Last night was pretty special for me.  I was sitting on my couch with my wife, so sick from a cold that I forgot to change from the Newshour to the game.  I came to my senses at the start of the second quarter.  

You ask, what made the night so special?  It wasn't the great victory over the mighty Kings.  This was an overly close game against a lesser opponent.  It wasn't even the fact that Nate came to his senses and started Miller and gave Bayless some run.  Bayless has gotten minutes before.  Bayless has scored before, in fact this was his third game with 14 points, so far this season.  Bayless didn't really do anything he hasn't done all season.  

What changed is that he got to do it with the game on the line.  He was put in a pressure situation, and he responded with the same kind of performance we have seen all season:  efficient scoring, 50% + shooting, an outstanding ability to get to the line and decent ball security. What made the night special for me was less what Bayless did on the floor and more the broad acceptance he received from fans, broadcasters, coaches and teammates.

Bayless is going to make a ton of mistakes, but I think it is pretty clear to the majority of folks that he is going to be a good player and potentially an outstanding player.  There are of coarse, a few holdouts out there (AK are you listening?), but most are starting to catch on to what some of us have been saying ad naseum for over a year.

After the game, as I stared sniffling and sleepless at my ceiling, I got to thinking about my experience as a Blazer fan, in general, and as a Bayless Believer, in particular.  Why do I care?  Is it simply the narcissistic arrogance of wanting to be right?  There is no doubt there is an element of that.  We all like to win arguments; we all like to feel vindicated in our judgments.  But I think there is more to it than that.   Follow me across the jump to read my thoughts.  Maybe a little sentimental or sappy, but it is the holiday season.  I know it is long, but I hope you enjoy the journey and that it may help you to reflect on your own experience as a fan.

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As a fan, I have consistently supported Nate.  My position has been pretty simple,  "Nate is getting good results, and he seems to have good rapport with the players, so who am I to complain."  I'm just a fan, and I am sure Nate has forgotten more Xs and Os than I've ever known.  Whatever complaints I might have about the rotation or the team's style of play were outweighed by the team's overall improvement.   Whenever I felt the urge to grouse, I tried to restrain myself with the knowledge that Nate had earned "the benefit of the doubt."

Last night's game was excruciating, the type of game that inevitably provokes a chorus of complaints about the Coach.  Generally, I hate the kind of bandwagon fans who start hurling accusations at players and coaches at the first whiff of trouble.  I prefer a bit more patience and a bit longer view.  In a long season, bad games happen.  In general, my observation would be, "limit the damage and move on."

However, when I woke this morning, and started replaying in my mind the high definition ugliness I witnessed on my TV last night, I found that my usual restraints were missing.  If this had just been one lousy game, I could dismiss it.  But as I thought back over the past couple of months, I realized that my confidence in Nate has been steadily eroding.

I'm not at a point where I think Nate should be fired, but I am at a point where "benefit of the doubt" has turned into doubt.  Follow me across the jump to my list of concerns:   

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UPDATE:  I think this thread has generated a fair amount of thoughtful discussion in it's first 150 comments.  I would like to add a couple of thoughts and clarifications about my OP:

1)  Several people have criticized my OP as being disrespectful of Steve, and looking back, I think their criticisms have some merit.  My tone was a bit snarky in places.  Steve deserves better; he has been an integral part of the teams dramatic improvement over the past two plus seasons.  He is a good guy and a solid player.  As my OP points out, his production has declined significantly (from 14.4 last season to 9.1, so far, this season), and I think that is a topic for legitimate conversation.

2)  Several thoughtful defenders of Blake have suggested that Blake is making the team better in some intangible way that is not showing up in his individual stats that are the primary focus of my OP.  This seems possible.  Blake's non-adjusted +/- stats are the best on the team.  Non-adjusted +/- is a notoriously fickle stat because there are so many uncontrolled variables that can have a huge impact on these numbers.  Generally it is considered unreliable unless the sample size is very large, but it is a possible explanation.

3)  In general, I think we should all keep an open mind on this subject.  Those of us who have doubts about the three guard line-up should wait and see what unfolds on the court.  Maybe the defensive concerns we have are overblown.  We will know more when the team plays a few games against better quality opponents.  Maybe Nate sees this is a transitional line-up.  On the other hand, Blake's defenders need to keep an open mind as well.  His production has taken the biggest decline of anyone on the team, if this trend continues, his role may need to be adjusted.  You can give him credit for past service, and you can give him credit for team success, but at some point, he has to bring it on the floor.  You can't keep a guy with a PER below ten in the starting line-up indefinitely when you have three guys who are more productive sitting on the bench.

