prime?  A return to futility infielder Punto?  Someone steps on his hand as he slides headfirst into first base?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo]

[What is this?]

Last year, Luis Castillo's hitting was nearly the same as it was in '05 Florida:

       AVG/ SLG
'05   .301/.374
'06   .296/.370

Unfortunately, his offense took a pretty big dip thanks to a sharp decrease in walk rate, as his OBP dropped from .391 to .358.  That still made him a pretty decent 2B, but I don't think it's unfair to characterize him as a mild disappointment.

What lies ahead for 2007?  Injury?  An return to high OBP?  Something else?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau]

[What is this?]

So the Twins have this guy at first base now who doesn't flash quite as much leather as his predecessor, but I hear he has some value with his bat.  What will it be this year--more power?  A better average?  Both?  Neither?  Maybe '06 was a fluke?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection, just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion/suggestions encouraged.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.  Your voice will be heard.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond]

[What is this?]

Sticking with the catcher position, let's take a look at Mike Redmond.  As Mauer's backup, Redmond has proved to be valuable over the last two years.  Driven largely by a high singles rate last year, Redmond was valuable at the plate and behind the plate.  How will he fare this year?

As usual, if you're submitting a projection, just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion is encouraged.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer]

[What is this?]

So how 'bout that Joe Mauer?  It turns out that he had a pretty decent season last year.  What will happen this year?  Will his knee doom his season?  Will he slump badly trying to defend his batting title?  Will he add more power to his game?  I'd like to know what you think.

If you're submitting a projection, just make a comment including your projected plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging average, home runs, stolen bases, and caught stealing.  Discussion is encouraged.