SB Nation User Blog: ubelmann

Game 39: Blue Jays at Twins

ubelmann — Thu, 15 May 2008 00:43:50 -0000

Lots of scoring so far in this one.

Game 12: Twins @ Royals

ubelmann — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 08:23:43 -0000

Francisco Liriano VS Brian Bannister

GO TWINS!!

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Brian Bannister	2-0	2	2	0	0	0	0	12.0	7	2	2	0	4	10	1.50	.92

Game 11: Twins @ Royals

ubelmann — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 08:19:38 -0000

Boof Bonser VS Brett Tomko

GO TWINS!!

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Boof Bonser	0-2	2	2	0	0	0	0	13.0	16	7	6	1	0	8	4.15	1.23

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2008 - Brett Tomko	1-0	2	1	0	0	0	1	7.0	7	1	1	1	2	5	1.29	1.29

Not in Chicago

ubelmann — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 01:54:22 -0000

Livan Hernandez vs. Gilgameche

Better late than never, right? Livan just wriggled out of a bases loaded one-out jam by striking out Jose Guillen and getting Billy Butler to ground out. Livan's really been getting a lot of ground balls these days, and I hope that has more to do with him than it does the Angels and Royals. Time will tell.

A Tall Order

ubelmann — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 07:25:45 -0000

In order for the Twins to come back and go ahead in the 9th inning last night, they would have needed at least 16 baserunners. In order to come up with 16 runs on 16 baserunners, the last baserunner would need to reach on a home run. That seems the most likely way for the Twins to make it happen, just because it would require the fewest things to go right for them. To finish out the inning, since they were the visiting team, they would've needed Cuddyer to hit 3 times each, which is as many times as he hit in innings 1-8 combined. And eventually, the Twins would've had to go through Scott Shields and Francisco Rodriguez.

As far as I can tell, the most runs ever scored in one inning was 17 by the Red Sox back on June 18, 1953. So they didn't need to set a record, but they would've needed to come pretty darned close.

I really have no point here other than that the Twins got pwned last night.

Kevin Slowey Projections

ubelmann — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 02:59:42 -0000

Today's the day that Kevin Slowey gets his first start in a major league ballgame. What do the numbers suggest Slowey might do? Three projection systems (that I know of) have projections for Slowey: CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA.

6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.02 ERA -- CHONE
6.1 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.31 ERA -- ZiPS
5.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.16 ERA -- PECOTA

PECOTA also has comparable pitchers for Slowey, and it does its player comparisons by player seasons, rather than by player careers. Recognizable names show up on Slowey's comparisons, which tends to be a good sign: John Maine '04, Verlander '06, Milton '98, Blanton '04, and Mussina '92, amongst others.

It's interesting to me that the three systems, with different methodologies, basically come to the same conclusion w/r/t Slowey. Solid, if unspectacular strikeout rate, with low walk rate, and an unattractive propensity for the long ball.

That's the sort of profile that has illicited a lot of Brad Radke comparisons. How justified are these comparisons?

3.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.32 ERA -- Radke 1995 (age 22)
5.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.46 ERA -- Radke 1996 (age 23)
5.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.22 ERA -- Radke, career

[Note: in 1996, the league average ERA was 5.15, so a 4.46 ERA was really pretty good.]

I'm amazed that Radke was able to have an ERA of 5.32 in '96, given that abysmal strikeout rate combined with a pretty horrific HR rate. By his next season (181 innings and 28 starts later, I might add), he started to put things together.

Later in his career, Radke improved his already good control to a level that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball at preventing walks. It's much too early to tell whether or not Slowey can pitch like late career Brad Radke, but I'd say that early career Brad Radke really isn't a crazy comparison, at least if you're trying to describe Slowey's style and not how his entire career will turn out.

Community Projection - Dennys Reyes

ubelmann — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 05:41:11 -0000

[What is this?]

Reyes was money last year. Lots of strikeouts, lots of ground balls, not many walks. His track record? Not that strong.

As usual, if you're submitting a projection (and please do so), just make a comment including your projected innings pitched, ERA, strikeouts/9, walks/9, home runs/9. Discussion/suggestions encouraged, and thanks to those who have been letting their opinions be known.

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Previous projections:
Joe Mauer
Mike Redmond
Justin Morneau
Luis Castillo
Nick Punto
Jason Bartlett
Rondell White
Jeff Cirillo
Torii Hunter
Michael Cuddyer
Jason Kubel
Johan Santana
Carlos Silva
Ramon Ortiz
Boof Bonser
Sidney Ponson
Joe Nathan
Juan Rincon
Pat Neshek
Jesse Crain]

Community Projection - Jesse Crain

ubelmann — Thu, 29 Mar 2007 06:06:37 -0000

[What is this?]

After a weird trip through the land of not many strikeouts and lots of infield pop-ups, Jesse Crain resumed life in the land of fastballs, sliders, and ground balls last year. He had a 5+ ERA before the All-Star break and a sub-2 ERA after the All-Star break, though the former seemed to inform fan trust in Crain more than the latter. What's in store for this year?

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Community Projection - Pat Neshek

ubelmann — Wed, 28 Mar 2007 05:41:19 -0000

[What is this?]

ROOGY. You don't see that term thrown around a whole lot, but that's very well what we're looking at here. It almost seems like we should have separate projections for Neshek against lefties and righties, but that's probably more detail than we want to get into. Last year Joe Nathan had 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Pat Neshek had 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Sounds like the local boy made good. But can he keep it up?

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.

Community Projection - Juan Rincon

ubelmann — Tue, 27 Mar 2007 07:59:32 -0000

[What is this?]

Sorry, I don't have time for an intro here. What do you think Rincon will do this year?

[If you still have something to say about someone whose turn has already come up, go ahead and speak up at the appropriate page.