4)  Trout's injury occurred a few hours after my OP.  Obviously, his absence is going to effect the rotation.  Let's see how Nate handles this challenge and let's see how the team responds on the floor.

BOTTOM LINE:  I think these developments all bear watching.  Maybe the team will keep winning maybe not.  Maybe Blake's play will improve, maybe not.  Let's keep our eyes on the scoreboard and the stats for a few more games and then revisit this topic when things become a bit clearer.  Again, thanks for the quality discussion. 

Is it Blake's efficient scoring?  Well no, his PER is at 9.6, which is absolutely atrocious, worse than any player on the team besides Howard.  The other candidates for minutes:  Bayless 20.6;  Martell 15.0; Rudy 14.9; Miller 13.3

Is it that Blake's outside shooting is desperately needed?  Well no, Blake is shooting at a 40% clip from three, but so is Rudy, so is Travis, and Martell isn't far behind.  Even Bayless has shown an improved outside shot making over 40% of his jumpers and his lone attempt from 3..

Is it Blake's lock-down defense?  OK, I am being a bit snarky.  No one is likely to label Blake a good defender.  Some might argue that he is the best we have at the point.  Blake's Defensive Rating of 102 is a single point better than Miller's and 3 points better than Bayless' , but whatever edge he has over Miller and Bayless is, at best, slight.  In particular, Blake tends to struggle against quick guys who penetrate.

Perhaps it is Blake's solid distribution skills?  Well surprisingly enough, Blake is the fourth best assist man on the team so far this season.  <strong>Assists Per 36 Minutes</strong>:  Miller 6.0; Roy 5.2; Bayless 5.0; Blake 4.2; Rudy 3.2.   Yes, you read that right, Bayless has more assists per minute than Blake.

Maybe it is Blake's ability to snag a few rebounds?  Well, no.  Blake is the worst rebounder of any of our perimeter players:  <strong>Rebounds Per 36 Minutes:</strong>  Bayless 4.3; Roy 4.3; Miller 4.1; Webster 4.0; Rudy 3.9; Blake  3.2.

Certainly, it must be because Blake makes so few mistakes?  Well um, er, no.  Blake has a higher Turnover Percentage than either Miller or Bayless:  Bayless 14.2;  Miller 16.0; Blake 16.2

I realize I am being a bit provocative.  Blake is a solid player and he has played a significant role in the teams success over the past two seasons.  However, Nate is the one who said that the players would determine who got minutes by their play on the floor.  Judged by the very preliminary stats I have just presented, I think it is clear that Blake has not earned the minutes he has received.

To me, it is clear that those minutes should be split between Rudy, Webster, and Bayless.  All three have been more efficient and effective than Blake.  If Nate wants to stick with a three guard line-up, Rudy seems like the obvious choice alongside Miller and Roy.  He can help spread the floor like Blake, but he is a more dynamic scorer, and he has better size to defend the two.  If Nate wants to return Roy to his natural position and give the team stronger defense at the three, Webster is the obvious choice. 

Bayless has been the team's most improved player, so far in his limited minutes.  His PER and TS% have both jumped dramatically to 20.6 and .664 respectively.  Furthermore, the stats suggest that while he is still a work in progress, his distribution skills are improving.  His Assist Rate per 36 minutes is up to 5.0 and his Turnover Rate, while still having room for improvement, has actually been the best of the three PGs.  Bayless has been the teams most efficient and effective scorer off the bench.  To me, this is a case of, "if it is working, don't mess with it."  Bayless has earned the back-up PG minutes even if Nate abandons the three guard line-up.

Nate should stick by his own motto that "minutes are earned."  By that standard Blake's minutes should be significantly reduced. 

All stats are taken from Basketball Reference.Com   http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2010.html

I know you are probably thinking Brandon Roy, with a current PER of 21.06.  You would be wrong.  The highest PER on the team through last nights game with a PER of 27.52:  Jerryd Bayless.

Yes, you read that correctly, Jerryd Bayless, who struggled last season with a PER of just over 8, has a current PER of 27.52.  Obviously, this stat doesn't mean too much when he has only played 23 minutes in two games. It does however, suggest that folks should take a look at their assumptions about Bayless.  We have heard it endlessly from Bayless' detractors, "He will never be a Point Guard.  He is nothing more than an undersized Shooting Guard, who can't shoot."

Follow me across the break to discuss what Bayless is doing, and what it might mean for the team.

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Note: After posting this Sunday afternoon, I couldn't sleep Sunday night, so I decided to expand on some of my thoughts about expected improvements. I added a 3A and a 3B, as well as 4A.  Thanks. 

Conventional wisdom in sports is often more about trying to avoid the embarrassment of being wrong, rather than taking the risk of being right.   What I mean is that most sports writers and commentators are inclined to look to the past to predict the future.  

This tendency is very much on display in numerous articles making predictions about the upcoming NBA season (for example, read the ESPN series which polled nearly 50 "experts.").  LA and SA have each won four titles in the past ten years.  So the vast majority of analysts are ready to pick one of these two to come out of the WC next year.  In the East, Boston won two years ago, Cleveland had the best record last year, and Orlando made it to the finals, so each has their advocates.  Certainly, this point of view makes a lot of sense.  These are five good teams with proven talent and a record of accomplishment in the playoffs.  It makes sense to pick these guys as the odds-on-favorites to do it again.  However, in the real world last years winners are not always next year's best teams.  How many expected the Magic to win the East?  Almost no one.  Who predicted that Denver would make the WC Finals? Almost no one.  Sportswriters rarely have the courage or insight to predict that a team will win until it already has.

This brings us to our beloved Blazers.  The conventional wisdom is that they will be good, but that they will not win in the Playoffs until..... well until, they win in the Playoffs.  Need I point out that this sort of reasoning is rather circular?  ESPN's panel of experts predicted the Blazers to finish third behind LA and SA in the regular season.  But not one person predicted that the Blazers would win the WC.  By contrast, one pundit each picked Dallas and Denver to win the West.

Marc Stein, who publishes the ESPN Power Rankings, was even less generous.  He ranked the Blazers ninth in the league, behind the big three from the east, and behind not only LA and SA, but also behind Denver and Dallas in the west. 

To me, this kind of thinking is both short sighted and cowardly.  I think the Blazer's championship window is open, now.  That doesn't mean that I think they will win this year. It does mean that I think they have a reasonable, if small, chance.  It does mean that I think the Blazers will be among the league's elite this year and in the mix come next spring.  I see LA and Cleveland as the favorites, but I think the Blazers have as much chance as the second tier of Boston, San Antonio, and Orlando.  Make the jump to read my reasons why:

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Bayless' critics seemed to be emboldened by SL and by the Miller signing.  The number of dismissive and even ridiculing comments has just spiraled out of control.  Are these comments justified?  Was Bayless' performance in SL so bad?  Is the Miller signing an indication that Bayless is on his way out of town?  My answer to all of these questions is a resounding "NO."  I acknowledge that there are very real questions about Bayless' future and legitimate concerns about his game, but we seem to have a collective case of jumping to conclusions based on very little information.  Let's discuss this after the jump.

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I have read several references to RLEC in recent days.  Those who feel strongly that the team needs to make a move, and make it now, seem to be arguing that waiting to use our cap space until closer to the 2010 trade deadline is analogous to last seasons failure to make use of RLEC. Basically, the argument is something like this,  "don't talk to me about all the bargains that are going to be available as the trade deadline approaches, I heard that line last year and nothing happened.  Get a deal done now!"

I see your point, and I feel your pain, but there are several reasons I think the current situation is different than the situation last February.  Let's break it down and discuss after the jump.

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Quick has said KP is dealing with "failure."  Canzano has said this summer has been a "disaster."  Fan anxiety is at record levels for the KP era.  What are we to make of such hyperbolic language?  Are those who defend KP, "blind homers"?  Have the team's aspirations for a Championship taken a big hit?

Let's discuss after the jump.

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It is time to take a break from all the endless speculation about the draft, free agents, and trades.  Let's talk about something that really matters:  the development of the teams outstanding collection of sophomores.  I would argue that the development of these four guys is a lot more important to the teams future than any single player we may acquire with our cap room. 

What follows started as a response to Dave's front page piece.  It just got too big to post in that thread.  I realize that it is generally bad form to duplicate front page material in a Fanpost, but I have been thinking about making a post along these lines for some time now.  Hope you all understand, and hope this provokes some good discussion.  In particular, I am interested in hearing other peoples takes on the chances that our sophomores will grow up to be the big men on campus.  More after the jump

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Crazy days here at B Edge.  Half the inmates are on the verge of calling for KP's head.  At least half seem to be upset at the prospect of Turkoglu in black and red. 

Has KP suddenly lost his touch?

On one hand, the ambivalence, and even anger, seems understandable.  Most of us went into the off-season believing that the teams top two priorities were an upgrade at the point and at back-up PF.  A few were advocating for more scoring from the SF position, but most were willing to develop Nic and Martell.  Furthermore, most of us were more concerned about improving the teams defense, rather than trying to improve its already efficient offense.

Given this context, it is not surprising that many have leaped to the conclusion that our once brilliant GM has suddenly lost his mind.  Spending all our precious cap space on a slow, 30 year old SF, who is at best inconsistent on the defensive end, doesn't seem like a very good idea.  I understand this reaction. 

Maybe a bit more humility would be advised

On the other hand, it is pretty surprising that so many B Edgers have been so quick to abandon the good ship, HMS Pritchard.  After all, KP has compiled a truly outstanding track record over the past three years.  It flat out amazes me how many fans are quick to substitute their own judgement for KP's.  Personally, I am happy to admit that KP knows a heck of a lot more than I do.  He has access to far more information than any of us.  He is the guy with the "golden gut" who has been so successful at identifying talent and figuring out how to get it to Portland. 

I may not know what the plan is, but I am sure that KP has one.  KP seems to be playing three dimensional chess when most GMs are playing checkers.  I don't want to get too carried away in my praise, KP puts on his pants one leg at a time, just like the rest of us.  It is possible that he can make a mistake, and it is even possible that he could make a very large mistake.  However, given his track record, doesn't it make sense to give KP the benefit of the doubt?  Rather than criticizing every move that we didn't anticipate, why don't we try to understand his strategy as the moves unfold?  Criticizing KP seems like the height of hubris.

What is the deal with Hedo?

As I mentioned above, Hedo seems like the answer to the wrong question.  We need defense and improved play at PG and PF.  My guess is that KP concluded that he couldn't really improve our PG situation through Free Agency.  The top three PGs are 36, 34, and 32 years old.  Given the every increasing number of uber-quick, young PGs in the league, those guys are extremely likely to struggle on the defensive end.

After thinking about it for the past couple of days, I think Hedo is an excellent example of KP thinking outside of the box.  If you can't find a traditional PG, then how about addressing a need for more play-making by acquiring a point forward?  If you throw out the position labels and start thinking about team needs, Turkoglu starts making a lot of sense in a hurry.  Team needs:

1)   Playoff experience:  more than the rest of the squad combined;

2)   An additional scorer who can get his own shot and perform under pressure;

3)   Reduce the teams over-reliance on Roy's isolation moves;

4)   An additional play-maker who can get easy shots for his teammates;

5)   A player who can run the pick and roll effectively:

Hedo is "Trout Plus."  He can score like Trout.  He can spread the floor like Trout.  He can take big shots like Trout; but he can also do much more:  he can bring the ball up court, he can drive to the hoop, above all, he can set-up his teammates.  Turkoglu has an extremely high BBIQ.  Unlike Travis who often stopped the movement of the ball, Hedo is a consummate set-up man.

KP:  "Above all else, Hedo is a player who will make his teammates better"

This is the money quote.  What does KP mean?  I think it is likely that he means the following:

1)  Hedo helps Roy:  by providing another ball-handler and scorer Hedo takes weight off of Roy and makes it harder for teams to double.  If Roy is handling PG responsibilities, Hedo can bring the ball up-court.

2)  Hedo helps Greg:  Hedo is going to get Greg easy scoring opportunities off of good passes and the side pick and roll.  D Howard is not much better in the low post than Greg, and yet he is scoring nearly 20 pts a game.  Much of the credit should go to Hedo.

3)  Hedo helps LMA:  opponents often sagged off Nic to double LMA.  They won't be able to do that now.

4)  Hedo helps Blake:  Hedo will draw much more defensive attention and more spot up shots for Steve.

5)  Hedo helps Bayless:  Bayless will have an easier time getting on the floor for minutes with the starters with Hedo able to shoulder some of the distribution responsibilities.

6)  Hedo may even help Batum:  Hedo may help mentor Nic on the offensive end and help him learn how to become our next generation point forward.

7)  Hedo will help Rudy:  by shouldering some of the play-making duties, Hedo may make it possible for the Blazers to play with Roy and Rudy together in the back-court.

The only players who will not be helped are Trout and Martell who are likely to see their minutes substantially reduced.  If Hedo is signed, Trout is almost certainly gone.  Webster is a big question mark, and the team really can't count on him until he proves the foot is healed.

All in all, I think Hedo is a brilliant, if unconventional, solution to many of the teams needs.  Yesterday on Wheels at Work, the Sacramento play by play guy said that he was certain that Turkoglu would put the team over the top.  I think that sounds about right.  If that is the future, we make look back at this as one of KP's best moves.